Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing - Apple vs. Uncle Sam
Episode Date: February 19, 2016Apple squares off with the FBI. Investors bid Priceline higher. Wal-Mart stumbles. And Boston Beer falls flat. Our analysts discuss those stories and share three stocks on their radar. Plus, hedge fun...d manager Jeff Gramm shares some insights from his new book, Dear Chairman: Boardroom Battles and the Rise of Shareholder Activism. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Argersinger, and from Motley Fool Deep Value, Ron Gross. Good to see you, as always, gentlemen.
We've got the latest on tech, travel, insurance, and more. We will take a closer look at the
rise of activist shareholders, and as always, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks
on our radar. But we begin this week with the growing battle between Apple and the federal
government. At the request of the FBI, a federal judge has ordered Apple to provide new software
to help the FBI unlock the encrypted iPhone of one of the killers in the recent shootings
in San Bernardino, California. CEO Tim Cook says the FBI's request is unprecedented and
wrote an open letter to customers saying that Apple's opposition is not something the company
takes lightly, but they do believe this is an overreach by the U.S. government.
And Ron Gross, I'll just start with you. This is really tough, because when you step back
and look at it, both the FBI and Apple are doing what they are supposed to be doing.
Yeah, I agree. It's very tough. And I do see both sides of this. I don't see it as being
cut and dry. And I realize it's a slippery slope from Apple's perspective that they
really don't want to go down. I do believe, I think I believe, that there should be a way for
Apple to comply in this one particular case without putting all of our civil liberties at
risk. That might be naive. Again, the slippery slope might come into play here. But I think
they should be able to take care of that. And I actually think the fact that we're operating
under a law written in 1789, the All Writs Act here, may mean that it's time to kind
of come up with some new laws to address the world we live in now.
O' There weren't smartphones back then, or not?
You gotta pivot.
And probably a constitutional lawyer or somebody like that would say the same privacy
rules apply whether it's through technology or carrier pigeon, but I still think it's
probably time to update our laws.
Yeah, I mean, I agree. I think Ron is spot on. This is a very difficult one to sit
here and noodle, and both parties are probably right to some degree. I do think Apple, there's
no question to me that Tim Cook is absolutely taking the right step here in regard to the
business itself. I mean, Apple, beyond the fact that they make most of their money from
their iPhones, protecting that brand is going to be paramount here. And really, getting
out there and taking a stance in what they really believe in and what really matters
to them. And what Tim Cook has done is, he's gotten out there and said, listen, above all,
we care about our customers. Our customers come first. Obviously, we care about national
security interests like that. However, we need to go through the proper legal channels
here. And I think, like Ron said, each party involved here, they're going to do what they
need to do. And I think that as long as they allow this process to play out, it will certainly
be political, but as long as they allow it to play out via the judicial system, which
which it most certainly will go, then at least if Apple is required to do something here
by law, you can't go back on the message, the stance that they've already taken. And
I think that customers, believers in Apple, Apple enthusiasts, investors, I think they'll
all remember that. And Apple's not out in front by themselves,
Matty. I mean, yes, they're out in front, but you look at companies like Google and
Facebook and they are absolutely backing Apple on this one.
Right. And I understand that. I mean, we're dealing with companies that have a tremendous
amount of our own personal data, either on servers or on phones. And so there's the idea
that if I'm a customer of these companies, I want to have some security in what I'm doing
online or where I'm going. I mean, people can hack my phone. I have nothing on my phone
worth taking. But I wonder, to Ron's point about coming up with a solution, I wonder
if it comes down to really ownership here. I mean, I have ownership of my phone, so I
don't want anyone to hack my phone. I wouldn't mind if they did. But in this case, we do
have the federal government is in possession of this phone. And so in a way, they're asking,
saying, hey, Apple, can you help us hack our own phone? I wonder if there's just a legal
way to make that happen without jeopardizing everyone else's phones or everyone else who
owns their own personal data. If this, in fact, goes all the way
to the Supreme Court, we're talking about a process that will take years, not months
or weeks. A lot remains to be played out here, but let's bring it back to the business. What,
if anything, do you think this will do to either iPhone sales, because certainly the
unspoken advertisement here is that iPhone's security is top-notch. What, if anything,
does this do to Apple's brand? I don't think it has much effect at all,
because if Apple is forced to comply, that means theoretically all cell phone companies
would be forced to comply and they would all be in the same boat. I know from my perspective,
Either way this goes, it won't make me give up my iPhone, it won't make me not get the
new one when it comes out. I'm going to stick with it, regardless.
