Motley Fool Money - Earnings-Palooza and a Meaty IPO
Episode Date: May 3, 2019Apple surprises. Alphabet stumbles. Berkshire Hathaway loads up on Amazon. And Beyond Meat serves up a big IPO. Analysts Andy Cross, Ron Gross, and Jason Moser discuss these stories and dig into the l...atest earnings from Arista Networks, CBS, Mastercard, Shake Shack, Shopify, Spotify, Square, Twilio, Under Armour, and Wayfair. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money Radio Show.
I'm Chris Hill joining me in studio this week's senior analyst Jason Moser, Andy Cross, and Ron Gross.
Good to see you, as always, gentlemen.
Hey, hey, Chris.
It is earnings paloza.
We have got so many stories.
We don't even have a guest this week.
But as always, we will give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar.
And for the second week in a row, we begin with a company joining Club Trillion, if only for a short time.
Yes, Apple's market cap briefly crossed the $1 trillion mark after its second quarter report
showed double-digit growth in the Services Division and the Wearables Division.
And that's good, Andy, because the iPhone division revenue was about $6.5 billion lighter than a year ago.
Yeah, moving in the wrong direction there.
It's really the wearables and services as Apple continues to transition away from the iPhone.
The services now make up 20% of total sales up from 16% last quarter.
Gross margins two times as high as on the product side.
So really, the new service is Apple Card coming on.
Apple Arcade, which is mobile gaming, the streaming, obviously we've been talking a lot about.
Apple News is actually starting to have a lot more relevance now.
The wearables themselves, just the wearables, Chris, was up 50%.
So that's things like AirPods and the Apple Watch.
So as they continue to push and push further away from the iPhone, transition away from the iPhone, which the sales have not been good.
I think they had the worst quarter of iPhone sales, the steepest drop of all time.
It's really about the wearables, and that's good for the profit picture. Revenue is not growing.
They continue to buy back a load of stock. That drives the stock price up to basically back where it was six months ago and almost that trillion dollar mark, as you mentioned, Chris.
I'm glad you mentioned that because there was sort of a, oh, by the way, we're also allocating another 75.
billion dollars to buy back stock.
I wouldn't mind a little special dividend again, you know, to, you know, juice the wheels a little bit.
I'm not buying this stock for Apple Arcade. Let me get that straight on the record right at this very moment.
But I do believe in the ecosystem. I do believe in the service business. But you know what?
That whole thing kind of does flow from the hardware. It kind of is, you know, we can't just sweep the hardware story under the rug because the whole thing tumbles if the top of the funnel doesn't work.
Yeah, but they have it so it's maybe stable, maybe not.
maybe just not quite growing as fast. And then they're adding the wearables, adding the software,
adding the services onto that. And that's going to actually juice the profit picture, too.
So the services growth, I looked at it and I thought, well, that's nice, but it wasn't 25, 30 percent,
something like that really would catch your eye. It seems like they're moving in the right direction,
but they need a few more quarters of services growth before it starts to become really meaningful.
Well, I think that's right, Chris. So it's 20 percent of sales. As I mentioned, the gross margin is 64 percent versus
31% for the product. So the profit picture is really right there. I agree. This is a transition. It's
a Tim Cook narrative. He's been talking about. They're making progress on there. But you have to
kind of see this. But for a company this size that generates this amount of capital to have
this kind of transition is pretty big, and they are moving along pretty nicely on that.
Alphabet put up nice profits in the first quarter, but shares fell on Tuesday because ad revenue
growth is declining. And Ron, this was the worst day shareholders have seen in more than six years.
2012 or so, 65 billion plus erased from market gap. Do you realize how big that is, Chris?
Companies would kill to be that big. Some countries would kill to be that big. So not an inconsequential day for Alphabet.
As you say, fear of decelerating growth of Google's advertising revenue, CFO Ruth Porett,
blamed deceleration of click growth on YouTube for the slowdown. Still, you had revenue growth of 16.
7% year over year. But that was light compared to expectations. Part of that due to currency
translations, which obviously they can't control. Paid clicks up 39%. Cost per click, decline
19%. Cost per click, once again, is the metric that shows how much Google makes per ad. So
that's down 19%. You throw in some one-time costs and some fines from Europe for antitrust
issues, and you've got operating income down 15%. You strip out some of that. You actually have an
increase in operating of 9%. So, you know, they're still growing. They're still putting up numbers.
