Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing - Brokerage Madness, Pepsi’s Pop, and Wrestling Smackdowns
Episode Date: October 4, 2019Charles Schwab cuts trading commissions to zero and TD Ameritrade and E*Trade follow suit. Pepsi hits an all-time high thanks to healthy returns from healthier snacks. Costco slips on disappointing ea...rnings. And Bed, Bath, & Beyond stays afloat despite slumping sales. Motley Fool analysts Andy Cross, Emily Flippen, and Jason Moser discuss those stories as well as Constellation Brands, McCormick, and Stitch Fix. Plus, Motley Fool contributor Dan Kline analyzes the latest news from professional wrestling, the NFL, Harley-Davidson, and McDonald’s. (To get 50% off our Stock Advisor service, go to http://RadarStocks.Fool.com.) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money.
It's the Motley Fool Money radio show.
I'm Chris Hill.
Joining me in studio this week, senior analysts Jason Moser, Emily Flippen, and Andy Cross.
Good to see you, as always. We've got the latest headlines from Wall Street. We will
dip into the full mailbag, and as always, we'll give an inside look at the stocks on
our radar. But we begin with a big shakeup in the brokerage industry. This week, Schwab
announced it is cutting trading commissions for U.S. stocks and ETFs to zero. TD Ameritrade
and E-Trade followed suit later in the week. And Andy, worth pointing out, all three stocks
fell double digits.
Yeah, tough week for shareholders. Great week for clients, though. If you are an investor
that uses one of those services, trading costs went dramatically lower. Now, don't overtrade,
don't use that as an excuse to overtrade. True Motley Fool principles. But clearly impactful
to some of these companies. Schwab, only about 3% or 4% of their revenues are tied to commissions,
Chris. But when you look at E-Trade and TD Ameritrade, much more significant, 17% to
25% of their revenue is tied to commissions. So, much more impactful there, and that's
why the stocks really took a hit this year. I think we've been seeing this. We've been
seeing commission costs over the last two decades. I think my first stock that I bought,
the trading costs were somewhere in the $50 to $60 or something. Ridiculous. Emily looks
at me like, oh my God. I remember the $50 commission. I remember that very well.
So, you had to pay, call your broker, all that. So, clearly, we're moving in the
right direction. Interactive Brokers, which was really driving the commission costs so
much lower, and last week announced that they were going even lower through their Interactive
Broker Lite initiative. Now, you're seeing Schwab really put the gauntlet down.
When you look at the expense basis compared to their asset, Chris, Schwab is by far the
lowest of any of the big banks, lower than Bank of America, lower than Merrill Lynch,
lower than Morgan Stanley, or Merrill Lynch is part of Bank of America, but lower than
Morgan Stanley. So, Schwab has the ability to do this because they have the most scale,
and now they've really put that marker out there for the rest of the industry to follow.
Yeah. And the one thing I was thinking about, we saw some pretty harsh reactions
this week. I would venture to say there are probably some overreactions there. I do think
TD Ameritrade is one worth considering. But think about TD before the Scottrade acquisition.
I wonder how much this type of thinking went into that acquisition. Because certainly now
now that Scottrade is a part of that TD Ameritrade family, it's easier for them to do this.
I wonder how much thought around this was in that TD Ameritrade-Scottrade tie-up.
It does seem like it's also causing a little bit of skepticism in the industry, though.
So, Robinhood obviously being the first brokerage, if you can call it that, to allow free trading,
attracted a lot of people. There was rumors of a planned Robinhood IPO. And as one might
to assume, this really undercuts a lot of their business now, right? But the big question
is, if they're not making their money by charging for tradings, well, they're probably making
their money somewhere else. And so, Robinhood has been notorious for selling essentially
user data, making their money in that regard. So, it'll be interesting to see if, I think
the costs are obviously good on a trading basis, they're still making their money somewhere else.
Well, clearly brokers are making their money elsewhere, Emily, and so much on the
fees. In Schwab's case, they moved to more subscription offerings, too, through their
Intelligent Portfolio Plus offering. So, trying to figure out how they can get revenues elsewhere
because trading itself has become a commodity and now it's gone to zero.
I'm just curious, and I'm going to ask you to look into a crystal ball, so it's
an unfair question. But clearly, as you pointed out, Andy, Schwab ran the numbers, they looked
at this, they said, look, this is not a big percentage of our revenue, we can make this
move, we think this is good for us from a brand standpoint, from potentially the ability
to take market share. They come out and announce this. Do we think the TD Ameritrade and E-Trade
were thinking about making this move on their own before Schwab did this? Because I think
they looked at what Schwab did and said, we have 24 hours to announce we're doing this
as well, because we don't have any choice. Well, they're far smaller than Schwab.
