Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing - Costco, Tesla, and Temptation Bundling
Episode Date: September 25, 2020Costco reports strong growth but shares slip. Nike just does it. AutoZone revs up revenues. Stitch Fix gets slammed. Tesla generates some buzz from Battery Day. Nikola founder and Chairman Trevor Milt...on abruptly resigns. Quibi explores strategic alternatives. And Amazon unveils an indoor drone security camera. Motley Fool analysts Andy Cross and Jason Moser discuss those stories and share two stocks on their radar: Unity and Inspire Medical. Plus, Wharton Professor and consumer behavior expert Katy Milkman talks temptation bundling and how an increase in temperature makes us bad at shopping. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Chris Hill. Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money.
From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money.
It's the Motley Fool Money radio show. I'm Chris Hill. Joining me this week,
Jason Moser and Andy Cross. Good to see you, gentlemen.
Hey, Chris. We've got the latest headlines from Wall
Street, we'll talk financial behavior with Wharton Professor Katie Milkman. And as always,
we've got a couple of stocks on our radar, but we begin with big retail. Costco's first quarter
report was pretty much everything a shareholder could want. Profits and revenue were higher than
expected. Digital sales nearly doubled. Same-store sales up more than 11%. And Jason,
shares down a little bit on Friday. Are we not entertained?
Well, I mean, it was definitely entertained. It was a good quarter.
Market is selling the stock modestly. I wouldn't read too much into it. I think part of the market's
reaction here is, we're pretty far into this pandemic, and I think we're closer to things
getting back to somewhat normal, or at least we're seeing that trend. That ultimately means
that shopping behaviors are going to start to normalize to a degree. And I think the big question
and maybe the question that the market's focused on really is, will Costco be able to hold on to
the current behavior and then keep growing from here? Or is there going to be some kind of a reset
for the business? And going to the performance that you were talking about there, I mean,
earnings per share of $3.13 versus $2.47 a year ago, very strong. Fourth quarter membership fee
income up modestly from a year ago. Total paid households, though, I thought this was really
impressive. Total paid households at the end of the quarter came in at $58.1 million. That compares
to $53.9 million a year ago. Clearly, they're getting more households to buy into that membership
model. I think the other concern is, given the state of things today, one of the big value props
for Costco is gasoline. As people don't go there to get as much gasoline, there is a little interplay
there in traffic for the stores. And we certainly saw traffic on a worldwide basis down modestly,
although in the U.S. it was up slightly. And transactions have grown a bit as people
continue to stock up. So, all in all, a very good quarter. I think the market's just really
looking forward and asking itself that question of, do we have to hit a reset button here at
some point or not? And I think that's a fair question. I think what's interesting about Costco,
we hear this a lot from a lot of retailers, and Jason, you just touched on it a little bit,
is that even though the traffic into the stores might be down, the amount they're buying once
they're in is way up. We saw this big time with Starbucks and I think for others too. So you start
to see your fewer trips to the store, but when you're there, you're stocking up, you're buying
things. And I think that really bodes well for Costco, which obviously has that history and the
actual brand of going there and buying lots of stuff, lots of big stuff. The more and more we're
stuck inside our houses, the more and more we actually need stuff that Costco sells. It's
interesting. I don't know if they talked about the business traffic being up or down, Jason,
but that might have been interesting too because so fewer people are now in offices and Costco did
serve a pretty good-sized business community. First quarter, digital sales for Nike rose
82%. Profits were higher than expected, and shares of Nike hitting another all-time high
this week, Andy. Yeah, a great quarter from Nike. Revenues
were flat, and that was ahead of estimates. But what we continue to see Nike do so well
is really innovate on the digital side. They started investing in the digital space a few
years ago. They brought on John Donahue, CEO, who came over from ServiceNow and before that
in PayPal, brought a real digital focus. Their digital sales were up 82% this quarter. That's
compared to 75% the previous quarter. They added $900 million in incremental sales just from
digital. They're seeing 200% growth in demand for the Nike Commerce app. That's just like
buying on activity. They're seeing 100% growth in monthly active users on that app. What's
important with that, Chris, is that the direct business has 10 percentage points higher gross
margin than their wholesale business. So, overall, Nike continuing to really get it done and
continuing to innovate in the space when it comes to their brand, launched Nike Maternity,
launched Nike Yoga with a fabric that they've been in production for two years in development.
