Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing - The Trade Desk’s Woes & A New AI Donut?

Episode Date: August 7, 2026

As earnings season winds to a close, the team discusses what we learned this quarter and why a new jobs report may actually be good for the market. Plus, we discuss The Trade Desk’s bad week, Google...’s brain drain, and the stocks on our radar. Travis Hoium, Lou Whiteman, and Jon Quast discuss: - Jobs Report - Earnings Season Recap - The Trade Desk - Value or Trap? - Google’s Brain Drain - Stocks on our Radar Companies discussed: Alphabet (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), The Trade Desk (TTD), Shift4 (FOUR), Micron (MU), Salesforce (CRM), Adobe (ADBE), GM (GM), Symbotic (SYM), ServiceNow (NOW), . Host: Travis Hoium Guests: Lou Whiteman, Jon Quast Engineer: Dan Boyd Disclosure: Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, “TMF”) do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement. We’re committed to transparency: All personal opinions in advertisements from Fools are their own. The product advertised in this episode was loaned to TMF and was returned after a test period or the product advertised in this episode was purchased by TMF. Advertiser has paid for the sponsorship of this episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Would you buy a donut-shaped AI device? Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing starts now. Welcome to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing. I'm Travis Hoey. I'm joined today by Lou Whiteman and Jon Quast. Guys, we are going to get to that donut-shaped AI device in just a moment. But I do want to cover the latest news that came out just a few minutes before we started recording. That is the jobs report for the month of July. Lou, the US economy, at least according to this first reading, and these get revised over time, lost 23,000 jobs. The estimate was for 83,000 jobs to be gained, but the unemployment rate fell 4.1%. The sort of strange thing here, if you are not into these market dynamics, is that the market is actually
Starting point is 00:00:46 up, at least in pre-market trading. Right. Yeah. Which I think makes sense because it at least maybe puts the idea of not raising rates on the table, which I think we were thinking was going to happen because the Fed's dual mandate is fight inflation and protect employment. All the focus of late has been on inflation. If employment is weak, then maybe that does stall things. But really, I don't think the market is shocked by this report because I don't think we should be. The unemployment rate is kind of a, the participation rate is the lowest it's been since COVID. So that, you know, that is the denominator on the unemployment rate. So that I kind of don't focus on. I think this report and the last month too, where it missed expectations,
Starting point is 00:01:37 it's telling us what we kind of already knew. It's not a red hot employment market. It's also not a falling off the cliff employment market. I think the employment side of the mandate speaks for a lack of action among the Fed, but watching closely. So I think the question is still the same. Is inflation bad enough that the Fed has to move or will they just buy their time and not do anything? And maybe we got a slight leaning towards do nothing for for longer. John, this does seem to be at least the short-term reaction is what is the Fed going to do based on this report? You know, obviously inflation is still something to think about. But as we look at earnings reports and we're going to talk about big picture takeaways from earnings season in just a moment,
Starting point is 00:02:24 it does strike me that some of the weakness in the economy that some companies talk about is showing up in these job numbers. And that has me at least a little worried about what are earnings going to look like going forward if fewer people have jobs? That would definitely be a thing if fewer people have jobs. I just don't think that this report showed us enough to make us overly concerned about that in the moment. Of course, we're always looking forward and monitoring that and making sure that jobs aren't falling off a cliff in the future. But they certainly aren't right now. i i do know that from the government's perspective it would like a it's kind of a weird place to be yes it wants a hot economy but it also does want those interest rates to come down and that's
Starting point is 00:03:08 harder to do the hotter the economy is so maybe this is the middling kind of report that the government hopes for so that we can at least start not raising rates and getting them down because so much of the national budget at this point is going to to interest and so it would lower interest rates. Yeah, that's not happening. Sorry. But I mean, I think it's important to really look at these numbers and not just take the big macro. I mean, a lot of the weakness was retail and leisure, and that is likely the World Cup reaction. Hospitality shed 40,000 jobs after the World Cup. And this is, again, heading away from the summer season. You're definitely not hiring their sports equipment jobs. Sports and leisure equipment jobs, though, were great. So
Starting point is 00:03:58 again, I am very, very cautious, especially, Travis, as you say, this will be revised a lot of times. Could get a lot worse, could get a lot better. But there was nothing in here saying the sky is falling. There's nothing here saying that things are robust. This, again, speaks to Fed inaction. And I think, yeah, sure, the government would like to pay less on interest rates, but interest rates are fine. Interest rates are still below where they have been for most of the last three decades. Businesses can survive here. I think I don't want to say Goldilocks because, you know, if anything, everything is glass half empty, but there is a lot of water in the glass, at least. Let's turn our attention to earnings because we've gotten through most of earnings
Starting point is 00:04:40 season. We still have a bunch of reports from smaller companies next week, but a lot of the big companies have reported. We've heard from, you know, a lot of the companies that are in the The Motley Fool Universe that are very popular. You know, the Trade Desk reported last night. We'll talk about them in a moment. Shopify. Lou, as you look at the earnings season, what are your big picture takeaways? Obviously, AI is something that we're all thinking about, talking about how much is that spending happening.
