Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing - Streaming Wars Heat Up and 1 Stock That Could Define the Next Decade
Episode Date: January 21, 2022Netflix shares fall more than 20% as increasing competition from Disney, Apple, and HBO Max (among others) cut into subscriber growth. Peloton's stock fell 25% on Thursday on reports of halted product...ion and potential layoffs. United and American Airlines express optimism about increased travel in the spring and summer. And for the second quarter in a row Procter & Gamble flexes its pricing power muscles. Andy Cross and Ron Gross analyze those stories, Amazon's new clothing store, Winnebago's new EV, and share two stocks on their radar: Restoration Hardware and Intellia Therapeutics. Aaron Bush discusses the shifting landscape in the video game industry, the move to create ecosystems (instead of merely publishing games), and shares why he believes Roblox could be one of the defining consumer companies of the 2020s. Want 15 more stock ideas? They're included in our free Investing Starter Kit. Just click over to www.fool.com/StarterKit to get your copy. Stocks: NFLX, T, DIS, AAPL, MSFT, ATVI, META, PTON, AAL, UAL, PG, RBLX, AMZN, WGO, TSLA, RH, NTLA Host: Chris Hill Guests: Andy Cross, Ron Gross, Aaron Bush Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Nick Sciple. Netflix takes a short-term hit as the streaming wars heat up,
and our guest this week has a stock he believes could be one of the defining companies
of the next decade. All that and a lot more coming up right now.
Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money.
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From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money.
It's the Motley Fool Money radio show. I'm Chris Hill, joined by senior analysts Andy Cross and Ron Gross.
Good to see you as always, gentlemen.
How are you doing, Chris?
We got the latest headlines from Wall Street. We've got a deep dive into the video game
industry. As always, we've got a couple of stocks on our radar, but we begin with Netflix.
Fourth quarter profits and revenue came in higher than expected for the streaming giant,
and they added more than eight million subscribers in the quarter. But that growth is a little
bit lower than it was a year ago, and shares of Netflix fell more than 20% on Friday. Andy,
a few things to get to here, including the fact that Wall Street kind of freaked out over the
fact that Netflix made a reference to competing streaming services in their shareholder letter.
Yeah, Chris, we've been talking about the competitive landscape with streaming
for a while. And clearly, Netflix, they're not there. I mean,
Reed Hastings and Ted Sarandos, they're not idiots, right? So they know the environment.
What really got people, I think, essentially freaked out, and it was a very drastic reaction,
I got to say, was with the guidance, Chris. The quarter was actually pretty good. As you mentioned,
they added almost 8.3 million new paid additions. That was a little bit lighter than the estimate
at 8.5 million. Revenue was up 16%. Global paid memberships, total global paid memberships
at $221.8 million, up almost 9%. Average revenue per member up 7%. They said retention was strong,
churn was down. But on the margin, we didn't quite grow the acquisitions as fast as we would
have liked to based on the large subscriber base. However, Chris, it was the guidance for the first
quarter of this year that really got people, I think, spooked because, like I said, that fourth
quarter, not so bad. Operating margin was actually a little bit better than what they expected to on
the profit line. But it was that guidance, Chris. Looking at the guidance going forward and looking
at the quarter, estimating to add 2.5 million global paid additions for the quarter versus
a 5.8 million add for a forecast. It's below trend compared to 2018 and 2019. Revenue for the quarter
expected to be up around 10% versus 13% estimates. That's the weakest growth since 2012. So, Chris,
when you add it all together, Netflix is really now, I think, not in this hyper growth cycle.
We've seen the COVID period kind of wane its way through a little bit, as they talked about on the
call. And we're starting to see Netflix now in a different environment. And that has really gotten
the markets a little bit concerned with what that might mean for the full year, subscription,
memberships, revenue growth, and then ultimately the profit picture. They will be cash flow
positive this year, or at least they expect to be cashflow positive, which is a good sign,
but clearly not nearly as much growth as they've seen over the last couple of years.
You know, a lot to unpack here. A lot of this boils down to, not just with Netflix,
but a lot of the streaming services, price and content. One reason I never really got behind
Netflix was because I never thought they'd be able to work out the cost of content.
