Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing - Understanding Your Investing Behavior, with Tom Gardner and Morgan Housel
Episode Date: January 29, 2022Most investors are not as smart as they thought they were a year ago. Fortunately, they're also not as dumb as they feel today. Morgan Housel, author of the international best-selling book “The Psyc...hology of Money” joins Motley Fool co-founder Tom Gardner on to discuss investing behavior and why it is the most fundamental piece of your investing success. They also talk about how you can think about your cash position and how to mentally prepare for down markets. For a free copy of our investing “Starter Kit,” visit http://fool.com/starterkit and we’ll email it to you. Stocks: NFLX, SHOP Host: Tom Gardner Guest: Morgan Housel Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Most things in life have a short payback period. Like I always use the example of
if you go to the gym and do have a heavy workout you'll be sore tomorrow. There is
a quick indication that you did something beneficial. In the stock market
it just sometimes it doesn't work like that. You can be making great investing
decisions that you will look back on as the best decisions you ever made and you
might not get any feedback from the market that was a good decision for
years. I'm Chris Hill, and that was Morgan Housel, author of the international bestseller,
The Psychology of Money. On this episode, Morgan joins Motley Fool CEO Tom Gardner to discuss
investing behavior and why it's the most fundamental piece of your long-term financial
success. They discuss a range of topics, including how to think about your cash position and whether
you should change your investment approach if you had zero returns for five years.
Welcome to Motley Fool Money and the fourth and final class in our four-class series on
how to invest successfully the Motley Fool way. Now we close up with Morgan Housel,
the author of The Psychology of Money, with a conversation about mindset. And Morgan,
Maybe just a sentence or two from you to begin on the growing interest over the last decade
or 15 years in behavioral finance and what you think are the one or two biggest discoveries
that we've had as we've realized that you might have a great stock, you might even have
a great game plan, but you might have that Mike Tyson reality that everyone's got a game
plan until they get hit in the mouth.
The markets are obviously extremely volatile right now.
What do you see as the top findings in terms of the importance of thinking about our mindset,
the temperament that we bring to the public markets?
Well, Tom, I think you have to look at, for most of the 20th century, all of the advancements
in economics and in the investing field, at the academic standpoint, were around analytics
and data and formulas.
It was really a math-based approach to investing.
That was most of the 20th century.
And it really wasn't until the last 20 years or so that behavior came into it.
And just the realization that you can be the best stock picker in the world.
You can know exactly what companies are going to win, what industries are going to excel.
But if you panic when the market goes through a big bout of volatility, if you panic in 2008,
if you panic in 2020, if you panic over the last two months with tech stocks,
none of your stock picking skill matters. None of it matters.
And so, I think if you think about the pyramid of investing skills,
Behavior is at the bottom. And until you master behavior, nothing that sits above that pyramid
in terms of your intelligence, your analytical ability, none of it matters until you've really
mastered your mindset. So, it's not that behavior is all that matters. I just think that you have
to master it first before the other investing skills can pay off. I want to talk a little bit
about the historical performance of stocks with you to get that context for everyone. We know that
if you go back decades, you find that the S&P 500 delivers around 10% annualized returns,
and some periods worse than others, and some years much worse or much better than a 10%
annualized return. But the average is somewhere around 10%. So we'll just kind of agree to that
as our baseline for understanding investment returns. But now let's talk about what happens
in a one-year period, in a five-year period, in a 10-year period. Right now, we have the S&P 500
is down somewhere in the 10% range, and the NASDAQ is down somewhere in the 15% range.
That's what's been happening here over the last couple of weeks. How can we put that into context,
Morgan? A 10% annualized return, but what sort of variety might we get within any given year
or three-year period or 10-year period? Here's what always throws people off,
Tom. It's that, yes, the market returns on average 10% per year. But if you look at the data,
it almost never returns 10% per year. It'll either return 30% per year or negative 20%
per year. That is more common than actually returning 10% per year. Big bouts of extreme
gains punctuated by moments of big collapses, big declines. That's the long-term history of
the stock market. Now, even if you understand that and know the data, when you deal with it
in real time, it can be hard to accept. Because when you go through a five-year period, let's say
when the market goes up 25% per year, as we've come pretty close to doing over the last five
years. It gets very easy during that time to say, I'm smart. I'm a genius. This is how investing
works. You extrapolate those returns for the next 30 years, and it feels incredible.
