Motley Fool Money - Big Tech’s $300B Spending Spree

Episode Date: February 7, 2025

DeepSeek hasn’t dissuaded big tech’s on cloud buildout spend. (00:43) Ron Gross and Jason Moser discuss: - What the Jobs report and the tariff headfake mean for the big macro. - Earnings from Amazon and Alphabet, and big tech’s $300B cap ex plans for 2025. - PayPal’s good quarter/bad reaction, Spotify’s music streaming supremacy, and Chipotle’s plans to burrito the world. (19:03) This year’s Super Bowl offers a rematch from two years ago, a Kendrick Lamar halftime show, and if the NFL regular season’s been any indication – plenty of ads for sports betting Ricky Mulvey caught up with Motley Fool analyst Nick Sciple for the investing angle on legalized sports betting and why parlays are the penny stocks of gambling. (33:46) Ron and Jason break down two stocks on their radar: Academy Sports And Outdoors and Uber. Stocks discussed: AMZN, GOOG, GOOGL, PYPL, SPOT, CMG, DK, MGM, AOS, UBER Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Ron Gross, Jason Moser, Ricky Mulvey, Nick Sciple Engineers: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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What? Oh, boy. Fantastic. You guys go hard, man. Daredevil Born Again, official podcast Tuesdays, and stream season two of Marvel Television's Daredevil Born Again on Disney Plus. What's $300 billion? in CAP-X between big tech friends.

This week's Motley Full Money Radio Show starts now. Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money. The best thing, this is Motley Fool Money. It's the Motleyful Money Radio Show. I'm Dylan Lewis. Joining me over the Airwaves,

Motleful Senior analyst, Jason Moser, and Ron Gross. Fools, great to have you both here with me. How you doing, Dylan? Hey. I'm excited because we have a little bit of a Super Bowl sports betting preview on today, show, how could we not? But we also have a look at earnings, the good, the bad, the capital

expenditure intensive. And we have, of course, stocks on our radar coming at you this week. We are going to kick off, though, looking at the big macro. And Ron, I'm going straight to you on this one. We've got some fresh jobs data this week. What kind of picture is it painting for the labor market? You know, I think it was a mixed report, which means there was something for everyone here in this report. The labor market is still strong, but Maybe with this report showing some cracks, which could give the Fed cover to lower interest rates if the cracks widen, but we are not there yet, especially because wage growth was really strong in this report, which is great for workers, but it also increases the fear of inflation.

So my guess is this report will put everyone still on hold. No rate changes through at least March. in June we can talk about it again, and we'll see what the picture looks like there. One of the other unavoidable parts of the big picture this week, Jason, tariffs. Before we get into any company results, we've got to talk tariffs. Market had to process, I think what was a little bit of a head fake this week, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico announced by the Trump administration, sets go into place, and then delayed a month after talks between leaders of the countries.

Market has had to try to process this. How are you factoring it into your paper? picture for 2025. Yeah, I think to me, when we talk about things like tariffs, I mean, it's always, it's, it's politics versus economics, right? They're serving two very different purposes here. And I'm not terribly surprised to see the fact that we've seen a delay here in the potential tariffs being implemented. And most of that just really was because of the reasoning behind this threat in the first place. I mean, the Trump administration was noting that Mexico and Canada

were subject to this because they failed to stop unauthorized migrants and drugs from entering the U.S. in regard to China, it seemed to center more around the fentanyl crisis. And ultimately, to me, it just seemed like, well, it's something that could just go away if leaders could get their heads together and say, okay, listen, we've talked, we've made a lot of progress, or we've had some productive discourse, and we understand our goals and what we want to do now. So I'm not terribly surprised to see this delay. I'm honestly, would be surprised to see them implemented a month from now just because the economic impacts can obviously be very severe. Yeah, agreed. And as far as the stock market and investing goes,

it all depends on which countries and the severity and the length of time. But for individual investors, I think you stay the course regardless, quite frankly. If I was invested solely in broad index funds, for example, I wouldn't be doing anything. I would stay put. On the other side of the coin, if I had 15% of my portfolio in a stock that could get hurt, maybe a Chinese manufacturing company of semiconductors or maybe some auto companies, well, then I would maybe think about asset allocation a little bit. Bring my 15%, that's a big position. Bring that down a bit to mitigate risk just in case. But for the most part, I think this is one of those stay-the-course moments. Or avocados, right around in the avocados.