I'm not even sure they have yet, but certainly the stock is up a trillion percent since I passed on
it, so it shows you what I know. But you got to be careful here when you assume you have pricing
power and you act on that. Netflix just raised prices last week. They bumped their standard plan
to $13.99 per month from $13.99 to $15.49. That makes their standard plan more expensive than
HBO Max. You got to be careful here because there's a lot of folks, whether it's Disney+,
Apple TV, Paramount, Peacock. We can keep on going down the list. At some point, people say
the content's not worth it to me. Netflix does have the content still. It's still in high-end
demand. Six of the top most searched globally were on Netflix in 2021, Squid Game among them.
I don't think I've seen any of the top 10 most searched shows. So again, take what I say with
a grain of salt. But the content is good there, but you got to be careful on the pricing side.
Yeah, Andy, with respect to the pricing, it really seems for consumers there are two tiers now.
You've got HBO Max and Netflix around $15 a month. You've got Apple, Peacock, Disney+,
they're all single digits, less than $10 a month. Well, let's not forget, this is Netflix's game,
Squid Game, game, get it, how I did there, guys. So this is all Netflix does. I mean,
Amazon Prime, Disney+, even HBO Max, they have multiple layers to their businesses. This is all
Netflix does, and it's one reason why I think they've been able to spend that amount of capital
on their acquisition, acquiring content, and so much on content, including now gaming, Chris.
They started their little tiny gaming platform in November. But if you think about Squid Game,
1.65 billion hours within the first four weeks. Bridgerton, 625 million hours. Witcher,
484 million hours. Red Notice, 363 million hours. So, as Ron mentioned, they have the content,
they spend it. I think they've been very effective with it. I think they do have that little pricing
power, Chris, you do mention. It is Netflix and HBO Max are kind of there, and it remains to be
seeing whether members and subscribers will continue to pay up for it. But at least the
churn number continues to be very impressive. And I think that's a very good sticking point
for investors to lock onto as they think about what the growth prospects, and importantly,
what the profit and cash flow prospects for Netflix look like over the next year or so.
I think it's also interesting to note that a lot of Netflix's growth seems to be
now concentrated overseas in Asia and Europe, with America and Canada being somewhat more of
a mature market. But coming up on the outside is Disney, which has recently formed a new
international content group to expand its pipeline of content across international markets. They're
looking to double the number of countries where Disney Plus is available by fiscal 2023.
they've already invested in creation of content 340 titles already in various stages of development
so um as we started this conversation competition is is going to be a big part of netflix's future
yeah and that line uh that they had in in the release in the call while while this added
competition may be affecting our marginal growth sum we continue to grow in every country and
region in which these new streaming alternatives have launched now now ron to your point there
there's global competition. 90% of the new additions come from outside the U.S. and Canada
for Netflix. And that marginal growth, Chris, I think is what many of us are locking onto,
because that could be the difference really on the profit curve and the expectation.
But also, this was a big analyst kind of game. This was a big miss from them. Lots of conversations
about how they missed this much. And when you look at the history of Netflix, yes, in various
points. They have missed along their estimates this amount in the past year or so, been very
volatile with all the COVID announcements. But over time, they can consistently grow and return
and provide that content and the experience. And that experience is very valuable for the
members, I think, as a winning strategy for Netflix going forward. Microsoft is making
its biggest acquisition ever, buying Activision Blizzard for just under $70 billion in cash,
assuming regulators don't derail the deal. It is expected to close next year and signals,
Ron, among other things, Microsoft's ambitions, both for gaming and the metaverse.
For sure. Now, I will fully admit that I didn't get the 2016 LinkedIn acquisition. I'm not even
sure I still get it. But this one, I get. This one, I think, makes good sense. $69 billion all
cash deal. Activision had been down about 40% from its 52-week high as it dealt with sexual
harassment and misconduct allegations. Microsoft clearly taking advantage of that price weakness
to, as you said, make its largest acquisition ever. CEO Bobby Kotick, who has been under pressure to
resign, will remain CEO for the time being, but I wouldn't be surprised if that didn't last much
longer after the deal closes. Activision as a company will report to Microsoft Xbox head
Phil Spencer. Interestingly, shares are trading well below the $95 acquisition price due to,
as you mentioned, antitrust concerns. I do predict this deal will ultimately go through, though.