Yeah, I think that's right. Apple, as we know, is a big part of the smartphone
market here, domestically speaking. But when we look at it globally speaking, Android devices
have 85% of the market share out there, and as a matter of fact, they're picking up share.
So, Apple actually is under pressure here. Again, I think that all goes back to the importance
here and how Tim Cook reacted from the very beginning here. It would have been easy to
jump the gun and say, oh, in the interest of national security, we're going to do this.
Instead, cooler heads prevailed. I think they're playing this out the right way. And I think that
regardless of what happens here down the line, it's going to be something that ultimately is
out of their control, and the brand will have been protected.
And at only 10 times earnings, I think it's a really nice pie right now.
All right, let's get to some of the week's earnings reports. Walmart's fourth quarter
profits came in higher than expected, but revenue was light, and the stock taking a hit this week,
Yes. Revenue was up just 2.2%, which they're not exactly as wrong as firing on all cylinders
at Walmart. Really, the story here for me is about the e-commerce sales. Up just 8%
in the fourth quarter. If you look at overall e-commerce sales in the holiday quarter, they
were up 14%. Walmart's really falling behind. We know what Amazon did in the latest quarter,
which is up 24% on our North American sales. For me, it's about Walmart being many days
late and unfortunately many, many billions of dollars are short when it comes to their
e-commerce strategy. I just don't see them being so far behind the game now that they're
ever going to be able to catch up. And then you have, of course, the larger business.
Stores are closing. The international expansion is not working out in a lot of areas as planned.
So there's just not a lot to get excited about Walmart. And the stock is admittedly cheap.
They raised their dividend again. Still, I don't see them being a market-beater long-term.
They have been upfront about the fact that they are investing in their employees
with higher wages, and they are investing in their e-commerce platform. But to your point,
you look at the trend over the last two years of how e-commerce growth has just methodically
flowing, and they've got to turn that around by the end of this year.
Absolutely. I mean, if you look at their 8% growth in the last quarter, they started the year,
year-over-year growth, around 16%. So, that's a sharp deceleration. And so,
if that trend continues, you have to wonder, really, are they ever going to gain meaningful
market share in e-commerce? It doesn't sound like it.
Big week for the Priceline Group. Fourth quarter profits came in higher than expected,
and they issued some upbeat guidance for the concurrent quarter. Shares up more than 17%
this week. That's a big move for a stock like that.
Hey, I mean, Airbnb is getting all of the attention here lately. But I think this release
from Priceline was their shot across the bow. They're saying, hey, we're doing just fine
over here. And all of the numbers lead us to believe that is the case. Gross profit
it was up 23%, excluding currency effects. And when we look at room nights booked, which
is a good indicator of demand, globally, room nights booked in the quarter were up 27% over
the same quarter last year. Now, we know that Booking.com is the big growth engine behind
here. They have more than 850,000 hotels underneath their umbrella now. Just recently signed up
with TripAdvisor to start bringing more of that inventory to their platform, and they
We're talking about some good brand exposure there as well. It's interesting. We've seen
Booking.com and Priceline really start focusing more and more on the business customer, which
represents about 20% of their business now. I think that's important, because I think
that's a demographic that is less likely to go the route of an Airbnb, because like it
or not, I think Airbnb is here to stay. Airbnb is doing very well, and I think they're doing
very well for a reason, particularly as younger generations come up in this sharing economy.