They launched Space Hippies, of which we have a pair here. That's an incredible sell-through
product, which is really sustainable source shoes. So, the direct-to-consumer business for Nike and
the innovation they've been putting in there has really been helping. And the Connected Fitness,
Nike active members through the Connected Fitness app is up 60%. They had an all-time
higher percentage of users using the Nike training app. So, you get the brand, the business,
and the technology innovation they're really doing and emphasizing and investing into. And
that's been a really big win for Nike and obviously for shareholders, and the stock
is doing really well. You know, Andy, we're at that point in the
year where people are trying to figure out what sort of holiday retail year we're going
to be in for. Nike is talking pretty optimistically about the holidays, but I don't know if that
necessarily bodes great things for the retail landscape or just Nike.
No, I think it bodes better for Nike, just again, getting back to that innovation.
the push to direct-to-consumer, that's really been the innovation for them. Their stores are back
open, but the retail traffic, as I mentioned before with the retail traffic in general,
that's down for them. So, even though their traffic is down, they continue to boost growth
into that really important direct-to-consumer and really tying together the digital experience and
making it much more brand-focused with their one Nike marketplace, I think, is a big innovation
for one of the best branded consumer companies in the world, and now really becoming a technology
powerhouse in retail space. Shares of AutoZone down 6% this week,
despite a strong fourth quarter report. Profits and revenue came in higher than expected,
and Jason, same-store sales up more than 20%. My goodness.
Yeah. This was another one of those really excellent retail reports that we've seen recently,
and there have been a few of them, Nike and now AutoZone. A bit of a home improvement angle here,
I think, and the market they serve is a fairly resilient one, given the role that automobiles
play in all of our lives. And AutoZone had noticed earlier on, I mean, that the stimulus,
for example, first round of stimulus helped their line of work, and we saw the same thing play out
with Advance and O'Reilly. An additional one will likely serve them well also. And let's face it,
I mean, the stores are open for business, and there's a right way to go about things,
so traffic is relatively okay.
But they enjoyed, actually, their largest quarterly same-store sales performance ever
since going public in 1991 at 22%.
So, that tells you what kind of a quarter it was.
But now, going back to Costco, I think we have to ask ourselves the question,
is this the new normal, or are we going to have to hit a reset button?
And you don't really know there yet, but we'll get some more clues as the quarters go.
But again, the numbers, I think, came across very nicely. If you look at actual top-line revenue,
only growing around 21%, but then you see how well they were able to bring it down to the bottom line
with net income up 41.2%, earnings per share up 47.6%. They didn't make any share repurchases at
all and have kept inventory in line as well. So, when you look at this space, AutoZone and O'Reilly
are the clear leaders, like that Home Depot and Lowe's dynamic there. I suspect that even if they
have to hit a reset button with the business later on, it's still going to be a very good business
and one that shareholders should feel good about. On the flip side, Stitch Fix stumbled to
the end of its fiscal year. The fourth quarter loss was much bigger than expected. Andy, the
stock is still up around 35% over the past year, but this was one of those quarters that you look
at and you go, yeah, they've got their work cut out for them.
Yeah, Chris, it wasn't a bad quarter. They added 9% more new members. That about matches what they
did in the third quarter. Their revenues were up about 11%, revenue per client up about 2%.