Interesting to note, Microsoft's current fortunes, I say current, over the last several years have
really been tied to its B2B business. It's business to business, business. Specifically,
its transformation under Satya Nadella into a cloud company. But it's also made investments
in its consumer Xbox gaming business, which is a smaller business as when you look at the whole
of their revenue. They bought Minecraft Maker in 2014, the maker of Minecraft. They bought the
parent company of Doom and Fallout in 2021. This acquisition will be a big help to Microsoft's
plan to turn its Game Pass subscription service into what they're going to call the Netflix of
gaming or what analysts are calling the Netflix of gaming. Once the acquisition closes, Microsoft
said it will be the third largest game company by sales with 30 game studios. It'll include
powerhouse franchises like Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, and my, I guess, favorite, Candy Crush.
I never understood that one either, to be honest. But listen, you want to talk about big battles,
big competition out there. This acquisition is also a shot across the bow to Facebook
as the metaverse, which is currently focused largely on gaming, at least right now,
that really will start to take shape. This is an interesting move from that perspective.
of shares of Sony also weak as the acquisition is seen as a potential threat to its PlayStation
business. Lastly, I'll say 15% upside to the acquisition price with the main risk being
the Justice Department kills the deal. I personally would take those odds. 15% upside looks good
to me. Andy, I don't think Ron was alone in
2016 at scratching his head on Microsoft buying LinkedIn for $26 billion, but Nadella and
his team made that work. And that business is thriving underneath Microsoft. You have to like
the prospects for Microsoft's gaming division over the next five, 10 years. Well, I think what's
really interesting is because gaming is becoming full on cloud. So it's really pushing to the cloud
and Ron kicked it off and teed it up very well with Satya Nadella's and his team's move to the
cloud and the importance of the cloud. Even LinkedIn, that acquisition, that is very cloud
base when you just think about distributed intelligence across various different data
points that they have and collecting more and more data. So I think the cloud initiative,
this does really tie into that. Yes, there certainly will be antitrust concerns, and they're
going to maybe have as much as up to 15% of the total market, as Ron alluded to and talked about
when you look at Microsoft's Xbox, the Game Pass subscription service, they're tying together.
So, the cloud push, I think, this continues to strengthen Microsoft's goal to really be a distributed leader in cloud computing in lots of different ways beyond just B2B.
On Thursday, shares of Peloton fell 25% on reports the company was halting production of its bikes and treadmills due to lack of demand.
The stock regained some of that loss on Friday after Peloton CEO John Foley said the company is looking to right-size production levels.
and consider layoffs. Ron, you have to think that between the prospect of layoffs and the
way this stock has fallen over the past six months, morale at Peloton has got to be low.
Absolutely. This started as a leaked memo and supposedly they have found out who
the leaker is and they're taking action there. But the company was forced to come out and address
what were really rumors up until they came out to talk about the second quarter
and the business in general. Listen, the business pulled forward so much demand as a result of the
pandemic. And it's a miss from their perspective on how much that was going to decline once the
pandemic started to fade. So yes, I do believe that a lot of the information released in the
memo is likely to happen. They're going to temporarily halt production, both the bikes
and the treadmill. They do probably have thousands of cycles and treadmills sitting in warehouses
because the demand just isn't there. Second quarter results, they were able to reiterate
some guidance to calm the markets down. That's why I think we see a little bit of rebound.
But they said they don't expect to be EBITDA positive until fiscal 2023.
I think layoffs are on the table. Peloton is working with McKinsey & Company to look for
opportunities to cut costs. Again, those could include layoffs, store closures, and some pulling
back. Price is a big aspect here. Those bikes are pretty expensive. The subscription monthly cost is
pretty expensive. Peloton has some work to do to right-size this business. After the break,
we've got the latest on airlines, consumer goods, and more. Stay right here. You're listening to
Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Chris Hill here with Andy Cross and Ron
Gross. Two major airlines out with fourth quarter results this week, American and United Airlines,
both wrapping up their fiscal years with a loss and shares of both down this week. Though, Andy,
United CEO Scott Kirby says he is optimistic about the spring and summer. And I know airlines
These historically have not been the greatest investments, but when you think about how
they tie into so many different industries like travel, hotels, restaurants, I really
hope Kirby's right. Both United and American are fairly
optimistic about what they're seeing. They're starting to see their capacity of course continues
to not be where it is. For United specifically, capacity was down 23% versus the fourth quarter
of 2019. They compare against 2019 because 2020 was all wacky with COVID. Operating revenues down
25%. Available seat miles down 3%, so a little bit better. Costs continue to increase. That was
up 11% on the seat mile basis versus 2019. Cargo for both companies continues to be a big driver
and a big win. The cargo for United is now 10% of the revenues, up from 3% in 2019, so very
impressive. But like you said, the bookings and cancellation, Kirby said, starting to return back
to normal. Biz demand still not so great, but improving. They expect capacity to be down only
16% to 18%. Operating revenue to be down only 20% to 25% in the first quarter and available seat
miles to be attractive too. So they expect to end 2022 with the available seat miles minus the fuel
cost to be about at the run rate of 2019. You are seeing this optimism from United Airlines.
