Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing - Media Merger Mania Strikes Again
Episode Date: September 12, 2025We discuss the potential for another major media merger as Paramount Skydance eyes Warner Bros Discovery, and there’s a new richest person in the world as Oracle tries to take on big tech hyperscale...rs. Travis Hoium, Lou Whiteman, and Rick Munarriz discuss: - Paramount’s interest in Warner Bros Discovery - Oracle’s huge deal with OpenAI - Adobe’s AI story - Rank media, autonomous vehicle, and restaurant stocks Companies discussed: Netflix (NFLX), Disney (DIS), Warner Bros Discovery (WBD), Comcast (CMCSA), Fox (FOX), Tesla (TSLA), Rivian (RIVN), Uber (UBER), Mobileye (MBLY), WeRide (WRD), Chipotle (CMG), Darden (DRI), Cava (CAVA), Portillo’s (PTLO), Wingstop (WING) Host: Travis Hoium Guests: Lou Whiteman, Rick Munarriz Engineer: Dan Boyd Disclosure: Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, “TMF”) do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement. We’re committed to transparency: All personal opinions in advertisements from Fools are their own. The product advertised in this episode was loaned to TMF and was returned after a test period or the product advertised in this episode was purchased by TMF. Advertiser has paid for the sponsorship of this episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Is the richest person in the world taking over media?
Motley Fool Money starts now.
Everybody needs money.
That's why they call it money.
The best things in life are free, but you can give them to the birds and bees.
From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money.
Welcome to Motley Fool Money. I am Travis Hoyum, joined today by Lou Whiteman and Rick Mignares.
And we are going to be talking about the big media deal of the day.
Paramount is officially merged with Skydance, but the next deal that may end up happening is another merger with Warner Brothers Discovery.
these are kind of the two media companies that have kind of been back and forth. What is the
future going to look like? Larry Ellison is the money behind this deal. We're going to get to
Larry Ellison's new status as the richest person in the world a little bit later. But his son,
David, is really the dealmaker here. So, Rick, what is going on with the potential merger of
this new Paramount Skydance business and potentially the pre-split version of Warner
Brothers Discovery? Yeah, so obviously, Warner Brothers Discovery is on the market. And this
is nothing new. Anyone that's followed Warner Brothers Discovery knows it's always waiting
on the front porch for someone to show up on bended knee. But before this paramount at Warner
Brothers Discovery, if that even happens, this is still up in the air, it sounds a lot to me like
Warner Brothers and Discovery, and before that, Warner Brothers and AT&T, Warner Brothers and AOL.
And it sort of feels like a Sadie Hawkins dance at an all-boys school where not a lot of things
are happening here because no one wants to dance and no one's asking any inviting anyone to begin
with so i think warner brothers discovery would be an interesting piece for paramount to have
especially because paramount's also a company that the reason it was made available why it was
acquired was because it's not one of the major players right now in this new normal it's struggling
uh for on the streaming end to become a profitable thriving enterprise which right now is a very
limited number of companies doing that lou the question that i have here is what would this
future even look like? I mean, Paramount does have some interesting assets. They do have CBS,
so you have things like football. You're bringing in some of the Skydance assets as well, so you
have a little bit more content. But you don't have the same critical mass as you have at a Netflix
or at a Disney, which has Disney+, Hulu, and now ESPN. So they're all trying to break into
streaming. We know that cable is in decline. That's a structural decline. I don't think that's
changing. That's one of the reasons that Warner Brothers Discovery is having so many financial
issues. So they all want to break into streaming. But to do that, you got to have the content to
pull people in. Is Paramount and Skydance enough or do they need to make another deal like this
and just gobble up more content, more assets to actually make a play at kind of these big
two players in streaming? Yeah, this is so weird because I think it's a no-brainer to do it. And
I don't know if it moves the needle, right? If I'm Warner Brothers Discovery, I take this deal
a heartbeat. It feels like a get-out-of-jail-free card because they are in a tough position.
For Skydance, whether it's a good deal or not, we'll talk about it later,
but they have all the money in the world, so they can afford it and we do need to consolidate.
