Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing - Amazon Wants More Power
Episode Date: June 27, 2025Amazon’s latest data center will require the same amount of electricity as one million homes. (00:21) Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger join Ricky Mulvey to discuss: - The data center spending bo...om. - Hims & Hers messy breakup with Novo Nordisk. - Overrated and underrated business stories from the year so far. (19:11) Progyny CEO, Peter Anevski, joins Tim Beyers and Holly Anderson to discuss the growth path ahead for the health benefits company. (31:28) Jason and Matt discuss Disney’s box office struggle with “Elio” and offer up two radar stocks: Uber and Otis Worldwide. Companies discussed: AMZN, HIMS, NVO, TSLA, PGNY, DIS, UBER, OTIS Host: Ricky Mulvey Guests: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, Tim Beyers, Holly Anderson, Peter Anevski Engineer: Dan Boyd Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, "TMF") do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
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Amazon needs more power. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money.
From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money.
It's the Motley Fool Money radio show. I'm Ricky Mulvey. Joining me on the internet today,
it's Matt Argesinger and Jason Moser, Motley Fool analysts, Matt Argesinger and Jason Moser.
Great to have you both here. Mr. Mulvey, good to be here. There's a big tech, and I'm going to
a macro story going on that I think we should dig into at the top of the show. And it's about
data centers, the amount of real estate and big tech spending going on here. And we have someone
who looks at tech. We have someone who looks at real estate. So we're going to get both sides
of that story. McKinsey estimates, and let's take that estimate with a grain of salt from our
friends at the consulting firm, that global data center spend will require nearly $7 trillion
in capital outlays. And the New York Times recently reported on Amazon's Project Rainier
and just the massive investment going on here. Its Indiana facility, JMO, will require enough
electricity to power one million homes. That's a lot of juice. JMO, what does Amazon want from
Project Rainier? Rainier? Is it Rainier? Rainer? Rainer. You know, Rainer. Project Rainier. Yeah.
Let's just say Project Rainier. That's what I'm going to go with. I don't know. But what is
Project Rainier? It is a massive, one-of-a-kind machine. It's a mountain, J-Mo. It's a mountain.
This is the project, though. This is the project. Yeah, it's this massive, one-of-a-kind machine,
which is ultimately designed to bring in this next generation of AI. And it's spread across
multiple data centers here in the U.S. This cluster ultimately will connect hundreds of
thousands of Amazon's Tranium 2 chips across the U.S. as well. Now, what is Tranium? Tranium is
that family of machine learning chips designed by Amazon Web Services, specifically designed for AI
training and inference. What this does, this really goes back, it takes me back to something
Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, said a little while back, where he envisions a future where data
centers are AI factories processing massive amounts of data to train and refine AI models.
And this concept of the data center being the new unit of compute, and I think we're seeing that
play out, right? I mean, Amazon's built seven data centers in Indiana alone. They're going to
be 23 more. This is just a massive, massive presence. This is also for one customer,
this one, just for Anthropic, which has the LLM cloud. And when you think about these AI
factories that are being built at these data centers, it's impossible to imagine all of the
use cases. But what do you think that Amazon is hoping that Anthropic and Amazon can achieve with
these massive centers? So I know Anthropic is going to use this cluster, right? This new AI
compute cluster to ultimately build and deploy future versions of its AI model cloud, as you
noted. Now, the project is going to provide five times more computing power compared to
Anthropic's current largest training cluster. So, I mean, that's obviously a big step up.
And when you consider Anthropic, they're trying to build an AI system that essentially matches
the human brain, and then we'll go from there. I mean, obviously, this is a big task. They have
big ambitions. They plan to train and build AI systems with this complex. But then Amazon also
notes that it should ultimately serve multiple needs. Like if when training becomes significantly
more efficient or if AI development hits a wall, I can imagine at some point we'll run into that
situation. Then, I mean, this facility, this project could be used to deliver AI technologies
to customers. So there's a big focus on efficiency here as well. And when we think about Amazon as a
whole, as a company, from a buyer, from a retail perspective, most of your interactions with that
company or buying things on the internet and having them come to your door within the next
two days. But if you own the stock, you really want to look at Amazon Web Services because that's
where most of the operating profit comes from. You're looking at these big outlays of these
massive data centers being built. Certainly, Amazon's betting on that. But do you expect
that to be true, that Amazon's going to make most of its operating profit from Amazon Web Services?
