Motley Fool Money - Buffett on Apple, Banks, and Value Investing

Episode Date: May 8, 2023

When Warren Buffett speaks, investors and Wall Street tend to listen. (00:21) Jason Moser discusses: - Berkshire Hathaway's 1st-quarter results and highlights from the annual meeting - Buffett's comments about Apple and the banking industry - Charlie Munger's warning about over-diversification (9:51) In a segment that originated in the Motley Fool Live videostream, Jim Gillies shares observations from his trip to Omaha for the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting with Nick Sciple and Deidre Woollard. The three discuss whether value investing is actually harder for Buffett and Munger than it is for average investors. Companies discussed: BRK.A, BRK.B, AAPL, TSE: HCG Host: Chris Hill Guests: Jason Moser, Nick Sciple, Jim Gillies, Deidre Woollard Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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What? Oh, boy. Fantastic. You guys go hard. Daredevil Born Again, official podcast Tuesdays, and stream season two of Marvel Television's Daredevil Born Again on Disney Plus. Omaha, somewhere in Middle America. We're going to get right to the heart of the matter of the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting.

Motley Fool Money starts now. I'm Chris Hill joining me in studio, Motley Fool's senior analyst, Jason Moser. Thanks for being here. Hey, thanks for having me. Let's talk a little Berkshire Hathaway, shall we? Sure. The marathon, we're going to get to the Q&A in a second. I do just want to point out, I mean, I think it's a sign of what an event the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting is,

and how much attention is paid to the marathon Q&A session that Buffett and Charlie Munger do, that we basically all, just as an investing community, just basically miss the fact that they reported first quarter earnings. That is so secondary. It's just like, oh, by the way, the results were better than expect. Geico is profitable again after a year and a half of not being profitable. Bursher Hathaway now has $130 billion in cash. So, that aside.

They're in a good spot, Chris. They're in a good spot. Let's get to some of the highlights from the Q&A session. And the thing that stood out to me, both as a Berkshire-Hathaway shareholder and as a shareholder of Apple, is the flowers that Buffett was throwing at Apple, basically saying this is the best business we invest in. Well, and yeah, I mean, you know, for the longest time, they really steered clear of, quote-unquote, tech stocks because they just felt like it was outside of their circle of competence, so to speak. And Apple, I think, Apple transcends that.

I mean, I have always said Apple is literally a company could stamp its brand on a rock and sell $3 million. No questions asked. I mean, it is that powerful. And I'm not even kidding. I absolutely believe that. The ira rock. People would just say, hey, it's a special rock.

It's an I rock. It's got some certain quality or property that that brand power alone is phenomenal. It is something that you just don't see every day. And then you add to that the fact that they make really good tech, right? They make really good stuff. That is just a one-two combo that is just really, really formidable, especially over long periods of time. And obviously, we've seen that through the financial performance of the company.

It is just unsurpassed. You just can't think of many, many things in our life that have had the impact on society as a whole as something like the iPhone, right? And he even made that point, I think, in the conversation where you've got a family that is weighing the phone versus a second car, right? Well, they're taking the phone. I mean, that phone is just integral to everything that we do. And that obviously is not going to change. I think the biggest challenge they have is coming up with that next sort of lightning and a bottle product that's not so easily done. But in the meantime, what they've really done well is built this collection of really good products along the way

that the sum of those parts really does. I mean, it's not something that takes the place of what the iPhone is doing. I mean, this is still a phone and a services company. I mean, that's 76% of the overall revenue that this business makes right now. But they do a lot of things well. And I think that it makes a lot of sense when he says it's the best business that they've ever owned because I think it's the best business that a lot of people have ever owned. In reference to the share price, he talked about it, he sounds very much like an investor who

owns shares of Apple and is thinking about buying more shares of Apple. Well, I think that would be a reasonable thing to do. I mean, I was looking through the quarterly results here recently. And I mean, when you see the performance that the business is chalking up today, and again, we look at it primarily through the lens of a phone and a services company. But another story that we've talked a lot about with Apple, who's a lot about, over the past several years is China, not only from the perspective of the consumer, but also from the production side, right?