Interesting, Fidelity has not followed up. And Fidelity is really the next big player
in this block now. They are not public, neither is Vanguard. So, maybe they don't feel this
public pressure, Chris, but I think after TDA and E-Trade, their stock fell so precipitously
after Schwab's announcement, I think they felt like they just had no choice.
Costco closed out the fiscal year with a fourth quarter report that was a little
light on overall sales. Competition is tough, Jason, but Costco says they are optimistic
for the new fiscal year. Well, we've been concerned, I guess,
Costco for a while now, just based on market saturation and the fact that it's a razor-thin
margin business. We talked about this a couple of weeks ago at the Fool event, the taping
of MarketFoolery there, the power of the customer-centric business and how you really just cannot dismiss
them. That's really what Costco is. That's what it was founded on, is just the customer-centric
nature of giving these members the lowest prices possible. We can certainly see Costco
is a great example that that absolutely can transcend leadership. I mean, Jim Senegal
set it up, and Craig Jelinek continues just to keep the ball rolling. When you look at
the numbers, I mean, I was really impressed to see the top line up 7% for the core. It's
really impressive for a business like this. Membership renewal rates of close to 91% in
the U.S. and Canada worldwide, 88.4%. They have 53.9 million member households. All of
those numbers increased. So, yeah, growth is slowing, but they are growing, and they continue,
I think, to just maintain a strong reputation in the space. So, online, I think, is still,
I don't know that I would look at online or e-commerce as a tremendous opportunity for
Costco going forward. It's still a tiny part of the business at around 5% of sales.
But, I mean, I think we're seeing that there is some staying power in physical retail as well.
the membership fee encourages you to use the membership, and then the pricing scheme is so good,
members feel compelled to keep going back for more. Good balance sheet, $2.5 billion in net
cash. And like I said, margins are razor thin, but they're stable. And by any metric, this has
been a good stock to own. Yeah. And I think it was just maybe,
was it last month, two months ago, that they started to open up Costco's in China? And I
remember, I mean, you just think about the international opportunity there as well.
Well, anecdotally, there seems to be a ton of people aligned there at the Costcos in China.
So, that might also be an interesting opportunity.
The executive memberships as well.
I mean, there are some different levers.
It's a slow grower, but hey, they're growing, and management is really, really strong.
Well, and that's their first China store, I think, in Shanghai, and they're going to open another one, too.
So, that will be their first step in there, but it won't be their last.
Shares of Costco up 25% over the past year.
It's really interesting to see that kind of growth when, as you said, Jason, for a while now,
there have been either questions or concerns about their ability to grow.
We had those questions on this show. I posed them. I was a skeptic.
I mean, I've got to say, this one, I mean, it has surprised me how well the stock has performed.
But look at it over three and five years, it gets even better.
So, hey, you've got to give credit where credit's due.
A rollercoaster week for Stitch Fix.
Shares fell more than 10% on Wednesday after fourth quarter results came out, Emily,
but the stock recovered by Friday. And Stitch Fix, up about 7% for the week.
Emily Flippen. Yeah, Stitch Fix is an interesting one. It's a divisive one,
because people tend to have strong opinions about it.
David Gardner. Why do you think I went to you first?
Emily Flippen. I have no exception myself, so I'm sure Andy is going to counteract everything I say
here with a nice, let's say, bull case for Stitch Fix. But personally, the quarter was really
interesting. It's not that it was a bad quarter. They actually had some really impressive active
client growth, 18% increase, 3.2 million people, a 36% increase in revenue, earnings beat.
So, the big question was, well, why did the stock immediately at least trade down? And
it seems like just guidance for the following quarter was kind of weak. They spent less
on marketing. And they were like, we're going to have higher growth in subsequent quarters.
And the big question was, how? So, you're slowing down next quarter, you're not spending
on marketing. How are you getting that growth? And they're like, well, it's our new direct
buy feature. So, customers who are Stitch Fix subscribers can then go online and see,
essentially, a tailored feed of 30 to 40 items that they can immediately purchase.
