Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing - Better Burgers?

Episode Date: April 1, 2016

Chipotle serves up a Better Burger. McDonald's expands in China. And Lululemon jumps. Plus, Washington Post sportswriter Barry Svrluga talks about the business of baseball.  Learn more about your ad ...choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Chris Hillenburg. Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money. From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money. It's the Motley Fool Money radio show. I'm Chris Hillen. Joining me in studio this week from Million Dollar Portfolio, Jason Moser. From Motley Fool Income Investor, James Hurley. And from Motley Fool Deep Value, Ron Gross. Good to see you as always, gentlemen. Ron Gross. Hey, Chris. We've got the latest headlines from Wall Street. Just in time for opening day, we will dig into the business of baseball. And as always, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks
Starting point is 00:00:38 on our radar. But we begin this week with the big macro. The jobs report from March showed an additional 215,000 jobs. Unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 5%. Ron, what did you think of the report? I liked it. And don't be too harsh on that unemployment rate. Was I being harsh? Put Chris in his place, Ron. There's actually a good reason for it. The labor participation rate actually ticked up to 63%. It's the highest level since March 2014. We've had a problem with the labor force participation rate for quite a bit of time now. We're actually seeing people return to the labor force
Starting point is 00:01:14 in this latest report. So that plays with the math of the unemployment rate. So, it's for a good reason that we saw that tick up. We also saw a tick up in the U6 rate, which we often talk about as the wider unemployment rate, which is at 9.8%. Wages, also another sticking point we constantly talk about, showing an increase of about 2.3% annualized. It's an increase. It's still not where we need it to be. Well, not to belittle all this analysis. I mean, Ron knows his stuff, but the question is, what's the real story? But is it a minor tweak in some of these rates, or is it what the Fed is going to do with
Starting point is 00:01:50 this information? I think the markets are going to watch the Fed. It seems like everyone has given up on the chance of an April rate increase, but now everyone seems to fully believe in a June increase. Yeah, well, even December, I think we're at a 70% likelihood of an increase for the December. It comes a little bit less than that in June. But you are correct. Where do we go from here? Well, everything has become the give-and-take economy. Employment is starting to improve a little bit. We see the auto numbers for the big three. While they did OK, they
Starting point is 00:02:20 missed analyst expectations as far as number of vehicles sold. And when you have a situation where financing is obviously very cheap, then you start to wonder, employment can be fine, but if wages aren't really increasing, well, then that could be a problem as well. Spending doesn't really pick up. So, you kind of wonder. It's a little bit of a give-and-take. And I think that Janet Yellen has been pretty clear that she's going to take baby steps here in pushing the interest rates up as we go along. So, I don't think we can expect any rash actions here anytime soon. One interesting article I saw raised a red flag. It said, there remains weakness in the temporary job market. Three months
Starting point is 00:02:55 in a row, it's been very weak. That often is an early indicator of weakness in the permanent market because the hope is temporary turns into permanent. So, if there's weakness there, it could be a red flag to watch in the coming months. But heading into the summer, isn't the summer one of the parts of the year where typically temporary employment ticks up? We'll have to keep an eye on it. So far, last three months, very weak. Let's get to some of the company news of the week. Lenar is America's second largest home builder. First quarter profits came in higher than expected and shares up this week. Looked like a pretty good report on the surface, James.
Starting point is 00:03:29 Chris, I keep reading all these articles about millennials, how they're little tyrants in the workforce and they're difficult to manage, but I got to give them credit. They're gainfully employed and they're buying houses. And this was a big driver here. First time homebuyers were accounted for 30% of Linares customers, which is a big number. Average selling price up 12% year over year. The issue was basically low supply. I mean, demand was good, but it was also low supply. In other words, we finally absorbed all the foreclosed homes and now these young people are out there buying homes again. I don't think it's a bubble in the making, but it's just an issue of the cycles evening out now.
