Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing - Chips, Netflix, and Betting on the NFL

Episode Date: January 24, 2020

Intel reports surprising earnings and hits a 19-year high. Netflix rises on strong international growth. American Express and Atlassian hit all-time highs. And Procter & Gamble deals with sagging diap...er demand. Senior analysts Andy Cross, Ron Gross, and Jason Moser discuss those stories and also weigh in on AMD, Comcast, Disney, IBM, and Intuitive Surgical. And they share three stocks on their radar: Tractor Supply, Live Oak Bank, and Datadog. Plus, Villanova sports law professor Andrew Brandt talks about the business of the NFL and the future of sports gambling.   Thanks Health IQ. See if you qualify for lower rates! www.healthiq.com/fool   Thanks to Grammarly for supporting The Motley Fool. For 20% off a Grammarly premium account, go to www.Grammarly.com/fool Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:35 And we've got a great conversation with Andrew Brandt to get you ready for Super Bowl 54. And it's brought to you by Grammarly. Grammarly is a communication tool that helps people improve their writing to be mistake-free, clear, and effective. Start writing confidently by going to grammarly.com slash fool
Starting point is 00:00:52 and get 20% off a Grammarly premium account today. Also, thanks to Health IQ. Health IQ uses science and data to secure lower rates on life insurance. To see if you qualify, go to healthiq.com slash fool, take the proprietary Health IQ quiz, and potentially save up to 41% on premiums. All right, let's do the show. everybody needs money that's why they call it money from fool global headquarters this is motley fool money it's the motley fool money radio show i'm chris hill joining me in studio this week senior analyst jason moser andy cross and ron gross good to see you as always gentlemen hey hey chris we've got the latest headlines from wall street we will
Starting point is 00:01:46 talk sports business with our guest, Andrew Brandt. And as always, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar. But we begin with a big company hitting a big number. Intel's market cap crossed the $300 billion mark on Friday after Intel shares rose nearly 10% on a strong fourth quarter report. You tell me, Andy, how good was this report? Yeah, really nice quarter from the giant chipmaker record sales. They were up 8% to more than $20 billion. That was a billion ahead of their own guidance. Earnings per share was up 9%. They increased the dividend by 5% to $1.32 now. Operating margins were a little ahead of estimates. What's really driving the Intel's strength is the data center business. The volumes
Starting point is 00:02:30 were up 12% for that business. And the price per the chips were up 5%. And now the data center revenues make up half of the business. So, the data center growth, as we use more and more need for data centers, and the explosion of Internet of Things, and all the mobile usage, data centers is a big growth for Intel, and it's done a really nice job getting market share in that space. Back in my day, semiconductors were always, these chips, they weren't that exciting, because it basically became a commodity business, right? And everyone could make them, and everyone and had the ability to either compete on price or not.
Starting point is 00:03:09 Is the innovation driving this big growth wave right now? Yeah, Cross, when you look at Intel, AMD, NVIDIA, there's still price competition, lots of competition out there. But really, the innovation, when you think about all of the demand for all the products that require chips and semiconductors, I mean, Internet of Things, the Mobileye acquisition by Intel has done really well from them, still memory chips. The PC, the basic PC business is relatively flat. It's nice. They maintain some market share,
Starting point is 00:03:37 maybe not as exciting. Really, the growth in the bigger enterprise data space, which is fueling the growth for Intel in particular. Yeah, I mean, as you see more and more of this sort of immersive technology future that we jump into, 3D sensing, stuff like that, I mean, I think a lot of this technology, it becomes more specialized. So, to your point, back in your day, when it was kind of all just sort of cookie-cutter, it all did the same stuff. I mean, now, I think you're seeing more specialization there. I think Lamentum's a great example. We've talked about that before, and that VC-SEL technology for AR and VR and 3D sensing and whatnot.