That's the profit driver for this company in the next five to 10 years?
I think that's more than likely the case. The company made close to $69 billion in operating
income in 2024, and AWS was about $40 billion of that. Around 58% of total operating profit
came from AWS. Now, it's worth noting, in 2023, it was actually 67%. That number has
pulled back a little bit. Now, obviously, they're making a lot of big investments. I
would say AWS is going to remain a very key driver. I think in time, as investments are
realize we could certainly see that number go back up. My suspicion is it will. But again,
as an investor, and I'm a shareholder of Amazon, a longtime shareholder, the beauty of Amazon
is it makes its money in a number of different ways. I mean, you just look at their ad business
alone now, tracking on around $80 billion annual run rate, and that growth rate is also tracking
with AWS. Now, I don't think it necessarily has the same market opportunity that AWS has,
but it just goes to show that Amazon has a lot of different ways it can win.
So, a lot to dig into in the New York Times story. It's titled,
At Amazon's Biggest Data Center, Everything is Supersized for AI.
If you want to get upset about a political story, one you can, is that Indiana gave Amazon a 50-5-0
year sales tax break for data center equipment. And that goes, I think, across the board for
big tech companies. So, just something to ruffle your feathers a little bit as we get to the real
estate side of this story. Matt Argesinger, we are not the first ones to notice the boom in
spending, and demand for artificial intelligence, there's a huge amount of interest among REIT
investors, real estate investment trusts. You look at something like Digital Realty Trust.
It operates data centers, and it is now trading at an earnings multiple of 150, 150 times.
You see that for a growth stock sometimes, but not for a REIT, man. What's going on here?
Well, so on the surface, Ricky, that definitely appears like an incredible valuation for digital
realty. But you have to remember with REITs, particularly one that's completing a lot of
developments, making a lot of acquisitions, they generate a lot of depreciation expense.
So when you value a REIT, you want to strip that out as well as other non-recurring expenses.
And you get at what the REIT industry calls funds from operations or FFO. That's basically the
ongoing cash flow to a REIT. And if you look at management's latest guidance, digital realty is
on track to generate around $7.10 in FFO per share this year. So that puts its earnings multiple
around $25. Still lofty for a REIT, but a lot more reasonable than $150. And maybe not so
inappropriate for a REIT that is really at or near the vanguard of this AI investment cycle
we've been talking about. Okay. So $25 is a little bit better than $150, but I still see a lot of
interest here. And I remember what happened sort of, let's say peak COVID, when there was the real
estate story of the great move to the Sunbelt, where people are going to work from home and
they're going to need apartments in the Sunbelt. It happened in Mid-America apartments. And there's
a lot of growth can get pulled forward. And then there's a leveling off sometimes for years at a
time. Could the REIT market specifically for these data centers be a little frothy right now?
any hesitation for investors looking at this space? I'd say it is a little frothy, Ricky. I
mean, and I think the apartment comp you make is a good one. So many developers rushed in to build
apartment buildings in states like Texas, Florida, Arizona, right after COVID. And that led to a huge
oversupply that has pressured rents on these buildings in those states. And it's hard to say
whether data centers are in that same kind of bubble loop, but the sheer amount of spending
to me is just extreme. It's coming from so many different players, whether it's REITs like Digital
Realty, which we talked about, you've got the hyperscalers like Amazon, Meta, and you've even
got private equity. In that New York Times report as well, you've got Blackstone, BlackRock, KKR,
making huge investments. I think taken altogether, it feels a little frothy.
You have to remember, to me, we're dealing with technology here. What if smaller, more powerful
chips come out over the next decade that just don't require the same amount of space or the
same amount of power? Could that render a lot of this build-out we're seeing obsolete? It's not an
unreasonable question. After the break, hims and hers get knocked down more than 30% on a bad
breakup. What happened there? Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
love with added B vitamins like coffee plus B12 to help support immune function and coffee plus B6
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Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Ricky Mulvey, joined by Matt Argersinger and Jason
Moser. Listeners and Matt and Jason, before we get back into the show, I just want to note that
next Friday will be my last time hosting Motley Fool Money. More to come, but for now, I just
want to express my gratitude to this organization, to you, the listener, for making us a part of your
daily routine in some cases, and just say that I will dearly miss working with the good people
at The Fool every day, and that I'm optimistic about the future. I'm excited about what's to
come. No good way to get to the next story for that, but I will try. Let's get to this
HIMS and HERS story. Earlier this week, online healthcare company HIMS and HERS dropped by more
than 30% after Novo Nordisk accused the company of illegally selling knockoff versions of Wegovy.
