Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing - The Jobs/Cook Era at Apple, Intel & AI, and Another SaaSpocalype
Episode Date: April 24, 2026AI is driving the market in multiple directions in 2026 and this week’s winner was Intel, who has such high demand it’s selling chips it once thought were worthless. We discuss the dynamics and ge...t to the Jobs/Cook run at Apple, and another SaaSpocalypse. Travis Hoium, Lou Whitemand, and Jason Moser discuss: - The Jobs/Cook era at Apple - Intel & AI - SaaSpocalype 3.0 - Value or falling knife stocks Companies discussed: Adobe (ADBE), Salesforce (CRM), Palantir (PLTR), The Trade Desk (TTD), Apple (AAPL), Servicenow (NOW), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Alphabet (GOOG). Host: Travis Hoium Guests: Lou Whitemand, Jason Moser Engineer: Dan Boyd Disclosure: Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, “TMF”) do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement. We’re committed to transparency: All personal opinions in advertisements from Fools are their own. The product advertised in this episode was loaned to TMF and was returned after a test period or the product advertised in this episode was purchased by TMF. Advertiser has paid for the sponsorship of this episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Did Intel become the big AI winner of 2026?
Motley Fool Money starts now.
Everybody needs money.
That's why they call it money.
The best things in life are free, but you can give them to the birds and bees.
From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money.
Welcome to Motley Fool Money. I am Travis Hoyum, joined today by Jason Moser and Lou Whiteman.
And guys, we are going to get to Intel and some of the implications for artificial intelligence,
why this is the hottest stock seemingly in the market right now.
But I want to start with Apple and Tim Cook.
He announced that he's going to retire as CEO or step down as CEO later this year.
And there's been a lot of discussion about Cook's legacy, including on one of the Motley
Fool Money shows earlier this week.
But I wanted to go back almost 30 years to the Jobs-Cook era of Apple.
And this is one of the most successful stock runs of all time.
Not only did Cook have a phenomenal run as CEO, but obviously Steve Jobs came back, saved
the company, came out with things like the iPod, eventually the iPhone and the iPad.
The Mac has gone from being this kind of forgotten product in the 90s when I was in high school to
now it's kind of the go-to PC for most people at home. So Lou, when you think back on that history
and kind of the end of this era, what do you think about as an investor?
So I want to be careful here because I think Cook was a great CEO and regardless of circumstances,
and I don't want to play otherwise, but it does. The lesson for me here is a lot of being a great
CEO is being the right person at the right time. When Steve Jobs was the CEO, especially when he
came out, it was about experimentation. It was about taking big bets. It was about finding,
defining products and, you know, introducing them. The famous one more thing where like,
this was a company that was not just throwing spaghetti at the wall and seeing what stick,
but it was one that we have got to try new things. By the time Cook got into the role,
it was about stability. It was about maintaining. And we've seen that. I mean, how many years have
we talked about, oh, there's going to be an Apple car or there's going to be an Apple TV? Because
as investors, we were conditioned for jobs and the one big thing. I think I'm glad those things
didn't come. And I think it's funny because I think investors still are sort of waiting for
that, like what's next from Apple. But really, Jobs built something amazing by taking huge risks
Cook sustained and built off of what Jobs did by not taking these big risks and not saying,
yeah, what the heck, let's do a car. And I think that there's a lot of takeaways there when we
kind of assess management at a lot of different companies. You want someone really smart,
but you also just want someone who is the right person for the task at hand.