It presents a nice, attractive alternative. But I think it's also going to make hotel
operators step up their game in order to keep their business going. I think the consumers
ultimately win here. And I think that Priceline and Booking.com are in a wonderful spot as
being the go-to resource where all of these hotels want to list their inventory.
This is a stock that trades. One share goes for more than $1,250. How much of the
interest in this stock has to do with the fact that it does have that high price tag,
and so for a lot of investors, they're just going to stay away? In a weird way, it artificially
depresses demand for the stock. It absolutely could. It is going
to keep a number of investors from even considering it, because we get that question all the time,
whether it's a stock split or not. You have to remember, it's the same size pizza, it's
just the amount of pieces. It's the number of pieces it's cut into. I wouldn't be surprised
at some point to see Priceline split the stock, given where it's gotten. But by the same token,
this is a management team that thinks very long-term. They would rather have investors
in the company versus traders. You see other businesses like Markel, Berkshire Hathaway,
to a degree, play that same game. I think they're OK just growing that long, patient
shareholder base.
Shares of Nvidia up more than 10% on Thursday after the graphics chipmaker showed
some nice profit and revenue growth in the fourth quarter, and that really puts the bow
on a good 2015 for them.
Very good 2015, yeah. They beat expectations really across the board. Nvidia's
lucky in the sense that they're really on the forefront of some very exciting trends.
If you look at, Nvidia's famous for its graphics chips. Virtual reality, we know, is there's
a lot of excitement there. And you can imagine that Nvidia's chips are going to be powering
a lot of the high-end video rendering that's happening in virtual reality.
And, of course, on the automotive side, you know, autonomous driving,
they're in the Tesla Model S and Tesla Model X.
They power the panels and a lot of the video displays,
but they're also driving the technology towards autonomous driving.
Revenue in that segment was up 68% year over year.
So I'm not generally a fan of chip companies.
I think they play on a very poor part of the value chain.
But now and then you'll find a company like NVIDIA,
which is really just positioned in all the right places.
And I think NVIDIA is one that is.
We have seen chip companies, smaller players, who are heavily levered to one single company.
Apple comes to mind.
Is NVIDIA pretty well diversified in terms of who they're working with?
They are well diversified.
I mean, so they, you know, you do have certain companies like Dell, for example, which has
been a big customer in the past.
But really, they've diversified their business enough.
I mean, between supercomputers, autonomous driving, internet of things, which they have
applications for, of course, video gaming.
There are a lot of different places.
So we're very well diversified.
Coming up, we're talking retail, beer, and the sexy world of farm equipment.
Stay right here.
This is Motley Fool Money.
I've got five dollars and it's Saturday night.
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.
Chris Hill here in studio with Jason Moser, Matt Argesinger, and Ron Gross.
Not a happy holiday for J.W. Nordstrom.
Fourth quarter sales up just 4%.
Had to do a lot of discounting, Ron.
And that is not something, I don't think that's the first thing people think about when they think about Nordstrom.
No, I know. And it is a tough business, as you say.
Comp sales just up 1%, very lackluster performance.
The strength continues to come from their online business, I guess not shockingly.
That's where everyone's strength seems to be coming from.
Their business was up 11% for the quarter.
And their discount stores, not the main stores that did some discounting,
but their actual discount stores, Rack and Hot Look, up 12%.
So those businesses were quite strong. The bigger stores, not so much. 2016 guidance is weak. It
looks like department stores across the board are going to continue to struggle. Gas is cheap,
but people don't seem to want to be headed to the malls to buy stuff. So that'll be a challenge for
companies like Nordstrom. Historically, is Nordstrom good with
inventory management? Because it seems like at least part of the story with this holiday quarter
was struggling with inventory.
I think typically they're quite strong with it. Every now and then there's a stumble.