But I think what people are focused on, I certainly am, is looking at the clients they
brought in during that COVID period, really between March and May, and they had those new
clients. Typically in their models and their history, those clients come back and they order
more and more, but they didn't see that. Stitch Fix really pulled back their marketing during
that time to save money, and so that hurt their subsequent fix buys, what they call their fixes,
subsequent buys for those members. And that's going to continue into the years. So, I think
that has some concerns with analysts and investors. Certainly, that's something to watch.
Otherwise, they do continue to innovate. They do continue to have progress with the members they
have been bringing in recently. So, over the last couple of months, adding more and more to their
baskets and buying more, but the concern about whether those members and the ones they brought
in this year are going to be able to continue to add additional revenue, and is their lifetime
value lower than what historically has been, I think has some concern on the analyst front
and on the investor front. How concerned should they be about the ways
in which, I'm going to call it non-traditional apparel companies, and I'm thinking primarily
of Target and the way Brian Cornell, the CEO there, has been so focused on apparel at Target
over the last two to three years. Is that a major concern or is that sort of on the back burner?
No, I think it is a concern. I mean, the competitors are getting more and more
sophisticated when it comes to digital experiences. We just talked about Nike and
there are many, many others out there. Stitch Fix has been pivoting and had a lot of success
with what they call the direct buy. So you no longer have to order something, wait for it
delivered, you can actually now buy stuff directly from their website and that's outperforming their
expectations. There's a lot of return purchase health there. So they are continuing to innovate.
They have these digital stylists that they work with. They have a lot of data scientists that
they work with to help get the best measurements and the best fit. But they're not the only ones
in this space. And there's a lot of innovation from some really good retailers out there. A lot
of obviously challenges from the retail space too. But on the digital side, a lot of retailers
is doing some really good things out there. Coming up, if you're looking for a home
security device, Amazon has a brand new solution you're going to find either intriguing or
terrifying. Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Chris Hill here with Jason Moser and Andy Cross.
Shares of Tesla down 8% this week. CEO Elon Musk made a number of announcements at the company's
Investor Day. Apparently, some investors didn't like what they heard. Andy, to the extent that
there was a theme here, it was timelines being pushed back. The cheaper model of the vehicle
is going to take a few years. The batteries that were unveiled at the event are not going to go
into mass production until 2021. It seems like Musk was being pretty reasonable.
Yeah. I think there was also maybe from the Battery Day event that they didn't have quite
the huge, big announcement maybe some people were expecting, especially on addressing the
so-called million-mile battery. But still, overall, still a lot of innovation from Tesla
coming out with the tabless battery, so they removed the tab that connects the cell to what
it's powering, to increase that range by 16%, boost car power by 600%, to drop the kilowatt
per hour. So, that's the real key. They have to drop that kilowatt per hour because they want to
be able to go to that $25,000 level for the mass market to really get the car down to a level
mass market can afford it. From the leaked email about that, the deliveries in Q3 of 2020 will be
at record levels, but not so much greater maybe than what they were the last record in the end of
Q4. So overall, it is interesting when Tesla continues to set, Jason mentioned expectations,
So, if he doesn't continue to really boost those expectations for massive growth, those
growth and momentum investors who have been getting involved, who don't have a long-term
horizon, probably start selling off the stock. Well, it could be worse. Nikola shares were
down 40% this week after founder Trevor Milton resigned as chairman of the board and deleted
his Twitter account in the wake of fraud charges. Both the SEC and the Justice Department are
investigating the electric truck maker on the potential that the company misled investors.
Jason, this really isn't a good look. Maybe it's all a big misunderstanding,
but the immediate resignation combined with disappearing from social media really doesn't
look good. No, it doesn't. I tell you, there was a pretty good little trolling effort there
on Twitter where somebody had essentially turned him into a male version of Elizabeth Holmes.
and put them in the black turtleneck with a little bit longer blonde hair, and you're thinking,
oh, my God, this is bad blood all over again. Maybe we are jumping the gun here. Maybe this
is not as bad as it looks. But you know what, where there is smoke, there's often fire,
and there are enough red flags here for investors to at least take pause and say, you know what,
there's no reason to rush in anything like this. They don't have a product, they don't make any
money. I tell you what is amazing, it's still a $7 billion market capitalization company.
