Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing - Investing When You’re Down

Episode Date: February 5, 2022

Some of your stocks getting stung? Ours too. Tim Beyers and Robert "Bro" Brokamp offer some mindset help and historical perspective on this Saturday classroom. They discuss how you can be opportunistic in a down market, and how to think about your cash position. If you have cash and our looking for stock ideas, our free Investing Starter Kit includes 15 stocks and 5 ETFs. For a copy just go to http://fool.com/StarterKit Stocks: SBUX, AMZN Host: Tim Beyers Guest: Robert Brokamp Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

I've tried to make this point, bro, like even if you don't dollar cost average like every month, if what you do is buy a little bit at a time, you're still going to get ownership in businesses at different price points and gathering a whole bunch of different price points is just, it's a little bit like eating vegetables. It's just good for you. I'm Chris Hill, and that was Motley Fool's Senior Analyst, Tim Beyers. If your portfolio is like mine, over the past few weeks, you've probably seen some red and felt some pain. Today, Tim talks with Robert Brokamp, Certified Financial Planner and the Motley Fool's Resident Retirement Expert. They offer some tips on mindset, some questions to

consider before you hit the sell button, and they discuss ways to be opportunistic in a down market. Welcome, Fools. We're going to talk some market volatility here. I'm Tim Beyers, here with me is Robert Brokamp. Bro, how are you feeling? Is market volatility getting to you? Every once in a while, it absolutely is. It's a mixed bag, really. On the one hand, And no one likes to see their net worth drop. On the other hand, if you are in a situation where you have some cash on the side, or you're in the accumulation stage of your life, you are buying stocks at cheaper prices. So, it really depends an awful lot on where you are along the road to retirement. Put a pin in that for a second, because I think that's a really important point.

Knowing where you are and what your goals are is particularly important. But let's just assess, As we start out here, where we are at this moment, the market has been incredibly volatile. As we're taping here, this is a few days before when this podcast recording drops. You may be hearing this over the weekend, and we were recording on Monday. But we've seen a lot of days where the market started up or started down and then just completely reversed. It wouldn't surprise me at all if that's happening again. This kind of rollercoaster volatility, I think that's the part that may be new for investors who've been around for a while. And if you're a new investor and have never seen this before, this is normal-ish. We've seen a lot of drawdowns

over the course of time, a lot of bear markets. But things seem to be moving much faster these days, Robert. If we put these in some perspective, stocks are moving up and down maybe a 10% to 20% moves in the matter of days and sometimes hours versus in years past, that might be weeks or months. You think that's fair to say? Yeah, I would think so. Especially if you are a newer investor and you're investing in certain companies that have gone down considerably more than the market. As we speak now, S&P 500 is down maybe almost 10% for the year. NASDAQ and S&P 600, which is small cap stocks, down maybe closer to 12% to 14%. But something like a third of the stocks are down by 30% to 40%. It's really just happened for many of these stocks in the last

month. It can be very shocking if you're not used to it. Right. Let's address the elephant in the room. Most of those stocks, they are stocks recommended by Motley Fool Services, full stop. And we know that. We know that that is what's happening here to a lot of members and particularly new members. So we have new members who've come in and we've seen this story a lot. It's heartbreaking, bro, because we have somebody who comes in and they've taken our recommendations and then suddenly they have multiple stocks, maybe the majority of stocks in their portfolio are down somewhere to 30% to 50%. If that's you, this podcast is aimed at helping you navigate this right now because the instinct you may have in this moment is to say, this is a bad environment,

This was a mistake and I need to get out. And we're going to talk about why and a little bit why it may not be a good time to get out. But I do, I mean, that pain is real, bro. I mean, somebody sees that on their brokerage statement, they see that much red, they go to CNBC or they go to our site, they go to Yahoo Finance and they see that much red. It causes real emotional pain. Maybe this isn't everybody. I'll just only speak to it from my perspective. But I think when you start to see that red, Robert, the first thing that happens is you start to reevaluate. I don't know if I'm going to get to do what I want to do. For example, am I going to have to delay retirement? That's a real thought that happens, right?

