Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing - Your “Portfolio Wrapped”
Episode Date: December 6, 2024Some stocks defy gravity, others drive Warren Buffett to sell in less than a year. We wade through them all and put our own twist on Spotify’s annual Wrapped release. (00:14) Jason Moser and Asi...t Sharma discuss: - Ulta leveling out, and why a cheap valuation isn’t enough to keep Warren Buffett and Berkshire interested. - Docusign’s strong 2024 and how Veeva Systems is seemingly back on track with their AI efforts. - What reinvention Airbnb might be scheming up for 2025. - Spotify’s 2024 Wrapped and Jason and Asit’s “Portfolio Wrapped” for this year. (19:03) Ricky Mulvey and Mary Long dig into the early holiday box office numbers for Wicked and offer up some stocks inspired by L. Frank Baum and the world of Oz. (33:51) Jason and Asit break down two stocks on their radar: Block and Wingstop. Stocks discussed: ULTA, VEEV, DOCU, ABNB, SQ, WING Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Asit Sharma, Jason Moser, Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long Engineers: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
we've got some musical stocks and musical numbers this week's monthly full money radio show starts
now everybody needs money that's why they call it money
From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money.
It's the Motley Fool Money radio show. I'm Dylan Lewis. Joining me over the airwaves,
Motley Fool Senior Analysts Jason Moser and Asit Sharma. Fools, great to have you both here.
Nice to be here.
We've got some wicked stocks for moviegoers this holiday season,
our portfolios unwrapped, and of course, stocks on our radar. We are going to start out, though,
with some end-of-week earnings, and we're going to start in the cosmetics department.
2024 has not exactly been a great year for Ulta Beauty, but Asit, based on the earnings
report this week, it looks like things might be getting a little bit rosier.
Well, Dylan, I think investors were just relieved that the numbers didn't decline further.
I mean, we'd had a small net sales increase here of 1.7%, not a lot on the top line.
And earnings per share came in at $5.14, so a little bit above what some analysts were
expecting.
I want to note here that comparable sales, so this is the sales versus the prior year
quarter, those only increased by 0.6%, which makes sense in an economy where people are
pulling back a little bit on their spends.
But the stock is up today and I think this is partly because investors like what happened
below that top line. I think Ulta managed the quarter pretty well. When you look at gross
profit, it grew just a little bit, they controlled shrink, so that's inventory loss that can come
from mishandling inventory and let's admit it in this day and age, some inventory theft. That
helped the line right below the sales. Then on overhead costs, one of the things that stood out
to me is that management got less money in terms of their incentive compensation because they didn't
hit their targets. The company did a good job managing its selling general and administrative
expenses. Overall, you have a picture of a company that's doing what it needs to do in this type of
environment, which is run a tight ship, and frankly, lastly, opening new stores. They
opened 26 net new stores during the quarter versus 12 stores in the comparable period
last year. I think this is an execution-based quarter, and Wall Street and other investors
were relieved to see that. One investor that people are paying
attention to in particular when it comes to Ulta is Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway.
Jason, Ulta was a Berkshire stock for about 20 minutes. They built up a stake about a quarter ago.
Then we found out recently that they have sold out the majority of that position.
That is highly unusual behavior for Buffett and his team.
That is. That is very unusual. I was surprised to see that.
When we thought about this purchase from the beginning, it seemed like it was right up
their alley in the vein of a value investment. It's a stock that was trading at a pretty
depressed multiple. I think for a lot of reasons that Asit just told us about there, growth
has really hit a wall and they are having to recover from that pandemic boom that they
witnessed. I understand maybe, given the numbers that we're seeing today, if they feel like
the thesis really wasn't playing out the way they thought it would. Maybe they saw an attractive
valuation with some attractive growth prospects going forward. If only one of those two things
is coming true, then I guess it makes sense that they decided to go ahead and move on.
You look at the stock today with the market's reaction to the quarter, you've got it now
valued at close to 19 times full-year earnings estimates. So, definitely, the picture has
improved from the market's perspective, and I guess he's probably wishing he was able
to still be on board today, but so it goes in the world of investing.
I never thought I'd say it, but Warren Buffett, you've got to think long-term, man.
You can't be in and out on these things quarter to quarter.
