Motley Fool Money - A Vaccine Boost
Episode Date: November 13, 2020Pfizer announces encouraging results from its COVID-19 vaccine. Disney gives investors 73 million reasons for optimism. Beyond Meat reports a surprising loss. Lyft reports a surprising increase in rev...enue. And DoorDash prepares for an IPO. Motley Fool analysts Ron Gross and Jason Moser discuss those stories and weigh in on the latest from Cisco Systems, DraftKings, McDonald’s, and Unity Software. And Ron and Jason share a couple of stocks on their radar: Cloudflare and Titan International. Plus, Motley Fool analyst Emily Flippen talks about what the election outcome means for the cannabis industry. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
If you're a small business owner, you already know what it takes to keep everything moving.
You're juggling customers, invoices, and about 100 decisions every day.
Thankfully, taxes don't have to be one more thing on that list with Intuit TurboTax.
You can get your business taxes done for you with a full service expert.
TurboTax matches you with your dedicated tax expert who knows your industry understands your
business write-offs and gives you the personalized advice your business deserves.
upload your documents right in the app, hand everything off, and still feel like you're in the loop
the whole way through. You can even get real-time updates on your expert's progress right in the
app, which makes it so much easier to stay on track. And you can get unlimited expert help at no
extra cost, even on nights and weekends during tax season. Visit turbotax.com to get matched with
an expert today, only available with TurboTax full service experts.
Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money.
From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money Radio Show. I'm Chris Hill, joining me this week, Jason Moser and Ron Gross. Good to see you, as always, gentlemen.
Hey, hey, hey, hey, Chris.
We've got the latest headlines from Wall Street. We've got the latest on the cannabis industry, along with a couple of stocks on our radar.
But we're going to begin with the story that we have all been waiting for.
Monday, Pfizer announced that it's COVID-19 vaccine, which is in phase three trials, is more
than 90 percent effective in participants who were not previously infected.
Obviously, Jason, we still need final approval.
There are still steps to go.
But in terms of the ripple effect for the stock market, it was pretty breathtaking to see entire
categories of stocks go up 10 percent or more.
And on the flip side, a lot of the...
the quote unquote stay-at-home stocks falling 10, 15 percent or more.
Yeah, I mean, this is the news that we want to hear, right?
I mean, this is the news we've been waiting for.
And it does sound like we're one step closer to, you know, the light at the end of the
tunnel, so to speak.
But to your point there, I think it's been very entertaining to watch the knee-jerk reactions
on the market over the week.
And I mean, I don't think it was really a surprise to any of us to see this quote-unquote
stay-at-home stock reaction, right? I mean, we were all anticipating that there would be some
sort of rotation from one to the other. It was a little bit surprising to see how drastic some
of those moves were. But, I mean, that's the power of big money and a lot of liquidity, being
able to make decisions very quickly and just go ahead and move. It is worth remembering.
I mean, as you said, this is something, this is not over.
We still have plenty of work to do in regard to production, distribution.
I mean, there is going to be the time that goes through here.
But it makes me think back to the Fool Fest presentation that I gave in, I think it was June
of this year.
I was talking about stay-at-home stocks and presenting some ideas for members.
My final takeaway was ultimately like, look, the stay-at-home stock conversation is fun, right?
It's interesting to look at businesses from that perspective.
Let's make sure to understand this is a short-term catalyst, right? It's not a long-term trend.
I mean, we're not going to be staying at home forever.
And so make sure that these stay-at-home stocks that you're interested in that you're buying.
Make sure they're going to be good businesses even after all of this is said and done.
Because, you know, you look at companies like DocuSign, like Teladocel, like Chipotle even.
I mean, these are companies that I think will continue to prosper well after all of this is done because of this acceleration in this digital transformation.
So it's worth just keeping that in mind and understanding that a lot of these short-term knee-jerk reactions are just that short-term knee-jerk.
We still like a lot of these businesses that we've been focused on over this past year.
Yeah, I'll take a little bit of the other side of what Jason was saying about how the stay-at-home phenomena was perhaps a short-term catalyst.
