Motley Fool Money - 4th Down for the NFL?

Episode Date: January 26, 2018

Starbucks loses steam. Intel hits a new high. Netflix delivers. And Dell rethinks its need for privacy. Plus, Sports Illustrated columnist Andrew Brand talks about the business of football. Thanks to Harry’s for supporting The Motley Fool. Get your Free Trial Set – go to Harrys.com/Fool.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money. But you can give them... From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money. It's the Molly Fool Money Radio show. I'm Chris Helen, joining me in studio this week. From Million Dollar portfolio, Jason Moser, from Stock Advisor and Motley Fool Options, Jim Mueller, and from Total Income, Ron Gross.

Good to see you, as always, gentlemen. Hey, hey, hey. We've got the latest headlines from Wall Street. Just in time for the Super Bowl. We will dig into the business of football. And, as always, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar. But we begin with a hot-steaming mug of earnings. Starbucks' first-quarter revenue.

came in at a record $6 billion. That was actually lower than Wall Street was expecting. That plus some tepid same-store sales numbers. Shares of Starbucks down 5% on Friday, Jason. Yeah, these were tall, not venty, and I think the market is reacting appropriately. I'm going to let that go. Let's be clear here. This was their first $6 billion a quarter. So I think it's a bit of an overreaction and say this is a business in decline. But I think the question we need to answer is, was this a quarter that didn't quite hit expectations, or was this a quarter that portends tougher times to come? And I think that's a very fair question. And when we talk about Starbucks and growth, it's really all about China and Asia Pacific. That continues to be the case.

30% revenue growth in that region. And I think the Shanghai roastery is really encouraging for a number of reasons. I think it's going to give them the opportunity really to groom that brand and communicate that brand on a global basis. But very interesting statistic here, the average check of the Shanghai operation first day, it was open, $29 average check, which is just really impressive to think about. Every person that went in there has meant $29. They're not going to keep that up. No, I mean, that was the first day, right? But I think it gives you sort of the sign of the potential there. And when they roll that out on a global basis in Howard Schultz's is, I think, in Milan right now, looking to set up another one, there's a big potential there, I think.

I'm going to put you on the spot. I've wanted it on Starbucks forever. I've just never gotten into it. Am I too late? I don't think so. I think that, I mean, you look at a business here that, yes, this was a tough quarter. Yes, it sounds like guidance going forward's a little light. I think it's going to be a good business 10 years from now. I think coffee is obviously something that's not going to be disrupted, so to speak. The one question I have for Starbucks, this is really what kind of takes me by surprise a little bit. When you look at the number of reward members, okay, it's about 14.2 million rewards card members now. But that's off a base of 75 million. in unique customers per month. I just, I feel like there is something missing there. Either there's friction and signing them up. They're missing a big opportunity here. And I think that's something they need to figure out how to capitalize it. Well, and we've talked before about the issues that they've had with mobile ordering and sort of causing problems with throughput in the stores in the U.S. And it seems like the loyalty

program is at least part of that equation for them, isn't it? Well, there's no question. I mean, the loyalty program is intended to create that recurring revenue, that loyal customer, and that ease of use, right? I mean, it really is supposed to make Starbucks just a part of your day every day. And if there's a problem there, whether it's throughput, or whether it's friction signing up for the card, whatever that may be, they need to figure out how to overcome that. I'm part of that friction. I do not have a card. To this day, I really should jump on that. I mean, literally my opinion just changing you right now. If you're going to be a shareholder, you might want to help yourself out there.

All right. First things first. Intel's fourth quarter profits rose 37 percent and shares of Intel up big on Friday, hitting a new all-time high run. Pretty good quarter. Overall revenue only up 4 percent, which doesn't sound that exciting, but the data center business was up 20 percent, which I think is the big thing to focus on. Love the fact that they were able to raise their dividend 10 percent, 2.4 percent yield right now. Guidance, I'm pretty strong. I'm making the stock trade for only about 14 times.