You're seeing the new CEO at American Airlines, Robert Isom, is coming in, stepping over,
taking over in March from Doug Parker. That's the largest airline they have in the world.
Their cargo revenues were up attractive as well, now 30% higher than the previous quarterly record.
Capacity was down only 13%. Leisure travel is approaching 100% recovery. Both these companies
are starting to see the winds of the COVID challenges starting to dissipate, and they're
starting to see the travel come back. Business travel continues to be the one that's still
uncertain, but there's some glimmer of hopes in the forecast here. Shares of Procter & Gamble up
this week after second quarter profits and revenue came in higher than expected. More noteworthy than
the results is the fact that for the second quarter in the row, P&G is raising prices
across a range of items from personal healthcare products to Tide detergent. Ron, we talk about
pricing power and look, this is a staples company. You don't automatically assume they
have it, but they're flexing it. Yeah, you nailed it, Chris. That's
the story here. The stock's trading basically at its all-time high, strong business and
pricing power, allowing it to deal with higher costs across the board that have really been
taking a whack at margins and will continue to, but at least their ability to raise prices
mitigates that. For the quarter, sales up 6%, driven by a 3% increase in shipment volumes,
but 3% increase due to pricing. Again, that helped offset commodity and freight increases.
A CEO said the company has announced price increases in all of its product categories.
effective February 28th, the company will increase prices on the balance of its fabric care portfolio,
including Tide, Gain, Downy, Bounce, all your favorites. So again, they have the ability to
raise prices. It'll remain to be seen if people turn to alternatives once those pricing hikes
kick in, but I have a feeling they're going to make it through this. For the quarter, their
healthcare segment was the strongest with an 8% sales increase. Beauty came in the weakest with
a 2% increase. They raised their revenue outlook for fiscal 22, but they only confirmed their
earnings guidance of a 3% to 6% increase. That's because the guidance included $2.8 billion of
after-tax headwinds due to these higher costs. But the company is doing what they need to do,
and it remains a strong consumer goods company. All right, guys, we'll see you a little bit later
in the show. Up next, Aaron Bush weighs in on the ripple effects in the video game industry
after Microsoft's big deal, as well as a couple of smaller companies investors should keep their
eyes on. Stay right here. This is Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to
Motley Fool money. I'm Chris Hill. Joining me is Aaron Bush, advisor here at The Motley Fool.
Thanks for being here. Aaron Bush
Thanks for having me, Chris. Chris Hill
I don't know anyone who studies the video game industry like you do. Earlier in the show,
we had talked about Microsoft buying Activision Blizzard. What does this do to the industry
landscape? There's been talk this week of smaller players in the industry, independent game
creators, if you're one of them, are you excited by the growth prospects for the entire industry?
Are you terrified by the behemoth that is Microsoft, or is it something in between?
Yeah, you're definitely thinking hard about what it means for yourself. But let's zoom out for a
moment really quickly. So 2022 was really destined to accelerate the video game industry's consolidation
that we saw pick up and break records last year. A couple of weeks ago, Take-Two acquired Zynga
for about $12 billion. That was the largest video game acquisition ever. And Microsoft
announcing the acquisition of Activision Blizzard for about $70 billion just immediately shatters
that record and hyper-accelerates consolidation. And there are a couple big picture reasons why
that acceleration of consolidation is happening that point toward how deals like this one are
changing the industry landscape and are making all of the companies figure out their place and
its future. So first, at a high level, we're seeing the increasing dominance of ecosystems.