That is the time that we're living in right now. It does make you realize, economics aside,
what Tesla and what Elon Musk has done to date and their ability really to keep on moving forward,
and all of these companies trying to play catch up, and you're really starting to see
some desperation from competitors. Andy, it really seems like there
are other places to invest your money. Yeah. His response to the Hindenburg
research report was, this is all you got out on Twitter? Really, another example of why
you really don't be chasing these stocks from founders that you just not have the confidence
in that we really need to see if they're going to build a business. Like Jason said, a $7 billion
company, no revenue, all hype, a lot of promises out there. SEC investigation, BP backed away
from their partnership to build the hydrogen fuel stations. There are so many high-quality
growth companies out there that you can invest in that is so far less speculation.
Quibi, the fledgling video streaming service that launched earlier this year to much fanfare
and very few subscribers, is reportedly exploring strategic alternatives. Among the alternatives
being explored, an IPO or selling the company outright to Amazon, Apple, Disney, or Comcast.
Jason, all of those companies have deep pockets, and none of them should spend it on this business.
Well, Chris, I won the drawing this week for our monthly pizza day, so I was lucky
enough to have a pizza delivered here to our home, thanks to The Motley Fool. With my girls,
both here doing school for the day, that pizza is now gone, so I'm exploring strategic alternatives
as far as what I'm going to do for lunch, because it's resulting in nothing. I think
very much Quibi is going to ultimately result in nothing. It feels like the question that should
have been asked, that probably was not asked when this business was started, was if the content is
there, but there's nobody to watch it, does it even exist? Because you can have content if you
want, but if you don't have people watching it, who cares? They do have some content. I don't
know that it's very compelling. I think the biggest problem is that I don't think anyone,
including Mr. Katzenberg, really knows what Quibi is to begin with. It was never very well-defined.
I don't know if it's supposed to be social or streaming or social streaming. What void is it
trying to fill? Much like investing, sometimes you just got to be able to call it, admit the mistake,
and move on, or you just keep burning money. I have a feeling that is what we're watching play
out here. Perhaps with these connections in the industry, there is some type of interest in making
an acquisition. But I'll tell you what, any company that jumped in there to make an acquisition of
this business, I would hold that against them because I think it's essentially right down to
zero in very short order. Security is a priority for any
homeowner and Amazon is here to help. Remember back in early 2018 when Amazon bought Ring,
the smart doorbell company? Well, this week, Amazon unveiled the Ring Always Home Cam,
a flying drone camera that patrols the inside of your house. Andy, it's coming in 2021. It's
a cool $250. How many do you think you'll be buying? Well, we don't even have an Alexa in
our house. So I think the answer is zero. I got to say when I first saw it, it's pretty cool.
The little thing pops out when you're gone, flies away. The commercial I think they have
out there, the one that I saw is, I don't think super inspiring with what it shows
with the criminal breaking into the house. But I do think that technology looks kind of neat for
those who really care about their monitoring. It gets to the big questions of privacy and data and
who is owning what and what are they seeing and do I really need this? But overall, if you don't
need, you know, if you have a lot of cameras in your house or you have a large house, something
like this actually could be kind of attractive. We know Jeff Bezos at Amazon is not afraid to
spend on innovation. If things work, great, but if they don't, move on to the next thing.
All right, Jason Moser, Andy Cross. Guys, we'll see you later in the show.
Everyone else, get out your textbooks because we're going to class. Wharton
Professor Katie Milkman is next, so stay right here. This is Motley Fool Money.
