Motley Fool Money - Amazon's Prime Move
Episode Date: January 19, 2018Amazon names the finalists for its second headquarters and boosts Prime prices. IBM breaks a losing streak. Lionsgate entertains suitors. Apple brings cash home. And Starbucks goes cashless. Plus, vet...eran auto industry journalist Paul Lienert talks electric cars, autonomous cars, Ford, and GM. Thanks to Slack for supporting The Motley Fool. Slack: Where work happens. Find out why at slack.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money Radio Show.
I'm Chris Allen, joining me in studio this week from Million Dollar Portfolio, Jason Moser and
Matt Argusinger, and from Total Income, Ron Gross.
Good to see you, as always, gentlemen.
Hey, how you're doing?
We've got the latest headlines from Wall Street.
We'll head to Detroit for a report on the automotive industry, and as always, we'll
give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar.
While we are here in the studio across the Potomac River, Congress is attempting to
keep the government open.
And we have no say in that, gentlemen.
So we're just going to stick to the business world.
Well, I mean, technically we do have a say.
I mean, these Yahoo's that are, you know, not able to make this work.
I mean, our say should just be to kick their asses out of their cushy little seats, right?
I mean, they got one job.
One job.
Hot take.
And they can't make it work.
Hot take.
And we haven't even gotten to our lead story.
We're going to begin with the corporate version of The Bachelor.
The list of cities vying to be home to Amazon's...
second headquarters has been paired down to 20. And according to odds makers in the UK, here are
the favorites. Boston, three to one odds, Atlanta and Austin, Texas, both seven to two. Pittsburgh,
and something I like to refer to as Ron Gross Country, Montgomery County, Maryland, both eight to one.
Ron, how you feel about it? Oh, no, Chris. The proposed site of Maryland is 1.9 miles from my home.
Get comfortable. Oh, there are pros and cons here. Obviously, you know, Amazon says,
says they're going to spend $5 billion in the area, they're going to employ 50,000 folks.
It should be great for the local economy, wherever they relocate. Certainly, taxes will
be generated for that municipality. But oh, oh, oh, the negatives in terms of traffic and
prolonged construction. How are you going to put the people to school, like the kids?
I mean, it's not just 50,000 people. It's 150, 200,000 people want you to take into
account entire families. I think you better be careful what you wish for. This could be a big problem.
This most stressed I've ever seen Ron Gross. Did I mention that?
You know, the value of your house might double, though. That's one thing to think about.
Yeah, now Seattle home prices have gone up 17% from a year ago, if that's any indication. And they've
been around there for a while. So that is the plus side. And I'm not one to look a gift horse
in the mouth, but this is shaky. I mean, these cities and regions, they're spread all.
across the country. But I mean, if you're betting, Jason, aren't you betting on probably at least
the eastern half of the United States? I mean, they got Seattle. I don't know. Maybe I'm just
thinking about this too simply, but it just seems to me like it's going to be somewhere in the
east. I tend to agree. I mean, I think if you look at something like L.A., and I think that
was the only West Coast city to be on the list, and I think maybe that was just a kind of humor
them. I can't fathom why they would actually pick L.A. But yeah, I mean, I think,
I'm not taking the home or point of view here, but it's kind of hard to fathom why they wouldn't
choose one of those three Montgomery County, D.C. or Northern Virginia. The other one that I think
probably comes into play here is Atlanta. Very affordable living down there. And it is obviously
growing very quickly, but there are plenty of places to live sort of outside of the Beltway
there. Big airport. The one thing Atlanta really lacks, though, is any credible form of public
transportation, but that could probably be something that they attempt to solve as well.
I'll be a little bit of a homer. I think Boston definitely, I'm not surprised it has the best
odds just because of the university, the technology, infrastructure there. Isn't it too crowded,
though? Well, it depends. I mean, Boston proper is very, very crowded.