Starting point is 00:05:07 But was there a way that the market was reacting that sort of told the story of the quarter to you? I think the story of the quarter is resilience. We're focused on AI, but the rest of the economy, the rest of the companies reporting are looking okay. I think outside of software, a lot of the big movers were in software. But if you look, banks, really strong. Airlines, surprisingly strong. There's just a lot of success stories outside of the tech trade.
Starting point is 00:05:35 I just did a quick count this morning, 45 companies from the S&P 500, probably more than raised full year guidance in this quarter. Analyst estimates for S&P 500 earnings per share, so kind of a wider index, not company-specific, they're up 3% since late June, just the consensus estimate. Things are doing okay. There's been a lot of volatility. There's been a lot of gloom and doom on the AI trade. That is where our attention is. But I think if you go to flyover country, baby, or if you go kind of off of the center of attention. I'm not saying, again, but kind of similar to the jobs report. I'm not saying things are great, but they're not bad. Yeah. John, what has been your takeaway looking at earnings this
Starting point is 00:06:18 year? You know, I don't know why they call it a consensus estimate, because it seems like we're always expecting a different number. What is interesting is that what Lou is saying is absolutely correct. And I think that the word choice that he just had of resilience was an excellent choice. And yet there are some interesting reactions where a company is perhaps beating that consensus estimate. And yet it almost is like the market expected it. And the reaction is either very little to the positive. And I think of many of the top AI trade stocks in that bucket, many of them showing numbers that were even ahead of what the consensus estimate was, or even internal projections. And yet the reaction from the market is kind of, you know,
Starting point is 00:07:01 a 5% gain or something like that. That's kind of interesting to me. And then some companies that are outside the AI trade seeing their stocks get hammered 10% or so, even though the number's coming in better than expected and raising that guidance. And so there is an interesting reaction. I don't know if that's, you know, it's just anecdotal. I don't know how pervasive that trend actually is.
Starting point is 00:07:24 I haven't done the numbers on that, but there are a large number of companies that are coming in better than expected, and yet not all of those stocks seeing the benefit from the market. And so do with that what you will. Yeah, John, do you think that part of that is still the disruption story. I just think about a company like Uber. Uber reported this week
Starting point is 00:07:42 pretty good numbers. They're growing their bookings over 20% year over year. They said they're going to be in 15 cities with autonomous vehicles. And yet the stock was down. And the biggest thing that always sticks out to me is investors just have questions about, are they just going to get crushed by Waymo? Yeah, I think that's definitely part of it, right? We're investors and we're thinking about the future. We're not thinking about the last three months. And for some companies, the disruption question is on the table. It hasn't satisfactorily been answered yet for investors. So Uber is in that bucket. How much is AI innovation going to drive driverless technology forward and then disrupt the business model? That's the question that investors are asking. I think of other companies such as financial technology, enterprise software, these sorts of things. There are companies that are delivering good numbers, and yet the existential question is still on the table, and it hasn't been satisfactorily answered, even with the last three months being good.
