Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing - IPO Dramas and Apple's Big Surprise
Episode Date: September 13, 2019Smile Direct leaves investors frowning. WeWork reworks its corporate governance. Old Navy prepares to split from The Gap. And Popeye’s brings new meaning to BYOB. Motley Fool analysts Andy Cross, Ro...n Gross, and Jason Moser discuss those stories and weigh in on the latest from Dave & Buster’s, GameStop, Shopify, and Zscaler. Plus, media and entertainment analyst Tim Beyers talks new iPhones and Apple’s evolving business (To get 50% off our Stock Advisor service, go to http://RadarStocks.fool.com.) Thanks to Grammarly for supporting Motley Fool. For 20% off a Grammarly premium account, go to Grammarly.com/fool. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Eating well shouldn't be complicated, but somehow it turns into recipes, prep, cleanup, and half your Sunday gone.
Factor solves all that.
These are fresh, ready-to-eat meals designed by dieticians, delivered to your door, and ready in just minutes.
No prep, no cleanup, no excuses.
And it's not just about convenience.
You're getting real food, balanced nutrition, and zero artificial stuff.
Meals that help you stay on track for all of your goals, without the grind of doing it all yourself.
Grilled chicken, roasted veggies, steak plates, pasta bowls.
They taste like something you'd get in a restaurant,
but they come out of your microwave in two minutes flat.
If time, cost, or effort have been holding you back from eating better,
Factor just took those off the table.
Right now, get up to $90 off and free shipping.
Hurry, this offer won't last long.
Go to factormeals.ca and use code RESET.
That's up to $90 off and free shipping,
but only with the code RESET at factormeals.ca.
Factor, Canada's number one meal delivery service.
We've got some big IPO drama.
We're going to dig into Apple's event from earlier in the week.
And it's all brought to you by Grammarly.
Grammarly is a communication tool that helps people improve their writing to be mistake-free, clear, and effective.
Start writing confidently by going to grammarly.com slash fool and get 20% off a Grammarly premium account today.
Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money.
The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.
From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money.
It's the Motley Fool Money Radio Show.
I'm Chris Hill. Joining me in studio this week, Senior Analyst Jason Moser, Andy Cross, and Ron Gross.
Good to see you as always, gentlemen.
Hey, Chris.
We've got the latest earnings from Wall Street.
We will break down what you need to know about Apple's big event.
And as always, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar.
But we begin this week with IPO drama.
And yes, we will get to the We Company in a minute.
But first, Smile Direct Club went public this week, and shares fell 28% on the first day.
That is a rough start, Jason, for the online dentistry company.
Jason Moser. Yes, maybe. But, I mean, it's pulling a little bit of it back, right?
I mean, all in all, it was a net loss for the week, but maybe it wasn't as bad as the
first day, perhaps, portended. But I think you look at IPOs, and generally, they fall
into one of two categories. Either it was well done, and they made a lot of money from
it, or it was mispriced, and they did it.
Hot or not.
Looks like, in this case, maybe it was a mispricing. I would just encourage investors to not use
an IPO mispricing as the reason to say, oh, this is just a bad business or a bad company.
I mean, you dig through the S-1 for SmileDirect, and there's some interesting things here.
It actually looks like it could be a pretty compelling idea.
I mean, they paint a picture, certainly, of a very big market opportunity,
the U.S. market opportunity of 124 million people, $234 billion based on that $2,000 price tag.
And if you expand that out globally, obviously, it gets much larger.
I do like the value proposition versus the traditional orthodontic model.
And Matt Greer, I know, he loves it whenever I mention Teladoc and telemedicine.
This gives you the opportunity to say teledentistry, Chris, teledentistry.
So, just say it a few times.
It rolls right off the tongue.
Listen, they have 300 smile shops around the world partnering up with CVS and Walgreens.
You can either get this thing done through the mail, or you can actually go to one of those smile shops and see an orthodontist in their network.
work. What works against them, they do have a very convoluted organizational structure
that I would encourage investors to at least understand a little bit more about. But all
in all, again, I think you don't look at a bungled IPO as necessarily a sign of a bad business.
It was obviously a bad IPO and not the best start. But it's an interesting business,
I think, from a number of angles. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Great business.