But I like some of the assets. I'm a soccer geek. I love Paramount for that. I know I'm
in the minority. I don't know if this is a compelling thing. I think, guys, this points
that we are in this weird, we don't have a strong foundation here. This industry is evolving in real
time. I don't know where we're going, but even with this deal, with everything we've seen,
it doesn't feel like we're close to solidifying, to stabilizing. There's still a lot more work
that needs to be done. Let's get to what that potential end game would look like. I think
Netflix is there. Netflix isn't going to go anywhere. Disney, I don't know that they would
be able to buy anyone else. The other thing to think about with these companies is the broadcast
networks. You're not going to probably be able to combine ABC with NBC, for example, or Fox with
CBS. So where do these companies need to get to? Because the other two that we have not talked
about is Comcast-owned NBC and Peacock, which is their streaming service, and also Fox. Fox just
launched Fox one. I can't believe we're having a new streaming service being launched in 2025,
but they did just launch Fox one that is going to be available in a bundle with ESPN and the
other Disney services, uh, I believe starting in October, but those four companies seem like
they're, they're kind of hanging out below the Netflix's and the Disney's of the world who do
have over a hundred million subscribers who do have profitable streaming businesses. So Rick,
it seems like this dance, somebody's got to, somebody's got to start dancing or they're all
going to be in really, really big trouble. Yeah. So Lou played out a get out of jail free card.
I'm going to take a different monopoly card for some of these companies. I'm going to go with the
go back three spaces card because it does seem like they're going backwards. So while they are
coming together in the cold survive, and that's, it seems right because, Hey, you know, let's see
if we can make it go together. Uh, they're not feasting on the larger players right now. This
is more like the rugby team from Uruguay that got stranded in the Andes. Uh, this is not a good
place to be for these companies. And it's more desperation, a more fragmented market that needs
to get together and do this. But I don't think they're going to make a dent in the big players.
And eventually, the companies that got acquired, like Skydance and Paramount and Warner Brothers,
they'll find another company to absorb. But in the end, it's not really moving the needle,
at least not to viewers and definitely not to people watching the bottom line.
Travis, I'm going to get bold here. And Rick mentioned it earlier, AT&T, Warner Brothers,
to say, well, this has been a sector that has been ripe for didn't see that coming type mergers
and acquisitions. I think, I said before, I think we are no closer to knowing what the end game
looks like here than we were a couple of years ago. I mean, it strikes me that just a couple
of years ago, the idea of HBO and Showtime merging would have been just a non-starter for antitrust.
and now these are two afterthought companies. So this is a really rapidly evolving business.
I think Netflix is out there ready to do something that would have sounded crazy a couple of years
ago, maybe just kind of adding live sports, maybe adding to them. Maybe a network does
move the needle and maybe like having Fox in-house, maybe that would help solidify them.
I think we're going to have- Well, Fox is an option, but what about NBC?
I think that's an option too, yeah, because that core Comcast business seems to be
less of a cash cow than it was just a few years ago. I think we are pretty early on here. I think
we do know, I feel pretty safe saying Netflix and Disney are survivors, and they are first
movers, consolidators. I don't think we really know. I think that they all might have something
a little out of left field and it might be genius long-term, but I just think this is such an
important consumer-facing business, but it is so unsettled right now. And I feel like a lot of the
CEOs, they are no closer to having the definitive answers than we are talking about it.
The other name that we haven't talked about here that is actually bigger than Netflix
is YouTube. And that sort of seems to be the challenge when you come to
all of these mergers and acquisitions. Great. You can combine CBS with Skydance's assets.
But when you talk about who's going to win the next sports rights deal, the NFL can opt out of
their deal. I believe it's in 2029. That's going to be a huge deal. Who's going to have the cash
to bid on that deal? Are we going to be at the point where, Rick, where in five, 10 years,
we can only handle three, maybe four subscriptions. And either of these companies at the bottom that
we've talked about, the Paramount, the Peacocks, some of these others, the Fox, the smaller
companies, they have to either sell out somehow or survive. And then the thing we haven't talked
about, and this is what I'm thinking about as Lou is offering up Fox, you have a lot of egos
involved. That's the Murdoch legacy. Would they just sell to a company like Netflix and just
wash their hands of it? All of this is extremely complicated, not only on a financial perspective,
but also on a personal perspective, because the Allisons are now behind this potential merger.