The infrastructure is good. The big dig was a nightmare. Chris and I know for 20 years, but it's
fixed the city in terms of getting in and out of the city. And, you know, Logan Airport's a nightmare.
But I do agree. I think it's an East Coast. I think Boston or the D.C. area or Atlanta, it's
probably where it comes down to.
Oh, yeah, because the Atlanta airport is a piece of cake. No problems there.
This news overshadowed, and probably rightly so, the other news out of Amazon this week,
which is somewhat quietly run, Amazon raised the price of Amazon Prime, not the annual membership,
but the monthly membership.
Yeah, 18 percent now equal to $156 per year versus the 99.
if you subscribe annually, which is not going up to keeping that.
So one has to wonder, is this just an acknowledgement that free shipping is expensive and
they needed to raise these prices to make this viable?
Or are they disincentivizing monthly and trying to drive people towards the annual?
I'll leave it to whether you're a cynic or not, depending on which student pricing, which is
actually cheaper on a monthly basis, is also going up 18 percent, interestingly.
So, you know, this is good for Amazon, I think, because it will either raise revenue to a certain
extent or it will drive more annual prime members, which I think is the ultimate goal.
Yeah, I think that's exactly it.
I mean, it's really about enticing people to just become annual subscribers and really, I mean,
and look, it might sound like Jeff Bezos is paying me to say this, but I think you truly
are.
I think we'd all agree you're being irresponsible if you're not already a prime member.
Just given everything you get for that $99, which is the annual subscription amount, it's incredible.
Wait, is he actually paying you? Is that something we can get it on, too?
I wish he was.
For the first time since 2012, IBM's quarterly revenue rose. Fourth quarter profits also came
in slightly higher than expected. Maddie shares a big blue, still falling on Friday.
So for anyone who thought, hey, they've broken the streak, they've turned the corner. Not quite.
No. You think the first time you grow in six years might be. And by the way, they used all the
the right buzzwords in the press release. You got blockchain?
You've got enterprise. You got cloud. You got business. You got a business. You got cloud. You
blockchain, you got artificial intelligence. Wait, I was kidding. Blockchain is actually?
Blockchain's in there. Well, you think the B stands for? It's got to be in there.
They could have thrown Warren Buffett in there, too. They didn't, but they thought about it.
But yeah, all of that wasn't enough to get investors excited. We are only talking about revenue
growth of 3 percent, by the way, year over year, so it's not really a big mover. And by the
way, they did have a loss of more than a billion in the quarter, obviously because of a one-time
tax charge of $5.5 billion. That's a tax that they're going to have to pay on accumulated foreign
profits in order to bring cash back. It's also, they're lowering the valuation of the tax
credits they had because at a lower corporate tax rate, they're just not worth as much.
To me, and I think all of us agree, IBM is, I just, it's a ship with a weird rudder.
I don't know where it's going. I can't figure the company out. And I would say,
where is the growth going to come from? Can they compete with Amazon or Microsoft and
cloud? What does blockchain or artificial intelligence even do for a company like blockchain or
for their customers? I have no idea. So IBM ignore.
Fourth quarter revenue for American Express came in higher than expected, but shares falling
a bit on Friday as Amex is dealing with some charges related to the tax law changes.
Yeah, I think a lot of that stuff that Maddie was just talking about in regard to the new
tax legislation comes into play for American Express as well. I think the comp that most
investors use today to compare American Express, they compare it with things like Visa
and MasterCard. I think that's probably, they're a bit different now, and American Express is more
like a quasi sort of bank. It's interesting to note that while they will continue to pay their dividend,
they're suspending their share buyback program for the first half of 2018 in order to build that
balance sheet back up because of that bank holding status, they have to sort of adhere to some
regulations and meet some ratios there. Now, with that said, I think America expresses a good
business. There's no question there, I think. But the big hurdle they face on the card side
in the coming years, is there some deterioration in that brand?
And sort of the perceived value in being a cardholder as competition continues to heat up
with companies like Visa and MasterCard, really growing out their robust rewards programs.