Back to the IPO for a second. Am I right that they priced higher than the indicated range
and then the stock got slammed. That's an investment banking bundle, a bungle, to the 10th degree.
That's how it appears. That's a terrible pricing of an IPO.
And didn't they raise their range up a little bit, too, from what was originally reported?
Somebody did not read the demand correctly on this one, and that's a big deal.
You don't often see that. The We Company saga continues.
The parent company of WeWork is trying to salvage its IPO by updating its S-1 filing.
Andy, they're trying to make it more shareholder-friendly, but their initial plans to go public at a
valuation of $47 billion are quickly becoming a distant memory.
Yeah, pretty much off the charts now.
They're trying to, speaking of bungled IPOs, they're trying to prevent having a bungled IPO.
Now, they've made these changes to their filing, their S-1.
Now, they'll be listed on the NASDAQ, apparently, when they go.
apparently now reports are that they're going to try to go in late September. We'll set
the initial price sometime soon. They changed a lot with how Adam Neumann, the co-founder,
the CEO, really the brand of WeWork now, his relationship with the company. They committed
to appointing more independent directors. The board will choose his successor rather
than a committee. His wife was supposed to be able to choose.
His wife was involved. I've never heard of that.
Well, she actually works for the company, so she is no longer involved in that decision.
Importantly, his high vote stock, which was 20 votes to 1, is now going to be pulled back
to 10 votes. So, they are trying, but Chris, you mentioned the valuation. Initially, earlier
this year, SoftBank had invested billions at a $47 billion valuation. Now, there are
talks of this valuation being $15 billion to $20 billion. They're trying to avoid the
kind of situation that other IPOs like SmileDirect might find themselves in when they have a
really bad day, and trying to avoid a stock price that a couple of days trading after
is much lower. Yeah, I'm all in favor of improved
corporate governance. I think this was pretty egregious. I think it's still a little egregious,
but it's better. But that doesn't forgive the business model. The business model should
never have supported a $47 billion valuation. In my opinion, SoftBank, I'm sure, has real
smart folks over there. That baffles me. They've done a great sales job, I would say, with
raising private money, but that sales job doesn't seem to be continuing to the IPO roadshow,
because I think people are really seeing this business model for what it is.
Well, and SoftBank owns almost 30%, up to 30% of the company. So, SoftBank and
its entities are seriously invested into the success of WeWork.
You talk about the questionable business model. They're basically taking the concern
of the fixed cost of real estate for many workers and eliminating it. But the problem
is, in eliminating it, they're just taking that risk on themselves. Real estate, at the
end of the day, is still a very expensive proposition. To put some numbers around it,
just remember, in 2018, they brought in $1.8 billion in revenue. That's terrific, but you
know what? They spent $3.5 billion to make that $1.8 billion. So, they're losing an astounding
amount of money. There's no real flipping point there where that turns around and goes
the other way. If we see this company, if we run into a recession or some other type
of real estate crisis, this is a company that stands to get hit very hard. It seems like
a real mess. I don't understand why they're trying to rush to market. There are a lot
of people that want to cash out for this. But, man, oh, man, Smile Direct is looking
a little bit better right now.
Yeah, and importantly, they have a $6 billion line of credit lined up, but it depends on
a successful IPO raising of $3 billion. So, they have, as Jason mentioned, losses piling up.
They have capital needs. Really interesting to see what SoftBank and how much they are
pushing WeWork to go public sooner. Or are they not, and trying not to, but bankers are saying,
no, you've got to go to the market now. And there are a lot of investors out there in the market
who don't want this to go because they're worried about what it does to the overall IPO market.
Yeah. And there's nothing proprietary here. There's competitors out there. It's duplicatable.
Replicable? That, too. Landlords or owners of real estate
can replicate this. Real, true competitors using the same business model are out there.
Again, it speaks to the valuation, it speaks to margins, it speaks to cash flow eventually.
I just don't see it. I realize that we're living in a
a different time than we did 20 years ago, particularly in terms of media and information.
But, Ron, have you ever seen anything like this before? The closest thing I can come
is 20 years ago when AltaVista was looking to go public, but that was really just a market
condition thing that they canceled their IPO. I've never seen something like this where
they are stumbling to the finish line. Yeah, you just nailed it. I was going
to say, I've seen IPOs be pulled, but it's usually the result of market conditions, not
typically the result of something specific to a company. This is a debacle.