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Chris Hill. Does a rise in the temperature really
make us bad at shopping? That's just one of the questions I posed to Katie Milkman when we talked
earlier this week. She's a tenured professor of behavioral sciences at the Wharton School
of the University of Pennsylvania and host of the podcast Choiceology. We'll pick things up
when I asked Professor Milkman about financial windfalls and how we should deal with them when
they come our way. I think one of the things that behavioral science has shown people do poorly is
think about financial windfalls. We tend not to make the best use of these opportunities.
The first and best use of that windfall is to look at your debts. If you have debt, you want
to pay that down. You want to start with the highest interest debt and pay as much of that
down as possible. If you can pay that off completely, then go to your second highest
interest, source of debt, and so on. Because debts are something that they can become a vicious
cycle, right? That interest, it just accumulates and accumulates. And it's part of the reason that
half of Americans didn't have that $400 they might need for an emergency when surveyed just
a couple of years ago. And so that is my number one most important piece of advice.
Right after you've paid down your debts, I think having that emergency fund be the next
place you think about putting a windfall is really important because we don't appreciate
actually how often we are likely to run into emergencies. There's this really fascinating
research led by Abby Sussman, who's a professor at the University of Chicago's Booth School of
Business, showing that when people look at their inflows and outflows into accounts over the course
of a year, they'll see like all these weird things every month. They sort of think, oh, you know,
I have to pay my rent. I have to pay these other consistent bills, my car insurance and so on.
They recognize that those are recurring expenses and they think about that as their budget.
But then they'll see these like weird things that come up every month. Oh, you know, I had an
unexpected doctor's appointment. Well, that's just unexpected. That doesn't happen normally. They
don't think about that in their budget. Oh, then the next month their drain broke and they had to
pay, you know, a plumber to come and do repairs. But that was an emergency. Basically what they do
is they look over the year and they discount all these things that come up. And they say,
that's not something I have to plan for. But it turns out they come up every month. They're
different every month. But something always happens. And that's part of why I think people
don't make the wisest budgets, because of this mentality that if it isn't a constant and
consistent payment, I'm not going to think of it as something I need to account for. But these
surprises are predictable. They come up over and over again. So we need to have that emergency
cash reserve to cover that in our budget. So that would be my second piece of advice.
And I think that's enough. I'll let you ask any other questions you have, but I hope that helps.
It absolutely does help. One of the things that you've written about deals with how we can
change habits and obviously change habits that aren't great into more positive habits. It's
something you call temptation bundling. Before I ask you to explain temptation bundling,
just out of curiosity because you have this expertise how many of your students or maybe
what percentage of your students in a given year will say to you in an office setting like a one-on-one
setting hey by the way uh aside from the curriculum i've got this one half like how many are seeking
out your advice for how to improve a single bad habit they have that's very common and by the way
I welcome it. And the classes I teach are about behavior change. And I think my students,
you know, they take the insights from class as useful for their careers. You know, how can they
manage a team at work and try to help people make better decisions? How can they make better
decisions in their finances? How can they make better decisions in their personal lives? And,
you know, solve piccadilly, like little problems that come up over and over. And I think that's
great. I want it to be all of the above. So it's very common for students to come talk to me about
personal problems as well as professional ones. And I, I hope I can, I hope I am consistently
helpful with both. Temptation bundling. What is it and how can I make it work for my benefit?
So temptation bundling is actually, uh, by the way, I should say I do what I call me search. So,
so many scholars study problems they have and try to figure out like, oh, what are systematic
solutions? Um, so you'll people, you'll see people who like struggle with social interactions and
social psychologist trying to figure out how can I be better at a cocktail party or economists who
struggled with their finances, like becoming experts in this area. So I do that too. I
definitely struggle with maintaining good habits and I study it in part because I think it's so
weird and quirky and interesting and that we can come up with solutions. Temptation bundling is a
solution to a problem I had when I was a graduate student that I realized could help other people
too. So when I was a graduate student, I had two problems. One problem was at the end of a
really long day. I was incredibly tired and I found it really hard to motivate myself to go to
the gym, even though I knew it was like good for me in the longterm and that I needed to exercise
to have energy. It just wasn't where I wanted to be after all those classes. But then the other
problem was what I really wasted time doing when I should have been studying was I was really into
reading lowbrow fiction. So I would like curl up with a page turner when I should have been doing
my homework. And I realized I could actually solve both of those problems at once if I did
the following. I only let myself read page turners while I was at the gym exercising.
