Motley Fool Money - 4 Stocks We Just Bought

Episode Date: March 1, 2023

Lowe's continues a recent trend from major retailers. (0:20) Bill Mann discusses: - Solid 4th-quarter results from Lowe's being overshadowed by their guidance for the new fiscal year - The fact that some people on Wall Street are still surprised by cautious guidance - The relative attractiveness of Lowe's stock (10:00) Yasser El-Shimy and Ricky Mulvey share four stocks they bought recently.  Companies discussed: LOW, HD, WMT, TGT, ARHS, ENPH, BIG, MAA Host: Chris Hill Guests: Bill Mann, Yasser El-Shimy Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

LinkedIn is pretty amazing at helping you grow your small business. We cannot stop your new clients from emailing you at 3 a.m. We can help you sell, market, and hire in one place. We cannot help you be in three places at once. And while we can't help you organize your calendar, LinkedIn can help you land more clients so you have a calendar to organize. Grow your small business on LinkedIn. Learn more at LinkedIn.com slash small business.

It's official. We've got a trend among major retailers. Motley Fool money starts now. I'm Chris Hale joining me today. Motley Fool's senior analyst Bill Mann. Thanks for being here. Hey, Chris, how are you? I'm a Lowe's shareholder. So I've been worse. Oh, you're okay. But I'm okay. I'm okay. Let's talk about Lowe's. Fourth quarter revenue, lower than Wall Street analysts. We're expecting revenue guidance for the new fiscal year was also a bit lower. than Wall Street was hoping for. They are guiding for same-store sales growth of somewhere between zero and negative 2 percent, and shares of lows are down about 5 percent this morning. We'll get to

sort of broader topics in a minute, but I'm curious, what, if anything, surprised you about lows results? Basically, the thing that surprised me most about low's results is the fact that analysts don't seem to get out of New York City often enough to see what's really going on at stores around the country. Back to you, Chris. I cannot argue with that. I'm not sure why at this point in this earning season, the guidance that we're getting from major retailers like Lowe's is surprising anyone who is paying attention. Exactly. So, there's a couple things specific about Lowe's. And if anyone was surprised about Lowe's results, they didn't pay attention to the drivers from Home Depot's results because I don't

know if you know this, Chris, but they're very similar companies. And they both deal in heavy, I guess what you would describe as branded commodities, yes, but best, but also they deal in commodities. And so, what was the commodity from 2022 that has seen an incredible dropping price in 2023 that is lumber? So, when they're beating on earnings but missing on revenues for a company like this, what you have to know is that one of their inputs has changed dramatically. In this case, to me, it has to be lumber. And I don't really understand how analysts or the street were surprised about this. And that's why, to go back to their guidance for same-store sales growth for the new fiscal year,

you can do a double-take at that number. Like, whoa, whoa, whoa. You're saying at best your same-store sales are going to be flat. But we've seen for months now that it's higher prices boosting the same-store sales numbers for retailers across the board. It's not traffic in the stores. It's inflation that's been doing the heavy lifting. Absolutely true with most stores, but again, Home Depot and Lowe's, and we're talking about Lowe's here,

also have what are essentially straight commodity sales. I mean, nails, sheet metal, but especially lumber, and lumber is driven by market pricing that has nothing to do with Lowe's or Home Depot's capacity to sell it. Now, they also did point to a rising interest rate environment and lower home starts, but Lowe's and Home Depot, but maybe even more lows than Home Depot, are much more levered to home improvement than they are home building. So that's not necessarily it. I just look at the guidance as being them as saying, once again, what we should all know by now, it's that as we are coming out of one of the weirdest periods of time in American economic history, the pandemic, and then the quickest rise in inflation that we have seen ever in terms of just how fast prices

have gone up. I guess that's the definition of inflation, don't you think? It is. Thank you. I'm not talking about other kinds of inflation, Chris. I'm talking about the specific kinds of inflation where prices go up. And these companies don't know how to get out in front and make predictions based on those two elements. And I don't really understand why the market thinks that they should be able to do that, because it's literally nailing jello against a wall.

So let's stick with that topic, because now we've got this earning season. Just really, in the past two weeks, Lowe's, Home Depot, Walmart, Target, experienced CEOs and management teams at all four businesses, they're all giving roughly the same guidance. A topic that came up way back in the day, and I always, not that he was the only one who engaged in this type of activity, but the person I always think of is Steve Jobs, the whole idea of like, well, they're, you know, they're sandbagging on the guidance. He's being overly cautious so he can beat it. And maybe that was true, maybe that wasn't, but I sort of look at this and think, well, even if they are sandbagging, a little bit, even if that's 5% of that.

