Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing - Netflix, Amazon, and the Future of Sports Media
Episode Date: April 20, 2018Amazon gives Wall Street 100 million reasons to be bullish. Netflix produces another great quarter. Wells Fargo gets a billion-dollar fine. And Mattel’s CEO jumps ship. Ron Gross, Jason Moser an...d David Kretzmann analyze those stories and share 3 stocks on their radar. Plus, best-selling author Jim Miller offers his thoughts on the business of ESPN, Disney, and the future of sports media. Thanks to Blooom for supporting MarketFoolery. Get a month free with blooom401k.com/fool and use the promo code “fool”. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Managing your 401k is hard. Bloom isn't. See what you could be doing to make your 401k better by
getting a free analysis at bloom401k.com slash fool. That's Bloom with three O's, 401k.com slash
fool. Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money.
From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money.
It's the Motley Fool Money radio show. I'm Chris Hill, and joining me in studio this week,
senior analysts Jason Moser, David Kretzmann, and Ron Gross. Good to see you, as always, gentlemen.
Howdy. How you doing?
We've got the latest headlines from Wall Street. We'll dig into the business of ESPN with best-selling author Jim Miller.
And as always, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar.
But we begin with the two big numbers of the week, $100 million and $1 billion.
In his annual letter to shareholders this week, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos revealed the company has
100 million members in its prime service. And on Friday, Wells Fargo agreed to a $1 billion fine
as punishment for home and auto loan abuses. Let's start with Amazon, Jason.
and this is the first time they've ever disclosed the number of people who are in the Prime service.
Did this surprise you even a little bit?
Well, I always figured at some point we would get an actual number from Jeff Bezos.
I think he was just looking for a meaningful number.
And $100 million seems kind of meaningful, so, you know, nice timing there.
I mean, I think we've said it for a while, and Amazon is obviously a recommendation in many of our services,
but the Prime membership is just the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for this company.
I mean, that is what dictates this company's strategy.
So, now we have a good idea of how big that pot of gold is.
In regard to the shareholder letter, I mean, I cannot recommend enough that everybody listening read it,
because he just, every year, it's always a good one.
This one, he's talking more about high standards, and I actually called on every high school in the country.
You have a free day here for teachers just to teach these high school students one day,
take that letter, and just, it'd be a good class. I think it would stoke a lot of good
discussions for kids that need to be thinking about high standards in these days. Another
thing that stood out to me, and our colleague Matty Argersinger and I were talking about this
yesterday, is the bullet point India, right? Anytime you actually have a country as a bullet
point in the letter, you know it's probably kind of important. And with India, and we think about
how many Prime subscribers there are, we've got a lot more to come, because India is just
getting started. And that's a country with 1.3 billion people and a GDP per capita of
only around $1,800 today. So, big opportunity. Yeah, and the e-commerce opportunity in India
is really just heating up. You have Walmart trying to, supposedly, acquire Flipkart, which
is either the leading or second-leading e-commerce company in India. So, that'll be just a fascinating
competitive battle in the coming years. Something else that stood out to me, besides Jeff Bezos
talking about what he learned from handstands and litter, a little teaser there to go read it,
if you haven't already, just the inroads that Amazon is making into the connected home. They
have the Echo devices, they have the Fire TV, they recently acquired Ring, which is a security
doorbell camera. So, when you're looking at companies making inroads into the connected
home, I think Amazon's at the top of the list. It will be interesting to see, now that the cat
is out of the bag, do they continue to update us on the prime number? And if so, how often?
Because obviously, analysts will now be foaming at the mouth trying to get at that data on
a quarterly or even annual basis. But we'll see. I could see Bezos saying, sorry,
psych, that was a one-time thing. That is a conference call that they
just do not give a lot of information on. So, I bet we'll hear them ask that question a lot.
Probably won't get as many answers, but maybe more now than we did before.
When they hit $200 million, that's what we'll hear again.
Am I the only one who thought that number was higher? If you had asked me to guess,
I wouldn't have guessed $100 million. I might have been close.
I will say that our estimates in million-dollar portfolio were at around $100 million.
I mean, that was published. So, it actually took us by surprise that we were so close.