So basically, instead of game publishers like Activision or EA being the top dogs like they
were over the past couple of decades, the big players going forward really are those who own
multiple pieces of the value chain in one place. They're owning the hardware, the storefronts,
the developer tools, the cloud infrastructure, lots of content, et cetera. So when it comes to
Activision and Microsoft. Activision is really helping Xbox bolster a key component of its
broader ecosystem that's going to be harder for others to compete against unless they also bolster
theirs. The second, bigger and more centralized ecosystems lead to the emergence of new business
models, namely subscriptions. And like we've seen in video, where there's a flywheel between
investing in content and scaling subscribers, I think we're going to see a similar trend
happen in gaming. And so when a company like Xbox with its Game Pass subscription or PlayStation
is able to bring loads of IP under a single subscription or even a couple of tiers of
subscriptions, it immediately becomes more competitive and that competition really drives
even more heightened consolidation. And this is something that the big platforms can do much more
successfully than independent publishers, which have much smaller libraries. So between emerging
multi-pronged ecosystems and shifting business models that lend themselves to consolidation,
a deal like Microsoft buying Activision makes sense, and it's a pretty huge deal for the
industry. I really think it's a shot heard around the world that these ecosystems are
stepping up in a huge way and that consolidation is going to accelerate. If I'm an independent
creator or a relatively small business, I'm not necessarily scared. There are still many ways to
and many ways to sell games. But at minimum, I'd be figuring out how to better interface with these
increasingly giant ecosystems, and perhaps even be thinking about how my business would get
consolidated into a larger player as well. So, we almost definitely won't see a deal surpass
this one. This one was massive, and very, very few gaming companies are even this big.
But we definitely will see increased consolidation in the console PC realm, but also in mobile too.
If it's a shot heard around the world in video gaming, it's also seen as Microsoft
increasing their shot at owning a corner of the metaverse, for lack of a better term.
How soon do you see gaming fitting into the metaverse? I think anyone who
really thinks about it, there are obvious applications there. Is that going to be
sort of the first significant business industry within the metaverse?
Well, I think the metaverse is still very much a buzzword that if you put someone like Mark
Zuckerberg and Satya Nadella in the same room, they're probably not going to agree on what it
means or what it's supposed to be. So I think we have to keep that in mind. But really, when I
think about the metaverse, it really is about an evolution of a more immersive internet. And
you know, based on that oversimplified definition, gaming has been that for a long time. And as it's
grown and become more complex and more users are participating in these worlds, it certainly
fits the bill and being a component of what the metaverse will entail. Gaming is not the metaverse,
but I think it's going to be a subsection of it. And when it comes to where a lot of the innovation
is going to be, improving technology, testing new business models. I do think that gaming is going
to be a place where that happens. Whether or not Microsoft and Xbox are really going to be
pioneers for what the future of the so-called metaverse is going to be, that's really to be
seen. I think it's just going to be something that the entire world, all of these companies
together push forward together. And it's not going to be owned by a single company or a handful
of companies, but it certainly is an exciting trend. All right, let's move away from Microsoft
for a minute. What's a business in the gaming industry that particularly excites you at the
moment and why? Yeah, so I am regularly impressed with Roblox, ticker RBLX, which is a user-generated
content platform that has scaled tremendously over the past couple of years. And I think that
Roblox could be one of the defining consumer companies of the 2020s. So Roblox has really
taken off with kids first and foremost, but I'm incredibly impressed with how the company has
maintained its top dog status, how we've seen tremendous growth in developer interests on the
platform, how it's been working to age up the platform and expand around the world, how it's
been involving big brands, and how it's heavily reinvesting to improve its platform. There are
other UGC platforms out there, other virtual worlds out there, but I think that people
underestimate how much of a lead Roblox has. Roblox's scale allows it to reinvest in both
creators and R&D in a way that other smaller contenders simply can't match. And as these
reinvestments build, I think that the lead over others is also going to compound. So I'm really
excited to see where a company like Roblox is five to 10 years from now. I imagine it's going
to be both much more important as a platform and its effect on culture in the world than it is
today. And if it can pull that off, it's almost definitely going to be a much larger business too.
Last thing, and then I'll let you go. And this can be a CEO, this could be a game developer,
a trend, a company. What is something in the industry right now that you think is not really
getting as much attention as it probably deserves. As you indicated, you look at the
deals earlier this month, that's taking up a lot of the oxygen. What's something that
should be getting more attention? I have my eye on the emergence of
blockchain games. At their core, these games are pioneering a movement where players actually own
the assets in the game that they play with. Sometimes these games have a native cryptocurrency
CO2 that facilitates a more open in-game economy than traditional games do. For example, you could
play a card game where you actually own and can therefore trade the cards in your collection
for essentially real money, or you could play a big open world game where your character's
armor and weapons, maybe even the character itself, is yours. If you put 100 hours into a game
And when a lot, you might be able to actually benefit financially from playing. There's a lot
of skepticism around this trend, I'll admit, especially around how to make games that are
both fun and financialized. And many games, most games do not need blockchains at all.