And Apple is slowly but surely diversifying their supply chain away from China and more towards India. And I think that the point there with India is even more powerful from the consumer side, because when you look at India today, it's around 1.5% of Apple's total business, right? Well, you look at China, China's around 20% of Apple's total business, right? It's about $6 billion that they're bringing in from India versus something like some crazy number from China. I mean, it's to the point now where you start to see the opportunity that could exist within India. And granted, this is a much longer sort of time frame that you have to consider, but it shows you the potential there. And when you then further look into that and you see that Indian consumers are becoming more and more willing to pay higher prices for their phones, well, that plays right in Apple's wheelhouse as well.

So it just goes to show you the opportunity that's still out there on the table for Apple from a geographic perspective. And I certainly understand why he'd be considering adding more. We knew Buffett was going to get questions about banks and the banking industry. and he really seemed kind of frustrated by the communication that's been going on, kind of from all parties. I mean, he didn't hold back from taking some shots at the way Banks like First Republic had been managed, but he made the broader point of, look, fear is contagious, and pretty much every party involved could be doing a better job of assuring people, like, hey, your deposits are safe. It definitely feels that way.

I mean, folks like us here, we talk about this stuff a lot, so we kind of know what the deal is. But you're everyday American out there working the 9 to 5 and really focused on that paycheck. I mean, this is not stuff that really crosses their radar all that often. And it's very understandable. You want to make sure that your money is safe. And it was astounding. I mean, the more regulators seem to try to help, the more panic they create. And, I mean, just why can't they follow the George Costanza model?

Chris, and just do the opposite. For whatever reason, they just can't seem to make that work. But I'm not just blaming regulators. I mean, clearly, this is on management as well, from the executive suites to the boards. I mean, this is all the way around not only putting these banks in this type of a position, but further the communication that really we watched play out over the last month plus. It's just been less than ideal. We always need to be talking about this stuff because I think that's the one.

way we can serve folks is to help educate, let them know that this is all going to be okay. But yeah, by the same token, I mean, you see that the panic that has been created, and once, you said it, it's contagious. Once it gets out there, it's really, really difficult to contain. We were chatting earlier today. Sounds like you enjoyed Charlie Munger's comments about diversification. Yeah, I do. I mean, it's always interesting to sort of score. his comments with the way that we like to invest here, right? Because really, diversification is a very good thing. I mean, I want to lead off with that. But there is a point where you can become

too diversified to where you're really starting to introduce some things in your portfolio you probably shouldn't even have. Now, he did make sure to point out that because this is what they do for a living, they tend to make fewer mistakes, right? They're better investors than all of us because they've been at this for a while. But I think one of the reasons why they're better investors, too, is they realize they don't need to be the smartest guys in the room. They realize that they're not the smartest guys in the room, right? And that's kind of the point, really. It's kind of know your limits. Know what you know and know what you don't know. And, you know, I mean, I said to you earlier before we started taping here, I mean, you look at

some of these social networks. I mean, Twitter's a good example just because it's got such a strong FinTech sort of audience there. But it does feel like it's kind of a contest there to see who can be the smartest guy. And that, you know, the network affects really. That starts to snowball. I think it's really important just to remember, know what you don't know. And when you see something, when you know this is just outside of your circle, I mean, you have two choices. You can choose to dig into it and try to learn more.

Or you can say, you know what, that's just not really worth my time. my time is better served, maybe getting a little bit smarter about something that I know really well already. And I think that was kind of his point there is knowing what you don't know. Diversification is good, but at a point, it can start to be bad. And he just puts it a little bit more bluntly, I guess. That's why we love Munger. That's right. He's 99. He's earned the right to be blunt.

That's right. Jason Moser. Thanks for being there. Thank you. We're sticking with the Berkshire Hathaway meeting in our next segment. because this morning on the Motley Fool live video stream, Nick Seiple, Jim Gillies, and Deidre Woolard shared their takeaways and observations, including whether it actually is harder to be a value investor today, or if that's just the case for Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. So, Jim, since you were there, what was the vibe of the Berkshire Hathaway meeting this year?

I understand you've been to some of the meetings in the past as well. So maybe how does it compare to the vibe to previous meetings? Very optimistic, very much a party. It's very much a lot of old friends getting together, even if you've never met these old friends. There's a very definite sense of community. I was going in with a little bit of trepidation this year. Let's be honest, Warren is 92, and I've thought the last few meetings he's been slowing down. I thought the last few times I've seen him on CNBC recently, he's been slowing down. Charlie is 99. and starting to look at.