Starting point is 00:04:11 Now, that said, Intel, $300 billion company. All the earnings, they plow back into dividends and share buybacks. The growth is still in the single digits. So, you're not lighting the world on fire here. A lot more growth than some of the more exciting chip players like NVIDIA, but pretty stable, and the stock's done really well in the past couple of years here. Well, and you mentioned AMD. I mean, there was a stretch of time where AMD was barely surviving against Intel. And you look at least from a stock standpoint, AMD has been a much better performer recently. And I think that speaks to a lot of
Starting point is 00:04:40 the market opportunity in just the chip business. If you are willing to innovate and change your business a little bit and go more on that side of the exciting chip business, there's some growth there, and it's showing the stock prices for the chip players. I feel like Intel's the kind of company where nobody's sure if they actually own the stock or not. You've got to go back and check your statements. Oh, yeah, I do own some of that. Well, that's pretty good. The stock's up like 80% and beating the market over the last five years.
Starting point is 00:05:05 Not bad. Shares of Comcast down a bit this week, despite the fact that Comcast's fourth quarter profits and revenue both came in higher than expected. What's going on here, Ron? I'm seeing these reports of some analysts on Wall Street being worried about how much money Comcast is investing. It doesn't seem like they're looking to invest an unreasonable amount of money in 2020. Well, it is certainly a very capital-intensive business. Cap expenditures decreased 10%, however, to $6.9 billion over the year. So, you know, it is a capital-intensive business, but I don't think that's what's going on here. I think what we've seen in growth in broadband
Starting point is 00:05:43 customers was good, but the company lost more cable TV subscribers than people were expecting, which actually I don't think is that surprising in the world we live in. Lost 149,000 cable customers, but added 440,000 high-speed internet customers. That's just the way the world is moving. Streaming and broadband is the new cable, if you will. And they're doing a good job of recognizing that. Not a high-growth business, net-net at this point. Consolidated revenue only up 2%, with NBC Universal actually down almost 3%. I don't know if anyone actually saw the movie Cats, but based on these results, I'm thinking the answer is no. On the other hand, cable communications was up about 3%, so they kind of offset that. That led to an
Starting point is 00:06:33 earnings per share increase of 10%. So, not too bad at all. Allowed them to actually increase their dividend by 10%. We're starting to get more details on Peacock, which is their video streaming service. It seems like they are going to leverage the content that they have, including the Summer Olympics, which they've already sold more than $1 billion worth of ads against, rather than go the route of Disney+, Apple+, and really invest tens of billions of dollars in original programming. Yeah, I mean, they're holding out a really big hope that Peacock is going to be a big deal for them. I think it remains to be seen. The pricing is interesting, everywhere
Starting point is 00:07:11 from zero to, if you want to pay up for the no-advertising model. We'll see what happens. Certainly, the content is there. As you said, the capex is big in this industry. I misspoke a little bit. $10 billion was their total capex. $6.9 billion was just for their cable communications segment. Obviously, the more capital-intensive part of this business. Netflix added nearly 9 million net global subscribers in the fourth quarter. shares of Netflix up a bit this week. And Jason, Reed Hastings and his team don't appear to be worried about Peacock or Disney+, or any competition. I tell you, quarter in and quarter out, that guy just paced a smile on his face.
Starting point is 00:07:49 He's like, hey, we welcome the competition! This is a great space to be in! Join us! I mean, who knows how genuine that is? I think he's just the smartest guy in the room, personally. I think, if you look at Netflix, down the road, competition may undermine its pricing power at some point. But you can't discount the head start that they have in this space and this massive user base that they've built up. I mean, subscribers of 160 million plus at this point. And so, I think, yeah, the big challenge for them is to continue to keep a focus off of content costs, because content costs are certainly going up. But we know it's a business that can handle that. They're tapping the debt markets when they need to. Thankfully,
Starting point is 00:08:32 interest rates are low. They don't have to really worry about that. I think maybe the market becomes a little bit more concerned with content costs if or when we see the international growth start slowing down. Because clearly, U.S. growth is slowing down. I mean, the U.S. market here is very saturated. And it does look like forecasts for subscribers in this quarter were a bit lower than what the market was expecting and what the company lobbed up last year. So, maybe we start to see some scrutiny there if that membership, if the subscriber number starts to slow down. But for now, they continue just to churn out a lot of content that just attracts a very broad cross-section of viewer across the world. And clearly, the market is giving it some credit.