So it's very complicated. Yeah, but the Redstones had an ego too. And sure enough,
so eventually there comes a breaking point that, hey, you know what, let's move on. Let's sell the
team but you mentioned football and to me i think that that's the fact that you have to if you want
the nfl sunday ticket now it's you have to go through google then if you want the games it
depends on the night do i need amazon prime for this do i need do i need uh which which network
is it espn uh is is it is it apple all these things are happening right now it's very complicated for
the consumer and i think the leagues are losing out because of that they're getting good money
but fan confusion is not the way to win uh it's not like what you knew okay guess what the pop
most popular sport with kids right now i see this in my house is bluey a sport but not bluey but the
the savannah bananas are incredibly popular because it's absolutely everywhere and you can get it
on netflix you can get it yeah we've got it on youtube tv it is absolutely everywhere and it's
fun that's a that's a cohort of people that a lot of these leagues are missing out on because of
these huge money deals that actually make your audience smaller yeah and it starts like that
And then it becomes like the WWE, where it's not just a cult thing, it becomes a larger thing.
And then they can't afford the Savannah Bananas anymore.
But yeah, it is that kind of market we live in now.
So, here's the deal.
Chaos creates opportunities.
And on the content side is part of it, but there's a bigger picture here too, guys,
that this is broken and we need to solve it.
Right now, I hate, I mean, going from my cable box flipping channels to the Roku experience,
where I have to back out of one app, load another app just to check the other game or whatever,
this will not stand. Whether it's Roku, whether or not it's YouTube, we need an aggregator. My
credit card can handle just the multiple dings each month, so on the billing side, it is what it
is. But there's a real opportunity for someone to modernize the consumer experience with all of this
chaos, with this new world. Whoever gets that right, I think as an investor, that could be a
a big win or two. And as a consumer, please hurry. All right. I want to end on predictions of where
this ends up and where you think the best opportunity is for investors. Rick, where are
we going and where are you putting your money as a result? Yeah. So I think Netflix has survived.
It's not even breaking a sweat through any of this. So I think it will continue to be the leader.
I think the Netflix stock is a little overvalued at this point. So it's not something that I'm,
it's a screaming value here, but it's never been that way. But it's the one company that
I can say can safely be around. Even Disney, as powerful as it may be, you don't know if it'll
still be this streaming juggernaut five, 10, 15 years ago. They could change. Netflix has one
thing and one thing to do only, and it's going to keep doing that. So I think Netflix is the best
play on the future of streaming, which will continue to be a good thing. But I think they're
the ones that just have the clear runway to keep going. My only clarity about where things end up
is that I don't think we have a clue. Again, I think we are well into the evolution, but we
are not settled yet, so I don't want to sit there. I would probably say Netflix, too, Rick, just so
we're different. I'm going to say Alphabet, just for fun, because I do think with their money and
their access to the consumer, they have a role to play, and you get all that diversified business,
so I'm really curious what they do from here. I was going to bring up that one. I think that
one is it's people don't even know that alphabet owns youtube but there it is the biggest streamer
in the world still underappreciated next up we are going to talk about the potential owner of
some of these media assets larry ellison and how much money he made this week you're listening to
motley fool money welcome back to motley fool money oracle was the hottest stock this week
nearing a trillion dollar valuation crazy thing is the company added 356 billion dollars in
remaining performance obligations for the past year nearly all of that is from open ai we found
that out after earnings funny they didn't disclose that during earnings by the way this is mostly
from one company that doesn't actually have 300 billion dollars to pay us uh but lu this is a huge
story because this has now vaulted Oracle into the kind of the big tech space. It has also made
Larry Ellison the tie to the Paramount deal, at least earlier this week, was the richest person
in the world. So what is your takeaway overall from this move from Oracle and OpenAI? Yeah. So
the biggest thing to note is, like you said, RPO, remaining performance obligations, does not equal
guaranteed revenue, period. But it does mean that at least the potential is there. You're right.