I think I don't blame any of the traders out there for not necessarily knowing how to play this or play it correctly.
Because we didn't know necessarily if this was a permanent paradigm shift in the way the country,
is going to operate, or a bubble was forming, or a combination of both.
And I do think, in a sense, even though this will shake out and the vaccine will get people
back to doing things they used to do, I do think there is going to be a certain amount of
a paradigm shift in this country. For sure, not everyone is going back to work.
And I think for the way companies run, the way companies that benefit from work at home
operate that will benefit them. The commercial real estate market is perhaps forever changed,
at least for the foreseeable future. I do think there are some real paradigm shifts. And so
the seeing the reaction in the markets are always interesting to me, because you would think
that the institutional investors certainly knew a vaccine was coming at some point. So to bid these
stocks up to the point where they then needed to really correct is interesting. Like, why would you
do that? And I think it's because of human nature. And we don't really know.
We don't know where the paradigm ends and the bubble begins.
It's greed, right? It's just uninhibited greed. But I mean, I think, Ron, I think you
and I probably agree for the most part of this. I do agree. I think we are, we're going to see
some permanent changes in the way things are done. I was thinking about this last night as I was
picking up dinner from Chick-fil-A. I love the fact that I can just order off of that app,
go park in a parking place, and then have them bring that food out to my car, right?
It's one more solution where I don't necessarily have to go to the drive-through. I don't
have to go into the store. The restaurant industry, I think, is a good example of one where
we'll see, I think, a permanent shift in the way behavior is. And we saw a great example this
week in Chipotle announcing that digital-only store, if you saw that. I mean, I think that's so
smart to do, because I think this has changed the way consumers ultimately will want to do business,
at least to some extent. We just didn't really know it until it was kind of forced upon us.
Yeah, I wonder, did this situation accelerate those changes or would those changes maybe have never
come to the extent we're seeing now? That's an interesting. We'll look back at it 10 years and try to do a post-mortem on it.
Disney ended the fiscal year with another loss, but the fourth quarter report came with some positive news as well.
Disney Plus now has 73 million paid subscribers just one year after it launched and shares of Disney up 8% this week, Ron.
Yeah, crushed expectations. Disney Plus clearly,
the bright spot. Vaccine bodes well for the parks. But, you know, for now, still pockets a weakness,
first annual loss in 40 years. That's pretty, you know, speaking of a once-in-a-lifetime
circumstance that affects businesses, that's a big data point. So total revenue down 23%,
looking at the various segments, direct-to-consumer, not surprisingly, up 41%. But interesting to note,
a higher operating loss. Improvements at Hulu, ESPN Plus, offset by higher costs at Disney
Plus, because guess what? The rollout is going quite well, as you mentioned. 73.7 million
subscribers, you know, really strong. And let's not sell Hulu or ESPN short on kind of the
streaming side. Hulu 36 million, ESPN 10 million subscribers. So pretty cool. One year free trial
offer for Verizon customers for Disney Plus is extremely.
inspiring this week. Let's keep an eye on what that does to subscriptions, because that could be
interesting. Let's mention a couple of other things about some of the other segments. Media networks
up 11 percent. Weakness in ESPN offset by increases in FX and the domestic Disney channels.
No one should be surprised that the parks were down 61 percent. But again, the vaccine bodes well,
I think, for next year and the year after. Studio entertainment revenue down 52 percent. No big theatrical releases
versus last year we had Lion King, Toy Story 4.
So it shouldn't be a surprise there as well.
Disney announced they would not pay its semi-annual dividend.
I think that's prudent.
Let's keep kind of hunkered down here for a while until we see the actual turn.
But I do think things are looking up for Disney.
I've held this stock for years, really decades, and I continue to be a proud shareholder.
Unity Software went public in September and issued its first quarterly report after the closing bell
Thursday, the video game software business didn't just lose money, Jason. They lost nearly six
times as much money as Wall Street analysts were expecting. So, of course, shares of Unity
Software up more than 10 percent on Friday.
