Motley Fool Money - Helicopters Are Out, eVTOLs Are In?

Episode Date: December 3, 2025

We discuss the latest shopping data after Black Friday and then dive into the eVTOL industry. What are they? Who do you need to know? And how will these companies make money? Travis Hoium, Lou Whiteman, and Rachel Warren discuss: - Retail sales - What is an eVTOL? - How eVTOLs plan to make money - Our favorite eVTOL stocks Companies discussed: Joby Aviation (JOBY), Archer Aviation (ACHR), Eve Holding (EVEX), Beta Technologies (BETA). Host: Travis Hoium Guests: Lou Whiteman, Rachel Warren Engineer: Dan Boyd Disclosure: Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, “TMF”) do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement. We’re committed to transparency: All personal opinions in advertisements from Fools are their own. The product advertised in this episode was loaned to TMF and was returned after a test period or the product advertised in this episode was purchased by TMF. Advertiser has paid for the sponsorship of this episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Are small aircraft about to take on Uber? Motley Full Money starts now. Welcome to Motley Full Money. I'm Travis Hoym, joined by Lou Whiteman and Rachel Warren. We're going to talk about EV Toll, electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft today. But first, we want to get an update on the retail segment, Black Friday, which felt like Black Friday month to me, is now behind us officially. We've even had Cyber Monday. So, Rachel, what did we learn about this critical shot?

shopping season. Yeah, I think there were a lot of analysts that were watching what these numbers would tell us about the health of the consumer. And, you know, the headline numbers look good, but there's more when you dig beneath the surface. So to start off, U.S. consumers spent a record $11.8 billion online on Black Friday. That was a 9.1% increase from 2024. But what's interesting is that nearly four in 10 consumers bought fewer items this year.

This suggests, obviously, that they're trimming their shopping lists, prioritizing certain purchases. Now, globally for Black Friday, which is not just a U.S. phenomenon anymore, online sales hit a new peak of $79 billion. What's interesting is that store visits were really a mixed bag. There was some data that showed there was a slight decline in foot traffic. Consumers are taking a bit more of an intentional approach when they're shopping. Really important to note as well, total spending increased year over year. But at the same time, average selling prices for products were up by around 7%. and the number of units per transaction dropped.

So what this indicates is that a lot of the sales growth that we saw on Black Friday was driven by inflation rather than increased purchase volume. And another thing as well that I think speaks to the health of the consumer. Usage of Buy Now Pay Later Services was up about 9% year over year on Black Friday. So we're seeing a time where consumers are looking for more flexible payment options to manage their budgets as wallets are constrained. They seem to be more price sensitive, less impulsive, We saw a lot of use of digital tools and AI to compare prices and find the best value for shoppers.

So overall, good numbers, but I think we are seeing a consumer that is spending much more cautiously than in past periods. Lou, I keep looking for signs that the consumer in the economy are getting weaker because I think, you know, we get these data points like unemployment is kind of starting to be a problem. Inflation should be something that impacts the economy you would think negatively, at least in certain places. But then you get numbers like this. And kind of the headline numbers are pretty solid.

Is that the real story is the inflation piece that Rachel talked about? Is that actually the bigger takeaway here that's kind of masking any sort of weakness that we normally see? I don't think the weakness is masked. I think Rachel did a good job kind of outlining kind of what is going on behind these numbers. Top line is great. And yeah, it was great. $44 billion in sales from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday. That's great numbers.

But it's the volume. It is, you know, it is how much people are buying. Another thing to put on Adobe that tracks all of this, they found an uptick and kind of discounted consumer staples that Amazon was putting toilet paper on sale, too, and people were buying that. So it's not necessarily that, you know, gifts and holiday spending is driving this. It's also worth noting U.S. spending grew at just half the pace of global spending. As Rachel said, this is a global phenomenon now.

But U.S. spending was up like 2.6%. Globally, it was 5.3%. Travis, we've talked about it before, but this all still looks like, whether it's the K-shaped recovery, K-shaped economy, there are haves and have-nots, and there is a critical mass of consumers that have the means to spend and they are spending. But that sort of does mask or kind of distract us from the fact that there is pressure on a lot of have-nots, a lot of consumers that are really struggling right now and that if that number grows, that's really, really bad news. This one is things, two things can be true at once. There can both be

robust spending and a lot of people who are feeling the pinch. And I think that's what's going on here. Lou, how is the data changed? Because one of the things, we're looking at year over year numbers to look for signs of health or weakness in the economy. But the shopping patterns, we talked to last week on the show about my first email that I got about Black Friday came on October 31st. That's almost a month in advance. We're recording this on December 3rd. I'm already feeling like if I'm not done shopping now, three weeks before Christmas, that I'm behind the eight ball. I don't think I felt like that 10 or 15 years ago. Maybe that's me getting older. But is that a piece of this that we've sort of shifted all of these holidays forward?