HIMS and HERS CEO Andrew DeDum biting back, responding on X that, quote, Novo Nordisk's commercial team increasingly pressured us to control clinical standards and steer patients to a go view regardless of whether it was clinically best for patients, end quote.
This breakup comes shortly after the partnership was announced.
JMO, why was this partnership such a big deal for HIMS and HERS in the first place?
So, you know, it gave them access to a leading GLP-1 drug, which I think enhanced credibility,
which I think could help the company achieve its long-term growth plans.
And I think it was some validation of the model, right?
Now, on the flip side, and HIMSS is certainly not the only company that does this, but I
mean, they have a focus as well on these compounded drugs, which serves a purpose for sure, particularly
early in shortages, but they're also not FDA approved. So, there are questions as to whether
they're actually serving the patient's best interests. And I think when you put all of this
together, it just gives investors at least a little pause. I'm not saying it's something
fatal for the company, but I think it gives investors a little bit of pause there.
Dave Moore, the EVP of Novo's U.S. operations, said as much regarding the decision. He said,
I quote, we expected that the efforts towards compounding personalization would diminish over
time. When we didn't see that, we had to make a choice on behalf of patients. It's just very
interesting to see him's perspective there and Novo's perspective there when it comes to the
best interest of the patients. I guess we will see how this evolves. It's worth noting, give
him a lot of credit. Shares have been on a tear recently, and it's easy to see why. The company's
grown revenue, annualized 80% over the last five years. I mean, it's just been on fire.
This is a company I've taken a look at. And the bull case that I've heard, there's a lot of
excitement. The bull case for hims and hers is that it could pull like a Netflix or Spotify
for direct-to-consumer healthcare with personalized treatments. And you've also
got an AI-driven platform. We're redefining healthcare. Are you buying the bull case?
I'm sort of on the fence with this one. I think it's certainly possible. But they need
to be careful how they go about it. This is something that comes with some reputational
risk. If they come to this platform that just provides non-FDA-approved compounded drugs
and utilizes questionable marketing tactics, that could absolutely scare people away. That
sort of isn't the best look when it comes to healthcare. They'll just need to be very
thoughtful, I think, about their next steps and how they ultimately communicate with not only
their prospective customers, but also investors. Because part of their growth strategy is explicitly
stated in building partnerships and expanding globally. And if they're not able to achieve
that, that's going to be a big problem for the growth picture going forward.
Matt, any concerns when you hear X stock is the next Netflix, the next Spotify?
You always have to be careful with those, Ricky. I mean, it wasn't, I think,
more than several years ago when investors were calling Nikola the next Tesla. Remember Nikola,
it demonstrated its electric trucks by rolling them down hills. There have been so many companies
I've fallen for this over the years that have compared themselves or called themselves the
next Berkshire Hathaway. I have a long list here, I won't get into it. But I've learned,
and i think jason has as well when you say xyz is the next abc you're almost always better off
holding or buying abc i feel like you were getting ready to say big laurie holdings
serious holdings by the way when a lamper was running it yeah hey don't forget boston omaha
had a guy running it who was was it warren buffett's great nephew i think he's still
running it i think he's the guy who's now the only ceo but yeah not definitely not the next
Berkshire Hathaway. That's, that's, that's a real stretch. I got to start publishing who my cousins
are on the show. All right. I want to do this story and I'm stealing it from a podcast. I really
like Matt Bell and he's the town and the midpoint of the year, which we're at about at, they looked
at sort of the overrated and underrated business stories of the year. So I thought for entertainment
for them, but I thought it would be fun to do it more holistically for business stories. Um,
I'm going to stay on Matt with this. So Matt, first up, what is your overrated story of the
year so far. All right. I don't want to ruffle any political feathers here, but Doge. Remember
Doge? I do. I mean, there was supposed to be, I don't know, $2 trillion in savings, and it became
$1 trillion in savings, and they got rid of the guidance. But I mean, I don't know. Most reports
right now say that the Doge, by the way, the Department of Government Efficiency previously
run by Elon Musk, it's cut somewhere under $100 billion in costs. And there's even some reports
out there that suggests that it's actually cost taxpayers more, some of the efforts because of
the inefficiencies and some of the replacement costs. Again, I don't want to get into politics
at all, but I think clearly there was both significant hype and significant concern
about Doge. It basically has turned into a nothing burger, as far as I can tell.