One of these days, he'll learn.
A monster day at the end of the week for e-signature company DocuSign.
shares up 20% on earnings that actually struck a pretty similar tone to what we saw from Ulta, Jason.
Ahead of estimates, management saying the bar for full-year results is also going to
be a little bit higher, too. Yeah, this was a good quarter.
There are signs that things are starting to pick back up for DocuSign's business.
Remember, there was a leadership change here not all that long ago.
They outperformed guidance that they set last quarter across the board, and so that's encouraging as well.
they saw the number of large customers, which are spending over $300,000 annually with the
business. That increased both year over year and quarter over quarter. That number came in at 1,075
this quarter versus 1,066 from just a quarter ago. So very encouraging there that they're
bringing more customers in. Those customers are spending more. And all of the metrics that matter
really reflect a business that is starting to, I think, see better days. Total revenue was up 8%.
percent uh subscription revenue up eight percent saw billings up nine percent dollar net retention
rate increased to 100 percent uh coming off of the of its low of 98 from from uh quarter four
fiscal 2024. uh so all in all it does feel like they've got this business going back in the right
direction guiding for around 760 million dollars in revenue at the midpoint here for this current
quarter that would represent close to seven percent growth from a year ago yeah jason i
I really like the comeback that DocuSign has made in the past couple of years.
I think they're executing well.
The one question I have that's overhanging all of this,
newish management really wants to bring the company back to its basics,
and they've succeeded in doing that,
being more of this e-signature company with some add-ons
before they were trying to be a total agreement platform,
and that just didn't work out.
But I do wonder, over time, and we'll watch this,
the effect and threat of Adobe,
which is its rival competitor in the space, and very big competitor, we should say,
if that ultimately provides sort of a crimp on the ability of DocuSign to grow that top line.
Something I'm mindful of looking at DocuSign, and maybe a little bit surprised by,
even though I'm a shareholder, shares the business up 75% year-to-date.
This is one that I have kind of radically adjusted my expectations down on,
because I've gone through the highs and lows.
I'm a shareholder from 2018 and 2019 pre-pandemic,
but I've been on the rollercoaster ride. At this point, Jason, where does this stock sit
for you in terms of expectations and your excitement about building to a position or
adding to a position? I think that's fair. I'm in the same boat
you are. I've owned it for about that same period of time. It's obviously been a good performer.
I think that stretch during the pandemic warped all of our expectations. We saw so many things
happened and saw so many of these companies just fly to the moon. And that, I think,
that raised our expectations overall, perhaps unreasonably so. And I don't think my expectations
were quite that high pre-pandemic when I initially purchased the stock. So I'm kind of having to
reset my expectations as well. It's a good business. I continue to own it and I have no
plans of unloading it. But yeah, I think that keeping those expectations in check, if this
is a business that can grow that top line around 10% annually, I think that's a good thing. And
The stock will reflect that over time, but it will take some time.
Alright, wrapping us up on the earnings beat, healthcare cloud company Viva Systems,
also in the green post-earnings this week.
This is one that is widely recommended in the Fool universe, but not exactly a household name.
I want to dig into the earnings results, Asit, but I think first, we probably need to provide
a little bit of an explanation. Healthcare cloud company, unpack that one for me.
Right. What does that mean?
Well, in this context, Dylan, it means that Viva provides a lot of stuff for pharmaceutical
companies and biotechs to run their business. Now, the thing they're known for is customer
relationship management. So they help pharmaceutical teams market their products,
engage in developing promotional materials, but they also have a regulatory side. This is called
Viva Development Cloud. So that helps companies manage clinical trials. It helps them comply with
regulatory requirements, et cetera. So you can think of this as sort of a toolkit to run your
pharmaceutical or biopharma business. Let's dig a little bit into the results
that they posted. Market obviously liked them. What did you see?