Jason, you know, we often talk about founders as these visionary people. You know, I think
as Motley Fool investors, we tend to over-index to founders. They tend to be the kind of people
that can generate those massive returns. Think about the founders of Google. They are still
around. Meta, Amazon is a perfect example with Jeff Bezos. Jobs has a different story. He
obviously founded Apple, but then he was gone for what, about a dozen years, came back,
and then was, Lou, I think, put it in a really interesting way, the right person at the right
time, but he was also the founder of the company. That just seems like this interesting maturation
process that inevitably, if you start a company when you're 20 years old, you're just not the
person that you are when you're 35 or 40 or 45. But he still had that founder mentality and that
ability to walk into a room at Apple and say, this is where we're going. And you're going to
follow me. And everybody just hopped on board. I don't think that was true in the John Sculley
era. Yeah, I think you said it well there. You're not the same person at 20 that you are at 35,
45 years old. I mean, typically, most people through life, right, they get some perspective,
often build families and have just sort of new life events that give them sort of a different
point of view. And it is something to keep in mind. We do love seeing these founder-led
businesses, but there are also situations where a founder hits his or her limits, right? I mean,
they can't quite get to that next level. They get to a point where, okay, maybe you need to
bring someone in that can take this business to the next level. I mean, something I think about
Chipotle, for example, right? I think Steve Ells kind of ran into that situation where he just
didn't have what was required to be able to take that business to the next level. Obviously,
Brian Nickel did. Steve Jobs, he was one of one, right? I think a unique and a larger than life
leader. And I think that's just it. He was a good leader. And it doesn't sound like he was
that easy to work with. But I think typically that's the case, right? I think we've heard the
same thing about Jeff Bezos. They demand a lot. But you can tell that what they're doing is the
right thing, right? They take the business in the direction it needs to go. And Steve Jobs was one
one. Like I said, I think Apple did a wonderful job with that transition. Tim Cook, I think,
has just done a tremendous job. And we were very, I don't want to say skeptical, but the questions
were out there. We were asking those questions when that transition happened. We're like,
oh man, what's this going to be like? But Tim Cook, I think, was the right person at the right
time. Apple was well-established and they needed an operator to be able to take that business in
the direction that it's gone. Something Tim Cook has always said that sticks out with me is,
he's always said, inventory is the enemy, right? He just knew. He's like, man, we got to be moving
products. And so I think it's going to be interesting to watch Ternus take over because
he has such a reputation in the hardware side of the business. I mean, he's been with the company
forever, right? So he's an Apple loyalist, tremendous hardware reputation. And that really
is what Apple does, even as we watch services take up more and more of the business. So this
is going to be an interesting time for us as analysts, and certainly for, I think, Apple
enthusiasts. Yeah, I'm glad you went there, because that's what fascinates me. For all we
just said about the right person for the right job, TARDIS looks more than qualified, but he is
a product guy, right? And Jason, I don't know about you, but I don't see them going back to,
you know i mean i'm sure if there is a new category that they're looking at it but
i have to think that if turnus had some great idea over the last five years or something tim
cook didn't stop them so i don't think there's just something they're waiting to bust out of
the lab i wonder though like having a product guy back in charge should we expect a shift away from
like the minding the ship and i don't know if i'd before that or again i mean you know obviously it
Depends, hindsight is the key here,
if it's a great product.
But I'm really fascinated what from here
just with the choice they made.
Yeah, well, the interesting timing here
is that we do have this artificial intelligence moment too.
Does Apple just lean into what they have
and what they do right now and say,
you know what, we're probably still gonna have phones
in our pockets in 10 and 20 years.
So we're just gonna continue doing that
better than anybody else.
Or is this one of those disruptive moments
where a new hardware paradigm
typically comes around when you have some sort of major technology shift. You know, you have the PC,
you have the mobile phone, is artificial intelligence that? That's a huge question.
And this now falls on Ternus, which, you know, you could argue that Cook was not the visionary
person. So he maybe wasn't the person to lead Apple into that AI age. But lots of questions
about, is this going to be a Balmer era for Microsoft? Or is this going to be Satya Nadella
coming in and kind of going, Hey, this is the direction that we're going. I think it requires
a lot of imagination too, right? It's like, what is that next big hardware lightning in a bottle
moment? I just don't know. I mean, like these phones that we have today are, are magic, right?