Dave & Buster's down a little bit this week. Second quarter profits and revenue
came in higher than expected, but Dave & Buster's cut guidance. The stock took a hit initially,
Ron, but it looks like it's mostly recovered. Yeah, not a terrible report, but investors
are rightly focused on negative comps, lowered guidance. But you did have revenue up 8%,
and that's largely because of store count increasing by 11%. That obviously helps boost
overall revenue. You had a 9% increase in amusement, a 6% increase in food and beverage.
That all sounds good. But again, it's only because there were these new stores that were
open during the period. Comp sales, comparable store sales, actually fell 1.8%. That's not good.
That's what investors are focused on, and they should be. Interestingly, the company has a lot
of initiatives in place to kind of improve results. They continue to repurchase shares.
They pay a dividend. They're remodeling stores. They have a plan to continue to open new stores.
But these new initiatives are going to take time. Therefore, they had to lower their nearer-term
guidance. Stock takes a hit as it should. Shares are only trading 13.5 times. So,
if you think the longer-term initiatives are going to bear some fruit, it's actually
not an expensive stock right here.
Speaking of store count, things continue to look rough for GameStop. Same-store sales
fell 12% in the second quarter. The video game retailer cut guidance. Andy, they're
saying they're going to close a couple hundred locations, but there are still an awful lot
of GameStops out there. 5,700. They have 5,700 stores of GameStop,
and they're just moving in the wrong direction. This stock peaked around $57 in 2013, now
down to $4. I mean, that's a 93% loss. It just continues to kind of trying to find its
way in a market where consumers are just not going into the stores to buy and to interact
with games like we used to. We've shifted away, and GameStop, the business, is trying
to shift with it, and they're putting forth some initiatives, some digital initiatives,
other initiatives, and they're closing some stores. But they have a lot of activist investors,
some hedge funds getting involved. There was a proxy fight earlier this year. So, a lot
of Vultr investors pushing for them to make much more draconian steps, and they still
haven't quite done it, and the stock has really just suffered for it over the past couple of years.
It's interesting, they recently bought $12 million of their own shares in a modified
Dutch tender at $520 million. So, where are we now? The $4 million is somewhere. It appears
to not be a good use of capital, at least in the near term. I do like that they're paying
down their debt. They still have about $400 million of debt. It's relatively equal to
the amount of cash they have. So, I don't see any balance sheet trouble right here, right now.
Stocks trading at 3.5X earnings. Yeah, but those earnings are just
not going to improve. Chris, you mentioned they were guiding for comps to drop in the
5% to 10% range. Now, they're going to be in the low teens. The only part of their business
that was up, really, was the collectibles business. So, if you're talking about, if
that's your headline, I think that's a little sign of trouble.
How much does an army of warehouse robots cost?
The answer is next, so stay right here.
You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.
Chris Hill here in studio with Jason Moser, Andy Cross, and Ron Gross.
This week, Shopify made a cash and stock deal to buy Six Rivers Systems,
a company described in the press release as, quote,
a leading provider of collaborative warehouse fulfillment solutions.
We're talking robots, right?
We're talking about the rise of the machines.
$450 million in cash and stock for a lot of robots.
That's right. At its very core, this acquisition is about warehouse automation.
And it's another sign, I think, of the grand aspirations of founder and CEO Toby Lutke.
I think one of the great things about commerce, from the investor's perspective,
There are a lot of opportunities because it offers a lot of ways to innovate and bring more to the table for your customers.
And so, this is really kind of just right out of the page of the Jeff Bezos playbook, honestly.
And I mean, to be clear here, this company, there are folks who work there that came over from Amazon Robotics,
or what was formerly known as Kiva Systems.
But yeah, I mean, their robot's name is Chuck. It's very easy to implement into the workflow.
I don't know the name. Sure you do. Let's take this to a personal level, Chris.