Nice job! Thank you!
Let's move on to Wells Fargo. And Ron, look, $1 billion for Wells Fargo,
I know they've got the money. I know they can pay this fine. But I think that the optics
of this are actually the problem here for them.
I think that's fair. And I think the optics have been bad for quite some time.
The other big number is 570,000 clients that got car insurance but didn't need it.
That's pretty bad. And Buffett's obviously a big shareholder of Wells Fargo and has been
for quite some time. He thinks about culture and leadership in very strong ways. He's maintained
his trust to a certain extent, I think, in Wells Fargo. Obviously, the stock has taken
a hit as a result, and I think it should have. As you mentioned, this $1 billion is not going
to be any big deal. It's 0.4% of the company's market cap, so it can handle that. But it's
more about, A, as a consumer, do you want to be a client of Wells Fargo? And then, as
an investor, do you have a desire to be a shareholder? I think in a lot of cases, the answer is no.
Yeah, I think generally speaking, the answer is no. I think that the one thing
that Wells Fargo has really working in its favor, beyond just leading the mortgage market,
because it's very easy to own that mortgage and then offer all sorts of free banking services
to go with it. It's just that once you get a banking relationship established, it's sticky.
Nobody wants to take the time to get yourself out of it and go open another bank account
and make sure that all of your bills are being paid from the right. It's a hassle. They will,
I think, benefit from that. Probably five years from now, we'll look back and think,
eh, it wasn't that big of a deal after all. But I tend to not like investing in companies
that have to pay fines this size. And honestly, this isn't the problem, this is just a symptom
of what has been clearly a bad culture for a long time.
Well, and it's not the first fine. The first time this happened, when the fake
account story first broke, there was genuine surprise because of Wells Fargo, the reputation
that the bank had. This is now no longer a surprise, this is now a pattern.
Yeah. And what maybe is even more important than the fine is, back in February,
the Federal Reserve passed out a punishment that said, Wells Fargo will not be allowed
to be any bigger than it was at the end of last year until they prove that they've got
their act together. So, as an investor, you've got to keep an eye on that, that you now have
kind of a regulation that is constraining growth on purpose because of how you screwed
up in the past. So, buyer beware. Wells Fargo has been a tremendous
performing investment for Berkshire Hathaway for a long, long time. I will be interested
to see, in the coming years, as Warren and Charlie ride off into the sunset, if that
status doesn't change at one point or another, and they decide to maybe take those gains
and move elsewhere. Well, hopefully, we're going to have
Becky Quick from CNBC on the show next week as our guest, in advance of the Berkshire
Hathaway meeting. I'm assuming that there are going to be more than a couple of questions
that come up at that annual meeting about Wells Fargo. Netflix added nearly 7.5 million
subscribers worldwide. That is just one of the highlights from the first quarter report
that Netflix issued earlier in the week, and shares up about 6%, David.
Yeah, pretty darn rootin' tootin' as far as a quarter goes. And remember, Netflix just
raised prices at the end of last year, and the company grew revenue over 40%. That's
the fastest revenue has grown since the fourth quarter of 2011. So, the company is actually
accelerating its growth as it gets larger, which is an incredible feat.
I don't know.
You're almost speechless.
I'm almost speechless because Netflix continues to do this quarter after quarter to the point
where the only thing I find surprising about Netflix results is the fact that management,
for some reason, continues to feel the need to say, hey, we were surprised by this.
Like, really? You were surprised by your own growth?
I feel like the Quickster debacle gave Reed Hastings a lot. And I think a little
dose of humility is one of the things he took away from it. And it's made him, I think,
a better CEO, and honestly, just more pleasant to listen to. So, when you hear him say,
hey, we were surprised, too, I think there's a little dose of humility there. But, yeah,
it's the standard, right? Internet TV, that's Netflix, and everybody really still is chasing after them.
The biggest question mark with Netflix, I think, clearly remains how much they're spending
on content. Increasingly, they're spending more on marketing. They're spending about
$8 billion on content this year. They're expecting to burn $3 to $4 billion in free cash flow
this year alone. They have $4 billion in net debt. They said they're going to tap the debt
market again. So, the ultimate question here is, at what point do those skyrocketing content
costs plateau? Is it $12 billion? Is it $15 billion? Is it $15 billion? We don't really
know. And I don't know if management honestly knows at this point, either.
