Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing - Motley Fool Money: 09.16.2011

Episode Date: September 16, 2011

Shares of Netflix tumble after the company reports lower subscriber growth.  Shares of Research in Motion plunge on weaker-than-expected earnings. And Warren Buffett makes a surprising addition to th...e Berkshire Hathaway portfolio.  Our analysts discuss those stories and share some stocks on their radar.  Plus, corporate governance expert and film critic Nell Minow talks Apple, Costco, and Fall film fare. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Chris Hill. Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money. From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money. Welcome to Motley Fool Money. Thanks for being here. I'm your host, Chris Hill. And joining me in studio this week, for Motley Fool Hidden Gems, Seth Jason. For Motley Fool Income Investor, James Early. And for Motley Fool Global Games, Tim Hanson. Guys, good to see you as always. Good to see you, Chris, as always. We have got the latest on Netflix, Berkshire Hathaway, alternative energy, and more. We've also got a few stocks on our radar. But our lead story this week marks the three-year
Starting point is 00:00:42 anniversary of when Lehman Brothers collapsed. Now comes growing predictions that a Lehman-like crisis is looming, only this time starring European banks and governments. Tim Hanson, and I will start with you. What is your latest on what's going on in Europe? Well, we've got unprecedented cooperation this week with the European Central Bank, the U.S. Fed, the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the Swiss teaming up to offer unlimited dollar funding for European banks for the rest of the year. Wow. It's like the Justice League of Superheroes. Wow. I guess it's just like that. They may be less effective, though. I mean,
Starting point is 00:01:18 they're not solving any problems. They're basically making money available to banks so that they can not collapse right now. But at some point you need to solve the underlying problem here, which is that European sovereign debt is rapidly moving in on distressed levels. The banks own it. Crises of confidence are building. They're not lending to each other. The government is stepping in to fill the gap.
Starting point is 00:01:39 But you can only fill the gap for so long, and nothing has been solved. James? Yeah, the problem started with the private sector first, and it's sort of like with friends. If people think that other people think that you're uncool, they won't want to hang out with you. And that's what's happening with a lot of these European banks. People are worried about them, so these banks can't suddenly find dollars to borrow
Starting point is 00:02:00 when they have a lot of these dollar-denominated contracts. And that's where the European Central Bank came in to make these anonymous dollar loans so they could keep going. But if it weren't for the banks, the central bank, they would be in bigger trouble. The immediate issue this week was the very poorly kept secret that Moody's was about to downgrade French banks. And so Credit Advocate Cole and SoakGen, they were dropping. The downgrade came out, and it said, you know, we actually think their capital base is okay,
Starting point is 00:02:27 but we're worried that because they're uncool and because everybody's worried they're not going to be able to get their short-term needs funded. And so, I mean, I actually considered buying them on that horrible news as kind of a flyer of a trade. And I believe my exact words to my colleagues who were laughing at me like I was an idiot was, There's no way the central banks of the world are going to let them have a liquidity problem. The next day, the central bank says, no way are we going to let them have a liquidity problem. But as Tim noted, we still don't know if the debt that's on their books will eventually become worthless. Yeah, two banks this week did already borrow $800 million over a short-term period.