But deceleration, specifically on the ad business YouTube, is cause for concern.
You know, Facebook saw a little decline in their cost per click or revenue per click as well, too.
I don't think that dramatic. But they saw a lot more ad impressions served across their platform.
So it's kind of the same narrative on the per unit basis that we're seeing between Facebook
and Alphabet might lead to some indications that that market is not quite as stable from the pricing
perspective, as we may have thought.
You go back a couple of years when the company reorganized its corporate structure, and
once we all got over the fact that they had decided to name the company, Al-I'm not over
yet, by the way.
There was a lot of talk of, well, this is going to provide more transparency. It's going
to give Wall Street and everyday investors more insight into how the business is doing.
But you look at a quarter like this, and Ron, you're reminded of the fact that, no, they're
still going to be as opaque as they want to be. Because Ruth Borat, you know,
and her colleagues didn't really give a lot of color as to why they're seeing the drops that they're seeing.
Correct. Not a lot of color going back. Not a lot of color going forward. Guidance is lacking.
There's not a lot here. So you're buying it because you believe still in the business and the growth that they can put up.
That's why deceleration gets to be so dicey. 24 times only, right? This is not one of these high-flying growth stocks, tech stocks that you think about. 24 times is not that expensive.
Shares of Shopify up more than 15% this week after first quarter of revenue was up 50%.
Shopify is not profitable, Jason, but I don't think anyone appears to care.
No, it really doesn't look like anybody cares. You can never underestimate the power of mission-driven
leadership. I mean, their vision really is to make commerce better for everyone. That's what
guides the moves that they make with the business. And clearly, the market loves what they're doing.
I think a lot of that has to do with a massive market opportunity they're pursuing a
along with the fact that they're never sitting still.
I mean, the pace of innovation at Shopify is really impressive,
and that's resulting in that top-line growth that you mentioned.
Interesting to see they're getting in the hardware game, kind of like Square.
They have Shopify Capital, which is similar to Square Capital.
They issued $88 million in loans and cash advances.
That was up 45% from a year ago.
And back to your point, though, I think that you need to keep in mind it is an unprofitable business.
It's going to be that way for a while.
And we've seen the market give these types of businesses credit as they do their thing.
But when you have a share price, it's not based on really any fundamentals.
I mean, that does open it up for a little bit of higher risk on the downside if we hit some tumultuous times.
And really, one of the biggest drivers for Shopify is the consumer, right?
And so the consumer's feeling pretty good today between unemployment and wages.
Let's just have to kind of keep an eye on the future there.
But I do like where this business is going.
I think it'll be really interesting to watch the Square and Shopify continue to go after each other's market as Square.
But we believe they go into the online store commerce side.
As you mentioned, Jason's Shopify now having their Shopify tap and chip card reader, their retail stand for iPad.
So these two massive companies, servant leadership, great innovative culture is starting to clash against each other.
An interesting comparison there. You put them side by side.
And after this earnings season, the market is valuing these two companies at basically the same.
same, around $28 billion market caps. Squares bringing in three times the revenue to Shopify
is. So clearly there's a little bit of an expectations thing there.
We had talked recently about Amazon and how they continue to invest money and how a lot of
investors are looking for them to continue doing that. Shopify, obviously, is smaller
and younger company than Amazon. But do you think there's sort of the same mentality for
a lot of investors that, yeah, we're not so anxious for you to get profitable. We'd rather
see you investing more money.
I think so because it's a massive and reliable market. We're talking about commerce and
e-commerce, and that's always going to be around. And really, when you're seeing companies
like Shopify and Square, really trying to build out more seamless services and ecosystems.
I mean, I think investors generally are going to give them a little bit of slack.
Let's not forget, though, in a sustainable market, investors will give companies the benefit
of that doubt. If things turn south, look out below.
First quarter results for ERISTA networks looked good, but shares of the computer networking
company fell more than 15% on Friday after Wall Street did not like Arista's guidance.
You tell me, Andy, how bad was this guidance?
Yeah, speaking of turning south, I mean, both the stock price as well as the reason for
the stock price dropped today, which was the guidance for the second quarter, Chris, coming
forward, sales growth, expectation of just 15% to 17% that's down from more than 26% in the
first quarter.