I mean, like it just, it gives you access to the entire world and it's quite convenient. You can
just put it in your pocket and get on with life. I don't know what the next thing, I mean, vision
pro I know that was, they were like, hey, this is the next big thing. And I test drove one of
those vision pros. And I will say the technology is amazing. Again, it's like magic. I can also
tell you, I would never consider buying one because they're just simply not enough use cases,
right? It's just, it's not something I don't want to walk around wearing one of those things all
day. And after about 30 minutes, anyway, the novelty kind of wears off and your eyes start
burning. So it's hard to figure what is the next step, right? We've seen open AI talk about their
working on some sort of AI driven device, but I don't know what that is. I mean, what is it
beyond the phone? It just, it requires some imagination. And I think once we start to see
some of those ideas flesh out, you know, Apple does a very good job of capitalizing on that,
right? That whole philosophy of we're not trying to be first, we just want to be best. And so it'll
be interesting to see if Ternus continues on that philosophy. The other thing to just point out here
from an investment standpoint is Apple is not the cheapest stock in the world today. And that can be
a headwind as CEOs take over 34 price to earnings multiple. Cook took over a smaller company. He
also took over a company that was, I remember buying Apple stock in 2009 at less than 10 times
earnings after you pull down cash. So there are tailwinds on that valuation side too that can be
headwinds for a CEO that ultimately does impact their legacy, like it or not. Yep. When we come
back, we are going to get to what's happening with Intel and the SaaSpocalypse. You're listening
to Motley Fool Money.
And what better way than with the delicious Pret Organic Coffee?
Starting at just $1 all day, every day, now until December 31st.
You gotta try Pret First at A&W.
At participating A&W locations in Ontario.
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. AI has been the talk of the market for the last
three plus years now, but we're having some really interesting impacts in 2026. You saw
the memory shortage has just absolutely exploded memory stocks. And this week, Intel reported
earnings and the stock for all of its trouble, Jason, over the past few years, just hit an
all time high. One of the things that I thought is so crazy is that the company can't meet demand
for CPUs. I thought GPUs were going to be the problem. Then we thought memory was going to be
the problem. Now it's also CPUs are in a shortage, but they also sold chips that they had actually
written off. So this, they reported basically pre-profit. NVIDIA actually went through the
same phase a couple of years ago where they had written off some chips and then they ultimately
saw demand pull forward from AI. How do you wrap your head around all of this? Because it seems
There's just so much money flooding in that anything that any of these hyperscalers or
companies building out AI infrastructure can get their hands on, whether it's energy,
GPUs, CPUs, memory, they're going to buy all of it. Travis, all you have to do is just say AI,
man. I mean, remember, Allbirds, right? I mean, look at what they did. All of a sudden,
they go from being a shoe company to becoming a GPU-ass, right? GPUs as a service. I'm saying
that correctly. I'm not trying to say a bad word here on the show, but GPU-esque. Intel
certainly has had its troubles. It's honestly refreshing to see that they're being received
a little bit more positively in the market today. It was a very respectable quarter.
They are capitalizing, I think, on this move. It's been all about GPUs to this point. Now,
becoming more about CPUs, and that gives Intel the opportunity to capitalize there. I thought
the foundry business growing 16%, that was eye-catching. It's a hard one for me to get
behind. It's not like it's a business that's making a ton of money, but it is good to see
that they're able to capitalize on this AI opportunity. I just want to tap the brakes
and make sure we realize what Travis is saying, because Intel is old school, right, guys? I have
no hair. I remember Intel from the first dot-com crash. They are now above where they were in 1999,
2000. Wow, right? The thing is, though, it's not the same company as it was there. I love what
they're doing. I would point out that it's over 100 times forward sales now, almost like 120 times
forward sales now. Earnings or sales? I mean, earnings. I'm sorry. Yeah, 120 times earnings.
They are trading for eight times sales, which is still pretty expensive.
No, no, no.