And then it's equally easy to, when you're going through a period over the last couple of months
with tech stocks, where some of them are down 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, to have the inverse reaction and
think, I have no idea what I'm doing. This is not working. The market is broken. The economy is
broken. And neither of those two feelings tends to be accurate. It's somewhere in the middle.
Most investors right now were not as smart as they thought they were a year ago, and you're
not as dumb as you feel today. That's really how you should really feel about this. And all of that
just comes down to how that gets smoothed out over time. It's just over a very long period of time.
After you average out the incredible years with the terrible years, long-term investors in a
diversified S&P 500 index fund will probably earn 5% to 10% per year, which compounded over a couple
decades is extraordinary. But during that period, you're going to have so many gut-wrenching ups and
downs. And this is especially true if we're talking individual stocks. Netflix, which as you
and I record this, Tom, is down about 25%, is one of the best stocks you could possibly own over the
last 20 years. It made something like 500 times your money. Just a ridiculous return. But if you
look at what would happen during those 20 years, it's a mess. It's a total disaster. And there's
five separate times that Netflix has lost more than 40% of its value. It lost 70% of its value
once. It's constantly going through these declines where you lose 50% of your money,
something like that. And that's for the cherry-picked best stock you could have owned
over the last 25 years. And any other big successful company that you look at,
Monster Beverage, Apple even, all these companies have gone through enormous drawdowns. I think
that's just the cost of admission to investing over time. It can be hard to accept that in real
time because we are so hardwired to extrapolate whatever happened over the last couple of months
into the indefinite future. You've made it clear in your writing and in all of the presentations,
talks, and interviews that you've given that you're an index fund investor, and that's your
focus when you get to the equity markets. I'd like to hear first about what you expect
your journey to be like as an index fund investor. How often do you think you'll be down
10%? How often will you be down 30%? How often will you be down 50%? We often think, and I'd say
in our 25-plus-year history at The Motley Fool. We are really outcome-focused because
we believe if we can get everyone investing for life, the tough periods, they get washed out.
You look at that graph of the Dow Jones over the last 75 years, and it's just a mountain climb up.
The declines don't even really register on that chart. That's a lot of the approach of The Motley
Fool. But there's a tough journey there along the way. There are some really difficult times
to get through. We probably both agree that index investing is the simplest, most tax-efficient,
a very low-cost approach to getting exposure to the stock market. Still going to have volatility,
as you've just said, but as an index fund investor, how frequently do you expect to be down
and how much do you expect to be down by how often in the years and decades to come?
If I just look at the last 100 years of history and assume that that's a decent guideline of the next 100 years, which may or may not be the right way to do it, but let's just use that as the best guidepost that we have, I would expect my portfolio to be down 10% at least once a year, and down 20% every three years, and down 50% once or twice during my investing lifetime, something like that.
Now, particularly the big declines are usually triggered by a very specific event,
like a terrorist attack or a banking crisis, something like that, or the Great Depression,
a world war. That's what triggers the big ones. And just by their nature, of course,
those are impossible to predict. You can't say on average there's a world war every 30 years.
It just doesn't work like that. So, the big declines are harder to predict. And for me,
more than the percentage drawdown, I tend to think about how long could I go with negative
returns. And if you look at the S&P 500, there was a period in the 1970s to early 1980s where
adjusted for inflation, you went 15, 20 years without making any money. And that was true from
2000 to 2010. You didn't make any money adjusted for inflation in the stock market.
And that's normal. That's the historic norm during this period when you did so well in the stock
market, is to go a decade with no returns adjusted for inflation. And so, when you think that is the
norm. It's like so much of investing is just adjusting your expectations and becoming aware
that since that happened in the past, it's very likely to happen in the future. And when it
happens, it's going to be so tempting to think that the market is broken and this is never going
to end. That to me is the ultimate challenge of investing. And I'll tell you too, Tom, that one
of the reasons I am an index investor, we can go through some of the other reasons, but one of the
reasons is because since I don't have to focus on picking the right stocks in the right sector,
I can focus all of my effort, all of my bandwidth into trying to think about my mindset as an
investor and trying to put volatility into context. Think about the bigger picture.