Retail is a tough, tough business. Sometimes you just have to put things on promotion to
blow that inventory out. You really have no choice. But historically, yes, they're quite
strong.
O' Is it hot or is it haute?
It's haute. Hot.
O' I think it's both.
Is it interchangeable? I mean, I'm no fashionista, don't get me wrong.
O' Don't sell yourself short, man.
I think it's French, so it depends if you're saying it with a French accent or an American accent.
Yeah, let's not go the French accent route.
Boston Beer Company's fourth quarter profits came in higher than expected,
but it was also the fourth quarter in a row that overall sales fell,
and the stock taking a hit this week, Jason.
Chris, these earnings are making me thirsty.
To me, I think the way to look at Boston Beer,
I think this is a very good comparable to this, is when we look at restaurants.
When we look at restaurants and we focus on those comp numbers, with Boston Beer,
their comp numbers are depletions. We see that metric released quarter in and quarter out.
That's just sales from the distributors to the retailers. For the longest time,
the growth story has really gained traction and depletions have continued to do very well.
That's starting to edge the other way now. We talk about some businesses being victims of their
own success. It could be argued that to a degree here. They are also victims of a far
more competitive craft beer industry than was even five years ago. With that said, I
still think there is a lot of reason to be optimistic about the business, about where
they're going. They'll continue to bring new brands and new concepts into their portfolio
of offerings. They are coming up on lapping a very tough comp with the cider category,
which traditionally has done very well for them as well. So, they're not sitting still.
They're bringing new products to market. I think the Nitro offering that they just brought
was really pretty interesting. I've tried the Nitro Coffee Stout. Can't recommend it
highly enough, guys.
Thanks for doing that research.
The Rebel Grapefruit IPA, another good one. Not bad at all. So, all in all,
this is a very, very high-quality business. And I think it's a testament, really, to the
price that we paid for it when we added it to MDP. We got it at a great price, and ...
Jason definitely jumped at the research opportunity for Boston Beer.
It's still very enthusiastic about the five-year outlook for this company.
Way to go the extra mile. Specialty insurer Markel, not the flashiest company
in the world, but fourth quarter results were solid once again, and capping another strong
year for them. Definitely a strong year. It's been
a tough year to be an insurance company. It's been a tough several years, actually. Very
competitive pricing, low interest rates. But Markel turned it a good year. They're not
growing premiums in all their insurance segments, and that's partly because they're pulling
back on a lot of their lines, a lot of property and casualty lines, that they've just become
unprofitable. And we like Markel doing that because it shows that they're disciplined.
And so, if you look at their combined ratio, which is a measure of profitability in the
insurance business, anything below 100% means insurance companies are profitable. And Markel
turned in a ratio of 89% in 2015. That's down from 96% in 2014. So, that's great. So, definitely
making money on the insurance side. On the investment side, not so great of a year. The
The equity portfolio was down 2.9%, but that was offset by gains on the fixed income side,
so overall pretty flat there.
Really exciting, though, is the Markle Ventures business, which is kind of like Berkshire
Hathaway's portfolio businesses.
Markel's got a private equity sleeve of their business where they buy majority stakes for
whole positions in small businesses.
Markle Ventures' revenue hit $1 billion for the first time in 2015, and pre-tax profits
rising to $90 million.
We like to call Markel the baby Berkshire, and I think that's very apt in this case.
had a great year, very disciplined, solid investing track record. And this Markel Ventures
business is really taking off.
Yeah, we talked about Berkshire Hathaway and Kendra Morgan. I thought it was also
interesting, I saw in Markel's 13F, in their investment portfolio, they just added shares
of Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook. So, it looks like Tom Gaynor is channeling his inner
fool.
Yeah, he doesn't shy away from those technology names that Buffett does. I have
to admit, essentially with Amazon, which we recently added to, I think that's a good buy.