Well, it's an IPO, Chris. So there's lots to go through there in regard to how those
financials all play out. But I think the big picture takeaway here, this really was just the
kind of quarter you wanted to see them report is their first one post-IPO. There's nothing
crazy here. Either way, really, no real surprises. This really is just the business we signed up
for. And for those unfamiliar business with the business, Unity operates a software platform
that helps customers develop, create, run, monetize, interactive, real-time 2D and 3D content.
And it helps their clients bring more visualization and real-time experiences to more industries.
It's known for its gaming prowess, but really it's entering markets, including automotive,
architecture, engineering, and construction, many more via all sorts of interesting partnerships
from companies like Autodesk to Nvidia and plenty more. But to the quarter itself, revenue
of just over 200 million, that was up 53.3% from the third quarter of 2019. They operate in
two segments of the business. There's the operate solutions and the create solutions. The
operate solution segment of the business grew 72%. That represents about 60% of the overall
business versus the Create Solutions segment. We saw gross margin ticked down just a little bit,
but an interesting data point here that I thought tells a good story here. Customers that contribute
more than $100,000 in annual revenue to the business. That grew to 739 customers from
553 a year ago. But interestingly, the percentage of those customers total revenue,
that stayed flat at 72%. In other words, it's a sign that,
they're not growing overly dependent on those big customers, right? And that's a good thing.
They're growing that overall customer base and not relying too much on the big customers.
Dollar-based net expansion rate of 144% versus 132% shows that they're expanding the relationship
that they have guidance and check for the rest of the year. I mean, all things considered
a very good start. But yeah, we'll need to pay attention to the financials as they work all of
the IPO nuts and bolts through.
Shares of Draft Kings up on Friday after a third quarter report that came with increased
guidance for the fourth quarter. And the return of the NFL in September seems to have helped
the sports betting business, Ron. Yeah, a pretty strong quarter. And probably growth continues here
for quite some time. Revenue up 42% after adjusting for the timing of that kind of wonky public
offering that they did where they kind of backed into a special purpose acquisition company called
Diamond Eagle.
An increase of monthly unique players of 64 percent, now topping 1 million.
As you said, major league sports like NBA, MLB, NHL returned.
Very, very important.
Now, sales and marketing up significantly, about $200 million.
That's necessary.
They're live now in seven more states.
That comes with increased expenses, but that is going to be the way they grow this business.
They're making lots of moves here.
They're entering new states, both on the gambling side.
the fantasy side, the advertising side. They're signing new strategic agreements. PGA, MLB, even the Cubs
and the New York Giants are kind of now the official teams of Draft Kings. They're investing in
technology, including a standalone casino app. So lots of stuff. I even like what they're doing
on the corporate governance side, adding to directors. Michael Jordan is now a special advisor to the
board. So lots of good stuff going on. They raised their 2020 revenue guidance, introduced
2021 revenue guidance, which is pretty strong. It's going to be an interesting company to watch.
Coming up, a lesson in how one company's announcement can affect another company's stock price.
This is Motley Full Money. Welcome back to Motley Full Money. Chris Hill here with Jason Moser and
Ron Gross. Shares of Lyft up more than 20 percent this week. Lyft's third quarter revenue
was higher than expected, and they announced they're working on a food delivery service.
Ron, I don't mean to be skeptical, but that is a healthy bump in the stock price for a business
that is still quite unprofitable.
Right.
And show me the path to profitability, please, someone.
But this was a good quarter, all things considered, but I think there are many things to consider.
But all things considered, not too shabby.
Now, revenue down 48 percent.
That's year over year, not surprising.
What's important to watch is how they're doing sequentially, how things are improving.
So a 47% increase in revenue from the second quarter to the third quarter, clearly showing
improvement as things get back to normal.
Of course, now we're seeing spikes and things getting back to unnormal.
I can't predict necessarily what's going to happen there, but I think we're going to be hunkered
down clearly for the winter.
So let's keep an eye on again.
Sequential probably will be weak going into next quarter.
But there was a recovery in active riders, a 44% recovery from the second quarter.
I'm not getting in an Uber or a lift anytime soon, but clearly folks felt comfortable doing so.