And that's kept idiots like me, or maybe I should say value investors like me out
of the stock for years to come. Is it time for me to call, say, uncle and say, I was wrong?
Clearly, the stock is telling me I was completely wrong. But I don't think the final chapter
has been written yet.
Netflix has been a scary one to get behind, though, because of those metrics
David was just talking about. But it makes you wonder. Amazon, really, I think, is similar
in that regard. People have always griped about those profits, or lack thereof. I feel
like you've got to have a price-to-member metric or a price-to-subscriber.
And to go back to something David mentioned about Netflix recently raising prices,
that's one other ripple effect of Amazon sharing this $100 million Prime number, is now people
can look at that and say, OK, well, what happens when they decide to bump up the price of Prime
$10, $20, which absolutely everyone who's a Prime member will pay?
Yeah, they will. They will pay it, Chris. I demand it.
You're just standing up with your wallet out saying, take my money.
Listen, I've said more than one occasion that they could quadruple the price of Prime,
and I'd pay it happily.
Hey, hey, hey, that's you.
The math bears it out, OK?
Speak for yourself here, Buster.
On Friday, shares of Mattel hit their lowest point in more than nine years
after CEO Margot Giorgiotis left the company after just over one year in charge.
And let's be clear, Jason, she was not pushed.
she jumped. That tells me she got there, looked around, and decided this thing might be going to
zero. Yeah, this thing is just the worst. I mean, losing that Disney deal, looking back now,
I mean, that really, I think, was the beginning of the end for Mattel. And it's amazing to think
about this. I mean, this is a company that probably played a role in all of our childhoods
at one point or another. And we're sitting here debating it now, 45, 50 years later. It's just
amazing to think about. But I cannot overstate how much trouble this company is in. And honestly,
they need a deal. They need a deal, and they need it now, because their balance sheet is
becoming a big-time liability. And I think that the dynamics of the toy market are not going to
change back. I mean, that window just continues to get smaller as kids move on to devices and
whatnot at younger ages. Mattel is in a big, big bind here. Well, the man that they named to
take over as CEO. In the past, he's sold a couple of his companies to Disney. And I think him
stepping in as CEO and just the situation that Mattel is in, this really raises the likelihood
that they'll sell out to Hasbro, Disney, some other company. But I think they're looking for
an acquisition at this point. Jason, you mentioned in regards to
Wells Fargo, you don't want to be a shareholder of companies that are getting these types of fines.
in terms of Mattel. I think it's also maybe a corollary of that is, if you've got four
CEOs in four years, you might have a problem. That's a good observation.
Coming up, we've got three stocks and three new flavors of M&Ms. You decide which one
you like better. Stay right here. This is Motley Fool Money.
Thanks to Bloom for supporting this week's episode of Motley Fool Money. Do you have
a 401k? Do you remember how frustrating it was deciding what to invest in without any
professional help? Well, now there's a better way to grow your 401k. That's with Bloom. Bloom
with three O's. Bloom is a simple, smart, and affordable way to grow your 401k. Go online to
bloom401k.com and simply connect your existing 401k plan in a few easy steps. Then sit back
and relax while Bloom performs an unbiased analysis of the funds in your account and
chooses the best mix to meet your goals while minimizing hidden investment fees. Getting your
investments right does not have to be hard, painful, or time-consuming. Bloom only takes
five minutes, and then your retirement is set until you cancel. And they link to your existing
401k, so you don't have to move your money. Bloom is so simple. Here's the thing. The hardest thing
about Bloom is remembering that there are three O's in the name Bloom. So go to bloom401k.com
slash fool and enter the promo code fool for your first month free and see the difference
that Bloom could make in your retirement. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Chris Hill
here in studio with Jason Moser, David Kretzmann, and Ron Gross. You can catch Motley Fool Money
every weekend on radio stations across America, and I'm happy to welcome a brand-new affiliate
in Spokane, Washington, KXLY-NFM100.7. Hello, Spokane! Intuitive Surgical increased sales
of its da Vinci robotic surgical system in the first quarter, and consequently, shares
of Intuitive Surgical increased about 7% this week, David.