Starting point is 00:08:39 Yeah, a company like Meta fits that bucket to me as well. Didn't satisfactorily answer how are they going to make money on all of this AI spending. So lots of questions yet to be answered for the rest of the year. When we come back, we're going to talk about this AI donut that OpenAI is reportedly developing. You're listening to Motley Fool, Hidden Gems, Investor. Where some see heroes and others see egos, Bloomberg sees the era of billionaire athletes. A fad to some, the future of money to others. We see crypto's trillion dollar swings, the end of jobs or the end of human struggle.
Starting point is 00:09:17 We see the endless funds fueling the AI hype. While others follow the noise, we follow the money. Learn more at Bloomberg.com. Welcome back to Motley Fool and Jim's Investing. The big topic as we prepared for the show over the past 24 hours or so was this new device that Bloomberg is reporting that OpenAI is developing. You know, if you've been following this, OpenAI has been stealing people from Apple for years at this point.
Starting point is 00:09:48 Johnny Ive joined the company with the acquisition of his startup. This has become now a lawsuit between the two companies. But what in the world are those people actually making? That is what a lot of us have been wondering because oftentimes a new piece of hardware comes with a new technology paradigm. Lou, the piece of hardware that they are reportedly making is a hockey puck sized donut with a speaker and some moving components. I don't know exactly what that means, but is this the kind of thing you're excited to jump all over? Well, first of all, we should say that Johnny Ive is not involved in the lawsuit. OpenAI bought that company fair and square. But since there's lawyers running around everywhere, we should say that.
Starting point is 00:10:30 But yeah, look, Travis, if you're like me, you can't walk down Main Street in your hometown without hearing someone say, gosh, I love AI, but I just wish there was a $300 device I'd carry around my house to interact with. Right? Right? That's what we all want? So you're a little skeptical. Well, look, we do have a device that we carry around our house to access AI. and it works really daggone well. We can use it to search.
Starting point is 00:10:55 We can use it to play Wordle. We can do whatever we want. It's got a great battery life. It fits in your pocket. It's the phone, all right? That is what we have to be better than to compel people to buy a new $300 speaker. Yeah, I guess it's going to dance around
Starting point is 00:11:11 when it's talking to you. I don't get it. I really don't. I mean, the good news, bad news for Apple shareholders here. If you were putting into your models a huge windfall from just the profit sharing that Apple is going to get after there's a settlement on this intellectual property thing for all of the OpenAI revenue they're going to generate
Starting point is 00:11:31 from hardware. You may be disappointed here because I don't think there's going to be a lot of profits to share here. This is a device because OpenAI needs a device. I don't think this is solving a problem anyone actually has. Yeah. Do you see this any more positive, John? Well, no, not for the donut-shaped item in particular. Bloomberg reporting that it's going to be donut-shaped so it can sit on a nightstand or a counter. But I checked my nightstands and counters this morning, and there are many non-donut-shaped things sitting on them. But I'm actually in the market for an AI hardware device right now. I'm looking at some very strongly that are recording devices. They will record conversations. They will transcribe those conversations and then provide AI summaries and action points automatically in an app. that to me has utility for myself personally having multiple jobs having many conversations with many people throughout the day i do forget things and i have to take physical notes that would be simpler there's no screen you can have it out on the table as far as moving parts there's
Starting point is 00:12:36 a toggle physical toggle switch i would imagine that's what open ai is looking at with their own device but here's the thing the ones that i am looking at the utility is debatable so i'm debating that in my mind, but it's also coming in at a third the price of what this item is. You look at Apple's strategy over the years, that premium pricing that they demand, that has a reputation behind it, a hardware reputation that OpenAI does not have. And so how is it going to charge a premium pricing on its own AI hardware device right out of the gate when there are other devices out on the market at a much lower price and aesthetically pleasing as they are? So this, I don't think is going to gain traction. To me, it's the Amazon Fire Phone.
