Motley Fool Money - Big Banks Cash In, IBM Crashes Out

Episode Date: July 14, 2026

BM gave its investors a heads up about the upcoming quarter, and the market didn’t like what management had to say. The company’s pre-released earnings were lower than analyst expectations, and its raising questions about the spending priorities for IBM’s clients. Plus, the big banks all had blowout earnings reports, and it isn’t just from cashing in on the SpaceX IPO.Have a question? Email us; [e-mail] Want to take the next step in your investing journey? Explore Motley Fool’s Epic for our portfolio-centered investing experience, premium research, tools, and guidance: fool.com/epic Tyler Crowe, Matt Frankel, and Lou Whiteman discuss:- IBM’s no good, horrible, no good, very bad day.- Shifting spending habits from enterprise clients.- America’s biggest banks reaping huge windfalls- Mailbag: How to buy Treasuries?- Mailbag: What to make of ToastCompanies discussed: IBM, MU, GS, BAC, JPM, WFC, C, TOSTHost: Tyler CroweGuests: Matt Frankel, Lou WhitemanEngineer: Bart Shannon Disclosure: Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, “TMF”) do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement. We’re committed to transparency: All personal opinions in advertisements from Fools are their own. The product advertised in this episode was loaned to TMF and was returned after a test period or the product advertised in this episode was purchased by TMF. Advertiser has paid for the sponsorship of this episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Big banks are loving this market. Today, on Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing. Welcome to Mottley Fool Hidden Gems Investing. I'm your host, Tyler Crow, and today I'm joined by longtime full contributors, Lou Whiteman and Matt Frankel. As I kind of hinted with the intro, we're going to get into the blockbuster quarter that just about every bank had that reported today,

and it was pretty much anybody that is a major bank in the United States reported today, and it looked fantastic. We're also going to get into some reader emails, But first, we're going to start with the big kind of news moment of the day. And that is shares of IBM are down 26% as we are taping this show after the company issued preliminary results for the upcoming quarter that really were not in line with analyst expectations. Now, Lou, this was a big drop.

I saw a Bloomberg headline earlier before we got on. It was the biggest drop since I think 1968 for the stock, more than Black Monday in 1987. So what was this big drop for what, it seemed to me, was a relatively modest revision to what we're seeing. There had to have been more to the story here, right? Yeah, I think there is. How did you say this isn't the full earnings release?

This is preliminary. IBM, basically all they warned is revenue is going to come in about $17.2 billion, short of $17.9 billion. It's not a huge amount. I think what triggered to sell off is kind of the reasoning given CEO. Arvin Krishman said, last few weeks of June, IBM saw clients shift KAPX towards hardware, servers, memory storage away from Big Blue. That's probably not just a last two weeks at a quarter thing. Given the way the stock had traded up, I think that this is a head for the exit, sell the news, sort of a move. Yeah, something in the difference of a $700 million change in revenue. Yeah, the number sounds big. But again, we're talking about $17 billion. give or take a few hundred million. That's not a big deal. Now, Matt, the three of us did a live event from the Motley Fool back in San Diego a few months ago. And you made the case for IBM stock

as one of your top picks right now. Now, I'm not trying to put you on full blast year because the stock is down and, you know, oh, let's all make fun of Matt. But does anything that announced today alter your thinking here? Like we said, this isn't a huge revision, but there's some, seems to be some other stuff going on here. Yes. I mean, so first of all, I welcome being called out when I make a public call on a stock like this and then, you know, something like today happens. As, as Lewis said, the numbers themselves weren't too awful. I mean, that, you know, $17.2 billion versus $17.9 billion, that's not worthy of a 26% drop all by itself. But there is more to the story. I mean, earnings per share came in at $293 versus expectations of 302, not worthy of a 26%

drop. This would be IBM's worth single day ever, by the way. The previous biggest one-day drop they had was Black Monday in 1987, and this would exceed that. So the question that seems to be on investors' mind and the one that is more worthy of the drop we're seeing is if the shift towards spending more on things like memory and other hardware is a temporary headwind, or is it becoming a permanent problem for companies like IBM? So Christian's own explanation is that clients redirected their late June cap-x towards, server, storage, and memory to lock-in supply ahead of price hikes. Remember, we've seen Apple raise its prices recently, specifically because of memory. Same idea here. So that sounds like a temporary reaction by IBM's customers to soaring memory prices.