I think it's a tough road ahead for American Express.
By the way, Facebook announced this week that AMAC CEO, Ken Chen Schenow, is going to be joining
the board of directors at Facebook.
Zuckerberg said he's been trying to get Cheneau on the board for years.
Does this make it, I mean, when I first saw this, my immediate thought, Jason,
was Facebook getting into payment of some form.
And if that is, in fact, the case, is Ken Cheneau the right person for that?
Well, I think that is generally the reason why something like this would happen.
I think payments, learning more how to treat consumers, Facebook is trying to figure out
how to sort of step into that realm and diversify its revenue stream.
I don't know that Cheneau is really the best name for this type of position.
He didn't exactly leave.
He's not leaving American Express on the highest of notes.
But with that said, I don't think that Facebook's entry into the payments market is going
to be something of a homegrown nature.
I think it's going to have to be something that's an acquisition of sorts.
And whatever they decide to do, it's going to cost them a lot of money to get that presence.
By the way, I think it was last week, Maddie.
Disney, somewhat quietly announcing that Cheryl Sandberg from Facebook and Jack Dorsey from Twitter
are no longer going to be on the board. I guess their terms will expire and that will be that.
So what was your take on that?
Well, it makes sense. I was surprised to see it, by the way, but it makes sense in reflection
just because if you think about what Twitter and Facebook are doing with the video content,
that's really where they're moving towards. And if they're becoming quasi-media companies
and you have major executives sitting on the board of Disney, the largest media company in the world,
It seems like there might be conflicts at some point.
I have to think Facebook has got to be disappointed because Facebook is pretty adamant about saying,
no, we're not a media company.
And now you have the Walt Disney company saying, well, we think you are.
Starbucks has a history of testing food and beverage items before rolling them out nationwide.
But one Starbucks location is testing something that could have ripple effects way beyond the food and beverage industry.
Details coming up.
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Welcome back to Motleyful Money, Chris Hill here in studio with Jason Moser, Matt Argusinger,
and Ron Gross. Shares of Lionsgate Entertainment up more than 10% this week on reports of a
possible takeover. What do you think, Maddie? Someone going to go out and buy themselves a movie
studio? Actually, I think so. I mean, we've already seen this happen in the last several years.
And so, yeah, I mean, I think there's, I'm not surprised there's chatter out there. I think Amazon, Verizon, and sounds like CBS might be potential suitors for Lionsgate. And I'll say it dovetails nicely with something our own David Gardner tweeted earlier this week that he thinks AMC networks could be a nice acquisition candidate for Netflix. But I have to say, I don't see Lionsgate. I don't see AMC. I don't see Scripps Network's Discovery. I don't see these as independent companies in a few years. Because if you think about where things are going, it's really gravitating to the big platforms.
And it's just amazing to say this now, because we wouldn't have said this five years ago.
But really, to me, it's coming down to Netflix, Amazon, and Disney.
Now that Disney's acquired Fox.
And I think all the smaller players are probably going to get gobbled up by them,
because these companies are looking for content, quality content.
And you've got Lionsgate, AMC, and others with that kind of content.
Well, and Lionsgate, when I think about Lionsgate,
the first thing that comes to mind is The Hunger Games,
which, you know, that ship has sailed in terms of their ability to really monetize that franchise.
Whereas with AMC, their track record, I think, is much stronger in terms of delivering, particularly
television hits, you know, Breaking Bad, Mad Men, The Walking Dead, that sort of thing.
Those companies are roughly the same in market cap size.
Yeah, 3 billion.
If someone's looking to buy them, isn't AMC the move here?
AMC is, well, it depends.
I mean, it's just, I think Lionsgate's got some really nice strengths when it comes to creating
films on a budget.
They do it economically better than really any other studio out there.
I think there's qualities to both.
I wouldn't be surprised if both are required within a year.
You're saying Lionsgate may not be making the Marvel franchise movies, but they're also
not going to have a John Carter-type bomb.