And I think from based on what I could tell, their worst quarter would be their worst quarter.
sales growth performance since they've come public over the last few years. So really, the guidance
around how ERISA's clients, especially the very large cloud titans, so these are like the
Microsofts of the world, how they are spending, where they are spending. That seemed to slow down
pretty dramatically in March based on what we heard from ERISA. And that has hurt both the expectations
for the top line growth and really trying to understand for the second quarter. But really,
what does it mean for the rest of the year, Chris? Will this be more of a
slowdown for Arista that's going to last. And so when you look at the difference between 15%
top line grower and 20% top line grower, when you add it all in over a decade, Ron, that's
basically about $3 billion worth of profits in today's dollars. You did the math? I did the math.
I was told there being no math. That's basically the market cap drop in Arista today.
So do you think there are enough questions in the near term around Arista that this drop that
we're seeing doesn't necessarily represent a huge buying opportunity? Well, no, I'm
I think it does. Now, here's the thing. The opportunity for Arista is they made this acquisition
of Mojo, which allows them to push into kind of campus data integration with Wi-Fi and provide
bigger as these companies, not just the Cloud Titans, but large companies in general expand their
Wi-Fi networking capabilities and demand for that. That really plays into this space for
Arista. And that's an opportunity that they haven't really quite baked into their guidance.
So that's an opportunity there. Lots of innovation still going on in Arista. But, you know,
when your clients, Microsoft's, I think their cloud business has been growing about 100% a year.
Now that's down to maybe like 70% a year.
Maybe those companies are not quite interested in buying the equipment and the services as much as they used to.
They bought a company called Mojo?
At any point, did they consider changing the name to Mojo networks?
Because that's a little catcher.
It could be, yeah.
Earnings Paloza is going to roll on right after this.
So stay right here.
You're listening to Motley Full Money.
Welcome back to Charter an accountant and sail the wide accountancy.
Welcome back to Motley Full Money, Chris Hill here in studio with Jason Moser, Andy Cross, and Ron Gross.
This weekend, Berkshire Hathaway holds its annual meeting,
but CEO Warren Buffett made some news on Friday when he disclosed the company had bought shares of Amazon.
And Ron, he was very quick to point out he was not the one doing the buying.
He's so foxy. I love it.
He says, one of the fellows in the office, one of the fellows being taught,
Ted, who managed you $13 billion each, just, you know, one of the guys. But it is an interesting,
it's interesting to note that finally, Berkshire is getting in here. You may remember, or you
may not remember, that back in 2001, 2002, they did actually buy some Amazon bonds that were
priced as junk, and they made an 84% return largely as a result of the falling dollar. That
helped to juice that return. But here they are back in the stock. I'm glad to see, because
I think Warren was kind of anchoring there for a while, and he kept saying, it's a mistake
I made, it's a mistake I made, I should have bought it. I always believed in Bezos, but I never
did it. And so he wasn't doing it. But luckily, one of the fellows in the office are not
anchoring and decided that they're still upside.
The war on cash hitting a bit of a stumble this week, as Square's first quarter report came
with some disappointing guidance and shares of Square falling nearly 10 percent on Thursday, Jason.
Yeah, I mean, we talk about being business-focused investors. I think Squire is a very good example
of this. The market selling the stock in my mind was a bit short-sighted, because when you
go through the report and the call, they're clearly hitting all the targets they're aiming
for, and there's still a ton of market share to capture. So, I think all in all, those are good
reasons enough to own the stock for me, at least. When you look at the numbers, adjusted
revenue was up 49 percent from a year ago on an organic basis. The gross payment volume,
which was $22.6 billion was up 27 percent. I always like to compare that to PayPal, just for
some context. PayPal's gross payment volume for the same quarter was $161 billion. So obviously,
PayPal's a lot bigger, but that also shows there's a lot of market out there to capture. Cash
app volume grew two and a half times from a year ago. And while that's not really something
they're monetizing, I see Cash App as more of an engagement tool, something to bring people
up into that square ecosystem. And they made reference to the 65 million plus unbanked or
underbanked Americans. And that really is a big opportunity as well. And just, you know, one
final note, on a global perspective, they are seeing some headwinds in Japan turning into tailwinds
as Japan is laid down this ultimatum. They want to grow card-based payments from 20% today to 40% by
2025. So Square is starting to lay down routes there in Japan to help them do that, showing that this
is a global opportunity. And with the Olympics and the Rugby World Cup coming up in Japan,
then it's got some really good investment for Square to make. I mean, I think Cash App has 15 million
monthly active users now or something like that. Something like that.