They're 12- to 18-month payback on the investment, which I think is attractive. They have a very
robust customer base. Listen, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that Shopify is going to be the
next Amazon. But Toby Luecke, he has that same passion and customer-centric nature. The only
way you keep and grow your customer base is by offering great products and services and continuing
to innovate and bring more to the table. So, like you said, $450 million deal, mix of cash
and stock. Unfortunately, as the story with Shopify has always been, it is not something
that is going to impact the top line here in a positive way anytime soon. In fact, it's
going to add to their expense line. So, the business is going to continue to be unprofitable
for some time to come. To put that into context, today, Shopify is trading around 40X sales
versus Amazon's four. So, take that into consideration when you're thinking about adding
shares of Shopify. But with that said, we own it in the augmented reality portfolio.
Love the business. The market's really pulling forward a lot of success.
Rough week for Zscaler. The cybersecurity company closed out the fiscal year with its
fourth quarter report, and shares are down 25% this week. Zscaler was your radar stock
last week, Andy. I say that just to remind folks not to blame you.
Thank you.
You took a shot.
Was the report bad, or are expectations that high?
It's the expectations, Chris. I mean, this is yet another lesson that we talk about for
these high beta, high growth, high multiple stocks. And when they start to struggle, or
because they actually had a really nice quarter, but the guidance was a little bit weaker on
both the revenues and the profitability. And I think investors just saw that. Also, something
Jay Chaudhry, the CEO and co-founder and largest shareholder, talked about, some of their larger
customers starting to slow a little of their purchases. So, I think investors were looking
at that. But the quarter that they reported, revenues were up 50%, billings were up more
than the 30%. Profits beat both their own expectations as well as investors. But the
guidance for revenue up about 32% versus more than 50% growth last year, and then the profit
picture weakening a little bit for the investments they're making. Investors saw that and just
wonder if the growth is starting to slow a little bit, competition ramping up for them
in the security space, the cloud security space, and just wondering if the stock at
more than 20 times sales is worth that price, and obviously they thought not. Long term,
I still like this business, and it's a cheaper stock obviously now, and long term, that market
is extremely attractive at north of $20 billion in total potential sales down the road.
So, I think the stock at $6 billion in market cap, with lots of cash in the books and their
free cash flow positive, looks like a better buy today than it was last week.
Next year, Old Navy will be spun out of the gap as its own public company. This week,
Old Navy announced plans to open 800 stores. And Ron, for context, right now Old Navy's
got about 1,100 stores. So, that's a seriously big ramp-up they're talking about.
Almost double. We'll open about 75 stores per year, smaller markets, off-mall locations.
Trying to get to $10 billion of revenue over time. They're standing at about $8 billion
right now. The other, after the spin, Gap Athleta, Banana Republic, will remain with
The new Gap, they will be focusing on Denim, for those who are interested in being or remaining
Gap shareholders.
Yeah, I don't know about that.
But I think the Old Navy company is much better positioned going forward.
Certainly, as we say, big expansion plans.
I will remind folks, though, that they've struggled a little bit as of late.
We've seen some cracks in comp sales for Old Navy.
Actually, they were negative in most recent periods.
So, not a completely rosy picture, but I do think the spinoff makes sense.
Yeah, but you look over the past decade, and frequently when The Gap was issuing
its quarterly report, the story was, Old Navy, much better than literally every other brand
The Gap has. For sure. And hence the spinoff
to create the appropriate value. Restaurant Brand International is the
parent company of Burger King, Tim Hortons, and Popeyes. You may recall Popeyes made headlines
in August with a chicken sandwich that was so popular it sold out as the company tries
to get its supply chain in order. Popeyes rolled out a new marketing campaign encouraging
customers to BYOB, bring your own buns. That's right, bring your own buns, Jason. Popeyes
will sell you the chicken tenders so you can assemble your own sandwich. And surprisingly
to Popeyes, but not surprisingly to everyone else, this backfired and customers not happy at all.
Understandable, but what about those who are perhaps a little bit hasty and they
just immediately take off right after BYOB and they show up at the store with a 12-pack
of beer? Because that's what we grew up with at the BYOB. It sounds like no matter what
you show up there with, I don't know that bringing in external food is acceptable anywhere
at any time in the restaurant business. It just seems like a lawsuit waiting to happen.
I've got an idea. Order more buns.
Isn't there a local grocery store with some Pepperidge Farm or something?
Don't ask me to bring a bun and then give me chicken fingers and tell me you're
selling me a sandwich. I think I get what they were trying to do.
Clearly, they are trying to get their supply chain in order. But Andy, they're basically
just trolling their customers, which is never a good idea.