Starting point is 00:09:15 Well, you have also a company with a market cap of, what, $150 billion versus Comcast, $200 billion. You have a company that, to Jason's point, are the first mover advantage, I think, really, on the international front, that's obviously where the growth is. But there's some real value in all the content programming they're doing. We see it here, the four of us around the table here, in the U.S. mostly. But internationally, they really have a nice advantage there that I think, going forward, will be a huge boon for the subscriber base and hopefully, obviously, for the stock as well. I think the biggest mistake, and you see it core in and core out, is this assumption that it's a zero-sum game.
Starting point is 00:09:51 It's just not. I mean, it's not Netflix wins and Disney loses. I mean, we're seeing a rising tide in this market, and we're going to see some winners. Netflix is going to be one of them, and Disney's probably going to be another one. Real quick, right before we came in the studio, I saw that David Einhorn, the hedge fund manager, is increasing his short position on Netflix. Really? He looked out across the entire universe of stocks and said, that's the company I want to bet against? I think that was my initial reaction, too. I respect him as an investor and the things that he's done. I mean, to me, like, I put this in the class of Tesla, Netflix. These are cult
Starting point is 00:10:27 stocks you just don't want to be shorting. I don't know why you would short that. I mean, his concerns over debt load, cash burn, future content obligations are all correct. I mean, technically, that does make sense. But I think his mistake is this perception that it's an earning story. This is not an earning story. Still, the market is looking at this company today as a subscriber story. And as long as they keep adding subscribers, I just don't think that is a very wise, short position to be taking. Good week for Atlassian. Second quarter profits and revenue came in higher than expected for the Australian software company. Shares of Atlassian hitting an all-time high on Friday.
Starting point is 00:11:03 A really nice quarter still. This company continues to deliver these collaborative software tools. Jira, Trello now cross 50 million registered users. Sales were up 37% for the quarter. The subscription sales were up 50%. So, really nice growth in the earnings per share, it generates a lot of actually healthy cash flow and free cash flow. So they continue to innovate their marketplace, which is where developers can go and place apps and buy apps across the $1 billion in lifetime sales for the first time. That's been around since 2012. The guidance continues to be in the sales level, around the 30% level. Scott Farquhar and Michael Cannon Brooks, who are the co-founders and own a large chunk of stock,
Starting point is 00:11:48 continues to build this company for the long term. And the stock's obviously reacted not just positively this week, but over the last couple of years, and the stock's up more than 300%, 400%. Coming up, we know he's already checking on them, but we're going to check out two of Warren Buffett's biggest holdings. So stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. All right, before we get back to the show, quick shout out to Grammarly. Grammarly's a writing assistant that makes you look and sound smarter, whether you're at school, at work, you're on the go. The free version can be downloaded by anyone on their computer or phone. It reviews critical spelling and grammar, and that's great. But Grammarly's premium service
Starting point is 00:12:31 gives you more advanced help. It looks at advanced punctuation, style, vocabulary, tone, readability for different occasions. Because let's face it, when you're writing for a resume, that's different than an essay for school, which is different from a business proposal kind of thing. You know what I'm talking about. I've said it before, Grammarly is so easy to use that I've been using it, because I need all the help I can get when it comes to things like advanced punctuation. Go to Grammarly.com slash fool and get 20% off your Grammarly premium account today. That's Grammarly.com slash fool for 20% off your Grammarly premium account. All right, let's get back to the show.