Starting point is 00:03:04 You know, at some point, Europe is heading towards capitulation here because what the, you know, political and policy officials are doing is so dissonant from what the population of Europe wants that, you know, they have elections there. Eventually, the tide is going to turn. And when that happens, there's going to be there's going to be a larger crisis. So other than taking a page out of, I guess, everyone but Seth in terms of, you know, not looking to buy into or trade on these banks, what is the impact for U.S. investors? I think it's just, you know, from an investing standpoint, just stay away. I think it's too hard. Some sovereign wealth funds are stepping up with money. You know, we saw the Qatari fund drop money into Greece to subsidize a merger there. But, you know, sovereign wealth funds are notoriously bad investors because they invest with political goals in mind rather than economic
Starting point is 00:03:56 goals. You know, sovereign wealth fund, all it exists to do is get money out of the country it represents. And if it can, you know, while doing that along the way, raise the influence of its home country, the better it can do that. But don't follow this quote unquote smart money because it's not that smart. And they're investing with very different aims in mind than an individual investor would. James? And the biggest global problem besides Europeans losing their eight weeks of vacation and if i were i'd be writing too i'd be writing too um is is don't you take 10 weeks chance i wish there were a lot of the philippines i was working in the philippines okay for the record i sent emails i was on the top of the mountain um yeah that was well anyhow um a lot
Starting point is 00:04:34 of these contracts are tied to libor the london interbank office race by contracts i mean debt contracts between uh companies between parties all around the world so so far libor is not really risen much, surprisingly. But if that were to rise, that would really dampen global liquidity. I'm wild and crazy. I would look at some of these banks as short-term trades, especially the French banks, because I not only think that the French government is going to bend over backwards to save the entities, but that they're probably going to try to backstop even the equity itself. But that's kind of a crazy trade. I wouldn't recommend it for everybody. Shares of Netflix down more than 20% this week after the company lowered expectations
Starting point is 00:05:15 for U.S. subscribers for the third quarter. In July, Netflix had forecast 25 million subscribers. That number was lowered to 24 million. Seth, Netflix, long-time recommendation of our Motley Fool Stock Advisor service, and over the long haul it's been a huge winner, but this is a stock that in the last two months has dropped 45% in value. Well, only because it went up about 8 billion percent value for the preceding few months. Netflix's math is wrong. They need to subtract one more person from the disc plan. In preparation for the show, I waved goodbye and said, see you later.
Starting point is 00:05:49 I'm not paying for those crummy discs, the extra seven bucks a month. I think this is worse news than a lot of Netflix investors would like to imagine because Rick Munarez on our site wrote a good article about this, that the disc business, while often being sort of painted as the anchor on Netflix because of mailing costs and those kind of things, it actually had a pretty good competitive moat because of the distribution centers and everything. And when you're going straight online only, you lose a lot of that. It's much easier to switch an internet-based subscription. I think there's more competition in that space. None of it is as big as Netflix right now,
Starting point is 00:06:26 But Hulu and Vudu and Amazon and iTunes all offer decent, if somewhat different, plans that can compete here. And I think this ultimately becomes a race to decide among the main players who's willing to accept the thinnest margins. And if that happens, Netflix shareholders are going to be really unhappy. Tim? I think the interesting thing is that Seth started naming all the companies that are competing in this sort of online content delivery space. And what they all have in common is somewhat crazy valuations, which means that you're implying that every one of those companies is going to have significant, maybe greater than 50% market share of this online content distribution industry. But market share can only add up to 100%, which means for every winner out there, if you believe Apple is going to be the winner, then you probably need to be betting against Netflix. If you think Google TV is going to take off, you should be betting against both of them.
Starting point is 00:07:16 They can't all win, but the market seems to think they all can right now. What does Reed Hastings, the CEO, do now? I mean, the latest thing that we've heard, you look back over the last two months, they come out, they raise prices. Then comes the news that negotiations with Starz has broken off. So, they're going to be losing their Starz content. Now comes this news where they're lowering guidance on subscribers. It kind of seems like the CEO really needs to cut a big deal here on the content side of things. Well, he's got the best list of sort of user data and number of users and whatnot. So he's just got to figure out the best way to hold on to them.
Starting point is 00:07:57 And, you know, I think content is one solution to that. There may be some other bells and whistles Netflix can add to make that happen in terms of reliability or pricing. But I think content is probably the best lever they can pull. Yeah, the trouble is the content providers have decided they're not going to let Netflix pull their lever. They're going to make them pay a lot more for the proposal, for the privilege. Forbes, among other media outlets, raised the question of acquisition, that Netflix, as its market cap continues to go down, increasingly becomes a target for acquisition. Reed Hastings sits on the board of Microsoft and Facebook. Do either of those make for likely candidates,
Starting point is 00:08:38 or does a company with really deep pockets like Google make better sense? If you had to bet on one of those, what would you bet on? Seth? I don't think we're anywhere near that point. I think the stock would have to become much more distressed. It would make the most sense for somebody like Amazon at the right price. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. We're here every week, but for daily analysis on the latest money news, check our daily podcast, MarketFoolery, on iTunes and at marketfoolery.com. Shares of research in motion down big on Friday after the BlackBerry maker reported disappointing earnings and lowered guidance for the next quarter. James Early, in February,
Starting point is 00:09:14 Shares of Research in Motion were at 70. Today it's in the mid-20s. I don't know what the problem with American capitalism is. We can't just declare our business dead in the water and move on. So you're saying it should be at zero? Yeah, they should abandon this effort sooner rather than later because it's obviously going underground. and they see that, but they're just going to try, and the end result is wringing every drop of potential profit out of the business, and his shareholder is going to be worse off,
Starting point is 00:09:45 potentially debt holder is going to be worse off. I just see the train wreck coming a mile away, and it's sad. Tim Hanson, where's the value in this business? I'll take the other side of this. I mean, there's still a beeper company listed on the NASDAQ that's making $100 million a year. So, I mean, these technologies can take a long time to go away. Research in Motion has $1.4 billion in cash. Sales declined this quarter, but they're still generating about $2 billion a year in free cash flow. Do the math on that. With an $11 billion market gap, they could buy back the entire company in five and a half years. Do all the BlackBerrys go away in five and a half years? I don't think so. They've got some interesting prepaid offerings in emerging markets. And
Starting point is 00:10:23 obviously, the U.S. government is sticking with them because of the security features that they offer. So at the present valuation, I'm actually a little bit intrigued. I agree with James. The Businesses in decline, but even declining businesses are worth something. Intrigued? Are you saying this could be your stock on your radar this week? It could be. Seth, what do you think? Just play that funeral dirge, I think. I'm with James on this one.
