Motley Fool Money - Bold Earning Season Predictions

Episode Date: July 15, 2025

Get excited…today is the first day of earnings season! (00:21) Anand Chokkavelu, Emily Flippen, Jason Hall, and Jose Najarro discuss: - Inflation ticks up - NVIDIA and semiconductors get a China bump - The big banks kick off earnings season (and tell us about the economy) - Is “Crypto Week” a thing? - Bold predictions on which company will surprise this earnings season Companies discussed: NVDA, AMD, JPM, WFC, C, Bitcoin, ETSY, CFLT, WBD Host: Anand Chokkavelu Guests: Emily Flippen, Jason Hall, Jose Najarro Engineer: Dan Boyd Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, "TMF") do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Get excited. Today is the first day of earnings season. Mali Fool Money starts now. I'm on in Chaco, balloon. I'm joined by two of my favorite fools, Emily Flippin and Jason Hall, to kick off earnings season with some big banks giving us a feel for the economy. We'll also give you the skinny on crypto week, and we'll have bold predictions on earnings season. Plus, we're bringing on a bonus fool. Also one of my favorites, semiconductor experts, Jose Naharo to talk about some hot Nvidia news. But first, we had a fresh inflation reading this morning. June's Consumer Price Index ticked up to an annual rate of 2.7%, up from May's 2.4%. Emily, what were your takeaways? Well, if you thought you could have a peaceful Tuesday with no bad news,

think again, obviously inflation is heating up here a little bit. And I think we're just starting to see some of the impacts from tariffs as those price increases. core goods start to become more tangible as opposed to theoretical. We had this really big front-loading of inventory that happened at the beginning of the year as businesses stockpiled in anticipation of tariffs, and those are beginning to diminish, which I think is making it harder to protect products from rising costs. And we saw that in core goods inflation. Those includes things like basic necessities, like apparel and household products that accelerated last month. But the good thing is, and the silver lining to our Tuesday here, is that this is a gradual,

We're not talking about anything that's incredibly dramatic. Those numbers at 2.7% that's an annualized rate. So we're not talking month over month here. No need to immediately panic. But I do think this could have some overarching implications for what we're likely to see in future earning season, both coming up in the next couple of weeks as well as towards the end of the year. And it just makes me want to pay attention to what leadership's going to be commenting on because how this trickles down for consumer spending and how much prices are able to be pass along versus the impact to companies' bottom lines, that's really going to have a wide-reaching impact in the later half of 2025. Yeah, I think wide-reaching is a good way to put it. And just looking at what the markets are doing today, the S&P 500, which that's, I mean, let's be honest, that's indexed to gigantic companies is down about a quarter of a percent. But if you look at the Russell 2000, that's small caps. It's down like 1.3%.

So you kind of see where investors are seeing the potential impacts of inflation on the companies that are most directly affected by it. And what they're looking forward and seeing, if we're being honest, is really going to be driven by the tariff story. That's still the big story in the background. If we look at May, we saw a massive increase in imports as companies tried to pull forward inventory as much as they could back in April, I should say. And then in May, it came down quarter over quarter, but May imports were still well up from where they were year over a year. So maybe some of the concerns about empty store shelves later in the year, maybe aren't as likely to come to fruition as a lot of investors have been thinking,

because that would be a big thing that would certainly drive a lot of inflation. By the way, all the data hasn't been reported yet, but June traffic at the port of L.A., it was a record level for that month. So I think the market broadly is looking out and saying, hey, I don't really know if what we're seeing with the inflation that could be driven by the potential of the tariffs is going to be as bad as we think. But at the end of the day, what's the investor takeaway, guys? Peter Lynch probably had it right when he said if you spend 13 minutes on economics in a year, you wasted 10 minutes. These things affect us in the real world. But as investors, I think our time is still just better spent looking for strong, durable businesses with those great long-term tailwinds.