Now, you know, not everything is peaches and cream here. The PC business, I think no one would be surprised to hear is lackluster. Hasn't been getting it done for quite some time. And the company is appropriately cutting costs to account for the transition in its business to more of a data-centered-driven business. So that bodes well for margins. And I think probably for the stock and the business going forward. Peaches and cream, maybe there's a Starbucks idea, right? So my question for you, Ron, is Intel inside a dead brand? now or what? No, I mean, I think it still has its place for sure, but clearly the business is

transitioning. They're big move into programmable chips where you can reconfigure them on the fly is a big push for them, but it's still a very small business, but it was up 35% for the quarter. And just regular old chips were up 21% for the quarter. Again, a relatively small piece of the business at this point, but I still think the brand has some legs. Shares of Netflix up 23% this week after subscriber growth in the fourth quarter surprised everyone. And Jim, I think this subscriber growth probably surprised a few executives in Netflix, too. I think it did because management of Netflix is really good at guiding where they expect the subscribers to be. And they're usually only off by about 1% or so.

Here they were off by 33% or something like that. Two million more than the 6.3 they guided to. And the interesting story here is what the international subscribers do. did. U.S. subscribers beat Handily. That's very nice, but they're getting high up on the penetration, but the international is where the story for this company lies, and they came in one and a quarter million more people than they expected. And I think that's because management, the company is executing its business plan that they've shown they can do in Canada and the UK and Latin America, every other place they've been to. That is, they launch into a geography.

They then spend a while figuring out what exactly people are willing to watch and what they want to watch. And so they tweak those offerings. And that makes the service much more desirable, and that helps the subscriber growth. Was it possible that any of that growth came from the relationships that's forged with companies like T-Mobile, for example, where sign up for T-Mobile service and your Netflix subscription is included and yada? Or was that mostly international that surprised them? Mostly international, I think. They do have some relationships with companies like T-Mobile.

I think they have one with France Telecom, too, but it's not a big part of their growth. A lot of this is just regular organic growth. One of the things they talked about was how they're going to be ramping up their marketing spend by more than 50% in 2018. We already know about the content costs. What do you think is keeping Reed Hastings up at night these days, if anything? I think he's sleeping pretty well. So one of the big stories this week was the fact that Netflix is now over $100 billion in terms of market cap.

It's actually closing in on $120 billion in market cap. And that's just in one week. So what should investors think when they look at the stock in terms of expectations? Because I don't want to say the growth days are over, but the trip from zero to $100 billion. Oh, definitely. It's an easier trip than $100 to $2 or $300 billion or $400 billion. But I don't think the growth days are truly over. The market opportunity, that is the number of people with broadband access outside the United States,

is still measured in the billions. And they only have like 120 million subscribers today, so they're still very underpenetrated. What's bothering me with the company right now is that debt level. Their debt to equity ratio, as of the end of the last year, was 1.8, which is pretty high. They're still doing okay on interest coverage of three or four times, and the operating margin is going up to 10 percent this year. So that's going to improve. But I wish they'd tap the equity market rather than the debt market for raising funds. Yeah, that was the point I was going to make.

It just seems like this is a perfect time to issue a little equity. Just take advantage of this rich stock price, because they could issue just a nice little modest percentage and really contribute to that growing content budget. content budget. I did a calculation earlier when the share price was a little lower, and they could dilute shareholders by about 5 percent and raise something like $6 billion. I was told they'd be on math. Fourth quarter sales for Caterpillar rose. 34 percent, but Caterpillar also took a tax hit to the tune of $2.4 billion. Ron, this is one of those bell weather stocks. Tell me what to think here. Don't worry about the tax hit. They had $16 billion in accumulated profits overseas and under the new tax plan. You're going to take a hit on it, but it's worth it. That's

fine. These are really strong earnings. It broke a four-year streak of declining sales. Global economy is very, very strong right now. Revenue up 35 percent for the quarter, North America, being the strongest part of that due to growth in heavy machines and aftermarket parts, but China and Asia Pacific also very strong. I liked what I saw from guidance. I think as a bellwether, I think it bodes well for the global economy. They added 4,800 jobs in the U.S. last year. And of Of course, we can see that in the very low unemployment rate with many companies following suit. The interesting part is that the stock was actually did not react the way you would expect it to. In fact, it was down shortly after this announcement, after having popped.