And I think the reason why we saw the stock rebound was because the immediate reaction
was, I mean, the reaction that I still have, which is, okay, well, you're turning into
a more traditional e-commerce channel, and the whole idea of Stitch Fix is, you're supposed
to tell me what I like, and you send me a box of clothes, right? Not, I go onto your
website and then I pick what I want, because I can do that anywhere. But it seems like,
so my impression was, that's going to cannibalize a lot of their own sales. And I think that
was the immediate impression. But now, the latter impression is saying, wait a minute,
well, it actually is good because it's a tailored feed. You're not getting thousands of items
like you would if you went onto Amazon. I don't know if I buy into that narrative. I've
been a skeptic for a while, but I know Andy will have something to say.
Well, I think the big concern out of the gate was just the profit picture for next year.
They're investing, continue to invest a lot in their data algorithms, their website, all the features that Emily mentioned.
And the profitability picture for not just next quarter, but next year is looking far less than what they had last year.
And even this year, for this fiscal year, it's dropped a little bit, Chris.
So as they continue to make these investments and the revenue client growth, when they had a little extra quarter in there, so you back that out, their growth wasn't quite as high.
but I'm just glad to see the active client growth and the revenue per user continue to increase,
and that's a good sign. So, I think some of the costs of their investing is whether they can
recoup those. I think the features that Emily mentioned, I think, are a differentiating factor
for Stitch Fix. I think that's an advantage for them. And when you look at revenue growth of north
of 20%, they get the profitability picture. If they can get the operating profits in that 10%
to 15% sustainable level over the next few years, you have a stock that's been discounted over the
last couple months or so, and I think it's a good position to have for long-term owners,
but I wouldn't overweight your portfolios. Talk like the 1% to 2% range.
Yeah, it's a lot of ifs in there. I heard a lot of, if they're able to do this,
if they're able to do that. That's a lot of ifs. And what I see right now is a business
that is operating in a luxury market with expensive clothing to an audience that, admittedly,
is growing, but it's not going to revolutionize the way that the average person buys clothes.
ultimately, when somebody is crunched for cash, this is the first thing that they cut
out of their budget. It's a lot of money. I'm not sure if I really believe in the idea
of aggregating that fashion data. I've said this before, but I think that you can have
two people who look exactly the same, they're exactly the same size, but they both like
their clothes to fit a little differently. And so, having to collect information about
two people that your algorithms might say should be exactly the same, and acknowledge
that they have different preferences, I mean, that's a hard thing to do. And it's not surprising
to see them investing a lot of money into that, because it's going to take a lot of
money to get there. And I just don't see it. You've seen this profitability crunch, you're
seeing essentially what is equating to potential for slower growth, the fact that they feel
the need to go to a direct sales channel. I don't know, a lot of red flags here for
me and I'm not sure if I buy into all those ifs.
Shares of Pepsi hitting a new high this week after third quarter profits and revenue
came in higher than expected. Andy, considering the name of the company, the growth story
here has pretty much nothing to do with Pepsi. I mean, this is snacks, this is sparkling water,
this is Gatorade. Well, au contraire, my friend Chris. Their Pepsi brand actually was up. They've
seen some organic growth for the first time in, I think, maybe years. So, that was really good.
They're seeing growth in Quaker, first time in years. Frito-Lay, obviously, Chris, to your point,
has been the big driver, international big driver. But you're seeing organic growth in Frito-Lay,
which is the chips business of snacks, Doritos, Cheetos, Fritos, even their new lines like Bear
and off the beaten path, that unit was up 5.5% organic growth.
So, 5.5% revenue, that's nothing to sneeze at
when you're a company of that size for Pepsi,
as they can continue to spread those costs out.
So, you see growth across all of the divisions,
international and emerging markets, really attractive.
The new CEO, Ramon Laguarta, who took over a year ago,
has really kind of gotten this new vibe feeling for Quaker.
Of course, a lot of initiatives have been put in over the last couple of years,
but you're seeing growth across all of the divisions.
You're seeing a profit picture that isn't super attractive.
It's a very profitable company, but profit growth isn't going to be off the charts.
But you have a company that the stock has done very well,
sells at 20 to 23 times forward earnings.
It used to be at a discount to Coke.
Now it about matches that.
So it's not as cheap as it used to be.
they generate lots of free cash flow, they buy back the stock, they pay that nice little dividend,
and that's why the stock's done pretty well this year.
Yeah, I feel like every quarter I go to the call, the first thing I'm looking for is,
give me some information on SodaStream. I want to know how that acquisition is working out,
because it's not insignificant. They paid billions of dollars for it. And interestingly,
you're talking about Mr. LaGuardia. And remember, the acquisition was made under Indra Nooyi's watch.
she made that acquisition and then promptly exited stage left. I just can't help but wonder
if maybe the new leadership would have made that acquisition. Because again, in the call,
there's really no clarity, no concrete numbers. It is something they'll use to continue to combat
waste and plastic use and whatnot. I just can't help but feel that we're going to see a write-down
on that deal at some point here in the near future.