Exactly.
Good old John Carter.
Apple was not in the news so much this week as Apple's cash was in the news.
Apple announcing it will pay a one-time repatriation tax of $38 billion on its overseas cash.
The company also plans to invest $350.
billion dollars in the United States over the next five years. You tell me, Ron, which of those
two should investors care more about? How long have we been talking about the Apple bringing back
that cash? I mean, I think... As long as we've been doing this show. Do not feel bad about them
paying $38 billion in tax because they're saving $43 billion as a result of the new tax plan.
So that's all good. They're going to commit the $350 billion over the next five years, contribution
to the U.S. economy, $30 billion in CAP-X over the next five years. They're going to pay $2,500
bonuses to a bunch of its employees, most of them they say. So this looks really good for
both investors and the company itself. They're committing to invest in quite a bit of money
into their business, which indicates to me that they think the future looks bright.
I think the other thing to mention is that the company has returned 233 billion dollars to
shareholders through buybacks and dividends over the last five years, but that's largely
been done through debt. They've had to borrow, because all the
money was overseas and they couldn't really use it. So now that they're going to have all this
money, it's going to be interesting to see is that now they'll be able to use their own cash.
They continue to borrow if interest rates remain low. Will they choose to pay down some of
that debt now that the cash is back here? It increases their flexibility very significantly in
terms of returning capital to shareholders.
This is why it was so, I think all of us sitting at this table thought at some point there
would be a repatriation holiday of some kind. It would probably be short-term.
one year or something like that where all these companies could bring back cash, and Apple
might bring back, say, a third or half of its cash from overseas. But I think that's why
it was so powerful that the permanent change to the corporate tax rate has really changing
behavior. It's companies like Apple saying, well, if I'm going to have to pay taxes when
I earn foreign profits anyway now going forward, I might as well bring it all back to the United
States, which now has a low corporate tax rate. And so this is one of the really positive things
I think that came out of the tax reform bill. We can debate about it.
all the other issues surrounding it. But this was a powerful impact.
Yeah, I agree. I mean, it's interesting to see the divide between the politicians who really,
so many were vehemently against this tax bill. And be that as it may, I mean, it still sounds
like this is going to bring in somewhere in the neighborhood of $350 billion for the federal
government of the course of the next 10 years. Without question, the CEOs of all of these
major businesses are saying that the reason they're able to do this is because of the new tax
legislation. So, I mean, if you're an investor, you've got to be feeling really good about
this, I think.
Brian, any chance?
Did Apple say anything about like, and we're going to subsidize the iPhone again?
Keep dreaming.
They did say they're going to open a new facility in Montgomery, Maryland.
10,000 people.
The war on cash may have a new ally.
Starbucks has begun testing a cashless store in downtown Seattle.
One Starbucks is now accepting only cards and mobile payments.
And Jason, if you are Visa, among others,
I think you're doing everything you can to make sure that this test succeeds.
Well, Chris, while I am a huge proponent of the war on cash, as we've discussed many, many
times before, I actually don't agree with stores going completely cashless.
And it's just from the perspective that it eliminates choice.
And I think that when you are a retailer, a service provider of any kind, you really want
to give your consumers, your loyal consumers, as much choice as possible.
So I think there are ways to sort of steer people towards cashless transactions while still having
that cash option.
You just make it a little bit less explicit.
But we've seen this with other restaurants.
I've seen there was a piece in the New York Times that talked about some restaurants
that were doing this as well.
And I think it's taken some consumers by surprise.
And I think generally speaking, payments are moving more towards the electronic side.
But I think having the cash option is still probably pretty important.
is the last time any of us used cash at a Starbucks? Is that a big piece of their business?
I can't imagine. And again, I'm not arguing that at all. I think you simply want to have
that option because some people are going to use it. God forbid, your phone battery dies.
I mean, you can't hack a $5 bill in my hand, right?