Sorry.
Good catch.
But just so I don't know what to think now, but cheers to Intel.
Maybe we all have second acts like this.
Yeah.
The other thing that we saw this week is the SaaSpocalypse.
I don't know if we're on SaaSpocalypse 2.0, 3.0, 4.0.
We're up to Electric Boogaloo now.
This one was driven by ServiceNow.
Now, were things really that bad from ServiceNow that we need to sell off?
It seemed like everything even related to software was down 5% to 10% on, I think that
was Wednesday.
And some of these stocks are getting to the point where you look at them and you go, wait,
price-to-earnings multiple of 10, 11, 12 for companies that we seemingly use every day.
It seems like it's getting a little bit out of whack.
It is, you know, that was a big reaction to what I thought was actually a pretty good quarter.
I mean, we saw plenty of good things from ServiceNow.
They obviously beat guidance, raising guidance.
And I mean, I'm saying you're trying to figure out a way to be critical of what the company did.
You know, to me, I start thinking about, are you familiar with Jensen Huang's five-layer cake analogy?
I believe I've heard it, but remind me.
So he basically looks at AI as this five-layer cake.
And it's like the five layers are energy, then chips, then computing infrastructure, cloud data centers, AI models, and then ultimately this application layer.
To me, ServiceNow strikes me as a business that plays a role in that five-layer cake.
It's not a company that's necessarily going to be disrupted by AI, but rather one that continues to benefit from it.
And so that's why the reaction I thought was a little bit overdone.
It just didn't seem like it matched up with the results of the quarter.
But, you know, again, it's just such a volatile stretch here with AI.
And we're trying to understand exactly the impacts of what it's going to have on all of these different businesses.
Some will be disrupted, but I think some are going to take advantage of it.
And I think ServiceNow is probably one of them.
Yeah. So, you know, it's funny because if you really want to squint, Jason,
so maybe gross margins looking out aren't as good as they were. But again, if that is the
SaaSpocalypse, I think we can ride that storm, right? It's funny, guys. I spoke to a CEO this
week at a decent-sized company, and I was asked about this, and they said, flat out,
nothing has changed in their software purchasing habits due to AI. They hope it will. They're
reading these headlines, too, and they'd love to save money, but for now, nothing has happened.
And I get the thesis here, and I don't think I want to be dismissive of the thesis, but
I do think that instead of just throwing it all out each quarter, I do think we should
wait to see real concrete evidence, which I think is what Jason is saying.
I will say, if I'm going to pick a bone with this quarter, and maybe guys just don't know
the business this well, but I kind of feel like, is the Middle East the new weather?
because they did blame what's going on in the Middle East for part of the DAFA. I think maybe
they took a punt with that just a bit, and we probably ought to, I don't know,
find them in kangaroo court for that. But overall, if this is the onslaught, I think a lot of these
companies can survive that. I do want to point out that there are questions about how the business
model could potentially change in a world of artificial intelligence. And I want to use Adobe
as an example. They made a shift to software as a service. So remember, we used to buy Adobe
products on disks, and then you would own the software forever. Maybe you get some minor
updates, but you would just own that software forever. And they made that shift in 2011, 2012
to the cloud product, the software as a service model that has become so popular in Silicon
Valley. And I just want to put some numbers to this. In 2012, their revenue was up 4%. In 2013,
it dropped 7.9%. So you're going from selling this piece of software for hundreds of dollars to,
okay, I'll charge you X amount per month. That actually had a negative impact on revenue short
term. Also had a negative impact on margins. Their operating profit dropped to $422 million that year.
But since 2013, revenue has compounded 16%. Operating profit has compounded 28%.
So we may be entering a world where the business model shifts from paying per seat to paying for
how many tokens you're using, what your productivity is. I don't know whether that
leads to a more profitable business, but I think that's something that investors are thinking about
and don't know the full answer to.
Absolutely.
Usage-based.