It's a top 20 app in the iTunes store.
So, yes, that's continuing to build out that ecosystem and trying to tie together,
not just business and consumer, but consumer to consumers, a nice move for Square.
And I think, just like Shopify, this is another business where the pace of innovation is just so impressive.
I mean, I think the market sees that as willing to give it a little bit of slack,
because, again, fairly reliable market, massive market opportunity.
There are some constants there.
The rugby what?
World Cup.
You're so global.
Yes.
It's huge, man.
Shares of MasterCard up a bit this week after a first quarter report was, everything looked really good, Andy.
And another reminder that I'm an idiot for never buying this stuff.
Revenue was up.
Profits are up.
The transaction volume was up.
Yeah, I mean, another good example of why MasterCard has just been one of the global giants when it comes to not just payments,
but just a really steady, high returns business.
up 15% in the last three months to almost now 250. It was 175 back in December. It's 52-week low.
Revenues up 9% versus the 8% that analysts were expecting. And 13% if you back out the currency,
obviously a lot of currency effects for a company like MasterCard. Across all of their areas,
across the globe, the volumes were good, the payments were good. Like you said, Chris,
the switch transaction volumes, I think we're up 17%. 7% now more cards available.
using MasterCard and Maestro. So, you know, that's 2.5 billion cards out there. They continue
to generate cash, high earnings, buy back stock, pay a little dividend, give good guidance,
and investors have recognized the stock price for that.
I mean, I thought you were going to be jumping into that war on cash basket with me like a year
and a half ago. A market fool, or you didn't do that?
I've got a little PayPal. All right. Well, that's better than nothing.
First quarter profits for Under Armour came in higher than expected. Jason, once again,
strong international growth for Under Armour. Sharon's basically flat this week.
Yeah, I mean, slowly but surely, their turnaround is gaining some traction. I do think if
they keep this up, there is a very attractive risk-reward scenario here. I mean, you
remember Lulu Lemon a while back. I mean, that was our whipping post for quite some time.
Fast forward to today, and I mean, Lulu Lemon is more than twice as big as Under Armour now.
So it can happen. And based on the results from this quarter, it sounds like they're heading
in the right direction. CFO David Bergman and C.O. Patrick Frisk continue to play a very pivotal
role in the business, in the calls. I think Plank is finally given into having that team and relying
on that team. Inventory was down 24 percent. That's good. That means they don't have
to resort to fire sales to unload inventory. They are moving more towards that premium price
point and further away from the discounting. But the challenge, the real challenge remains
in North America. That segment revenue is down through.
And I like to compare that to Nike because you get an idea of what the overall market's looking like.
For the same quarter, Nike just reported 7% growth in the North American segment.
So clearly, Under Armour has work to do domestically.
International is, Ron, firing on cylinders.
The balance sheet is getting healthier.
So they're doing those things that we were looking for them to do to get this business going back in the right direction.
I think shareholders ought to be at least somewhat encouraged by that.
Yeah, number I saw that was encouraging to me.
Jason was, inventory was down 24% footwear up 8%. So they continue to, as we've talked about,
over the past couple months, to try to get the operating platform for Under Arm on the
right footing. And they've done some success with that this quarter.
I mean, you listen to that call, and you really do see how well Bergman and Frist know
this business and how much value they're bringing to Kevin Plank. And so I suspect he will
be keeping them on for the duration. Again, we said if they left, that would be a big red flag.
Real quick, what are they doing to prepare for the Olympics next year?
Because it is an opportunity for the Nike's and the Under Armies of the World Team.
I mean, they are, they continue to bring out new product.
They are focused on getting their athlete partners to help give them some input.
They also just laid down roots in India with their first Under Armour brand store there.
So that's another big, massive opportunity there.
And you joke, but they are a sponsor of rugby teams.
Of course there.