Starting point is 00:04:06 And mortgage rates, which were historically low for quite some time, had ticked up a bit, but they're back down. It's a wonderful time to borrow money to buy a home, and you get that nice deduction as well. So, it'll be interesting to see. We just talked about the Fed and rising interest rates. As those tick up, what does that do to the first-time homebuyers? Do you get the sense that Lennar and some of the other homebuilders are maybe making business decisions based on what happened in 2008, 2009? Are they being a little bit more cautious, at least in terms of their forecasting? Chris, whatever they're doing, it's working. The S&P is up 100-something percent
Starting point is 00:04:41 since 2009, the low point early 2009. Lennar stock is up 600%. So, it's effective, whatever their strategy has been. Last week, Marriott was going to buy Starwood Hotels for $13.6 billion in cash in stock. Earlier this week, OnBank Insurance from China came in with a higher bid, only to drop that bid altogether just a few days later. What in the world is going on, Jason? This dance has been happening back and forth for a few months now, and it really did look like Anbang had the winning bid, and then they just dumped it. Yeah, this has turned into quite the soap opera. I think, honestly, that Starwood is probably happy that this is working out
Starting point is 00:05:22 the way it did. So, we look at Starwood and think, OK, management certainly has the responsibility to consider every offer on the table. And it would seem, on the surface, that accepting the highest bid makes the most sense, it would be the most responsible thing to do. But maybe not if you look at this from a longer-term perspective. And so, I think it makes more sense for Starwood to be a part of Marriott, as opposed to a part of the Yanbang consortium, because there wasn't really a hotel specialty dynamic to that relationship, whereas obviously that is just what Marriott does. I do think this really also is a testament. It shows the value in knowing where you stand in the negotiation process. I mean, it's one thing
Starting point is 00:06:01 if you're RadioShack and you're trying to liquidate assets. It's an entirely different thing if you're Starwood and you know you have this really valuable portfolio of brands in a growing and global industry that's creating a little bit of a bidding war here. But ultimately, I think it's going to work out OK. It's going to force Marriott to pay, I think, about $1 million more than they initially offered from the very beginning, but it looks like Marriott management is very excited to get this thing moving forward. And it's just an issue of the Chinese government, right? I mean, they would have taken the bid had the government not put the kibosh on Anbang.
Starting point is 00:06:31 I think it ultimately came down to the fact this was going to be more red tape involved than they really wanted to deal with, something in regard to the American ownership of a Chinese-based company. It could not exceed a certain percentage. And Anbang is notorious for having a very, let's just say, tough-to-understand ownership structure. The Pac-Mans of 2016, buying everything they can eat. Marriott shares fell when this news broke, and I'm wondering if at least some investors look at this and think, you know what? We don't want Marriott buying Starwood at this price. They're going to pay too much for it.
Starting point is 00:07:10 I could see that if Marriott came back with another deal. I mean, we look at Marriott and Starwood both down for the week after everything is said and done. Starwood, that's more understandable because, honestly, the stock fell because this higher bid is going to be thrown to the side. But I think, again, we have to look at this from a little bit of a longer-term perspective and understand that these are two very good operators in a very relevant industry where scale really matters. They're going to be able to take advantage of a lot of cost efficiencies. And I think the shareholders of Marriott will be glad this all works out here over the long haul.