And I'm going to blame it on the Trump administration in this case because they put out some very confusing messages about their thoughts about the dollar. We want a weak dollar or a strong dollar, and I think it had investors kind of whipsawing back and forth. And then you have good old profit taking, with the stock being up 70 percent over the last year. So the confusion plus profit taking led to a stock that sold off. I was a little surprised by the reaction, too, in part because of, and you alluded to this, because of the guidance. I mean, this is a company that when they start to ramp up guidance, they're making huge machines.

Those are investments that are going to pay off years down the line. it really seemed like things were looking good for them. I think that sell-off was a very short-term, short-term-minded sell-off. The stock is not cheap after being up 70 percent over the last year. You could buy stocks like deer for cheaper multiples than you could to Caterpillar, but I think this is probably the beginning of stronger earnings. If you liked the Unicorn Frapicino that Starbucks created last year, we've got some good news. Details coming up.

You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Hey, if you're looking to get a mortgage here, a couple of tips. First, boost your credit score before applying. The better your credit score, the less your loan is going to cost you. And here's another tip. Check out Rocket Mortgage. Getting a mortgage, refinancing your existing home loan, it's not a walk in the park. And when you're making a big financial decision like that, you want to be as confident as you are at your job or your life in general. And Rocket Mortgage gives you that same level of confidence when it comes to buying a home or refinancing. your existing home loan. It's simple. Rocket Mortgage allows you to fully understand all the details so you can be competent. You're getting the right mortgage for you. To get started, go to rocketmortgage.com slash fool, equal housing lender, licensed in all 50 states, and MLS, Consumer Access.org, number 3030. Welcome back to Motley, Full Money, Chris Hill here in studio with Jason Moser, Jim Mueller, and Ron Gross. Hey, if you live in the San Francisco area, we are coming to town Wednesday, February 7th. We're going to be

having a happy hour meetup for our Motley Fool podcast listeners. Just drop us an email, Radio at Fool.com. We will send you all the details. That's downtown San Francisco on February 7th, Radio at Fool.com. Nice week from McCormick shareholders. The Spicemaker put up record profits in the fourth quarter. Jason, last week, this was the stock that you had on your radar, and it kind of looks like they nailed it. Feeling pretty good about things. Hey, listen, Chris, one of my guilty pleasures at home is diners drive-ins and dives. I mean, I'm a sucker for the show. I'm in for that show. I'm a cook for the family. And with all due respect to Guy Fieti, McCormick is really flavor town. I mean, come on.

Let's face facts here. I think the recent acquisition of RB Foods was really the big question mark hanging over the company because they paid a lot of money for it. But they got some really solid brands there, French's mustard, Frank's Red Hot sauce. The list goes on and on. And they're really just building themselves out to be the flavor maker for the entire world. And so for me, typically with a big acquisition like that, the burden of proof is on the buyer to show us investors that it was a sensible and smart acquisition. I think we're seeing the signs that it was. Organic revenue growth, 5%, but it was around 21% when you add in the acquisition of RB Foods and also Giati. And I think that it's a pretty steady, eddy business.