For context, active riders were 12.5 million in the third quarter versus 22.3 million this time last year.
So still, you know, a big bite taken out of their business.
Net loss was around $450 million for the quarter.
They remain focused. I love this. This is the whole path to profitability thing we like to make fun of, or at least I do.
They remain focused on achieving adjusted EBITDA profitability by the fourth quarter of.
of next year. Who wants to bet that that gets pushed into 2022? I do. Proposition 22 out of California,
really important, as we discussed with Uber, just as important for Lyft and other companies
that focus on the gig worker, the independent contractor. If that had gone south for them,
it would have been a major deal. So it was extremely important that that appears to have been
passed. Balance sheets, okay, $2.5 billion of unrestricted cash. And as you said, John Zimmer,
the founder said they're getting into the delivery business, doing it differently than Uber.
They're going to partner with the companies that want these deliveries to the so-called
last mile. Be fun to watch how that shakes out.
Cisco Systems' first quarter report had the distinction of being the fourth in a row where
the company's revenue declined, and yet shares of Cisco Systems up more than 10 percent
this week, Jason. What's going on here?
Well, thank you, low expectations, right?
Chris. I mean, listen, I don't mean to sound like two glass half.
empty year, but I mean, I can't think of one reason to invest in this business, given the
other options that are out there today. I mean, it's just, it kind of feels like the IBM
of a new generation. And if you look at the numbers, I mean, that really does tell you the
story. Sales down 9% from a year ago. Earnings per share as well. Guidance is not inspired.
I mean, they've just, they've been outplayed and out innovated by all of these smarter and
nimble companies out there. And I don't think there's a reason to expect that to change.
I mean, you could have seen maybe some signs in the Cisco WebEx, the video conferencing
segment of the business, but that hasn't even really performed, given that we're living
in this Microsoft Teams and Zoom world now.
You look at this company's financials over the last several years.
Toplines going nowhere, net income going nowhere.
EPS is really only being driven by share repurchases.
They do have a relatively healthy balance sheet.
It feels to me like the biggest catalyst for this company is going to be.
be some sort of meaningful acquisition, but we're going to have to wait and see there.
Third quarter profits from McDonald's were higher than expected. Same store sales in the U.S.
rose more than 4%. But shares of McDonald's flat this week, Ron.
Yeah, you know, they beat expectations, despite revenue being down 2%. But there's some good
and some bad here. So a mixed report, global comp sales down about 2%, but in the U.S. up 4.6%.
So, U.S. clearly doing better. International down 4.4%.
So U.S. is much stronger than their international business.
Drive-through and delivery continue to be an integral part of the recovery, an essential part
of the recovery.
Their famous orders marketing campaign, Chris, did you get your Travis Scott meal during the
quarter?
I did not.
Yeah, neither did I.
But it was quite effective.
And they're doing a pretty interesting job with their marketing lately, which they've indicated
will continue.
up 5%, not too bad in this market, declared a 3% increase in their dividend. We've discussed
before, some folks cutting their dividends, some folks, business strong enough to actually increase
their dividend, which is an indication of good things to come, I think. 2.4% yield from McDonald's,
not too shabby. And they announced new growth strategies like their marketing campaigns, focusing
on digital delivery and drive-through, what they call the 3D is going to introduce a loyalty
program, McPlan-based plant menu-based, I think.
items, and most importantly, a new crispy chicken sandwich. So I'll sell the plant-based
items and I'll buy the chicken sandwich. Speaking of the McPlant, shares of Beyond Meat
down 20 percent this week, in part because of that news, Jason, but also Beyond Meat's
third quarter report was really ugly. It wasn't the best. I do agree. A bit of a tale of
two businesses. You saw the retail channel net revenues are up 39 percent. That you
You unfortunately then had it countered with food service net revenues down 41% year over year.
Now, retail is far and away the larger part of the business.
That represents about 80% of revenue through the first nine months of the year.
But interestingly, international food service really took a hit down 65%.
Total international revenue down 46%.
And all of this just ultimately results in a top line growth of just under 3%.
That's a problem for a stock that's valued the way this one is or was.