Save it for the Chipotle conversation later in the show, Jason. Sorry. All right. So wait and see a little bit on the macro picture. No need to wait on the big tech picture. We have results from Amazon and Alphabet this week, which rounds us out from Microsoft, Apple, and meta results last week. Ron, shares of Amazon down 4% after the company reported, even though top and bottom line

numbers were ahead of expectations. What's got the market down here? This was a really strong report. A big beat, as you say. But it was future guidance and some whopping CAPX. We're going to hear that a lot. Some whopping KAPX guidance that has investors a little bit spooked. But the report, I'll take you through some of the metrics.

These are pretty impressive numbers. Sales overall up 10%, North America up 10% as well. International up 8%. Now, AWS, the cloud division, up 19%, strong results. But that actually was just shy of expectations. So some disappointment there. The Amazon advertising business up 18%. percent. That's pretty strong. You had gross margins widening, so they're bringing more money down to the bottom line, widening by 180 basis points, which is really nice, and their controlling operating expense as well, after having laid off thousands and thousands of people in previous years. Operating income up 61 percent, earnings up 89 percent to $20 billion just for the quarter, $20 billion in earnings just for the quarter.

First quarter guidance of this year is where you get a little less exciting and where the train comes off the track just a little bit. Sales expected to grow between five and nine percent compared with the first quarter of 2024, less than hoped. If it comes in at the low end of the range, that would be the slowest growth on record for the company and it's below analyst's expectations. Now, it's important to note that guidance does include $2.1 billion or 1.5 percent of, quote, unusually large, unfavorable impact, close quote, from foreign exchange rates. A lot of business comes from overseas on Amazon. That's going to hurt them.

Operating income expected to be between $14 and $18 billion for the quarter, that also is less than expected. So that's why you see the stocks is selling off. Again, KAPX guidance, $105 billion for 2025. That's up from $80 billion in 2024, largely driven by AI investments for the AW. segment. I think that's a theme we're going to hear time and time again with big tech. They're spending to stay competitive, so it's almost essential in this race. But this is a very strong report, and we'll have to see what happens with reality versus guidance.

Jason, you dug into the results from Alphabet. Similar tone there, spending, spending, spending when it comes to capital X and AI? Yes. I think the theme of the call is that the gym, The Gemini era is gaining traction. Investments in AI continue to dominate the narrative across the broader tech space. Alphabet, clearly no exception here in December. They unveiled Gemini 2.0. That's what they're building for the Agenic era.

They now boast 4.4 million developers using Gemini models today. That's double the number from just six months ago. And I think it's also worth noting they now have seven products and platforms with over 2 billion users. Remember, we've talked a lot about how they had 11, 12, 13 with 1 billion plus users. Now it's 7 with better than 2 billion users. And they're all using Gemini, whether they know it or not, Dylan. So I think when we look at the numbers here, they reported, I think, a very respectable revenue of $96.5 billion.

It was up 12% from a year ago. YouTube revenue grew 13.8%. We saw cloud revenue up 30% with cloud operating income. up 142%. So doing a lot of good stuff there to bring that cloud profitability down to the bottom line there. I think the market's reaction

in selling the stock is likely due to a few things. First, there was just a very modest miss on the revenue line. I mean, a very modest miss. Two, there was slightly, and I say slightly slower growth in cloud than expected.