It's all about this razor and blade model. Their total revenue this quarter grew 25%.
They sold 185 of those Da Vinci surgical systems, which is up from 133 a year ago.
The number of procedures performed on those systems increased 15%, and recurring revenue
from instruments, accessories, and services now makes up 73% of Intuitive Surgical's overall
revenue. The company's basically printing cash at this point. They're generating about a billion
dollars in free cash flow annually. They have no debt and $2.5 billion in cash on the balance
sheet. So, very strong business model. And they're trying to expand their systems to
cover more different types of surgeries, just increase adoption of those systems in general.
So, probably still a lot of growth to come.
We should relabel this show, Stocks That Ron Missed.
I'm just thinking about accessories on a robotic surgical system, and all I can think is,
like, maybe they bedazzle it, they just add a little bling or something like that.
Sure, yeah, little add-ons.
Make it look a little better.
Lower corporate taxes are helping a lot of companies, but Philip Morris International
does not appear to be one of them this week. Shares of Philip Morris falling more than
15% after first quarter revenue came in lower than expected. What's going on, Ron?
Well, obviously, a secular decline in cigarettes is part of the problem, but this
was actually worse than expected. A 5.3% decline for the quarter in cigarette shipment volume
with Japan, Russia, and Saudi Arabia actually being the culprits for the most part. Perhaps
An even worse situation, though, is the new technologies that are coming out, which companies
including Philip Morris are spending billions and billions on to replace cigarettes. Their
IQOS device growth has significantly slowed. It was gangbusters in Japan, which was seen
really as a bellwether for how this perhaps could take off. Growth is slowing, so that
causes investors to be quite worried. If your main product is slowing and your thoughts
for the future has slowed in growth as well. Stocks sold off pretty severely, pretty much
the worst since they split from Altria back in 2008. So, we're going to have to see these
billions of dollars pay off, otherwise these stocks are going to continue to be under pressure.
I feel like this vaping thing is just quickly becoming such a bad move. I mean,
because it seems like it's worse for you than smoking. And man, say what you will about
cigarettes, but I don't recall those things exploding in your mouth. The vaping things
can and people are getting this popcorn lung. It's not good.
Whatever Skechers shared in its first quarter report was overwhelmed by the company's
guidance for what's coming in the second quarter. Shares of the sneaker company falling 30%
on Friday. 30%, David? How bad was this guidance?
It hurts. For this latest quarter, revenue grew 17%, operating income increased
20%. Their global same-store sales actually grew 9.5%. And believe it or not, Skechers
now has over 2,600 stores worldwide, and they're opening another 450 or so this year. So, the
company is growing quickly. But like you said, Chris, the guidance for this upcoming quarter
was weak. They're just guiding for 4% to 6% revenue growth, earnings to be flat or up
13%. So, management is saying that their guidance for the year as a whole hasn't changed. They're
saying it's just an issue of timing of distribution and orders moving from the second quarter
to the third quarter, but the company's gone through this in the past, so I think the market's
a little skeptical. Do you feel like opening more stores
is the answer? I mean, in all seriousness, I feel like more and more, you can buy your
shoes online, obviously, have them shipped to you for free. I kind of look at J.P. Morgan
as another company where I guess they're going to be opening more branches here locally,
which to me, is the answer more banking centers? I don't think so.
Well, I go back to something that Ron said earlier this morning when we were
planning this week's show. Look, I get that guidance wasn't great, and I get that the
stock is selling off. If the stock is selling off 30%, I want to see that the CEO has been
arrested or something like that. Unless a stock is irrationally exuberantly
priced, no quarterly report, unless there's fraud involved or some major thing, should
wipe away a third of a company's value. I haven't delved into this, but sometimes those
types of sell-offs create opportunities for patient, longer-term investors?
Yeah, I think longer-term this could be an opportunity. Skechers has, in general,
been a well-run company. You have Robert Greenberg at the helm. He's been head of this company for
25 years or so. He owns the majority of the company. The company's still producing strong
free cash flow, has over $600 million in cash, no debt. So, the company's okay. They'll probably
be buying back a lot of stock this quarter with the stock lower, but it's going to be volatile,
That's for sure.