Deere and Company is the world's largest maker of farm equipment, and it just got a little smaller.
First quarter profits came in higher than expected, but shares falling after the company said it expects 2016 to be, quote, challenging.
Never like to hear that word, Ron.
It's tough out there, Chris.
Weak commodity prices really hurting businesses, industrial businesses like Deere.
And the sales numbers reflect that, down 13% in both their agricultural businesses week and their construction businesses week.
It's interesting, I was talking to my colleague Jeff Fischer this morning, who's actually
short Deere, and we were talking about how one man's short could potentially be another
man's value investment, and it's really all about the timing and when you choose to get
in. But Deere had only 10 times earnings, depressed earnings. At some point, the cycle's
going to turn, and that's going to be a good stock to own.
Let's bring in our man Steve Broido from the other side of the glass. Steve, we've
got less than a minute. I'm just curious, do you ever drive a John Deere tractor? Ever
some big farm equipment? No.
I did. Growing up, we had a large
backyard, and we had a deer tractor.
I did grow up in Illinois, but no. We had a
small tractor, but it was not a big one. I've always wanted one of the
riding lawnmowers. It was awesome.
Before I learned to drive, that's what
I would do. Yeah, it was great. Steve, what's
the biggest vehicle you've ever driven?
A 1978 Ford
LTD. That was
very, very large. It was the size of a
tanker. Still just four wheels on that vehicle
though, right? Just four wheels.
Alright, guys. We'll see you a little bit later
in the show. Up next, we are heading to the boardroom with author Jeff Graham. Stay right
here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Chris Hill.
With activist shareholders like Carl Icahn, Dan Loeb, and others constantly making headlines,
investors are forgiven for thinking that this is a relatively new phenomenon. But in fact,
this type of endeavor dates back to the 1920s. And it is a history wonderfully brought to life
by Jeff Graham in his brand new book, Dear Chairman, Boardman Battles and the Rise of
Shareholder Activism. Jeff joins me now on the phone. Jeff, thank you for being here.
Thanks for having me.
I think a lot of people hear the phrase corporate governance, and then they start to doze off.
But some of the battles that you illustrate in your book are just flat-out entertaining.
You've organized the book around eight different shareholder letters, and I want to spot you
up with a couple and have you walk me through them and what they mean for investors.
And let's start with Warren Buffett.
1964, he sends a letter to the CEO of American Express, and the subtitle of this chapter
is The Great Salad Oil Swindle.
It's an interesting case because actually Buffett is on the other side from the activists.
So American Express had been defrauded in the Great Swindle.
And the company had guaranteed the inventory of a swindler who had thousands or millions of gallons of soybean oil that he actually, they were just seawater.
and American Express had guaranteed the existence of the soybean oil
and I was on the hook and I had $100 million of liabilities
and at that point that was enough to sink the company.
And they ultimately arranged a deal with its claimants
that would allow the company to survive
but that compensated the claimants for the liabilities
and um and incredibly the shareholders of american express or a few shareholders decided oh this is a
bad idea you know they don't have to do this and they protested the company paying their claimants
and buffett intervened to say hey look i'm a you know i'm a long-term shareholder here
this is the right thing to do and i'll testify on your behalf and you know it was a turning point
in Buffett's career for several reasons.
The first is he had historically been a little bit of an activist himself,
investing in these kind of declining companies that had lots of cash
but were what he called cigar butts,
where you pick the cigar butt off the ground because it's a cheap stock
and you can get a free puff.
And with American Express, he found a really good business
and he intervened not to compel them to pay out their cash to shareholders, but to do the right
thing and to pay claimants. Why do you think Buffett is not more of an activist? And it's
something that some people have criticized him for, I guess, recently with Coca-Cola and executive
compensation. But for as much power as he has, arguably as much if not more power than any
investor out there, he really doesn't throw his weight around in the way that, say, a Carl Icahn
does. And I'm just wondering, as someone who has gone to Berkshire Hathaway meetings, has studied
Warren Buffett, why do you think he is not more of an in-your-face activist?
you know i think there's a there's a lot of opinions out there about this and i think there
are people that you know that that believe oh it's a it's a calculated ploy to to be the nice
guy and to garnish his his public image but you know i honestly think that activism
to be a good activist you know there's a dispositional element like you have to like
you know, being aggressive, you have to be extremely confident that you're always right.