Robert Brokamp Yeah, absolutely. Ultimately, that's why we're investing. We're not investing so that we can see bigger numbers on our brokerage accounts. We're investing because we want to pay for something in the future. For most people, that's retirement. It could be college savings. It could be a second home. But we all have goals. And it just feels very difficult when you think you're at a certain pace to reach that goal. And then after a month or two or three, you now seem farther behind. And I would say, the pain is real. And I think it's important to know that we're right there with you. Right. Many of the stocks that you own that are down 30%, 40%, 50%, we own as well.

Now, having the benefit of being a long-term investor, I joined the Fool in 1999. I was a financial advisor for a few years before that. I've been through this. I can just tell you that the pain is real. It hurts now. But if you stick it out, you'll be happy that you did. Yeah. Well, let's talk about some of the historical data there. I joined as a contractor back in 2003. And so, I've been through multiple market down cycles, including investing through the great financial crisis. You and I both invested through the dot-com and then subsequent dot-bomb periods. If you've been at this for a while, you know that every market drawdown is different. And so, what we were talking about just a couple of minutes ago is, what

seems to make this market drawdown different is it's even faster than what we've seen previously. In other words, the drawdown acceleration is going even faster than it usually goes. David Gardner has made this statement before, and it's a great one. In talking about markets, he says, the market always goes down faster than it goes up, but it goes up more than it goes down. This is a slightly different market drawdown in that it's happening faster, but market drawdowns are still market drawdowns. Let's talk about some stats, some things we know about market drawdowns, beginning with the most important one, I think. The market goes down once every three years, but on average, two out of every three years, the market is up, right?

Right. Exactly. And I'll draw it back all the way back to 1928. And I'm going to use some stats from Ben Carlson of Redholz Wealth Management. You have to expect that roughly two-thirds of the years that the market is going to go down 10%, just in the course of the year. And you can expect 20% declines about a quarter of the years. And then you have 10% of the years, you can expect drawdowns of 30% to 40%. You have to expect that these types of things happen. I think what feels different about now is these stocks that were sort of the darlings of 2020 and even the beginning of 2021 have seen significant drops that probably a lot of people aren't used to. We have members who want to know,

like, have we seen this before? 30%, 40%, 50% decline from a high, and then that stock has come back. The answer is yes, we've seen that a lot. It's not just with Netflix and Amazon, which are the most often cited ones. Intuitive Surgical, MongoDB, drawn down over 30% several times on the way to multi-bagger returns. Back in 2006, David wrote a piece for Fool.com in which literally the headline was, Meet the World's Worst Investor. That felt a little tricky if you were to click into it. You're like, who could this person be? And David was profiling himself. And what he was talking about is, during that time, right around 2005, 2006, the Nasdaq, in the space of a very short period of time, was down 12%. And many of the stocks and rule breakers

were bleeding red. And I believe at that time, Intuitive Surgical, in fact, was down like 50% to 60%, just getting absolutely murdered. And so, he wrote in that article, he said, I wish my stocks were down 12%. It was that bad. And so, the reason I bring this up is because it's not just the headline stocks that we've talked about, like Netflix and Amazon. This was so bad at one time in Motley Fool Rule Breakers that the entire scorecard was negative. And some of the major winners that you know, if you're in that service, were down just absolutely massively. And so, David said, you could call me the world's worst investor right now. Now, of course, we know, with the benefit of hindsight, that David is far from the world's worst. He's

arguably one of the world's greatest investors, right? So, we know that he's definitely not one of the world's worst investors. But this is part of the math that comes up. Bro, I wonder if there is a stock that you have stuck with over the course of years that you saw get absolutely trashed that has since come back for you and been a real winner? Yeah. The stock I would choose is Starbucks. I own it. I think it's a great example because everyone knows it. Everyone looks back and probably thinks, well, of course, that was a sure winner. Everyone loves Starbucks stock. But that actually wasn't the case. It hit almost $20 in 2006. And then basically, it began a three-year slide to almost $4. And it didn't get back

to $20 until around 2011. So, that was basically five years of being flat for a company that is used by everyone and beloved by most. And of course, nowadays, now it's almost $100 per share. And you'll find many other great stocks that spent a long time essentially being flat to down. Microsoft, I think, is another great example. It hit its dot-com peak actually in 1999, so before the rest of the tech stocks. It fell, and it did not exceed its 1999 peak until 2016. Yeah. And with extreme valuations. And there's a legitimate question there that I do want to address, because we have some people who are saying, you were recommending stocks at all-time highs, and they're never coming back to those levels. They look back to that time,