But then finally, I think it was the announcement from leadership. I'm going to go back to Ron's whopping cap comment there. This was another one, right? They're talking about spending $75 billion in capital expenditures here for 2025. That's significantly higher than the around $59 billion that was expected. And you guessed it, Dylan, most of that money is going out to building their AI infrastructure. Have either of you guys used the Gemini app where you can put it on live and it just stays open and you can talk to it like you would a person and it can give you advice or help you do a task or

anything like that. If you haven't, it's kind of, it's pretty cool. I mean, it's the future. I would, I would recommend checking it out. Well, I'd say I fiddled around with Gem and I on the app and on my laptop just in regard to workflows and research. And I found it very helpful. So putting all those numbers together, I just want to take a step back a little bit on what we're seeing from big tech. Ron, you noted over $100 billion in Kappex spend for Amazon in 2025, alphabet is going to be deep in the tens of billions as well. With what we saw, last week from meta, over 60 billion, Microsoft, 80 billion. All told, we're looking at over $300 billion from those four companies alone.

We had the Deep Seek development just a few weeks ago. It seems like that has done nothing, Ron, to phase big tech when it comes to this Cappex expenditure. There was one day where it had a big impact. And then I think everyone looked under the hood a little bit and calmed down, but also said, well, we are actually going to have to spend this much money. Maybe for a minute or two, people thought they wouldn't have to. But I think it is going to be necessary.

Data centers are going to be a huge portion of this spend. So if you're looking to invest in that trend, you can look in that direction. Be careful about valuations. Stocks are already really high in anticipation. But I think the CAPEX spend is inevitable, at least for the next couple of years. All right. Coming up after the break, we've got the latest in payments, streaming, and everyone's favorite. Burritos. Stay right here. This is a motleyful money.

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Q4 results exceeded internal expectations, and that's what I care most about. But, I mean, it's worth noting the stock has been on a pretty good tear lately. And I think questions regarding growth and profitability are still fair game. I think some of the concern was on the operating margin side. We saw a little contraction there, along with branded checkout growth, which has been a big point of focus for Alex, Chris, there. And it's not to say branded checkout growth was bad. It was 6% this quarter versus 5%.

from a year ago, but it does sound like that brand of checkout growth was a little short of expectations. When you look at the numbers, I mean, revenue, $8.4 billion, that was up 4% transaction dollars grew 7%. We saw non-gap earnings per share up 5%. Total payment volume up 7%. And this, I just thought, was fascinating. For the year, the company ran $1.68 trillion through its combination of networks. That was up 10% from the previous year. So I think these questions regarding growth are fair, but I also think that we're still looking at a juggernaut here in the payment space. I would not sell him short. You brought up CEO, Alex Chris, and we're about a year and a half into his time leading the company.

Feels like we're kind of heading into that territory of he's had time to lay out the plan and start making some progress on the plan. How are you feeling about his leadership so far? I think so far so good. You know, he's a leader that's just doing what he says he's going to do. There's been a big focus on the small to medium-sized business opportunity with things like PayPal working capital and PayPal business loans. And then another big point of focus has been regarding Venmo. Venmo total payment volume is up 10% in the quarter.

They continue to make progress on monetization there. They saw Venmo debit card monthly actives up more than 30% for the quarter and pay with Venmo. Monthly actives were up over 20%. So that monetization progress is coming up. coming along nicely. Different story over at Spotify this quarter. A milestone earnings report, Ron, and a nice market reaction to boot. The music streamer posted its first ever annual profit.

Very, very strong market reaction to that. Strong market reaction, a strong report helped by the fact that they did cut 1,500 jobs. So expenses were down, but I don't want to take it away from them. It is still a very strong report. Shares are up 170% over the past year, up well above all. time highs. So very, very strong performance. And the numbers do bear that out. Their monthly active users rose by 35 million to hit a total of 675 million, the largest fourth quarter increase in their history. They've guided to 678 million monthly users going forward. Revenue up 16 percent. Gross

margins widened to now they're at 32.2 percent, which looks really strong. Operating income beat expectations at 477 million euros. Some of that was lower costs, as I said, was offset by something called social charges of 96 million euros, and those are payroll taxes, but other expenses that go up as the stock increases, so there's a little bit of a negative impact to an increasing stock price, but I think overall people are certainly happy to see that stock go higher. Management guidance was very strong, operating income of $548 million. euros for the current quarter. They signed a deal with Warner Music. They have over one million copyrights in the U.S. and other countries. So things are looking pretty strong here. Stock's not cheap.