We've had some crazy IPOs lately, but the one we had on Thursday was beyond anything we've seen in a long time.
Time. Details next. This is Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money, Chris Hill here in
studio with Jason Moser, Andy Cross, and Ron Gross. On Thursday, Beyond Meat went public at $25 a share.
And while Wall Street has plenty of carnivores, it clearly has an appetite for the producer of
plant-based meat substitutes because at the closing bell on Thursday, shares of Beyond Meat
closed at more than $68 a share. Jason, what is this? Because this looks at this look
It looks like madness.
Well, I was going to say mania. I mean, there is a mania going on right now with these
IPOs. This was even a bit more than I think any of us expected. I'm certain that the underwriters
of this IPO didn't expect this kind of a pop either, because in theory, you're looking
at that thing and they left a lot of money on the table. I mean, Beyond Meat is an interesting
business. We took a look through the S-1 with industry focus a few months back. It is a massive
market opportunity. They're not targeting vegetarians or vegans. They're actually targeting.
targeting the $1.5 trillion global meat industry. Thinking folks that eat meat, maybe we'll
look at Beyond Meat as something they could add to their menu if they're looking to cut back
on the meat that they're eating. One of the bigger risks with this business today, though,
and we're not going to know as much about this until what we see them report at least one or
two quarters, is there's a very concentrated supply chain right now. The key ingredient for what
they make is P-protein. They have a core supplier for that. And the idea with the IPO was to be
able to build out that supply chain, that's going to have to happen in order for them to sell more
stuff. They're going to have to sell a whole heck of a lot more stuff to value selling it 40 times
sales today. Same store sales for ShakeShack came in much higher than expected in the first quarter.
Help me understand what happened here, Ron, because the report came out Thursday evening and the
stock pop nearly 10 percent, and then Friday morning it gave all that back and a little bit more.
Well, this ain't pea protein, Chris. This is protein protein. I think what happened is that the
Top line number was really strong, but once you delve in, you see that the margins are actually weak,
which could be trouble for a stock that's priced 94 times earnings. So revenue up 34%, 34%, 34 new store
openings, same shack sales. God, I hate it so much. Same shack sales up 3.6%. So those are good
numbers, right? Shack level operating profit up 12.5%. But shack level operating profit, by the way,
I think this is what we used to call four-wall contribution, you know, what happens within the four walls of each store.
Those operating margins fell, increased promotional costs, higher commodity costs, higher labor costs.
I think that's what we really have to be careful to keep an eye on here.
Because if those continue to fall, then there's no way 94 times earnings can be sustainable.
So where do we think this whole industry is going?
Because also this week we saw restaurant brands, which is the parent company of Burger King,
They reported, and one of the things they said was the test that Burger King's been doing
in St. Louis for the Impossible Whopper, which is their meatless burger, they're going to roll
that out nationally. That's gone well. McDonald's reported this week. They were asked about
this, and they said, we're absolutely looking into this. I'm wondering if this is now table
stakes, no pun intended, for investors looking at the burger industry in the same way that we
look at restaurants and we ask as investors, what is your delivery strategy? Because it's
2019 and you need to have one. Is this now a must-have for these types of businesses? Like, what is your
meatless strategy? I don't know, but I'm getting hungry, first of all. And second of all, that I
heard also that IKEA is thinking about trying to find a meatless substitute for their Swedish
meatballs at their store as well. Say it is. Just considering the, as consumer trends are evolving
and growing more towards healthier options, the restaurant companies have to compete. Yeah, I do think
The restaurants that offer these types of options, other restaurants, even think about
celiac, for example, where you need to go somewhere where there's no gluten involved, right?
And there are some restaurants that really cater to that audience.
I think if you're a restaurant and you're catering to all of those audiences, that definitely
gives you a leg up because you're expanding yourself to really the biggest customer base.
And also the customers, they'll give you that loyalty.
There's a trust that's established there that I don't think customers will dismiss so quickly.
This has to be the future. Whether it's P-protein or actually genetically creating animal-like products in the laboratory,
it's got to be the future, I think, of how humans eat. I can't imagine 50, certainly 100 years from now,
that we're still in the business of raising animals, slurring animals, and eating animals in the same way that we are now.
Mixed first quarter for CBS. Profits were a little higher than expected. Revenue was a little bit lower.