I went to a crypto convention earlier this year, and they had a McLaren that had the Doge logo
on it, and then a stand that was just for the Department of Government Efficiency at
this cryptocurrency convention. Matt, that is when I first started to have
my doubts about that project. Jason, what is your overrated story of the year so far?
Well, I'm sure this is going to ruffle a few feathers too, but I got to tell you,
that Tesla robo taxi thing just seemed like a dud, man. Musk has been promising this thing
for years. Granted, he's delivering it in some capacity. Obviously, he never really hits his
timeline. But all the way, he's been ripping on geofencing. They got to use geofencing.
He's been ripping on having human supervisors in cars. He had to have human supervisors in cars.
The rollout was to a very limited invite-only audience. You have to assume that's a very
biased audience in Tesla's favor. They're going to say it was great no matter what.
But the videos that I've seen, the accounts of misfires, some of the things these cars did,
I think just demonstrates that they still have a lot of work to do. So I'm not saying they won't
get there eventually. I want to take my hat off to them for doing what they're doing. I think it's
important technology. But man, it's just going to be a while. And that event, I thought, was just
overhyped and underdelivered. I'm going to give you a quick one that's non-musk,
and that's the rise of investor interest in e-vattles, these personal air electric taxis.
there's companies bidding up these companies but there's investors bidding up these companies by
the billions for companies that don't have revenue and a lot of big questions about the uh regulatory
landscape for putting these electric air vehicles in cities and this is one of those things you hear
about self-driving cars crash what happens when that's an air taxi okay that's a that's a negative
story let's go to underrated stories of the year so far matt what's your underrated story of the
years so far. All right. This is going to be strange based on what J-Mo said, but my underrated
story is actually RoboTaxi. Yes. I love it. Not because, I mean, I don't want to, I'm not
reversing this here. I think, yeah, the Tesla rollout was pretty much a disaster. But I think
the concept in general is going to be hugely life-changing. I mean, if in five years,
most of the taxi rides you get in a major city are through an autonomous vehicle, I think that
has major implications for life, for the economy, et cetera. So I actually think it's, even though
it's all over the headlines. We've talked about it. It seems underrated still.
And JMO, as we start to wrap up, you got an underrated story of the year so far.
Sure. Yeah. We talked about this a few weeks back, but I think we're starting to see the IPO
market open up a little bit. And I think there's some potential for some above average activity
here in the back half of the year, looking at technology, healthcare, and fintech. We've got
some drivers there, private equity looking to cash out, stabilizing interest rates. It looks like
relatively strong market performance, which could help drive that demand. So it just doesn't seem
like something that's being talked about a whole lot. But I expect activity to pick up here in the
back half of the year going into 2026. There's been some big IPOs so far this year.
Yeah. My quick one will be the return of speculative bubbles. I think there's a lot
of speculative investing action going on in 2025. It seems a little like 2021. All right. Up next,
we are checking in on a company solving one of the most important health care problems.
Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
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Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.
I'm Ricky Mulvey.
Pete Anefsky is the CEO of Progeny, a company solving a life-creating problem.
Progeny specializes in fertility benefits, especially for self-insured companies.
Anefsky joined Motley Fool Senior Analyst Tim Beyers and Holly Anderson, who works on
our benefits team, to talk about Progeny's growth path ahead and the company's unique
partnership strategy. Pete, so great to see you. Thank you for
being here. We really appreciate it. We gave you a quick intro for what Progeny is, but
we would love to hear, before we get into the opportunity, how you see Progeny. How
do you describe it um and again thank you for being here yeah um so first of all uh thank you
as well i was uh really looking forward to this for a couple reasons one um as you guys uh already
mentioned uh you're a partner and you offer progeny to your employees we're really proud of
that um but also just for my own personal success feel or achievement uh i i discovered progeny
personally not progeny sorry molly fool personally in the in the early 90s used it a lot love it
loved it as a service. And so to come full circle and be invited to do an interview on the platform
on the show is really a fun fact for me personally. So thank you.
So Progeny is a global leader in women's health and family building solutions. We focus on areas
that are either overlooked or underfunded by managed care. And we address issues that
fill those gaps. And so that's generally what we do across all of our products. We started first
in the facility and family building solutions product step, but then have expanded beyond that.