Starting point is 00:13:12 Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Chris Hill here in studio with Jason Moser, Andy Cross, and Ron Gross. IBM's fourth quarter revenue finally went in the right direction for the first time in over a year. IBM had sales growth. It wasn't much growth, Ron, but a win is a win. Up 3%, adjusting for divested businesses and currency. As you noted, broke a streak of five consecutive quarterly declines. Listen, it's all about the cloud, and they had to acquire their way to that revenue growth. Red Hat was acquired third quarter of last year. That business was up 24%. The technology services business, which accounts for 30% of revenue, down almost 5%. So, there's really the story of the old business and the new company
Starting point is 00:14:01 hanging its hat on the cloud. Actually, guidance is pretty strong. They're thinking that this growth will continue. Earnings per share, when all was said and done, was actually down slightly. But the stock's only trading 10, 11 times earnings. If you think this Red Hat cloud business is sustainable and will continue, stock's cheap. Based on the history of this company and the ups and the downs, I'm in wait-and-see mode right now. See, I'm having flashbacks to 2011 and 2012, when we would talk about a big company the tech space, and you would say stuff like that. Only back then, the company was Microsoft. And it took a new CEO in Satya Nadella coming in in 2014. Ginni Rometty has been the CEO
Starting point is 00:14:48 of IBM since 2011, and the stock just hasn't done well under her leadership. I don't own IBM, but I look at what happened with Microsoft and I think, boy, maybe lightning could strike twice with a new CEO. Perhaps. Or do you give her credit for recognizing that this business was going nowhere, going out and spending a ton of money on Red Hat, $34 billion. That could have been a big flop. So far, it looks like it's not. And so, maybe she gets credit for turning this business. Only time will tell. Fourth quarter profits for Intuitive Surgical rose 22%. But was Wall Street impressed with that, Jason? No. Shares down on Friday after this report? What's going on here?
Starting point is 00:15:32 If you keep setting that bar high, eventually, you can't do anything right. But I think the bigger picture investment case for Intuitive Surgical is very much intact. I think the market is reacting, and appropriately so, to some real competitive factors that I think are going to keep management's attention here in the near future. But if we look at just the numbers, it just remains a very impressive business. Global procedure growth was 19%. In the U.S., it was 18%. They placed 336 new DaVinci systems, bringing their installed base to almost 5,600. Total recurring revenue in the quarter was closing in on $900 million, up 24%.
Starting point is 00:16:10 And that's 70% to 75% of the business is that recurring revenue. There's a lot of certainty and a lot of clarity in the business and the model and the profitability. And so, I think the stock is typically priced appropriately. But they did mention in the call, they talked about some elongated negotiation timelines and regarding to getting those machines into new hospitals. And it all comes back to competitive pressures. I mean, they are the leader in the robotic surgery space, but they're not the only one that does it. There's a lot of very well-capitalized companies out there that do the same thing.
Starting point is 00:16:43 And we're seeing some new ideas and products coming down the pike here. And so, Intuitive is going to have to answer to that. And that's going to cause some margin pressure, I think, this year and some questions as to profitability. but still, very, very strong business. I'm not saying they don't have competition, but given the switching costs that a hospital system would have to go through, doesn't that give Intuitive Surgical a little bit of a moat? I think absolutely it does, and that's a very good point to make, and that's why that 5,600 installed base is such a great advantage. Kind of like Netflix getting that massive
Starting point is 00:17:15 base of subscribers. I mean, DaVinci and Intuitive, they really have a massive base of users out there already, and the switching costs are extremely high, particularly when you consider all that goes into training the physicians on how to use these machines, and to that point, their iris augmented reality system entered clinical use this past quarter and is getting a lot of favorable reviews from physicians with boots on the ground experience there. I myself have had the opportunity to use a DaVinci machine, not on a patient, but in an operating room, and it is unbelievable. But the amount of training that is required
Starting point is 00:17:50 to be good at it and to use it on an actual human being is really quite impressive, and it's an impressive machine. Were you the guy that stitched up that grape? Was that you? Were you the grape video? Shares of American Express moving higher on Friday after fourth quarter profits and revenue came in a little higher than expected. They didn't crush this quarter, Andy, but this does cap a really strong year for AMX. It does, Chris, and the stock's at an all-time high. I mean, it's been a really nice kind of resurgence here for a company that many of us just thought just has lost it to the competition, Bank of America, Capital One,
Starting point is 00:18:27 just other companies that may have been a little bit more progressive than American Express has. But clearly, a very nice quarter. Revenue's up 9%. It's the 10th consecutive quarter that they've seen revenues grow more than 8% when you account for the foreign exchange situation. Earnings per share up 17%. They added 11.5 million proprietary cards during 2019. 70% now of new card members are choosing the fee-based options, so they continue to have that stability of earnings. Global consumer sales were up 10%. Global commercial services sales were up 7%. The merchant network business saw some growth a little bit. Both those are very profitable. So, you have a very steady business. Sells at 15X earnings. Very nice profit margin.