They just turn profitable, so 60 times forward earnings might be a little misleading. If they can continue to grow into those earnings or that valuation, as we like to say, maybe it's not as expensive as it looks on paper, but they've got to execute. Yeah, I'm a shareholder, and I've been for a while. I had one of our colleagues reach out to me this week and say, all right, Mr. Spotify Bull, buy, sell or hold at today's valuation. It's elevated. And I think this one lives for me, Ron, in this place of the customer retention story is there. The loyalty story is there. I just don't see anyone stepping into this space and taking the business from them. And it kind of puts them a little bit in like a Costco territory where I'm like, I don't think

that they can really disappoint their users to the point where they're going to see mass exodus. 263 million users, you know, you got to go to maybe Apple Music, maybe around 90 million there, Sirius XM and Pandora combined nowhere near, 33 million. They are the top dog, and as you say, they're continuing to deliver for subscribers, so I don't see that coming down in any meaningful way anytime soon. Jason, you brought up avocados earlier on today's show. Got some guac on the brain as you were digging into just bulletin's results this week. Of course, always.

I love guacamole. I think this was a good quarter. It wasn't great. It wasn't bad. It was kind of that George Costanza, you know, right there in the meaty part of the curb. Not showing off,

not falling behind. I think the two bigger questions right now for Chipotle are regarding new leadership, right? Will Scott Boatwright be able to keep the momentum going? And then also the overall market opportunity they ultimately envision. And I'll get to that in a minute.

But just in regard to the number total revenue growth there, 13.1%, $2.8 billion for the quarter. Comps were up 5.4%. That was thanks to decent growth in transactions, 4%. And they saw digital sales as 34% of total sales. Now, they did see a little bit of contraction there in the restaurant level operating margin as they kind of continue to work on ensuring generous portions while also dealing with some food cost inflation around items like dairy,

and avocados. And as you mentioned at the top there, Dylan, if this tariff story does end up moving forward, then I suspect the costs of doing business for a company like Chipotle will get a little bit, a little bit greater. Yeah, I think one of the things that was kind of interesting with their guidance was they noted that there would be a tariff impact. I think they said it would be a 60 basis point effect on the cost of sales. However, the guidance that they provided to the market did not incorporate that. And so they're kind of doing this interesting move of, we think this is out there. This is the number we're going to give you if it happens, but we're not building it into our results. And to the point you guys were making earlier in the

show, it seems like that management team is saying, we're not so sure that these tariffs are really going to go through. Right. And I appreciate that. I mean, nobody really knows. And so that's something just to keep an eye on there. I think going back to that market opportunity, the question I just have, they have 3,700 stores today. They're targeting 7,000 plus in North America alone over the coming years. Now, that sounds like a lot. If they can achieve that, along with bumping those average unit volumes up from $3.2 million to day to $4 million longer term, I mean, we can see a massive opportunity here. I think that's the question. We have to ask ourselves as investors, though. Does this sound like a reasonable estimation

of that overall market opportunity. I'm the biggest Chipotle fan out there. I'm just not sure, Dylan. I'm just not sure. What I'm hearing is the line is going to get shorter because there are going to be more locations. And I think we can all get behind that one, Jason. I think so.

I think so. All right, Jason, Ron. We'll see you guys a little bit later in the show. Up next, we've got a primer on the business and investing side of sports betting ahead of the Super Bowl. Stay right here. You're listening to Motleyful Money. Don't get it in your eye, yo.

Unless you want to cry. Welcome back to Motley Full Money. I'm Dylan Lewis. And I think I'm willing to bet what you'll be up to this Sunday. I'm guessing you'll be on the couch, like over 100 million people, tuning in to watch the Eagles and Chiefs take the field to decide the NFL's champion. This year's Super Bowl offers a rematch from two years ago, a Kendrick Lamar halftime show.