So we're really excited to talk about what we did. Yeah, we're going to get into more of that
because you're right. There's been some expansion in what you do, but I want to just start. We're
going to get a little bit more into your story in a minute. But before we do that, let's get
into the progeny story, this is how I've heard you describe it, Pete, is that the opportunity is
there are about 105 million covered lives that you could address. And you're currently addressing,
these numbers may have changed, fools, so don't hold them to me exactly, but roughly 6.7 million
of those, so about 6.5%, 6.4%. So how much do you need to invest to scale that? Because this does
sound like, if I'm an investor, this is a scale story. This is a benefit that we could scale to
a lot more people. What do you need to do to scale that? What does that cost?
Yeah, it's a great question. So it's not necessarily a cost answer. It's a constant
evangelizing and creating awareness around and understanding of why this benefit is a top five
benefit that your employees want. Millennials, as an example, in the workforce are the largest
portion of the population today in the U.S., right? Millennials are also the age group that
will use a fertility benefit. The average age of a woman going through fertility treatments that's
infertile is 36 years old, right? So it's an important part of your workforce. It's usually
your middle management. It's usually the blue that holds a lot of things together. And so it's
a really important benefit. And it's one that, you know, based on benefit consultant surveys
that employees look for when they're looking for a job because it's that important to them. So it's
a really important area. So it's constantly making sure, constantly competing with other decisions
that companies are making relative to managing benefits overall, relative to addressing medical
cost inflation, relative to anything that's sort of out there that they're struggling with. And so
it's a prioritization exercise for them. And so whether they do it today or do it down the road,
more and more companies are adding the benefit and will keep doing that. And as more and more
companies offer the benefit, those other companies who realize they should be offering the benefit
but aren't sort of, you know, come on board. So it's constantly educating the market.
One thing that stands out to me about Progeny is the unique smart cycle
approach to fertility benefits. So I'm curious, when you're looking at potential partnerships,
or acquisitions, what's your process for identifying opportunities that will enhance
both progeny's services and financial strength? And then also, what ensures that these partnerships
stay true to progeny's mission? I love the question. So we leverage partnerships
in many different ways, right? We leverage them relative to go-to-market. So in terms of financial
strength, we leverage them and go-to-market. And so we have partnerships with many of the
constituents within healthcare. So, for example, we've been adding a lot of payer partnerships.
So, we've taken what are competitors, and now they become partners. And, you know, the payers
recognize that we have a solution that's sort of differentiated versus what they're offering.
And it's a function of the fact that they're dealing with managing thousands of conditions,
and we're focused on one, and so could do a much more comprehensive job. You know, and as a result,
you know, the most recent announcement around that was our agreement with Cigna, right? And so
that's one of the partnerships. We use partners relative to advancing our ability to go to market
with products to the extent that we can do that. And so whether they're partners or an acquisition
opportunity, we'll look for those opportunities to the extent that they're on our roadmap and
things that we're looking at, or if it makes sense with the audience that we address today,
um we will add those as well um and so it's it's a you know on a on a product basis it's a classic
buy versus build or partner um and then and then in terms of go-to-market um uh relative to the
overall offering it's leveraging you know the the partners that are out there in the healthcare
ecosystem i think one of the the tough things is progeny seems to be one of those benefits and and
Holly, maybe you could speak to this first. It's one of those benefits that doesn't come up until
somebody has a question about, hey, does the Motley Fool offer this? And then we introduce
them the progeny and it's amazing and they end up doing it. So there's like, you talked about this
in terms of evangelizing, but Holly, what do we do on our end? How do we get more of our people
sort of digging into the progeny benefits? We do a lot of training, education. We've sent
out postcards, or actually we didn't. Progeny sent it out on our behalf for Women's Month.
That was awesome. We promote it to our prospective employees. And I say that because we've had people
join The Fool and start using progeny the very next day. So we've had to be very quick on getting
them enrolled so that they can start and now one person in particular you know she has a baby now
because of it so i love the benefit and i think that it just really it's a benefit forever in a
sense that once they have a baby from the motley fool as support of progeny that even 10 20 years
down the line they'll look back at the motley fool and progeny and think look what they gave me
We do. I think my passion and our passion as a company also helps because we're always sharing.