And I just think, and you know, this is just an opinion, but I just think it's not his thing,
ultimately, that it's not his style, that he doesn't enjoy it.
One of the other letters that you highlight, and maybe this is appropriate, given that we're in
an election year, because I think for a lot of people, they hear the name Ross Perot. And they
think back to when he launched an independent bid for the presidency in 1992. But he was a
businessman for a very long time and a very successful one. Walk me through his letter
to Roger Smith, the head of General Motors in the 1980s.
Sure. I mean, it's probably the best letter in the book. So Ross Perot had sold his company EDS
to GM in the 1980s. And, you know, the idea for GM at the time was Perot was, you know,
a legendary businessman. He got the most out of his people. And GM was a bureaucratic company
that was having a hard time competing with the Japanese. And so their idea was to bring
and Perot, put him on the board, and to kind of infuse the GM culture with the magic of
Ross Perot.
And of course, that didn't work, and he immediately began to conflict with the CEO and chairman
of GM, a man named Roger Smith.
And the letter that's included in the appendix of the book is kind of the breaking point
in their relationship. A GM has decided to buy Hughes Aircraft, and Perot wrote a four-page
angry letter to Smith explaining that it was a bad idea to do this deal and kind of pointing out
all the flaws in Smith's long-term strategy. And it's a really remarkable letter. It's basically
in all bullet points and he pulls no punches. And for anyone who has heard Ross Perot speak
or even Dana Carvey's impression of Ross Perot on Saturday Night Live, it's really easy to hear
that distinctive voice with those bullet points. And of any of the letters, it is, I don't want to
say it's confrontational or rude in any way, but it is certainly the most pointed. He's just
incredibly direct. There's no misreading that. I mean, I would say it's confrontational. It's
not rude. It's funny. I tried to get the guy that narrated the audio book to do a Ross Perot
impression when he reads that letter, but he didn't want to do it. You couldn't bring in Dana
Carvey just on a consult? He could probably just phone that one in.
I forgot about the fact that Dana Carvey existed. That was an oversight.
That doesn't speak well for Dana Carvey's career.
But that whole case, I mean, GM pretty much went from the best company in the country to
the worst company that anyone had ever seen in a matter of 20 to 30 years. And
And it's a real, it kind of explains the fine line that you have between good corporate governance and bad corporate governance.
And how on the one, like on the one side, you had a company that was incredibly well run, that played a key role in the success of the United States in World War II.
And on the other side, you had a company that manufactured the one-car death machine, talked about in the Nader book, that pretty much became the example of bureaucratic bad corporation.
and the fact that that could happen in 20 years
kind of highlights how important a governance is
and how quickly it can go badly.
You're listening to Motley Fool Money
talking with Jeff Graham.
His new book is Dear Chairman,
Boardroom Battles and the Rise of Shareholder Activism.
I want to lean on your expertise as an investor
for a few moments before we wrap up.
I read an interview where you said recently, the bitter truth is that many public companies are horribly run and shareholders are often treated terribly.
That struck me as pretty strong, and I immediately and rather selfishly went to my own portfolio and looked at the 15 or so companies that I owned and thought, well, wait a minute.
I don't feel like I'm being terribly treated by these companies.
What are one or two of the ways that you think the average public company is mistreating shareholders?
Well, I think, you know, the main thing is that you have a system of where the management essentially chooses the board of directors.
And the board of directors is supposed to answer to the shareholders.
The truth is, you know, for lots of boards, you know, there's a policy that they're not even supposed to talk to shareholders.