And by doing that, all of a sudden I stopped wasting time at home reading these books when
I should have been working on my problem sets for my classes. And at the end of a long day,
I found myself craving a trip to the gym, like eager to find out what happens next in my novel.
And when I was at the gym, I didn't even notice the time passing and it wasn't even painful to
work out because I was like, you know, so engaged in this gripping thriller that I just, I didn't,
I didn't notice. Uh, so it solved all of these problems for me. And I realized like, maybe that
actually, I started calling it temptation bundling. I was like, maybe I'm not the only one
who has like dual problems that could be solved this way. What if we, one could systematically
study this and see if it helps people to, to combine something that is really tempting to them
with something that they know they should do, but sort of resist. They, they, uh, often feel
they shouldn't, you know, they're too lazy to actually get to doing. So can we make these
combinations? And I started seeing other opportunities to do it in other parts of life.
So we've studied it and shown that actually, if you, for instance, lock people's tempting audio
novels at the gym and tell them they can only access them at the gym, it helps people exercise
up to 50% more. Those are some results from a big experiment we ran early on. This kind of
combination helps people a lot. And then we also have recognized that it's not just exercise and,
you know, tempting books or binge watching TV. There's all sorts of other ways in life you can
combine things. So some of my students only let themselves pick up, you know, their favorite drink
at Starbucks that they crave every morning when they're heading to the library to study. And those
two things are combined for them. Or you could imagine only allowing yourself to binge watch
your favorite TV show while you're doing household chores and listen to your favorite podcast while
you're out for a run. So you can sort of pick what are these things that you might be able to combine
to get the best of both worlds. When I was doing some research, I came across a piece that you
wrote for the Washington Post a few years ago. Time got away from me, so I didn't read it. But
the headline was amazing, so I'm going to ask you about it now. The headline was,
heat doesn't just make us cranky, it makes us dumb shoppers. Now, I'm very familiar with the
concept that you should never go grocery shopping when you're hungry. I'm aware of that one and I
try not to do that. And now that I've come across this headline, I'm grateful that the weather has
turned wonderfully autumnal here in Northern Virginia. What is it about the heat that makes
us dumb when it comes to shopping? Oh my gosh, that's such a funny headline. And by the way,
I should say, if you write op-eds for newspapers, they pick the headlines, you don't. I think they
have some optimization algorithm. That's a good headline.
I guess. It was an article actually about research, and I was sort of reviewing other
people's research showing that our emotions are triggered by the weather and that on unusually
hot days, we actually are angrier and we make a lot of worse decisions. So actually, my favorite
studies, not about shopping, and it was featured prominently in this. It was about baseball players.
Pitchers are more likely to hit hitters on hot days, on unusually hot days. And the analysis
was really carefully done to control for like, oh, are they sweatier? It was like unusually hot
days, unexpected heat that seemed to make people angrier and more likely to try to hurt players
from the opposing team. But we make bad decisions about all sorts of things when we're overheated,
when the weather is unseasonable. We also, by the way, are more likely to believe in climate change,
it turns out, on days that are unseasonably warm. So it's really interesting how we're affected by
these fluctuations in temperature. Our environments shape our decisions in all sorts of interesting
ways. It really seems like the more I learn about your field of expertise, almost like the more
self-aware we all have to be if we want to sort of optimize who we are at work, who we are in our
personal lives. It can sound both rewarding, but also a little daunting. Yes, I think that's true.