But on the other hand, Micron recently said that memory supply is going to be tight well into 2027, and we're starting to see these memory companies shift toward longer-term price-agreed service contracts. So that's what kind of scares me about this long-term. Yeah, and this is what kind of bugged me about it a little bit as well. I mean, if this was just a one-off, like, yeah, you know, things are going to get shifted maybe six, nine months down the road. Again, $700 million in sales, not the biggest thing. It seems like this was a big move for a short-term headwind. But, you know, when I see things like this, and let's all be kind of honest here, there's a lot of institutional investors who and high-fords of traders and might know a little bit more because they can pick up the phone and ask a few things. One of the things I kind of think of is there might be more than one cockroach in the kitchen here. So as we're looking forward, investors that are looking at IBM maybe want to think like, oh, man, maybe this is just a good time to buy some cheap shares because of what we've seen today.

You know, what else could be coming down the pipe that may assuage investors or maybe something that may signal it's an actual rough patch? What are some other things that we can look for that may be promising or, you know, signs of worse to come? Yeah, so one thing we don't have yet, and Lou mentioned, this is just the preliminary report, we don't know everything. We don't have IBM's bookings yet, meaning the future revenue that is now that is being committed to. That's been a big driver of the stock in recent quarters, especially on the AI side of the business. But judging by Christian's generally negative tone that we've heard today, I'm not expecting the bookings number to look nearly as stellar as it did last quarter. The fact that they preannounced is really the biggest red flag here. And that's what's, you know, that's usually reserved. things are especially bad. So my bottom line is that today's move makes sense. It isn't a reason to panic. To be transparent, IBM is a relatively small position in my portfolio right now. So I'm planning to cautiously add to it a little bit if this price holds. The risk reward makes a lot of sense to me, especially if you have a five plus year time horizon. At that San Diego event you mentioned, I talked about

things like how IBM's quietly becoming the quantum computer leader as part of my thesis. But I'm be watching their full earnings report when it comes out on July 22nd very closely. That's my birthday and that's how much I'm paying attention to this. I'm still going to be reading it. I think it's important to mention just when we talk about, you know, is on sale today. It's basically the drop means we're back to where we were in mid-bay. So before people like yell or, you know, go out, it's a buying opportunity. You know, I do think that perspective is needed. I, the real question here, as Matt hinted at this is, is that there is a way to spin this as it's a temporary phenomena and it will pass. There is also a way to read this as what IBM is selling isn't

as important to the end customer as what they are buying. There's almost a question about with consumer we talk about staples and discretionary. There is a way to spin this that IBM is in the discretionary bucket and not the, you know, staple bucket here. I don't know if that is the right reading, but I think that's a word of caution. And you think about this, just there can't be, you can't spend all the money on the world on everything. At the end of the day, corporations have to make choices. The choices they made in this quarter did not benefit IBM. And I mean, I would agree with that that IBM is more in the discretionary basket than, you know, consumer staples, especially when it comes to what we're talking here.

Like, you know, you can hire all the AI consultants you want to. If you don't have enough memory to keep your systems going, that really doesn't matter. So when it comes to what their clients are spending money on, it is more of a discretionary thing. And that's why we're seeing revenue kind of, you know, ebb and flow during this AI cycle. And, you know, as, as Lou said, let's keep this all in perspective. Over the past three years, IBM is speeding the market. Over the past five years, the IBM is beating the market. over on a total performance basis.

So, yeah, it's been this past, like you said, it's about the same where it was in May. It's about the same where it was in January. 2026 has not been IBM's shining year so far, but, you know, if we start pulling back the curtain, things are still looking okay. We'll have to see whether or not this is a foreboding sign or maybe just, you know, a temporary roadblock.

But we will see. Coming up next, we're going to really jump into bank earnings. In 2026, I've been trying to improve my health, but here's the thing I've found. If you're not tracking your blood work, you're basically flying blind. That's why I'm excited to partner with Rhythm. Rhythm is the world's easiest blood test to help you learn what's happening inside your body. It takes about two minutes at home, no needles, just a sleek and painless collection device that sticks on your arm. Once your blood is collected, you put the sample in the package that Rhythm provides,

and they will even arrange to have it picked up from your front door. I did my first test about a month ago. The rhythm kit came in the mail. I drew my blood in about two minutes. Couldn't be easier. The results were live in about two days and their portal makes it easy to understand what's going on. They've even got an AI health coach to help explain your results and recommend actions. Since I got my labs, I've changed the way I've eaten.

