Motley Fool Money - ESPN Isn't Going Anywhere

Episode Date: September 12, 2022

Disney promoted upcoming movies and Disney+ programming at the D23 Expo, but CEO Bob Chapek's comments about ESPN caught Wall Street's attention. (0:21) Jason Moser discusses: - Why Disney spinning off ESPN wouldn't be the same as eBay spinning off PayPal - Live sports driving ad rates (and audience figures) higher - Major retailers continuing to invest, despite recent challenges (17:08) Marc Rapport talks with Joseph Ori, executive managing director at Paramount Capital Corporation, about commercial real estate trends and the red-hot industrial market. Stocks mentioned: DIS, DKNG, EBAY, PYPL, WMT, TGT, AMZN, DRI, HD, PLD, DRE Host: Chris Hill Guests: Jason Moser, Marc Rapport, Joseph Ori Engineers: Dan Boyd, Spencer Daniel Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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I'm Chris Hill, joining me in studio. Motley Fool senior analyst, Jason Moser. It's good to be back in the studio. It's always good to be back in the studio. A little chilly, a little chilly, but it's going to be back. We're going to have to have some sweatshirts just on hold. The listeners don't care about whether or not we're comfortable. Before we get to the retail, let's get to Disney's big event over the weekend.

They had the D-23 Expo, and overwhelmingly, it was focused on new movies, new programming, coming to Disney Plus, but CEO Bob Chappek was on hand and talking to the media. And by way of background, Dan Loeb, who we've talked about every once in a while on this show, activist investor from the firm, Third Point, Loeb has been publicly pushing for Disney to spin-off ESPN. And in at least one and possibly more than one interviews, Chepec just was asked about that and just shot it down point blank. And you and I were talking right before we started recording. The surprising thing to me is that Dan Loeb completely reversed course.

And let me just read this thing. He tweeted out. We have a better understanding of ESPN's potential as a standalone business and another vertical for Disney to reach a global audience to generate ad and subscribers. revenues. We look forward to seeing Mr. Petaro, Jimmy Pottaro, the president of VSPN. We look forward to seeing Mr. Pertaro execute on the growth and innovation plans generating considerable synergies as part of the Walt Disney company. Ah, synergies. Were you also surprised at Loeb? Part of me wonders, did they have a private

conversation? Was this just in response to Chepeg? Because, by the way, when you look at what's happening with live sports being the last thing to actually generate meaningful ratings for television networks, both broadcast and cable. The reports we're getting on the next Super Bowl, already being almost completely sold out, I'm on Chepex side in terms of, no, we're keeping ESPN because we believe in the future. Well, yeah, I think that when we talk about Disney today, more so today than really probably ever before, I mean, this is a true entertainment company, right? I mean, reaching every corner of the entertainment industry, whether it's the parks, you

know, the on-site, or ultimately what you find in video form, whether it's in the theaters or on one of their direct-to-consumer offerings. So we've talked about this for years in regard to Netflix, in sort of this move towards streaming away from the bundle and a little bit more to the A la carte offerings. Reed Hastings had the foresight years back to really recognize the value in exclusive content. I don't think that's something you can really emphasize enough. I mean, exclusive content really does make a big difference, particularly now in this landscape where there are so many streaming apps, so many different services now.

It is getting to be a little bit frustrating from the consumer's perspective, because you're telling me, instead of having this convenient bundle that I used to have, now I've got to have this whole collection of like 6, 7, 8 different streaming services to be able to watch all of the stuff that I want to watch. And so I think that when you consider the exclusive nature of sports, I absolutely understand why Chepec would want to hang on to ESPN. It feels like maybe it gets batted around a little bit from critics as far as how the business has performed lately. But the bottom line is there's a ton of brand equity still in ESPN, and they do something that not a lot of other properties do, right?