Think about the long-term. That's 100% of what I do as investing because all the stock selection
is done and it's indexed. It's basic. I just buy one thing and I'm done.
That, to me, is where I spend virtually all of my time as an investor. It's just thinking about
risk and volatility and opportunity and time horizon in a different way with deeper context.
If you knew that for the next five years, you would get zero returns in your index funds,
would you change your approach? No, no. And I don't think I would.
Part of that is because you would have to ask, well, where are you going to put the money? And
if we are in a period where the market goes nowhere for five years, you're probably also
not going to earn any money in bonds or gold or anything else like that. So, in those periods,
when the stock market's going nowhere. There's probably not going to be that many
great alternatives. But the more important answer is, if I knew the stock market were not going to
go anywhere for five years, it's going to rebound eventually. And that is also something that you
have no idea when it's going to occur. So, the idea of, oh, I'll sell today,
then the question is, and then what? And then what are you going to do after that? Are you
going to wait until the market is fully recovered and is midway through the next bull market before
you buy back in because that's a terrible thing to do. So, the idea that you can get out and then
get back in at the right time, I think is doubly hard. It's exponentially harder to get back in.
So, rather than trying to time when to get out and when to get in, I just accept the lumps as
they come and accept the volatility as it comes. And that's just dealing with that and enduring
that is a way better approach in my view for me than trying to think or fool myself into thinking
that I could actually predict those things preemptively.
I'm going to restate what you said, Morgan, and I'm going to claim that it is one of the
most important principles of successful investing ever stated, and it happened in our fourth
classroom. That is, if an investor in the equities markets cannot withstand five years
of zero returns, they're not set up for success. Do you agree with that?
I definitely agree with that. Because I think that's not even like,
oh, we might be forecasting that this might happen. It's definitely going to happen eventually.
I don't know if that's starting now, or if that's starting last month, or starting
five years from now. I don't know when it will occur. But I plan to be an investor for the next
50 years, I hope. And during those 50 years, I know with nearly 100% certainty that there will
be five-year periods when I lose money. To me, it's just inevitable. It's almost like you live
in Florida and you say, are there going to be hurricanes? Yes, yes. I don't know when or how
powerful it's going to be, but yes, of course there will be. Rather than trying to think that
I can avoid those, it's just like, let's build a house that can withstand it. That's the better
way to go about it. Morgan, I'm going to ask you to speak to either a newcomer to the stock market
or a newcomer to the idea that you would not be troubled by five years of zero returns or even
maybe some marginal losses over a five-year term, that it wouldn't change your plan.
What I want you to do is I want you to speak to that new investor who's seeking short-term
validation. They're looking at their stock investments like they look at their favorite
sport teams and the games that are being played, every basketball game or every baseball pitch,
they're following it with rapt attention in the short term. I'm going to ask you to do your best
to persuade them, maybe not to turn that off, but to put that in its proper context. How could
you convince somebody who is going to come into the stock market or is already investing in stocks
and is seeking validation for good decision-making in the next week, the next month, or the next
six months at most? I think I would frame this as to say, look, just like anything else in life,
if you want a big reward, if you want a lot of success, you have to deserve it. You have to
earn it. That's true for everything in life, including the sports team where the players are
working out seven days a week for years on end to become as good as they are.
It's the same in the stock market. If you want big returns, you have to earn them.
You have to deserve them. And you have to give something up in order to achieve that big success
over time. Now, that shouldn't be scary because what you generally need to give up in the stock
market, the price you need to pay, is patience and endurance. That's what you need to give.