Pounds are starting to come off and it's easy to determine if something like a GLP1 is right for you. I'm not one to run to the doctor. So the fact that I can do this at home and get fast results is what has me hooked. and my second kit is already on the way. Rhythm is only $79 per month, a fraction of traditional lab testing. Ships right to your door and you can cancel any time. Right now, Rhythm is offering our listeners

15% off for your first month and free shipping at Rhythm.com slash fool. That's Rhythm with 1H, RY, T-HM, Health.com slash fool for 15% off your first month and free shipping. Stop guessing, start testing, rhythmhealth.com slash fool. So I was checking the earnings calendar for today, and of course, we had all the big banks, and then there was one other company, Fasannol, which I felt kind of funny. It was almost like one of these things is not like the other sort of situation where it's like,

yeah, we're going to talk about gigantic banks, and then an industrial parts distributor. But, you know, considering how robust and, you know, beating expectations that pretty much every bank posted, it seemed like it was the more appropriate thing to talk about than this small industrial parts manufacturer, which maybe for another time. You know, today, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup all reported earnings, and all of them reported better than expected results. I think the theme of this quarter was massive gains in equity trading. I think Goldman Sachs led the way where they had a, they brought in $7.5 billion in equities trading this quarter alone. Now, we can say that it was stock volatility and the SpaceX IPO that results in

some one-off gains. But are there some kind of less discussed themes that led to all these companies posting such good results? Yes, I mean, you're right, Tyler, that the results were generally excellent. And not just in, they're not just typical earnings beats here. I mean, J.P. Morgan Chase reported $7.70 in earnings per share. That's almost $2 more than expected. They beat revenue expectations by about $7 billion. Not even close. And it's not just investment banking. I mean, Wells Fargo, their earnings beat by a significant margin. even though they have a very small investment bank. I push back a bit on when it comes to equity training,

on the one-off framing that you just said around, the volatility in SpaceX IPO. We're seeing M&A at a level that we haven't seen since 2021. Global M&A was $3 trillion in the first half. And so it wasn't just one dealer IPO. It's a general, like, industry-wide trend. The question is how sustainable is it? But to more directly answer your question,

one thing that I'm not seeing discussed that much is the net interest income. of this. Even with the Fed essentially on hold right now, the banks are generally raising their net interest income expectations. I mean, J.P. Morgan Chase, they're expecting $2.5 billion more in full-year net interest income than they were in April. They're seeing strong loan growth. The internal rate dynamics, meaning what they're paying on deposits versus what they're getting on loans is better than expected. There are a few other big themes. Wealth management inflows across the board. Investors are putting money to work that had been.

on the sidelines. J.P. Morgan reported 44,000, quote, first-time investors. Goldman's assets under management grew by 20% year every year, and the market isn't up by 20%. More importantly, credit quality is holding up better than we expected. The big banks, they're reporting lower than expected chargeoffs almost across the board. And it shows that despite some major economic fears, you know, inflation, the Iran War, things like that, consumers and businesses are still staying pretty healthy. Yeah, Matt did a great job breaking it down. I'll just make a couple quick points. One, on net interest margin. Higher for longer works with banks. I'm going to just go up and scream that from the hilltops. Finanials make so much sense to me right now, where they

are valued, especially in the regional banks. I think let's learn a lesson from this in terms of what the interest rate cycle means for banks. The other thing, let's just do a special shout out for City. City is usually the butt of a joke when we're discussing banks. They have a long history of screwing things up. But CEO, Jane Frazier, the restructuring program seems to be working. They're hitting goals ahead of schedule. They raised a dividend by 12 percent, announced a 30 billion with a B-Share buyback program. City is the laggard of this group in terms of multiples. The investor takeaway here is maybe it's time to take City seriously. Maybe it's time to give a look. Yeah, Matt, to your point, you know, saying it wasn't necessarily a one-off event,