They're projecting for around 5% revenue growth in 2018. strength in both the consumer industrial segments. They just raised their dividend for the 32nd consecutive year. So for me, this is just a very strong business model. They're able to accelerate paying down that debt for the acquisition. They have, I think, a lot of runway ahead to do really well for shareholders. CNBC reporting this week that Ron Gross should not hold his breath waiting for his Tesla Model 3. Employees at Tesla's Gigafactory saying that battery production is slower than the company has led on, in part because of inexperienced workers and assembly challenges. Jim, we had Paul Linerd on last week's show talking about the Detroit Auto Show,

the automotive industry. One of the things he said is like with Tesla, it's a story stock. And it is. But right now, this is a story that Tesla doesn't want to tell. Definitely not. So when you're having batteries built by hand, at least in part, the reports that some components were being put in by hand, and that could possibly lead to misalignment of the cells, which might make it a safety issue. You don't want that story out there. But despite the news that's coming out, many analysts are still very bullish on it, and they're still buying into the story. And I understand that. Elon Musk is a very charismatic leader. But the company has a tendency to overpromise and under-deliver, which is the exact opposite of what we here,

here at the Fool Like, which is under promise and over-deliver. And when you cut back your Model 3 delivery schedule and say, oh, we're going to be doing 5,000 cars by the end of the year, and they barely do 20, I don't even know how many, $2,500, $1,500, something like that in 2017. And now they're only going to get up to $2,500 per week. I think that's the metric. By the middle of the summer, when they were targeting $5,000 a week a while back, that's not the way to run a car company.

Well, despair not, because I just received an email yesterday that said they were delivering one Model 3 to the DC area. And if I would like, I could make an appointment to go sit in it. So I got that going for me, which is nice. I thought maybe they were going to make everyone in the DC area just share that one. Dell Technologies, formerly Dell Computer, was one of the hottest stocks of the 1990s. Dell went private in 2013 and is now reportedly considering a return to the public markets, Ron, does Dell need the money, or are they just crushing it in the private market and they just want to raise some capital to crush it even more in the public market?

I think it depends if you're a cynic or not. Perhaps they are doing better and transitioning their business nicely, and now it's time to re-enter the public markets. Or perhaps they need to pay down their massive debt load, which, by the way, interest expense is not as deductible as it used to be under the new Trump tax plan. So that could be something on their minds. Or it could be an exit strategy for Silver Lake partners, which helped Michael Dell take the company private for $25 billion. Earlier in the day, I was feeling a little bit more optimistic. Now I'm feeling a little bit more cynical. And I'm thinking it's mostly about exit strategy. So part of the reason that Dell struggled after the turn of the century was because they

were first and foremost a computer maker. We were talking earlier about Intel and sort of the way they're trying to shift their business. Isn't that a challenge that Dell needs to overcome if they're really going to succeed in the public markets once again? Because Michael Dell really seemed like he's a lot happier guy in the private markets. Probably so. And they're in a very competitive space in that cloud business, whether it's Amazon's AWS or Microsoft Azure and others. So it's an uphill battle. You'll recall the acquired EMC back in 2016 and also a have a big stake in VMware. There actually is a tracking stock for Dell, ticker symbol,

DVMT, that tracks their ownership stake in VMware, which is an interesting way to play it. But they've always been in competitive businesses, and they've, you know, at least in the later years, always been just somewhat behind the eight ball. Shake Shack has teamed up with the B-52s to create a limited edition beverage. Yes, it's the love shake shack. Sorry, the love shack. There we go. A strawberry blonde milkshake topped with whipped cream and glitter sprinkles. It is available in February.

I'm rooting for this to succeed. I'm not. You're not? I can't stand that song. I'm sorry. I can do it out the glitter sprinkles, but it sounds delicious. Well, clearly we know why Starbucks's guidance going forward is now so tepid. I mean, it's just the Shake Shack competition.

Is this, I mean, all kidding aside, this really does, and I'm going to give credit to McDonald's, whether they deserve it or not, but what McDonald's is Donald's did for years with the McRibb, just coming out with this limited edition thing once a year, it boosted same store sales, even if it was just for that one month. I kind of like this strategy, and that's why I'm rooting for this to work. Isn't this kind of a no-brainer if you're a particularly a publicly traded restaurant company? Yeah, I think a lot of restaurant companies do this limited time availability type product, whether it's Starbucks with the unicorn drink or Dunkin' Donuts does it from time to time. So I have no problem with it, as long as it tastes good and is not too gimmicky.