I mean, that I think is where the puck is headed.
And you're right.
It's hard to ascertain exactly how that impacts the economics of the business
because what was before in sort of a reliable,
sort of steady stream predictable,
now it becomes a little bit more nebulous.
But I guess we will see when we get there.
When we come back,
we're going to see if these stocks are falling knives or values.
You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
I feel it's their appointed duty
They keep trying to tell me
All you want to do is use me
But my answer
You gotta try breakfast
And what better way than with a delicious Pret Organic Coffee, starting at just $1 all
day, every day, now until December 31st, at participating A&W locations in Ontario.
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. In this segment, we like to have a little bit of fun
with investing. And I wanted to get an idea with some of these stocks that have dropped
recently, especially year to date. Are these stocks values that investors should be looking
at today and going, you know, scooping up as many of these as possible? Or are they falling
knives where it's just it's over and for some reason the business has completely changed or
the markets. Dynamics is completely changed, and these stocks are not going to recover.
Let's start out, Lou, with Adobe. We all know Adobe. They've got all these professional tools
that people smarter and more creative than I am know how to use. I'm still using Canva,
so I'm the other side of the ledger. But it does seem like a very sticky product. And yet,
the stock has done absolutely horribly. In the past five years, the drawdown is currently
at 65%. That's from its high late in 2021. But the valuation, you're looking at on a forward
basis, price-to-earnings multiple is just 10.8. Enterprise value to sales is 4. You look at their
financials, it doesn't look like they're being disrupted. When you continue to grow revenue at
double digits, there doesn't seem like you're seeing pricing pressure. So is this a value
stock or a falling knife? So full disclosure, I bought this one earlier this year. And so I guess
I have to say value. Okay. And again, I get the thesis and I get the idea that AI is doing a lot
of the things. I love making funny pictures that I didn't know how to do on Adobe two years ago.
And now I can just have Gemini do it for me. I don't think the professional crowd is going to
be satisfied with what I find funny. I think that, yeah, the old bull case for Adobe was
people like me would eventually buy their watered down products and that's how they grow their
market. I think that bull case is dead. I think that people like me will just use AI as long as
it's free. But I think that Adobe is such a trusted name with its core audience, these
professionals. Adobe is using AI to improve its products. I don't see the professional crowd just
saying, you know what, free AI is good enough, or even AI I'm paying for that isn't customized to
what I want for a long time. I think Adobe outruns the AI here, and I do think it's a value.
Jason? Yeah, I tend to agree. I mean, I am,
full disclosure i own i own some uh adobe stock as well and i've recommended it in one of our
services and it's absolutely been a challenging time but i think lou's right i mean it's one
thing for me to be able to go into clod or gemini and like just put together some goofy little
cartoon or graphic whatever i don't think the professional content creators necessarily see
that the same way. And I understand the trepidation there and sort of the questions in regard to
disruption. But I think that Adobe is doing a good job of leaning into the AI opportunity,
partnering with the right companies. I mean, there was just the NVIDIA partnership that was
announced recently as well. And I think that's going to be something that they are able to
overcome. You got to remember too, man, I mean, this is a company that makes a ton of cash. I
yin yang and uh just announced a 25 billion dollar share repurchase authorization too
and that matters the market didn't have a lot of a lot of response no well i mean it's an
authorization right so if it's not like it's an authorization and but but i think it's also worth
mentioning you look over the last five years the company's brought the share count down 14 so they
do they are doing a good job at least when they make those authorizations and they repurchase
those shares. It is having the intended effect in bringing that share count down. And I think
looking forward, the valuation right now, I hope that they start to execute this repurchase plan
sooner rather than later, because it does seem to me, this is more of a value play as opposed
to a falling knife. I've had to ask about potential business model shifts, because I
mentioned that in the last segment that this is a company that has gone through these business
model shifts from selling one-time sales to the SaaS business model. If we do go to a world where
maybe there's a SaaS light, you pay for a seat, pay for access, but then you're also paying for
tokens on top of that and whatever your usage is. Lou, can they have an equally profitable?