Starting point is 00:07:43 The burger wars are heating up. McDonald's CEO Steve Easterbrook said the company plans to add 1,300 new restaurants in China. This news came on the same day that McDonald's got a new competitor, Chipotle, filed to trademark the name Better Burger. What could go wrong? What could possibly? Let's start with McDonald's, though. This is a big expansion that they're looking to make in China. Really big, and they've struggled in China. They're actually closing 90 restaurants in China. 2014, they had some supply issues, and supplies of chicken and burgers were not available, and they're still trying to regain the trust of the Chinese consumer, who are
Starting point is 00:08:21 actually pretty wary about some fast food concepts. So, they have an uphill battle there. But as you said, it's a very big expansion. They'll franchise them, which typically in China, people get nervous about, because you want to have some control. Be interesting to see how it works out with them giving up the control to the franchisors. But, it's a huge market, as we know. It does make sense. It's all going to be in the execution. Remember, there's going to be more competition entering that market, too, as Yum! Brand splits off their Chinese operations. And while Yum! Brand has Pizza Hut and KFC in China, Taco Bell doesn't really have a presence at all, but they are gunning to change
Starting point is 00:09:00 that. Now, how Taco Bell is received amongst the Chinese population is yet to be determined. The general Mexican food is not hot there. Pizza Hut is a luxury restaurant in China. They'll bring you fancy wines, steaks, it's a hot date type of place. A bit of a similar dynamic when we were living in Cairo, Egypt, too. Pizza Hut, and KFC to a lesser degree, but certainly Pizza Hut. I'm a little torn on the Chipotle news, because on the one hand, diversifying as they have with Shop House and Pizzeria Locale, and now presumably a burger chain, diversifying makes sense to me. On the other hand, I look at the troubles they've had over the last
Starting point is 00:09:36 six months, and I think, you know what? Given that, to date, they've only opened about a dozen shophouse restaurants. They've had that concept for years, but they've only expanded to about 12 or 13. There's only about three pizzeria locales. So, they're clearly taking a very slow approach with this. Yeah. I don't think that would be any different here with the burger concept. I think what'll happen is, they'll open up one store, they'll test it for probably about a year, trying to figure out what they can do to differentiate themselves. Like you said, the burger market is a very big one, it's very saturated. If you're going to be successful, I think you have to do two things. You have
Starting point is 00:10:15 to put yourself in markets where the demand is probably there, and then you have to do something a little bit different. The thing about burgers, they tend to breed fairly loyal followings. I mean, for everybody that likes Five Guys, you have another contingency that'll say, nope, I think Burger Joint is better, or Elevation Burger. It's something else that we've never even heard of. So, I think there's plenty of room to play in this market, just like there is in the pizza market. It's just figuring out what they can do to differentiate themselves, because we know that the model there works fine. O'Reilly. I agree. The model works fine. I just think the burger market is just too
Starting point is 00:10:47 saturated. There's just too many Burger Joints out there. It's the new cupcake. Every place was a cupcake place a few years ago, and then they all closed down. Are you a burger aficionado yourself? I'm not. I like a burger. I like a good burger. He's clearly anti-cupcakes. There's too many choices, and I can't imagine they'll differentiate themselves in any major way from all the other choices out there. So, hey, go slow, take a measured approach,
Starting point is 00:11:16 test it, but I don't see it being a big deal. And I would say to investors in Chipotle today, take solace in knowing that they will take it slowly, and if it doesn't work, they will bag it. I mean, this is not going to be something where they're rolling out 50 burger joints a year now in the hopes of overtaking this market. Up next, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar. Stay right here, this is Motley Fool Money. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks
Starting point is 00:11:47 based solely on what you hear. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Chris Hill here in studio with Jason Moser, James Early, and Ron Gross. SunEdison bills itself as the largest global renewable energy development company, and it is getting smaller by the day. Shares down more than 60% this week, James. There's a lot going on, and on top of all of that, the U.S. Justice Department came knocking on their door with a subpoena. You know, Chris, I had 50 cents in my pocket today, and I debated between buying some chips from the vending machine or a share of SunEdison. This is just a classic example of a company that stuffed way too much in its mouth and then couldn't digest it, had to spit some
Starting point is 00:12:25 out and whatever else happened. So, these guys hide debt, they're getting sued after a failed acquisition, DOJ investigation, CFO resigned. Everything is bad about this company. It's just an obvious example. You don't have an unlimited runway in renewable energy no matter how feel-good of a thing you're doing. You have to control yourself, and they didn't. So, the fact that the stock has dropped from the mid-30s to $0.50 a share in six months, you don't look at that and think, ooh, maybe I'll take a flyer. Ron, I've got to ask Ron, it does seem like a Ron kind of a stock. I would like to do a liquidation analysis or a balance sheet analysis, or just
Starting point is 00:13:01 take a quick look at tangible book value, and where are we in relation to the stock price. Ron, you know much more about this than I do. If they're already entering debtor in possession financing, isn't that ... Well, that's different. If you're an equity holder, you're probably going to get wiped out, right? I didn't realize we were at that point. You know, Einhorn owns 7% himself, and Greenlight owns 4%. How's that working out? Apparently not very well.
