Motley Fool Money - Bank Profits Rise Amid Credit Card Uncertainty

Episode Date: January 15, 2026

Matt Frankel, Tyler Crowe, and Jon Quast discuss: - Earnings from six of the largest U.S. banks - The president's proposed cap on credit card interest rates - Stocks on our radar Companies discussed: JPM, BAC, C, WFC, GS, MS, COF, SOFI, KLAR, FIVE, ASR Host: Matt Frankel Guests: Tyler Crowe, Jon Quast Producer: Anand Chokkavelu Engineer: Dan Boyd Disclosure: Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, “TMF”) do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement. We’re committed to transparency: All personal opinions in advertisements from Fools are their own. The product advertised in this episode was loaned to TMF and was returned after a test period or the product advertised in this episode was purchased by TMF. Advertiser has paid for the sponsorship of this episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's 2026 and banking is booming. This is Motley Fool Money. Welcome to Motley Full Money. I'm Tyler Crowe, and today I'm joined by longtime full contributors, Matt Frankel and John Quast. It's that time again, folks. Earning season, and we'll discuss earnings today. This proposal from the Trump administration to cap credit card rates because we are talking about banks. And, of course, what Thursday show would be complete without talking about stocks on our radar. But first, when I opened up Bloomberg this morning, and not my terminal, I'm not that fancy or have that kind of set up. Two related items kind of caught my eye. Two investment banks, Goldman Sacks and Morgan Stanley reported earlier today, and they had stellar results in certain sections.

Goldman mentioned its trading unit and Morgan Stanley for its investment banking fees, mostly related to helping companies issue debt. One of the ones they mentioned was meta-platforms for its massive AI data infrastructure. build-out. As we are talking right now, Goldman and Morgan Stanley are up of 4%, 5% respectively. And look, this isn't the most detailed analysis of banks, but I think it's fair to say that within bank investment bankings, they love volatility and vibes. Volatility for their trading operations, like we saw Goldman and vibes to get companies to do things like issue debt, do mergers and acquisitions, IPOs, all the cool corporate activity that banks love to do.

So, clearly, the investment banks are liking what happened last quarter. And now, Matt, you are of the three of us, probably the most extensive bank coverer or observer of banks we have. What were some of the other themes you saw from banking earnings this past quarter? Well, I'm definitely going to steal the volatility and vibes thing for an article. That's pretty awesome. But generally speaking, the bank earnings have been really solid so far. All of the big four, that's J.P. Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Bank of America,

all of them beat expectations, both on the top and bottom lines. Interest income has been a very strong point, which is to be expected as Fed rate cuts generally result in lower deposit costs for banks. For example, Bank of America's net interest margin grew by 11 basis points year over year. The bank expects 5 to 7 percent additional net interest income growth this year. So very strong. Equity's trading was another strong point, which, like you mentioned, investment banking loves volatility. It's common in times of market turbulence. Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase,

just to name another two examples, in addition to Goldman and Morgan, they saw equities trading revenue rise by 23% and 40% respectively. Another interesting trend that I saw is consumers appear to be stronger than many experts thought, or at least more confident, maybe not stronger. Deposit growth has been stronger than I thought. Loan growth has really been stronger than I thought. Bank of America's loan portfolio grew 8% year every year. And most banks have reported lower than expected loan loss provisions, indicating that their loans are performing well. So the big question, in my mind, anyway, is why did the big four bank stocks drop after

earnings yesterday? As you said, Goldman and Morgan are lifting the sector today. But the initial reaction to all the big bank earnings was negative. There wasn't much to dislike in their earnings reports, although some banks missed estimates on investment banking fees, some missed estimates on fixed income trading. But these stocks have been excellent performers over the past year. Just to name a couple, Wells Fargo is up 65% in 2025 alone. Goldman Sachs gained 50% last year. So a pullback on what I would call strong but not stellar earnings isn't that big of a surprise. I want to broaden the lens a little

bit here because I think bank earnings is like holding up a mirror to Wall Street and the market writ large. And so I think it's a good way to kind of focus on the vibes a little bit. And John, I'll send this to you because things like large debt issuance, M&A activity, IPOs, you know, things like don't happen as much when everyone on Wall Street is miserable. So like when you have, you know, seeing these earnings, a little bit of the vibe check, John, where does your mind go as an investor when looking at what these results say about market vibes? Yeah, I think a lot about incentive structures at a time like this. I think everyone knows that I'm not like Matt Frankel. I'm digging into the big banks. That's not how I roll, but it does make me think big picture because of that. I'm not thinking about it down on the detail level. I'm zooming out. And when investment banking is humming, the economy is strong, look, for good businesses, that's a good thing. There's nothing to complain about with that. But there are some incentive structures. that push more things in the space, and so bad things can slip through.