Yeah, I thought this was very healthy. I mean, subscription services, which is the biggest part
of the company's top line, increased about 17% year over year. They came in with great
operating income. That jumped 41% year over year. I think for me, what stood out, Dylan,
was the fact that this transition that Viva has been undergoing for a few years now to
break away from Salesforce.com and offer its own solution, which is called Vault CRM,
is really succeeding with its major customers. There was some trepidation in the marketplace
in past quarters that maybe some big customers wouldn't come on board with this new solution,
but now Viva has a lot of major pharmaceuticals all to itself. It's not sharing that revenue
with Salesforce.com anymore. And it looks like the transition, which is really going to occur
mostly in 2025 and beyond, is going well. The other thing that's notable here is that
we were a little negative about Viva's CEO, Peter Gassner, maybe about a year and a half ago when
he was asked by analysts how they were going to compete in terms of generative AI. And he didn't
have a great answer, but I have seen them come on board with some great new solutions. They've got
a CRM bot. They've got overall gen AI assistant. And the most interesting thing I think is they've
got this large language model, which helps with medical, legal, and regulatory review. So the bot
can tell you if you're about to put some content in your promotional materials that isn't kosher
with the FDA. So I think this is pretty good. They've come very far away in a short amount of
time to get on board with what's now table stakes in the software industry with that strong gen AI
offering. We're in the age of bots. Everyone's got to get on board. You need them. I need one
myself. We all do. All right. Coming up after the break, we've got a special twist on an annual
favorite, and we're checking in on why the future might be so bright for Airbnb. Stay right here.
This is Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Dylan Lewis,
here on air with Jason Moser and Asit Sharma. A big week for events in the investing world.
New York Times had its dealbook summit in New York. Wired had its big interview event in San
Francisco. All to say, a lot of interesting CEO soundbites out this week, including Airbnb CEO
Brian Chesky saying that the upcoming year will be, quote, one of the biggest reinventions of a
company in recent memory. Jason, what should investors be expecting from Airbnb next year?
Well, he's definitely playing his cards close to the vest here.
But you do have some ideas.
It was interesting, you know, he had talked about in the most recent quarterly call
about how they plan to grow this business beyond being just a place where you can book rooms, right?
He said for the last 17 years, basically just sold one thing, which is vacation rentals, right?
Airbnb homes by the night.
But there are a number of sort of complementary ways that they can go with that in order to expand this business.
And so the plan is, and he said this as well, he said, what I expect is every year now for the coming years is to launch one to two businesses that will generate $1 billion or more of revenue per year.
And I think, you know, that makes a lot of sense. They're really diving more into the experiences side, which is clearly very complimentary, maybe taking a little bit of a page from something like a TripAdvisor book there. I think that one of the great qualities of Airbnb as a business is just the size of its network, right? That's one of the reasons why we like it so much here at The Fool is the size of the network and the power, those network effects that come from that.
But then also, you know, and he said this, if you could bet on one company to expand internationally, then he says he thinks it would be a global travel network.
That makes a lot of sense.
And so I think that that's the direction that they're headed, right?
They're trying to basically turn Airbnb into a global travel network and offer travelers everything really under one roof.
As you noted, no shortage of adjacent markets for a company like Airbnb.
Experiences are a big one, but you think about it.
We have travel booking.
you have accommodations for while you're traveling at your own home, things like pet care,
whatever it might be. Asit, as you're trying to size up some of the optionality and some of the
potential futures for a company like Airbnb, what are you paying attention to?
I'm paying attention to the tech side of the business, Dylan. And I think what Jason highlights
is so important here. As investors, we tend to over-index on the single business model we're
familiar with. Is Airbnb going to have supply in different cities? Will it be able to meet demand?
But they pay so much attention to the tech on their platform, it really opens it up for them
to then have these lateral revenue streams like Experiences because they've already built the
infrastructure. And I think this is going to show or be demonstrated by management to be
one of the virtues of the platform that most investors really don't have on their radar screens.
We got another update from another Fool favorite, Spotify. Their annual wrapped hit users this week.
This is the User Guide to the User Itself, a look at all of the data on listening activity
that users have had over the past year.
Jason, we are going to have a little bit of fun with this, but I want to start with the
listening that you were doing in 2024.
What's something that was in your ears this year?
Well, I probably sound like a broken record.
Anybody who knows me knows that I'm a big widespread panic fan, have been for many,
many years.
And it's neat, because you get old music, but it's new music, right?
They released these concerts, these shows that played in the past, and they're soundboard
recordings that sound really good.