Starting point is 00:13:22 McCormick's first quarter profits rose 32%. The Spicemaker also raised guidance for the full fiscal year. They're getting it done, Jason. They are. The surprise here is that we're not surprised. It's just more of the same from this company. They've done a wonderful job through the years of just grooming and developing this brand that has just owned an entire aisle in virtually every grocery store you set foot in.
Starting point is 00:13:44 And I don't see that changing. They have just done a tremendous job in building that brand over time, and consumers buy it almost without even thinking about it anymore. I know I certainly do, and I think I'd be willing to bet that probably every homeowner has at least one McCormick product in their pantry somewhere. Just a very funny quote from the call, you wonder why they're doing so well. Well, here's the money quote right here. Management says, quote, consumer demand for flavor is strong and on the rise. End quote. Because, I mean, who doesn't love flavor, right? We all love a little flavor. And a big driver for this company continues to be what they call the Comprehensive Continuous Improvement
Starting point is 00:14:23 Program, which is just code for ... Whoever made that slogan got paid way too much, I'm telling you that. It's code for, we're constantly focusing on how to cut costs and be as efficient as possible. You look at the top-line growth versus the bottom-line growth of this company, it's working, because they remain very, very profitable, and I think that continues. I just got to say, every time I see McCormick, I feel like an idiot, because years ago, this was an income investor recommendation. It made good returns, and then I sold, and it's just gone up, up, up. It's up 240% since 2009. This is an example of finding a best-of-breed
Starting point is 00:14:55 stock and just sticking with it, almost regardless of valuation. I don't disagree at all. This is a good example of that. Shares of Lululemon Athletica up 12% this week after fourth quarter profits came in higher than expected. Nice end of the fiscal year, Ron. Yeah, they had a good year. This is a company that has had a checkered past on a number of fronts from product to management, but things are going well now. So, the holiday season was very strong. Same-store sales up 5%, if you exclude currency, with profit up 6%. Guidance
Starting point is 00:15:24 was actually a little bit weak, but the stock seemed to shrug that off and was strong. They want online sales to grow to a quarter of revenue by 2020. That's up from about 20% event now. So, the company is executing well and expanding its product offerings as well. Alright, let's get to the stocks on our radar this week. We'll bring in our man Steve Broido in from the other side of the glass to hit you with a question. Jason Moser, you're up first. What are you looking at? Sure. As an MDP holding, we have today Boston Beer, ticker SAM. I was reading this week a conference called the Meeting of the Malts. I just love that name. But, Dick Yangling,
Starting point is 00:16:00 Jim Cook and Ken Grossman, the founders of Yingling Brewery, Boston Beer and Sierra Nevada. We're talking a lot about the saturation in the craft brew market today. I think a lot of people aren't really taking a long enough view here in that a lot of these breweries are very small. They are not built to last. The venture capital that's investing a lot of money in them, well, those funds have finite lives as well. At some point, they're going to be wanting to realize returns on those investments. Boston Beer has a very good competitive advantage, not only the brand, but the distribution and the production facilities it has today. Not to mention, a very smart leader in Jim Cook. So, I think this is a business we plan
Starting point is 00:16:36 on holding on for a long time in NDP. Steve, question about Boston Beer? Do you have a favorite bad beer? Boston Beer is a good one, do you have a favorite bad one? You're talking about just your regular old mass brew? You bet. You know, I was in the golf business a lifetime ago, and Greenville, South Carolina, it was all about the Silver Bullets, Steve, Coors Light.
Starting point is 00:16:56 James Early, what are you looking at? I'm going with a stock called Omnicom. This is an income investor recommendation. And this is a stock that I've tried hard to get people to love. It's just tough because it's sort of like steak at a seafood restaurant. It's a dividend stock, but it's an advertising company. It's a company that the TV show called Mad Men was based on. It has great margin, great profits, 40-something percent return on equity.