we start focusing on macro, what happens? We're reacting based on what our own biases and inclinations are. If we give our emotions control of our portfolios, that's never the right decision. If you do the math on Peter Lynch, that's about, you spent three minutes on macro, that's about what we did, give or a take. We'll be back with some news about Nvidia and China after the break. The old adage goes, it isn't what you say, it's how you say it, because to truly make an impact, you need to set an example and take the lead. You have to adapt to a way. whatever comes your way. When you're that driven, you drive an equally determined vehicle, the Range Rover Sport. The Range Rover Sport blends power, poise, and performance. Its design is

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semiconductors. Today, we've got some news on Nvidia and China. What's going on? Yeah, so pretty exciting news for the overall semiconductor industry. Today, the stocks in the semiconductor space are up roughly 3, 4, 5%, depending on what stock you're looking at. But the CEO of Nvidia recently made a trip to Beijing and met with a few government and industry officials there. While he was there, he did provide update to customers, noting that Nvidia is going to be filing applications to sell the Nvidia H20 GPU again to that market.

And they did assure, Jensen assured that the U.S. government has assured Nvidia that the licenses will be granted, and Nvidia hopes to start deliveries there pretty, pretty soon. So just a quick kind of backlog of what happened. On April 9th of 2025, during this was still part of Nvidia's quarter one earnings, the U.S. government issued a new export restrictions on the H20, which is an AI chip meant for the Chinese market, and that they could no longer ship to that region. For that one quarter in those few weeks that the export restriction affected, the company lost roughly $2.5 billion in revenue. And then when they gave guidance of quarter two, they mentioned due to these restrictions, they were losing about $8 billion in revenue per quarter for a full quarter.

So now that you have this new entrance of this market, you can at least potentially see at least $30 billion added on revenue, not seeing any growth rates per year for the overall AI GPU space in China. So a lot of companies are excited. This also did trickle down to some other companies. AMD also had similar export restrictions, and they did respond to similar comments that they will also be looking for these license approvals for their chips as well. I mean, this is not exactly the same thing as Richard Nixon going to China in 72, but Jensen Wong going there in person. It's a reminder of how important China is for the semiconductor industry writ large. Very important. And it also showcases how we want to have this AI technology being run on American technology. We don't want it run on any other from other countries. It's coming from Nvidia, which is a U.S.-based company. This is all very clearly positive news. Is the $4 trillion in market cap for Nvidia a buy, a sell, or an index for you at this point, Jose?

The index means you just stick with whatever allocations in a broad-based index fund, which with a $4 trillion market cap is pretty sizable at this point. Yeah, for me, it's definitely more in that index position. I'm not looking to add any more to my portfolio. Obviously, there's a lot of growth opportunities, and that's why I'm willing to hold. But obviously, you could see plenty and plenty of short-term tellwinds that could create volatility. So for me, it's a perfect index play, as you mentioned, pretty much just hold and ride this AI wave.

It's a jam-pack day. Let's move on to the story. I thought we'd lead with. We had three of the major banks report earnings this morning. That's J.P. Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. As bank lending goes, so goes the economy. So, Jason, what are the banks telling us about the economy? I know Jamie Diamond must have some thoughts. He always has thoughts, the godfather of the U.S. banking industry. And a little bit of a perma bear at times. When things are going very well, he's very bearish. He does get a little more optimistic. when things are a little bit questionable. But what I really saw this quarter was there's less of what management says,

and then there's what the businesses did, and then what management is doing thinking about the businesses. And overall, again, J.P. Morgan, Wells and City, the results were fine. Again, that's looking backwards, though. The one thing that we can look at that gives us some indication of what management is acting on going forward is provisions for credit losses. Frankly, there were no major changes. for any of them. This is what they're doing on their books to bolster their balance sheets for

expected future loan losses. And so Wells and City reported increased allowances, but they were both commensurate to things within the mix. So Wells had some changes in its portfolio mix, a little bit less asset-backed stuff like mortgages and a little bit more credit cards. And cities went up, mainly because its loan portfolio just got larger. So I don't think we really learned a lot broadly that we didn't already know. Now, you look at these three, Wells Stock is down, call it 5% a day. Management lowered guidance for net interest income. That's the most important source of profit for Wells Fargo because it's a big Main Street lender. So maybe there's a little bit of an indication there. I found it really interesting that, to your point, Jason, Diamond is considered