Mars Chocolate is bringing back its M&M's limited edition voting campaign, asking consumers to vote for a new flavor.
Kind of seems like a page out of the Mondelez Oreos playbook.
Here are your options, guys.
Crunchy mint, crunchy raspberry, or crunchy espresso?
Apparently, they figured out that people like crunch in their M&M's.
I don't know.
I love M&M's.
I don't think I'm voting for any of these, Ron.
Yuck.
But mint is okay.
But definitely not raspberry.
Jason?
I think I'd go espresso, but that was the first thing that came to mind was Oreos.
Just don't go down that rabbit hole, guys.
I'd go with espresso.
Let's go to our man behind the glass, Steve Broido.
Steve, any one of these three you want to vote for?
Because the winner is going to be rolled out into sort of a longer campaign.
I'm going strong to the hoop with mint.
Really?
Mint all the way.
Can we all agree raspberry is just a bad move altogether?
Absolutely.
Mix it.
All right, guys, we'll see you a little bit later in the show.
Coming up, we're going to talk Disney, ESPN, and the future of sports media with best-selling
author Jim Miller. Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
welcome back to motley fool money i'm chris hill james andrew miller has written best-selling
books about hollywood saturday night live and the united states senate he's also the creator
of Origins, a podcast that explores the beginnings of creative endeavors. Season one focused on HBO's
hit comedy, Curb Your Enthusiasm. But Miller is probably best known for writing the best-selling
book, Those Guys Have All the Fun, Inside the World of ESPN. For a long time, ESPN was the goose
laying golden eggs for its parent, the Walt Disney Company. But as the network plows money into an
expensive new morning show as well as its brand new streaming app, ESPN is at a bit of a crossroads.
Earlier this week, I sat down with Jim at his hotel in Washington, D.C., and I asked him how I,
as well as all other Disney shareholders, should feel about James Pataro, the new guy in charge of
ESPN. You should feel like there's much stronger connection between Bristol, Connecticut, ESPN's
headquarters and burbank john skipper uh i think he was a loyal employee to bob eiger but i think
he was a bit of a rebel i think there were certain things that skipper um disagreed with skipper and
eiger kind of didn't agree on and i think the biggest one there is the nfl um i don't believe
that ESPN has a 15.3 billion dollar deal with the with the NFL that's coming up in a couple years
I I believe I'm on terra firma suggesting that Skipper wouldn't have just blindly said okay
let's do that again ESPN now is the fourth worst schedule right I mean when we were growing up
every single team in the NFL had three great stars at least two or three like great players
marketable players you know there's just not enough great product at the nfl and at the same
time that there's not enough great product they've expanded it so thursday night football which
i think is one of the worst inventions since liquid prel i i mean it is just it is the epitome
of greed and the nfl owners should be ashamed of themselves because not only is that is a
deleterious to the schedule but the recovery time for the players the burgeoning rate of injuries
I mean, there's just it's a big bowl of wrong, but at the same time they've done it and they've gotten away with it
And there's Fox paying enormous amount some money for it
So I think what ESPN saying is wait we got Monday Night Football
We're paying 2 billion a year technically 1.9 plus 100 million for the wild card when they get it
Like and we got the fourth worst schedule and that's for like 17 weeks of programming
Give me that 1.9 and I'll do something else for 17 weeks
I may not get exactly the number, but here's the real key which
When I I actually not to brag but I broke it in a story for Hollywood Reporter ESPN is now has
Distribution agreements that are wholly independent of them having the NFL
so it used to be in
You know in the late 90s and 2000s that they were able to garner those monthly subscription rates because they had the NFL
now they can actually get that money without having the NFL now that's not to say that certain
cable companies wouldn't grab pitchforks and start protesting but in terms of the actual language
that's not there anymore that's a big big signal to them that they have you know margin for error
and they can be a little bit more creative so to get back to your question I'm sorry to be
long-winded about this. Patara is not going to take on Iger about that like the way Skipper would
have. In terms of the rights that sports have been able to command from television networks,
do you see that continuing to rise the way that it has? Because people have talked about and
written about the sports media rights bubble, and it still hasn't popped yet. But at some point,
some network is just going to completely pass.