They did mention a little bit that they said it's going well. They didn't give any hard numbers
to Jason's point, especially in Europe, that is their seltzer play, their kind of like
carbonated water play is with SodaStream. So, I agree. I would love to see some little
bit more data behind how the acquisition is going, because it was $3 billion, so it was
significant. But at least they did point to, hey, it's going well, especially overseas.
Coming up, we've got beverages, spice, but not everything's nice. So, stay right here.
You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Chris Hill here in studio with Jason Moser, Emily
Flippen and Andy Cross. Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond basically flat this week, despite
the fact that same-store sales in the second quarter fell nearly 7% and overall sales were
lower than expected. And on top of that, Jason, Bed Bath & Beyond still does not have a CEO.
No, they do not. Is there a world where Bed Bath & Beyond can still exist? Absolutely,
I can see it, maybe in a smaller form, but I still don't want to invest in it.
And, I mean, I have to say, I'm astounded that they continue to repurchase shares.
I mean, we've established on this show a very long track record of them getting it completely wrong for years on end.
And while I will give them credit, those share repurchases are much lower than they used to be.
They are still actually wasting money on it.
And for a company with a net debt position of around $3 billion, no CEO,
and no real firm strategy as to how they're going to turn this thing around,
I would advise investors to steer very clear.
Constellation Brands made its name as a beverage company with names like Corona Beer,
Ballast Point, and Robert Mondavi Wines, just to name a few. But the headline of Constellation's
second quarter report appears to be the loss it took on its investment in Canopy Growth,
a cannabis company. Shares of Constellation falling 6% this week. Emily, CEO Bill Newland
says he thinks people may have gotten mixed up a little bit by this report. Do you think
that's why the stock sold off?
I don't think it's not why the stock sold off. Actually, as Nguyen's pointed
out in the earnings call, they've actually made an astounding $757 million on their investment
onto Canopy because they bought in so early. But recently, it's been a little tough. It's
definitely the reason why this company went from being profitable to at least accounting
unprofitable. So, it's an interesting company. It's a little sad that the news about Canopy
growth overtook a lot of their exciting developments, like their launches into hard cider, in my
my personal favorite, canned wine. But it's a good dividend player. It's a good, solid company.
The underlying beer industry is growing a lot.
Do we really think canned wine is going to take off as a thing?
I'm not sold it's better than boxed wine, but I'll give it a try.
I don't not think it's going to take off.
In Whole Foods, they have it right there. You can kind of buy it as you go by,
at least in the places where you can buy wine.
Have you done that, Andy?
I have not yet.
I was just going to say, for all the times I've shopped at Whole Foods and seen those cans,
I've still never pulled the trigger.
I'm buying some today.
Shares of McCormick up 7% this week. Strong third quarter results for the SpiceMaker.
Jason, sometimes we focus on McCormick's industrial division. It looks like for this quarter,
it was the consumer business that was doing the heavy lifting.
Yeah, the consumer business did very well. The flavor solutions business, that
industrial business, was flat, though I think the reaction to the stock this week was partly
a little bit of a bump up in earnings guidance, and some tailwinds they are going to recognize
in that flavor solutions segment. But I mean, this was exactly the type of quarter you would
hope for from a company like this. It's not some big top-line grower, but it's good at
what it does, and it's the leader in the space by a mile. Top-line revenue growth of 2%,
earnings up 14% due to, again, the consumer side of the business. Much like Nike, they
witnessed some very strong growth in China, which is encouraging. I think that McCormick
is just kind of the same old thing every quarter. But management is very disciplined. And I think
that's the reason why the market continues to give it a lot of credit. And it's just now looking for
that next big acquisition. Man, credit is right. When you look at this stock over the last few
years, it's just beaten the market. And it's beaten the market with lower volatility. We
talked about this before. I mean, it's a very stable performer on the business side and on
the stock side as well. I'm a very happy shareholder. What can I say?
Andy Cross, Jason Moser, Emily Flippen, we'll see you later in the show.
So, coming up, we will dig into the business of the NFL and the business of professional wrestling.
So, make sure your tray table is in the upright and locked position, because it could get a little bumpy.
Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money
I'm Chris Hill
Earlier this week, producer Matt Greer sat down with Dan Klein
Who covers technology and consumer goods for the Motley Fool
They discussed a range of all-American brands, including McDonald's and Harley-Davidson,
but they started with wrestling.