And so, they just put out this one from the Warfield Theater in San Francisco on July
4th, 2000.
It was night four of a four-night run.
So, that's what we call in the business a heater.
It's really good.
I've got that thing on repeat.
Asit, what was top of the charts for you in Spotify?
So top of charts for me is a Turkish singer named Melis Fis. I'm going to spell that M-E-L-I-S,
last name F-I-S. She's a great young artist. Check it out if you have time. One that came on my list
out of my top five, who was probably the number one spot last year, is an Italian pop diva. Her
name is Nina Zilli. And this year she had, well, she recorded a number of years ago, but I discovered
it this year. A great cover of You Can't Hurry, Love. So danceable. I got so much exercise
whenever this would come across my Spotify and I would play it and repeat it. I just
couldn't help dancing. So, check that out, L'Amour et Vera by Nina Zilli.
Wow! I think you have slightly more sophisticated taste than me.
I didn't want to go through my lowbrow stuff. It would be too embarrassing, maybe next week.
We are a money and investing show. In addition to the music recommendations,
I want to dig into our own version of Wrapped, and that is our portfolio Wrapped for 2024.
Listeners, I asked Jason and Asit to dig into their brokerage accounts and look at two things,
their heavy rotation, the most added to position for the year, and a discovery pick,
a company that was new to their portfolio this year. Jason, you're up first. What was
your heavy rotation and discovery pick? Well, surprise, surprise, surprise, Dylan,
it's Axon Enterprise. We've talked about Axon before here on the show. I know it's a very
popular stock in our universe. I had opened up a position a while back, added to it over the course
of the year, added to a winner, like David Gardner says. It's really fun to do that.
What about over on the discovery side? Yeah, actually, just introduced two new
stocks to my portfolio this year. Not many, but Prologis is one. Matty Argersinger talks about
this one a lot. Strong conviction here in our universe. I like the dividend, the focus on
warehouses and distribution, along with the burgeoning data center opportunity. And then
also, I added Viva, believe it or not. We just talked about it, right? Strong global demand for
this cloud-based solutions company in life sciences. In the most recent quarter, you saw
strong growth, and it looks poised to continue. So, feeling good about those two.
Awesome. You were deep tracks when it came to the music side of things. Are you also going to
be deep tracks when it comes to the companies that entered your portfolio and the ones that
you were buying this year? A little bit here, Dylan. And just as I would advise people not to
follow me wholeheartedly into my musical taste, same with these. So, Heavy Rotation for me was
a bit of a speculative company, which is Upstart Holdings. Many people know this company. It's an
artificial intelligence-based platform lender. And it was down and out during the peak of the
interest rate cycle. I did some cash flow analysis and decided, look, they'll stick around. And I
think perhaps they've got some destiny here that could be a little better. So I was buying steadily
through the year. And as the year wore on, they did announce some more things to shore up their
capital base. I think they'll perform well as interest rates decrease. And I think they've
made it through a really tough interest rate cycle. So be careful with that one. You can
nibble on it. And in terms of a new company on my playlist, Jason's heard me talk about this,
but I added GE Aerospace. It's a company with a wonderful razor and blades model. They make these
advanced jet airplanes engines, but they also sell a heck of a lot of parts and provide a lot
of service. And that's really where the bulk of their profits come from. So a solid, interesting
play symbol GE. What I like there is two different
versions of buying in bits. Axon, a company on its way up. Asit, you being a little bit
more opportunistic with Upstart as the market gives you chances. Guys, we are going to come
back to you in a little bit, but the stock ideas are going to continue. Up next, we've
got some stocks based on the musical Wicked. Stay right here, you're listening to Motley Fool Money.
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.
I'm Dylan Lewis.
Wicked first debuted on Broadway more than 20 years ago.
This holiday season, it came to a new generation of fans
and returned to many longtime ones on the silver screen.
This week, my podcast co-hosts, Ricky Mulvey and Mary Long,
dug into the early holiday box office numbers for the book,
turned musical, turned movie, and offered up some Wicked-inspired stocks.
First off, let's kind of zoom out and look at how Wicked actually did over this weekend.
Because anticipation is one thing, and this movie certainly had it.
But did that anticipation actually translate into people getting to the theater to see it?