OpenAI doesn't have the money today, but they don't have to have the money today. OpenAI also
has a long track record of being able to raise cash. As of today, I think they can probably
raise that money. So I do think that, yes, this can all work out and there's understandable
enthusiasm. I think, though, it needs to be tempered with the nuance that, yes, this is
assuming the status quo. This is assuming that, I guess, the music doesn't stop, right? Or it
doesn't become significantly harder for OpenAI or someone else to raise the money they need to pay
this. And there is sort of, you know, grandmas don't count the chickens before they hatch here
as far as the stock reaction. I think investors are rightly very excited about this. And I also,
I think cautious optimism is best here because I also, again, you cannot say, well, then this is
money they have. This is the potential that they might grow substantially from here. And that's an
important difference if you're buying in. The other thing that I'll add before I throw it to Rick is
that, at least reportedly, Microsoft and OpenAI have reached a non-binding agreement to basically
allow OpenAI to turn into a for-profit company that could lead to an IPO and the capital raises
that will likely be needed. But Rick, is this the kind of thing that's a needle mover for
Oracle's long-term business? Because they have not been this cloud juggernaut considered in
the hyperscalers, but this could make them one. Yeah, it definitely opened the eyes of investors.
When Oracle jumped 36% in a single day on Tuesday, it's like the NFL combine when a
330-pound lineman crushes a 40-yard dash in 4.8 seconds. You don't see this very often.
But true to Oracle's form, here you have a company that still has a lot of other things
happening. And I do think that it obviously bears watching. And Lou is absolutely right
about the RPOs, that this is not guaranteed revenue. And it reminds me of when IMAX used
to have like, we have a backlog of hundreds of screens to install, but they never really happen
because they're in countries and deals and all these things that can fall apart. But with this
particular deal, I think it has a very good chance of going through. And I think if it doesn't,
it's going to be more problematic for OpenAI, the reasons why I wasn't able to go through with it
than for Oracle's bottom line. But again, I'm not only concerned, I think it makes Oracle more
interesting, but I think the stock sort of started to tick down a little bit in the few days after
Tuesday's jump. So I think maybe the investor is saying, well, wait a minute, let's not get
too excited until we see something happen. But it's definitely a positive development for them.
There's no denying that. It's a double since June 1st. So anyone who wants to take a little
gains here, God bless. I don't blame them. Yeah. The other thing on note, we had so many
questions about this deal and I was trying to figure out exactly the details, how you can add
that much, who the counterparty was. The conference call was almost useless for investors because it
seems like the analysts even had no idea what to ask. And they were just congratulating them on a
huge RPO number without sort of digging into, is this contracted? Who's the counterparty? Do they
actually have the money? So a lot to learn there in the future for Oracle. The other AI story to
touch on is Adobe. They reported earnings last night. They're at least trying to make an AI
story out of their business. But Lou, is this something we should be buying into?
You know, so look, very careful here. This is one data point. This is one quarter. And I'm
loathe to read too much into one quarter. But this one data point said that Adobe or suggests that
Adobe can be a net winner from AI. We're all worried about what AI, what free or low-cost
tools will do to Adobe's core business. I sort of think that there's a case to be made that
the professional users of Adobe, they don't want to use what's free, especially when Adobe is using
AI too, and they are making their tools better. I think if you think about this as a marathon,
Adobe has a huge, huge lead. And even if AI can supercharge who's coming up from behind,
AI can also at least add to Adobe speed. So it can keep it, the gap isn't going to close as
quick as as maybe you know it would if if adobe was standing still i worry more about figma here
than adobe travis if i'm honest because look the professional class knows what they know and they've
been using one thing for decades you have to be significantly better or significantly cheaper so
less profitable to take that away but if free and cheap is taking the casual user does ai cannibalize
Figma's attempt to be sort of the disruptor here more than it cannibalizes the incumbent.
And would Canva be the other name to add into that?
Yeah, yeah, yeah. There's a lot of names. There's a lot of names that will do this
on kind of the low end. And if the low end is where the crowd is, then that makes life harder
for the disruptor. Not impossible, but it makes it harder for the disruptor because disruptors
usually go from bottom up. When we come back, I am going to ask Rick and Lou to rank
some baskets of stocks in some interesting categories, media, autonomous vehicles,
and restaurants. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Today, we are going to have Rick and Lou rank their top
stocks in a few different sectors. We've already talked a little bit about media,
so I do want to start there. I'm going to give you five stocks. I want you to rank them
one through five. I'm going to have Lou go first here. Uh, and then we'll, we'll see if we like
his rankings before we get to Rick. So Lou in the media space, I would like you to rank one through
five, Netflix, Disney, Warner brothers, discovery, Comcast and Fox. And here's, here's the information
you need to know. This isn't just, do I like the business? Do I like the product, but also
the valuation matters here. So this is, do I like the stock? Where are you at?