And now, we have been in a period for the last couple of years where, by and large,
a lot of investors did not need to pay that price. They could just go out and buy a handful
of tech stocks and watch them double in a year. And it felt great. And I think it's just important
to know that that is not necessarily normal. And it's not bad. It's not necessarily dangerous.
but there is always a price that needs to be paid in investing. And that bill will eventually come
due. And again, this is all fine. This is not saying you did anything wrong. This is not saying
people made a mistake. You just need to be willing to pay the price and they need to be adamant that
they deserve the returns that they earn over a very long period of time. The other thing I would
say is that most things in life have a short payback period. I always use the example of if
you go to the gym and do have a heavy workout, you'll be sore tomorrow. There is a quick indication
that you did something beneficial. In the stock market, sometimes it doesn't work like that.
You can be making great investing decisions that you will look back on as the best decisions you
ever made, and you might not get any feedback from the market that that was a good decision
for years and years. One example is Shopify, which I know, I'm pretty sure you invested
or you recommended, Tom, in 2016. I might be getting some of these details wrong, but
if memory serves, after you recommended it, it didn't do anything for like a year,
maybe two years, and then it just exploded. And I think that is much closer to normal
to how these work. And in that situation, you, Tom, and the investors who followed that
recommendation did put in a price. They paid a price. They do deserve those rewards because
they put up with a year or two of getting nothing out of it. So, I think that over the very long
period of time, all the big returns have to be earned. And you're going to pay for that price.
You're going to earn that by putting up with uncertainty and unknowns and periods of no
returns. If you were coaching somebody in their investing life, or if you were advising an entire
population of investors, and you had one of two outcomes to pick for their first year as an
investor, and this was the only factor you could go on, and you would base whether or not they
would succeed over the long term on this single factor. Group one got a 25% gain in their first
year. Group two got a 25% loss in their first year. Who do you think has a better chance of
succeeding for the rest of their life as an investor? Both have challenges, but which would
you prefer and why? See, my knee jerk was going to say group two. There's this quote that I like
from Bill Miller, great legendary investor who says, look, if you start investing and you have
a big gain, that's actually a bad beginning because it can influence your view into thinking
like, you really know what you're doing, and that this is how investing works, and you
extrapolate that forever, and that's dangerous.
I don't know if I agree with that.
There's actually a lot of evidence, too, that if people start investing and they lose a
lot of money, they'll be scared out of it for life.
The best example of this that's so well-documented among academics is the generation who grew
up during the Great Depression.
By and large, that generation did not invest for the rest of their life.
They put their money under mattresses or bought government bonds because they were so scarred
by what happened.
I think that is more dangerous than the investor who begins their investing career
with inflated expectations. If you have inflated expectations, maybe you're going to be disappointed,
but you're probably going to remain an investor because you remember how great it felt to make
that much money. But if you start investing with this idea of, oh, investing is just where you go
to lose your money, you might not ever come back in. Since all investing success is really going to
hinge on, can you just stay invested for a long period of time? Can you just remain playing in
the game? The people who have inflated expectations but can remain in the game
are probably going to do better than the people who never played the game to begin with.
Great. Thank you for taking that extreme hypothetical. Now, I'm going to narrow it.
Which of these two populations would you bet on? The one that got a 25% return in their first year
or the one that got a 5% return in their first year? 5%. Because I do think there are people who
will earn a 25% return in the first year. And then in the next year, maybe they lose money,
maybe it goes up 5%. And the degree to which they are disconnected from reality, the degree to which
their expectations are inflated, will either cause them to take much more risk. They'll say,
oh, I only earned 5% last year. I need to go get some margin loans. I need to go buy more penny
stocks. That can lead to a really regrettable outcome. Or there's a lot of people who will,
after gaining 25%, when you earn it that fast, those portfolios tend to be unstable. When the
gains come very quickly, when the gains aren't earned, so to speak, those can be undone very
quickly. And that short loss might also, to a certain subset of people, scare them off for a
long period of time. So, there were a lot of people who, during the dot-com bust in the late
90s, early 2000s, were scared out of the market for years, if not ever. Or a lot of those people
didn't come back into the market until the market had rebounded substantially and the biggest gains
were already behind them. I'm thinking it's almost a quotable from a philosopher like Seneca
applied to this scenario might be, for my friends, I wish a 5% first-year return. For my enemies,
I wish a 25% first-year return. You should make a poster of that in the Motley Fool offices and
quote it from Seneca. That would be good. I like it. Well, we're always looking for the
unconventional thinking, and we always get it from you, Morgan. Now, I want to talk
just directly about anxiety and how to address it. I would say matching anxiety up with volatility
of pricing. Whether you're investing in the beginning of your career and you encounter
volatility, or obviously, the more years and decades you have under your belt, the more you
know how markets work, but certainly for investors that are in the later stages, in their 70s,
in their 80s, to see a steep decline. How would you address anxiety before the volatility? How
would you address it during the volatility? One thing that's the hardest thing about this
with investing is that it's thinking about what it's going to feel like to be in a market crash
preemptively, thinking about like, oh, in the future, how is this going to feel? It's so
different from when it actually happens. Some of that is because the details of what makes the
market decline are unknowable. So, in 2019, if I said, Tom, how would you feel if the market fell
30%? You and everyone else may have said, oh, that would be an opportunity to buy, which was
the right mindset. But then in March of 2020, the market does fall 30%. But it's falling 30%
because there's a virus that might kill you and your children and the school is closed and the
company is closed, the offices are closed, the restaurants are closed. And in that context,
then all of a sudden, maybe the world doesn't look like a great buying opportunity anymore.