But I also see pretty tremendous experimentation, game design innovation, and a massive flow of
talent and capital to these new studios. And I think it's going to take a couple of years to
really get going. But in the same way that mobile gaming brought a whole new group of players and
revenue streams to the gaming industry over the past decade, it was a tremendous source of growth
for the industry. I suspect that this movement will have a similar effect in the next decade.
I think that blockchain games, more than any other segment of the gaming industry,
are going to push the boundaries of the ecosystem in the coming few years. And this isn't really a
stock market play. But a lot of these assets are still going to be traded publicly, and many
already are. So I think it'll be, at minimum, a fun movement to watch, but potentially also be
a lucrative one. Aaron Bush, always great talking to you. Thanks for being here.
Thanks for having me. Coming up after the break,
Andy Cross and Ron Gross return with a couple of stocks on their radar.
Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and
The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks
based solely on what you hear. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Chris Hill here once
again with Andy Cross and Ron Gross. Our new email address is podcastsatfool.com. Drop us a
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the word and help us out. We appreciate that. A couple of stories before we get to radar stocks,
guys. Amazon announced it is opening its first ever bricks and mortar clothing store later this
year named Amazon Style. The store will be located in the greater Los Angeles area and offer fashion
brands that the company says customers are familiar with. Andy, you bullish on this idea?
I actually am, Chris. I think it's really interesting, Ron. This is basically the
metaverse in person here for your shopping experience. You can use the app to scan a QR code
to select clothing that is displayed. So again, it's all through the Amazon app. So right there,
they have you in there. A sales associate will then bring them to your dressing room or robots
will bring them probably if not now, maybe at some time in the very near future. What's pretty
cool is that inside the private dressing rooms, and there's a bunch of them from what I can tell,
their Amazon provides these customized suggestions for you, tailored to what they know about you,
tailored to where your shopping experience is right there in a touch screen. You can select,
you can rate, you can say, I want this, I don't want this, I like this, I don't like this.
They have it all there. So really it's bringing the physical and the virtual together in a shopping
experience. Amazon style is built around personalizations. What they say are machine
learning algorithms produce tailored real-time recommendations for each customer as they shop.
So pretty interesting how Amazon is really infusing their cloud experiences, their distribution, their consumer app, and the shopping experience that many of us are looking for.
Yeah, I chuckled at first, but then when I dug in a little bit, I was like, huh, that's kind of neat.
One thing I was unclear of, it appears to me you don't actually leave with the clothes.
You order them online once you decide what you want.
if I'm right about that, that's a little weird to me. I like to, I don't know.
I think it's both. I think you can do both from what I can tell. What I like about it is it makes
those dressing rooms that are bland and stale and very lonely, if not intimidating, it actually
makes them engaging and fun. If any of our listeners in the Southern California area want
to do a little boots on the ground research later this year, drop us a note, let us know how that
goes. This week at the RV Super Show in Florida, Winnebago unveiled its electric RV camper.
Not only does it provide power to run appliances inside the vehicle, but the battery also enables
the vehicle to travel a range of up to, wait for it, 125 miles. Ron, I applaud the effort
here, but I think if you're driving the highways and byways of America, aren't you looking
to put more than 125 miles in in a given day? Clearly, yes. I think this ERV, right now,
it's merely a concept. Winnebago says that as battery technology evolves, there's a potential
for additional range. I would certainly hope so because I don't think 125 miles is getting anyone
too excited. If you look at it, it looks like a large minivan to me, not really an RV, but I'm
not an rv expert but it has a bed a kitchenette and a wet bath with a shower which i don't know
kind of gave me the skeevy's a little bit but i guess you know if it was bigger maybe it wouldn't
it wouldn't freak me out that much uh it could charge in 45 minutes supposedly using high-speed
public charging we'll see this is this is the infancy i think of our ervs and we'll see how
they evolve look at least if you're stuck out in the woods someplace you at least with your
when your battery dies, at least you have the amenities to take care of yourself for a couple
of days in the RV. So on that note, do you guys think that charging stations are going to start
to be a new amenity that hotels, Airbnbs, et cetera, start to push from a marketing standpoint
as more people are going electric with their vehicles that hotels and motels are saying,
hey, we've got charging stations. It's going to come in handy, particularly if
my Winnebago EV is only going to get me 120 miles. Yeah, and Pilot J too. All those along
the highway, it's going to be critical. Sorry, Ron. I do think you'll start seeing hotels,
for example, start adding that as amenities, but they're not going to take the hit to margins.