So let's break out two things. One is the overall box office, and then also Wicked.
We're here because, you know, we're fans of Wicked.
Even though Moana 2 kind of ruled the day for a Thanksgiving weekend,
Wicked 2 is still helping out a lot.
So it made about $373 million since its release.
That was on a budget of $150 million.
We don't know how much marketing kind of plays into that.
There's been a lot of Wicked ads out there.
But over Thanksgiving, movie theaters, they might be back.
This was the biggest weekend for theaters in North America ever.
$100 million more than 2018.
However, people are only going for these big events.
And that included Wicked, Moana 2, and Gladiator 2 over this weekend.
you're a fan of movies I know you saw Wicked did you all see Gladiator 2 I did not see Gladiator 2
I did not see Moana 2 I did see Wicked and I really liked it like I was ready I was ready
to be a hater I'll be real honest I thought it was a half hour too long but I thought it was
excellent I loved the music was great I thought it was really interesting how they brought in these
very large physical sets and while they did use CGI in the movie I liked that there was a big
physical element of it that made it sort of wondrous and feel more real how about you I
I totally agree with you. I was also ready to be a hater. I'm a massive fan of Wicked the musical.
I grew up doing theater and Wicked came out when I was really young and it just totally cemented
a love of theater within me. So I was always going to see this movie, but I didn't have
super high expectations because I didn't know that anything could really hold up to the actual
stage production. I don't think that it's comparable to the stage production, but I was
wildly and very happily impressed with what they were able to do. I felt like a lot of the
cinematography, the choreography, the beauty and fantasticalness of the set paid homage to the fact
that it is a stage production to the Broadway roots. But they also added in kind of more
conversation, more scripted moments rather than just pure music that made it really fitting for
a movie. And I was surprised at how much I enjoyed the movie as well. Let's get to the business side
of this. I know you, I haven't seen the musical. I've only seen part one of the movie. And Wicked
was really, we talk about legacy sequels going on a lot in the movies right now. You think of
Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice Studios trying to bring back things that were popular in the 80s and 90s.
And really Wicked was the first kind of legacy sequel when it hit Broadway. Now it's been the
most successful Broadway musical commercially. I'm not in this space as much as you are. What
you think made wicked so commercially successful i see three kind of main main things one is that
it's great music every single song is a banger there's fantastic melody melodies and and that
just makes it so easily lovable that said there's still a lot of great art that doesn't have wicked's
commercial success so what else okay great music being the first piece of this formula
the second piece i would say is like you have two two things moving together one you have a
universally known story, and then you have a new perspective on that story. Everybody knows The
Wizard of Oz. This is especially true when Wicked came to Broadway. Every generation at the time
was familiar with The Wizard of Oz. So this is a musical that's born with universal brand
recognition. But you also have a story that is pretty early to an idea that I think now is pretty
commonplace in culture, like the story of the antihero telling the story of the villain and
and offering it a new perspective,
Wicked was super early to that trend
that again is now kind of like everywhere you turn
in popular culture.
So that second piece is,
okay, you've got this one-two punch
where the story behind the show
is operating in a fantastical world
that's very visually appealing
and that people are already incredibly familiar with,
but you're telling a whole new story
and offering a whole new perspective on that world.
And also Wicked was doing this,
like the musical Wicked was doing this at a time
when that kind of continuation didn't feel as commoditized as it might today.
And then the third piece, and I think that this applies more to the movie
rather than the Broadway production,
is that you kind of got what I'm going to call the Taylor Swift effect.
You have a lot of the audience that Wicked initially catered to,
and perhaps I'm speaking for myself a little bit,
but teenage girls, especially theater kids,
that loved Wicked when it came out and were early fans to it,
are now decades older,
and they're going to see this show in troves
and who are they bringing with them?
Their kids.
And I think that's,
I call it the Taylor Swift effect
because it kind of hits the same demographic
that Taylor Swift cornered.
And so you have millennial women
that really, really latched onto this.
That said, Wicked is not only
for that target demographic,
but I think that is certainly a thing
that contributes to the commercial success
of the movie thus far.
I mean, it was not a predominantly male crowd.
at the Alamo in Denver when I was going. We've got a few stocks for Wicked though.