And so, without knowing the context of why the market drops, it's really difficult to know how
you're going to feel when it does drop. So, for me, this is a lot of why I tend to have a fairly,
it's not crazy conservative, but I tend to have more cash as a percentage of my portfolio,
percentage of my net worth than some other investors. And part of that is because there's
this great quote from Nassim Taleb, who wrote The Black Swan. And he says, it is much easier to
measure how fragile something is than it is to predict the occurrence of what might damage that
thing. Like, I have no idea what the next recession is going to be, what the next bear market is
going to be triggered by. But I can look at someone's net worth and their asset allocation
and be like, oh, this is fragile. You got a lot of debt and you're on margin and you have no cash.
I don't know what the next recession is going to be, but whatever it is, it's going to hurt you.
And so, I think when you can measure fragility, but you can't measure shocks, I just try to focus
on, is my net worth durable? Is it reasonably durable? Do I have a good margin of safety? Do
I have enough liquidity, enough cash? Do I have enough room for error? And that's all that I can
focus on. I don't spend any time trying to predict what's going to cause the next recession because
I don't think anyone can do that. No one in 2019 could have known that a virus originating in China
was going to shut the world economy down for going on two years now. No one could have known that.
So, rather than predicting what's next, I try to focus on what I can control, which is the
stability of my net worth, the endurance of my net worth. And that's it. And once you accept that,
that that's all that I can do, I think it takes a lot of the anxiety out. But I say that with
the asterisk of, I was scared in March of 2020. I didn't sell. But I remember thinking about the
global economy and having phone calls with some of my smartest friends and shaking my head and
going, this is bad. This is really, really bad. So, even if you do keep your head on straight,
these things are not fun to deal with. But again, that's the cost of admission,
is dealing with that uncertainty and accepting that uncertainty over time.
It's different for everyone, of course. But I want the blended average of all stock investors,
those who've been investing for 72 hours, those who've been investing for 72 years,
those who are highly emotional in volatile situations, those who have extreme composure,
and every other factor you can blend as meaningful in providing this answer. Take all stock investors
and tell me what their average cash position should be as a percentage of their total portfolio.
See, this is a trick question, because my answer would be, well, it depends. Look,
I think for most investors, I keep coming back to, it depends, I want to know what gets
them beyond fragility for you. The average cash position, not knowing when the next recession
is going to come, having a good sense of the cycles of markets and the frequency with which
you get a 10% decline, a 20%, a 40% decline. So, blend all of those together, and what's a single
midpoint cash position you recommend? Here's how I'd frame this. The average
financial advisor will probably tell you that you need three to six months of cash in your
emergency fund. Enough cash to cover your living expenses for three to six months.
That makes sense. And for a lot of people, that's a big number to save to.