The world of professional wrestling just got more competitive this week
with the launch of AEW, All Elite Wrestling.
AEW is trying to stand out by putting the focus on actual wrestling instead of backstage theatrics.
So Mack began by asking Dan Klein,
what does this mean for the biggest player in the space, WWE?
So, WWE has focused on what they call sports entertainment.
And that's the skits, the interplay, the drama.
They view it as a soap opera.
The AEW presentation is more about wins and losses.
So, it's going to track like a sport.
And they'll have some of the shenanigans.
There'll be promos.
But it'll be much more the old school, you remember the 70s wrestling, where the idea
is, here's why I don't like you, Mac.
Here's why I'm going to beat your face in.
And that's to drive ticket sales.
And ideally, they're airing on TNT.
So, it's the first non-WWE company with a major platform, and they've sold out a bunch of shows.
There's a lot of momentum behind them, and it should worry WWE.
Okay, so I hear all that, and I hear that they're going to focus in on the wrestling.
But isn't wrestling ultimately entertainment?
Isn't it all about the personality and the stuff that happens outside of the ring?
So, I'm a little biased here.
I mean, I'm a WWE shareholder.
I'm a big longtime wrestling fan.
But I like what the AEW guys are doing.
They have some very compelling characters, and they're not ignoring that part of it.
They're just not going to the silly extremes, where sometimes you can watch a WWE show,
and in an hour, not only is there not that much wrestling, but it feels like, wait a minute,
why did that guy get a title shot? He lost last week.
There's sort of no continuity thread in terms of the fake reality of it.
Yeah. So this way, with AEW, I can root for some of these wrestlers the same way that I would root for a sports team.
Absolutely. And look, some of the old-day bad guy, good guy has gone away, but the business
model of, wow, I want to see those guys punch each other in the face, is more at the core
of what they're doing. And again, wrestling is the least popular it's been in a very long
time. WWE ratings are down at a time when they're about to get paid more for their TV
rights than they've ever gotten by a lot. It more or less doubled. So they're a very
successful company for the next five years with a smaller fan base than they need to sustain that.
Okay, and let's talk a bit more about that. So, WWE shares down a lot over this past year,
but Dan, over the past five years, up more than 400%. As you look out over the next five years,
what do you think WWE's biggest challenge is, and what's the untapped opportunity?
Well, there's too much wrestling. If you're a wrestling fan, there is at least two hours on
almost every night of the week, not counting some of these minor but still on television
promotions. Also, it's getting people to leave their house is a harder bar. So when we were
kids and looking, I'm going to guess we're in the same age group, they came to Boston
Garden once a month. It was an event. There was an hour on Saturdays on TV. They teased
what was going to happen next month in the live show, which of course is the same live
show they brought to every city. Now, why do I need to go out? There's 15 hours of wrestling
on. So it's got to be a major event or someone special coming back or a debut. And that's a
very difficult bar as a touring product. I quit watching wrestling after Andre the
Giant retired. So it's been a while. Okay, let's move on to the NFL. Ratings up for the second
year in a row, Dan. What do you make of the business of the NFL? I think the NFL, other than
having to worry about the health of its players issue, which could be a drain on its business.
Other than having to worry. Now, I want to revisit that, because that feels like a big concern.
I feel like that could ultimately end the NFL. But in terms of the popularity of it,
at the end of the year, when you sit down and look at the top 20 single TV shows for the year,
it's always like 18 NFL telecasts, led by the Super Bowl, the championship games,
maybe the Oscars sneaks in there at number 16. So, even when the NFL is down, it's still
immensely popular. It's really the only thing where if you watch a Sunday NFL game that's
exciting, either the national one or the one in your market, you can be pretty sure when
you come to work you can talk about it. So, I don't think the NFL is going to have any
trouble, even if they were 20% less popular, getting more money for television. Because
how many things do you have to sit down and watch pretty much in the moment? You can't
DVR a game and delay watching it more than that night, or else it's going to be blown
for you.
Okay. And let's talk more about that, because ESPN right now paying the NFL $15.2 billion over
eight years for a deal that expires after 2021. So, when you look at that future,
who do you think is going to pick that deal up? Is it going to be ESPN again? Are we going to
look at someone like Amazon Prime or a new player? So, ESPN absolutely needs the NFL.