They got a 37% operating margin. Could they have an equally profitable, maybe even higher revenue
business in that world of, you know, selling more tokens and for productivity than just selling for
seats. Maybe. I mean, it's a funny thing to hear is that, yeah, I mean, we are so focused on the
downside. There is a lot of different ways this goes. If nothing else, let's just not, and this
back to the conversation about service now, let's not just not assume the default is the worst case
scenario. And I feel like the market has in some of these, there's a lot of ways this could go out.
some of them, as you say, could be positive. Yeah. Going back to that 2012 number that I
talked about earlier, investors would have done extremely well owning Adobe stocks. So some of
these business model shifts maybe don't work out as poorly as the market thinks. Let's talk about
Salesforce, Jason. Salesforce's drawdown currently is at 52%. Priced earnings multiple on a forward
basis is 13 this is a business of you know a few years ago you would have been crazy not to be
buying sales force at 13 times earnings yeah and now here we are and there's probably more questions
about the company's future than ever but again it's possible that this is a value but is it a
value or a falling knife it seems to me more like a value than a falling knife i mean love it or
it, right? Customer relationship management, CRM that Salesforce does so well. I mean,
that is just such a large and important market. And they're so ingrained and enmeshed in it at
this point. It's hard to imagine it not helping lead the way there. And I'm kind of torn on this
one because I think Mark Benioff is a good leader. I love his enthusiasm for the business, but it's
almost overly enthusiastic. He's almost like car salesman-like at times. And that concerns me a
little bit if he's not really just trying, you know, what they say, you don't sell the steak,
you sell the sizzle. Well, Benioff sells the sizzle, that's for sure.
Well, and don't go back to his interviews from a few years ago and say,
look at what he says the world is going to look like and then compare it to reality,
because not a lot lines up. Exactly. And so, you got to kind of take
everything with a little bit of a grain of salt there. You know, the other thing that kind of
concerns me is Salesforce. Really, a lot of the growth that this company has witnessed over the
last several years, it's all been inorganic, right? It's been a lot of acquisitions. And
that's okay. I get it. You got to buy some stuff to kind of pull into your universe and build out
the business. But a lot of that growth really has been through acquisitions. And that's where I get
a little bit concerned. I'm not sure how seamless this is all going. It does start to feel like it's
a little bit of a clunky business. But I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt,
another company that can generate a ton of cash. And he seems to really know where he wants to
take this thing. And so I think for now, I'm going to go ahead and say they're going to be
another company that benefits from AI as opposed to getting disrupted by it. And maybe today's price
looks like it could be a pretty good one. Yeah. I know we're supposed to argue,
but I'm basically right there. Less enthusiastic, but if the sky is falling, I actually want to see
the sky fall. What I see is revenue, EPS, free cash flow trends heading in the right direction,
a wonderful balance sheet. Net debt, I think, just maybe less than 0.3 times EBITDA.
there's just look i i get the case i get the the high scalers like cyber security
ai all of this can be bundled into one thing and bypass everyone maybe that'll happen but until we
actually see that hitting the business i refuse to believe that the market is is on to something
here all right let's go to one that me may get on the uh falling knife side maybe not from an
operational perspective. But Palantir is not the low double-digit price-to-earnings multiple. It
is now just into double digits, just under 100 forward price-to-earnings multiple. The stock
is in a 32% drawdown as we're recording. Still extremely expensive, but still really good
operations, Lou. So is this the kind of thing that can fall further, or is this the kind of value
that investors should be looking for? Value kind of in air quotes in Palantir terms.