During the 2008 financial crisis and the aftermath of that, the average duration of
unemployment was 10 months. So, your financial advisor says, hey, you have three to six months,
you're doing great. And then the average unemployment is 10 months. So, there can be
a big gap between what seems right and what actually happens in the real world. So, I think
for most people, six to 12 months of living expenses, that seems extreme. And for a lot of
people, they say, that's a lot of money for me to save. But if you look at what has happened even in
recent history, it's not extreme in the slightest. The other statistic I think about is that in March
of 2020, the average restaurant in America had enough cash on the books to survive for 12 days.
And then these restaurants were shutting down for months. And a lot of them either went out
of business or they needed the government stimulus packages to stay around. So there again, there's
just a big gap between what seems like, oh, I've got a little cushion. And then the shock that
exists in the real world and reality is totally different. So one way to think about this too is
that all the big shocks in markets and the economy are unknown. 9-11, Lehman Brothers going bankrupt,
COVID-19. The common denominator is you could not predict them before they occurred.
And therefore, if you are thinking about your cash position, and you are only thinking about
the risks that make sense to you and that you can foresee and that are predictable, by definition,
you are missing all the risks that you cannot see coming. And those are the ones that always
do the most damage. So, it always makes sense to have a little bit more cash than seems reasonable
to you. That's when you know you are preparing for the risks that you cannot foresee. You're
nailing me down for a specific number. I think probably six to 12 months for most people
is closer to realistic. I like it. I'm going to go at a different angle one more because we're
coming to the close of our time in this class, but I want to make sure that we hear this answer
from you as well. I like answer number one, six to 12 months emergency fund. But what about for
you. I'm assuming your cash position is beyond a six to 12 months. It's more maybe to, as the great
investor at The Motley Fool, Jeff Fisher, says, to set your portfolio up so that you can take
advantage of downturns, so that they aren't emotionally crippling. They are almost liberating.
You're actually excited. So, answer one, I like six to 12 months emergency fund. Now, think about
a portfolio that's beyond that, but you want to help that person's mindset move beyond fragility,
what would you say the average cash position should be for an equity investor there?
I'll tell you what I do with my personal money, which is that my cash balance,
rather than thinking about it as a percentage of my net worth portfolio, I just think about it in
dollar terms. I want X dollars of cash, and I always want X dollars. Once I get there,
I stopped contributing to cash. And then everything else goes to stocks. So, because the market has
risen and because that cash balance has already been fulfilled, it's a dwindling percentage of
the total pot, if that makes sense. That's how I think about it. And during a big market decline,
I did this in April 2020 or maybe late March 2020, you can start putting some in. Now,
it's always easier preemptively to say, oh, I'm going to go all in. Because in March of 2020,
like a lot of other people, I did not know what was going to happen to the global economy.
So, I put some in, but not as much as I wish I could have in hindsight. That's always how it's
going to be. But I don't think it's bad. Look at Berkshire Hathaway right now, Warren Buffett's
company, that has $150 billion of cash, which even as a percentage of its total assets is
probably something like 30%. It's not crazy. I think if you look at a lot of the world's
greatest investors. They have gone through periods when 30% to 50% of their portfolio was cash.
That's not an exaggeration. Definitely 20%, 30%, sometimes 50%. And the reason they do that is
because they know that at some point in the future, they don't know when, but at some point
over the subsequent five or 10 years, there's going to be a washout. And during that washout,
if you can have a lot of cash when everyone else is desperate to sell, those are where the
opportunities that will change your lifetime returns come from. So, it always seems like
when you're holding this cash, you're like, oh, I'm earning a low return. It's only paying half
a percent. But then when the market washes out and you can buy stocks for 70% less than they
cost a year before, that's when the return on that cash comes from. You earn the return on
that cash balance once every five or 10 years, rather than being paid monthly in the interest
rate in your savings account. You earn it in big chunks at some unknown time in the future.
Two remaining questions. And in this question, I'm going to buy you a little bit of time by
answering it myself as well. The penultimate question is that I would like you, I'll go first,
I would like you to give three pieces of advice that you believe could be most beneficial to
somebody investing in the stock market. My three will be, only invest capital that you will keep
invested for five years or more. That's number one. Number two, buy 25 or more companies as the
base of your investment portfolio. And No. 3, maintain an average of a 10% cash position,
so that in down markets, you could go a little bit lower than that, and in up markets, you
might build that cash position up. So, those would be my three. Five-plus years,
25-plus investments, and an average throughout your life of around a 10% cash position.