And so there's a friction there that the system creates that is counter to the whole point of the structure.
And that's the hard thing with governance.
And the truth of the matter is that incentives are very important in how people act.
And the shareholders and the board of directors and the CEO of the company are rarely going to be perfectly aligned.
And, you know, in this book, I don't come down that hard on management teams.
I pretty much take these eight examples to explain how the system works,
to show you examples of bad activism and good activism, of bad boards and good boards.
But I definitely have seen in my career as an investor a lot of bad oversight
and just a lot of complacent boards.
and it's kind of a fact of life in investing, especially in smaller companies. If you invest
in the micro cap space, you know, when you find a cheap stock, it's usually because there's a
governance issue with it. You know, that is usually the cause of the undervaluation.
I know you're a value investor, but to the extent that you look to management when you are making
investment decisions, what do you look for when you're evaluating the people that are running a
company? Yeah, I mean, you know, because I'm a finance guy, I'm not that great at being able
to tell if they're good operators. Because it's easy to seem like a good operator. If you know
your business, it's hard for a financial investor, you know, like myself to be able to tell. And so
the main thing I focus on is their capital allocation. And a public company, or any company
can create or destroy a lot of value depending on the way that they spend the cash flow that
their business generates. And so that's the thing that I focus on, are do they understand their
capital allocation choices? Do they have a reason for doing the things that they're doing with the
cash? And, you know, I don't expect perfection. I mean, I have investments in a couple companies
where I love the management, I think they're great operators, and their allocation of their cash
is pretty good. And that can be good enough. But in general, if you allocate extremely well,
then it creates a tremendous amount of shareholder value.
Over the last six months, we've seen a lot of companies across a pretty broad range of industries
where the share price has been cut 20%, 40%, sometimes even more.
How do you differentiate between a stock that is a value play and a stock that's a value trap?
Yeah, I mean, that's like the hardest thing.
I mean, I think of the best example of a value trap.
In a value trap, there is value in the company, but you're not going to realize it
because of the way the company is run.
And so to me, a value trap means bad oversight and bad governance.
And that's the reason that activism exists,
is to take advantage of that dynamic.
Last question, then I'll let you go.
This is your first book.
What do you know now about writing a book
that you didn't know when you started?
um you know i thought
the whole process is it's just it requires you to like to work every day and you have to commit
you know four to five hours every day to write so i knew that it was going to be miserable i knew
that i didn't have time to do it but the depth of the misery i didn't completely appreciate
but then there's this thing like the moment that it's over it's like a euphoric you know like whoa
this is incredible like i think that the finished product is very good and so it seduces you into
thinking man maybe i should do another when really it was brutally you know miserable when it was
happening i think the depths of misery is a good title for your next book charles charles schwab
called this required reading for any investor the book is dear chairman boardroom battles and the
rise of shareholder activism. It is on sale next week, but pre-orders on Amazon already have it
climbing up the business bestseller charts. Jeff Graham, thanks for being here.
Thanks a lot for having me, Chris.
Coming up, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar. This is Motley Fool Money.
As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about,
and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against,
so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm
Chris Hill, and joining me in studio once again, Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, and Ron Gross.
Guys, two things before we get to the stocks on our radar with our man Steve Broido. First,
joining Steve on the other side of the glass this week, special guest Tony Gonzalez coming in from
A long-time listener and member of several different Motley Fool investing services.
Former tight end for the Chiefs, the Falcons?
A different Tony.
Oh, okay, well.
That one's retired. This one's still kicking and hard at work.
Second, no word yet if the chocolate-covered fries that McDonald's has been testing in Japan are coming to America.
But, reports this week that McDonald's will be testing the Chicken McGriddle,
a fried chicken patty between two maple syrup-infused pancake buns. They will be testing this at
11 locations in central Ohio. No, no, no, no.