Yeah. So I think I said on this show last year that I have never in my investing life
come across a company valued like Palantir. And that includes Tesla. I just don't get it. And I
know the government side of this business very well. And I know the growth rates and potential
there. And man, commercial really has to do some heavy lifting to justify this. Because valuation
is always like, can they grow into it? Government is still more than half the business too,
which scares me. I didn't get it then. I still don't get it now. I respect the company. I respect
the product. I wouldn't mind being an owner at some point. But I don't think this is gloom and
doom the way it is with some of the others. But I also, I can't get behind this as value right now.
It's still over 100 times expected earnings. I always, as an investor, I embrace the idea of
just knowing what you don't know. And I don't really know still fully how Palantir does what
it does or what it really does. I understand the big picture idea of the business, but it is a very
difficult business to understand, I guess is my point. And for that reason alone, that gives me
pause. When I see the valuation the way it is, it makes zero sense. It seems like the way that
all these AI labs are hooking themselves further and further into companies. That was what Palantir
seemed to be better at than anybody else. And now, I'm not saying that that's going to be
commoditized, but it seems like competition used to be zero, and now it is at least something.
Right. It's not zero anymore. And Alex Karp, I think he's just done a tremendous job with
this business. Okay, I'm going to give him all the credit in the world. He's another leader that
can be polarizing and i think you know people have strong opinions on him and he certainly gets out
there and speaks his mind and that can be good and that can be bad but yeah when i i just it's hard
for me to understand exactly what the value is and what they provide that can't be replicated i'm not
saying it can be i'm just saying i don't know and when i when i have all of this uncertainty
as to even understanding what the business, what's their secret sauce and what keeps them going
and separates them from everyone else. It's just, it becomes too many question marks for me.
And the valuation where it is today just seems to be astronomical. So I would take a pass.
I want to get to one other stock that seems like it's got to be a value at some point
as we end here the trade desk jason this is one that down 83 percent now yeah from from its high
basically at the beginning of 2025 so this is just over a year it's dropped that far forward
price earnings multiple is 11 is this a value here where in the world is it a value or is this
just a falling knife that is going to go into oblivion i think this one is way overdone personally
I am a trade desk shareholder and I've owned shares for a long time. So yeah, this drawdown
hurts, but it's still thankfully a position that's in the green for me. So I can't complain
too much, I guess. I think Jeff Green's massive share purchase recently is something to keep in
mind there. He is very clearly confident in the future of this business. And he obviously knows
the space very well, programmatic advertising. And I think they have a tremendous opportunity
in connected TV. I think there are some question marks in regard to competition there. When we're
seeing Amazon, for example, coming into the fray there, it's this walled garden versus open
internet battle, right? And Jeff Green is very clearly on the open internet side of things.
And I think there's something to be said for that. I think the objectivity that he talks about
exists. I think that matters. I don't know how long this is going to last. I just, it feels to
me that this is one where it's been overdone. The company's still growing at healthy double
digit rates, makes a ton of cash. Granted, they've, you know, their fair share of base
compensation as well. I'd like to see that kind of be reined in a little bit, but it's one I'm
to continue to hang on to. And I think at today's price, it does seem like it's at least an
opportunity for a company that plays in a very, very big market. Yeah, it's funny, J-Mod. Again,
I just went back and looked. I bought in March of 2020, and it's down 80%. But yeah, those
shared from that point, it's still up about 60%. So what a crazy ride it's been on, right?
And the size of the business has basically tripled since then, or more than tripled.
Yeah. And, and, and I will say my thesis going in there was wrong or was naive because I do think
the world has changed. I don't think, I mean, this is a massive market and I underappreciated
the potential for the Amazons of the world to come in and take some of it, but I don't think I,
but there is still a big market, the trade desk. I mean, they still, customers are still sticking
with them. I do think I, I mean, like I have not been tempted to buy more. I, at some point,
trading at, what, 10 times earnings? Maybe it's time to think about that. I think the world has
changed for them. I don't think it'll ever be just the market destroyer that it looked like for a few
years there. But it certainly, from here, looks like a market beater. Guys, you want a bold
prediction? I keep thinking with where they are today, who's that big tech company that just seems
to buy random, unrelated things and make it work? And like, wow, it looks genius in hindsight.