Andy, I don't know if CBS is struggling, but they are definitely treading water.
Well, they are in some regards, Chris.
The excitement, though, comes down to the Super Bowl they had this quarter,
contributed really nicely to the ad sales, but it's really all about streaming.
They featured their chief digital officer on the call,
talked a lot about the directing consumer business that they're selling to Hulu and Amazon and Roku.
They're spending $8 billion in programming this year.
So while it is an old-fashioned kind of media brand, they are trying to evolve and trying to grow.
They want to have 25 million subscribers between Showtime and CBS All Access by 2022.
They have like 5 million now or something like that.
So when you think about how CBS is going to evolve, I think shareholders are starting to say,
hey, maybe there's something here and the stock has come off nicely from its lows in December.
They had the masters this year, as we saw, and that helped the ad business.
The PGA Championship, Jason, is in May this year.
A couple weeks, yeah.
So, yeah, so that will come into next quarter.
So I think there's some excitement going on from the ad business, but it's really on the streaming side that has investors.
If they're excited at all, it's with excitement with the streaming side.
I think the streaming side for these legacy networks, NBC, CBS, ABC, the streaming side lies in Hulu's ecosystem.
I think that Hulu is where those legacy providers are going to get the most bang for their buck, trying to sell their offering on their
own, I think is going to be not very fruitful.
But CBS at least owns most of its own content.
So they have that going forward.
Yeah, that's actually a very nice strength for them too.
Shares of Spotify down this week after a first quarter report that included both a loss
and the fact that Spotify now has 100 million paying subscribers.
How expensive is this business to run, Jason?
That they've got 100 million people paying them and they're not profitable.
Well, I mean, we've said it before, the economics of the music business.
suck. I mean, the question I keep asking myself with this company is, is there a competitive
advantage with the business? I mean, some sort of switching cost or pricing power, and I'm not
convinced there is. But with that said, the platform continues to bring in users, and that's the
most crucial part of the equation today. Monthly active is up to $217 million for the quarter.
They're tapping into India as well. Now, 2 million users there. On the premium side,
users grew to $100 million. That was up 32% from a year ago. There's a Samsung partnership where
new Samsung devices are going to come out preloaded with Spotify, so that ought to help the
cause. But really, I think podcasting has probably been the word of the quarter as they made big
investments in a couple of acquisitions with Gimlet Media and Anchor. They now have 250,000 podcast
titles, which I was astounded to see that number. I mean, not shows. I mean, like, separate
individual titles, right? 250,000. So they are really looking to tap into that to generate
users. I got to say, the one thing that really derives me nuts with this business, the share
repurchase program is they keep on buying back these shares. They spent $225.5 million
over the past several quarters to buy back $1.7 million shares. And this is a business that
needs every bit of cash you can get to invest, pay royalties, yada, yada, yada. So, you know,
for what it's worth, I'm not invested in the company.
I'll just add that a few of those podcasts you can listen to on Spotify, or Motley Fool podcast.
That's right. Coming up, we've got a couple more earnings and a few stocks on our radar. Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you're here. Welcome back to Motley Full Money, Chris Hill. In studio. I'm still in studio. And I'm still here with Jason Moser, Andy Cross, and Ron Gross. First quarter profits and revenue came in higher than expected for Twilio. This is.
the Cloud Communications Platform company shares a Twilio down a bit this week, Andy. I'm assuming
that because of the run that this stock has had over the past year, this was one of those
quarters where if they didn't absolutely crush every aspect of it, the stock wasn't going
to go up.
That's right, Chris. When you sell it 25 times sales, I mean, you just have to deliver outstanding,
I mean, above expectation, outstanding guidance and results. I mean, it was a really nice
quarter. They now have 155,000 active.
accounts when you added in the SendGrid, which was their email application they bought for about
$3 billion. When you think about the pairing of those two, what they're doing with the Twilio Flex
and they featured Shopify is a really great client when it comes to unifying all of your
customer service applications for clients. I mean, Jeff Lawson building this business, looking to
the future, growing revenue, adding SendGrid, building in some gross margin improvements with that
and credit acquisition. They are really doing quite well, but the revenue growth and guidance
just might not have lived up those super high expectations. Investors kind of went, eh.