I have social media today. The word of mouth advertising, it just flies. And it's a good way to test a potential large company-wide menu rollout item. Let's go to our man behind the glass, Steve Broido. Steve, come February, can I interest you in a love shack shake? No, thank you. My man. Just out of curiosity, is it the song or is it the glitter sprinkles that have you?

You know, I'm not, I've never been to a shake shack and I've never wanted to go to. with Shake Shack. So maybe that's my problem. I have one opening a couple miles from my house, the opposite direction that I'm worried about the Amazon camp is opening up. And so the family and I will be going soon. One week until the big game. Up next, we'll check in on the business of football with Andrew Bram. Stay right here. This is Motley Full Money. Welcome back to Motley Full Money. I'm Chris Hill. We are one week away from Super Bowl 52. Time to talk about the business of football with Andrew Brand. He's a columnist for

Sports Illustrated. He's the host of the Business of Sports podcast, and he joins me now. Andrew, always good to talk to you. Likewise, Chris. You are based in Philadelphia. You tell me, how crazy was the city when the Eagles made it to the Super Bowl? Well, I guess they broke through the greased poles. It was quite a scene everywhere you looked around on TV and even in neighborhoods. I was coming back from the game, and I got out of there early. But, what a scene. And it's great for the fans. You know, I'm not from Philadelphia, but my wife is, so I kind of married into some fandom. And I see, you know, people just chipper and much more optimistic these days about everything because of those Eagles. And boy, just what a story.

I've paid tribute to General Manager High Roseman and Coach Doug Peterson. I'm not sure there's another team in the league that could be in the Super Bowl with a backup quarter. Beck, and backups along the way of major injuries throughout the year. So resilient this team. So upbeat Doug Peterson has been about just overcoming whatever's in front of them. So resilient, really a fan of the Eagles. Let's get to the business of the NFL, and I want to start with the television ratings, which are down a little bit compared to last year, although not significantly more than

overall aggregate television ratings. Television viewing is on the sort of the slow decline and the NFL is along there with it. How worried are the owners about television ratings right now? Where does it rank in terms of their worry level? Well, it's concerning, but as you suggested, you have to look at it in context. As we know, every viewing is down. Entertainment, sports, maybe not nightly news because of our president, but it just seems like everything is down because of so many options, because of so many viewing experiences and on-demand and consumers want it now and when they want it, how they want it. So it is a concern, but it has to be addressed in the global scheme of things with other sports

and other programming. I just think, Chris, that the talk about ratings being down somehow associated with any decline of NFL popularity or prosperity is not true. I just see the enormous numbers for this sport, the fact that more networks, not less, seem to be wanting to get in on the programming. And then, of course, the digital media giants are going to be jumping in as they've started to on Thursday night football. And it's going to be a great thing for the league in terms of future revenue sources. I don't see any decline ahead. How important are the digital rights? Because from a dollar standpoint, they're tiny compared

to broadcasting cable television. Although Commissioner Roger Goodell just came out earlier this week talking about millennials. And to hear him talk, it sounds like if losing young viewers is not his number one concern, it's pretty high on his list. Yeah, maybe he read my column because what I said was you can take away concussions, take away social protests, take away the ratings. I think the biggest challenge for the NFL in all sports leagues is simple, how to attract and maintain younger viewers. Because the real problem for sports or traditional sports, I don't think is ratings.

I think it's a aging of the fan base. And I just think that when we see numbers of average viewer for baseball in the 50s and basketball in the low 40s and football in the mid-40s, that's concerning. So how are you going to attract younger viewers? And I think that's a focus for them. I don't know what the answer is. I do think they've started to address it with the programming where you'll see split-screen advertisement. You'll see no commercials after a kickoff anymore. you'll see sort of moving the game along in all sports.