LinkedIn, all of those, Microsoft Trade Desk would be such a great partnership.
Yeah, that's a good point too. And I mean, also think about this opportunity that we just don't
even really know about yet is, you know, recently we heard OpenAI was in talks with the Trade Desk
in possible partnership as OpenAI tries to figure out ways to monetize, right, with ChatGPT. And I
think we're going to see a lot of these LLMs, they're going to have to figure out a way to
monetize beyond just charging people and enterprises. And I think we're going to see
advertising become a big part of that. There is a distinct possibility that the trade desk will
be partnering up with one or some of these companies. And that could be just a phenomenal
opportunity. Yeah, we'll see where this goes. There's definitely some values out there. When
we come back, we are going to get to the stocks on our radar. You're listening to Motley Fool.
And he shows them pearly white.
Just a jackknife has Mac Heath dear,
and he keeps it way out of sight.
When that shark bites, well, it's teeth dear.
Scarlet billows begin to spread.
Fancy gloves, though.
Where's our Mackey, babe?
So there's never, never, ever.
You gotta try breakfast at A&W.
You gotta try breakfast at A&W.
And what better way than with a delicious Pret Organic Coffee?
Starting with just $1 all day, every day, now until December 31st.
You gotta try breakfast at A&W.
At participating A&W locations in Ontario.
As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about,
and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against,
so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.
All personal finance content follows The Motley Fool's editorial standards and is not approved
by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes
only. To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes. And as a heads
up, The Motley Fool Money Podcast is getting a refresh with some new music and a new name,
Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing. We'll still show up in your feed in the same way we always
do. We'll keep talking about stocks. The logo will just be a little bit different on Monday
morning. Let's get to the stocks on our radar. Jason, you're up first. What do you got?
Yeah, Alphabet. Ticker is G-O-O-G or G-O-O-G-L, whichever you prefer. But shares are up about
120% over the last 12 months, as the company is doing a very good job leading on the AI front.
If you just look at last quarter, management noted that the company had sold 8 million paid
seats for the Gemini Enterprise app, and that Gemini now boasts over 750 million users. So
they're doing a very good job leaning into that AI opportunity. Now, I know some may still question
the massive capital outlays that they're committing to, right? $175 to $185 billion just this year
alone. But it is apparent where most of that money is going. It's going to AI. And given the market's
enthusiasm for AI and all of its potential, I think these investments will continue to pay off.
So we've got earnings coming out on April 29th, and I will be looking for that.
Dan, are you a Google AI bull? Listen, this might be a retread here,
gang, but the company name change to Alphabet is dumb, and they should change it back to Google.
That's absolutely true. I totally agree there.
All of those name changes should be undone. Lou, what do you got?
Dan, I want to do a flyover on Southwest Airlines, ticker LUV. It's a tough time for airlines,
as we've discussed. Jet fuel prices spiking, concerns about the consumer. But Southwest in
particular is interesting right now because they are changing the way they do business.
They're adopting policies like charging for bags, assigned seating, a lot of questions about what
consumers think about that. Well, they had earnings. The good news is those changes are
generating more revenue. 60% of ticket buyers upgraded from the base fare in the first quarter,
up from 20% a year ago. Cash flow, profitability both improved. And Dan, right now, there's a lot
of talk about M&A all over the industry. United, JetBlue, American, Alaska all seem to be caught
up in rumors. I think that works well for Southwest right now because they're in a period
of chaos overhauling their business. So let's see chaos everywhere. Stock has lost a third
of its value over the past five years, underperforming the industry. I think there's smoother air
on the hit. Dan, what's going on your watch list?
We got a dumb name and a dumb ticker. Love, not good. I don't want either one.
That's all the time we have today. We'll be back tomorrow. Thanks for listening to Motley
for money.