Starting point is 00:19:15 The stock's done fairly well over the last couple of years. And like I said, now sits at an all-time high. Berkshire Hathaway owns 152 million shares, or 18.5% worth. So, clearly done very nice for Berkshire shareholders as well. Procter & Gamble's second quarter revenue was lower than expected. Ron, this is a big company, ton of consumer brands that we all recognize. Is the global birth rate slowing down really why P&G stock was flat? I mean, yes, they sell diapers, they sell a lot of other stuff, too. That really is the reason that sales growth was rather anemic, only up about 5%. Weakness in baby products because of the global birth rate. Also saw some weakness in feminine
Starting point is 00:19:57 care segment as well. But there was some strength here, specifically the healthcare segment, skin and personal care category were both strong. You did see operating margins widen. Earnings per share are actually up 16%. Not a bad quarter at all. Stock has performed really well over the last year. Yeah, this is one of those businesses, it's not the sexiest thing in the world, but if you just go to the Procter & Gamble website and just look at the brands, there are so many that are already in your house. Yeah, for sure. And many of them are billion-dollar brands. Sometimes these companies accumulate too many, and then they have to start divesting. But the company is doing well.
Starting point is 00:20:34 They were able to raise guidance. Shares are around 24 times, which is pretty much in line with Colgate and Kimberly-Clark and folks like that. Stock and the company are doing a nice job. All right. Ron Gross, Jason Moser, Andy Cross, we'll see you a little bit later in the show. If you're looking to impress people at your Super Bowl party next weekend, we have got you covered, because up next, we'll dig into the business of the NFL and more with Andrew Brandt. So, Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Our players are fast and strong and brave and your guys, not so much.
Starting point is 00:21:15 Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Chris Hill. We are days away from Super Bowl 54. To help us dig into the business of pro football and more, we bring in Andrew Brandt. He is the executive director at the Morad Center of Sports Law at Villanova University. He's also a columnist at the Monday Morning Quarterback, host of the Business of Sports podcast. Andrew, do you ever sleep? You've got a lot going on.
Starting point is 00:21:41 Yeah, good to be with you, Chris. I always say this to people because they're always figuring out, you know, what should we call you? You've got all these titles. I say, listen, I have a lot of jobs, so I don't have to have a real one. That's really what I do. I left the Packers almost 10 years ago, and I don't say this to be arrogant. I just haven't had a 9-to-5 or 9-to-8 job since, but I've kind of pieced together a lot of deals with academia and media in trying to sort of peel back for people what goes on behind the curtain, and luckily I've been able to do that.
Starting point is 00:22:16 Well, let's peel back the curtain on the NFL. When you look broadly, and we'll get more specific in a minute, but broadly, how is business for the NFL these days? Well, it's the same answer every year. It's booming. And the revenues keep going up. And I think the primary driver of revenue always, probably since the start of the turn of this 2000 century, is media. And media includes broadcast, which it always has included, but now we have other forms of media with streaming on the horizon in a big way. And those deals continue to look really well for the future because ratings are always high, and ratings seem to be at a peak this year, where Fox and ESPN and CBS all setting records.
Starting point is 00:23:07 For games, you can pick your category for top demographics, for top games, for most people watched, for most people tuning in at any time of the game. It's just all up across the board when media is down everywhere else because consumers have so many options. So just on that metric alone, business seems to be booming. I'm sure if I were to ask someone who works in the front offices at the NFL why ratings are up this past year versus the previous year, I'm sure they would give me a line about, well, you know, the game is stronger than ever and it's all about the players and that sort of thing. As you were talking, I couldn't help but think about the rise of fantasy football. To what extent is that attributable to ratings going up on television? Well, I'm going to take you a step further, because this is the first year where we've had not fantasy football only, but real gambling on football, legalized. Supreme Court decision, of course, in 2018, and now we have legalized gambling in 15 states, many, many more to come.