Really a knock on the business, but you have to look at the facts here. It's not a profitable
business. There's no free cash flow. And it's not necessarily, even in the good times, it's
not necessarily a high margin business either. So you have to consider that in the power of
substitutes in this market. I do think it's interesting this whole McDonald's McPlant
thing. You know, you saw McDonald's on their call playing offense. Beyond meat, they really
sound like they're playing defense. That'd be something to keep an eye on.
going forward.
All right, guys.
We'll see you later in the show.
Coming up, you may have missed it, but November has been a big month for the cannabis industry.
Details next, so stay right here.
This is Motley Fool Money.
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.
I'm Chris Hill.
The big winner on Election Day this year wasn't a Democrat or Republican.
It was the cannabis industry.
Five states had some type of marijuana legalization on the ballot, and voters in all five states
approved those measures.
Emily Flippen is a senior analyst.
at the Motley Fool and oversees our cannabis investing service, Marijuana Masters, which made
her the perfect person for me to catch up with earlier this week to talk about Election Day,
where she sees this industry going and more.
I'll get to the federal legislation in a second.
Let's start with the states, because we had five more states now, Arizona, Mississippi,
Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota.
They all approved some form of legalization.
We got more states coming in the next couple of years.
including states like Florida, Ohio, New York, they're going to have additional legalization
measures on the ballot. But for right now, given what we just saw on Election Day with five
more states, how much of a boost is this for the cannabis industry?
It's extremely important for the cannabis industry to gain legitimacy. And the more states
that have cannabis legalized, preferably recreationally for the industry, but even medicinally,
provides a level of legitimacy to their businesses right now, especially because cannabis and
marijuana is still illegal under federal law. So more states that have legalized provides a little
bit of a tailwind to businesses that may already be up and running in states where cannabis
businesses have been operating for adult use, recreational use, already legally. So it's an
incremental tailwind. I like to say that we'll see states start to fall in kind of like a domino
fashion to begin to tax the substance, to gain revenue.
from it, but the big move will have to turn to the federal government.
Well, and when you look at some of the number, and I know California is the biggest state,
so it's not like a state with the population of Montana or South Dakota can extrapolate similar
numbers, but when you look at the tax dollars that California is bringing in, it makes
a pretty compelling case.
It makes a compelling case for the states to legalize. When you look at it from the
perspectives of businesses, right? So the cannabis businesses, the people who are owning, operating
retail dispensaries, growing the product, extracting it, selling it themselves. It's not as simple
as what state has the biggest population I want to be there. Because we're legalizing on a state
level, every individual state has their own regulations about where you can sell, what you can
sell, how you can sell. All of these things make it really interesting when you look at the
the economics of cannabis businesses. It's not the same across the United States. It's highly
dependent upon individual regulations. I'll point to Florida as a market that's really interesting.
You mentioned that's a state that could potentially legalize for adult use at some point
in the future. Right now, they have medical, and they have to vertically integrate in Florida.
So that means that if you're a cannabis operator, you have to grow your cannabis yourself, you have
to change the product and then sell it yourself. You have to do everything yourself.
And it actually, because of the way they have licenses shakeout, makes for a really, really
lucrative state, more lucrative than the California market, which is seeing more pricing
pressures because they've opened up for more licenses.
Under the Trump administration, there was no appetite whatsoever for any kind of federal
legalization.
Under a Biden administration, there might be, although at this moment, control of the United States
Senate is kind of up in the air. Mitch McConnell, the current majority leader in the past, really
hasn't shown any interest in moving this type of legislation. Is it fair to assume for investors
that with Mitch McConnell, if he remains the majority leader in the Senate, federal legalization
legislation really isn't moving anywhere?
I think that's a fair statement. I try to temper investors' expectations for what a
a Biden administration may do as when it comes to cannabis. The most that Biden administration
has talked about is potentially decriminalization, which is great for, you know, a social level,
not as important from an economic level, right? So the businesses themselves would still be
dealing with a substance that's illegal under federal law. And that puts your focus towards,
okay, well, if it's not a priority of the executive branch, then this needs to be a priority of
Congress. And we've seen a lot of legislation come up over the past few years.