And it's not like Restaurant Brands is a small company. This is a $20 billion company
headquartered in Toronto. They have, as you mentioned, Chris, a lot of brands below, so
they have a lot of people understanding and thinking about their customers and marketing.
Somehow, to do this, I'm just wondering, what was the strategy behind that?
I just feel like they were trying to parlay the success of this campaign, and they
just flew a little bit too close to the sun.
Alright, guys, we'll see you later in the show. What was the headline of Apple's
big event this week. Up next, we will dig into that and more with our man, Tim Beyers.
So, stay right here. This is Motley Fool Money.
Alright, before we talk Apple, I want to say thanks to Grammarly for supporting this week's
Motley Fool Money. Grammarly is a communication tool that helps people improve their writing
to be mistake-free, clear, and effective. They encourage everyone, even the best students,
even the top professionals, to use Grammarly to do their best work and accomplish even more of
their goals. They help people show their best self through writing, and it's available across
platforms including online browser extension, desktop editor, and mobile keyboard checker.
You can find it on multiple browsers like Chrome, Firefox, Safari. You can find it on platforms like
iOS, Android, Windows, Mac. Their free product, which is great, reviews critical spelling and
grammar. But Grammarly Premium looks out for spelling, grammar, plus structure, style within
context, vocabulary suggestions, conciseness, readability for different occasions. So maybe
you're working on a business proposal, maybe you're writing an essay for school, whatever.
Grammarly Premium is going to help you out. And it's so easy to use that I've been using it.
I'll just say that the advanced punctuation helps me a great deal. So whether you're looking to
polish up your resume, or just look smarter in your emails at work, do yourself a favor,
check out Grammarly by going to grammarly.com slash fool and get 20% off your Grammarly premium
account today. That's grammarly.com slash fool, 20% off your Grammarly premium account.
All right, let's talk Apple. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Chris Hill. Earlier this week,
Apple CEO Tim Cook took the stage at an event in Cupertino, California, to unveil the iPhone 11.
Here to help us sift through the headlines of Apple's event is Tim Beyers, media and entertainment
analyst for The Motley Fool. He joins me now from Colorado. Tim, thanks for being here.
Tim Beyers, Thanks, Chris.
What is your headline for the Apple event?
It's on like Donkey Kong, because we've got games, like, for real. So, this is
Very much a services announcement wrapped around an iPhone upgrade and some new watches.
Let me put a pin in the games for a second, because I do want to talk about the iPhone first.
Because part of what's getting people's attention here is the pricing.
Pricing both for the video service, which we'll talk about in a minute, but also for the iPhone 11, which starts at $700.
bucks. On the surface, this seems like a pretty compelling offer compared to in years past,
certainly the past couple of years, where Apple has unveiled the new phone, whatever it is at
the time, and it's usually got a price tag of around $1,000. Did you see enough with the iPhone
11 to make you think, oh, this is a compelling argument for someone who's looking to upgrade?
It's a compelling argument if you are looking to upgrade but not go all the way up the stack.
Because this is really epic rebranding.
And Business Insider gets some credit for this.
They did a review.
And what they found is that the iPhone XR, last year's big phone, is roughly the same as the low end of the iPhone 11.
So now you're not getting a rebranded low end of the phone.
It's just all iPhone 11.
It depends on how high you go up the stack.
the way up to the iPhone 11 Pro. And so that $700 price point looks very attractive, but really what
you're getting is an incrementally upgraded iPhone XR. I think that's interesting. I think it's smart
marketing. I don't think that it is a compelling value proposition necessarily. Now, what's very
interesting to me is the iPhone Pro is a recognition that there are some photographers now who are
making a living using their phone as their primary camera, or at least the one that they are using to
get out and get shots on the scene. And it does a really excellent job. And so I do think there
is a professional market for an iPhone camera. And I think Apple is pricing in that area. They're
certainly delivering in terms of features with the multi-lens camera. But I think that is the
outlier announcement here. Really, the big announcement is, can the iPhone 11 at the base
level drive enough demand to stop the bleeding? Because this is a business, the iPhone business,
that's been growing a lot more slowly in recent years. So we want to really see this turn around.