But they've got to address it. I think the big problem for the NFL, in my mind, is you've got 12 minutes of action over three hours. And consumers aren't going to stand for that, I think, long term. I think that's an issue. You mentioned the concussions and certainly injuries have been a bigger storyline this year. Sports Illustrated a few weeks ago had a cover story. and the headline was carnage inside the NFL's season of pain.

From a viewer standpoint, are the injuries hurting, even on a small level, the long-term popularity of football? Or do you think most, if not all, fans have just sort of made their peace with the violence of the game so far? I think most, if not all, fans have this conflicted relationship with that and admit it, where they'll be concerned, they'll see this terrible hit, they'll see guys demented later in life, and they'll tis-tisk and shake their head, lament it, bemoan it, but they won't tune out. They don't tune out. They watch. And I think we're all among that.

At least I admit to being that myself. I am horrified at some of the violence, the brutality, the way the concussions are somehow just sort of sloughed off, but I watch and I will not stop because it's a dangerous sport. And I think there's millions and millions like me. We have accepted this. Now, there's more in the news about this topic than there ever has been, and there's more documentaries, there's more stories, there's more stories about young people. but I don't think that's a reason people are going to stop.

The anecdotal evidence about mothers not letting their sons play football, is that going to affect a talent base that's coming into college and pro football? I don't think so in any appreciable number. But there have been some stats about youth football, Pop Warner football, on the decline in terms of enrollment. Is it, I guess I'd put it this way, if that continues and moves it, way up to high school, if in the next 10 years we see, maybe not a major college, but a sizable college decide, you know what, economically it doesn't make sense for us to have a football

program anymore? Wouldn't that concern the NFL if the overall talent base in college begins to shrink? Yeah, I just don't see the tipping point. I mean, we've had some players, we talked about this past couple of years, Chris Borland, a couple other younger players in their mid-20s opt out. what I call preemptive retirements after playing one or two years in the NFL. And I thought that could be sort of moving towards a tipping point, but I don't think we had one of those.

This year, they seem to be few and far between. And yeah, if a school stopped football, that could sort of raise a warning flag for other schools. But we know the Power Five conferences, which are basically the NFL's farm system, are not going away with football. it's their number one revenue driver. It's what puts them on the map, a lot of these states.

So I don't see it. I do think the youth thing you mentioned is key, and maybe the NFL has to be more transparent here. I know they talk about heads-up tackling and all the safety that they rightly do and admirably do with their clinics. But if the evidence scientifically these brains, these heads should not be subjected to contact,

before pick an age, 14, 15, 16. I think they're going to have to concede with that at some point and be honest with the science. We are a ways off from Las Vegas getting an NFL team. It's in the works. I think they begin in, what, 2019 is when the Raiders moved to Las Vegas? The brand new stadium opens in 2020. They may have a temporary location in 19, yes. So the stadium is what intrigues me because it's going to be.

be a smaller stadium than what we see. It's not going to be one of these 60, 70, 80,000 seat stadiums. It's going to be somewhere around 20,000, is that right? Oh, I think it's bigger than that. I think that would be a problem for the NFL. But you're right. I don't think it's the monstrosity, 80,000, but maybe 50 to 60. If so much of the money is coming from television, and it is, as opposed to the ticket revenue at the gate, wouldn't it be more of, you know, a home field advantage to go with a smaller stadium? I'm curious if you're hearing any talk, because look, there are new stadiums, but then there are always owners who look at their own stadium, look at a brand new stadium and think, well, it's time for me to get a new one.