I mean, they really do have that brand equity in sports that gives them a lot of opportunity to grow here in the near future. And so for me, I mean, I think it makes absolute sense ultimately hang on to it, because it gives them access to that exclusive content. And ultimately, exclusive content is going to garner the eyeballs, which is what advertisers want, And you see Disney being able to capitalize on not only the subscription fees, but really more so the advertising. And when you consider the other properties Disney has, whether it's Hulu or Disney Plus,

you see all of this coming together. It's a very complimentary offering. I mean, I have no doubt that ESPN could succeed on its own, but I think it can do better as a part of a bigger family. times when maybe ESPN runs into some challenges, that gives Disney the luxury of sort of emphasizing the parts of the business that are working better so that maybe people aren't so laser-focused just on that one thing. And we have years of data now just looking at, well, when it comes to broadcasting

cable television, what are the most watched shows? Overwhelmingly, it's pros. Put aside the Super Bowl, because that's a single event. So, Fox has the Super Bowl next year. Reportedly, it is almost completely sold out, and a 30-second ad is going to cost more than $7 million. But putting that aside, you look at things like Sunday night football, routinely being at or near the top of the most watch things.

And yeah, the other part of this that never really made a ton of sense was the comparison that Dan Loeb was using was eBay spinning off PayPal. which, I agree with your point. ESPN, I believe, succeeds over the next 10, 20 years, whether it is part of the Disney Empire or not. But the eBay spinoff of PayPal, that was something years before that happened. We were all clamoring for that. That all just seemed like, yes, there is true value to be unlocked there. Yeah, it felt like you look at that comparison.

I mean, we were all happy to see PayPal spend off from eBay, because eBay seems to be, at the time and even still today, a somewhat challenged business, whereas I would not classify Disney or ESPN necessarily as challenged businesses. Maybe going through a little bit of a challenging time, as our viewing habits are making this big transition. We're going from cable to direct-to-consumer, right? I mean, it's funny. We talked about years ago, the value.

in the bundle that we got from our cable providers. Yeah, you're paying your cable bill every month, and you're getting 700 channels that you don't ever watch, but you're getting the core channels that you do watch. And ultimately, there's value in there because it's an easy interface. It's all in one place. And then we see streaming kind of takeover, and we get back to that collection of all of these different apps. It's not the greatest user experience. So now we're kind of moving back to this bundle, so to speak. And I think that where Disney is concerned, I mean, they're just, you know, they're just, you know, want to make this bundle as valuable as possible.

Because I think a lot of this really does boil down to just bundling this content in offering consumers a value proposition and a place to be able to go see anything they want, whatever they want. I think that's one of the big questions that probably a lot of folks have. I know I have it today. I mean, as a subscriber to the Hulu Live product, we also have Disney Plus, which means we also have EFCN Plus because we have that bundle. Right now, you do have that experience where I've got to log into Hulu, or I've got a

log into ESPN Plus, or I've got to log into Disney Plus, there's going to be a time where they're going to have that consolidation. They're going to bring everything under one roof. Now, what that ultimately looks like, whether it's under the Disney Plus roof or whether it's under the Hulu roof, we don't really know that yet. But they definitely have that plan. And then, you know, I think another thing to keep in mind, too, is in regard to sports, I mean, we're talking more and more about it now, but sports betting is becoming a bigger part of this equation. becoming a greater consideration, because there's a tremendous market opportunity out there to do that. And that's something that is being discussed more and more on the calls. And they're

not giving away their hand yet. I mean, we don't know exactly what they're going to do. But when you look at the market opportunity, I mean, wagering on sports came in. It was an $89 billion business in 2021. It's estimated to hit $144 billion by the year of 2026. Now, I'm not saying that Disney or ESPN has to be the leader in sports betting, and chances are they will probably choose to take the partnership path on this particular part of the journey. But that's going to be something else they can incorporate into their business. Because of the exposure to sports, because they have so much under that roof, under that ESPN roof, that I think is going to be another valuable part of the equation that maybe that would be a lot of the equation that maybe that

That was part of why Loeb changed his mind so quickly on this, is that he saw Chepex's commitment to ESPN and heard more in his sort of tone that, hey, listen, we're not taking this for granted. We've got big plans. But right now, we're in this big transition. We're moving over from this cable relationship, that legacy relationship that we've built this business around for so long. We're kind of having to blow that up and re-approach this. So we're taking this just one step at a time.

But trust me, we'll get there. And maybe that was enough to sway Loeb into believing. that, yes, it makes more sense to remain a part of the Disney family, because I think most people would agree it should. How many Draft King's ads did you see over the week? Watching college football and the NFL? Quite a few. Quite a few.