And so as one example, I'm a little bit suspicious of IPOs right now. I think that there are good companies that can come public right now, but there are also some bad companies, perhaps, that are seeing a window of opportunity and saying, hey, let's go ahead and get through now while the getting is good. For example, a lot of special purpose acquisition companies have come public in recent months. So that's kind of a blank check, not really a business there who knows what that's going to be. I think a company like Fermi, this is a data center play, but without data centers yet. So it's like looking way out into a decade into the future.

Can it work out? Certainly can. But is it a little bit more risky than perhaps we would see in other times? I think it is. So I think that discretion is a very important quality for investors to have, particularly with IPOs when investment banking is strong. And similarly, I'm suspicious of merger and acquisition deals. So, good companies can pull these off, and I can think of several companies off the top of my head. Good companies will pull these off. In a time like this, when investment banking

is strong, hey, great. They can get better access to capital and make some deals happen. But, again, other companies with slowing growth can make some bad acquisitions and in the end destroy shareholder value. And so I think, once again, having that suspicious eye, having discretion as a shareholder is important. One deal that I'm looking at under a microscope right now is MobileI in its $900 million acquisition of Menti robotics. Look, I get the big picture idea with vertical integration in robotics in this real world application, perhaps a big trend over the next decade, humanoid robots. But is this a value creation deal? Is this the right deal right now for MobileI? I'm not convinced yet. I'm still thinking about it. So I think it's

important for investors to similarly evaluate M&A deals right now. Certainly appreciate the Charlie Munger invert, always invert sort of approach here, where whether good vibes means more good vibes are on the way or good vibes are kind of making those grasps at the next leg of growth in ways that we don't normally think of it that way. Well, a little bit on the vibe check thing, especially for banks, is that the Trump administration proposal to cap interest rates came out this week and we'll take a look at the ripple effects of capped credit card rates after the break. The old adage goes, it isn't what you say, it's how you say it, because to truly make an

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first of all, more than this is, what are the chances of this happening for us as investors? And if so, what are the potential outcomes? So for now, let's focus on the potential outcomes aspects. I think that's a good discussion for us to have here and kind of little like scenario, planning, game playing, however you want to put it. Matt, like, if we put this into the scenario of it actually happening, how does this look on paper? Yeah, I mean, I think everybody agrees that there's a credit card problem in the United States. It's definitely a problem. We have way too much credit card debt. We're paying too much in

interest every year. I don't think a 10 percent credit card rate cap is practical, nor do I think it's the best solution to the problem. It certainly is a problem. The unintended consequence would be that credit card companies would essentially be forced to drop consumers that represent a relatively high credit risk, and not just like the bottom customers. I'm talking about anyone without stellar credit. Think of it this way. If a bank is forced to cap credit card interest rates, at 10%, and their cost of deposits is 3% for savings accounts, that's a 7% gross margin. Consider that many credit card companies, like Capital One, for example, have a 6% to 7% charge off rate. That would eliminate that profit entirely. That's before you even factor in the cost

of providing credit card rewards that everyone signs up for these things for, and the general cost of running the business, having branches, having offices, things like that, credit cards would be completely unprofitable. The only way to make that work would be to get rid of all the top tier credit customers, who ironically are the least in need of access to credit. This would likely have very broad economic consequences, in addition to herding bank profits, such as sharply lower consumer spending, is people would be more hesitant to spend money. Yeah, the people who don't carry a credit card balance, but benefit from all those perks are a little bit of a loss for a lot of credit card companies. So certainly one of the things you could see going away