Is there any talk thinking long term about, yeah, it actually would be an advantage for our team. If we had a smaller stadium, if we, in the age of Stubhub and the secondary market made harder for opposing team fans to get tickets, and the money's coming from television anyway. Let's just go with a smaller stadium. It's an interesting theory because a lot's being made of the L.A. situation. You have two temporary stadiums in L.A. right now before their Shangri-Rala opens in 2020 as well. One for the Chargers, ironically called Stubhubhub Center, which is the smallest by far. It's like 27, 28,000 that they're playing in the next three years.

or the next two years, including this past year. And then you have one that's too big in the Coliseum for the Rams. I think the NFL kind of what you said, I think they're like, we'll deal with ticket problems. That's not an issue. Because back in the day, ticket sales represented, I don't know, 60, 70, 80 percent of team revenues. Now it's like, well, way to, you know, ticket revenues.

That's way down the list. and the real ticket revenues are from non-shared income, in other words, not shared with other owners, which is premium, club, and sweet sales. And those will thrive in Vegas. They will thrive in L.A. And in terms of the average ticket buyer, I don't know if the NFL's too concerned with that. In a previous life, before you were a business analyst, you were working in the front office of the Green Bay Packers, and you were there in 2005 when with the 24th pick in the first round, the Packers drafted Aaron Rogers.

And the reaction from the fans was not even remotely positive. You got booed at your own draft party. When it comes to evaluating college talent, it really does seem like it's more hit or miss than it should be, particularly at the quarterback position. What did you and your colleagues see in Aaron Rogers that others might have missed? Because plenty of teams had the chance to draft him, and he's a first ballot Hall of Famer. Yeah, they did. And I'll never forget that day, Chris, where we're sitting in that room.

And if you picture quickly a board on sort of the upper level of the wall in front of you, first round, I think that year we had maybe 15, like 18 players rated in the first round. Even though there are 32 picks, we only rated like 18 players worthy of a first round. pick. And sure enough, I remember the names, DeMarcus Ware and Thomas Davis and Derek Johnson, among

them, like all these defensive players we targeted, they're gone, and we get to 24, and there's just that one name up there. And it's a quarterback, and we had the most durable quarterback in the history of football on our team, and you could hear the rumbling from the right of me

where the coaches are grumbling like, oh, my God, we're not going to do this, are we? not going to take a quarterback. He can't help us. Can't help us this year. Can't help us next year. Maybe not the next year. Maybe never. And then to the left of me is management where we're saying, what do we always say? Trust the board. Trust the board. We've done six months of scouting on this. He's the highest rated player. Why would we dip into the second round to take a need position? And of course, the rest of history. And like you said, below us in Lambeau Field was a draft party. And it was like a delayed reaction.

We make the pick and all the booing underneath. Wow, it was crazy. What we saw with Aaron was incredible movement and arm strength, off the charts intelligence, an ability to not take things too seriously. He's got that rye, California cool humor. And he was a favorite right away, and then it was three years in the bullpen before we gave the keys to him.

Brett retired. I think what happens now, is you don't have the luxury of three years in the bullpen. You take a guy that high, well, again, you're not, teams with superstar quarterbacks usually aren't taking first-round quarterbacks. So it was unique, and I'm not sure we'll ever see that again. What do you think is the most common mistake that teams make when they are evaluating talent in the draft?

I think just what I said, need versus best player, because they'll get emotional. We don't have any linebackers. We don't have any corners. We don't have any defensive line. We've got to go and jump and dip down to what our board says. Or they get emotional or an owner gets involved. And I think, you know, you have so many man hours

and millions of dollars spent on traversing the country for six months to set up these best players for you. And the mistakes are made when you don't trust it. Now, sometimes you're just wrong, but a lot of times they don't do what they were said. going to do all those times. You have a plan, stick to it. All right, I want to, before I let you go, wrap up with a quick round of Buy Seller Hold, he got a lot of praise for his rookie season as a commentator.