It's a great benefit. It is. And I have to say, I won't go into the details for privacy reasons,
but I have recently held a baby that came into the world with the help of Progeny. And it's
pretty amazing. Peter, I want to come back to a bit of financial reality. And again,
fools, you can ask questions about this. This is a rule breakers pick, and it hasn't quite worked
out yet. I want to talk a little bit about unit economics. You've already answered some of this,
so I'm going to flip it a little bit. You've talked about expanding the opportunity.
Could you help us understand what's the situation that really is ideal for progeny,
What do you want to see? Is it over time, a progeny client tends to add more services and
spend more money? In terms of a unit economic benefit, staying power, aging is something that
really works best for you. If you have a client that has been with you for five years, the margins
on that client tends to get better? Or is it something else? Help me understand the unit
economics. How do you grow, or maybe put it this way, expand the cash flow that you're already
generating today? How do we get it to even higher cash flow margins, say, over the next
10 years? What needs to happen for that to come to be? Yeah. So there's a couple of things that
are really important. I'll also throw in the macro trend that are going on that's helping
fuel the need for our services, right? The fertility rate overall nationally has been
declining, continues to decline each and every year since 2000. The age of a woman having a baby
in the US, in the latest reported data from the CDC, more babies were born to women over 30 than
under for the first time. And the average age of a woman, there's a decline in number of babies
being born in the U.S. over the last 10 years of roughly 1.7%. But the 35 and over population has
been growing at a compounded rate over the last 10 years of 2.5%. And again, the average age of
a woman going through infertility and needing fertility treatment is 36 years old. So that
macro trend is fueling the need overall. The trend with our clients since the beginning is a couple
of things. One, we have a 99% retention rate and have had that for years. That's sort of unheard
of in the healthcare space. There's a reason for that. We provide a great service and we help a lot
of people out and we're very differentiated. But the second piece of that, and The Motley Fool is
an example of it, is the product expansion. So every year, roughly 20, and last year it was 30%
of our clients add to the benefits somehow. They expand either smart cycles. They'll maybe add
egg freezing and fertility preservation if they didn't have it. They'll add adoption and
surrogacy if they didn't have it. And in the latest year, on top of those things,
they also added menopause and pregnancy and postpartum, right? And so, it's all of the above,
right? As time goes on, it's continuing to provide a differentiated value-based
service that changes people's lives and create more and more of those solutions so that you
have a stickier overall client base. And on top of it, continue to create products that are useful
and address a larger population, larger portion of the employer's population so that more and more
problems get solved and we help more and more people. And then obviously the financials take
care of themselves when that happens. As always, people on the program may have
interests in the stocks they talk about in The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for
or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. Our personal finance
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applies deal in september 10th welcome back to motley fool money i'm ricky mulvey joined again
by matt argersinger and jason moser fools a good time to check in on the summer box office season
well underway and one surprise to me is this opening of elio which was the pixar movie this
summer usually that does really well it's a family-friendly original film original film
from disney brought in 21 million at the domestic box office office this past weekend matt it turns
out audiences they're not asking for original movies they want ip this is interesting to me
because there's parts of disney where they've done really well they had inside out to last year one
of the biggest animated films of all time but it's definitely had some stumbles lately i'm a disney
shareholder how should i take in this news if at all it's not great news but disney has such a vast
and diversified portfolio now in the past it really needed like that once a year or once every
two year pixar film to really hit now it can have a clunker like leo as long as there is inside out
two moana two or even the thunderbolts movie earlier this year was did a lot better than
expected so i think there's a lot more though riding on this fantastic four film coming out
next month because if it's a hit it will set the stage for kind of that next leg of mcu films over
the next several years which are going to be a lot more vital to disney but i don't think elio is
going to be uh going to mean much which are no longer guarantees by the way so thunderbolts
which was a good movie critics liked it audiences liked it i saw it i had a good time at the
Thunderbolts. And, you know, you would think, oh, with Guardians of the Galaxy, you can get
people in to see new superheroes. Not really. The film didn't perform that well.
Right. So, yeah, we'll see. Yeah. And I think that's also a function of just it's a different
time. Right. I mean, getting people out into the theaters is just a tougher proposition
because we have so many other things competing for our attention today. So, I mean, it's not
just making a great movie doesn't seal the deal, right? You still got to get butts in seats. And
that's just more difficult to do today than it was 10 years ago. And great original movies can
still bring people in checkout centers. It is awesome. Question before we get to radar stocks,
though, if you could buy stock in one movie coming out this year, even in this tough environment,
J-Mo, what stock are you buying?