I'll point to the Safe Banking Act, which was passed by the House of Representatives to
open up the banking sector for legal cannabis industries at the state level.
And that simply hasn't been docketed to the Senate.
It hasn't been made a priority.
It's dying on Mitch McConnell's desk, as it were.
So I don't expect for that change in the future, not just because we haven't seen a lot
of excitement over the past few years for the Senate to take up changing legislations, but also
because we clearly have more pressing priorities in this country, in my opinion, as opposed
to getting the Safe Banking Act passed. We have healthcare reform. We have the potential for
dealing with this pandemic that we're all suffering through right now. So I just don't
think that this is top of mind for a Senate. So I would tell investors to temper their short
to medium term expectations for what could happen on a federal level.
Let's move to the company side of things, because we've talked before about a lot of
interest in this industry over the last few years, therefore a lot of startups.
and the potential for consolidation. Do you expect big companies, whether they are in this
industry or outside of this industry, but maybe want to start getting exposure to it, do you
expect over the next couple of years large companies to make investments in cannabis businesses?
Or did what we saw with Constellation brands and canopy growth, did that scare people away?
I think it will take some sort of federal legalization to really see the money start to flow
into these cannabis businesses. But the businesses that we see already taking the risk of investing
in the space are businesses that see the writing on the wall. I think Constellation brands may
have been the exception, but I'm pointing specifically towards tobacco companies, Altria Group,
making their own investments into the cannabis industry. These are businesses that need to make
those investments despite the outsized risk. I think canopy growth and Constellation brands
may be a little bit ahead of their time as that investments panning out and the losses
are accumulating to Constellation brands thanks to that investment.
What I would expect over the short to medium term, two things.
First, larger businesses.
If they are getting involved in the space, I would expect for them to have partners, to have
cash investments, not to take large equity stakes the way that Constellation brands has
with canopy growth.
And the second thing I'd expect is for actual cannabis companies, legal cannabis companies
right now in states where they operate, making investments into other businesses.
You mentioned Arizona is a state that has legalized adult use cannabis starting in January
of next year, 2021.
We already saw a current multi-state operator in the U.S. make an acquisition in that state to
try to expand their own business.
These little deals, I think, are we going to start to see shakeout as more and more states
come online.
For investors who look at this industry and think, okay, if I'm looking 10 years out, 20 years
out. I think it's bigger than than it is today. I want to start dipping my toes in the water
here. Where should they start looking? To take a completely different industry, housing,
we've talked before on this show and on other shows about how maybe jumping right in with
home builders isn't necessarily the best way to go. You can invest in housing through home
improvement companies like Home Depot and Lowe's. The quote unquote,
and shovels companies, is the cannabis industry sort of the same way that for people like me
who do not have any investments in this, starting out, look at maybe those ancillary companies
on the margin?
Yeah, that's a great way to get started in the cannabis industry.
The first thing I'll say before diving into some of those segments is, look, don't fall
for the fear of missing out in cannabis.
I think a lot of people feel like they need to get exposure.
They have to do it right now, or they're going to miss the boat.
The reality is that this is an industry that's probably going to take at least five to seven
years to really start to pan out.
And even from that point, it may take another decade to grow.
You're looking at very, in my opinion, long-term tailwinds here.
That means there's no rush.
Don't panic and go feel the need to buy every cannabis company.
But that being said, if you're interested in this space, but you're not necessarily interested
in buying a pure play cannabis industry, there's lots of ancillary plays.
You can look at retailers of hydroponics as a good example.
Hydroponics has been the cheapest way to grow cannabis, and a lot of these retailers, Scott's
Miracle Grow is a good example of a company that made an acquisition of a hydroponic retailer,
even grow generations, specifically targeting the cannabis industry.
These are two companies that have expanded as a result that are otherwise solid businesses
that aren't buying and selling cannabis themselves.
So there's lots of ways to play the industry.