Starting point is 00:10:46 Coming up, the latest development on the business story our listeners can't seem to get enough about. That's right, I'm talking about Tang. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Chris Hill here in the studio with Seth Jason, James Early, and Tim Hanson. London police have charged a UBS trader with fraud after he lost $2 billion on unauthorized trades. Seth Jason, UBS is calling this guy a rogue trader. What else are you going to call him?
Starting point is 00:11:19 If he made a lot of money, they would have quietly not called him a rogue trader had sort of ushered him out of the building or... Or promoted him. Or promoted him, yeah. There aren't a lot of details out about this gentleman. So far, I read a bit of his bio, and he seems like he was a conscientious student from a prestigious private school in England
Starting point is 00:11:38 and worked his way up through the ranks and was working on a low-risk Delta I or something trading desk. Yes, it was a low-risk trading desk, but the name of the trading desk was Delta I. Yeah, so the risks themselves that that desk was taking were apparently judged to be low-risk. But, of course, if you are committing fraud, which is the accusation here, then you can have some real high risk for the company.
Starting point is 00:12:04 And that's exactly what happened. They're talking about a $2 billion loss. They may get a credit downgrade. That's just, everyone's getting a credit downgrade. At least this is a fine time to stomach one of those. Yeah. I mean, on the other hand, what can you do? No matter how good your security is,
Starting point is 00:12:21 There are going to be people who work from the inside who will try to figure out ways around it. So I don't know that I'm too hard on UBS for this, but I will note that the acronym stands for used to be smart. James? And you might think, well, this is just a little bit of rogue trading. How bad can it be? But $2 billion is enough, I've read, that would match up the equivalent of laying off 3,500 workers, which is a pretty big impact for one guy to have. Warren Buffett announced his latest hire this week.
Starting point is 00:12:49 Ted Weschler, a hedge fund manager with Peninsula Capital Advisors. He'll be joining Berkshire Hathaway to run a portion of its investments. James Early, one thing we know about this guy is that for two years in a row, he won a charity auction lunch with Warren Buffett, paid more than $5 million to do so. What else do we know about this guy? It was a $5.3 million job interview, essentially, and it worked out. This guy wasn't angling for a job, apparently, but Buffett was so enamored by him that he pursued him. and made him an offer, and this guy's accepted, obviously.
Starting point is 00:13:21 This guy has $2 billion in his hedge fund in Charlottesville, Virginia, invested in just nine companies, Chris, and that's very interesting to me. And they're mostly, or like half of them are media companies, like DirecTV, TiVo, Liberty Media, some kind of coupon company. TiVo. And that's kind of a different wheelhouse from what Warren Buffett does currently. So I would expect this guy will get some kind of small couple billion dollar allocation at first and get a chance to prove himself over time.
Starting point is 00:13:47 Tim? He has a great track record, though. You know, his returns have been unbelievable since inception of his fund. And he interestingly actually enjoyed this in his shareholder letters. He compared his fund's returns to the Berkshire B share. So not just against the market, but against another smart investor, which I think is a nice methodology and one that more money managers should adopt. Seth, let me ask you this.