Starting point is 00:13:20 Yeah, Lou, the thing I always think about with a lot of these AI technologies and the potential devices is the paradigms that we've gone through in the past. And it seems so clear to me, you know, when the PC first came out, you know, the mid 80s or 90s, whenever you got your first PC, that was such a big difference from a typewriter. And then when mobile phones came out, or especially smartphones, you went from, okay, now I got to go to my computer to access to the internet to, oh my gosh, there's a screen that has all of this stuff available to me and the world is my oyster. I have such a harder time making the same leap with some of these AI devices. Is that that sort of 10x? It's got to be 10x better to actually replace a phone. Is that what you're
Starting point is 00:14:03 indicating here? This is both Apple's greatest success and greatest failure as a growth company now is that the phone is really good. That's exactly it, Travis, is that to change consumer behavior, you have to give the consumer something they don't have today. And I don't know why the donut versus your phone makes things any better than it was today. So, yeah, I just look. Because we need to is not a good reason. Yeah, it has to be because it's worth it for you, the consumer or the consumer won't buy it. All right, let's move on to a big earnings report that happened overnight. That was the trade desk. And John, this is one of those companies that has always been loved by the market until 12 or 18 months ago. And then things really went off the rails
Starting point is 00:14:54 after this recent earnings report, at least, you know, in pre-market trading and post-market after after the report came out, shares were down somewhere around 20% off about 90% from their high. What went wrong at the trade desk? Well, it's execution. You look at the last three quarters. We had 12% growth in the first quarter, only 3% growth in this quarter and forecasting potentially a 12% drop in revenue in the upcoming quarter. This is supposed to be a huge growth business. It's the market is expanding that they're in. And so this is an execution thing. And Jeff Green, CEO, coming out of the gate here and blaming the macro conditions, something outside of its control. And I'm sorry. I want to highlight that because I listened to
Starting point is 00:15:37 at least the first half of the call. And he spent 10 minutes talking in detail about all of them. Here's the macro conditions. And this is why Nike isn't spending more and all these kinds of things. And I was going, this is excuses. This is always a red flag for me as an investor. Yeah, I'm sorry. This doesn't pass the sniff test here. You know, he normally comes out with long monologues talking against these walled garden businesses of meta platforms, Alphabet and Amazon did not mention walled gardens on the call. And I believe that that was very wise on his part because you look at those numbers, all of those growing by double digits at much higher revenue bases, whereas the trade desk is projecting this shortfall, this deceleration, this decline in
Starting point is 00:16:22 revenue in the upcoming quarter. To me, that is an internal problem of execution. You also look at other companies that do have a lot of overlap with the trade desk. The trade desk is very heavily weighted towards consumer packaged goods and cars in their advertising mix. Not a one-to-one, but there are other companies in the space, AdTech, Magnite, and Pubmatic reporting double-digit growth. Even companies like Zeta is posting very strong growth rates. And so to me, this doesn't pass the sniff test from Jeff Green in the trade desk. I think the walled garden is winning. And yeah, I mean, I'm not going to just say execution is nothing management could do, but the internet is getting more closed off. The trade desk has always said we have a solution for that.
Starting point is 00:17:06 We're not seeing it. And look, guys, I don't think this gets any better. I keep hearing that AI bots are going to do all the shopping for us, if not actually buying. A bit skeptical there, but I do think more of this is going to bots. Do bots respond to advertising? Is there like what world does that play? But let's talk about green for one second. You know, you mentioned like his His statement, the quarter didn't meet the standards, but it has reinforced the belief that we are focused on the right opportunities. I think that has to ring hollow for investors at this point. That was maybe something you did three or four quarters ago when first bombed.
Starting point is 00:17:44 Green needs to move upstairs. I know he has nearly 50% voting power, so we're not going to activist here, but his voice is no longer resonating on Wall Street. He needs to go become executive chairman. Hopefully, he can do a better job finding a CEO than he did with finding a CFO, given how long that's taken and how many things. But we just need a new, if Trade Desk is going to have a chance here, even if the strategy is right, even if it is just all of the macro headwinds against them, even if you concede
Starting point is 00:18:16 that, there just needs to be a new face of this company for Wall Street or things aren't going to change. Lou, do you think that the fundamental dynamics of advertising in this digital age have changed in a way that is going to make it really hard for the trade desk? Because there are companies like John said, who are doing well. I think the trade desk is having trouble adjusting to the internet as quickly as others. And that isn't to say they can't, but right now it's not happening. When we come back, we're going to play Value or Value Trap. You're listening to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.