So Disney is probably first with the valuation, but Disney and Netflix are-
Prize winner. Well, these are the top tiers. I probably
feel more, if this was who's definitely just going to make it, and who's, I'd probably go
with Netflix, but I do think Disney is close enough and I do get a little better value,
but those two are in the elite category here. After that, it's a mess to me. I might take WBD
today just because, or I don't know, I would have taken it two days ago before this announcement,
but at least there is maybe an outcome here. Fox is just a mess. I don't know what to say.
Comcast is there because they do have all of the non-streaming revenue. I worry about that revenue.
I mean, the cable is declining. Even streaming, the broadband, it's not the growth opportunity,
or it's not the salvation we thought it was. I would largely rank these as three I worry about
and two I don't, and then the rest is detail. But I'm probably WBD just for outcome,
then Comcast, then Fox going down. Just to put some numbers on those
valuations, Disney's price earnings multiple on a trailing basis is 18, Netflix's 53. So that's
why evaluation matters here. Rick, what's your order? Yeah, so I'm saying valuation doesn't
matter. Obviously, I'm going number one will be Netflix. To me, they are the leader, and I don't
mind overpaying for Netflix. People overpay for Netflix all the time, and I mean the stock,
not the service, and they wind up being rewarded. So Netflix is my number one. Two is Disney is my
favorite company uh but in media it'd be my second favorite stock obviously they have a lot of things
going well for them and it's it's a it's a varied empire but growth has been really slow for disney
the past couple years so it's been a very lackluster stock uh do you think espn can turn
that around or is that is that just going to be sort of hidden in the background you know in the
in the sports numbers the way that they're reporting things um because i i've now used
their streaming app i think it's one of the more compelling new apps they got some bugs uh you know
I'd like to do some add-ons of NFL Plus Camp, figure out how to get that to work.
But they'll figure that stuff out.
But does that end up becoming a growth driver, especially as they start to bundle these services together?
Or is it kind of more of a nothing burger?
I hope it's not a nothing burger.
But even if it wasn't, it'll be found money if it works out.
Because this is a segment that like a year or two years ago, the narrative was, okay, Disney, just spin off ESPN, get rid of it.
Programming costs are so high.
We know ESPN is a great brand, but the cost structure will never work for sports programming,
despite the fact that it's the one thing that people demand to see live.
But I think it'll be fine as far as whether it happens or not.
I don't think it's being valued into the stock right now.
In fact, I assume that ESPN has just accounted for, yeah, it'll be more of the same,
whereas this whole ESPN $30 a month unlimited plan may start to turn heads.
All right. Word about those bottom three. That's where things really get dicey.
Yeah. So Lou seemed to like lump them all as like the three worst ones before sort of just,
you know, ranking them at the end. I'm a little more bold. Yeah. I'll go, I'll say Comcast is
number three. And I know, I know all the bad things about Comcast. I know that we've known
the cable cord cutting has been happening for several years now, more than a decade since we
had peak cable. And, but now surprisingly we're seeing connectivity. So Brian Van, and you're
wondering where are these people going? And it's obviously some of the 5g wireless and all these
companies are doing other products. We still need to connect it. Yeah. Fiber. They're not doing it
necessarily through Comcast. So that's sort of taking a hit, but it's still a cash cow business
these two. And I'll be honest, as a theme park enthusiast, I really, I've been to the Epic
Universe that opened in Florida. I've been there six times, six individual visits since it opened.
It opened in May, but I went there in April for a preview and then a couple of days,
several times this summer. And I think that overall it's doing fine. And more importantly,
the reason I like Comcast as a stock, and you said the stock, not the business, it is selling
at probably the lowest earnings multiple of these five companies, has a dividend of 4%.