One, I think they've all earned the right to do that. Two, as you said, it's not just that we've had a rough economic time, and that 2022 was the worst year for the market in over a decade. You used the word weird, and I think more people, no, and you're right. Like, I think more people need to really embrace. That's not just that we've gone through a rough economic time. It's a particularly weird rough economic time that is unlike others that we've had. So, you know, wouldn't it be strange, if not outright alarming if any of these CEOs of major

retailers came out and said, actually, we're feeling really great about the next 12 months, and we've got much rosier guidance than you ever could imagine. Yeah. I mean, to me, it goes back to the uncertainty principle, which basically holds that you can't observe something without fundamentally changing it. In this case, the uncertainty principle is this. When you go to CEOs, you go to management teams, and you ask them what the next year is going to go like, they're going to look at their inputs. And the more uncertain their inputs are, the more naturally conservative, they're going to be because, Chris, I don't know if you know this, but CEOs hate disappointing people. They hate disappointing the market, right? You can't observe and make these predictions and throw things out there. And then if you disappoint the market, not expect the market to react just as it has with Lowe's today. I mean, I can't, I can't stress this enough. Lowe's quarter was fine. And their guidance was actually okay, but it comes in an environment in which

the basic inputs for lows, including labor, including raw supplies, are essentially unhinged from quarter to quarter from where they have just been. It's really hard for these CEOs to get ahead of the fact that they don't know at this point what they don't know. And so the easiest way to manage that is to come in and say, our upcoming period is going to be less than we thought, or at least be conservative. So for anyone who had Lowe's on their watch list, and they've got an appropriate time horizon for a business like Lowe's, do you look at what's happening with the stock today is a little small present? It's like, here, if you liked it before, it's 5% cheaper now. I do. I mean, Lowe's has been historically an unbelievable performing company. I mean, it's a five-bagger

in the last decade, which is for a retailer just great. So, yes, it is, it's down about 15% in the last year. It's never a cheap stock. I think it's very rare that Lowe's seems like a screaming bargain. But it is a company that is incredibly well managed. It essentially has a duopoly with Home Depot in an area of the market that still has growth ahead of it, even if you can't look out over the next year and say the growth trajectory is obvious. Bill, man, always great talking you. Thanks for being here. Hey, thanks, Chris. Just like you, we're investors. And just like you, we are on the lookout for companies to become part owners of. Matifold senior analyst Yasser El Shimi and Ricky Mulvey share four stocks they bought recently.

I like to dip my toes in the water, just take a small position, which allows me to study the company a little bit. And then as my conviction grows, as I study and follow the company carefully, I tend to add to them consistently, hopefully as I see them execute against the KPIs or the measures that I think they need to be executing against. And then I tend to hold, obviously, as long as possible as a foolish investor. One of the companies that you brought up is our house furniture, which is a, they sell luxury furniture. You can imagine a store in a mall selling a chandelier, unironically, you might be in an our house store. And that's one of the companies you brought up today. You're absolutely right. So

our house has been one of my recent purchases, or let me rephrase that, it has been a company that I've been adding to, including purchasing more shares recently, as they have updated their guidance yet again by raising the guidance in last November to show that they are going to beat the forecast, the previous guidance, both in terms of revenue growth and on the bottom line as well. But, you know, it's funny because, you know, I kind of like to fall in love with the companies that I invest in. And our house was no exception. So one day I was walking down the mall. And, you know, I literally just stumbled upon our house tour and I was just wowed by just how modern and how beautiful the design of the furniture was in that store.

So that kind of made me or drove me to dig in a little bit about the company. And when it did go public, I was like, okay, I need to take a small stick here and then follow the company and add to them if they seem to be doing well and doing well they have. There's a lot of competitors in this space. You have Williams and Sonoma, Restoration Hardware. I don't follow this space closely, so I have a hard time differentiating what one luxury furniture retailer does differently than another, especially when they're both in a lot of malls. Yeah, so our house is, I would say, is a bit unique in its value proposition based on just

kind of the designs that they offer are much more modern, as I said, compared to a restoration hardware store, which would, you know, if you step in it, you would be just a standard by the gaudy and kind of like old-fashioned, still luxury furniture, but just not something that would ever appeal to me. So our house kind of threads that needle pretty well. It's also a premium product unlike, let's say William Sonoma, which is kind of middle of the market, targets middle class, upper middle class. This is clearly in the higher class, upper class category.

It also has leadership in place that has been there for several decades since 1986. John Reed has been the founder and CEO of. the company. And they have also shown some pretty good responsibility in terms of how they allocate capital. They've had pretty good returns on invested capital and returns on equity that are in the triple digits. And, you know, one thing we should keep in mind is that, you know, when we're talking about an R house or a restoration hardware, as opposed to some other furniture retailers, is that those that target the luxury consumer, they tend to experience less cyclicality than something that would be more mainstream, let's say, as a William Sonoma.

That's a little counterintuitive. You would think that folks would trade down from luxury brands to mid-tier brands, but I guess you can make that case for any retailer. That's true. So I mean, the ultra, so this is kind of like luxury as in you and I can't probably afford it or I could potentially afford it, but I would have to forego my student loan payments, which would not be a wise thing to do. But this is not for me.