Starting point is 00:17:20 I'm looking at the numbers right now. 2.4% yield isn't huge. The stock is up 10% this year. I think it's an overlooked dividend stock just because it's in a weird industry. And the ticker? OMC. Steve? If I were a layperson, how would I begin to make sense of the advertising industry and what makes a good business in that space?
Starting point is 00:17:37 It's cyclical. Obviously, talent is what's useful, but this company has a bunch of different agencies, so they can serve competing businesses. Normally, if you're Coke and I'm Pepsi, we wouldn't go to the same agency because of conflict of interest. But if one parent company has many different sub-agencies, then they can do that. Omnicom does. That's part of their business model. Ron Gross, what are you looking at? Steve, I've got to go back to Perry Ellis, which I know you know well.
Starting point is 00:17:59 P-E-R-Y, they are quietly becoming a stronger business under the radar as they execute on their strategic plan. They report fourth quarter results next week. Stock's currently trading at a P-E of 10. It looks very undervalued. Steve? How does Perry Ellis get away from being the TJ Maxx brand that we have come to love? I don't know if they need to necessarily get away from it.
Starting point is 00:18:21 They just need to get the right merchandise at the right price points into the stores. And I think if they stick to their bread and butter, then sales will grow and profits along with them. What do you like, Steve? I'm going with Omnicon. Is that it, James? It is, Steve. Thank you so much. I must have sold it well. Yes, I'm in. All right, guys. Thanks for being here.
Starting point is 00:18:40 Thank you, Chris. ESPN's Tony Kornheiser says he is quite simply one of the best sports writers in America. Barry's Verluga is next. This is Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Chris Hill. Opening day is this weekend. So to talk through the business of baseball and more, we turn to Barry Zverluga. He's the national baseball writer for the Washington Post, author of the fabulous book, The Grind, Inside Baseball's Endless Season. And he joins me now from across the Potomac River in Washington, D.C. Barry,
Starting point is 00:19:12 thanks for coming back on the show. Chris, thanks for having me. Major League Baseball is a $9 billion industry, and at least on the surface, it looks like there's good money being made by the players and the teams and the networks. When you look at the business of baseball, does it look healthy, or do you have questions about its health? I really don't. I mean, I think that there's a popular narrative, and actually now I think the revenues are up to $9.5 billion, pushing forward all the time. I think there's kind of a popular narrative that we get to the World Series every year, and the Royals are in it, and there's kind of small market teams, and it's not the Yankees and the Red Sox in the postseason all the time that these national TV ratings are not peaking, and, oh, they're the lowest since this or that, and the All-Star Game ratings aren't what they used to be. It's not the midsummer classic that everybody kind of, you know, marked their summer around. But it really can take on the kind of vibe of a dying sport. And, of course, you know, they've got to be aware of their demographics and aware of what's largely an aging fan base
Starting point is 00:20:26 and try to figure out ways to get younger people playing the game and engaged in the game and, you know, kind of try to wake up and figure out what the score was last night and be really involved. But if you look at it as 30 individual businesses, these businesses are really doing quite well. A lot of the money comes in through the local television contracts, and that business is booming. The Royals are a great example. Their attendance skyrocketed last year. Attendance across the majors was almost 75 million people.
Starting point is 00:21:05 last year, it's the seventh highest, seventh most attendance of any year in Major League history, and all of those years have come since 2005. So this is a year in which a new collective bargaining agreement expires, or a new one will be negotiated because the current one expires at the end of the 2016 season. And I think the general sense, and you can never bank on anything in one of these labor negotiations, but the general sense is that both sides know they've got a pretty good thing going. And the players are making lots of money. The owners are making money. And there's not sort of a line in the sand. We're at a tipping point. We need a salary cap, or we need more than a luxury tax. There's really kind of a, there are going to be some sticking
Starting point is 00:21:54 points. But I think in general, the attitude is, we've got something good here. Let's keep it going. We are, however, starting to see standoffs between television networks and the cable providers, not on the national level yet, but we have seen it in cities like Houston and L.A. and now New York City, where Comcast has blocked out the channel that airs the Yankee games. And it does seem like if things are at the moment good between the owners and the players, maybe behind the scenes, things are getting a little chippy in terms of the television deals.