Now we're getting into the business. And I think it's an interesting time to kind of talk about
Comcast Universal because people want to talk about the media side of Comcast as a way to talk
about the business. And there are fun questions. What can the parks do? What can the media business
do for this, especially as they're doing spinoffs? But the thing I keep reminding myself of is this
is such a small part of that company or a relatively small part of the company. When
you look at Comcast, if you're a stock investor, it's fun to ask questions. How many people are
going to go to the Universal Parks? That kind of thing. But this is a business where the business
and residential connectivity part of it, the cable and internet side, made up about $8 billion worth
of earnings in the third quarter of 2024. $8 billion. When you look at theme parks, media,
and studios, that's $2 billion. And that's where investors are finding the growth year numbers.
But if you're approaching Comcast Universal and you're interested in the parks and the media side
of it. The real questions you have to ask are about the cable and internet business.
Wicked is, as you just mentioned, it's a massive brand, but it's a small piece of Comcast's actual
business. It's a small piece of their parks business and a small piece of Comcast itself.
What real questions should investors be asking themselves?
So I should be clear. You can ask some fun questions. There's really fun parts of this
business. And for example, Universal is going to open up Epic Universe next year. And for the
first time, Universal Studios is going to have more of a multi-day offering for people going
to Orlando. They can go to more worlds from Harry Potter and How to Train Your Dragon and even
this big Monsters Unleashed type ride, which is going to feature incredibly technically advanced
audio animatronics. That's fun. And there's also growth questions for Peacock, especially,
you know, are people going to cancel after the Paris Olympics? How's that going to play out in
the next year? But for me, if I'm looking at Comcast, one less fun question that I'm asking is
How are people going to get their internet in five to 10 years? Because there's a chance that
some of that could come from low earth orbit satellites. If we can put more of those up there,
or not we, I'm not running these rocket ships, but if these space companies can put more of
those up there and there's a more competitive offering for internet, that could hurt the
dominance of a lot of these cable providers and internet providers. I want to take us back to
parks really quick, because I know you said that that's a much smaller part of the Comcast business,
but you say parks, my head immediately goes to Disney. Why isn't Disney building more parks?
It's a good question. I mean, when you look at Bob Iger's memoir, The Real Feather in His Cap
is the opening of Shanghai Disneyland. And right now they're really focusing on cruises and their
media business. I think they're trying to find growth elsewhere though. We promised some stocks
for Wicked. Here's one that kind of plays to one of the songs, one of the more famous pieces of
this musical. Ricky, you've got a stock that's defying gravity, I believe. Yeah, we talked
low Earth orbit. How about Rocket Lab right now? And this is one where I'm having to remind myself
of foolish investing fundamentals. And there's a lot more excitement into the business of space.
We saw a couple of days ago, for example, Jared Isaacman leave his post at Shift4Payments to head
up NASA. And he said something on X that gave me some optimism, writing, quote,
space holds unparalleled potential for breakthroughs in manufacturing, biotechnology,
mining, and perhaps even new pathways to new sources of energy, there will inevitably be a
thriving space economy, one that will create opportunities for countless people to live
and work in space. One of the companies that's central to this right now is Rocket Lab. And
right now they have a rocket called the Electron, and this can pull about 660 pounds to low earth
orbit. You can think of a few people that are able to hop on, even though it's not carrying people,
a few people in terms of its payload. They're working on a rocket called the Neutron though,
which is planning to pull about 29 000 pounds this is about two adult elephants plus a juvenile
depending on the sizes of the elephants but significantly more and this is one where i'm
really having to remind myself when you hold a rule-breaking stock where it's hard to apply
those traditional valuation metrics this is one where don't get involved with it let your winners
run because ultimately what i'm what i'm thinking with this company it's not next quarter it's not
next year. This is a thought and a thesis around a space economy that's five to 10 years from now.