Let's move on to retail, because like a lot of industries, retail stocks have gotten hit in 2022, and yet we're getting more data coming out about Walmart, Amazon, Target, just to name three, continuing to spend money, continuing to invest. You look at the research, Gartner research had come out, sort of looking at the past as an example of how this can pay off in the future, and they looked at all these companies that continue to invest through the Great Recession, and what that did for their earnings potential over the subsequent five, six years. And it's one of those things that reading all that made me think, oh, if you're a shareholder

of Amazon, Target, Walmart, yeah, you should probably be happy about the investments that they're making, because they are making huge investments. They are. And the beauty of having the scale and retail, the companies like that have your Amazon's and Walmarts in the world is they can afford to continue investing. I mean, that's what that scale gives them, those financial resources. They can continue investing in times like these when other smaller players, they have to play a little bit more defense.

They have to be far more careful with where their investment dollars go. We talk about that a lot. I think in tough times, that's when the strong tend to get stronger. This made me think back toward, and I don't know if you recall, but I think over the past couple of years, we talked a little bit about Darden restaurants throughout all of this, right? And Darden, I mean, obviously, over the last couple of years, restaurants have had a very difficult time. We saw a lot of smaller restaurants go under, but the bigger restaurants that have multiple

brands under that umbrella have been able to play offense. And Darden was a good example of that. They really were playing offense, opening new stores, trying to take share. Understanding that was going to hamper the financial performance in the near term, but that it was going to give them a greater footprint in the longer term. And ultimately, it gets back to that scale argument. You want to be bigger. Sometimes you've got to take a little bit of a risk there and spend when the times are tough.

It seems like with companies like Amazon and Walmart, Home Depot, Target, they're all doing that, and it makes a lot of sense. I think ultimately the investments that they make just depend on the nature of the business. I thought there was some interesting data in there in consulting executives, company executives, in asking what investments will they cut first versus what investments will they cut last? And I was encouraged to see this in the sense that the last that they're going to cut, right? This is what they're going to focus on first and foremost. They're going to cut technology and investments in the workforce last.

In other words, that's where they're going to be really focused on, making sure they're up to speed on their technology, and making sure that they're actually investing in their workforce. And we're hearing a lot of stories these days about unionization, right? And a lot of that just boils down to companies who have not maybe invested in their workforce the way that they should have. I'm not saying that Amazon and Walmart necessarily have that figured out either, but that's something that's encouraging to see at least that executives are going to be focused on investing in things like technology and the workforce, whereas the

investments they'll cut first are things like M&A, right? Mergers and acquisitions. And I wasn't terribly surprised to see this, but also sustainability and environmental impact. I think that the sustainability and environmental impact, as important as that is, I think that's still a very squishy subject, right? It's very open for interpretation exactly what that means. So maybe as time goes on, if that becomes a little bit more of an understandable, concrete definition, maybe that changes. But for now, I mean, I do believe that the investments in technology and the workforce make the most sense. And again, I mean, it goes back to when you have the scale in the space, it really gives you a lot of opportunity to, when

you come out of these difficult times, the strong can be stronger as long as they make the right investments. Well, and part of that in terms of the workplace, you look at Target, which is on track to invest $5 billion this year in their stores, opening 30 new ones, but giving a refresh to 200 more, which is, you think about their footprint. That's a sizable impact. And a nice reminder that increasing the store count is not the only. only way to invest in locations. When you look at a business and they say, you know, it's

like, okay, well, in the grand scheme of target, 30 new locations isn't necessarily a huge increase, but the upgrade of 200 more can make a meaningful impact. And again, all of this with an eye towards, kind of like we talked about on the show with Emily on Friday, all with an eye towards, hey, we've got to get through the next six, 12 months, and this is setting us up for beyond that. And the E word, right? What we talked about last week, efficiency. A lot of these companies are focused on efficiency right now. And I think in retail, particularly, efficiency matters a lot. And when you look at the way these companies are spending their investing dollars,

I think a lot of this also depends on the nature of the business. And so you look at something like a Target or a Walmart. And investing in that in-store experience, right? Just like you said, It's not just about opening new stores, but it's about making your existing stores better, getting them up to snuff and up to speed with today's technology. You look at something like a Target in a Walmart, it makes sense to really invest in those stores, whereas Home Depot has been focused more so on investing in their supply chain, really trying to maximize the efficiencies there, because part of the difference between something like Walmart and Home Depot, you look at the customers that Home Depot serves.