Starting point is 00:22:28 And I think that's what we're going to see in sports TV in, you know, surely the next decade, but maybe even more in the in the near term. You know, a lot of these rights fees were signed or these deals for these huge, you know, rights fees were signed in an era before we had the idea that, oh, yeah, we are going to watch games on our phone and we do want it to travel with us. And, you know, the days of bundling ESPN and other sports properties into these huge cable television packages and charging, you know, a couple hundred dollars a month for your service at home, it seems like the consumer is kind of running out of patience with that. And it'll be really interesting to see, you know, as we go forward and so many things, you know, from the Olympics to baseball to the NCAA basketball tournament are fueled by these giant TV contracts. You know, is that model sustainable anymore as viewers' habits change, as the networks become less popular or less, you know, viewers become less dependent on them because they can get content from so many different ways? I think that's a kind of a very large picture view of not just Major League Baseball and their TV issues, but sports TV issues as a whole. One of the biggest stories of the preseason had less to do with baseball and more to do with international politics, with President Obama going down to Cuba and taking in a game.
Starting point is 00:24:13 What do you think the president's move towards normalization of relations with Cuba means for the business of Major League Baseball? Well, I think it's interesting on a couple levels. One, it's clear that baseball is going to be at the front and center of any sort of diplomatic negotiations between the two countries. It's something that has a deep history with both countries and is really, you know, in a lot of ways more interesting and sexier as something to put out in front of a diplomatic negotiation than, say, you know, sugarcane trade or something like that. So I think there was a lot of pomp and circumstance around Obama not only going to
Starting point is 00:24:55 Havana and going to Cuba, but to sitting in that stadium for nine innings between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cuban national team. But if you talk to scouts and executives around Major League Baseball, even if relations with Cuba are normalized, and we're a long way from that actually happening, the impact on the major leagues over the next year, two years, five years, doesn't seem like it's going to be that great. Most of the talent, most of the top level talent, Yasiel Puig and Jose Abreu and Jose Fernandez and Jonas Cespedes, they have already defected and they're already here. And there are, in fact, more than a hundred other players over the last several years
Starting point is 00:25:48 who have defected and done the very harrowing journey and had to take a raft or whatever to get to the United States and be scouted. A lot of them won't even make it to the majors. Some of them won't be signed. And what's left behind in Cuba is an aging national team, a less than thinned out talent base. It would be good for the Cuban player to have normalized relations, and it would be great to have a safer path and a more normal way to get into the American baseball system. But from a baseball's perspective, if relations are normalized, you're not going to look at, you know, 15 or 20 Yasiel Puig's coming over in the first two years. There'll be much a thinner talent flow than that. You're listening to Motley Fool Money talking with Berries Verluga
Starting point is 00:26:42 from the Washington Post. Last time you were on the show, one of the things we talked about was how the NFL is able to bring in casual fans in a way that's harder for baseball to do as we get set to kick off the 2016 season. What is a storyline that you're watching that you think casual baseball fans might find pretty compelling? Well, I think, you know, I think every, even casual fans understand what history and frustration and kind of the kind of frustration that can define a city or define a region's attitude to a certain degree. I grew up in New england and and of course that references the red sox if you know the pre-2004 red sox because for generations um you know all new england had known was disappointment and frustration and and so that
Starting point is 00:27:40 that turns it to the chicago cubs this year who haven't won a world series since since 1908 and um are 108 years removed from that and and you know very living cubs fans don't know that euphoria So it's a very on-the-field kind of storyline, but I think it's one that draws in people who aren't day-to-day baseball fans because the Cubs have a very good team. You could argue they have the best organization in baseball right now, and if they're around in October, those national TV ratings we were talking about that kind of flag annually, man a lot of people will be will be tuning in because you know Chicago would be kind of a different city if the Cubs ended up winning a World Series. One of the things you wrote on Twitter recently was I just made playoff predictions that did not include the St. Louis Cardinals I may not sleep well for six months I'm curious about what your predictions
Starting point is 00:28:38 are but first why do you think baseball success is so hard to predict Sports Illustrated came out with their annual issue where they're previewing the season. And part of them picking the winner included an admission on the part of Sports Illustrated, a venerable publication, that in the last 20 years, they've been correct precisely once. Well, I think a couple of reasons. One, when you're predicting success, and I don't think it's as hard to predict success over the course of 162 game season. There are variables, of course, variables in performance, and almost more importantly, variables in health. But, you know, the truth comes out over 162 games, and it's hard to hide from the truth. It's hard to