So, you're being patient while this company sorts itself out. And to be honest, I just
caught the first episode of The Paper, which is The Office Creator Show, streaming on Peacocks,
and I'm going to keep watching. It's not bad. And Warner Brothers and Discovery and Fox,
I sort of have in the same, like, Lou, forget about these companies. Obviously, with WBD,
you have the fact that it did pop already. So, there's sort of like this appeal that maybe it
does get bought out at a good price, and there's that kind of appreciation. So, there's speculative
appeal to it. But once that goes, there's obviously a lot of downside, too, if it doesn't
happen. So I'll put Warner Brothers fourth and Fox fifth. Comcast trading for 5.6 price earnings
multiple, even on a forward basis, it's under eight. That does not include the around $90
billion worth of debt or net debt that they have. So that's a pretty big number as well. But yeah,
that is interesting value play. Let's move on to more of a growth segment or a certain growth
segment, autonomous vehicles. And there's a lot of things going on here. But Lou, in your neck
of the woods in the Atlanta area, Waymo is now operational. And Lyft launched May Mobility
earlier this week. So these are proliferating. I've seen a May Mobility vehicle in the Minneapolis
area. So it seems like these vehicles are coming faster than a lot of people thought just a few
years ago. Some of them still have safety drivers, but a few of them don't. So here are your five
stocks that I want to know how you think they're going to perform in the future. Tesla, Rivian,
there's an AI autonomous vehicle story there. They have the full stack in-house. They're going
to be level two, but visions of going to level three, level four. Uber, a little bit of a
different play. Mobileye, which is a company that's going to be selling chips and technology
to other automakers. And then WeRide. Rick, I'm going to start with you. How do you rank
these five companies? Yeah. So, um, I'm going to say, so again, we're, we're, we're judging the
stocks, not the book companies. Right. Yeah. Right. That's what makes this tough. Cause Tesla
is valued very differently than a lot of these other companies. Yeah. So, I mean, Tesla would
be, well, yeah, it's, it's a great company. I I'm happy with my Tesla, my second Tesla. Uh,
I mean, I traded my Tesla for Tesla last year, so I'm clearly happy with the experience,
but as far as the stock goes, I'm going to start with Uber at number one. To me, this is a company
that, uh, you thought that, okay, the pandemic, okay, this is when it's going to thrive, but then
post-pandemic, you figure, hey, we're going to go back and we're going to start eating at
restaurants again. We're going to go say, why are we going to be paying someone and tip someone to
have food brought here or groceries when we can go get it ourselves? But sure enough, that business
is still growing heavy free cash flow out of this company. So definitely Uber would be number one on
my list. For number two, I will go Tesla. Again, the valuation frightens me. I'm afraid of what's
going to happen after September when those $7,500 tax credits go by because the Model Y and the
Model 3 are the cars that fall under that category. They're their best sellers by far
in volume and everything else. Volume was down before those subsidy cuts,
so that could be tougher. Right. Yes, yes. Growth has been slow
even to come with. I think this last quarter, this third quarter that we're in right now,
is going to be that last great quarter for them as far as that goes, because that's what I was
going to be buying before to get that last $7,500 check, those that qualify. But again,
I'm sort of concerned about the valuation and everything. Number three, I'm going to go with
Mobileye because I always think a pick and shovels play matters. And there's no denying
that the whole move towards autonomous driving has to be technology-driven and you have to have
a company like Mobileye getting in there and getting the chips and the hardware in there.
So I'm all for that. And number four, between Rivian and WeRide. So I'm not a big fan of Rivian
and I know there's a lot of fools that love Rivian. I'm going to just make it number four
for this sake. But again, I do think that it needs to go mass market the way that we saw with Tesla.
The Model S, the Roadster, the X, they were great cars, but it wasn't until they had that
breakthrough with the Y and the 3 that the company really hit that kind of scale. I don't know if
Rivian can do that without sacrificing the brand that it has. And number five, Oppo, we re-ride
last. And it's also probably the one that may wind up being, it's either going to be the best
are the worst stock of these five. Yeah. Very, very binary. Yeah. Very binary outcome. Again,
a Chinese autonomous driving, uh, trying to get from level two to level four, doing all these
things. And there's so many companies working on this right now. Uh, and I hope they succeed
because who wouldn't want cars that are safer on the road and that we can actually just relax while
we drive. But I don't know if, if as far as investment goes, it may be too early to pick
a winner and it may even earlier to assume that we ride will be the winner. All right, Lou,
where are you at? Yeah. I mean, I'm, I'm somewhat similar for slightly different reasons. I'm Uber
first too. And the reason slightly different, I think if autonomous driving, if we figured it out,
it sort of becomes commoditized at least. And so who controls the customer matters more than I
think the tech and they are in such a great position with that, with just their, their
roster of customers. So I really liked them. I think they're about middle on the valuation thing
of these five too. So you're not getting a bad valuation beyond that. I know you said Travis
focus on valuation. But look, there are a couple of these companies, I don't even know if they're
going to make it. So it's hard to get too caught up in valuation in that. I'm at Mobileye second
because valuation, and I do think again, I've never liked automakers, but I've done real well
with the right auto suppliers. And I think this couldn't be the right auto supplier. I don't love
the valuation I get, so I'm not eager to add here, but I think it's a solid company and winner.