such a bear when things are good and such a bull when things are bad. But the JP Morgan CFO said during the call that the consumer seems to be fine. I mean, that is an exact quote, which feels to me like a bit of a reach, because to your point, a lot of the data that these banks are working off of is lagging. They're basing off theories about credit and consumer spending based off of their own consumer credit portfolios. And to their points, that is led by labor markets. And with unemployment, it's still less than 5%. I mean, it seems to be fine. But that lagging indicator, I worry, could just be something that. sneaks up on these types of businesses because we've seen unemployment tick up continuously for over two years now. More than half of all American consumers say they expect to be worse off

financially next year in comparison to this year. And consumer spending is declining. The Federal Reserve is looking to manage inflation, not unemployment. So with less rate cuts this year, I feel like that could further worsen unemployment rates. And that lag in between, I think, what some of these banks are experiencing in terms of the quality of their credit. portfolio versus what the average American is experiencing right now is incredibly clear to me when I listen to these earnings calls. And no way our listeners want to hear the nitty-gritty details on three different banks. They're probably zoning out already, Jason.

We don't want to talk about return on tangible common equity for all three of these. Come on. That's fun stuff. Hey, we'll get to the stress test, all that stuff, right? No, no. You get to talk about one and only one, Jason, of J.P. Morgan Chase, Wells Far, and Citigroup, which had the most noteworthy earnings for stock pickers out there. Honestly, I don't think we had really any outliers here. So just a couple of really quick points about each of them.

I think it probably serves our listeners better. J.P. Morgan continues to be that gold standard. You look at their return metrics. Nobody fall asleep on me here, but they're extraordinarily high. Directionally, we're talking twice as good as a city, which is struggling with years of issue. Morgan also had pretty decent loan growth. Jane Fraser is doing a really good job of dragging city forward, but again, they're bragging about 8% return on equity versus like 17% over at JPMorgan.

So that's the difference you see there. Now, looking at Wells, it may be the one that really signaled to the market that consumers, to Emily's point, are feeling more of a pinch than anyone else. Again, looking at that bringing down their expected net interest income. this is the one of all of these that's most concentrated on like traditional Main Street USA banking and lending. So maybe that's the biggest takeaway for me is that. And the million dollar question, buy seller index on these banks, Jason. You know how I do this. I can't give you any of those three. I'm going to say none of the

above. If I'm buying bank stocks today, valuation really matters with these giant mature businesses. Yeah, there are some positive things. Less regulation, lower corporate taxes, compelling. But there's just much better values to be found if you look at some of the larger regional and a handful of more specialized banks out there. That's who I'm looking to hear from this week, like Truest Financial, for example, it's really in the sweet spot of the demographics, like the Southeast migration trends. I won't steal Emily Stunder, but there's a big regional bank with national reach that just made a really interesting acquisition that has that one on my radar, but I'll let Emily talk about that one. Yeah, I completely agree here at Jason. I think there's a fair point

that a reduction in regulation across the board with the new administration could just be a boon for the industry. But that doesn't make me want to go out and be like, I'm going to start indexing these banks. If I'm indexed, I mean, index is a total market of which you get exposure to a lot of these high quality companies. But if you're going to want additional exposure in my book, pick the high quality ones, right? The JP Morgan's and to Jason's earlier point, a company that should be on everybody's radar, which is Capital One Financial. They just close their Discover merger. And that makes a behemoth in this. space, but skip the bad ones. And I was going to say that I think quality is more important

than price here. And I think that is true. But I was thinking of that in the context of those small regional banks that can sometimes get really attractive on a price basis, but you're losing out on quality. I think Jason's point about understanding the price you're paying for even the larger banks is incredibly important because these are mature businesses. And the market can have pretty stark reactions for factors outside of their control when it comes to the broader economy. So, focus on quality here, but don't ignore price. Let's move on to Crypto Week. I've heard about Shark Week for years, but this is my first crypto week. I've seen Bitcoin touch new highs at over $120,000 per Bitcoin this week. Well, what's going on, Jason? Yeah, unlike Infrastructure Week,