Starting point is 00:18:53 where some see heroes and others see egos bloomberg sees the era of billionaire athletes a fad to some the future of money to others we see crypto's trillion dollar swings the end of jobs or the end of human struggle we see the endless funds fueling the ai hype while others follow the noise we follow the money learn more at bloomberg.com welcome back to molly pool and gems investing in this segment we like to have a little bit of fun with investing so we're going to play a game called value or value trap we're going to ask john and lou whether these companies are a great value for investors or whether this is a trap that you know looks really cheap but doesn't end up being that long term
Starting point is 00:19:45 the first stack we're going to talk about we just covered a little bit that is the trade desk but Lou, I want to know, is this now a value? We were just going over the numbers during the break. $5 billion enterprise value. The price earnings multiple on a forward basis is 6.6. By the way, all of these companies have a forward PE under 15. So theoretically, they could be values. But is this a trap?
Starting point is 00:20:09 Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. At this point, I am not going to see value here until I see some articulation from them that they know how to solve the mess they're in. Right now, I think it's a trap or it's too risky to try and catch this fallen knife. John? Yeah, I agree with that.
Starting point is 00:20:28 Value trap for now. I mean, you point out the forward earnings multiple, but I would assume that that is actually going to go up here in the coming weeks because the guidance showed that we're gonna have a revenue decline. We don't know how long that's gonna last and the margins are getting pressured.
Starting point is 00:20:46 So I don't think it's as good of a deal as it looks. It's kind of a show me story at this point. All right. If you're going to have traps, I do want to hear what companies are more attractive in this space. I'm going to just throw one out because I think, you know, one that I have been interested in recently and been adding to my position too is Zeta Global. Here's a company that's growing almost 50% year over year.
Starting point is 00:21:09 But John, Lou, what's on your radar in this area that is more attractive? I just said the walled garden. I mean, give me an Amazon just because I get a lot of things going on there. But that works for me. Yeah, I agree with Lou. I mean, go with the ones that are working for sure. Meta platforms will be at the top of my list. But Zeta is at the top of my watch list, the one that I need to do more research on.
Starting point is 00:21:34 Let's talk a little bit about Shift4. This is in the payment space. And some of these companies, I mean, PayPal, you can throw into this as well, have gone from being sort of market darlings to incredible value stocks. Forward price to earnings multiple is 7.4 for Shift4, but after they reported earnings earlier this week, shares fell almost 20%. So, John, I know this is one you follow a little bit, is Shift4 today a value or a value trap? Value all day long. And if you are a shift for shareholder as I am, you are used to the market just dogging on the earnings results that are consistently good. And this is a company growing at a very high
Starting point is 00:22:15 growth rate and doing so profitably, not really any dilution to shareholders to speak of. I think that this is a company that is going through a little bit of a transition as it kind of expands into more international markets. The financial technology sector is extremely not, it's not just unloved it's hated by investors right now so that's going against it but you look at the business itself this is one of the few companies in the space putting up growth and profits yeah but i mean i guess toast i don't know did this feel so commoditized to me and it doesn't feel like everyone could be a winner i'm not sure i really like any of these in the long run i don't know if this is a value trap as in there's anything really wrong with the business
Starting point is 00:22:56 but I don't find it a compelling investment. I'd buy Toast before I'd buy Shift4. Yeah, both companies that I have on my watch list, I have not bought either of them, but I actually like the case for both of those. All right, let's talk about one that has been in the talk of the market over the past year or so. That is Micron.
Starting point is 00:23:14 Shares are actually down 26% from their peak. But if you look at the forward price earnings multiple, it's still just six. So Lou, with everything going on in the memory market, it, is Micron a value today or a value trap? This to me is a good textbook example. If I ever have to go back and teach a college class about why there is no one financial metric that you should focus on and make all your decisions based on. Yes, that's a great PE, but this is a commoditized business and the commodity is red hot. So is that sustainable? I don't think it is.