Starting point is 00:14:06 He's a marathon runner also, and he did, I think, three hours and 30 minutes for the New York City Marathon. Is that good? How old is he? He's 50. He's 50? Yeah, that's decent. That's pretty decent. Go, Ted.
Starting point is 00:14:17 All right, I'm going down to challenge Ted to the Charlottesville Marathon this coming spring. Come on, Ted, let's do it. This week in alternative energy, the White House is dealing with political fallout this week from granting more than $500 million in federal loans to Solyndra, a solar energy company that recently went bankrupt. Tim Hanson, there are a lot of aspects to this story that you really find enjoyable. This is a train wreck on so many levels, from the vetting process down through the decision to lend the money down to, you know, there was actually a recommendation against this
Starting point is 00:14:49 loan from bureaucrats in the government, career, you know, government officials that said, basically, don't make the loan. We suspect the company will run out of money in September 2011. And they were wrong. They nailed it. They ran out of money a few days before that. September 6th, they officially declared bankruptcy. I mean, this thing was doomed from the start. Its business model was that it made solar panels that cost $6 per watt to make, and they sold them for $3. Wow. And then they got a $500 million loan from taxpayers at no interest rate to expand capacity. There's a lesson for investors here, which is a lot of hype surrounds the green tech space, but business models matter.
Starting point is 00:15:33 And they don't all blow up in a period of 16 months, but they will blow up. Yeah, remember all those car companies, the hundreds of car companies that existed at the dawn of the automobile age in the United States? No, nobody remembers them at all. Now, if they'd all gotten $500 million interest-free loans from the government, they would have survived. Oh, wait. And finally, we had talked earlier this year about the fact that Tang is the latest billion-dollar brand for craft. Recently got a letter from Michel Leroy of New York City. Hope I'm pronouncing his name correctly.
Starting point is 00:16:05 Michel. He and his wife are regular listeners to this show and to our daily MarketFoolery podcast. They were traveling in Mexico and picked up a packet just for us, sent it our way, of tuna tang. Sweet. Now, just in case you get a little squeamish, as I first did when I got an email from him saying, I'm sending you tuna tang, it's tuna which is Spanish for cactus flower. So it's not fish-flavored tang. Oh, this is so much better.
Starting point is 00:16:28 Yes, yes. And we actually mixed some up. And we're going to compare it. We're going to compare it to what did you get, Seth? Another Colombian tang that we got a month or so ago from Nick Slepko, who starts his letter to us, dear MFers. He had me at MFers, of course. Hopefully he's referring to Motley Foolers. So we're going to compare the two.
Starting point is 00:16:47 The flavor of this one is something called Lulo Orange or Naranjilla, which is not actually an orange, but it's an orange-type fruit with a weird green inside. Which one should we do first? Let's do the Lulo Orange. Which one is it, the dark one? The dark green, everyone. It's sort of a dark green. Wow, that's sweet, among other things. Well, I didn't measure, but it's not terrible.
Starting point is 00:17:14 It's rejuvenating. If somebody gave this to you and it was the only thing you had to drink, you wouldn't turn it down. Absolutely. Let's move over to the tuna tang, which is a lighter shade of green. Oh, this smells weird. I need a pellet. Oh, my God. Oh, wow.
Starting point is 00:17:28 There was a blogger online, a dude with a beard, who's trying all these flavors of Mexican Tang. I'm going to drink more Colombian Tang. And he said of this tuna one, he said, if they had tried to make it taste like actual fish, it would have been better, and I think he's right. That's horrible. Our colleague, Aaron Kennedy, one of our editors, actually smelled the tuna Tang, and she said, and I quote, it smells like crayons mixed with gummy bears.
Starting point is 00:17:55 That's what it tastes like. I was going to say. It looks like Mr. Queen. And I wish it tasted that good. It has an aftertaste that I can only compare to when you're putting on cutter bug spray and you keep your mouth open. I was going to say it's like something you accidentally drank at the end of a college party. Drop us an email, radioatfull.com. And please send us the weirdest tang from your country.
Starting point is 00:18:15 I'm glad we got a chance to try this. Your horizons are expanding. We've gotten more mileage out of this tang topic than I would have ever. And notice how we did not go the low route on the tang jokes. No, other shows would have done that, but not us. Not a car talk. Exactly. Seth J. Servers, James Early, Tim Hanson.