Starting point is 00:24:20 And that increases engagement. But I think fantasy football has really done a service to the NFL, maybe more than any other sport, where you have this incredible fan engagement at an early age. And they're getting engaged with the sport through their fantasy teams, whether season-long fantasy or daily fantasy. And that's bringing them up to adulthood and then through adulthood. And I'm sure you know, I know everyone listening knows people not only in one or two fantasy weeks, but in multiple dozens even, where it's just become such a part of their life. And yeah, that engagement is tremendous for the NFL and is extended now to real gambling, even beyond fantasy. You and I talked on the show back in 2018 when the U.S. Supreme Court had just cleared the way for states to legalize sports betting. And one of the things you said at the time was that out of the four major pro sports in the U.S., the NBA had taken the lead in terms of embracing this legal landscape, and the NFL had not.
Starting point is 00:25:27 That was a year and a half ago. Is the NFL starting to make its peace with gambling? Yeah, Chris, they were brought into it kicking and screaming as opposed to the NBA where I think we talked back in 2015 where Adam Silver had just written an unsolicited op-ed in New York Times saying we need to bring legalized gambling out in the light and keep it out of the shadows and make it real. And no one ever thought this would happen at the court level because New Jersey fought to have this done for years and years and lost at every level. But lo and behold, May 14th, 2018, the Supreme Court rules for New Jersey, opening the floodgates to legalize sports gambling around the country and taking away the monopoly that Nevada had. So now there are no pretenses. But the NFL, I've said this many times, they've been very hypocritical. You know, it was only five years ago they shut down a fantasy football convention with Tony Romo and so many other players because it was in Vegas.
Starting point is 00:26:34 Two years ago, they put a team in Vegas, which will start playing in September, yet the draft will be there in three months in April as they kick off Las Vegas. So they've established a franchise before the Supreme Court decision in the mecca of gambling in this country. So their mixed messages have really sort of dissolved now. They're all in. Caesars Palace is the official casino sponsor of the NFL. They have training camps every year for different teams. At the Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia, whose primary feature is an ornate casino. No. So I don't think there's no pretense anymore. You have owners like Jerry Jones and Robert Kraft
Starting point is 00:27:21 who are early investors in DraftKings. You walk into AT&T Stadium in Dallas, you walk through the DraftKings Fantasy Lounge. So there's no pretense anymore. The lines have now not even blurred. Well, you mentioned Las Vegas, and of course, Las Vegas is still the epicenter of gambling in the United States, but it looks like New Jersey's coming up on the outside. There was a report released this week by the New Jersey Division of Gaming. Sports books in New Jersey are closing in on that of Las Vegas in terms of being the most lucrative in the country. Is it really shaping up to be this, I don't want to say a cold war, but is it really shaping up to be a battle of these two titans? Or do you expect other states
Starting point is 00:28:10 to start to rival what's happening in Nevada and New Jersey? Yeah, it's going to be tough for other states because as much as I talk about sports gambling, it's just a small slice of gambling, as people in that industry know. It's just that I don't even know. It's a very small percentage of the overall handle. And, you know, when you talk about Vegas or New Jersey, which is a distant second,
Starting point is 00:28:38 You have the glitz and the glamour and the shows and the table games and the high roller rooms, and it's so much more than the sports book. That's the added advantage these resort places have that go way beyond. Now, there's some of that in Mississippi, and there's some of that in Louisiana and the offshore, but again, those places have such an advantage. I think the one thing that people ask all the time is, was the legalization of sports gambling good or bad for Nevada? Bad because they lost their monopoly, but good because it's made it so credible.
Starting point is 00:29:15 It's no longer the bookie in the back of the barbershop. And now sports gaming is credible, and therefore Nevada takes even on a more sort of elevated notion in this world. So I think good and bad for them. I've got to find a new barbershop. I don't have a bookie in the back of my barbershop. I think my dad did. Let's go back to the NFL. And this is something you and I have talked about in the past, and it's the health issue. And in the past 10, 12 months, the NFL has seen some pretty high-profile retirements from the league. Rob Gronkowski from the New England Patriots,
Starting point is 00:29:53 Andrew Luck from the Indianapolis Colts, and most recently, Luke Kuechly from the Carolina Panthers. These are all star players, all under the age of 30. And even though their careers are more than double the length of the average career of the NFL player, because I think that's somewhere still in the neighborhood of about three years, it's still noteworthy that these are players who are not in serious decline in terms of their performance on the field, but they have made the decision from a health standpoint and from a financial standpoint, I'm good in terms of money. I'm walking away from the game while I can still walk away from the game. And I'm curious, what, if anything, these retirements and any retirements like them tell
Starting point is 00:30:48 you about the future of the NFL? Yeah, I think these are notable. I have a couple of comments. One, you noted that they've played more than twice the average career, and they're walking away at the top of the game. You mentioned three players, that there's no way in God's green earth that the Colts with Luck, the Patriots with Gronkowski, and the Panthers with Kuechly were walking away from them. But, but, at some point they would. At some point, it never ends well.