But in terms of, I mean, going cashless also comes with some downside. I mean, say what you
want about cash, but there's no service fee attached to people.
The business is paying to do that. The business is paying to do that. On the flip side, if you
don't have to maintain a cash drawer, that's one less thing you got to worry about. And obviously,
there are bank deposit runs you have to make. So, they're tradeoffs either way. I think
ultimately, really, you just want to try to give consumers as much choice as possible, typically.
Where will the Bitcoin fit without a cash draw?
That's a very good question.
Well, I'll also think, you know, just for some people, fewer nowadays, but I just think
the anonymous factor of cash and not being tracked and recorded for every purchase I meant.
I can't tell you in the golf business how many times we'd see some of those guys coming to the shop around 3 o'clock in the afternoon.
Aren't you supposed to be working?
It'd be like, well, yeah, can I get a cart for nine holes?
I'm going to pay cash.
Let's go to our man behind the glass.
Steve Broido.
Steve, where do you come down on the whole cash versus digital payment move?
It always seems to make more sense to use debit or credit cards.
Typically credit cards with rewards when you pay them off every month.
if you can get something back. But there are still a lot of people, certainly in Japan,
people, is a cash country. And that's not going to fly over there. So I think that's something,
something to be considered. All right, Jason Moser, Matt Argusinger, Ron Gross.
Guys, we'll see you later in the show. Up next, we are heading to the Motor City to check in
on the North American International Auto Show. Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Full Money.
Welcome back to Motley Full Money. I'm Chris Hill, the North American International Auto Show,
kicked off this week in Detroit, with nearly one million people expected to attend.
Paul Linerd has spent his career covering the automotive industry, most recently with
Thompson Reuters, and he joins me now from the Motor City.
Paul, always good to talk to you.
Thank you, Chris.
I always envision you sitting in a nice, warm place, unlike Detroit in January.
I don't envy you.
I mean, I'm a little curious about the auto show, and I think at some point I'd like to get there,
but I'm not going to lie.
the fact that it's in Detroit in January, that doesn't sweeten the deal.
We'll see if we can move it for you.
I appreciate that.
What is your headline for this year's show?
Oh, boy, that sure is a tough one.
I would probably say, in three words, trucks, trucks, trucks.
We're back to trucks.
It seems like every other year or so, trucks are the big story,
and then it goes to something smaller or greener, but 2018, it's all about the trucks?
At this show, it is, General Motors is showing its new Chevrolet Silverado, brand new fully redesigned for model year 2019.
Fiat Chrysler is showing its brand new RAM-1500, also fully redesigned for model year 2019.
And Ford also has a truck.
It's bringing back the Ranger.
This one is their mid-sized truck that has been off the market for quite a few years on the U.S.
And it's coming in to do battle with the Chevrolet, Colorado, and Toyota, Tacoma.
The Lincoln Navigator, however, was the vehicle that took home the award of Truck of the
Year, Honda Accord won car of the year, and the Volvo XC-60 won SUV of the year.
Here's my question.
How much do these awards help with sales?
How much do these companies covet these awards so that they can gear their marketing campaigns
around winning?
or does it only move the needle ever so slightly?
Let me answer you in a circumspect fashion.
As long as I've been covering the auto business,
there have been Car of the Year awards and Truck of the Year awards
from various organizations.
The ones you just mentioned come from the North American Car and Truck of the Year jury,
which is composed of journalists.
The journalists would like to think they have a lot of influence.
I'm not so sure at times just how much influence we have on the buying public, particularly in this age of social media.
So let me just straddle a fence on that so I don't annoy anybody, okay?
Sounds fair to me.
By the way, I'm not on the jury, but my wife is, so I really am walking a fine line here.
Yeah, you don't want to get yourself in trouble on the home front ever.
No, thank you.
Motor came out on Tuesday with some pretty disappointing guidance for 2018 and even beyond that.
And I'm wondering, to what extent does that dampen the mood at an event like this?