Starting point is 00:18:33 Guys, we'll see you later in the show. As always, you can drop us an email, radioatfool.com. And yes, by all means, send us the more exotic flavors of Tang you've encountered. Coming up, Nell Minow on Costco, Apple, and the state of the movie business. Stay right here. This is Motley Fool Money. Send lawyers, guns, and money. Dad, get me out of this.
Starting point is 00:18:57 Ha! Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Chris Hill. Nell Minow is with Governance Metrics International. Businessweek has called her the queen of good corporate governance. And when she's not grading boards of directors, she is reviewing films as the movie mom. Nell, welcome. Thank you very much. Always great to talk to you. I want to talk boards of directors and movies,
Starting point is 00:19:18 but I want to start with Warren Buffett, who made news with his latest hire, Ted Weschler, a hedge fund manager, who first met Buffett after he was the winning bidder in a charity auction to have lunch with Buffett. You've interviewed Warren Buffett. What did you make of this news? I thought it was excellent news. Everything I've heard about Weschler makes him sound like he is truly a kindred spirit of Warren Buffett. He's got humility. He had a three-person office in Charlottesville, literally above the store. And just, you know, is a true believer in fundamentals, which, of course, I'm sure makes Warren very happy. And I love the idea that not once but twice, he was a high bidder, over $2 million of time. So that's $5 million to get a
Starting point is 00:20:07 job interview, I guess. Now, Berkshire has said that it may hire one additional manager. Wessler met with Buffett, got a job out of it. You've recently met with Warren Buffett. I'm just curious, are you scoping out houses in the Omaha area? I would do it in a heartbeat, but I'm afraid I am not good at fundamentals, and I don't think that would work out. Along with Ted Weschler, Todd Combs was hired by Berkshire in the last couple of years. So when it comes to succession planning. There are a lot of possibilities. I'm curious, who do you think is going to succeed Warren Buffett? I think that the only way to succeed Warren Buffett is to divide up all the various things he does among more than one person. He has said that to me, and he said that to other
Starting point is 00:20:58 people as well. It's not a secret. And so I would not be surprised if all three of them, including the player to be named later, got the job. You're listening to Motley Fool Money, talking with Nell Minow. Apple, obviously, in the news recently, Tim Cook has replaced Steve Jobs as CEO. And as a bonus, Cook got 1 million shares of Apple stock worth $384 million. These are shares that vest over the next 10 years. You said that this bonus is disappointing, but not surprising. Why do you say that? Well, because this is another serial offender, particularly in the area of CEO compensation. And I think it's a horrifying message to the new CEO and to the market. I really was hoping that they would have some sort of performance-based pay, but just to
Starting point is 00:21:56 essentially give him all that money up front, which even if the stock goes down substantially, will still be a tremendously large piece of compensation. I thought it was very, very disappointing. Just stepping back from Apple, but I'm going to use Apple as an example. In your work looking at boards of directors, do you often see this kind of disconnect? Because when you look at Apple as a company and the way the business has been run, it has been a very well-run business over the last 10 years. Certainly, the stock has been a monster performer for shareholders.
Starting point is 00:22:35 And yet, getting your take on it, their board of directors really is not as strong as the management and business would indicate. I'm curious if that's sort of the norm. I don't think it's the norm, but I do think it is not unusual for a founder-led company. It's what happens then that's the problem. So companies that are founder-led, first of all, are obviously new. They're fairly young. There's a tremendous amount of momentum there. The vision that got them successful in the first place is still at the helm.
Starting point is 00:23:08 And even though I strongly disagree with the compensation for Steve Jobs, the fact is that he was emotionally and financially invested in the company above and beyond the compensation and therefore very focused. It's where corporate governance really becomes much more critical is after the founder leaves. And, of course, Jobs is very much still there. But when the manager takes over for the visionary, that can be a real problem, and that's when you really need a strong board of directors. One of our favorite CEOs here at The Motley Fool is Jim Sinegal, the CEO of Costco.