It's not just the do-it-yourselfer, but they have an entire pro-demographic that they have to cater to, right? And that pro-demographic is really important because they spend a lot of money with Home Depot. And so it's not necessarily about the in-store experience for them. It's about the supply chain. And so we've seen Home Depot making a lot of investments in the supply chain over the last couple of years as opposed to that in-store experience just because of the difference in the nature of the customer. So just something to keep in mind. Jason Moser.

Thanks for being here. Thank you. All right. From consumer retail, we move to commercial real estate. Joseph Ory is an executive managing director at Paramount Capital Corporation. Motley Fool contributor Mark Rappore caught up with ORI to get his thoughts on commercial real estate trends and the red hot industrial market. Industrial sector has been really one of our hottest since the pandemic.

How hot has it been from your perspective? You have numbers you could point out to indicate that, record low vacancy rates. soaring rents, all of the above. Yes, it's the industrial market in the U.S. has been booming for the last four or five years. The cap rates, that's the return you look at when you buy a property, are at record lows between three and five percent. They should be between five and seven percent. Again, there's 16 billion square feet. Right now, there's 700 million square feet under construction. That is a record, and it's all getting absorbed. Absorbing, it's getting lease as soon as it's built or a few months thereafter. We have record rents in various markets,

3% vacancy. So yes, it's on fire. It's slowed down a little bit now with higher interest rates. And remember, when the Fed raises interest rates, it cuts back demand. So people and higher inflation, food costs, gas costs, et cetera, people are cutting back and they're not buying stuff. and a lot of the demand for industrial comes from all the stuff people are buying primarily coming over from Asia and then they need a place to store it and distribute it and the logistics for it and that was the big creator of demand but it's starting to slow down well what involvement do you and your clients have in this sector and where in general terms of course but what we do is we provide advisory services we tell our clients and my clients are primarily institutional large real estate

developers, private real estate firms, money managers, investment managers, REIT managers, and we tell them how to make more money in commercial real estate. And since the industrial market's been so hot the last few years, we've done a lot of stuff on industrial. Well, do you think valuations have gone too high and why or why not and where and, you know, what is a bubble and are we in one? Yeah, definitely. I mentioned cap rates for most of your bureaus, you probably don't know what a cap rate is, but it's a measure of return on a real estate, commercial real estate deal. And the way you calculate it, you take the net operating income that your rents, less your operating expenses divided by the value of the property.

And cap rates today for industrial are between three and five percent. You know, I've been doing this for 40 years, Mark. I'd never, if you were to ask me 10 years ago, hey, industrial is going to trade at a three cap rate in 10 years. I would have bet you a million dollars, no way. But that's what's happened, and a lot of it has been the Federal Reserve since 2008. We've had zero short-term interest rates other than the short-term blip higher in 2018 and then the last six months when they've been raising it. So yes, they're compressed. I'll give you another good example. Prologis is the largest industrial reed. They're buying a competitor, Duke Realty, for a huge price. That's a three-and-a-quarter cap rate acquisition. Five or six years ago, cap rates on

industrial were average six, seven percent. Now they're between three and four and five percent. So, yeah, we're in a little mini bubble, but as demand starts to pull back, and rates go higher because it's capital's cost more now. Cap rates will rise and we'll start to see the market get back to some normalcy. It's not going to be where it was five or six years ago, but it won't be so robust as it is today. You know, that's sort of what we're hearing about the you know, the retail and especially the, you know, residential markets, too, including multifamily, is that rather than a bubble, maybe we're just going to see kind of a general cooling off? Can you share your observations about those sectors? Of course, retail has been

pretty hard hit by the pandemic. But what about those sectors? Yeah, apartments are the second hottest sector. I have been the last four or five years after industrial rents have taken off in a bunch of markets, but that's also starting to soften. I see it here. You know, we're out in Silicon Valley. I see it here. So, yes, a single family, when I'm hearing right now, it's hit a brick wall with these rate rises. A year ago, you could finance a 30-year mortgage at three and a quarter. Today, you're at five and a quarter, and that's if you have a great FICO score. You're probably going to be a five and a half. And I'm seeing a hearing that prices are being cut, buyers are backing out. So a lot of what happens in housing is going to depend on what the Fed does in the next two meetings.