Starting point is 00:31:20 You know, I was with a team that walked away from Brett Favre. I mean, this happens in this sport, and it's never pretty. And they're taking the affirmative step to do it before it's done to them. I think it's news because of that. I push back on this notion of early retirement, as I wrote in Sports Illustrated, about, you know, these guys had long careers. It doesn't seem like long in sort of the, again, the Tom Brady, Brett Favre 20-year careers. but in the scheme of things in professional football, it's a long career, and they're financially secure, and they decide they're going to opt out.
Starting point is 00:32:03 Now, we don't know how much of it is health and concussion and fears about CTE. That can only get inside the heads of those players. But it's not a trend, but I see this more happening. I see players that get to 28, 29, and they say, I'm good. You know, I'm good, and I've got money, I put in a good career, we had a good run, and I'm going to get out before the health gets me or the team gets me. Because as I always say, 98% of NFL players don't retire. They are retired by their employer.
Starting point is 00:32:44 Before we wrap up with your prediction on the Super Bowl, I want to switch sports on you and move to baseball for just a second, because even though it's the off-season for baseball, it is very much in the headlines with the cheating scandal around the Houston Astros, swirling around the Boston Red Sox. We've seen managers and GMs that have lost their jobs. To this point, players have not been directly punished by Major League Baseball. Do you expect that to happen at some point, if enough evidence comes forth, or just, I guess I'm asking you to put on your league executive and your lawyer hats on and tell me where you think this is going in terms of Major League
Starting point is 00:33:29 Baseball players. I guess what I'm, my first reaction is surprise that it only extended to management. And if it's the scheme that Major League Baseball and Commissioner Rob Manfred seem to be to him and to the powers that be at baseball. I just don't know why players aren't disciplined. They were part of the scheme. They were not unwilling actors. They participated in listening for the bang of the drum that a fastball was coming.
Starting point is 00:34:03 I don't get it. Because, again, I'm used to the NFL world where not only players are disciplined, but there hasn't been any regard for the status of the player that disciplined. We've had players like Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady, Ezekiel Elliott, et cetera, disciplined heavily. So I don't get it. I really don't. I understand the severity of the penalties for the organization, for the GM, for the coach, for the draft picks, but I just don't get it. You're right. Something more could come out to implicate the players,
Starting point is 00:34:41 and then we may see player suspensions, but I'm not following it. Now, it's not players, but managers. The ripples have extended, as people know. The erstwhile coach of the Red Sox, Cora, was involved with the Astros back then. He's gone. The erstwhile coach of the Mets was involved as a player, and he's the only player mentioned. He's now gone as Mets manager.
Starting point is 00:35:07 So I don't think we've stopped in terms of tentacles that are going to extend from this. It's a major, major scandal. Super Bowl 54, Kansas City Chiefs with their prolific offense against the San Francisco 49ers and their great defense, the classic matchup. Where do you see this game going? Gosh, gosh, you know, I just, these are two extremely fast teams and it's really the speed that jumps out at you at this game. It's going to be so entertaining.
Starting point is 00:35:41 As we talked about before, it's going to get boffo ratings. Gun to my head, I'm going to pick the San Francisco 49ers because of defense. I know Patrick Mahomes, and I know the wonderful offense of the Chiefs. I just don't trust their defense as much as I do the 49ers' defense. So 49ers by a field goal and based on a superior defense. You can read him in Sports Illustrated. You can check out the Business of Sports podcast. Andrew Brandt, always good talking to you.
Starting point is 00:36:13 Likewise. Always a pleasure, Chris. Coming up, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar. This is Motley Fool Money. Are you ready for some football? A Monday night party. Hey, hey, this is Rockin' Randolph. All right, before we get to the stocks on our radar, let's talk about you for a second.