And if the NFL's regular season has been any indication, plenty of ads for sports betting. Ahead of the big game, my colleague Ricky Mulmour, Holy V caught up with Motley Fool analyst Nick Seiple for the investor's angle on legalized sports betting. They broke down the surge in interest over the past few years, how the different betting operators stack up, and why parleyes are the penny stocks of sports gambling. Betting on the Super Bowl has always been popular. You know, Super Bowl squares have been a tradition. It parties forever. But interest in legal betting has exploded over the past few years.

Legal sports report tracks Super Bowl bets, and this is just the least. legal markets. So yes, the offshore books are probably losing some action when you look at this number. But legal bets accounted for $300 million in 2020. Last year, it was $1.3 billion, a $1 billion increase. We've seen the uptake of legal betting across the country. But Nick, when you look at just that number, is that growth surprising to you? You know, not really. If you answer, Ricky, I mean, part of it is what you said, right? A lot of this is people who were already gambling on sports before it was federally legal in 2019 black market gambling coming out onto the open. At the same time, you know, to kind of connect with that, we've seen lots of states

legalized sports betting since 2020, big ones like New York and in Illinois. And at the same time, I don't think anybody who's a sports fan can have missed it. Basically everyone in sports media has pivoted to pushing sports betting. If you just look at TV advertisement, I look For the most recent date, I could find 2023, sports betting ads were 0.4% of TV advertising volume. That's just 0.1% behind alcohol. And this is from a standing start at zero in 2018. So this is the thing people were doing already. It's been marketed super heavily. And the Super Bowl is the biggest TV event of the year. So not surprising to see betting increase over time. We'll take a look at a few of the companies that offer these bets.

And you've got a good X account to follow. I'll shout out at investing, Nick, because I don't think you would do it yourself. But one of the things I saw you post a little while ago, and this was in reaction to someone posting about Walmart and how communities used to not welcome Walmarts in with open arms, and now you can find them wherever. You wrote that, quote, investing in popular things that people are trying to ban is a winning strategy. I think sports betting companies might fall under that. This was a previously prohibited thing, and now about 40% of Americans bet on sports, that's from a St. Bonaventure University, Seattle College Research.

And there's a cost to this. One study found that about 10% of young men may have a gambling problem. You have the other side that would say adults can make their own choices. But that's the number salad. It's a controversial space that's extraordinarily popular, but now we put the investing lens on it. Is sports betting an investable space for you?

I think it's potentially, investable. For me, it's not as much of a moral question. I think gambling has been with us for a long time. They've found dice at archaeological sites to go back to 3,000 BC. So for whatever reason, gambling appeals to folks. It scratches some itch that humans want to scratch and it gives rewards that people respond to. So, you know, I think it's an industry that's not going to go away, whether legal or illegal. You know, on this idea of you can, I think, generally make money when folks are trying to ban something that's super popular, whether that's an Uber or a Wal. Walmart or the nicotine business has done really well, even post folks trying to reduce

usage of those products. I think investors really get caught up in the headlines around, hey, we'd like to see less of this and the controversy around the business and focus a little bit less on what the business is actually producing, which I think in the long term leads to the business being overpriced. I will say, though, if I look at gambling today, maybe it doesn't fit quite in that bucket because we're not really seeing folks try to ban it. We're seeing a legalization trend around the world, whether it's more states.

kind of legalizing in the U.S. or Brazil in 2024, really kind of starting to legalize sports betting. We've got capital flowing into the gambling space today, not out, which I think makes it a little bit less attractive. Also, unlike some of these other markets, the market's a little bit less mature than you'd like it to be. You don't really know what steady state profits are going to be in the business. Earlier this week, the Ohio, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine announced in their proposed budget that they would try to double the state's tax on sports betting from 20% previously up to 40%. You're seeing the same thing happened in Maryland where the governor is proposing doubling their state tax on sports betting from 15% to 30% all those tax increases

would come straight off sports book margins at a time when you're finally seeing draft kings and companies like it get to cash flow positive. So look at me today. I think there's capital flowing into the business and uncertainty about kind of long term what the normalized profits will be. It's hard for me to get comfortable enough with the business to invest. That said, as I kind of let off my answer here, I don't think this business is going to go away. So maybe you get an opportunity to invest at a time where there's a more certainty about what the long term market share and profitability of this business is. Well, one of the big controversies that's coming is what a lot of these operators are pushing for in my view, which is eye gaming, which is not just sports betting,