I was concerned, to be perfectly modern, part of my rationale for going, this could be the last meeting of the Warren and Charlie show. And I was pleasantly surprised. I thought they were both far sharper than they'd been the last couple of years when I've been watching virtually, and of course for a couple years when we all had to watch virtually, I thought they were sharper. I thought Charlie was especially sharp, like rapier sharp. He cut a few, cut a few sacred cows there.

They did slow down in the afternoon, but then again, so did everyone else. I can neither confirm or deny there was a member of the fool contingent who may have knotted off midway through the afternoon, and we had the picture. I thought it was a good meeting. If you've watched any of these, you've seen any of the past, the questions aren't terribly new. So there's a lot of stuff that's a lot of repeats. from years prior and questions and answers. Buffett will always talk about, you know, I think one very common thing I think I've seen

practically every time. What country does Buffett say you should bet on for capitalism? America, you know, by America. I'm thinking back to was it 99 or 2000 when the article in Fortune magazine was by America, I am. You know, so that was very, that was very popular. Buffett has also mastered the art, I think, of a kid. occasionally answering the question he wants to answer rather than the question you just asked, which I love.

And so when people wanted to talk about AI, naturally Buffett talked about the risk of nuclear. And he did compare AI. So like nuclear, some things can't be uninvented, some things can't be undone once they are known and understood. And he mentioned AI there. And then, of course, went on a bit of a talk about nuclear and not in the power. percent, Nick, which of course, what we're interested in, but in the, shall we say, the weapons potential. They talk about a little bit about value investing. Charlie, I thought, was surprisingly dower about the future for value investors. They were both kind of, they were both kind of,

well, you know, value investors might have to get used to lower returns because there's so many people doing it. I think there was some allusion to AI as well. I, I, I, I, I, I I don't have my notes in front of me here. And Fools, Nick and I will be doing a session together later today for recording. It'll probably go out to various places about more digging in deep. So I want to destroy the entire show here today talking about this. But just talking about how value investors would have to maybe accept lower returns for just so many people, there's so much competition.

That was Charlie's assertion. Warren disagreed with him somewhat, and I vehemently disagree with Charlie Munger. And I love Charlie Munger. In fact, I might like Charlie more than Warren, frankly. because he's just more my jam, very acerbic and very kind of, you know. And so, yeah, no, I very much disagreed with that assertion. But then again, I was never less than lower returns than what. I would be my question, you know, like multi-baggers in 18 months, you know,

that's difficult to do for everything, including growth or whatever. But I'm not sure I'm buying it. They talked a lot about deals. They had a Jeet and Jane and Greg Gable in the morning who were talking about the challenges for Brolyton Northern Santa Fe and Berkshire Hathaway Energy as well as Geico. So I thought it was a really well-rounded meeting. I met a lot of fools there. A lot of folks I know via other channels as well who may or may not have a connection to the fool. We had a lot of BFOFs show up, which was fantastic. We had an impromptu gathering on the Friday at 4 o'clock, and a lot of BFOFs made the trek,

which we are still kind of stunned and humbled by, frankly. But it might be easier if we just kind of maybe move to a Q&A rather than me just kind of riffing. on the meeting if that's okay. Obviously, we got five hours of Warren and Charlie. We're not going to talk about all five hours, but maybe a thing that stood out. I have one that Jim mentioned. So this idea of Charlie Munger says, hey, maybe we should be expecting lower returns over the long term for value investors than you have seen previously.

And Warren Buffett, the other side of that kind of exchange was the one that really popped out to me. said, you know, I think he said, quote, what gives you opportunities is other people doing dumb things. During the 58 years, you've been running Berkshire, I would say there's been a great increase in the number of people doing dumb things, and they do big, dumb things. And the reason they continue to do it to some extent is because they can get money from people so much easier than when they started. So there's two sides of that coin. So Charlie Munger is saying you should expect lower returns over a longer period of time because there's lots of money looking for returns

in the market, creating lots of competition for returns. Whereas in the past, you know, Ben Graham before them, but Warren and Charlie, Charlie could find companies that nobody was paying attention to, trading for less than what you could go, you know, sell them for cash out in the market. Now, there's a lot of screeners that would probably pick those things out. And if they're trading for that level, there's a reason for that, at least for some, there's other reasons, Jim is grading. There's other reasons about liquidity and things like I have to create opportunities, but there's certainly more people looking for opportunities than what have been in the past and more tools to do it versus just flipping through the Moody's manual.