I'd be looking to see how many of those $700 iPhones we're lining up for. My expectation is
Not really that many, but I do expect there to be outsized demand, at least in that niche
that needs it, for the iPhone 11 Pro.
So we saw this a few years ago in the enterprise space, where computers, desktop, and laptop
were improving over time.
And so you had large companies that were essentially not hitting the refresh button, and they were
extending the lifetime of the equipment that they had in their offices. We're seeing this now a
little bit with smartphones, where the average consumer keeps their smartphone for about three
years. I've had mine even longer than that. If you're an Apple shareholder or you're thinking
about buying shares of Apple, do you need to lower your expectations for what iPhone is going to do
to the bottom line? I do think you have to. And I'm right there with you, Chris. I mean, I've had
my tiny little iPhone SE for coming up on three years now, and I'm not going to upgrade. So I do
think we're in this phase now where the smartphone refresh cycle is extending. And that's part of the
natural evolution of technology. The better the technology gets, the better the underlying gear
gets, the more sturdy it gets. It has a longer life. And so there's less temptation to upgrade.
And on top of that, you have cloud services, services that you can get anywhere, apps that you can get anywhere.
So it's much easier to upgrade the phone without upgrading the hardware.
And this is Apple sort of killing itself in a way because the services business is growing fast.
It is the second biggest part of Apple in terms of overall revenue.
And so by making its services business so attractive, it does in a weird way make the business of upgrading your iPhone, it's just a little easier to put it off now. So yes, I do think we're seeing that. Now, if you're going to become an Apple shareholder, to answer the second half of your question, what you really should be focused on is what Apple can do with its balance sheet and in this services business.
Because certainly one of the things that people are going to be looking at is the wearables business. And I know we're going to get to that. That is a potential catalyst. But the future of this company is going after Netflix, going after Amazon, going after Nintendo, going after all content and trying to own all of it through every device that they sell.
So it becomes like content at the center and we happen to sell devices around it.
That's an interesting strategy.
If you believe that Apple can own that and disrupt Netflix and Amazon and others, then it's a compelling buy here.
So Apple TV Plus, their video streaming business, they came out with a price tag $4.99 a month.
Are you surprised they went that low?
I am very surprised they went that low.
I mean, that's a gut punch, man.
I think Netflix and Disney took a hit after that announcement, the stocks of both those companies, because that's a gut punch.
I mean, basically, Apple is saying, we're going to run our content business at a loss in the short term because we are intent on grabbing market share.
Because this is not new.
Apple has been in the content business for a little while, and their content hasn't really caught hold.
So now, by lowering prices so dramatically, Apple is saying, look, give us a try. You're going to like what you see because the content is not selling itself right now. So they're looking for the price to sell the content until the content can sell itself.
So I'm very surprised. It's a bold move, and it may pay off, but not in the immediate term. This is much more of a long-term play where Apple is using its balance sheet, that $100 billion in cash that they have available, to make a power play in both the gaming business and the TV business.
Well, and they also got a tiny bit of a leg up on Disney with the timing of when Apple TV Plus comes out, because it's coming out November 1st, nearly two weeks ahead of Disney Plus.
Right, right. And that that is important, too. So there is definitely going to be a rush to figure out, you know, especially going into the holiday season. Do I want the Apple TV? Am I going to buy, you know, a new Amazon device? Am I going to order Disney Plus? This is going to be a really interesting holiday season. And in the middle of all this, right, is Netflix.
And so now we get to see just how sturdy the Netflix model is, because up to this point, Netflix has had two principal advantages.
The first is that they had scale. They have a lot of scale in terms of a lot of shows, a lot of inventory.
The second advantage they had is they're beloved by artists and creators because they give you a budget up front and you create and you dictate terms.
And artists have been willing to give up things like royalties and residuals in order to work with Netflix. Will that continue to be the case when Apple is throwing money at the business, if Disney is throwing money at this business? We'll see. I think it's going to be a very interesting time for all three of these companies, but the one that's most at risk is Netflix.
Let's talk about wearables for a second because one of the things I was thinking as I was looking at coverage of this event and also some of the highlights is that it really seems like Apple is positioning the watch as a health device.
They had this video of people who were warned of heart attacks by the watch.
And I'm not someone who wears a watch, but they made a pretty compelling, almost emotional case for buying this device.