Starting point is 00:23:48 and in keeping with his style, he very recently announced that he was stepping down. But, of course, it was done so buried in a press release that was about August sales figures for Costco. I'm curious what thoughts you have about Jim Senegal and the legacy that he's left at Costco. Yeah, he's one of my favorites as well. And, really, he is an exemplar of what I like to see in a founder CEO. He did not go crazy about pay because he correctly said that he was already deeply invested in the company and had every possible incentive to make it work. I love the way that he paid his employees a little bit better,
Starting point is 00:24:30 a little bit better benefits in the competition because he correctly said that that would make them more motivated and more loyal. And, of course, I love it as a consumer as well, And, you know, I hope he is as good at CEO succession planning as he was in creating and running that business. You're listening to Motley Fool Money, talking with Nell Minow, corporate governance expert and film critic. Let's talk about movies. How is the movie business doing these days? The movie business is sort of in a Dickensian best of times, worst of times.
Starting point is 00:25:04 You know, they had very, very good box office returns. But if you peek a little bit into it, you see that there's some concerns there, some red flags there. There were a lot of 3-D movies this summer, and that ups the box office price. So if you adjust for that premium, they were not as good as last year. And a lot of the things that were very reliable last year were not as successful. I'm going to tell you something that may really shock you, which is that it certainly shocked everybody in Hollywood that the superhero movies did not do as well as the R-rated comedies this summer. And, of course, they cost lots more. A couple movies with a lot of buzz that are coming out this fall I want to get your thoughts on.
Starting point is 00:25:51 First, this is one that I was telling you earlier, I don't often root for movies, but I'm really rooting for this one because I very much want it to be a great film. And that's Moneyball. It is a great film. Yay! I've seen it, and it is just absolutely terrific, and Brad Pitt, you mark my words, he's going to get an Oscar nomination for this. I thought it was excellent, but how are you going to go wrong? It had the director from Capote and two of the best screenwriters of all time, Aaron Sorkin, of course, of West Wing and Social Network, and Steve Zalian of Schindler's List
Starting point is 00:26:27 and Searching for Bobby Fischer, and it is extremely well done, and I want to give big props to whoever did the casting for it, because I'll tell you, the guys who play the baseball scouts, they really look like they have spent a lifetime out in left field, you know, catching pop-ups. And it's just beautifully, beautifully done. Really smart. And of course, I have to say that there is always something very satisfying about a sports movie where the nerds come out ahead of the jocks. Now, for those listeners who may not know, Moneyball is based on the Michael Lewis bestseller about the Oakland A's, and in particular, their general manager, Billy Bean, and the ways that he was able to essentially crack the code on scouting and find
Starting point is 00:27:12 value among players that didn't cost a lot of money. When Michael Lewis was here at the Motley Fool, one of the things he shared with us that Billy Bean was upset about one part of the book in particular, and I'm curious if this has made it into the film, and that was that apparently Billy Bean drops F-bombs just left and right in real life, in the office, that sort of thing, and that made it into Michael Lewis's book, and Bean was worried that his mother was going to be upset by that. I'm just curious, is this now an R-rated film because of Billy Bean's language? I think it's a PG-13 rated film, and he comes across just great in the movie. He comes across, and the scenes with Billy Bean and his daughter are absolutely wonderful, so I think his mom will
Starting point is 00:27:57 be very proud of him. Yeah, it is a PG-13. I just checked. You're listening to Motley Fool Money, talking with Nell Minow, corporate governance expert and film critic. Before we wrap up with a round of buy, sell, or hold, as I said, this is when the Oscar buzz starts to heat up. Do you have any early predictions for Best Picture? Oh, for Best Picture? That is tough. I think The Help may get a nomination, which is unusual for a summer film. And I think that sort of my absolutely out in left field suggestion is that at Cannes, a movie called The Artist, which would be the first silent film release in 80 years, got a ton of awards. And everybody's very excited about that one. So you may see that one at Oscar time. And just one or two movies that
Starting point is 00:28:49 that maybe you've got a beat on that there's not a lot of buzz on? Well, one that I'm really interested in is The Skin I Live In. Antonio Banderas is back with the director who really got him started, Pedro Almodar. So anything the two of them do together I think is going to be absolutely fascinating. And then here's one that should be very dear to your heart, Kevin Spacey in Margin Call. Oh, yes. I think we're going to have a special screening at the Motley Fool for Margin Call. Excellent.