This is for people who are very very, very. well to do and have plenty of money to spend. And thus, that category of consumer tends not to be as affected by a cyclical downturn of the economy than your average middle class consumer. Anything on valuation? Right. Yeah. So, you know, the company currently trades at around 16 times next 12 months price to earnings multiples. Now that may not seem cheap for a home furniture retailer compared to, say, William Sinoma, which trades in the mid-single digits. But it's roughly on par with restoration hardware or RH. Part of my thesis, I was actually accumulating a much lower multiples,

but I still like it here. And part of the reason is, as I said, the luxury consumer has shown itself to be much less vulnerable to these downturns. The company has been not only meeting their estimates and guidance, but raising the forecast as well. They have been doing well in an extremely challenging, and difficult 2022. And one thing I like about it here, and I think it should even command a higher premium than restoration hardware, is that this company has a lot of room to grow, both in the

top line and the bottom line for many years to come. So take, for example, the current count of showrooms they have. They have roughly around 82, 83 showrooms. They target to double that to above 165 showrooms eventually, and they are adding about five to seven showrooms per year. So there will be plenty of room to grow for many, many years to come, especially as brand awareness increases. And I can't say the same about R.H. So one on the opposite end that I recently purchased was Big Lots, which is a furniture retailer. It is currently priced below a 0.1 price to sales multiple, which could be priced for death. Back in December, Jim Gilly spoke with me about why it could either essentially survive in triple

or completely go to zero and put a small position in that. Let's ride. Moving on to the next one, though, I would describe this literally is a company that makes widgets, basically taking solar energy and making the electricity usable in a modern system, and that is end phase energy. That's right. So this company has effectively and single-handedly reinvented the way power is managed from the solar panels on top of your roof and how you kind of. So as we know, know that solar panels, they produce energy as a DC current. And you need to convert those into alternating currents or AC in order to be able to use it at your home for your appliances and so on. Now, the traditional way this was done was through something called a string inverter,

which effectively meant that there was a single point of failure for the entire system. So if one of your panels goes out of commission or there's, let's say, it's shaded by a tree branch or whatnot, this meant that your entire solar power production goes offline or is strongly diminished. So basically what Enphase did is that it said, no, we can do this through microinverters. We can effectively let each panel produce its power. We convert that at the spot of each panel and then kind of let it flow so that even if one or two or more solar panels go out of commission, you're still getting production. Another thing they have done is that they've introduced new products.

They've been trying to effectively create themselves as a one-stop shop for the entire residential power, solar power management kind of solution space. So in addition to the microinverters, we just talked about, they have also come up with a battery storage system that allows you to store the energy that's produced by the solar power in case you are not using it on the spot and perhaps being able to use it, let's say, on a shady day or a cloudy day or in the evening when there is no sun.

Also, they have recently acquired a company that does residential power charging for electric cars. So they have been kind of positioning themselves pretty nicely in that space. It's not a cheap company by any stretch. I think it's trading it about 100 times earnings. Do you think the company's future is worth that high price of admission? Yes, I do. Otherwise, I would not be adding to it, obviously. I think that Enphase is a premium company worthy of a premium valuation.

And the reason is, as I said, has been a complete pioneer in this field that, you know, creating a product that is just leaps and bounce ahead of any competitor. They have shown that their management is also pretty darn good with their capital allocation. They have maintained consistently high and rising returns on investor's capital and equity. and they literally cannot sell them fast enough. They are planning to double their manufacturing capacity from 5 million microinverters per quarter right now to 10 million per quarter by the end of 2023

in order to meet all of this demand that's coming both domestically and internationally. And so we are expecting also that the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes lots of subsidies for the solar space, is going to help propel demand for these products a lot more. So this is kind of a secular growth story with multiple tailwinds. I expect that they will not have any problems growing into this rich valuation. Anything else on Enphase before we wrap up, you got a high net promoter score.

It seems like they're selling a lot of these widgets and people tend to like them. That's right. So their primary customer is actually contractors who are going to buy those in-phase products and set them up on your rooftop. You don't buy the microinverter directly or the, battery storage system directly, although you can, I guess, if you wanted to. But often it's your contractor. And those contractors have been very happy with their experience dealing with NFACE for a couple of reasons. One of which is that Enphase actually has a digital platform that

allows contractors to plan and set up and design how they are going to install the entire solar power system throughout your home. But the other perhaps more important reasons is, reason here is that they take customer service very seriously and they have about a minute and a half wait time only for their customer service response. So these customers are pretty happy and the 71 net promoter score is very high for a company in this space. Very nice. And then to wrap up, I'll say one one stock I recently purchased to or a REIT was mid-America apartments. They do a lot of, they have about 100,000 apartment units primarily in the Sunbelt Southwest regions. And basically, Basically, I think there was a dip in it because they had 15% rental growth last year.

And then this year, they're projecting about 3% rental growth. And I really like the sound of analysts fussily changing their models. Have you purchased any stocks lately? Let us know, drop an email of podcasts at fool.com. Maybe we'll talk about them on the show. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about. And the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy yourself stocks based solely on what you hear.

Chris Hill. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.