What are your three? You were wise to go first, because those
would probably be my three as well, so now I have to reach for some different ones.
but I would say the first is know yourself and understand that your past behavior is a pretty
good indication of your future behavior. So if you panicked and sold during various bear markets in
the past, you're probably going to do that again in the future. And that's okay. Just accept that
that's who you are. And maybe you need a little bit less aggressive asset allocation. That's the
first one. The second one is just a plea for humility and just a plea to observe that the
biggest economic shocks of the last 20 years, which were 9-11, Lehman Brothers going bankrupt
and COVID, were unforeseeable. And that's going to be the case over the next 20 years. The smartest,
the best economists with the best information have no idea what's going to cause the next recession.
I can say that with confidence because it's always been true. I think it will always been true. So,
that plea for humility. The second thing is that, or the third thing I should say,
is focus on what you can control. Because you have no control what the market's going to do next or
what the economy is going to do next. The only thing you can control in investing is your savings
rate and your behavior. That's what you have control over. And that's actually pretty optimistic
if you realize that those two things, like how much you save and what your behavior is,
matter more than anything else to your lifetime investing success. So, there's so much focus
among investors on like, oh, what the market do today? What the market do this year?
And you have no control over that stuff. So, spend more of your time focusing on what the
levers that you can actually pull, the knobs you can actually twist. Those are my three.
Thank you. We're going to close out this fourth and final class
in Motley Fool Money. We began with David Gardner talking about why and how to invest. Amanda Kish
got us a financial game plan organized. Eyal Kusner laid out the basic data that we need to know to
set ourselves up for long-term success. Morgan Housel has given us a combination of the history
of market performance and how to establish a mindset that will help us succeed for the
long-term, Morgan, I'd like you to close it all out with a reminder to us about the purpose,
the value of money, what money represents in our lives, and how we should think about using it as
a tool, how it could use us if we don't set up a good philosophical approach to the role that
money plays in our lives. So how do you think about that in your life, and what would you
suggest to the rest of us? It sounds trivial, but I think it's easy to forget that the purpose of
money is to give yourself a better life. It's not to maximize your returns. It's not to make
the spreadsheets happy. It's not to earn better returns than your neighbor. It's to give you and
your family a better, happier life. And what's important about that is what's going to make me
happy, Tom, might be different from what makes you happy. We're all very different. We all have
different lives, different family structures, different risk tolerances, different goals,
different aspirations. So you really just have to become more introspective and figure out what you
want. And rather than trying to make all the numbers add up, make the spreadsheets add up
perfectly, what makes you happy? Just do that. Again, it sounds trivial, but I think it's so
easy to forget and overlook that that's what we're all trying to do here. It's just use whatever
resources we have and invest our money in a way that gives us a better life.
Morgan Housel, the author of the bestseller and very highly rated and regarded book,
The Psychology of Money. Thank you so much, Morgan, for being here. And to all of our full
listeners, thank you for attending these four classes. Please let us know. You can drop me a
note in my Twitter account, what the experience was like for you with these four class periods,
because if we liked it, we can continue it and explore other concepts like this. But I want you
to know how much I've learned in these four classes and how thankful I am. It turns out,
And the data shows that we learn at one rate when we sit quietly and listen to a lecture.
We learn at a much higher rate when we are interactive.
It's a conversation.
We take notes.
We're active.
But we learn at the highest rate when we try to teach.
And that's what we attempted to do in these four class periods.
So you helped me, full listeners around the world, learn at a much faster rate over these
last four 30-minute class periods.
And again, Morgan and Eyal and Amanda and David, thank you all for your participation as great teachers in this experience.
And Morgan, I'm sure we'll see you again soon.
And thank you so much for being a part of this episode.
Thanks, Tom.
Fool on.
That's all for today.
But coming up tomorrow, my conversation with bestselling author Dan Pink about his new book, The Power of Regret.
As always, people on the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about, and
The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks
based solely on what you hear. I'm Chris Hill, thanks for listening, we'll see you tomorrow.