No? You're not interested? On the Twitter, I said, just because you can doesn't mean
you should. I don't know. If this were a stock, I think
I would buy a couple of shares, Jason. Unscientific survey here. We were talking
to Mac before taping. Do you go with this Chicken McGriddle, or do you go Burger King
hot dog. I like the fact that Ron called Twitter
the Twitter. I'm going to put the call out to any of our dozens of listeners who happen
to be in the central Ohio area, or anyone willing to make a road trip to central Ohio.
Drop us an email, radioatfool.com. We want some on-the-ground research of the Chicken
McGriddle. Radioatfool.com. Drop us an email. Let's get to the stocks on our radar, and
Steve Broido hit you with a question. Ron Gross, what are you looking at this week?
Building on the theme we just discussed with Deere, I'm looking at Heister Yale. HY is
the symbol. They're a large manufacturer of forklifts. As with Deere, we're at a tough
point in the cycle right now. 2016 actually doesn't look much better, but that's where
value investors look for value. The company is solidly profitable, even during this tough
time. Very strong balance sheet, only six times EBITDA, P-E ratio of 12. Stock looks
cheap, just got to be patient. Steve, question about Heister Yale?
Yeah, what's your favorite feature about their forklifts?
I like the vertical up, and then it can go down as well. If you don't have that,
then you're not really a forklift. And they make some great ball bearings,
don't they? It's all ball bearings.
Jason Moser, what are you looking at? Building on another theme, Matty was
talking about e-commerce earlier, looking at Wayfair, ticker W. We have it on the watchlist
in MDP. Their earnings will come out next week. This is one we've seen some very strong
opinions on both sides of the coin there in regard to this business and the sustainability
of the model. But in short, they sell home furnishings online, and so they're just really
taking advantage of that e-commerce opportunity out there. Everything really depends for them
on the percentage of orders from repeat customers, because they've already invested to get those
customers and that really does help their bottom line. But we'll definitely be keeping
an eye on the earnings release next week and seeing if it needs to stay on the watchlist,
in the portfolio, or if we need to kick it to the curb.
Steve, question about Wayfair?
How do they handle returns? It seems kind of complicated. If you order a king-size
bed, it doesn't work out. No big deal, it's just 2,000 pounds.
Yeah, I think that's going to be a pretty tough one. But fortunately for the consumer,
the returns are the returns. You send it back. They're the ones that are going to deal with
that on the cost side of it. But yeah, I imagine a couch presents some challenges.
What I haven't talked about in a while, BofI Holding, ticker B-O-F-I, is the holding
company of Bank of Internet, which is an online-only bank, small-cap bank. This is a bank that's
come under a lot of scrutiny over the past six months to a year, a lot of short attacks
out there, most of it unfounded. But if you look at the latest results, net income up
40%, assets and deposit base growing in excess of 30%. It trades for 1.5X book value, which
is about half the multiple it was trading for about a year ago. So, it's one I'm starting
to take another look at. I think there are still some clouds out there, but it's back
on my radar.
Steve?
What can a bank of the internet do that a bricks-and-mortar bank cannot?
Well, the cost structure is obviously much, much better. So, they can give you better
terms on loans and deposit rates based on the fact that their cost structure is much lower.
Bank of Internet, Wayfair, Hyster, Yale, you got one you want to add to your watchlist, Steve?
Kind of feel bad for Ron, so I'll go with this weird one.
What a guy!
Ron Gross, not above sympathy.
All right, Ron Gross, Jason Moser, Matt Argesinger.
Guys, thanks for being here.
Thanks, Chris.
Go to podcast.fool.com.
You can check out past episodes of Motley Fool Money,
and you can check out all of the free podcasts from The Motley Fool.
That's podcast.fool.com.
That's going to do it for this week's edition of Motley Fool Money.
Our engineer is Steve Broido.
Our producer is Mac Greer.
I'm Chris Hill.
Thanks for listening.
We'll see you next week.