The stock has tripled in the last year. Do you wait for a pullback? Do you wait, do you hope
and pray for a terrible quarter so you can jump in on this stock? Or do you just think this is
one of those companies like we talk about from time to time that's never really going to look
cheap? Well, yeah, I don't think it will ever look really cheap on a traditional metric. So I
I would certainly feel if you wanted to buy a little bit now, go ahead, but save some for a
pullback.
You will get pullback.
December was a time where you could have bought a lot of these companies.
Still didn't look cheap, by the way, but you did get your pullback.
Let's move on to Wayfair, the online home furnishings company.
First quarter revenue was up nearly 40%.
They're getting more customers, Jason, but they are losing a lot more money.
They are.
I tell you, I'm really impressed with what management has done with this business to this point,
but there are some areas that investors want to keep a close eye on in the coming quarters.
I mean, the numbers generally are all headed in the right direction.
Revenue was up 39% to $1.9 billion.
As you mentioned, 16.4 million active customers.
Now, that was up 39% from a year ago.
And even total orders delivered were up 39% from a year ago.
Repeat customers play 66% of the orders in the quarter
versus 64.3% a year ago.
And we've always talked about the repeat customer being a key metric
because that makes customer acquisition costs less going forward.
I do want to mention, though, that on a sequential basis, when you start looking a few
quarters back, it does look like they're kind of hitting a ceiling there with that number.
So if that does stick there around 66 or 67, we may see some costs going up.
And I think that was really the concern with the quarter was that while gross margin was
up 100 basis points, they are still spending a lot.
Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue grew to 34.1% versus 30.4% a year ago.
So it's just costing them a lot of money to run this business.
We've talked about the market giving some of these companies credit.
They've given Wayfair credit to this point.
I don't know how much longer they will.
Obviously, the consumer drives this business, but they're doing things the right way.
That's what you have to do to build out this business.
I just don't know how long the market's going to keep giving a credit.
It's a $13 billion company.
Do you think three years from now, Wayfair is still a standalone public company,
or does someone come in and make them a big offer?
I mean, I would not be surprised to see one of the bigger retailers like Walmart or Target make them an offer because that would be an easy entry into the e-commerce market for a very reliable market in home furnishings and goods. But, man, they could have gotten it a lot cheaper earlier.
Our email address is Radio at Fool.com. Question from Misha in Canada who writes,
I heard many people on the show talk about keeping a percentage of your portfolio in cash. Why not just keep it in a bond fund instead?
given that bonds yield much more than cash. Doesn't it make sense for most investors to hold this,
especially if it represents a significant part of your portfolio, say 20% or more?
I'd love your thoughts on what I might be missing. Love the show. Love all that you guys do.
We love you, Misha. So thank you for the question.
Ron, what do you think?
I think that's a very fair comment. So historically, bonds outperform cash by about 2%.
So they do outperform it, but it's not some huge number. Right now, that number is down to about
1%. So lots of folks don't think it's worth the risk of owning bonds or bond funds, which
can decrease in value just for the extra 1%. However, having said that, I think it's perfectly
reasonable to own a combination. Some cash in an interest-bearing account, when we say cash,
we don't mean just under the mattress. Some cash in an interest-bearing account and some bond
funds that you perhaps can take some risk because interest rates will affect prices of bonds
and prices of bond funds.
So we've talked before about when we think about having cash in our portfolio, part
of the reason we do that in it is because we want to be able to take advantage of drops,
that sort of thing.
If you got a bond fund, that's not necessarily the most liquid thing in the world.
Is there essentially the ETF version of that you could like, oh, I could sell that a little
more quickly and allocate it towards a stock that drops, say, ERISA networks?
Yeah, I mean, yes.
Yes, I mean, yes, there are lots of EETFs out there that kind of mimic that, but it's
It's still a holding that can lose value.
And when you want to be able to put that money to use, you want to have that money available
for you to use very quickly.
So I think preferred is to really set it aside in a really liquid cash option inside your
brokerage account.
All right, let's get to the stocks on our radar and our man behind the glass.
Steve Brodow is going to hit you with a question.
And we have a little bit of time if you want to hit them with one background.
Ooh.
What are you looking at?