Or is that just something that is confined to Ford Motor itself?
I would say Ford has some unique problems of its own.
And it stock the next day took quite a hit as investors reacted to that news, that disappointment, if you will.
The general perception is that Ford is lagging behind the other guys.
It even seems to be lagging behind General Motors here in its hometown in terms of doing more to electrify vehicles, doing more to bring self-driving vehicles to the market.
One example, GM said it's going to begin putting self-driving electric cars into commercial service early next year.
Ford says it won't have its self-driving vehicles out until 2021, and those won't be all electric.
There'll be hybrids.
This is something that you've started to focus on more in your coverage of the auto industry,
autonomous vehicles, electrification.
When it comes to self-driving cars at the auto show,
what is the biggest change that you've seen compared to a year ago?
I will tell you what I have seen is actually no change at all.
There aren't really any production self-driving cars on display at the show
because there aren't any production self-driving cars.
Tesla, I would say, is only partially self-driving.
Cadillac has just introduced a partially self-driving car.
So we're still a ways away from seeing full autonomy,
at least in the vehicles that we can buy and lease,
probably 2024, 2025, maybe.
That really jives with something I read this week,
one Wall Street analyst warning investors
who are thinking about buying audits.
stocks, because let's face it, there's a lot of coverage of autonomous vehicles and electric
vehicles. There's a lot of excitement. And all of that is understandable, particularly on an emotional
level. But this analyst came flat out and said, and I'm quoting here, we do not expect
autonomous vehicles to produce meaningful revenues before, and the time frame laid out was 2035 to 2040.
Now, Paul, even if you're an investor with a long time horizon, that is a really long time.
to wait for meaningful revenue, because that's ultimately what's going to drive the stock.
And investors do tend to be short-term thinkers, but they also tend to love stories.
For instance, that primarily is what drives Tesla stock.
Elon Musk often has a really good story to tell.
The other thing with self-driving cars is they're not going to be high volume vehicles.
We're not going to see any company making 5 million of these a year.
It's going to be more like in the thousands or tens of thousands,
because these are going to be used at least for the first five to 10 years,
primarily in big cities to replace taxi cabs and cargo delivery trucks.
That's it.
I was talking with one of our analysts who was in Las Vegas last week for the Consumer Electronics Show,
and there were plenty of things on display that are mainstream,
particularly when it comes to home assistants and smart speakers and the next generation
of high-definition TVs.
But there's also the gadgets at CES that are just sort of on the fringe that when you walk
by them on the trade show floor, you just sort of look at them and think, I have no idea
who would buy that or what use that would be in an everyday circumstance.
When it comes to the auto show, is there anything that you've seen along those lines?
I'm talking about the latter part, where you just sort of look at it and say, what is that and who would buy that?
Now, bear in mind, I go into auto shows looking for the broader things, for instance, like autonomous technology or electrification technology.
I'm a battery geek, okay?
But I think the one technology that we're starting to see more and more of this year is voice assistant technology.
For instance, Amazon Alexa is starting to be incorporated in a few cars.
And I see this as an extension of us being able to plug in our droids or iPhones into our cars
and use Apple CarPlay or Google Android Auto.
These systems sure have a long way to go to get perfected.
I've got to tell you, Siri right now sucks.
Sorry, can I say that on the radio?
I mean, don't mince words, Paul.
General Motors has been working on something, speaking of Siri,
General Motors has been working on something called Seuras,
and it's all capital letters, S-U-R-U-S.
What in the world is Searis,
and should I be excited about this or afraid of it?
Thank goodness you didn't ask me to explain what the acronym means,
because I can't remember,
but I can tell you about it because we stumbled across it,
on the lower level of the auto show.
I had not seen this thing before.
It's a concept.
Some might call it a giant skateboard, and here's what it's all about.
Envision a vehicle with four wheels.
Envision a vehicle without a cab or a truck bed or anything,
just kind of a basic flat bed from front to back.