And it's still a $10 billion market cap company. I know that you've long been interested in space,
but how long have you been following and invested in Rocket Lab specifically? Have you been along
for the ride for a really long time or are you kind of newer to this? No, it's the stock that's
done the best in terms of percentage of my portfolio. And I've only been invested in it
for less than a year. So that's part of my concern with it, where I'm like, this thing's going
really high really quick but also you know i i've had plenty of losing stocks and losing ideas that
have lost me money so this is making up for some of those losses okay to round us out we each picked
a stock that pays homage to the original king of oz l frank bomb the author of the original books
i decided to go with elf cosmetics that's because the name alphabet the protagonist in wicked
the the creation of that name the author of the book wicked gregory mcguire said that he came up
up with it by thinking about L. Frank Baum. How could he kind of like give a nod to him in the
book? And Elphaba, E-L-F-B, was his way of doing that. So I thought, hmm, what could be a fun way
to nod to Baum as well? And Elf was kind of the first point that got me there. But beyond that,
I think if you think of Elf as a company, just the cosmetics piece, okay, we can also connect
this back to Wicked. There's a lot of green makeup that goes into Elphaba on the Broadway
production each day. So not that Elf is actually the company behind that, but that was a nice
little tie-in for me too. Beyond that kind of more fun stuff, the actual stock stuff,
Elf has been a little bit volatile recently, but the company is still generating big time growth.
So it's got about 50% gain in sales in the most recent quarter. This is less to be fair than the
70 to 85% growth rates the company saw in kind of quarters past, but I don't view that as terribly
worrisome to the longer term story. Gross margins are expanding too, and Elf continues to gain
market share, and it does know its audience. I find this maybe one of the most exciting pieces
of the story here. At a time when a lot of legacy makeup makers are struggling, I like Elf's
accessibility. It's up to 80% less expensive than Estee Lauder and L'Oreal products, and its seeming
flexibility and responsiveness to its audience. It plays a lot on TikTok, caters to a massive
audience there. They take reviews from users and then use that to change their products in the
future. And just that responsiveness, that nimbleness, I think sets it up for long-term
success. Well, I'm glad you mentioned marketing because L. Frank Baum was really, he was a great
marketer. And that was his job before he was successfully publishing these novels. The stock
that I went with is Dick Sporting Goods. And I'm going to connect it to there in a little bit. But
L. Frank Baum is a great American dream story. There's a documentary on PBS called American Oz
about his life that I enjoyed watching.
And earlier in L. Frank Baum's career,
he went to Aberdeen, South Dakota,
kind of hoping that this would be the next Chicago.
And what he did is he opened this sort of exotic goods
and novelty store where he would get
like little trinkets and toys from all across the world
and try to present them in interesting and beautiful ways.
Simultaneously, he tried to make that store
sort of a community center.
So he would sell bicycles,
but then he would also have like a bicycling club
hoping that he could start these like community groups that would go in buy their products and
then enjoy like meeting new people there this kind of fell apart when a drought hit and you
had these farmers that were buying these toys and gifts for their children when they're not
selling their crops that becomes an incredibly easy thing to cut out and the business went under
i think of this with dick sporting goods because this is a company that's really understanding
experiential retail right now they're opening these large house of sports stores in minnesota
They have an ice rink there. They are trying to get more people in for golf simulators. They've
even used the word third place in some of their investor presentations. And the reason I'm
thinking about this is because they're doing exceptionally well right now. I think it's a
very well-run store. And when you go in, you're taken back by the merchandise. And it really is
beautiful when you walk in a Dick's Sporting Goods. But my question is, what happens in a
recession? Are people going to cut back on some of those higher-end purchases for things like
sporting goods let's close this out with not a stock but a song ricky favorite song from wicked
you know what i've been listening to for good from part two and honestly that's that's pretty
good one how about you i think the wizard and i that's the third song in the movie slash musical
and oh my gosh defying gravity is great and that gets all of the attention but the wizard and i
gives me chills like none other it is so amazing and i'm excited to hear dylan sing it in the next
segment. Thanks all. Listeners, I think I'll try to find a way out of Ricky's setup there.
Looks like we've got a commercial break coming to save me. And let's be real,
you don't need to hear this seventh grade chorus dropout sing. But you do need to stay right here
because Jason Moser and Asit Sharma will be back with me in just a few minutes
with stocks on their radar. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
As always, people on the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about,
and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against,
so don't buy or sell anything based solely on what you hear.
As always, all personal finance content follows The Motley Fool editorial standards
and is not approved by advertisers.
The Motley Fool only picks products it would personally recommend to friends like you.