but it's the ability to put a casino in everyone's pockets, online slot machines, table games, that kind of thing. And I think that that should be controversial because that opens up a whole other Pandora's box. And if you're an investor in one of these companies, coldly, you will be looking at eye gaming as a potential growth lever for these businesses, which are struggling to make a profit, Nick. Yeah, absolutely. And we'll see what happens regulatoryly there. Certainly could shake up the gambling business. I think a lot of this just comes down to what regulation looks like, and we're still not 100% certain on what that will be long term. A lot of this will happen in the state house. Let's take a look at some of the operators. One thing you'll notice if you zoom out on the

stock charts is that the online operators have had a much better past few years than the physical operators. Flutter, which operates Fandall and Draft Kings, which operates draft Kings, have outperformed the physical operators like Wynn and MGM over the past five years, and they've been market beaters. Any general thoughts on that outperformance, even as a lot of these, online operators, draft kings, for example, cannot make a positive operating profit. Yeah, I think that divergence and performance really comes down to where the online folks like draft kings and fan duel through Flutter are exposed as compared to the physical folks. So as we've kind of alluded to earlier, we've seen incredible growth in online sports betting

over the past five years. I pulled some numbers before we hopped on here. The preliminary numbers for 2024 have licensed sports books across 33 markets combined to generate nearly 150 billion dollars and handle handles just the total number of money kind of bet on sports you compare that at the end of 2019 we're looking about 13 billion dollars so online sports betting has grown about 10x over the past five years just as on the sheer volume of dollars being bet online at the same time most of that growth has accrued to the benefit of draft kings and fan duel who together control about two-thirds of the online sports betting industry so you've got an underlying industry that's grown you know 10x plus over the past five years and the vast majority of it has accrued to two players kind of explains the performance of those companies. If you look at the physical casino companies, while they have online offerings, they significantly trail the big online players, as I laid out earlier, and they're still really dependent on the physical casinos to drive the majority of the results. In the case of the two companies, you laid out, MGM and Wend, really dependent on Vegas and Macau, which is Macau's China's

gaming capital. And visitors in both those destinations are still below pre-pandemic levels. So in Vegas in 2019 had 42.5 million visitors. 2024 had 41.7 million. So we're still just under 2019 levels. Even worse in Macau, 34.9 million visitors in 2024. It's still about 12% below pre-pandemic. So while you've seen lots of growth online, you're seeing fewer folks in Vegas. And at least in the U.S., maybe that's partially explained because of, you know,

folks can bet at home and don't have to travel all the way out west. So you mentioned that you're not comfortable enough with this space to invest. what are the flags you'd be looking for to become more comfortable to invest in this space? Yeah, I mean, I'd really like to not see policymakers, you know, janking around with what their take is going to be off the top line for these companies. I'd also like to see, and we're started to see some of this of a trend down and the intensity of advertising spend. Part of that is just as the industry continues to consolidate around a handful of players

and the smaller folks push out, there's just less need for, for spending to kind of gobble up the market. Also, as more states are legalized, you have to spend less money rolling out your operation in those states or doing governmental relations efforts to try to encourage the legalization along. So really just maturity of the industry, knowing kind of, all right, this is what the tax rates are going to be. These are the markets where things are going to be operating.

These are the players that we really can look at as the main competitors. And hopefully competitive intensity. move to a more normalized level as opposed to the real land grab that we're still in today. Let's get to a personal finance angle because I've actually got a lock for you, Nick, when you tune into the Super Bowl on Sunday.

I will bet you see an ad that encourages you to play a parlay, maybe even a boost if you do that. The Wall Street Journal reported that parlay is, which are multi-leg bets. Someone will score a touchdown and someone will get so many rushing yards and a defense will do X.