It's one of the great paradoxes, isn't it, Chris?
Because it would be like me saying when Amazon hit $100 a share.
Now, this thing's got to, I mean, this thing is just not working.
How can this go any higher?
It's $100 a share, and they're not making any profit.
And, you know, I, of course, listened to that
and didn't buy any Amazon for my kid's college fund.
Thank you very much.
But the truth is there is this weird disconnect.
which is that we keep on lamenting and the networks completely continue to
lament the rising acquisition costs but there it is I mean look at the last NBA
deal it's enough to make you a Bolshevik how how was ESPN able to pay that money
and Turner but at the same time look at the NBA numbers and not to mention the
fact that look ESPN produces as eight thousand seven hundred sixty hours a
year to produce so at some point something like baseball's tonnage it's
just great because you just like four games a week and three games a week and
whatever it's like you you just have these live events which further
distinguish yourself in the marketplace they've spent over 20 billion dollars on
college football and like you know in less than a decade I mean there's big
That Big Ten deal was crazy.
And Fox did too.
And Turner spent a ton of money.
And what CBS spent on NCAA and Pac-12 and everything else.
So everybody says it's crazy, but at the same time,
what was that joke at the end of Annie Hall that his cousin thinks he's a chicken
and everybody says it's crazy, right?
Yeah, but we need the eggs.
We need the eggs.
And so the question becomes,
I think the end of your question is kind of provocative,
it, which is, is there going to be a network that's going to just say no Moss? And I think
to a certain degree, CBS and NBC have decided that they're not going to just go blindly for
everything that they can't. Fox seems more willing to do that. Although I think their
debt threshold is changing. But as long as that happens, as long as you have all these bidders,
and by the way, you have now Silicon Valley coming in. Facebook's starting to do it. Amazon
paid for Thursday night football.
So in a way, it doesn't even matter
just what the four or five competitors are saying.
You got these other people that are driving the price up.
So I'm not sure it stops.
I'm curious, since you mentioned Bob Iger,
as you and I are sitting here,
earlier this week, Netflix reported their earnings,
their stock continues to rise.
and now disney's market cap is somewhere in the neighborhood of 150 billion and netflix
has in relatively short order i haven't completely caught up to them but their market cap is around
130 billion to what extent if any do you think that matters to bob eiger to what extent of any
Do you think he's looking at Netflix and watching them creep up and views them as not just a threat, but maybe a primary threat?
Well, I don't think he's doing it from an ego point of view, but I do think he has fully appreciated what streaming means to the audience.
I think it's something it means to the customers.
He wants to be in that business.
he is trying to do things to move to that kind of world he understands that it's here to stay
i think some of his critics may have said why didn't you see that earlier but i think in fairness
to bob he's arguably one of the great media executives of the past quarter century what
he's been able to do since eisner left so no one can bat a thousand no one can anticipate
everything but i think that he isn't going to just sit around with his arms folded and let netflix
write off into the future particularly given what we all know which is that kind of formula
that kind of recipe in the marketplace is something that the customers they've they've
already decided they're good with it they like it it's comfortable i was on the treadmill this
morning and on the menu in front of me um there was an option for netflix it's not just a it's not
just a it's not just a tv you know where you you have a little button on your treadmill and you
you raise the channel you can go lower there was netflix i mean that's the way it is seeped into
our into the fabric of our daily life and the way that people are just used to binging and you know
they they love having it there look they raised their prices like a dollar a month the other
nobody noticed nobody's like are you kidding me who cares so you know i don't know if by the way
i don't know if eiger sits around fretting about market cap so much because as you know much better
than i in the marketplace the stock market there are some crazy market cap stories that
also never go wait why didn't i short that the market cap was 300 million you know it's like
I mean, that's part of the legacy of the late 90s, right, and the crash around 2000.
So I'm not sure if he pays that much attention to that, but he does pay attention to the business model.
Pretty soon the Supreme Court's going to issue a ruling on sports betting.
If you're ESPN or Fox Sports, what are you hoping for?
What are you preparing for?