bro, of 1999 and the dot-com euphoria, and they say, that's the period we've been in. Now, the reckoning is coming, and you just recommended all of these growth stocks at generational high valuations, and they're never coming back. The answer to that is, that may be true in some cases. That is absolutely possible. I'll also say, just to validate what some folks have said here, that if a stock is down 80% or 90%, there is a chance that it is not coming back. That is absolutely possible. So, I'm not going to dismiss the legitimate concerns that people have. So, what can you do in those sorts of situations? And we've said for a long time, and if you haven't heard us say this, that's on us. So, I'm going to say it now so that

you can maybe put some framing around this. And I'd love for you to add to this, Robert. We want you to be a net buyer of stocks in all markets, including when they're at generational highs. Now, that does not mean we want you to go all in and say like, okay, I've picked my spot. The Motley Fool said this is a great buy. I'm going all in on this 52-week high. We never want you doing that, ever. What we really do like is if you're a net buyer of stocks on a regular basis. I'll pick up on one thing you said. I think it is important to remember that there are some stocks that won't come back. Often, people will say when we talk about Amazon or Netflix, we're always just cherry-picking. There's a survival bias. There's survival

basis. But some won't. My favorite example is GE. You and I, growing up, thought of GE as the bluest chip of all the blue chips. It peaked in 2000. It's still almost 80% below its all-time high. If you would have told someone in the 90s that GE would provide that type of return, they wouldn't have believed you. There are some times that will happen, which is why it's fundamental that you own at least 25 stocks. Me personally, I think you should own even more, at least until you become so experienced and successful as an investor that you can handle a more concentrated portfolio. To get to your point about the mathematics of dollar cost averaging, I'm not going to give the math itself, but basically it is this.

You want to be a net buyer of companies. You want to be an accumulator of companies as you are working through your career and getting to that point where you'll have to turn some of those companies into cash. I'm 15 years from retirement, so I'm thinking of all the 401 contributions I'm going to be making over the next several years. If the market goes down and stays down for a while, that just means I'm going to be buying more companies at cheaper prices. There are many examples of people who have done the same thing at past peaks, whether it was dot-com crash or even farther back to 1987 when the Dow dropped 20% in one day. If someone just started investing on that day, the very peak, but then continually

made additional investments along the way, that person would be a multi-millionaire. Even though you get to that peak, once it comes down, you're just buying companies at cheaper prices along the way. By the way, if you're reinvesting your dividends, the same thing, which is why Jeremy Siegel, the professor at Wharton, has called dividend reinvestment the recovery accelerator, because it's automatically doing some dollar cost averaging for you, where the cash is just buying more shares of the companies, which then produce more dividends, which buy more shares of the companies, and so on and so on. I mean, it's great advice. I've tried to make this point, bro. Even if you don't dollar cost

average every month, if what you do is buy a little bit at a time, you're still going to get ownership in businesses at different price points. And gathering a whole bunch of different price points, it's a little bit like eating vegetables. It's just good for you. And it allows you to buy at a high. I'll give a good example here. There's a portfolio that I run where the stock has just gotten absolutely crushed. As part of that overall position, the stock I'm talking about here is Fastly. We bought some back when it was down at lows it hasn't even reached yet. We've got an initial position in there. Then we added more. And then at one point, we added some more money. And it was at a high that just felt like a stretch.

It was close to, I think, $130 a share. And we had some members that bought there. And my message at the time was like, be slow, be careful, do not go all in. We're adding a little bit because we believe in the company, but we're not doing a doubling down or anything like that. The net position is still up, but that's only because we have several different price points. We added to it across several different price points. So, you can add to your stocks. It doesn't have to be every single month, but do add to them a little bit at a time. It's okay to kind of dip your toe in the water, and then a little bit more, and then a little

bit more, and then a little bit more. So, before we wrap here, bro, a couple things. There's a couple of stories I want to tell here, and then we want to give some very specific takeaways, kind of remind folks of what we've been saying here, and distill them into a couple of very practical things they can do. Two stories, quickly. The first is the biggest investing mistake I ever made, that if you hear us, and we sometimes hear this, Robert, I don't know if you've ever had a similar mistake like this. But as The Motley Fool, we're motley, but one of the things that's fairly common across the investors on the team is we're reluctant to