Starting point is 00:29:18 Excellent. And then I have to say, my guilty pleasure thought of the upcoming months, I have to say that I think Real Steel, the Rock'em Sock'em Robots movie, looks like a lot of fun. Really? Yeah. This is the movie where boxing among humans is outlawed, but boxing with robots is okay. Among robots, with Hugh Jackman. Yeah, it kind of looks like the champ. You know, I like it. I think the Harold and Kumar movie, now that's going to be in 3D. I think that's going to be funny.
Starting point is 00:29:44 And I think the worst movie of the year, clearly, is going to be Adam Sandler playing boy and girl twins in Jack and Jill. You get no argument from me on that one. All right, let's wrap up with a round of Buy, Sell, or Hold. She plays Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady, which will be in theaters in December. Buy, Sell, or Hold, another Academy Award from Meryl Streep. You know, she gets nominated every year. It's been a long, long time since she won. So I think this could do it for her.
Starting point is 00:30:12 The trailer looks tremendous. This company has recently come under fire for its price hike, but it does have 20 million subscribers. So buy, sell, or hold the future of Netflix, the service? I think I would go with a sell on that. I think that they are going to be overtaken by Hulu, which looks like a stronger service going forward. So I think Netflix handled their price increase very poorly. This might be the most divisive candy in the theater lobby. Buy, sell, or hold Twizzlers.
Starting point is 00:30:50 People like Twizzlers because there's no fat in them. So I think that's definitely a buy. And finally, we've had a number of books about him. Buy, sell, or hold a full-length movie about Warren Buffett. Oh, my goodness. He would deserve a miniseries. Absolutely. It would be great.
Starting point is 00:31:07 Who do you think should play him? Ed Asner. He did a good job playing him in Too Big to Fail. She is the queen of good corporate governance at Governance Metrics International. She is the movie mom, and she is one of our favorites. Nell Minow, thanks so much for being here. My pleasure. Coming up, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar. this is Motley Fool Money. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they
Starting point is 00:31:47 talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. I'm Chris Hill, and back in the studio with me, Seth Jason, James Early, and Tim Hanson. Time for the stocks on our radar, brought to you by Encore Insurance Services. Do you have life insurance, but think you might be paying too much, Encore may be able to help. For a free rate quote, visit their website at smartterm.com or call toll-free 866-347-5748. They'll compare rates to help you save. Licensing and disclaimer information can be found online at smartterm.com. All right, guys, we're going to bring in our man Steve Broido from the other side of the glass with a question for you about the stock on your
Starting point is 00:32:26 radar. Tim Hanson, we will start with you. Is it research in motion? No, it is not. I promised to read more about the company, but on my radar this week is an Indian bank called HDFC Bank, which is a fast-growing retail bank in India. They have promised over the last few years and for the next few years to grow faster than the industry average. They've achieved that, but at the same time, maintain one of the best capital and loan performance ratios in the industry. It's always been expensive, but the price has recently been dropping with the downturn in the Indian stock market. And so, this is an opportunity to get a great company with a great growth story at a relatively historically low price tag.
Starting point is 00:33:04 And the ticker symbol? Is HDB on the New York Stock Exchange. Steve Reuter, question for Tim. Sure. So I've heard that banks are relatively unpopular right now. It's just a rumor. Are they as unpopular in India as they are here? They are not as unpopular in India because, as you might guess from a relatively underbanked culture in India, they haven't yet gotten into sort of exotic credit default swaps and things. Rogue traders.
Starting point is 00:33:25 What about rogue traders? The core of Indian banking is sort of home loans and motorbike loans. So as long as you can assess the quality of the person you're lending to, it's a pretty plain, vanilla business. And the nice thing is that the biggest competitor in the Indian market for HDFC is the State Bank of India, run by the state. If you know anything about the Indian state, they're not the best competition. So it's a nice opportunity for HDFC.
Starting point is 00:33:50 Tim, do you have a question for Steve? Yeah, Steve, how are you doing today? You've been a little grim recently. Oh, no, I'm doing fine. The baby's coming, so there's just a lot on our minds. Wow. When is that baby coming out? November 6th. All right. Mark your calendars. We will plan accordingly. Can we do a Motley Fool money baby pool?
Starting point is 00:34:07 Why don't we just do a broadcast from the delivery room? Yeah, I'm sure Steve's lovely bride would love that. James Early, your stock this week. Chris, I'm going with a stock that has not raised its dividend in a long time. It's been sucking wind operationally. Its name is Veolia. The ticker is VE. And this is a French company that does water and sewage and garbage trucks and some public buses and streetlights. Mainly a water and sewage company and also some destabilization stuff, taking the salt out of the water. This stock has like an 11% yield now because the price has been beaten down.