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Starting point is 00:37:43 so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money, Chris Hill here in studio with Jason Moser, Andy Cross, and Dr. Ron Gross. Before we get to the stocks on our radar, and we go to our man behind the glass, Steve Broido, who's going to hit you with a question, as he does? It is the 20th anniversary of Steve Broido joining The Motley Fool. So, a shout-out to our man behind the glass. Steve, here's to the next 20. Thank you. All right, let's get to the stocks on our radar. Ron, you're up first. What are you
Starting point is 00:38:14 looking at this week? I'm trying to find something that looks cheap, and it ain't easy. So, I'm going to go with Tractor Supply, TSCO. The stock has really underperformed over the last year, which is really the main reason why it looks not to be too expensive. They're the largest operator of rural lifestyle retail stores in the U.S. They acquired PetSense back in 2016 as an avenue for growth. I think we'll see margin improvements going forward. Sales growth should continue. Recently announced a new CEO who is the former president of Macy's. I'll leave it to you to decide whether that's good or bad. The company has raised their dividend
Starting point is 00:38:50 every year for the past eight, only 18 times, forward earnings. They report earnings January 30th. Steve, question about tractor supply? Even if you're a rural lifestyle person, can't you just order your stuff on Amazon like everybody else? That's what makes them kind of Amazon-proof, because some of this stuff is so big and so heavy that it doesn't really lend itself to online shipping. Jason Moser, what are you looking at? Yeah, digging more into Live Oak Bank, ticker is LOB, a little shameless self-promotion here, Chris. But earlier in the week, I had the opportunity to interview the president of
Starting point is 00:39:21 the bank, Huntley Garriott, on Industry Focus. So, check that interview if you like. It was very fun, very enlightening. It's an interesting bank. It's based on a tech platform. They have no physical branches. They have a very strong presence in lending to SBA-type companies, small business administration loans. And I found out that one of their biggest points of exposure, one of their biggest borrowers, veterinary practices. Chris, this is another way to play into my favorite market in pets, apparently, at least. Neat business. I want to learn a little bit more about it. Earnings came out this week, and the market seemed to approve. So, going to enjoy digging more into this company.
Starting point is 00:40:01 Steve, question about Live Oak Bank? Sure. How do you compete with somebody like Synchrony Financial or Ally, which just seems have a huge footprint? I think that's a very good question. And really, Hundley was telling me, it all boils back down to doing something really well. They consider themselves a niche lender, focusing on businesses that other competitors out there in the space don't really know a heck of a lot about. And their technology, the data that they're able to gather, makes them a better lender and a better partner over time. Andy Cross, what's on your radar? Digging back into the IPO space, Datadog, D-D-O-G, operates a really fast-growing platform
Starting point is 00:40:33 that helps customers monitor their systems, especially tied to the cloud, and looks for data insights. The IPO stock price was around $27. Today, it's around $40, $42. $13 billion market cap, not making money, growing exceptionally fast. Revenue is growing more than 90%. Its dollar-based retention rate is up to above 140%, so its customers continue to order more more products. The likes of The Motley Fool, Amazon, Twitter, Zendesk, lots of big customers use their services. So, obviously, very volatile, new stock to the markets, but exciting growth opportunity, Datadog. Steve, question about Datadog? What's the value in having a cool name to your company? Because Datadog is a cool name.
Starting point is 00:41:18 Well, we work at a place called The Motley Fool, which I think is fairly cool. I'm not a cool person, Steve-O, so I can't really comment on that. But hey, it sounds cool to me, and the Symbol DDOG sounds good, too. Data Dog, Live Oak Bank, Tractor Supply. You got a stock you want to add to your watch list, Steve? Jason has made a compelling argument, so I'm going to check out Live Oak Bank. That is a wise pick based on clearly years of experience, Steve. Good call.
Starting point is 00:41:43 Jason Moser, Ron Gross, Andy Cross, thanks for being here. Thanks, Chris. That's going to do it for this week's edition of Motley Fool Money. Our engineer is Steve Broido. Our producer is Matt Greer. I'm Chris Hill. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next week.

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