Nothing's for free. You're going to see a slight uptick in the cost of your room,
and that will include the ability to charge your car. Hey, your Tesla might be nice and
stylish and sleek and all that. It doesn't have a bed in it, right? Your Tesla doesn't have a
kitchenette in it, does it? Not yet. All right. If you're just starting out investing or you know
someone who's looking to get starting, we have a free investing starter kit that covers everything
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to fool.com slash starter kit. That's fool.com slash starter kit. All right. Let's go to
our man behind the glass, Dan Boyd. He's going to hit you with a question on your radar stock.
Andy Cross, you're up first this week. What are you looking at?
Fellas, I'm looking at RH, symbol RH. It's the former restoration hardware store founded
in 1979, provides high-end luxury housewares, operates 68 galleries, 14 waterworks stores
across the U.S. and sells online through RH.com and a few other different sites.
Market cap of $8.7 billion, stock at about $400. It's at a 52-week low. Growth is very attractive,
19% last quarter. It's really redesigned itself over the years. CEO Gary Friedman is the former
COO of Williams-Sonoma, is serving this massively large and very fragmented home furnishing
businesses. Excellent operating margins north of 20%, growing 15% to 20% per year. Buys back a lot
of stock at various points, EPS of around $22. That could probably grow, I think, 15% a year or
so. Stock's not very expensive at about 15 times for a pretty high-quality business, Dan.
Dan, question about RH. How big can the market for RH actually be, Andy? I'm a homeowner. Every
time I look in their catalog, I look at those prices and I laugh out loud. It's so high.
And by the way, those catalogs are massively thick, aren't they? Yes. It's a very large market,
especially when you think about the housing market and the evolving home market that we're
seeing in the U.S. So it's a pretty large market and people are looking for different expressions
to showcase their furniture, and RH is serving it, Dan.
Brian Gross, what are you looking at?
I'm going to start the year off by circling back to the gene therapy space I talk about
from time to time on the show. These stocks have been absolutely crushed alongside other
innovative tech stocks that are, let us call, pre-profitability. Today, I'm going to focus
on Intelia, NTLA, down 56% from its 52-week high. I could easily talk about Editas off 70%,
CRISPR Therapeutics off 65%, and many others. First off, I think I should note, I don't think
these stocks should have really ever achieved those highs. The stocks got ahead of the actual
progress of the companies based on an understandable excitement from investors that gene therapy
could potentially change the face of medicine, but that world-altering change isn't going to
happen tomorrow. We honestly don't even know if the CRISPR-Cas9 technology is going to be the
silver bullet, so buyer beware. But back to Intelia, made history last summer when it became
the first biotech company to successfully edit DNA inside the human body. They've got a strong
balance sheet, $1.1 billion in cash. That's essential for an early-stage biotech company
that is not profitable. Again, these investments, not for those that are risk-averse, buy a bundle,
buy an ETF, diversify your risk. Dan, question about Intelia?
Maybe not about Intelia, but I just want to congratulate old spin doctor Ron over here
in coining the phrase pre-profitable. But Ron, you're not fooling me. I know what pre-profitable
means. I know it means not profitable. Not profitable. Yeah, some of these
companies are actually profitable if you look at their income statement because they receive big
milestone payments from partners. For example, Intelia has Regeneron as a partner. CRISPR has
Vertex. But that's not real profitability. That's sustainable in my opinion. So as analysts,
we've got to be honest there. For profits, you got to go to homewares, Dan. You got to go to
homewares. What do you want to add to your watch list, Dan? I think I'm going to RH, Chris. The
appeal of a $7,000 couch just won't go away. Andy Cross, Ron Gross, guys, thanks for being here.
Thanks, Chris. That's going to do it for this week's
Motley Fool Money radio show. The show is mixed by Dan Boyd. I'm Chris Hill. We'll see you next week.