I got Vail Resorts, MTN, been expanding really nicely.
through strategic acquisitions, expanding its properties. They've got great operating, leverage,
solid cash flow generation, discipline capital allocation. I like these acquisitions that they've been
making. They've increased their dividend for the last eight years in a row, and that dividend now stands
at 3.1%, which is not too shabby. So I think you have a nice total return opportunity here to
buy the stock, and you'll get appreciation in the stock, as well as get a nice dividend yield.
Steve, question about Vail resorts?
So, innovations in the skiing world.
So we had snowboarding like 25 years ago and nothing.
What's new here?
What am I missing?
What's going on?
Going downhill on two skis.
I got it.
Yeah, that remains pretty much the status quo.
Now, I will say a 2011 law allows Vail to use their resorts for more than just winter activities for summer.
So it makes it a less cyclical business.
They're able to generate some revenue all year round.
So that's the bigger trend in this industry.
But for the most part, going down the hill on some sort of ski-like product, it remains.
Steve, I am not a skier.
It's actually one of my big regrets.
Are you a skier?
No, a little bit.
But yeah, people fall and hurt themselves.
Sounds like not a regret.
Jason Moser, what are you looking at?
Well, I'm dedicating this week's radar stock to Matt Greer.
So we're going with Teladoc Health, ticker is TDOC.
It was a good quarter they reported. No real surprises. That's the beauty of this model. It's very predictable.
U.S. paid members now stand at 26.7 million, visit fee members of 10.2 million. This was the first quarter that they actually broke through 1 million visits for the quarter.
So clearly, people are using the service, and that's great. Management reiterated that the company will be cash flow positive for 2019.
And there was also an interesting conversation on the call regarding United Health.
Teledoc does supply services to United Health and some of their partners,
and there will be an announcement coming out soon from United Health
on an expansion of that partnership.
So that could be something where maybe the guidance they're giving is a little bit conservative.
I don't know, but it does seem like this company is doing all the right things.
Steve, question about Teledoc Health?
So I'm a shareholder as well, and this company is not doing well in my portfolio,
and I think it's not doing well in a lot of others.
What am I missing here?
Well, when did you buy it, Steve?
Because I have it.
It's doing really well for my money.
Oh, I can't even remember.
Yeah, I mean, it is a volatile stock. It did run up high, I think, earlier in 2018,
and right now the price is a little bit back down to reality.
But, Steve, do you like movies about gladiators?
Sure do, Jason.
Andy Cross, what are you looking at?
Q2 Holdings reports next week, their first quarter sales.
They're coming off a really good fourth quarter.
This is a business that provides small and medium-sized banks with banking software.
helps those clients provide banking software, security software, user interface software for their customers.
And coming off a really nice quarter of 30% revenue growth, guided for a little bit less this quarter, 27 to 28.
I really want to understand and get more insights from Matt Flake, who I've interviewed and talked to about the ability to go up the chain and add larger and larger clients to their platform.
Steve, question about Q2 holdings?
This feels like a commodity business. What makes them stand out from the company?
competition? Well, it's a competitive business, Steve, obviously with lots of players in there,
but they have very high revenue retention rates north of 115, 120%. So the ability to continue to
provide those services that really match up with that smaller client base is the real strength.
Do you have a question for Steve? Steve, which bank do you use? PNC. PNC. Yeah, not a very large bank,
not the kind of bank that Q2 goes after. Q2 Holdings, Vail Resorts. Or would you like to double down on
teledoc health, Steve. I think
that Q2 holding sounds pretty
interesting. All right. Ron
Gross, Jason Moser, Andy Cross, guys,
thanks for being here for earnings. Thanks, Chris.
Maybe we'll do this again in another
quarter. Maybe a year. Give me a year
to prepare. Or based on Ron's reaction
when I told him, hey, we're going to tape the entire
show. Maybe we'll not. We'll sub
someone in. You can always drop us an email.
Radio at fool.com
is our email address.
And if you're looking to pick up a little bit of
fool swag to
show off the fact that you actually are one of the dozens of listeners. You can go to shop.
fool.com. That's shop.fool.com. Get a hoodie. Get a ball cap. Get a coffee mug. Because
coffee is the most amazing beverage in the world. That's going to do it for this week's edition
of Motley Fool Money. Our engineer is Steve Broido. Our producer is Matt Greer. I'm Chris Hill.
Thanks for listening. We'll see you next week.