It's like renting a tux, and you're looking at your closet,
it and you got the tux ready you got the shirt pressed and you're like am i going to wear it or
not i mean there are certain companies that are you know already have it on and they're like tying
their bow tie just to push the metaphor a little bit more i think that espn has had a somewhat
tortured relationship with gambling you know it used to be that you couldn't even mention spreads
then they started mentioning spreads scott van pelt himself was uh on his show was very adept
at it every once in a while i love it's so delicious where al michaels late in the fourth
quarter of a monday night football game there'll be a field goal this yeah a couple people were
interested in that a couple people like because you saw the spread dissipating um i think it's
probably coming i mean not to be able to i'm not trying to predict the spring court but i think
that given what's happening in the rest of the world and that's a topic that where i think there
is some knowledge that we gain from the rest of the world and how they've been able to engineer
hear this and put some safeguards on that are desperately needed. Um, you know, I think that
a lot of companies now are, are preparing for it and, uh, it's going to be like the wild,
wild West when it happens, man. There are plenty of people and I am one of them who,
um, at the end of the day, done with work, you know, kids are in bed, that sort of thing,
want to relax. Um, I'll listen to one of your podcasts or flip through one of your books.
what do you what do you do for fun what do you do to just kick back and relax
i'm trying to learn how to do that um i'll admit are you're not are you one of those people who
only needs four hours of sleep a night i i think that um i'm not one of those people who only needs
four hours of sleep a night i'm one of those people who gets only four hours of sleep i probably
um i probably should it's one of my goals to learn how to sleep more and learn how to unwind
um i have a tendency to you know work pretty late and um that's that's a that's a problem
i don't my biggest problem is i used to be able to read a lot um just stuff that i want to read
and um i don't get as much time to do that um as as i'd like or as i used to my um youngest
child is unfortunately going off to college and I've officially started the
mourning period and I'm not looking forward to it I would say the only silver
lining and a big dark cloud to be selfish is that you know I have a
tendency to put my children's needs above my own and I my schedule is
revolves around them so now with them out of the house no I you know I really
want to be a smart architect about time management in a different way. But I love the idea, this
concept of relaxation, Chris. It's a very interesting concept. I think I want to get into
that. You can check out Origins wherever you get your podcasts. And if you want to hear more from
Jim Miller, good news. We took the entire conversation I had with Jim and published it
as a bonus episode in our Market Foolery podcast feed. So when you're done listening to Motley
Full Money, you can head over to MarketFoolery and hear Jim's thoughts on Saturday Night Live,
including the one person that he believes could follow in Lorne Michaels' footsteps.
But don't go just yet. Coming up, we'll give you a few stocks you can put on your watch list.
Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about,
and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against,
so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.
Chris Hill here in the studio once again with Jason Moser, David Kretzmann, and Ron Gross.
Our email address is radioatfool.com.
Question from Dimitri, who asks,
One company that's come across my radar that intrigues me is a company called Boston Omaha.
It's tiny compared to Berkshire Hathaway, and while it's been public for less than a year,
it has already doubled in price. One of Warren Buffett's grand-nephews is one of its CEOs,
and the company seems to follow the Berkshire model pretty closely. Has Boston Omaha come
across your radar at all? I wanted to get your take before I take the plunge. Ron, I'll be honest,
I've never heard of Boston Omaha before. But it does seem like it may fall into the
the, quote-unquote, Baby Berkshire category.
Yeah, you've got to be careful with that whole Baby Berkshire thing,
because sometimes people think any conglomerate
can fall under the category of Baby Berkshire.
But I think it's more of a cultural title
than it is a business model one,
where you have to kind of think like Warren Buffett,
or you have to think like Tom Gaynor over at Markel.
It's not just about a diverse set of businesses.
Yeah, I think I agree with Ron.
You want to be careful here,
because people have been saying similar things
about Sardar Beglari of Beglari Holdings.
Not me.
That stock has gone nowhere over the past five years.
I think people are also saying similar things about Eddie Lampert
when he took the helmet Sears.
I don't think that's gone so well.
I'll have to check in on that story.
But you want to like the company for the sake of the company
and not just the aspirations of following one key person or another.