I could see nothing that would replace the value of, hey, you're not carrying ESPN in my cable
system. I want Sunday Night Football. I want whatever ESPN other coverage they have. That's
more valuable to them than anyone else. But I don't think in five years you're going to see
a major streaming package that is not going to stop the NFL from saying, Netflix will offer us
this, or Disney Plus is going to offer us that, to air exclusive stuff. The reality is, the owners
are old, mostly, and they still want to be in the way they watch TV and accessible to the most
people as possible. It's why they're not putting a ton of games on the NFL network. Not everyone
has the NFL network. You can't be the biggest show of the week airing on Hulu.
OK, fair point. Let's move on to Harley-Davidson, a company that you've followed, a company
that you've written about. Dan, Harley, having a bit of a rough go lately. What's the story
with Harley? Where did it all go wrong, and what are they trying to do to correct it?
it's kind of a brand disconnect. I mean, a Harley man, a Harley-Davidson driver means
a certain type of thing. You know, it's a powerful American motorcycle. And maybe that
brand has gone a little out of fashion, and their efforts to sort of reach a new customer
base sort of fly in the face of their classic customer base. So, if Harley's going to sell
you a little electric bike that goes, me, me, me, me, instead of making the big roars.
The potato, potato, potato.
Yeah. Like, you know, the burly guy in the biker jacket who's proud of his Harley's going
they go, ugh, what's that? So, they're in a really tough...
I'll just get a Vespa if I'm going to do that.
Yeah. They sell a premium-priced product when there's similar products for cheaper to an
audience that's somewhat aged out. I mean, my dad's a Harley driver. He now has a tricycle
Harley because he can't drive a regular one anymore. And they haven't replenished those
people. And maybe they're going to have trouble doing so, because the brand just simply doesn't
resonate the way it once did.
So, is it fair to assume that you're bearish on the stock?
Yeah. I'm very bearish on the stock, because I just think there's too many motorcycle
alternatives at more affordable prices. And I don't think owning a Harley means ... and
maybe they go ultra-premium, maybe it becomes more of a Rolex brand, where they just produce
less and charge more, and there's a path to success for them, but it's not the path they're
following now. And let's close with McDonald's,
is unveiling, or it's testing, its PLT, its Plant Lettuce Tomato Sandwich. And I know,
because you wrote about it, that you're very skeptical.
Yeah, because when you have a product you think is going to be a big hit, you test it
in Western Canada in 16 stores, or whatever the number is. Now, I'm skeptical, because
if you are someone who eats healthy, and you have to go to McDonald's, it's nice that they
have a choice for you, but you are not going to choose to go to McDonald's because they
have a version of something you can get better someplace else that is more attuned to how you
eat. So I largely eat gluten-free. And I've watched this pattern of stores add gluten-free
products and then take them away when they have limited interest. Because really, a high-end
restaurant needs to have a gluten-free pasta option. A low-end restaurant doesn't, because
the person who is allergic to gluten isn't going to Pizza Hut. They're making a different choice.
And that's what's going to happen to McDonald's. This will be very popular with a very small
segment of the audience, and like salads before it, it will quietly go away.
OK, I like this move. I'm a McDonald's shareholder. But let me tell you my thinking here.
I think this is a play for families. And if you have the one person in the family who's a
vegetarian or a flexitarian, or they're trying to make healthier choices, this is McDonald's way of
saying, the entire family can still come to McDonald's. And that part will work, but I don't
think the numbers on that are big enough. And I think the options of, I mean, my kid's picky.
He loves McDonald's.
But if I said, let's go to Chipotle instead because it's a little bit of a better choice for me,
he'd be like, all right, I love Chipotle.
There's just enough choice for that family.
Again, at the airport where you're in a rush and you have no choice,
you're going to be thrilled that they have this option.
And maybe it becomes a minor permanent menu item.
It is not going to be a runaway hit because people who eat healthy don't seek out McDonald's.
And in terms of the name, PLT, do you like it?
It's a great name.
Okay, I love it, because it reminds me of bacon.
The weird thing is, they could also get a plant-based bacon and do a PPLT.
But this is not a plant. This is like a veggie burger type, right?
Right. Do a plant-based bacon. Those exist.
I like that. PPLT. There you go. You heard it here first.
Dan Klein, thanks for joining us.
McDonald's, I want a royalty.
Coming up, we'll dip into the Fool mailbag. We've got a few stocks on our radar, so stay
right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and
The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks
based solely on what you hear. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Chris Hill here in studio
once again with Jason Moser, Emily Flippen, and Andy Cross. Our email address is radio
at fool.com. Question from Isaac Mellon, who writes, I've been a Stock Advisor member for
almost three years now. I've slowly built up a retirement portfolio of almost exclusively
small cap companies. I'm 25 years old. I figure I have 40 plus years before I would need to start
selling stocks. So, I focused on Stock Advisor picks that fall in that small cap category.