Starting point is 00:29:26 play above your level by such a significant factor that turning an 80-game winner into a 100-game winner just simply doesn't happen in the way that an NFL team who is, you know, probably a seven and nine team ends up winning three extra games and and you know in in whatever circumstances and all of a sudden could win 10 games and be a division champion so um i think it's a little bit easier and i failed at this many times but i think it's a little bit easier to predict success over the regular season but now that the playoffs are expanded and they're not just expanded to three division champions and a and a wild card team but they now have two wild card teams and playing that single game um elimination game in it to start october that
Starting point is 00:30:15 tournament is really really difficult to to pick the the san francisco giants have won three world series since 2010 and going into each of those post seasons no scout or executive would have said you gotta watch the giants they're the clear favorite here so um you know talk to the 116 win Seattle Mariners of several several years ago who lost in the first round um you know the Cardinals have had the Cardinals won 100 games last year and had the best record in baseball and the Cubs beat them in four games of the division series um it's it once you get to October uh it's best to not make predictions but to sit back and enjoy it because you really have no idea what's going to happen who'd you pick I picked the Astros um I picked the Astros because I really
Starting point is 00:31:01 feel like they're on the rise. They have the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner in Dallas Keuchel, who had a breakout year last year. But I also think they have a much deeper rotation than they had last year. And you talk about something that could draw in fans who might not be traditional fans. They have one of the best young players in the game in their shortstop, Carlos Correa, who for the first time will play a full season this year. And he certainly looks like the kind of player that not only can you build a franchise around and build a lineup around and build a team around, but really you can build a fan base around because he's charismatic and funny and fun and he plays with flair
Starting point is 00:31:38 and they have a really good organization. They have a very good major league team. So I went with the Astros. Our producer, Matt Greer, is a proud native of Houston and you've made him very, very happy. Coming up, more with Barry's Verluga, including a round of buy, sell, or hold. Stay right here. This is Motley Fool Money.
Starting point is 00:32:11 Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Chris Hill talking with Washington Post writer Barry Zverluga. Before we wrap up, looking ahead to the summer, you mentioned the Olympics. You're heading to Rio? Indeed. You've covered the Olympics before. you were in Athens in 2004, Beijing, London. So you're an old pro at this. What do you like to cover? If your editor comes to you and says, you get your pick, what is the Summer Olympics sport
Starting point is 00:32:41 that is the most fun for you to be at? Well, I'm a little biased in this because, as you said, my first Olympics was in 04, and that was Michael Phelps' first Olympics. And we actually had a a reporter assigned for the full year just to cover phelps and and i was kind of younger person the low person on the totem pole and i got swimming but everything but phelps um so i kind of picked at the other storylines there and americans are always strong in in swimming and swimming swimmers are are for the most part pretty bright uh analytical thinkers they're fun to interview. They're pretty thoughtful. So I've kind of gotten sucked in by swimming. I then did cover Phelps and his eight golds at Beijing. And I just like the characters. So I'll be at the
Starting point is 00:33:33 trials in Omaha in June and into July. But that's kind of a, it might sound niche. It's kind of a personal preference. I kind of like and know the storylines there. And I think it's fun. I also think one great thing about covering the olympics is whenever you're done with kind of whatever your beat assignment is for for those two and a half weeks if you know the swim meet will last eight days you're gonna stumble into some story you have no idea about and you don't have any idea what these athletes have been through and and who they are and how they got there and what comes out in their performance and telling those stories whether they're about you know judo or rowing or whatever. It doesn't really matter the sport. The fun part about being at the Olympics is
Starting point is 00:34:22 packing up at the end of it and being like, wow, I never saw that coming. And that was super, super fun. All right. We will wrap up with a round of Buy, Sell, or Hold. This is baseball's most valuable team with an estimated value of nearly $3.5 billion. Buy, Sell, or Hold, the New York Yankees? I buy them. I mean, there's no, there's almost no better brand in, in sports. Um, and it just being at their, at their spring complex and watching fans walk around this kind of, you know, place at the side of a highway in Tampa and just soak in history. This, that can't be replicated. So I buy there. This spectator event first appeared on national television in October of 1981, so it's a bit long in the tooth. Buy, sell, or hold The Wave?