Each of those wheels can steer itself.
There's an electric motor at the front,
and at the other end, so it can be driven in either direction.
and it's powered by a hydrogen fuel cell.
And lo and behold, it's fitted with LIDARs and radars and cameras.
So it's designed to be self-driving.
GM says it's a concept or a prototype for future use.
It can be configured to be a military vehicle, a cargo carrier, an ambulance, a commercial truck.
So it's pretty cool, but not very sexy.
It does sound very cool.
I'm curious, as we've seen over the past couple of years, the concept of ride sharing taking hold and more and more companies coming out and, for lack of a better term, buying in bulk.
To what extent over the years have you seen the North American International Auto Show transformed from being 100% aimed at consumers to being increasingly aimed towards companies so that auto-meas.
makers and truck makers, and now whatever this flatbed robot vehicle is, they're now not looking
to sell it to you or me, Paul. They're looking to sell a hundred of these in the same way that
Boeing or Airbus is looking to sell several dozen airplanes at once.
You know, Chris, you raise a really, really valid point. And I don't think we've given it nearly
enough thought, but you immediately make me think of deals such as Volvo's recent agreement
to sell 20,000 crossover vehicles to Uber. Is that important? Of course it is, because it helps
Volvo advanced technology that all sorts of consumers are going to use, but it's not about
selling cars one-on-one to consumers. Another interesting trend we're seeing at the show that
involves consumers, but to a lesser extent, and it's, I think, part of this transition.
business model that we're seeing evolving. Some new startup companies that have set up shop
at Kobo in Detroit are offering subscription services. Volvo also wants to start that. BMW wants to start
that. And what it is, is it does not require a consumer to buy a car, does not require a consumer to
lease a car. On a month-to-month basis, you can get access to a vehicle. So while Uber and Lyft and
ride-sharing companies provide on-demand access and you pay for use. This is yet another
variation kind of of a vet model, a hybrid model, if you will, that lets you buy a package that
includes insurance and maintenance, and it's one payment. You can renew it for another month. You
can swap it out for another vehicle. It'll be really interesting to see where that one goes.
One last broad question for you. 2017 was a year in which the automakers, over
sales dipped slightly from the year before, and that's on the heels of sales growth year over year
for, I believe, six or seven years in a row. You mentioned earlier that Ford Motor has challenges
unique to Ford Motor, but to what extent, if any, does the overall sales dipping affect
the mood in an event like this? I don't have a sense for any any.
and do with other factors. Among them, a vehicle ownership is just not on a lot of people's radar.
I'm talking now, millennials. I was going to say, millennials, they're ruining everything, Paul.
Yeah, I tried to tell my boys that nature. Let's wrap up with a round of buy-seller hold.
Buy-seller hold, the likelihood that a child born today will ever drive a car themselves.
sell.
So you and I don't have autonomous vehicles just yet, but grandkids, yes.
Grandkids, absolutely.
My granddaughter, who's two years old, will likely never drive a car.
I hope just selfishly, I hope they still have to go through some sort of driver's license approval test.
They'll probably have to go through iPhone training, I told them.
It's trailing Uber in terms of private market valuation, but it appears to be catching on in terms of popularity.
Buy-seller-hold Lyft.
Bye.
Do you think...
Do lots of deals with an interesting assortment of people.
They're on the muscle right now, and Uber, as we both know, has its own unique set of problems.
So that's a great opportunity for Lyft.
And finally, it's getting increasingly difficult to find so much so that the end may, in fact, be near.
buy-seller hold, the stick shift.
Sorry, as much as I love it, I got to tell you.
Paul Linerd covers the auto industry for Thompson Reuters.
You can read his stuff.
You can follow him on Twitter.
Paul, I know it's a busy week.
I really appreciate your time.
It's always a pleasure, Chris.
Thanks much.
Coming up, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar.
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Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.
I'm Chris Hillen.
Joining me in studio once again, Jason Moser.