Starting point is 00:23:47 I still think that this is a value trap. I know Micron, I actually sort of like Micron better than any of their competitors, because I think Micron has made more of an effort to differentiate itself and actually try to break out of the commodity trap. I'd rather be late on this one buying in, though, because it's still just I know the history and memory and I know how this story ends. It's not the first time that Micron has been valued this cheaply. In fact, I think in a lot of the past cycles, it has been valued at under 10. I know for a fact has been valued it under 10 times forward earnings many, many times in the past. I would say though, even though I agree directionally with Lou, I would say this is a value stock. And the reason being that I would
Starting point is 00:24:30 say it is a value stock is that I think that the red hot commoditization or the red hotness of the commodity right now is going to continue for several years more. I don't think that this is a short boom and bust like it's been in the past. I really think that there is so much to be done in the AI space, memory is still such at a, there's such a shortness of supply that I do believe that Micron is able to maintain its pricing power for, I would say the next three years at least. I've got a little quiz for you because the last time that memory was this hot was early in 2000, the year 2000, 26 years ago. John, do you know how far Micron stock fell from its peak in mid-2000 to its low,
Starting point is 00:25:21 and I've got that at late 2008. I would imagine it's over 90% because it took it, I think, 20 years to recover and hit recapture highs. Yeah, 98% drawdown, 98.2% to be exact. This is one of those markets that, yep, if you get it right, you can have a 10X stock like we've had over the past 18 months or so.
Starting point is 00:25:42 But man, if you get the timing wrong, this can fall apart really quickly. So this does make me a little bit nervous as an investor. All right, let's talk about Salesforce. This is another one of these companies that you would think has a lot of staying power, but has had trouble in the market. John, is Salesforce a value today or a value trap? It's a value trap, in my opinion, for a variety of reasons. But as you look at what this company is doing, I think that it is taking on a huge risk as it tries to change its business model from a per seat business model to a per task business model. When you integrate AI tooling into your product, but then you start charging per task,
Starting point is 00:26:25 you're really not looking too much different from just the direct AI tools that are available themselves because you're paying for tokens when it comes to a coding AI agent. So I don't think that that's a smart move. I think that there's a lot of aggressiveness here with high goodwill on the balance sheet. And yeah, it does look cheap, but I do wonder about this business long term. So for that reason, I'd say value trap. I'm probably more bullish on the business's survivability than John, but I'm not really compelled to buy in here. I'm pretty lukewarm on value value trap. We have decelerating growth. We have a lot of headwinds. And as John says, there's a lot of debt, just a lot of garbage on kind of on the balance sheet. I also my fantasy
Starting point is 00:27:11 see in this world is to see Slack disappear. And since that's, you know, so, so, so, I mean, I'm kind of rooting against them for that reason, but I, I, I feel like this is likely just going to be not get worse, but not get a lot better for a while. Lou, anything in this space that does intrigue you? Not particularly. I do think there is a path for, and it might be a company that John is going to talk about on the radar, but I do think that companies are going to emerge that can actually package and use AI to like actually sell AI value to enterprise customers. And I do think there's a path here. I don't think Salesforce is the best vehicle for that, but I do think that that's coming. This is going to be such an interesting case study in the
Starting point is 00:28:01 disruptors and the legacy companies, because it does seem like, you know, Salesforce, the trade desk. They are serving some of those bigger, older companies that don't necessarily have the disruption mentality of a lot of their competitors. All right, let's talk about another one that we have talked about a few times on this show, always seems to be a bit of a value. That is Adobe. John, Adobe's shares are currently trading for just 10 times earnings and the stock's in a 62% drawdown. Is this a value or a value trap? Oh, I hate to be negative Nancy here, but I'm going to go with value trap again. And the reason I'm going to go value trap is I am seeing concerns over growth. I am seeing concerns when it comes to margin.