Starting point is 00:35:15 Oh, sell hard. Sell now and sell yesterday. I mean, you talk about, if you want to list like five things that are the definition of tired, I challenge you to come up with a list that doesn't include the wave. He's a superstar whose career has been tainted by his use of illegal performance-enhancing drugs. Buy, sell, or hold Alex Rodriguez being elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame? I sell it, not necessarily because I believe that he shouldn't be there. I think we are into the grayest of gray areas on how these guys should be treated, and I think it's naive to think that there isn't somebody who's already been elected or who will be elected who, you know, relied pretty heavily on performance-enhancing drugs and just weren't either stupid enough to
Starting point is 00:36:06 get caught or were just incredibly lucky not to get caught. But I think the record shows, the recent record, you know, whether it be with Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens and Mark McGuire or whoever, that guys who are known users of PEDs have very little chance with this electorate to get into the Hall of Fame. So I'll sell on A-Rod. And finally, it's been associated with the game since 1908 when it was immortalized in song. Buy, sell, or hold? Cracker Jack. I hold it, definitely. I mean, I... Really? Or buy it. I mean, I... You gotta buy Cracker Jack. Yeah, I mean, yeah, what am I going to do?
Starting point is 00:36:44 Sit in the stands and just watch other people eat it? Yeah, I'll buy it. I mean, unless you're a dentist, who doesn't like Cracker Jack? What else happened in 1908? I mean, that was the Cubs World Series year, right? So something's got to turn around for one of those. Yeah, I like Cracker Jack, and I even like the little prizes. So I'm fine with buying that.
Starting point is 00:37:01 The grind inside baseball's endless season is out in paperback now. It is available everywhere. It's the perfect book for any baseball fan. So pick up a copy. Barry Svrluga, thanks so much for being here. Chris, I really appreciate it. Before we wrap up this week, Steve Broido, I've got to bring you in here, man. You are a proud son of Chicago.
Starting point is 00:37:28 A lot of people, including our guest this week, predicting a pretty nice year for your Chicago Cubs. You've got to be excited about this. Of course. Everyone loves the Cubbies. Everyone? Everybody. Now, as I understand Chicago, there are people who are Cubs fans, there are people who are White Sox fans, and never the twain shall meet. Correct.
Starting point is 00:37:47 Did you grow up a Cubs fan? I really didn't like baseball very much, but if I had to pick one, it would have been the Cubs. Fair enough, fair enough. By the way, something crossed my desk this week. You know about Comic-Con? Yes. The big event out in California? I do.
Starting point is 00:38:02 Can I interest you in BrunchCon? Because apparently in August in Los Angeles, there's going to be a brunch convention. I think that sounds very interesting to me indeed. A brunch convention. So is it like tasting or is it just a... There's going to be all kinds of tastings. There's going to be something called the Hangover Lounge. I'm excited about this.
Starting point is 00:38:23 I think it sounds good. We should pack up the Foolmobile and take a trip. All right. That's going to do it for this week's edition of Motley Fool Money. Our engineer is Steve Broido. our producer is Mac Greer. I'm Chris Hill. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next week.

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