Okay, so is this a movie that has been released or has yet to be released?
Because it feels like, to me, it begins and ends with the Mission Impossible movie with
Final Reckoning, like Tom Cruise is single-handedly saving the industry on his own.
But I will say, if you're looking for one that is to be released, I'm going a little
under the radar here.
Spinal Tap 2, the end continues.
I think it comes out in September.
Turn it back up to 11, Ricky.
matt i thought it was pretty clear we were doing movies yet to be released all right
because just want to make sure less information about it but moser wanted to cheat a little bit
that's okay by picking a tom cruise movie that's already come out this year spinal tattoo is my
final answer fair enough matt what stock are you buying i'm buying superman ricky next month james
gunn i mean this is a pivotal movie to revive the dc universe film franchise which actually
has never been that great. I really hope it succeeds. I also have a vested interest as a
big owner of Superman comic books. I have a lot riding on this release next month. I'm pumped.
I'm excited. For my pick, I'm taking one battle after the other. 100 million plus Paul Thomas
Anderson movie, but I think that movie rules. I hope it does. I really do. Let's get to radar
stocks. You'll pitch a stock that you are interested in, and then Dan Boyd, our man behind
the glass will hit you with a question, concern, or a backhanded compliment. J-Mo, what you got
this week? Yeah, I'm going to go with Uber, ticker UBER. We were talking earlier about Tesla's
robo-taxi event. And on Tuesday, Waymo robo-taxis became available to Uber users in Atlanta
under much less fanfare. And that's honestly kind of one of the things I like about Waymo is they're
under that shelter of alphabet. So they don't really have to get out there and sell the sizzle.
I mean, they just kind of get to work and do what they can.
But it seemed like it was received well.
It covers approximately 65 square miles around the city, and it's something that is available
to Uber passenger rides only, not Uber Eats deliveries.
But, I mean, when you look at Uber, we talk about how autonomy is going to disrupt them,
perhaps.
It's very clear that Dara Khashoggi is completely in on the autonomous future.
And I personally would not look at Uber and say, well, this is the company that's being
disrupted. They're a company that's participating. And they're participating today by the partnership
with Waymo, for example. And we'll see how that all goes. But I don't think this is a
winner-take-all market. I assume Tesla will succeed. I also assume Waymo succeeds. And I
think that Uber succeeds by virtue of however it approaches the space. And right now, it's
via that partnership. But see, the most recent quarter they had, they grew bookings 18%.
They grew trips 18%. Revenue was up 17%. I just think this company has so many different ways to
win and very forward-looking. So, I think it's one worth keeping on the radar.
Dan, question about Uber. Yeah, Jason, how's that total addressable
market looking these days? Is it still the entire population of planet Earth?
I think that's a fair assessment. They just bought this 85% stake in a Turkish food delivery
platform called Trendy. I'll go for $700 million. Hey, they're going global, Dan.
Matt, what you got this week? I hope it's not a Turkish food delivery platform.
No. Otis Worldwide, ticker O-T-I-S. This is, of course, the elevator escalator company. It was
spun out of United Technologies in 2020. So, it's actually only been a public independent company
for about five years now. As you guessed, it's a leading manufacturer. And this is key, though,
leading maintainer of elevator and escalator systems around the world. 20% market share of
new equipment sales. But here's what I like best, 2.4 million unit maintenance portfolio.
So, that means Otis has this very large stable base of units that has to keep in working order
if you're a landlord or a major building manager, you've got to keep those elevators running. And
so you need Otis to come out there and service them. And with Otis in service and modernization,
which is about 65% of revenue, 24% operating margins on that business. So it's a great
business, great recurring revenue business. The dividend yield is only about 2%, but they're
raising that dividend by quite a lot. They've grown it by 110% over the last five years,
also buying back a lot of stock. Dan, quick question about Otis.
Yeah, I think with respect to Uber, but I think that if Otis disappeared tomorrow, I think the impact would be a little bit bigger than if Uber did.
So I think I know what's going on your watch list this week, but Dan Boyd, what stock is making your watch list?
Sometimes we go up, sometimes we go down, but this week we're going with Otis.
I love it.
I hate it. I hate it. You can love it, but I hate it.
Okay, that's the end of the show.
I'm Ricky Mulvey. Thank you to Jason Moser. Thank you to Matt Argesinger.
And thank you to Dan Boyd for mixing the show.