The field that I'm a part of, I'm a behavioral scientist. And what we do really is we study the
imperfections in human nature, the ways that people deviate from being like perfect, optimal,
rational decision makers who are like, you know, just like calculators like Captain Spock from
Star Trek, right? Who never make a silly move. And recognizing all your mistakes and all your
flaws can be a little bit overwhelming because there are a lot of them. But I actually, I think
a more useful way to think about it is one, like recognize it's okay. Humans, it's not just you,
we're all flawed. We don't come with perfect operating systems. So cut yourself some slack
when you screw up, when you yell at someone and you shouldn't have, or you make an impulsive
purchase or buy a stock that you wish you hadn't or whatever. It's not like you are the most flawed
human in the world. We're all flawed. Everybody screws up. It's human nature. So I think that,
one, is empowering. And then two, it actually doesn't matter most of the time because most
of our decisions are low stakes. If you pick the wrong flavor of ice cream, it's not going to be
the end of the world. If you pick the wrong spouse, that's a bigger deal. If you really make
the wrong choice of career, that's a bigger deal. If you buy the wrong house, that's a bigger deal.
So I think it's useful to say, don't worry about, don't sweat the small stuff. And the fact that
you will goof, that's human nature. But it can be useful to learn more about making good decisions
and really focus and try to talk to experts when you're making those big life decisions.
How have you applied this to your financial life? How does Katie Milkman invest?
I buy index funds and I sit on them. That is what I do. So, you know, I do not believe that I know
how to do better, frankly, on the stock market than like a monkey throwing darts. And so, you
know, I have a diversified portfolio of index funds and, uh, uh, you know, my retirement
portfolio when I, I contribute the maximum amount to my 403B plan at my university and it's in a
target date fund. And, uh, that is my, that is my mantra. Like, I don't think I can pick the
right stocks. Uh, I don't, I never cash out when there's a crisis, I leave it. I don't look at it
regularly. There's research showing that when you check your stock portfolio more frequently,
you're also more likely to invest in bonds rather than stocks. And stocks, obviously,
there's a premium for equity. So you want to, you know, I just don't look. I don't look during
these bumps because I want to smooth over those periods. Actually, sorry, I'm quoting that
research wrong. It's a paper on the equity premium puzzles. And here's what it was. It shows, it's by
Richard Thaler from University of Chicago and Shlomo Benartzi. And I was giving you the punch
line, but not actually the finding. So the finding is that you can explain away the equity
premium puzzle, which is that like, why isn't everyone investing in stocks? Everyone should
be investing and they dramatically outperform bonds. And the answer is if people looked at
their portfolio once a year, that would be often enough given our degree of loss aversion, which
is how much we hate seeing our portfolio go down. Once a year would be enough to explain the equity
premium puzzle in terms of people's feelings of loss that they would experience and their
aversion to that. That could explain the whole thing. That leads me to say the less often we
look, the less often we'll experience that loss and the less likely we will be to pull out of
stocks and make the wrong decision to be heavily in box. If you want to hear more from Katie
Milkman, check out the Choiceology podcast or head to katimilkman.com. You can get more of
her thoughts and research by signing up for her free email newsletter. Andy Cross and Jason Moser
are coming right back with a couple of stocks you may want to put on your watch list. So don't go
anywhere. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
As always, people on the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about,
and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against,
so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Chris
Hill here once again with Andy Cross and Jason Moser. Our email address is radioatfool.com.
question from Adam Travis in Brooklyn. He writes, I'm a new investor with just one year's experience
so far. Aurora Cannabis was the first stock I bought last year, and it's done just about as
badly as a stock can possibly do. Any advice for a stock market novice like myself? Andy,
Adam's got an experience that I think is common for a lot of people who are just starting out.
all the more reason you want to build out that portfolio as soon as you possibly can.