Buy Seller Hold, CBS analyst, Tony Romo. Bye taught me about football that I hadn't learned from other analysts. He's a gem. He's a star. This award-winning film actor is not known for being associated with sports, but his promotion for the AFC championship game made him an internet sensation. Buy seller hold, John Malcovic. Loved it, which they played at the Super Bowl, too, even though it's a different network. Buy again. A bunch of teams need a new quarterback, and the last time this guy was on the field, he'd

put up some pretty good stats. Buy seller hold, Colin Kaepernick, playing in the NFL again. I'm going to say hold because I think he can play. I'm not sure as a starter. So I'd buy him as a backup, hold them any other way. And finally, given all his success, his stock does trade at a pretty rich multiple. Buy-seller Hold, Super Bowl halftime performer, Justin Timberlake. You know, my wife would be the quickest buy in the world. That's her man crush.

But I'd say, hold, we've seen it before. A woman's top in Houston, I was there. We'll see how he responds to this one. You don't think he's going to make that mistake again, do you? No, I think he's mature. He's an older Justin Timberlake now. It'll be fun. It'll be a good performance.

You can read his stuff. You should definitely check out the business of sports podcasts. It's his busy season. So Andrew Brand, thanks for giving us a few minutes of your time. Always a pleasure, Chris. Coming up, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar. Stay right here. This is Motley Full Money.

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blade, rich lathering shave gel, and a travel blade cover. That's a $13 value for free when you sign up. Just cover the shipping. To get your free trial set, go to harries.com slash fool. That's harries.com slash fool. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy ourselves stocks based solely on what you hear. Welcome back to Motley Full Money. I'm Chris Hill, joined in studio once again by Jason Moser, Jim Mueller, and Ron Gross. Time to get to the stocks on our radar. Our man behind the glass, Steve Brodo is going to hit you with a question. Ron Gross, you're up first. What do you got?

I got Brookfield Infrastructure Partners, BIP, a favorite of both of our Hidden Gems newsletter analysts this month, which is rare. One of the world's largest owners and operators of energy, utilities, transport, and communications, infrastructure assets. What a mouthful. That is. Proven ability to acquire high-quality business and operate them efficiently. They've been able to expand earnings, fund from operations, and their dividend over the years, and that dividends currently stands at 4.1%. Steve, question about BIP? Where's that dividend going over the next 12 months?

I would say somewhere in the low 4% range is probably where we'll stay. Jason Moser, what are you looking at? Yeah, stock we have on hold in MDP right now. Twitter tickers, TWTR. I think there was a perception that 2018 was going to be a really tough one for Twitter because the thinking was Snapchat was going to get in there and steal a lot of their ad dollars. But knowing what we know now, Snap's problems are far bigger than perhaps initially suspected. And I think that we're seeing some budget dollars being diverted Twitter's way again.

So we'll be very interested to see if this is another positive quarter so we can hopefully maybe take the stock off hold. Steve, question about Twitter? Has the character limit change had any impact on this business that you can see? Yeah, I mean, actually, I was very encouraged by that. It seems they made that decision based on data. It creates more engagement. And for something like Twitter, engagement is key. Jim Mueller, what are you looking at this week? I'm looking at Rollins, ticker symbol, ROL. It's a recommendation in Stockiviser and I own shares myself. It gets rid of bugs and critters from where they're not supposed to be. Think

termites and cockroaches, bedbugs, and bats in your belfry. Orkin is their big brand, and that's the best known brand in basically in all of North America and possibly the world for getting rid of these things. They've grown revenue and net income year over year for 47 straight quarters. They've raised their dividend by 12% or more for 16 straight years. And I just love their recurring revenue subscription model. Steve? Any bugs in the Mueller household we should be aware of? I can't stand the things. So the bugs and I have an agreement. As soon as they come in, I kill them. Three very different businesses. Steve, you got one you want to add to your watch list? I might take a look at Twitter.

in a wow all right jason moser jim muller ron gross guys thanks so much for being here thanks chris that's going to do it for this week's edition of motley full money our engineer is ste broido our producer is mac greer i'm chrys l thanks for listening we'll see you next week