Starting point is 00:28:46 We have ongoing questions in leadership. And then there's also the prioritization of the freemium model. This is what management is saying it wants to focus on, get these free users into the ecosystem. But to me, that's kind of moving the wrong direction. It signals to me that the space is becoming, the creative space is becoming more competitive due to just superior AI tooling that is out there. And so I do wonder about this business. I'm not ready to buy into Adobe at this valuation, even though it does look attractive. I took a flyer on this one, so I have to say value. I mean, I get the risks and I think they're real. I am still skeptical that the people really using Adobe are going to switch over anytime quickly, especially with Adobe working on their own AI
Starting point is 00:29:33 tools and trying to make their own tools. I get if AI tools get really, really good, there's going to be a lot of corporations saying we can save money here, but with tokens, will they? Stuff like that. I do think that there's a runway for Adobe to figure it out. The management turnover is an unfortunate time in giving everything that's going on. I mean, look, it's a person who's done a great job and it's been there decades. So I get it, but I, that's unfortunate, but I do, I have hope for this one. So I'll say value. All right. I want to quickly touch on one of the companies that has actually outperformed the market over a period of time and also outperformed its, its high profile competitor,
Starting point is 00:30:14 Tesla, that is General Motors trading for just six times forward earnings. Lou, I'm going to let you go first, because I know you're, you're always my negative voice in my head when it comes to automakers. But is this is this a value? Have they actually got this figured out with a reasonably good strategy and autonomy, too? They do. And it's still not good value to me because this is just such a cutthroat business. I mean, they are very good at what they do. But I am a long term focused and at best with an automaker, you trade cycles and I'm just not interested in doing it. Their margins stink even when things are going well. This is just like there is no more complex supply chain in the world not even any of my defense contracts anything like
Starting point is 00:30:57 that than the automakers this is just i this is just you're asking for trouble if you try and go long term in an automaker so every time it looks appealing it's this is just lucy in the football all over again yeah i i would agree with lou here is that maybe the stock kind of looks attractive but for me, the automakers, the businesses never look all that attractive to me. And so that is why I am disinclined to ever get into GM or others. I have looked at Ford in the past and just at the end of the day, I don't love the business. And so for that reason, even when the stock does kind of look attractively priced, I stay away. Now, of course, you point out this has been a stock that has been gaining. So I have been missing out here, but it's just not one that
Starting point is 00:31:45 I am attracted to because of the business. Always one of the toughest debates for an investor when you see a stock that looks cheap. But the question is, really, is it long term? Hopefully that is helpful in understanding some of these cheap looking stocks today. When we come back, we are going to get to the stocks on our radar. You're listening to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing. Where some see heroes and others see egos, Bloomberg sees the era of billionaire athletes. A fad to some, the future of money to others. We see crypto's trillion dollar swings, the end of jobs or the end of human struggle. We see the endless funds fueling the AI hype
Starting point is 00:32:30 while others follow the noise. We follow the money. Learn more at Bloomberg.com. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows The Motley Fool's editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes. I did want to touch on one of the bigger topics of the week, and that is Alphabet losing a bunch of its best researchers, people who have been there. Jeff Dean has been there for, I think,
Starting point is 00:33:10 it was 27 years. This is not the first time, John, they have lost some of their major talent, but this is now a trend over the past six months or so. They're showing really good numbers at GCP, but the existential question seems to be getting stronger for Alphabet. Is AI going to be disruptive if they lose their smartest people? What do you think? Yeah, I don't know what to make of some of these announcements of the departures from Google talent. With Jeff Dean And in particular, he's been at Alphabet so long, you have to imagine that he's accrued somewhat of a nest egg. And who can blame him for going out and starting his own company to pursue something at this point that he wants to pursue? I mean, that's what I would be tempted to do if I was in his position.
Starting point is 00:33:54 So it's hard to fault him too much for that. You look at some of these companies, too. I mean, Anthropic losing some talent, yes, but also gaining some talent from Google as well. So you have somebody such as John Jumper, who is a big part of Google's AlphaFold. And I really think that AlphaFold is a really important thing that Google is doing that we don't talk about enough, trying to figure out how proteins fold. And I think it's going to be revolutionary for medicine and more. But Jumper leaving Alphabet for Anthropic. So Anthropic is also gaining some talent.