And that is Apple at its best, because Apple at its best makes emotional appeals and connects emotions to technology so that you feel invested.
And so it's interesting. I don't know if it's it's certainly a good short term strategy to connect the dots and say, hey, look, this is this is what you need in the environment we're in now. People are working longer hours. We're working out. We're trying to measure our fitness, measure, you know, our lifespans and everything else.
the watch is sort of the hub for health tracking.
And it's an interesting play,
but I think it's also bigger than that.
Like if that is the lone pitch
that Apple makes to the Apple Watch,
I think that dies in six months
because we've heard this before.
And before our health tracking device
has been our smartphone.
So we're really going to take the leap
from where we are using our smartphone
to kind of track our health with apps like Strava
or even just the built-in app inside the iPhone or any other smartphone you pick and moving it
to the watch, I don't necessarily think, despite the emotional appeals, that that translates over
the long term. But in the short term, yeah, it's an interesting pitch. Tim, this event reminded me,
without Apple ever talking about it on stage, and there's no reason that they would,
of just how much of an asset their cash balance is. Because if you think back to the initial
launch of the watch, it was sort of a ho-hum response from Wall Street. The talk of video
programming for a long time has been just that talk, or to the extent that they've executed
against that, it hasn't been that inspiring. And this has just been a nice reminder that
one of the things that cash enables you to do is it buys you time. We have now new iterations of
the watch. And now they're in a position where they can throw enough money at video programming.
As you said, we're going to operate this at a loss. We're going to give stars in the industry
the bandwidth to create great programming. And we can do that because we got the cash.
That is absolutely right. And let me give you a stat here, Chris. So
So, Apple has about $100 billion on its balance sheet in cash, right around $95 billion.
They also have a little under $110 billion in debt.
What you don't see, unless you look at the balance sheet, is there's another $100 billion
in long-term investments.
So Apple has a lot more cash that they could either repatriate from other countries or
from other businesses and put to work.
have a huge runway. And Apple has gone from being a company that's keeping cash as a cushion to now
being a company that's using cash as a weapon. That's different. So this is a very different
look for Apple. And it could bring in a new era for this company and drive returns for a while.
But it does remain to be seen. It's just a fundamentally different pitch. Apple has always pitched itself as we build something that is high quality, that has emotional resonance, that you're going to want to associate with. They've never been able to get over that hump in entertainment.
Now the sales pitch is different saying, look, this is cheap. If you give it a try, I know we can convince you that the stuff we've got is high quality and has emotional resonance. But they haven't been able to make their core sales pitch in this entertainment business. So they're trying something different and they're using cash to do it.
So it's a very interesting time to be an Apple shareholder if you have shares now. And if you don't, it's an interesting time to look at the business because they're going to be very aggressive. That's one of the main takeaways I got from this event, Chris, is that this is a sharper elbowed Apple that is taking fewer prisoners than it used to.
Last thing, and then I'll let you get back to work. Shares of Apple are up around 40%
year to date. What is something you're going to be watching in Apple's business going forward?
I'm going to be watching the services line item because it's growing. It's growing quickly. It's
not growing as fast as wearables, but I want to see what the uptake is. And I want to see not only
the growth on the top line, but what does the operating margin look like? Because if I'm right,
and this is running at a loss, we're going to start to see some thinning margins inside that
services business. That's okay, as long as the top line is growing very quickly. So I'm looking
for maybe some acceleration in terms of revenue from the services business, while the operating
income where a lot of the expenses, some of the fallout from running this at a loss is going to
show up. If those two things start to normalize and get bigger, boy, I'll be very, very interested
to see that. And if it moves faster than I expect, then two things I expect will happen. First,
the stock will respond accordingly, and it might be a dark day for Netflix.
Tim Beyers covers media and entertainment for The Motley Fool. Tim, always good talking to you.
Same here, Chris. Thanks a lot.
Coming up, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar.
You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
If you've got the money, I got the time.
We'll go honky-tonking and we'll have a time.
We'll make all the night spots, do the town a fine.
If you've got the money, honey, I got the time.
If you've got the money, honey, I got the time.