I was reading through the Markel shareholder letter recently,
and one of the things I love about those guys,
they constantly refer to it as, quote, your company.
I mean, they're talking about your company.
They really take a lot of pride in them. I don't know if we were helpful to Dimitri,
but in the broader skew of things. What was the company we were talking about?
Boston-Omaha. Boston Red Sox? Yeah, I love them!
I mean, they're great. Off to a hot start.
They are. Before we get to the stocks on our radar,
and of course, our man on the other side of the glass, Steve Broido, is going to hit you
guys with a question. Also, got to give a shout-out to the other guys on the other side
of the glass this week. Clay Deckard and Ash Pomeroy visiting us.
Love it when we have visitors.
Thanks so much for visiting and hanging out with us this week, guys.
All right, Ron Gross, what's on your radar this week?
Steve, I'm going to go with an oldie but a goodie.
It's Home Depot, ticker symbol HD.
Have you heard of it?
I have.
I have indeed.
Obviously, the leader in the home improvement industry.
Sorry, Lowe's.
Huge scale.
Gives it a great competitive advantage.
Returns on capital increased over each of the past five years, currently at 34%.
Paid a dividend for 124 consecutive quarters.
Increased that dividend for the last nine years.
Just raised at 16%, 2.3% yield. Guidance is strong. Stock is very reasonably priced for a
company that puts up results like Home Depot does. Steve, question about Home Depot? What do you
think of their HDX-branded products? I have not partaken of them myself,
but I believe they are selling through very nicely. Jason Moser, what's on your radar this week?
I'm going to go with a twofer, actually, because earnings season is in full swing here next week.
We have Facebook, ticker FB, and Twitter, ticker TWTR, earnings coming out on the same day,
Wednesday, April 25th. So, you get Twitter in the morning, Facebook in the afternoon. It's just
very interesting to see how the narratives have changed on these two companies over the past year.
Facebook, obviously, in crisis mode here with the whole data concern. I mean, let's be clear,
man, everybody's going to keep lobbing up pictures of their sandwich that they just ate. I think
they're going to be all right. But really, Twitter has been pretty fascinating. A couple of upgrades
this week. And I think they've been along the lines of the message we've been communicating
in Million Dollar Portfolio. And this is a very powerful network that isn't going to get
disrupted anytime soon. So, I think Jack Dorsey has done a good job of really sort of patiently
building out a business here that's starting to perform. Steve, question about either Facebook
or Twitter. What is the likelihood that Facebook buys Twitter? I think that ship has sailed.
Facebook tried to buy Twitter many, many moons ago before Twitter went public. I think at this
point, Facebook would have a very difficult time convincing regulators that that would
be in the best interest of people.
David Kretzmann, what are you looking at this week?
Well, JMO cheated a little bit there. My stock is Facebook, ticker FB. So, Steve, I hope
you have some more questions on Facebook. But I agree with JMO. I think the pessimism
with any potential regulatory pushback is already priced in. Facebook is growing faster
and more profitably than Alphabet, but trading at a lower valuation compared to Alphabet.
But the company is printing cash, about $17 billion in free cash flow a year and counting,
almost $42 billion in net cash.
I think the company is going to be fine.
Any new regulations or a slap on the wrist, I don't think it's going to change the powerful
business model that they have.
Steve?
Given what we've heard in the news recently with Facebook, do you have any concerns about
your privacy in anything you post on Facebook?
I was actually one of the 87 million or so users that was impacted by this Cambridge
Analytica scandal, I guess.
But, no, I'm not personally concerned.
I think if you're online, you should understand that that data is not yours necessarily.
It's going to be shared if you're using a free platform.
So I'm okay with it.
But I'm a millennial.
I can't believe people know my birth date and that I love pizza.
This is tragic.
Yeah, absolutely.
Steve, you got one you want to add to your watch list?
I think I'm going to go with Home Depot.
Nice.
All right.
Ron Gross, Jason Moser, David Kretzmann.
Guys, thanks so much for being here.
Thanks, Chris.
That's going to do it for this week's edition of Motley Fool Money.
Our producer is Matt Greer.
Our engineer is Steve Broido.
I'm Chris Hill.
Thanks for listening.
We'll see you next week.