In general, the companies have performed well, and I see them continuing that trend
in the decades to come. However, I wonder if I should be adding in some dividend payers.
They may add stability, plus getting paid quarterly for 40 years. Sounds kind of nice.
I like the way he's thinking, Andy.
It's smart thinking, Isaac. Well, first of all, congratulations for your success,
hopefully, in owning some of the great companies that we have in Stock Advisor. And it is tilted
towards growth. And I think the small market with growth, consumer-friendly technology,
that's really where their future is going to be. So, that's awesome. You have 40 years
of investing. That's fantastic. Hey, I love dividends. I mean, I think I bought my first
share in Home Depot when I was younger than 25 years old, and I probably have held it all the
way since. And it's paid nice and steady dividends that you can reinvest. So, if you don't need this
capital at all, having some dividend growth companies that you can invest in and build out
your portfolio, I think is smart. But don't feel like you have to go to that and replace of those
Stock Advisor growth companies? Because clearly, those are some great companies, and the future
will be set by those. Yeah, it's definitely not one or the other.
You can have the best of both worlds. I think that the longer your timeline, the more sense
it makes to own those dividend stocks. And just pulling some data from our own Rule Your
Retirement service led by Mr. Robert Brokamp, if you look at the performance of the S&P 500
so far this century, the index has returned 105% on a price-only basis. But if you look
at the index's total return, which incorporates dividends into the mix, that performance jumps
up over 200%. So, you can see, they have a material impact. It's worth owning some good
dividend payers.
Well, I went one step further than you, Jason. I went to BroCamp himself. And I posed this
question, because when I read this, my immediate gut, being a 25-year-old myself, was, I don't
really own any dividend companies, exception of Constellation Brands, which is really a
cannabis company for me at this point. But really, I don't focus on dividend-paying companies.
And so, my first cut was, yeah, no, you don't really need to, because it goes back to what
Andy said. You know, a lot of these small-cap companies, these are the growth stories that
I think are going to be important 40 years from now. But Bro said, you know, hey, wait
a minute. If you look at total returns, as long as you reinvest the dividends, actually
dividend-paying companies tend to outperform. Now, I'm not sure if that's true when you
look specifically at dividend-paying companies versus just those small-cap companies. But
I will say, I wouldn't snark them. I personally still stick with the idea of, I'm going to
go out of my way to get them, but if you do get them, Brokamp says, be sure to reinvest
the dividends and hold them in a tax-advantaged account, like, for instance, a Roth IRA, because
you'd never pay taxes on those dividends. Yeah, I think also importantly to know is
that during market slowdown periods, dividend payers and good dividend payers tend to outperform
the market. You said that like we're about to enter
a market slowdown period. No promises there, Chris.
One more question, this time from Keith and Drury, who writes, I've recently started my
career after graduating from college this last May. I'm starting to build a diversified
portfolio of stocks in my Roth IRA account. To help guide these picks, I've subscribed
to Motley Fool Stock Advisor. My question is about sector allocation for my stocks.
How should I split my assets between each sector? I've heard different lines of thinking
on this topic, with a popular view being to stick close to the S&P 500 makeup. That is,
for example, 21% of the S&P 500 is made up of information technology companies, so I
should have around 21% allocated to IT stocks in my portfolio. Is this a smart way of approaching
the weighting of my personal account?" I have absolutely heard that theory before,
in terms of, look, if you don't want to go the index fund route, you want to build your
own portfolio of stocks, stick to the allocation guidelines of the S&P 500.
I mean, it's not a bad strategy. That's a pretty good place to start off. But I would
also argue, if you're looking to mimic that allocation, then maybe you should just be
investing in the S&P 500 index fund anyway. Do something a little bit different. For me,
I try not to get too granular. I like to find the four or five big market opportunities
out there that I like. For example, healthcare or payments. Find good companies in those
markets and then invest in them. Yeah. I think there's three major
problems with this. You know, you're really overthinking it, I think, if you're trying
to match allocation. The first being that, okay, so the S&P 500, that within itself is
a choice, why not the NASDAQ 100, right? The difference between information technology
there is something like 20% vs. 50%. So, inherently, choosing the S&P 500 is within itself an investment
decision. Additionally, you have sector weightings that have drastically varied over time. It's
not like the S&P 500 has always been weighted the way that it is today. So, then you're
talking about reweighting at some undefined point in the future based on how those have
change. And the third is actually the criteria for the selection of the companies within
these different sectors. So, for instance, earlier this year, I think Facebook and Apple
were changed from tech companies to communication companies. So, there's a lot of processes
that go into actually trying to match weightings. I think here at The Motley Fool, we tend to
be much more business-focused investors. So, put a priority on finding good companies.