pretty quick. And to be honest, and I'm a little dubious of the practicality of this as well, we actually saw something relatively similar trying to get implemented during the Biden Biden administration back I think 2022, 2023. They tried to cap interest rates on payday lending using the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. But instead of delivering interest rate savings to the borrowers who are using payday lending or other small, some short-term, uncollateralized loan products, it just made payday lenders much more selective in terms of credit rating and the ability to get people pay back because they wanted to lower their counterparty credit risk rather than benevolently give up interest rates. So I struggled to see a different outcome in credit cards

that what we saw in payday lending, even though payday lending is a much, much smaller business than credit cards. That said, John, as you mentioned in our pre-show planning, there are some people that say, look, this can work, it will work, and it's not just consumer advocates. Well, one person who is very excited about this idea of capping credit card rates is Sebastian Simatowski. He's the founder and CEO of Buy Now Pay Later Company Klarna. So not exactly a neutral party. He does have incentive to see this. And because, listen, he's actually publicly advocating for a 0% cap on credit cards going even further.

And so this would, in theory, benefit a company such as Klarna, which is why he's very excited about it. You look at Buy Now Pay later. It's 0% interest over 12 months. And so some people are looking at this as, okay, if we cap credit cards at 10% or 0%, that would push them more into competition. with Buy Now Pay later. But as Matt Pay points out, I mean, it's not that simple. You change the entire financial structure of a credit card when you change the cap rates. And so it impacts the credit card points slash miles and what they're offering. They're going to drop certain customers because the profits just aren't there. In fact, Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo points out

that at the current proposal, it would wipe out one year of credit card profits. And so that completely upsets the Apple card in this industry for sure. Yeah, it would, in theory, push more people to a company like Klarna, which is why Sebastian Simikowski is so in favor of it and why I think that maybe we should watch companies in this space. And as a reminder, you know, Klarna is more than just buy now, pay later. It also has its fair financing product, fair financing service. This is a allows for larger purchases, and it's more than for payment installments. And so this is a little bit more towards the credit card territory as far as what people are buying. So, yeah, maybe a proposal like this completely pushes people towards these companies

like Klarna and more neobanks. Yeah, certainly the buy now, pay later proliferation might make it, again, you're trying not to inject too much of my own thoughts into it. But again, again, I'm dubious, but having the proliferation of Buy Now Pay Later might be able to help thread the needle with something like this here. So, John seems a little bit more on board with Buy Now Pay Later as companies to watch. Should this happen? Matt, I know you're a Buy Now Pay Later fan as well. But again, not considering the probability of this actually happening, what are some of the banks specifically, the traditional bank credit card companies that you see would be more affected than others?

Yeah. So, I mean, just to be clear, I don't think a 10% rate cap has any chance of happening. But we could see some sort of restriction on the credit card industry. It's kind of a bipartisan thing now. The president messaged about it, and Elizabeth Warren has been crusading for this for years. The two of them actually had their first ever phone conversation about this. So some sort of restriction could be placed on the credit card industry. So there are the obvious credit card heavy banks, like you have your Capital One, you have your American Express.

But, I mean, all the big four, the Bank of America, JPMorgan J.C. Citigroup, Wells Fargo, all have substantial credit card exposure. So, I don't think that the 10% thing's going to happen. But think like, I mean, John mentioned Buy Now Pay Later as an obvious beneficiary. But think of any company that focuses on alternate ways of borrowing money, home equity loan companies, companies like SOFI, the president said absolutely nothing about capping personal loan interest rates. So anything that offers alternative ways of providing the credit that Americans have grown

accustomed to could be companies to watch here. There will always be a new and inventive way to get access to credit. That's one thing that banks are very, very good at doing. After the break, we'll do stocks on our radar. In a world full of noise, long-term thinking stands out. On the Capital Ideas podcast, Capital Group leaders explore the decisions that matter most in investing, leadership, and life. It's a rare look inside a firm that's been helping people pursue their financial goals for more than 90 years. Listen to the Capital Ideas podcast from Capital Group, published by Capital Client Group, Inc. And we'll wrap up the show here, as is our Thursday tradition with stocks on our radar. We drew straws at the beginning, and John gets to go first this week. John, what are you

looking at? Yeah, I'm looking at five below, ticker symbol F-I-V-E. This stock is hitting 52-week highs, getting back close to all-time highs that it reached a couple of years ago, so maybe listeners wish that I would have highlighted this sooner. But I have highlighted it before, but I'm highlighting it here again today. Just as a quick reminder, this is a discount retail chain for teens and preteens. New stores have a really short payback period of about a year, so that's really cool. When they use that cash, they make it back in profits pretty fast. And they're going from roughly 1900 locations today to over 3,500 long term is what they're targeting. But Tyler, do you know what the problem is with a chain like 5 below? The name. Five below means items that are priced at 5.5.