They have a meeting in September and then another one in November. Well, back to industrial then. What markets do you see as being perhaps particularly overpriced or underpriced? You know, what building types, for instance, you know, large warehouses versus small, last mile kind of infill facilities? Can you shed some light on those there? Sure. Here's the hottest markets, the highest rents in industrial. The inland empire, remember 40% of our goods comes from Asia, primarily China.

They come to California and Oakland and then Long Beach, those three ports, primarily Long Beach in L.A. And once it gets off the ship, and we've had some supply issues in our supply line, and that's got a little better. But six months ago, there were 70, 80, 90 ships outside of the L. LA ports. I just counted them this morning. There's 50. So we're getting better, but it's not the best. So here's the markets with the most building, most robust, highest rents, the inland empire, okay, in Southern California, LA, Boise, Oakland, and Orange County. All those, these locations have industrial rents that are in the double digits. Typically in the good old days, and when I say the good old

days. I'm talking about six, five or six years ago, industrial rents worth six, seven bucks. Okay, now these are triple net rents. Now they're, uh, inland empire 16, uh, LAs 14, Boise's 11, Boise, $11 a square foot. Oakland, 12, Orange County, $17 a square foot. You know, that's amazing. And by the way, that when you mentioned Boise, that's like, which one of these is not like the rest? Yeah. Why Boise when you've got all these West Coast? Yeah, well, you know, they want to get out of California because of the higher costs and taxes and stuff like that. So that I can see. But then, you know, you would think, what about Vegas? What about Arizona? But their rents aren't as high. Well, Boise's, you know, been one of the hottest residential markets, certainly in the last few years.

Yeah, definitely. And that's cool down too, I'm hearing. And when you talk about 1617, you're talking about per square foot rental. Is that right? Square foot rental rates, yes. Right. And right. And just, you know, To clarify, let's tell our listeners what you mean by net net lease. A net lease is an industrial. If I say the rent is $16 a square foot, that triple net. So the tenant will pay that every year, okay? Plus, they will pay all the operating expenses on the property, real estate taxes, maintenance, insurance, landscaping, et cetera.

And that's what a triple net lease is. Right. And the opposite, of course, would be a gross lease. Exactly. Right. Right. And when you say 16% or something like that, you're talking about the rent increase per square foot in a renewed lease.

Is that correct? Or in a new lease versus the previous tenant? Yeah, well, $16 is the rent per square foot. But that rent has doubled in the last five years. Oh, got it. Okay. And almost all these markets I mentioned, it's doubled. You know, what about the underlying demand for these spaces? You know, we've heard, of course,

the headlines about Amazon not needing this space perhaps going forward that it has. And, you know, are they a real bellwether in this? Or how do you see that this demand changing and fluctuating? They definitely are bellwether. They're probably the largest outside of some of the REITs, single owner of industrial in the country. And I think that when Bezos was a CEO, he sort of got, they over-expanded a little bit with their real estate. The new CEO came in, what, like eight months ago, and I think he's tightening things up. But demand is slowing. When the Fed raises interest rates, and you have high inflation, it hurts demand, okay, because people don't have enough money to pay for their groceries and gas and everything else, so they cut back buying stuff. And remember,

we don't make anything here anymore. We need to. We have to buy everything from overseas, but that demand is starting to slow down. It's not dropping off a cliff yet. It's going to depend on how high interest rates go, but it's definitely slowing down. Well, in your work, do you have like a pretty good view of, you know, who the clients are renting these spaces?

Because, I mean, you know, it's like we assume when we're talking about industrial space and warehouses, we're all talking about nothing but logistics warehouse, but some of this is a lot of this is manufacturing space too, isn't it? Some of it is. When you look at that $16 billion of industrial, maybe 10% is manufacturing. The other 90 is distribution and warehouse. And who are the tenants for these?

Any big company, from Procter & Gamble, down to Skechers, down to Amazon, any company who's selling or distributing a product has a network of distribution warehouses around a country. Retail, you look at any retook, look at Coles, look at Macy's. They'll have 10, 12 distribution centers. And these are huge buildings. There are 700, a million, a million two square feet. You know, that's like five football fields.

They distribute all their goods around the country. So it's a very important part of our logistics and supply chain in the country, and we definitely need it. And like I say, we're building 700,000, 700 million square feet, thousand, million new space and it's all going to get absorbed, even though they're really. rents are starting, and the demand is starting to slow down a little bit. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

Set on buyer sell stocks based solely on what you hear. I'm Chris Hill. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.