I'm Dylan Lewis, joined again by Asit Sharma and Jason Moser.
It's the holiday season, and chat GPT maker OpenAI is getting in on the fun with their 12 days of shipmas.
Asit, the team is pushing out new products, new features, new demos, and also a new product tier,
a $200 monthly subscription, their pro version, that gives you unlimited access to some of their tools and advanced voice mode.
What do you make of this?
Dylan, I think there's room for pleasant surprise and unpleasant surprise here.
I'm pleasantly surprised by the amount of stuff that OpenAI and competitors like Anthropic have
put out over the last year. And here, you know, we're headed to the year end. They're still
churning out new stuff for us to look at. And so much of it has been useful. Unpleasant surprise
a little bit in that, you know, commerce has to come in somewhere. This seems like a very high
price tag. You can get the now premium version of ChatGPT for 20 bucks a month, and you get so much
with that. Here we have what promises to be a pretty interesting reasoning module,
but is it worth an extra 180 bucks a month? Still untested? I'm not so sure.
Well, you know, I mean, somebody has to pay for those server costs. You know, we can't just be
throwing billions and billions of dollars in here with all of these prompts and expect to be able
to get it for free. True. And I'll note that on the sidelines, there's word that OpenAI is trying
to renegotiate a clause they have with Microsoft, which says that if they ever develop AGI's,
Generalized Artificial Intelligence, the big, the Holy Grail of artificial intelligence,
right now, Microsoft doesn't have any economic interest in it. But they need money, OpenEye
needs money, so they're trying to renegotiate that clause and say, OK, if we develop the
killer application, you can keep investing in us. So, yeah, money is a consideration here.
Let's get over to this week's stocks on our radar. Our man behind the glass,
Engdahl is going to hit you with a question. Jason, you're up first. What are you looking
at this week? Yeah, going with Block, ticker SQ.
Just recent news here, wealth management firm Bernstein named Block its best idea for 2025.
I thought that was interesting. It certainly had a nice back half of the year. Shares up
now around 24% year-to-date. Recent press release noted that for Black Friday,
Cyber Monday, the Block ecosystem of commerce tools broke records, Dylan, with 144 million
Block Consumer Transactions globally, up 17% from a year ago.
And I also like the fact that Dorsey is starting to wind down the TBD efforts,
focusing less on things like title, getting back to the core of the business, right?
Focusing on what they do best in commerce, software, payments, and lending.
So I think better days ahead for Block.
Rick, a question about Block, ticker SQ.
Any truth to the rumor that they're changing their name to Cube?
It reminds me of our market foolery from years ago when I came up with the trapezoid.
That was a good April Fool's episode. That will be their entrance to the
metaverse. You get things in virtual reality. It's theCUBE. Asit, what's on your radar this week?
On my radar is Wingstop. This is a company that took a hit after its latest earnings report.
It's been growing extremely fast. The company is trying to take its average unit volume of each
store north of $3 million, and it's well on the way to doing that. But what I really like
about Wingstop is the fact that investors, the franchisees, get a phenomenal cash on
cash return, 50% to 70%. That's really created this huge development pipeline of franchisees
wanting more locations. Wingstop is unstoppable in this regard, and they're also teaming up
with the NBA. They are the official wing of the NBA just now. I think between a really
good marketing budget and a lot of store expansion, there are brighter days ahead. I see this
as an opportunity, this hit they took about 20% after the latest earnings report, to get
in on a franchise that wants to go global. Rick, a question about Wingstop ticker
W-I-N-G. Mild, hot, or atomic? Or do you go for the
weird Hawaiian or lemon pepper wings? What are you ordering?
Where it's possible to mix or melt a teriyaki with an atomic type of spice level, I go bananas for that.
Man, Asit's taste on today's episode on full display and absolutely fantastic across the board.
Rick, you have a record-breaking company on one hand and the NBA's official wing on the other.
Which one are you going with? Which one's on your watch list?
It's almost lunchtime. I'm feeling hungry.
You can't go wrong with wings.
All right, that's going to do it for this week's Motley Fool Money Radio Show.
The show is mixed by Rick Engall. I'm Dylan Lewis.
Thanks for listening.
We'll see you next time.