But what Buffett is saying is that it's not the fact that there's lots of people looking for opportunities. It's the fact that there are as cognitive biases among those large groups of people that create those opportunities. And I think there's a tweet that both Gemini shared that our old friend John Rotante put out there, just quoting Warren Buffett as well, that says the investing public does not learn a lot over or long, does not learn much as the direct direct quote. So, you know, Munger is looking at the amount of cash floating around in the system, and Buffett is looking at the people. And while the way people go about investing and things like that has changed over time, people are still flawed in very predictable ways. And I think

that's what creates opportunities and markets. That's kind of why I come out on the Warren Buffett side of things. But those are two very valid perspectives to have, that there is a lot more money chasing, investing opportunities than there would have been 50 years ago. But they're the same types of people that are, that are, you know, making the same types of mistakes that you can look to, you know, find opportunities in. The way I like to. Those are, that's an exchange that I thought was interesting. Yeah, no, that's, that is excellent.

And I, that is, I, I don't often disagree with Munger. I'll put it that way. But I vehemently disagree with Munger on this one, which is a nice feeling for me. The idea, I don't care how much money is out there. I really don't because there's so many opportunities, particularly in, in small cap space, the smaller, the unloved, which, you know, Buffett and Munger and Berkshire are going for, you know, they have to go for the elephant gun, or they have to bring out the elephant gun. They have to go for the large because something, there is a company

in Canada called Home Capital Group that a few years ago got into trouble. They were down 65, 70 percent in a day. And they're in my, after they had, they had some issues. They were trailing down for a while, but they had some issues. And I have, I have a small small club of companies that got, that get pummeled 40, 50, 60 percent in a day. And those are kind of, those are fires I like to run to. I'm not talking bank, put banks over here, fools. But companies that we're going to take leverage out of it, but companies that have a very bad quarter or perception of bad quarter and gets sold off 40, 50, 60 percent in a day,

I have a short list of those. And they're like six and six month and one year returns are, I would have a lot, and one-year returns are, outstanding because it scares people away. Why? Because people are hurt animals. Sorry, that might not be terribly appropriate to say, people are hurt animals. That's why Peter Lynch can put up a, what, 13-year track record of 29.2 percent annualized. And the average investor, apocryphal, perhaps, but the story is raised. The average investor in his fund annualized it about four, because people buy at the top, they sell at the bottom, they wait for it to rebate, it to rebound, then they go back and buy at the top again. And I will argue, and I think,

I'm sure I'm going to get in trouble for this one. The best thing about trying, the best thing you can do as an investor is try to, you know, the zebra who breaks from the herd is dinner, but investing we're not zebras, you know, and investing shouldn't be a herd animal sport. And if you are willing to not be a herd animal and you're willing to go to, you know, to places where other people aren't willing to go to, that is the essence of value investing. And I still think you're going to do all right. Bejra, any exchanges or questions that popped out to you as extra interesting from the weekend or anything like that?

Yeah, I tend to be a Munger fan as well, just because Warren will talk for a long time, and then Munger will say like one sentence. And it's just like a perfect little jab. Yeah, the thing I disagree with him about, and he's done this before, foremonger about the divorceification about, you know, that's something he tends to keep hitting on is like, you don't need to invest in a wide variety of things. You just need to have two or three good ideas. I tend to disagree with that, but maybe that's because I don't trust my own ideas as much as I should, but I tend to like to cast a wider net. But overall, one of the things

I love from watching this, and I know they do it to like pull on our heartstrings, but it gets me every damn time is when they have kids asking questions. And they had, they had a fair dose of that this time. They had a lot of kids asking about, about climate change and about, you know, about the future of the country and all of that. So that was one of the things that I know why they do it, but yeah, I'm still a sucker for it. And just the idea that some of the kids that were asking questions, this was their like third or fourth meeting and they're like 13. I'm like, yes. That makes me very encouraged for the future. Remember, Motley Fool Live is available to members of any Motley Fool service.

As always, people on the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy ourselves stocks based solely on what you hear. I'm Chris Hill. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.