Tesla's third for me. Tesla, I don't know what to think of what they're doing with Robotaxis.
I don't think what to do with their automotive. I think they'll figure it out, but you also have
optionality elsewhere there, which as an investor, I like, you know, energy, solar, all of that.
You want an optimist robot. I know what you're really saying here.
I love dancing robots. Who does not like dancing robots? Okay. At the bottom end, I think, yeah,
I struggle. Rivian, I don't see, especially since we're judging on autonomous, I'm less,
you know, they feel like an afterthought there for me a little.
They've come in really with an autonomous story that a lot of people have bought,
but it does seem a little bit like Fox getting into streaming in 2025. It's like,
if you were going to do this, you should have done it when you went public three or four years ago.
They are still mostly a hardware story, and that is their vehicles. But look, WeRide,
like you said, it's just all over the place. WeRide is everywhere, doing everything. I mean,
look, hardware sales, subscription sales, service revenue. So in a way, wow, look at that
diversification. But in an unregulated, soon-to-be-regulated, there's also just risk all
over the place. You throw in the wild card of the Chinese. I just, I can't get my head around that
one. So it's last for me, just almost on the too hard, who knows? I can't say. It's interesting
how the narrative has changed over the past six months to a year. I don't think a year ago we
would have thought Uber was going to be a leading autonomous vehicle company, but I think you're
right, Lou, and you guys are both heading in the same direction that it seems like there's so many
players here that this is going to commoditize itself one way or another. Quickly, I want to get
to your thoughts on restaurants. Rick, you may be our restaurant expert in this group, but I wanted
to get a feel for where do you rank Chipotle, Darden, Cava, Portillo's, and Wingstop? Because
there's a lot going on here. We've talked about this on a number of shows. People may be sitting
down more, maybe eating out a little bit less. There's growth in certain stocks. It's negative
same-store sales in other stocks, but where do you have these ranked?
Yeah. So, number one, I'm going to go with Kava with the caveat that we're talking about the
stock and that the stock has taken a big hit in recent months. So, this is not Kava from
high-flying where it was several months ago. It's fallen substantially. Comps were up just
2% in its latest quarter, which is not very impressive, but better than most of the other
chains that went negative. Number two, I would say Chipotle, one of the companies that did post
negative comps. It's hard to go bet against Chipotle. And right now, you have a chance to
actually bet on Chipotle while it's out of favor. And just as we saw several years ago, when they
had the food-borne illness outbreak, it's not a bad time to bet on a company when everyone's
assuming that their time is up and they're on their third CEO or whatever. So, Chipotle would
be number two. Third, I would go with Wingstop here. And Wingstop also had a very rough quarter,
but the stock moved up. And you are seeing some signs where this was the company that was so
golden coming out of the pandemic that it was able to just have positive comps, even in the
actual quarter when people had sheltered places, had strong take-up business and strong digital
sales. They were built for this. And then for fourth and fifth, I'm going to go with
Portillo's fourth. And again, it is very speculative. I'm a fan of their hot Italian
beef. I'm a fan of their chocolate cake shake. And it has a lot of room to grow. It has more
upside than all the others. Darden, even though I put them last, they work on a different fiscal
year. Their fiscal year ended in May. We don't know what happened in the summer quarter where
a lot of companies seem to have stumbled. They did post positive comps at Olive Garden and Longhorn
Steakhouse. That's it. That's my one, two, three, five. As a consumer, I'm going to cover nine out
of 10 times. Rick, we're supposed to do valuation even with the declines. It is still by far
an enterprise value to EBITDA. It is still up there. I struggle here.
uh look here's what i'm going to say on this i'm actually going the exact opposite i'm going
darden tops because wall street if i'm an investor wall street pays for growth and i wonder if fast
casual it's a category that didn't really even exist when we were kids guys and has just come
up and become a wonderful thing but i'm wondering if it has just become saturated and reached its
natural limits and i don't know i i'm just not sure if any of these guys will really be able to
post substantial growth. I think we're just doing as much fast casual maybe as we want to. Darden,
tried and true, even in this economy where maybe the fast casual is falling off, but you still go
out to celebrate a night or to do that, I think slow and steady is the play here. It's also,
I think, the second-best valuation among these guys. The rest of them, throw a stone.