Matt Argusinger and Ron Gross.
Guys, three quick announcements before we get to the radar stocks.
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Let's get to the stocks on our radar.
Ron Gross, you're up first.
What are you looking at this week?
I'm going to go with Retail Opportunity Investment Corp, R-O-I-C.
They're a real estate investment trust that owns and operates neighborhood shopping centers.
And they've struggled, along with other.
retail reeds because people are quite frankly a little bit afraid of retail right now.
But they're focused on wealthy West Coast neighborhoods. They're anchored by grocery stores.
I think that bodes well for them. Stuart Tan's CEO is a top-notch guy.
They've got 97% leasing rate. They've increased their dividend every year for the past seven,
and the yield is now 4%, which is not too shabby.
Steve, we've got a retail reed. Question?
Well, my question is, what product would you never buy online? Would you own
You're only buying a store, Ron?
A hot tub.
You wouldn't buy a hot tub online?
I don't know.
A tractor?
That's good answers.
A hot tub and a tractor.
I would have struggled.
You can combine them both for a true adventure, I think.
Jason Moser, what are you looking at this week?
I'm going to go Emerald on you here and kick it up a notch with Spicemaker McCormick.
Ticker is MKC.
They've got earnings coming out next Thursday the 25th.
We have this company on the watch list in MDP still, because it does fire in a lot of the qualities.
lot of the qualities we look for in good businesses, strong competitive position, capable
leadership, big market opportunities.
And I love the value prop they always spend in that they're responsible for 10% of the
cost of the food that you're eating, but 90% of the flavor.
And I am okay with that.
But the stock has kind of been in a little bit of a state of limbo since this acquisition
of RB Foods.
So I'd like to see how that is all sort of coming together.
And if for some reason we get a little bit of an opportunity, we might be giving this
thing a closer look.
You're really hoping they miss, don't you?
I wouldn't mind it all.
Steve Brod, a question about McCormick?
Well, we were talking about Amazon moving potentially to Ron's neighborhood.
McCormick is a Baltimore company, and are they doing enough to promote Baltimore?
Because you don't really associate McCormick with Baltimore.
I don't think they are, Steve.
And I tell you, we went to that factory in Hunt Valley a few years back, and boy, it is off the radar.
I think they could be doing a little bit more.
Do they have Old Bay?
Because when I think about Spice and Baltimore, that's it right there.
That's the whole ball game.
They've got it all, Chris.
Matt Argusinger, what are you looking at this week?
This has got to be a first and only, but I have the same exact stock as Ron.
What's crossed the table?
Retail Opportunity Investment Corp, R-O-O-I-C.
Ron hacked Maddie's personal computer.
We did not collaborate on this, but everything Ron said.
Plus, we just added it to our Best Buy now in Million Dollar portfolio.
And REITs, by the way, have sold off recently.
They're one of the few areas of the market that aren't participating in this historic stock market rally.
So yeah, I like the RIC a lot.
Steve Brito, do you happen to have a second?
about R OIC?
It's funny you mention it.
I have the exact same question for Maddie.
What product would you only buy at a place that would house or, you know, be a shopping center or something like that?
Oh, gosh.
I, you know, I don't know.
I could buy everything online nowadays.
Maybe a hot tub, like Ron said.
You're going to double up on my answer also?
Well, maybe a car.
I don't think I buy a car online either.
I just, you know, I've got to see it and drive it.
Steve, Reuters, two stocks.
You got one you want to add?
I think I'm going with McCormick.
All right.
Based on principle here.
Anything you'd only buy in a store, Steve?
Usually shoes I bought online as well,
but shoes I always do better buying them in the store.
All right.
Jason Moser, Matt Argusinger, Ron Gross.
Guys, thanks so much for being here.
Thank you.
That's going to do it for this week's edition of Motley Pool Money.
Our engineer is Steve Broido, our producer's Matt Greer.
I'm Chris Hill.
Thanks for listening.
We'll see you next week.