As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about,
and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks
based solely on what you hear. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Chris Hill here in studio
once again with Jason Moser, Andy Cross, and Ron Gross. We will get to the stocks on our
radar in just a minute, but if you're looking for even more stock ideas, you can check out
our flagship service, Stock Advisor. Every month, you'll get stock recommendations from
Tom and David Gardner, you'll get their Best Buys now and a lot more, and you can get a
50% discount off the price. That's what we negotiated for the dozens of listeners, Ron.
Just go to RadarStocks.Fool.com. That's RadarStocks.Fool.com and get 50% off Stock Advisor.
All right, let's get to the stocks on our radar. Our man behind the glass, Steve Broido,
is going to hit you with a question. Ron, you're up first. What are you looking at?
I got CRISPR Therapeutics, CRSP. It's part of my gene therapy basket, along with six
other companies, including Editas and Intelia. They're a Switzerland-based gene editing company
focused on the CRISPR-Cas9 editing technology. Now, shares are up 70% this year, but don't
let that scare you. This is still an early-stage story. It's going to take a long time to play out.
There's going to be plenty of ups and downs over the years. They're partnering with Vertex
Pharmaceuticals to treat blood disorders through this gene editing technology. Balance sheet's
solid. $428 million in cash, another $175 million coming due to an expanded partnership
with Vertex. Strong balance sheets are essential if you're going to play this early-stage biotech game.
Steve, question about CRISPR Therapeutics?
When will I first see some results of their work?
I think within the next 18 months, you'll see a lot of trials progressing to
the stage of where we'll either be really excited or really disappointed, but there's
a lot of really interesting stuff happening.
We've got a little bit of time, Ron. You want to ask Steve a question?
Yeah, Steve, I would love to.
According to your Facebook page, you're a fan of musician Bob Mould.
Please explain that.
Bob Mould, he's huge. Husker Du.
He's from Minneapolis. He's a great musician.
I've got to get out more.
Jason Moser, what are you looking at?
Well, giddy up, fellas, because I'm taking a look at Church Hill Downs
for a big project we have coming up here at the end of the year, Chris.
We'll probably get into more of that later.
But Church Hill Downs, ticker CHDN, and you may not know this,
but the Kentucky Derby is the longest continuously held annual sporting event
in the United States today. Pretty impressive.
But, Churchill Downs is far more than just the Kentucky Derby company.
It operates casinos, other tracks, online gambling sites, including Twin Spires,
which is the largest legal online horse racing platform in the U.S.,
of the three major revenue buckets in racing and online wagering and casino.
It's casino that actually is the biggest moneymaker for the company.
But as we see this regulatory landscape in the U.S. continue to evolve in regard to gambling,
I think the Churchill Downs could be in a really good position to benefit, given their experience in the space.
Steve, question about Churchill Downs.
When do you think brick-and-mortar casinos will go away?
I don't know that they'll go away, but I do think that's a really good point, Steve,
because as we've seen the proliferation of mobile technology,
a lot of companies out there are really capitalizing on mobile sports betting,
and Churchill Downs is no exception.
You want to ask Steve a question?
Yeah, you know, Steve, I'm just kicking around another project to do around the house.
I was wondering, what was the last home renovation-style project that you undertook at your casa?
Well, I tried to paint a door last week.
And that was when I messed it up the first time.
I tried again last week, and I think I'm going to be hiring someone.
Andy Cross, what are you looking at?
Scholastic Corporation, symbol SCHL, largest publisher of children's books and magazines.
Steve-O, maybe your kids read Scholastic News like my daughters do at school, reports earnings
next week. Stock's around $40, market cap of $1.4 billion, $300 million of cash on the
books, no debt, and yields 1.5%. Stock has really not gone much anywhere. We actually
shorted it in another Motley Fool service before. What's really interesting to me is
how they're moving into the digital space, like streaming, taking some of their brands
into Amazon Prime and PBS Kids, like Clifford the dog.
Steve?
Five years from now, will they be having anything in print format?
Yes, they still will.
Three stocks, Steve.
You got one you want to add to your watch list?
I think I'm going to go with CRISPR.
Nice.
Finally.
Ryan Gross, Andy Cross, Jason Moser.
Guys, thanks for being here.
Thanks, Chris.
That's going to do it for this week's edition of Motley Fool Money.
Our engineer is Steve Broido.
Our producer is Matt Greer.
I'm Chris Hill.
Thanks for listening.
We'll see you next time.