or less. And so with inflation, investors have worried that a company like this may be not able to raise its prices as it needs to. And new management came in last year, though, and is proving that indeed this business can. So old management had a five beyond section of the store and it did okay. So basically, that was a section of the store where it was more than $5. New management came in, got rid of that section, and just started selling products at all price points throughout the store. customers have not cared at all. In fact, they are buying these higher priced items. It's boosting same store sales far beyond what management expected. So the holiday same store comp is supposed to come in at 14.5%. Management only thought it was going to get 6 to 8%, so roughly doubled its expectations.

I think at this, 5BELO unlocking these higher price points bodes extremely well for the business long term, and it's why I'm looking at this stock today. Certainly a nice interesting dynamic era with a traditional box retailer. Matt, what are you looking at? And I think it's going to be a bank. My guess. I'm looking for Capital One. Wouldn't you know it? The president wants to cap credit card interest rates at 10%. And Capital One pulled back by 10% in response. Kind of nice coincidence there. As we've discussed, the 10% cap is unlikely to happen. I don't know what's going to happen, but I mean, this bank has excellent profitability. It trades for less than 12 times earnings right now. The Discover merger, which was completed last

year creates some really interesting possibilities. Capital One is now the only major bank that owns a payment network. It will take time, but the company is gradually moving its own portfolio, especially debit cards, onto the Discover network, saving the interchange fees that it would normally be paying to Visa and MasterCard. And it could ultimately provide third-party processing for other bank's cards with its own network. Capital One, it's a founder-led bank. A lot of people don't realize that. It's the largest founder-led bank in the country and has an excellent credit card business, a massive customer base, especially now after the Discover merger. It's doing a great job of taking deposit market share from the other branch-based institutions by offering things

like high-yield deposit accounts that the big Ford don't offer. So Capital One's one that I'm really watching right now. Well, I go last, which is typical of my B-track, deep cut, whatever you want to call the slightly off-brand stuff that I like to do. And the company I'm looking at is Southeast Airport Group or Grupo Aeropo. El Serrest, apologies for the bad pronunciation. Either way, they both, whatever name you choose to say, the ticker is ASR. This is one of the three companies in Mexico that has an operating license to operate airports in the country. And as the name's success, it suggests most of the airports are in the southeast. It owns the operating license for Mexico's second largest,

second most busy airport, which is Cancun, and is one of the larger sort of operations in the country and is a little bit more touristy focus because of the Southeast exposure. But it is an incredibly lucrative industry, one that people don't think of very much, because it's basically like they get a, it's almost like a regulated utility in the sense where their profits are kind of capped and they have these set fees for everything they do. But they basically have a regional monopoly wherever they work because it's an airport. You don't get a lot of competition when it comes to airports. So it's been an extremely lucrative business for more than like 25 years.

They basically are allowed to raise rates as they put in new capital plans, very similar to regulated utilities we see in the United States. And basically anything that involves higher traffic, so higher tourists and things like that, it's been a very good time in the southeast area of Mexico, at least with operations in the airports. It's a company right now. It stock trades about 15 times earnings. It has an irregular dividend. It's past 12 months. It paid an 11% dividend. I wouldn't expect that to happen again in 2026, but still, it tends to pay rather lucrative difference over time. So a solid long-term business trading at a pretty cheap valuation, and one that has a propensity to throw off cash is

something that I really like to own. And that is what I can give you for that one. And that brings us to the end of the show. We've got five below, Capital One, and the Southeast Airport group as our stocks today. All the time we have, Matt, John, thanks for sharing your thoughts. As always, people on the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about, and the Motleyful may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motleyful editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored, confident, and provided for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

Thanks for producer Dan Boyd and the rest of the Motleyville team. For Matt, John and myself, thanks for listening, and we'll chat again soon.