Often they were connected to different games. so it would be the Eagles will win and also the New York Knicks will win, that kind of thing. They've since been combined into single game parleyes. But the Wallsheet Journal reports that these bets account for about 27% of the money wagered on all sports bets last year, but they made up more than half of the betting revenue. Nick, to me, that sounds like a sucker bet.

Why are these sucker bets? Yeah, because chances are you're going to lose. As you say, parlays are type of, sports bet where you've got multiple wagers that you make at the same time. It's only successful when every one of those underlying wagers hits. So if you bet a three-leg parlay, only two of those underlying wagers plays out, you lose it all. For a beginning gambler, beginning better, optically, parlays look appealing because as you add more legs, your potential odds go up. That means you can risk less and potentially win more. That's great. But really, these parlayes are

exploiting the common cognitive bias that we all have, whether we're investing in stocks or or engaging in sports betting. We love to ignore the risk and just look at those financial rewards. And the sports books are depending on that. As you add more legs, your chances the wind goes down and the house edge keeps going up. So parleyes on average are about three times more profitable for the house for sports books than straight bets are on average, which is why getting players to bet more parley's with more legs are part of the key performance indicators.

These sports books go after to try to make more money. That's why you'll hear parley is promoted heavily in just about every ad. And if you go on any of these sports books at the top of the homepage, you'll see promoted parleyes, whether it's from your favorite kind of sports media personality or just ones they think that you should be interested in based on the bets they've seen you make before. It's because the sports book makes more money when you place those bets, not because they're trying to help you out. And I think this is a time of year where lots of people try out sports betting. It makes sense. The big game, it's a huge TV event where very few people actually have a rooting interest.

that you know, there's lots of Chiefs fans and Eagles fans out there, but most folks watching the game aren't going to be fans of either of those teams. And making a little bet, you know, to increase your rooting interest is fine. You just shouldn't be betting more than you can afford to lose. And I would advise you to consider sticking to straight bets where the odds are much more in your favor and you're not going to donate money to the sports book. So if you're not going to make a parlay, let's finish up with a little bit of fun. You follow football a lot more closely than I do.

So someone's going to bet, let's say $2, $5 on a bet if they're going to watch on Sunday. Is there one that you're looking at for a little bit of fun? Sure. Well, I mean, if you're picking the winner of the game, I think it's hard to go against the Chiefs. It's a fun story to root for also. It would be the first three Pete in the history of the NFL. But the Super Bowl is a time for prop bets. It's a time for getting a little bit outside just the core, you know, your core, who's going to win and what's the over under.

If I'm going to give a prop for the game, I think one fun one is I've seen that you can get, you can bet the shortest touchdown score in the game under one and a half yards. Odds on that is minus 16.6. That means you got to bet $16 and $60 to win $10. Basically, what are we betting on here? We're betting on a QB sneak to get in the end zone. If folks have watched the Eagles all year, the tush push is their go-to play. It's the signature play of the Eagles.

Anytime they have a yard to gain, pretty much get it anytime they want with Jalen Hertz and behind that that offensive line. So I think, and even if you don't get to put push push, I think the chances you get down to the one yard line pretty decent in the game. If you want to be a little bit more aggressive, I've seen odds out there that you can bet on Jalen Hertz to get exactly one rush touchdown, which would be that one push push to get in there. You can get those odds up to plus 170. Of course, you run the risk that, you know, maybe he scores more than once in the game and you

don't pay out. So, you know, I think there's pretty good chance you see a push push touchdown on. Sunday and for that reason, I think maybe sprinkle a little money on those price. Listeners, I'm with Nick. I think we'll see a tush push or as Philly fans might call it a brotherly show. We'll be back in a minute with Ron Gross and Jason Moser's thoughts on the big game and the stocks on their radar this week. Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool money. As always, people on the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So, don't buy something based solely on what you