If you are looking for those pure plays, then what I would consider,
is look to the U.S. A lot of the Canadian players get a lot of press and a lot of excitement,
but in my opinion, the way regulations have shook out in Canada makes it a really hard
and priced competitive market. Not to say there aren't good companies or good plays, but generally
speaking, I think the opportunities that we see in the U.S. are greater, in my opinion. Again,
hold the companies for the long term, though, because this will take a long time to play out
and for these businesses to be consistently profitable.
If you want to hear more from her, check out our daily podcast Industry Focus.
She hosted every Tuesday.
Emily Flippin, always great talking to you.
Thanks for being here.
Thanks for having me.
Up next, Ron Gross and Jason Moser return with a couple of stocks on their radar.
Stay right here.
You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
I smoke two joints at night.
Two joints in as always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about,
and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against
So, don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you're here.
Welcome back to Motley Full Money, Chris Hill here with Jason Moser and Ron Gross.
Seven weeks until the end of 2020, guys, which means there is still time for some new IPOs.
On Friday, DoorDash filed its paperwork with the SEC.
The leading food delivery app in the U.S. was last valued in the private markets at $16 billion.
What do we think?
Are they possibly going to find some takers for their stock?
I think this looks okay to me. 1.9 billion in revenue over the nine months, net loss
of 149 million, which actually isn't that bad. It seems to me they're getting close.
So it would be nice to see a profitable IPO. As you said, 16 billion is a big valuation
for a non-profitable company, but I think there are some takers here. They're the leader in
market share, 49 percent compared to Uber's 22 percent market share, Grubhubhub's 20 percent market
They've got a million delivery workers. Prop 22 also help these guys because they're all
independent contractors, of which my son was one over the summer. More than 18 million
customers. I hate the corporate governance here. Three shares of three classes of stock.
The voting power will be controlled by the founders. But what are you going to do?
That's how these things are going nowadays.
Our email address is Radio at Fool.com. Got an email from Charlie Baldwin at Lehigh University.
Go Hawks. He writes, I'm 22 years old. I've been invested in the market for a couple of years now.
Most of my portfolio is invested in tech stocks, and I own a lot of Amazon.
With this new antitrust lawsuit against Google, I'm curious how shareholders have historically been impacted by regulatory breakups.
If Amazon were to get broken up, would it be good or bad for me?
P.S, I'm a huge fan of the show. It's gone a long way in providing a foundational understanding of my knowledge in the stock market.
Thank you so much.
Thank you, Charlie. Thank you for listening and thanks for the question. Jason, I'll go to you first. What do you think?
Yeah, I mean, it's difficult to say because regulatory breakups aren't really all that common. I mean, the threat of regulatory breakup is one thing, but that threat could result in ultimately a different action like Amazon or Google would come out there and say, hey, well, what if we went ahead and spun off this business before you tried to break us up? That could solve the problem. And so that could work out. And that actually, you know, that can work out fine oftentimes. I mean, this was a lot.
wasn't a regulatory breakup, but back in 2013, Pfizer split out its animal medicine business,
Zoedis. And so now you have two companies. You have Pfizer and Zoetis. And if you go back
to that point in January where they split that out, Pfizer's total return to this point here
is around 82 percent. Zootis is 463 percent. Now, I'm a very happy Zoetis shareholder, Chris, but
that's because I love the animal market, right? I love pets. I think animal medicine.
there's just a tremendous opportunity there, and Zoedis owns that market. I think if you look
at something like an Amazon, for example, and I'm an Amazon shareholder, I mean, the plain example
would be splitting off the commerce business from the AWS business. I can see the merits
in owning both. I mean, I certainly think that they are market leaders in both respects there.
And so again, I mean, it boils down to is it a regulatory breakup or did they come to some
sort of a resolution beforehand? Either way, I mean, this together, this is a,
a phenomenal business, whether you're talking about Alphabet or Amazon, I think that if you
separate the two most important parts of it, they would continue to figure out ways to be awesome.
So I wouldn't worry too much about that at this point.
I think in general, if it's the Justice Department's goal to hurt a company's competitive
position that typically would vote poorly then for the company going forward, it might very
well be good for the consumer, but in general, a company's competitive advantage would go down.