I think they can all be market beaters, but I wonder about all of their growth.
I probably, maybe Chipotle's second, Kava, and then Portobello and Wingstop, but I'd really,
really struggle with that. Darden's the standout for me here, and for weird reasons.
So you didn't put this on there, Travis. I mean, no one's going to put Brinker International on it,
but Chili's is the one chain that has post monster comps. And if you look, if you pull up a stock
chart on Brinker International, the ticker symbol EAT, great ticker symbol, has been a monster
stock. And it's again, I don't know what they've done at Chili's. I've gone to Chili's. I go to
Chili's once every couple of months. So I mean, I haven't noticed a turnaround, but something has
happened there, magical over the last two years where they've had strong comps on top of strong
comps and it's working out great for them. But yeah, very much like the Darden story of, you
know, an old brand that you don't necessarily trust, but hey, not necessarily count on being
a growth stock, but definitely an interesting company. And maybe the one to play them all is
Uber. When we come back, we are going to get to stocks on our radar. You're listening to
Motley Fool Money.
As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about,
and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based
solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows The Motley Fool's editorial
standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content and provided
for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show
notes. We like to end the show with stocks on our radar. We're going to have Dan Boyd behind the
glass. Give his thoughts and see what is going to end up on his radar. Rick, I'm going to have you
go first. What's on your radar this week? Yeah, I'm going to go with Celsius, C-E-L-H,
ticker symbol. This is the company behind the sparkling beverage, namesake beverages that has
thermogenesis and all these cool things. The stock had taken a beating from late last year to early
this year to the beginning of this year. And then it made an Alani new acquisition, which basically
transformed everything with starting in April. Their last quarter was amazing growth for a
company that posted negative growth on the Celsius side. And actually, even the Celsius
brand had a positive turnaround. But the company's doing well. PepsiCo got so excited that they own
a piece of the company. They own a bigger piece of the company now just because they want to get
in on that Alani new distribution, not to Celsius. So good times for Celsius Holdings.
Dan, what do you think about Celsius Holdings? I just happen to have one sitting next to me right
I've never had one of these things. I know that they're popular. I assume they're good.
Rick, you got a favorite flavor? I got into the Ilani Nu stuff. I know
actually it's targeted to women, but to me, I enjoy the Cherry Smash. I think that's what
it's called, Cherry Slush flavor of the Ilani Lu. I always enjoyed the orange vibe of Celsius,
if you're asking for that brand. Lou, what's on your radar this week?
Yeah, it's just carbonated Tang, you guys. Come on. But look, I'm bringing Truist Financial,
ticker TFC. Truist is just a poorly named product of a 2019 merger between BB&T and SunTrust. And
on paper, this is a powerful banking franchise with a presence throughout the mid-Atlantic and
Southeast. But look, the integration didn't go well. The stock is underperformed. I'm seeing
signs of life, though. Truist is going on the offensive, announcing plans to open 100 new
branches in high-growth areas. They made a lot of loans during the zero interest rate times.
Those are maturing, which provides an opportunity for repricing and improved profitability.
Right now, you can buy the shares at a discount to the company's book value and get a 4.6
dividend yield to boot. It looks intriguing to me, Dan, for a company, I think, that's
on the upswing. Truist may be a good energy drink name,
but it's a bank. What do you think, Dan? Yeah, the name still stinks. I think
I'm going to have to go with Celsius this time around.
They have really made a big turnaround in investors' eyes over just the past few
months. So I, uh, I'm watching that one as well for Lou Whiteman, Rick Menara is in our production
leader, Dan Boyd, the entire Motley Fool team. I am Travis Hoyum. Thank you for listening to
Motley Fool money. We'll see you here tomorrow.