but it certainly does feel like a vibes sort of event. Like you said, M&A activity is high. activity is high. Money is moving off the sidelines and into the, you know, to use the term, the animal spirit seem to be really hitting everybody right now and everybody seems to be cashing in. And of course, the house tends to win. And the house in this case is the big banks. I want to drill into something a little bit more specific, though. And it was a few weeks back. The banks, all of them went through their stress test, basically working with regulators to figure out, you know, how much capital you need to keep on the books in the event of a credit event, you know, a lot to do with Dodd-Frank back after the great financial crisis, just to making

sure that we don't run into the same problems we had again. And most of them passed with flying colors this time, in part because the regulatory stress test wasn't quite as robust it has been in years past. So so much so that there were discussions at the time about accelerated buybacks and other ways of kind of releasing capital that was on the balance sheet for safety reasons. Did that play any part in these results and that has all these stocks doing incredibly well? Or is that maybe just a later down the road sort of story? Yeah, wouldn't I play a part in the results? It might be part of the enthusiasm today.

Although, look, the bank's got a nice boost when it was announced. I think why we're seeing the stocks moving higher, it's kind of, it's a simple answer. It's today's results. If one bank shows resilience, that's great for that one bank. with the across-the-board positivity. That sort of implies that wasn't a one-quarter fluke. It wasn't a one-time thing from anyone. There's a lot of fear and nervousness when it comes to the financials right now.

I think just the across-the-board success today, that should alleviate some of that nervousness. Coming up after the break, we're going to jump into the mailback. Morning Brew Daily breaks down the biggest news in business every morning so it fits seamlessly in your day. I'm Toby Howell. And I'm Neil Freyman. And each morning we cover everything from the latest tech headlines to why nobody can afford a house right now. You'll leave each episode of Morning Brew Daily smarter and ready to take on the world around you. And some people are saying it's the best part of their morning.

Because we know something you don't. Business news doesn't have to be boring. Join millions of monthly listeners and check out Morning Brew Daily wherever you get your podcasts. Every Sunday we cover the week's tech news on this week in tech. Hi, this is Leo LePort, inviting you to do. to join me, Lisa Schmeiser, Jason Heiner, and Owen JJ Stone. We're going to talk about how all those prices are going through the roof. And who do we blame?

We blame AI. Fable is back. It's expensive. And the Supreme Court does something good for a change. All of that. This week on this week in tech, you'll find it at twit.tv and wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everyone. Just a quick reminder, if you want to ask a question to us and have a read live on air,

go ahead and it's an email us at Podcasts at Fool.com. That's Podcast with an S at full.com. Three requests as always, keep it foolish, keep it short enough I can read on air, and try not to ask any individual advice so we don't get in trouble with the SEC. Now, we normally only do one, but we're going to do a two for today because we actually got a little bit of fan mail for Lou on this one because somebody apparently is a big fan of you talking about T-bills either here on the podcast or in some of our live appearances that we do for members.

over at the Mali Fool. Lou, the question comes from Marion and says, Lou often mentions that he parks money in T-bills. Could you give us a tutorial on how to actually buy T-bills? So, Lou, take it away. Sure. Well, first off, the argument for it is, it's not, it doesn't replace equities, but look, right now I'm getting almost 4% on six-month bills. If that's better than most online savings accounts, so why not just chase to yield? As far as how you buy them, a couple of pointers, you can buy treasuries through the U.S. government at treasury direct.gov, or you can do it through most brokerages. There isn't a different price or different rates, so it's really how you want to do it. I buy through Vanguard, but I know some people like to separate it out. I've heard good things about

Treasury Direct. That's whatever you want to do. Actual user experience varies by brokerage. It's very similar to buying stocks, though. You just click buy bonds, select treasuries instead of corporates. You can buy existing treasuries on the open market, but what I do is I buy new issues and just hold the maturity. The most confusing thing or the thing you might want to look at is the way they're priced. You buy new issues in $1,000 increments, but you don't pay face value. You pay the amount before interest. So if you pay, say, $980 today and get $1,000 back in six months, for example, that's the most confusing part. Other than that, pretty straightforward. And again, It's kind of just as an alternative to savings accounts.