which has been playing out for 20 years now, Crypto Week's actually kind of happening. So this week, there are several. pieces of legislation that it looks like Congress is going to be taking up that could really clarify the regulation, regulatory framework more in the U.S. And that's a big positive thing. There's more going on, too, really. This really started over a year ago when the Supreme Court basically forced this Securities and Exchange Commission to actually regulate crypto instead of just suing crypto companies. And that's what led to the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. And they've been around for about a year at this point. So there's a massive amount of institutional investment into

crypto that's increased over the past year. The things that are happening right now in the regulatory framework, they don't guarantee the future, the crypto future that Bulls are predicted, but it should result in continue to increase in investment into the defy and fintech tools that are being built on blockchain. The other thing, too, recently, all of the things with Stablecoin, there's been a massive amount of news. Companies like Shopify partnering with Stablecoin, creators like Circle and Coinbase, which is in the middle of it in Stripe as a payments processor, to start building transactional mechanisms using Stablecoin. The tide is definitely favorable right now for everything crypto. One free bold prediction. I think we'll probably be talking about crypto

on this show later this week again. But after this break, we'll have some bold predictions on individual companies this earning season. What does leadership really look like? On The Power of Advice, a new podcast series from Capital Group, you'll hear from athletes, entrepreneurs, and executives who've led on the field, in the boardroom, and in their communities. It's not about titles. It's about impact.

Discover what drives them and the advice they carry forward. Subscribe and start listening today. Published by Capital Client Group, Inc. Time for a segment we call Bold Predictions. This time with an earnings season. flavor. Emily, start us off. What's your bold prediction on a company who will surprise us this earning season, either on the good side or the bad side? Unfortunately, for me, it's going to be on the bad side, and that is actually Etsy. And this is a fine business. It'd be very clear about that.

Their cash flow positive, and leadership has done a great job, admittedly, over the course of the past decade, of growing this company. But they have made a lot of really questionable acquisitions. And I worry that with the increasing narrative around the type of purchaser that is coming to their platform, there is a disconnect between what management is seeing versus what their customer is seeing. And I see that right now around tariffs. And the reason why I think they could surprise to the downside here for earnings season is because management has come out and said, look, very, very little of our product to ship from China. In fact, if anything, tariffs are going to be a boon for Etsy because we have all these wonderful handmade products right here from the United States. I think any of the consumers who have used Etsy listening to this show are probably aware of the fact that there's a lot more Chinese-made and foreign-made goods on Etsy's platform than leadership is probably willing to admit. And many of those companies and people claiming to ship from the United States actually get their products and raw goods from foreign countries, including China.

So I actually worry a bit here as we had into earning season that the tariff picture for Etsy could be a lot worse than what management thinks. and the reason that could position investors poorly is because management has communicated the exact opposite. So I'll be really interested to see what they say here in the airport earnings at the end of the month. I've got an optimistic one. I've got a bullish one for us here on. And a company called Confluent, ticker CFLT that I've followed really closely. I'm going to make a bold prediction that they beat their guidance. Company set an expectation that subscription revenue was going to grow about 19%. They report close to the end of July. Revenue was up about 26% in the prior quarter in the first quarter. And I think that they're sandbagging, but I think they set a really conservative guidance.

I think they're going to do better and they're going to surprise the market because more and more companies need to be able to take on these data streaming products, especially as AI and being able to make decisions with data in real time becomes more important. The AI tools demand real-time data, and I think Confluence is going to surprise everybody. I'm going with Warner Brothers Discovery myself. Last night I took my 8-year-old to see Superman. I've got good news for comic book fans. They fix the, no spoilers, they fix all the problems that are inherent in the Superman

narratives, and they've built the DC Universe, the Justice League for future films. I'll be very interested to hear the earnings call from Warner Brothers Discovery this quarter. Here at The Motley Fool, we live on feedback and cinematic Universes. To be part of that feedback or to ask a question, email us at podcasts at fool.com. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so I'm by yourself based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards. It's not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only.

See our full advertising disclosure. Please check out our show notes. Philippine, Jason Hall, Jose Naharo, and the entire Motley Full Money team. I'm on in Chaka Ballou. We'll see you tomorrow.