On last week's show, we talked about how Panera is starting to test the idea of selling
alcohol in a few locations in the greater Kansas City area.
And we put out a call to the dozens of listeners for a little boots on the ground research.
And they delivered an email from Andrew in Overland Park, Kansas, who wrote a couple of weeks ago,
I went into Panera to get a coffee after work.
I found the place that was always empty, filled with people drinking.
They had turned it into a fun bar type atmosphere with wine.
and local Kansas City hard shelters and brews.
Apparently, not everybody is a fan because on my way to work today,
I stopped by the Panera near my house,
and an older couple was complaining to the manager about being there the night before.
They were offended that their favorite restaurant had become, as they put it,
a swingers bar.
Now, the characterization of this couple's aside,
Thanks to Andrew. Nobody has better listeners than we do when it comes to this. I don't know.
It seems like the test is off to a good start, Ron.
I love it. That's their favorite restaurant. That's the part of the sentence that I just loved.
I don't know. This doesn't work for me. I don't see this disaltering this restaurant in any major way.
I think it's remain what it is. The clean flu food slogan, always I found odd. But, you know,
it's relatively fine food for lunch. It's not a nighttime establishment. It's not a bar. I don't see
this taking hold. I'm just going to say one more time. Bloomberg doesn't have their listeners doing
boots on the ground research like we do. We have the best listeners. Let's get to the stocks on our radar.
Our man behind the glass, Dan Boyd is going to hit you with a question. Jason Moser, you're up first.
What are you looking at this week?
Sure. Let's open.
Open this with Cloudflare. Ticker is N-E-T. Cloudflare operates a cloud platform that delivers
a range of different network services to businesses around the world with a focus really on
edge computing. And these services focus on security, performance, reliability, internal
protections, and more. Edge computing, for those unfamiliar, edge computing ultimately
it optimizes connected devices and applications by ultimately bringing computing closer to
the source of the data being used. So, as we talk more about 5G in faster bandwidth,
and more data and more robust experiences, I mean, edge computing is going to play a big
role in that. Cloudflare's business is really interesting. Their model leaves really no stone
unturned as they serve everything from free to use to pay as you go to subscription offerings.
No customer accounts for more than 5% of revenue. The top 20 customers remain under 20% of
total revenue. All in all, they have 3.2 million.
total customers, that's free and paying subs.
You know, big-time customers like Mars, Garmin, IBM, of course, Shopify, LabCore, and many, many more.
So I think in this age of edge computing, in this move to 5G and faster everything, Cloudflare is going to be a business that's really helping get us there.
Dan, question about Cloudflare?
Absolutely, Chris.
And Jason, you know, this isn't for me, but this is for somebody who maybe doesn't know because I totally know.
Maybe you should explain what edge computing is.
Yeah. Well, you know, edge computing ultimately, it's just about bringing the actual devices
and applications, bringing computing closer to the source of the data being used.
So it's actually shortening the distance that that data has to travel through infrastructure
that strategically placed all over the world.
We've got a minute left, Ron. What are you looking at?
I got to revisit Titan International, Chris, TWI, global manufacturer of highway wheels and
tires. I've owned this for years, recommended it many times on this show. So far, it's been a rather
large blunder of mine, quite frankly. But it is showing signs of life. Shares are up 250% since
June 1st, up 65% just in November. Yes, I'm still losing money on the investment, but some
positive results. Agricultural markets look like they're going to strengthen. We could get an
infrastructure spending bill that would bode well for the construction market. Balance sheet
looks better than it has in a long time. So I'm not done yet. I'll keep updating.
our listeners. Dan? Not really a question. Chris, more of a comment, but it's very on-brand
for Ron to pick a tire company that was founded in 1890. Thank you. I do the digging for the
listeners. What do you want to add to your watch list, Dan? Well, despite Ron's absolutely glowing
summary of how Titan International has done him so far, I think I'm going to go with Cloud Fair,
or Flare rather, Cloudflare. All right, guys, thanks for being here. We're out of time. That's
going to do it for this week's Motley Fool Money. We'll see.
See you next week.