Yeah, you really want to be able to diversify that portfolio. So, yes, that stock has not
worked out. We do have those sometimes that don't work out in our portfolio. I certainly do,
and I know many of us do. So, you want to make sure you diversify that portfolio,
building out your highest quality candidates, continuing to save and invest as a new investor.
That's really important. And also, make sure when you diversify, you can also think about
very low-call index funds and ETFs, too, to really get that broad diversification in your portfolio.
Don't be a one-stock wonder. Yeah, Jason, we've seen that before,
right? We've heard from people who've said, I bought one stock, it went down, and I'm out of
the stock market for life. Yeah, and that's the challenge, too, right, for new investors,
especially because when you're getting started, really, you're starting from zero. And so,
for a while, you are not going to be diversified because you're going to buy one stock and then
another and another. So, it does take some time. And I think that's why when you're getting
started, like Andy said, you either start with something like an index fund or you start
with companies in more reliable spaces, with more reliable business models and more history
of success. Something like, you know, we're talking about Costco. I mean, that's been
a wonderful investment for so many folks for so long. So, just be aware of that. When you
pursue those new markets like marijuana, for example, there's potential, but they have
a lot to prove still. Alright, let's get to the stocks on
our radar. Our man behind the glass, Dan Boyd, is going to hit you with a question. Andy Cross,
you're up first. What are you looking at this week? Great. I'm going with Inspire Medical
Systems, symbol INSP, a $3.3 billion technology health company that aims to help the 100 million
people worldwide who suffer from sleep apnea. It created the first closed-loop implantable
stimulator to monitor breathing and deliver a little pulse if it notices a little block in the
breathing pattern. So, it's helping 17 million potential people in the U.S. It's an alternative
to the CPAP machine that you, Dan, may have seen advertised on TV and is currently widely used.
It's addressing a $10 billion market opportunity, which is more than $500,000 per year who are
qualify for this kind of a device. So it's not a lot of revenue, very innovative, really focused
on helping sleep apnea around the world. So I'm looking at Inspire Medical, INSP, Dan.
Dan, question about Inspire Medical? Well, Chris, not so much of a question as a comment.
Sometimes I go to conventions and sometimes I share a room with people to cut down on costs.
And one time I shared a room with the guy who brought his CPAP machine, and I was sent to the underworld every night for the entirety of that con because it was like a fan, but three times as loud.
That person should be one of the 9,000 people who Inspire has helped with their sleep apnea problem to date, Dan.
Jason Moser, what are you looking at this week?
Yeah. I'm excited to see Unity Software, ticker U, finally go public. They are now
trading on the public markets as of this week. Unity Software operates a 3D development platform.
Ultimately, they have software for creators. They create, run, monetize interactive and real-time
content, 2D, 3D, mobile phones, tablets, PCs, consoles, very large presence in augmented
reality, virtual reality devices. Reputation for a really strong presence in the gaming industry,
but they have done a very good job of stepping beyond just the gaming industry. Whether it's
healthcare or engineering, aviation, anything. Unity is becoming a platform for creators
everywhere. We're seeing a lot of impressive numbers. As of June of this year, they had
approximately one-and-a-half million monthly active creators in just about every country
around the globe and the applications developed were downloaded over 3 billion times per month
in 2019 on over 1.5 billion unique devices. Clearly, a company with a very big reach and
glad to see it out there for investors now. Dan, question about Unity Software?
Absolutely. Jason, the video game space is very crowded, very competitive,
and also very expensive to produce. What makes Unity special? How does it stand out?
Yeah, I think that really is in the immersive content, the augmented and virtual reality
content that they're able to help produce. That really is seen as the next leap forward
in gaming and other types of immersive experiences. What do you want to add to your watch list,
Dan? I'm looking at Inspire. I mean,
if there's anything to cut down on snoring in the wild, man, I'm all for it.
All right. We're out of time. That's going to do it for this week's show. Thanks
Thanks for listening.
We'll see you next week.