sell. And this story I'm going to tell you is one of the reasons why. It's because it's more costly, in my experience, to sell badly than it is to buy badly. It's more costly to sell badly than it is to buy badly. And here is my story along these lines, bro. I've told this too many times before, and it still hurts. I still hate it. But it was 1999. I bought my initial shares of Amazon. It was about $1,000 worth of Amazon.com stock, because Jeff Bezos was on the cover of Time Magazine, Time's Person of the Year. By 2002, the stock had fallen to $7 a share, and I dumped it. You don't have to do very much math to know that selling at $7 a share was a catastrophic mistake. There's a practical impact here.

I mean, our oldest son had a first choice of college that we could have used those funds if I had stuck with it and not sold it to probably pay at least a couple of years of tuition at this really good school. But I was not patient, and I sold out of that. So I'll pause there for a second. You don't have to top my story, bro. but if you got one, I'll take it. Well, I will say this. I hardly ever sell. And there are stocks that I wish I did sell. Because there are stocks that are not going to

do well. I'm sure, Tim, in your history, there are times when you have sold a stock and you were right to sell that stock. But the thing is, holding on to a great company, what we believe, and we have demonstrated in our history at The Motley Fool, is that holding on to a great company will do so well that it overwhelms the bad picks. Motley Fool history is full of bad picks. But our record is so good is because we hold on to these ones that do so well, they make up for all the losses. I will tell you how I manage things. And I don't sell. Like I said, there's some I probably should have. But I basically follow a general rule of having 10% of cash on the side. And it's a pretty standard guideline

from Motley Fool Services. Assuming you have a pretty high risk tolerance and you're more than a decade from whatever goal you have. And like I said, I'm 15 years from retirement. When that drops to about 5% because my stocks have done so well, I will do things like maybe not reinvest my dividends. Let them accumulate in cash. Maybe put a portion of my 401k contributions in cash so that I build up that cash hoard so that then when I feel like there are good opportunities, I will buy more. If I ever get to a point where my cash is 15% because the stock market has come down, that's when I really go all in. And I would say anyone who is more than 10 to 15 years from retirement or when they need the money, history says you're going to be fine

in the stock market. Stocks have made money in about 94% of 10-year holding periods and almost all 15-year holding periods. Now, we know many people listening are not in that situation. they're closer to or in retirement. And it definitely makes sense once you are 10 to 15 years and maybe you're a little bit more conservative or moderate, moderate talents to do a little bit less of that. But history shows that if you've got that timeframe, you're probably going to be okay. So let's boil down some, some last bits of advice here. And I'm going to tailor this a little bit because you made a good point here, Robert, that we have a lot of members. The ones who are hurting the most right now are older, 60s, 70s, maybe some in their 80s. We saw some people just in

the last couple of weeks who were just really upset. That pain resonates. I really hate it because I've heard from some people who think, I might have to delay my retirement or scale back what I thought I needed to do. That's real. I want to give one piece of advice here to start with, bro, and then I'd love for you to react to this. This is something that I'm doing that I think is reasonable. If you are in an older age bracket and you're in retirement and you're like, what do I do now? I think the number one thing that I would do in your shoes is make sure I had five years of cash set aside for my retirement needs. If there's other capital after living expenses and savings, then maybe I can think about doing some other investing. But I really want to

have those five years settled. What we know from our research is that crazy markets tend to at least settle a little bit if you give it a five-year period. What's your thought on that? Anything you want to add there? I'm totally with you. It's important when it comes to investing to be a short-term pessimist and a long-term optimist. Historically, when you look back at the 20s, bear markets on average take three years to go down and then come back up again. But many have taken longer. In fact, the first two bear markets of this century took almost five years to recover. That's why we have that principle of any money you need in the next three to five years, and if you're retired

five years, you should have that out of the stock market. These days, really, cash is probably your best bet. Even the bond market is down so far this year because of interest rates going up. Just keep it in cash. You're not going to get much of a return, but it's an investment. But then the long-term optimist part is appreciating, even if you are retired, most financial planners recommend that you plan on living to age 95. And some are bumping that up to 100 because people are living longer. So that means you may need, if you're retired, just to use the old 4% rule, you'll need 4% of your portfolio this year. But there's the majority of your portfolio that you won't need for five years, 10 years, 20 years, maybe even 30 years,