Starting point is 00:34:44 It used to be an income investor recommendation. I sold it. I'm glad I did. But I'm wondering if it's a good time to buy now that it's been whacked so hard. Steve, question for James? Sure. What's the biggest opportunity moving forward for this company? Steve, Veolia has a lot of stable business in France, but it's also very strong internationally and in emerging markets. And those are really going to be the driving markets for this company
Starting point is 00:35:05 going forward because a lot of these people don't have running water and they definitely don't have sewage. So that's going to be a priority. And once you get that, you don't want to give it up. James, do you have a question for Steve? Steve, what is your opinion on the water and sewage industry in the U.S.? Is it something that you would avoid investing in? Because that's something that we always think about as income investors. It's something that people don't really think about, and it's not really on their radar, and that's the reason we like it. Has it been on your radar?
Starting point is 00:35:29 Yeah, absolutely. I think water and sewage stuff sounds like a lot of fun. Why? Just in general. Everyone needs toilets, and everyone needs running water. Half the world would debate you on that. If the economy turns sour, the last thing we're not going to pay is the water bill, I think. Fair enough. Seth Jason, stock on your radar this week. I'm going to have to go with radaring Netflix and radaring Research in Motion. And I wouldn't say short them, and I wouldn't even say buy the short options
Starting point is 00:36:00 because I think it's going to take a long time for them to unwind. But I would sure say stay away because I think both business models are undergoing some change toward less profitability, if not complete obsolescence. And so there's easier money to be made out there. Steve, question for Seth? Sure. In terms of Netflix, you know, everyone makes this big deal about Netflix and streaming movies. Where do you see the world going in terms of where will I watch streaming movies in one year and let's say 10 years from now? Will I watch them on my computer, on my flat screen? Well, you'll watch them everywhere, I think, because right now, I mean, I've got, you know, Hulu on my Xbox. I've got it on my TV upstairs. Downstairs, I've got an internet-ready Samsung TV, which has its own built-in Hulu app. You can get a Hulu app on, I think, your iPhone and your iPad. You sound like a pitchman.
Starting point is 00:36:45 Well, yeah. I think you have to be a pitch man for all the other services. There's Vudu, there's iTunes, there's the Amazon Unboxed stuff, which doesn't come on a lot of devices right now, but it certainly could. So I think the competition will be everywhere, and I think that's, in essence, the real problem for Netflix. Question for Steve? Can I interest you in some fine tuna tang, Steve? I'm not interested at all. I heard that segment earlier. It was terrible. I would like to not ever drink that. The segment wasn't terrible. Chris tried his best. The segment was great, but the discussion on the beverages was revolting. I thought Chris sold it well. Thank you, Tim. Thank you. All right. In the one minute we have left,
Starting point is 00:37:26 let's just go around the table. Something you're working on next week on Motley Fool Global Gains, Tim? We've got some neat scorecard data called MyScorecard that lets us know how many members of our service own which stocks. And so we're looking at the least owned stocks and trying to cross-reference those with the stocks we think are the best buys in our service now, and then try to highlight those little-owned, good-buy stocks to our members. James Early?
Starting point is 00:37:48 That's fascinating. One thing in income investment? I am looking at dumpster diving in Europe. I think there are a lot of steady businesses that are not- Yeah, exactly. Or sewage diving, whatever you want to- that's probably more accurate. I think there are a lot of good companies, good yielders that are going to bounce back. Seth, what about in hidden gems? I'm going to sit down and think a little bit more about Chipotle's valuation in light of
Starting point is 00:38:10 the recent opening of their new concept. Which you went to. Which was, yeah, a shophouse, East Asian kitchen, they call it. The name is too long, but the food was amazing. And I think it's got real potential. I only wish Chipotle had plans to open more than the one. All right. Seth Jason, James Early, Tim Hanting.
Starting point is 00:38:27 Guys, thanks for being here. Thank you, Chris. Thanks for our guest this week, Nell Minow. That's it for this edition of Motley Fool Money. Our engineer is Steve Broido. Our producer is Matt Greer. I'm Chris Hill. Thanks for listening.
Starting point is 00:38:37 We'll see you next week.

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