I would just sanity check against the benchmark. I would say, look, do I not have any healthcare
exposure? Because then you might think, OK, well, maybe I should at least have one company
that's exposed to the healthcare industry, for instance. But, yeah, I tend to be much
more focused on the business than I am the index.
Also sounds tiring.
Yeah, it really does.
Keaton's younger than me, he's got more energy. Quick shout-out, joining our
man on the other side of the glass this week is Josh Brist, a listener visiting from Minnesota.
Hey, Josh!
He's on vacation with his family.
That's so nice of you to spend some time with us.
So, thank you for that, Josh. And real quick, with all the mention of Motley Fool
Stock Advisor. If you're interested, you want to check out Stock Advisor. It's our flagship
service. You get monthly stock recommendations from Tom and David Gardner. You get their
best buys now and a lot more. You can go to RadarStocks.Fool.com and 50% off for our dozens
of listeners. So, go to RadarStocks.Fool.com. Let's get to the stocks on our radar this
week and our man behind the glass, Steve Broido. We'll hit you with a question. Emily, you're
up first. What are you looking at this week? I am looking at Square, the ticker is SQ.
this is a company that I'm a huge fan of. And the reason why I'm riding this high right now,
no pun intended, is because they announced that they're officially launching the expansion of
their payment processing service for CBD companies based here in the United States.
Steve, question about Square? So, who is Square's primary customer? Is it me if I have a store?
Who's using Square? Yeah, small to medium-sized businesses,
anybody who really needs help controlling their finances for their businesses and payment
processing mainly. Jason Moser, what are you looking at this week?
It sounds like radar stocks this week are brought to you by the war on cash, Chris,
because my radar stock is PayPal, P-Y-P-L. You may have seen news this week that via a 70%
interest purchased in Chinese payments company GoPay, PayPal will now be granted license to
provide online payment services in China. A big hurdle to clear just getting in the country.
So, when you look at the opportunity, and we're talking about trillions and trillions of dollars
flowing through those networks. There's a big opportunity for PayPal over the coming
years to really take advantage of this. You ask about why PayPal, and maybe it's that
they're seen as the best option in a tech-driven payments world. Certainly, Square is on that
level as well. But it's a company that was built, obviously, on the technology versus
one that is kind of pivoting towards technology. A big cross-border opportunity as well, where
we've seen MasterCard and Visa both make big investments in that area.
Steve, question about PayPal?
So, I find myself using PayPal a lot when I'm just checking out online. I'm like,
you can enter your credit card. I'm like, ugh. Or you can just use your PayPal account. Perfect.
Is this where PayPal shines? Am I using it correctly?
I think you are. And I think, you know, also, I find myself using it more and more for
everyday life things. When I pay for my daughter's horseback riding lessons, for example. So,
I think what they're doing is wonderful in that they're making themselves accessible to everyone.
And that's thanks to them and thanks to mobile technology.
Andy Cross, what are you looking at?
Sorry to break the trend here, team, but I'm not going with another payments company.
I'm going with Delta Airlines. They announced they report official third quarter earnings
next week, but they updated their guidance looking at revenue sales to be about 6.5%
for the third quarter. What really caught my mind, though, is a little increase in some
of their non-fuel costs driven by weather impacts and employees. I want to see on the
call how they talk about that. They will probably earn $7 per share. Stock sells at $52, so
has a P of less than 8. So, looking to see what happens with Delta.
And the ticker?
D-A-L.
Steve?
Where are fuel prices going? How is that going to affect Delta?
They're going down, but they have a refinery, so it's very interesting for Delta, too.
Three stocks, Steve. You got one you want to add to your watch list?
Well, I recently bought PayPal, so I think I'm going to double down on that one.
Oh, yeah, man.
All right, Jason Moser, Emily Flippen, Andy Cross, thanks for being here.
Thanks, Chris.
Thank you.
That's going to do it for this week's edition of Motley Fool Money. Our engineer
is Steve Broido, our producer is Mac Greer. I'm Chris Hill, thanks for listening, we'll
see you next week.