depending on your age. Over that long of a timeframe, you almost have to have that invested in stocks or a good part of it invested in stocks because you need your portfolio to last as long as you do, and you need the purchasing power of your portfolio to keep up. If you instead invest in cash or bonds, it's just not going to do it. I've looked at many, many, many studies of safe withdrawal rates in retirement. The recommended allocation is somewhere between 40% stocks and as high as 75% stocks, because you need that growth to make sure that your portfolio lasts for decades and is able to buy things of the future at higher future prices. Last thing we can say, then. This is a little bit of a fuzzy, and it's going to feel a little

frou-frou here, but it is important. This is the time to be working on your mindset. And what I mean by that is, if you come at this with a lot of anxiety and what am I going to do, I take it from somebody who really struggles with this. I have a long history with catastrophizing anxiety. I have my own clinical mental health issues. I know this very, very well. So I know in this kind of environment, it's very easy to get to, oh no, what do I do now? And that is a natural response. And I think the easiest way to find your way out of that is getting that five year set up. Once you get that five year set up, then you can go from fear, oh no, what do I do now to, oh, what can I do now? Which is different, right? That's a very different approach.

And what we hope is that as you ride this out a little bit and you take stock of your portfolio and try first not to sell, if you can help it, if you do need to, then be strategic and get that five years, but then see what other capital you can add. Be a net buyer on a regular basis if you can do it, but plowing into your interests if you can't be regular. Just be a net opportunistic buyer of stocks a little bit at a time and think about it just like you would any other habit you are trying to build. You just try to do something every day and get a little bit better and a little bit better and a little bit better. Ultimately, it adds up to a lot. All right, enough of me yammering. Any last words of wisdom here before we have to go? I'll return to something we talked

about toward the beginning, and that is you're investing for a reason. That reason might be retirement, but it could be something else. And I think it is really important to line up whatever the value of your portfolio is with what your goal is and to see if it's enough. So that involves either using a few really good online calculators or maybe even seeing a fee-only financial planner who you could pay by the hour of the project to say, am I on track or not? Because it might be, even though your stocks are down, you still have enough money and you're fine. Or it might be, you know what, because of this, you're going to be behind. So either you have to adjust your expectations or find more ways to get money into your 401ks and your IRAs and your college savings

accounts. Because it's important to check that there's sort of those signposts along the way. You want to know, am I on track or not? That's ultimately what everyone wants to know. Am I on track? Figure that out now and then figure out what you have to do if you're not. Because then you'll be much happier three, five, 10 years down the road knowing that you took action today to get yourself back on the right direction. You tell me if I have this right. There are generally two types of financial planners. There are financial planners who get paid by selling you products. We don't recommend those folks. We do recommend financial planners who make their money by charging you a fee, and they have no interest whatsoever in what financial products

you use, they just get paid by the hour or by the project to work entirely for you and no one else. Did I get that right? Yes, you got that right. You can find fee-only planners. There are a few networks to try, the Garrett Planning Network, there's NAPFA, National Association of Personal Financial Advisors, and the XY Planning Network. Some of them will require that they manage your money, charge you 1% to manage your assets, but many of them will charge just by the hour if that's what you want. If you want to say, listen, all I want is a professional opinion to make sure I'm on track, you should be able to find someone who can help you with that. Yeah. The final product will be, they'll take a look at all of your assets. They will literally write out a plan

and say, here it is. This is what you've shown me. Here's what I see. And that can be helpful to in these kind of situations. Okay. We are buying stocks alongside you. It's hard, but we will walk with you. If I could leave you with that, there's a lot of us who are buying. I'm buying more. There's a lot of other members of the team that I know are buying more right now. Services are buying more right now. So if I could leave you with that encouragement, the way that we're reacting to this is trying to find ways to buy more. And we hope that you too will be a net buyer of stocks. So that's it. Thanks for joining me, bro. And we'll see you soon, fools. Fool on. That's all for today, but coming up tomorrow, Jason Moser and Matt

Frankel with a deep dive on 5G and the ripple effects for banking, gaming, and more. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. I'm Chris Hill. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.