Starting point is 00:34:26 And so, yeah, I mean, some they're losing talent, but they're also gaining talent because all the chairs keep or people keep jumping from one boat to the next. It makes sense because changes happen in this space so quickly that businesses and models kind of take new directions. And so it makes sense that as talent is looking at where its own ship is sailing, that as they change directions really quickly, that I'm going to jump on a different boat that's more in the direction I want to go. This is all just, I think, you know, parlor gossip. I don't think it's investable. I think I don't think it really tells us anything we don't know about the frontier models. We don't know that Google doesn't have a 50 percent stake in whatever Dean's doing next. And, you know, they did say that they have a stake in the company and then he's going to be running on GCP. OK. And, you know, so they're moving they're moving some of the more speculative
Starting point is 00:35:17 stuff off balance sheet. That's OK. I as an investor, it's just kind of go play your games. The other thing that's so interesting is Google was the company that, you know, the show Silicon Valley was kind of making fun of being the place that you just go to work and collect a giant paycheck. But now we're now we're really worried about, you know, losing specific people. So it does seem to be the market kind of talking out of both sides of its mouth. I think the thing that is undeniable with Alphabet and Google in particular is this is the company has more and better infrastructure than any of these other companies, whether you're talking about hyperscalers or the startups. You know, Anthropic is building its business on top of GCP.
Starting point is 00:35:57 So a lot for investors to digest, but I don't think Alphabet's going to go anywhere. All right, let's get to the stocks on our radar. John, I'm going to have you go first. What are you looking at this week? Yeah, I'm looking at ServiceNow. This is ticker symbol NOW. I am not a big fan of enterprise software stocks, generally speaking, but this is one that stands out in my opinion. This company is embedded across many important businesses around the world doing, you know, just some customer service management, some information technology service management, just some really boring stuff behind the scenes. But it is really embedded.
Starting point is 00:36:34 And this whole space, I believe, is poised to be disrupted due to AI agents. And NVIDIA CEO Jensen Wang saying that ServiceNow is actually at the forefront of deploying AI agents. If you've tried to build an AI agent on your own, you realize how difficult it is. If ServiceNow can make it easier for businesses, I think that gets adopted. The company is still growing at over a 20% growth rate. You look at the remaining performance obligations still growing at an over 20% growth rate as well. Trading at around 30 times forward earnings, not particularly cheap, but not unreasonable given that growth.
Starting point is 00:37:08 So ServiceNow is one that I'm looking at. All right, we need our thoughts from Dan Boyd behind the glass. Dan, what do you think about ServiceNow? Yeah, ServiceNow is one of these companies that just kind of does stuff in the background. And y'all, you know I love that kind of stuff. The companies that nobody knows quite what they do, but they must do something really important. It's got to be important, right? Especially the cost service now.
Starting point is 00:37:31 Now. All right, Lou, what are you looking at this week? Dan, I'm going to give you something where I do know what they do, but you can't see it every day. I'm looking at warehouse automation company Symbotic, ticker S-Y-M. Company beat on earnings and revenue this week, but Wall Street was disappointed by the guidance or kind of the lack of enthusiasm around the guidance. Stock traded down about 10%. Dan, I think the market has this one wrong. Symbiotic is methodically building its business. They added a really important new customer, Southern Glazer, a big beer and wine distributor in the quarter. Symbiotic is conservative in the way it books
Starting point is 00:38:05 future business. It's basically just bolting in one warehouse at a time on these big things, even if they're going to get 30 eventually. So that kind of understates the guidance sum. I think there's huge growth potential here. And Dan, I'm convinced there's a whole new generation of warehouse automation that's actually going to create a lot of value coming out of this AI wave. Symbiotic has a big role to play here. Stock's not cheap relative to current business, but I'm bullish that that current business is going to grow from here. And this one is really intriguing to me. Dan, what do you think about warehouse robotics? Okay. So I've never worked in a warehouse, but get this, I'm looking up Symbiotic and apparently
Starting point is 00:38:43 their robots can travel up to 25 miles an hour which again i've never worked in a warehouse so i don't i don't know how all that stuff works but it seems very scary to me to have a robot blasting around at 25 miles an hour while i'm trying to walk to the bathroom but that's why the bathroom's got to be separate the robot bathrooms are are separate so you're fine okay dan what's going on your watch list i'm going fast robots let's go symbolic All right. Congratulations to Lou. Thanks everybody. See you here next time.

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