hear. All personal finance content follows a monthly full editorial standards and is not approved advertisers. The monthly will only pick products. It would personally recommend a friends like you. All right, Ron, Jason. Before the break, our colleagues, Nick Seiple and Ricky Movie gave listeners the sports betting talking points for Super Bowl 59. You guys are fans of the game, but you're also fans of the culinary arts. So I am curious, what will be on your plate in front of you while you're watching the game this Sunday? Dylan, it's a pretty good bet that I will likely throw some wings on the Traker, smoke them low and slow. for a bit. Now, we like them dry rub. And for me, Dizzy Pig Crossroads rub is an absolute no-brainer. Now, I wanted to add a second flavor to this rotation, thanks to our own Ron Gross here, recently pointed out that McCormick is just named Ahi Amarillo as its 2025 flavor of the year,

playing into that swicy trend. The problem is you have to order it from the site. So I won't be able to get in time, but I have ordered it, and it will report back. Please do. Can't wait. for that. Yeah. Ron, what are you going to be eating? I'm going to a big party,

but I'm bringing an antipasto, not anti-pasta, anti-pasto salad. You're going to get roasted peppers and fennel and artichoke hearts and olives and pepperoni. You'll get sun-dried tomatoes. You'll get mozzarella.

You'll get some provolone. It's going to be pretty good. That sounds delightful. And, you know, for people that want something kind of dumb, simple out there, here's my recommendation. You make pigs in a blanket. Everyone knows pigs in a blanket.

There's a little crucial step in here. Take that dough. Roll it in everything but the bagel seasoning. Then pop it in the oven. Shout out to my mom. This one's from the Debbie cookbook. It's a favorite, and it always goes. It doesn't have to be super elaborate.

If you want to go antipasto, you can. But, you know, fancy picks and I can work too. Can't wait to eat it. All right, let's get over to stocks on our radar. Our man behind the glass, Rick Engdahl is going to hit you with a question. Jason, you're up first. What are you looking at this week? Sure thing.

ticker U-B-E-R. We just saw some interesting news out here that Bill Ackman has revealed he's been building a more than $2 billion stake in the company. That's a big stake. I just think it's worth noting, Dylan. It's like a porterhouse. It really is. They reported it, I thought, was a very good core. The market had a funny reaction initially, but gross bookings up 21%. Mobility gross bookings up 24%. Delivery was up 18%. I was really impressed by that. And ultimately, tributtal. for the quarter group, 18%, to 3.1 billion, or as they equated, approximately 33 million trips per day on average. Now, a big theme of the call was autonomy, CEO Dara Koshari, noted that while AV technology is advancing quickly, the commercialization is going to take a very long time. So if that's your thesis for the stock, that's fine. Just to understand, it's going to be a little while. Rick, a question about Uber, ticker UB-E-R. Yeah, I was intrigued by the offerings that you guys are making. for the Super Bowl food plates there? Can I use Uber Eats to order from you guys?

I feel like there's something here, right? Full food? I mean, I don't know. There's a new ghost kitchen in the Moser household. Ron, what are you bringing? What's your radar stock this week? I'm looking at Academy Sports and Outdoors, ASO, which I had never heard of until my friends over at our dividend investor service recommended it. It traces its roots back to 1938, a family-run business By 2011, way fast forward, they had 131 stores, $3 billion in revenue, sporting goods stores. Dix would be the closest competitor. Now they have 298 stores. They're fast growing in the sunbelt.

That's where their niche is. That's what makes them a little bit unique. They produce gobs and gobs of cash flow. It's a really strong business that most people have never heard of. You know, I appreciate you being on the sports theme there, Ron. I think that's a nice little time with today's show. Anytime. Rick, a question about Academy Sports and Outdoors, ticker ASO.

I've also never heard of it before. I thought brand was important. Is it just not? Is that the Sunbelt? The Sunbelt knows it, Rick. You've got to get yourself over to the Sunbelt. All right, Rick, you opting for delivery wings or the Sunbelt's favorite sportswear? I'm hungry.

Seriously, if I can get someone to pick up food from your place and bring it to me, it sounds really good. All three of you. All right. Full food. Let's make it a thing. Coming to you soon. Jason, Ron, appreciate you being here and bringing your radar stocks. Rick, appreciate you weighing in. That's going to do it for this week's Smoutly Full Money Radio show. The show is mixed by Rick Engdahl. I'm Dylan Lewis. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next time.