When the rates are better, why not take advantage of the rate? Well, Marian, I hope that answers your question. And back to our kind of stock-related ones. We got a question from Brian, and he really went out of his way to say that he's from corn country of Illinois and not just some other part of Illinois. And Brian asks, guys, what is up with toast? I've owned it for about two years, stocks down quite a bit. Molly's full podcast and not to, you know, not to.

Brian's email, but in a lot of other places, within the Motley Fool's kind of extended universe of media, we've talked positive about Lee, and it's been used rather ubiquitously. I think it has a decent market share right now. Brian asked, restaurant parking lots usually seem full. I'm aware, costs have increased,

and margins are tight. Is this a lost cause stock toast? I usually hang up stocks a couple of years. What are your current thoughts on toast? Yeah, so, I mean, I'm a fan of toast. To be fair, I'm one of the ones that you're referring to that usually speaks positively of it, so that's probably not a surprise.

But the growth story here is still intact despite any AI disruption fears. So annual recurring revenue grew by 26% in the last quarter. They added 7,000 new locations, so it's a product that's still resonating with customers. Their margins are excellent. Their operating margin, not adjusted, was above 20% for the first time ever

in the most recent quarter. They're aggressively buying back stocks, so that management clearly thinks the stock is under price. I mean, the bare case here is with all software as a service businesses like this, is that AI agents are eventually going to commoditize it and kind of drive down users, drive down pricing power, things like that. Toast is nicely insulated from this for a few reasons. So number one, it owns the full stack, meaning hardware and software.

The little toast, the things that servers hold in their hands only work with Toast software. It has done an excellent job of building out its own AI tools. And the fact that it's used in 171,000 locations right now, that's a pretty competitive advantage in an industry that has a somewhat transient workforce. You know, if you're already trained on toast in one restaurant, you can easily move to another restaurant and it's a lot less friction to move jobs. There are some risk factors here to keep in mind for sure. I mean, memory costs we've talked about in other segments,

they're expected to be a pretty big margin headwind to toast because they have a lot of memory needs. There's a lot of competition. Clover has more locations. Just toast has more volume. Square, you know, Block Square is still a big part of the restaurant industry. And this is still not a chief stock. But as long as it keeps growing the top line at 20% year every year and is doing it profitably, keeps building out its ecosystem of features. I am a fan of toast at these levels. Yeah, I like the business better than the stock. I've never been enamored with the stock. It's just restaurants are such a tough, low margin business. Matt mentions 171,000 locations, but from the BLS numbers, there's about over a million

restaurant locations, so it's not a huge market share. I don't see anything in what Toast does that it might have been forward, but I don't think there's anything that can't be copied by Clover. So many restaurants go out of business. I don't know if just kind of getting your tools established or anchored in. I don't know if switching costs matter too much. I think this continues to be a just slug-fest business, tough to gain margin, tough to gain real pricing power. And again, I like as a consumer, they've made the restaurant experience better for me. I wish them all the best, but it's just

not a stock I'm interested in it. Yeah, I don't really have a horse in the, or a dog in this fight, I guess, if you will, mixing my metaphors, as always. But, you know, I'm just kind of throwing on the, the bare case cap for a second here, Matt, to your point, you know, it is an intensely competitive space with Clover and Square. And the three of them combined have, you know, hoovered up a decent amount of the space in terms of market share. And toasts gains in market share up and to now have, you know, garnered that 20% revenue growth or ARR growth that they have seen. And the thing that I keep coming back to when I look at this is, you know, what you said was, as long as they keep that 20% revenue growth,

well, that involves continuing to grow market share. And I think that the market share gains from here, where I think there's somewhere in like the mid-20%, at least in some independent data that's been put out there, is going from, you know, that to 40% is much, much harder than going from, you know, 5% to 10% up to where it is today. And so there is a real possibility that revenue could slow as a result because it becomes much more of a knife fight,

getting market share relative to a lot of its competitors. But it seems to be, as anyone who has either seen it or if you talk with people in the industry, they seem to really like the product. And so it has that aspect to it. Not saying that it can't do it, but it's just going to get harder from here. That's all the time we have for today. Lou, Matt, thanks for sharing thoughts. I'm going to hit disclosure and we'll get out here. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for our guests, so don't buy ourselves stocks based on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored

content and provide for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes. Thanks for producer Bart Shannon and the rest of the Molly Fool team for Lou, Matt, and myself. Thanks for listening and we'll chat again soon.