If you go to a Target or a Walmart, you know, there seem to be setting Christmas and Halloween and all these things earlier and earlier every year. Does that mask or make the data a little bit harder to read or am I just reading into things here? I think you definitely have to factor it in. I don't think I would say you have to be done by now, but certainly a one day event or a few day event has turned into a season, right? You know, I think it goes to December 24th or so. So is the problem like you can't miss the season? I guess maybe that's just the feeling that I get is if I, if I miss this discount season, I'm going to be in full price season by the 10th of December. So Travis Glass-half full there, though, is that if you believe that, I mean, I'm sort of, there were things that I was on the fence about buying,

I'm kind of curious what discounts might come in the next few weeks. So, you know, I mean, maybe it's a reason not to. To me, and look, just to pick on one company, but American Eagle Outfitters, which is not one that I look at a lot, I found it really interesting. They had their comp sales forecast for the fourth quarter as up 8 to 9 percent and gross margin down year over year. That, to me, I think, sums up what we're seeing now as both the pressure and the opportunity. I think we're going to see that a lot.

And, you know, as investors, I think we can weather this. I still think it's worse for Main Street than it is for Wall Street right now. But as far as warning signs are being pleased about what we're seeing, definitely I see reason to worry. Rachel, if you have to have one takeaway from Black Friday season, what is it? I think what we're looking at right now is a time where consumers are really prioritizing the purchases they make. you know, Lou talked about the fact that some of the sales that consumers were taking advantage of important non-discretionary items. I think that's something we might continue to see. You know, the flip side is, as you were talking about, this prolonged Black Friday shopping

season that goes just beyond, you know, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, that does give retailers with robust business models an opportunity to capitalize on a longer sales runway. So I think it remains to be seen, whether that's something that's going to be advantageous in this period of time where consumers are more cautious than ever. Definitely something we'll be tracking over the next couple of months because it seems like we need to get almost the full quarter worth of data to really know what the full story is. When we come back, we're going to talk about the developments in EV tolls.

You're listening to Motley Fool Money. The old adage goes, it isn't what you say, it's how you say it, because to truly make an impact, you need to set an example and take the lead. You have to adapt to whatever comes your way. When you're that driven, you drive an equally determined vehicle, the Range Rover Sport. The Range Rover Sport blends power, poise, and performance. Its design is distinctly British and free from unnecessary details, allowing its raw agility to shine through. It combines a dynamic sporting personality with elegance to deliver a truly instinctive drive. Inside, you'll find true

modern luxury with the latest innovations in comfort. Use the cabin air purification system alongside active noise cancellation for all new levels of quality and quiet. Whether you prefer a choice of powerful engines or the plug-in hybrid with an estimated range of 53 miles, there's an option for you. With seven terrain modes to choose from, terrain response to fine-tuned your vehicle for the roads ahead. The Range Rover event is on now. Explore enhance offers at Rangerover.com. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Let's take into a new market that's gotten a lot of attention this year, but it's still pre-revenue. That's EV tolls. Lou, first of all, what is an EV toll? Kind of give me the baseline of what in the world this is and why we should care. So this, this is. So this is,

This is the flying cars, we were promised, Travis, but it's not nearly what we thought when we drew it up as kids. I'm not going to pull these out of my driveway and just take off. No time soon, no. So it is short for electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft. They look like small airplanes with wings for stability, and that's really important, but they can do vertical takeoffs and landings like a helicopter. A lot of them have the propellers on their wings that are shiftable.

This technology has been around a long time in the military space, and they are kind of coming now to the more commercial space. This has been hot. There were just quickly counting in the US and Western Europe alone, there were at least a half dozen companies that went public, all via SPACs, pursuing this goal in the last five years or so. There are Chinese competitors. They are Boeing and Embrier and some of the big aerospace companies have been involved. There's already been some failures, too. But the leaders are getting near FAA. approval, should be flying next year. I have a lot of questions. I have a lot of excitement, but this is real and this is coming, and we're going to see these in the air before we know it.

We've moved, it seems, past the phase of these kind of trade show demonstrations closer to you, brought up the FAA. I want to get a feel for where we are in that development cycle because it does seem like 2025, we're not turning that corner quite yet to you and I maybe being able to get into one of these, but that's not far away. So where are we on the, from prototype to actual commercial operations, where are we on that curve? So that depends on the company, but the two leaders in the space, and Joby and Archer would be the two I'd look at, they are both on track to win approval in 2026, maybe early 2026. Elsewhere in the world, they've actually flown passengers. So, you know, it's not just a U.S. story. Others are looking at the end of the decade. So there's a

broad spectrum here, but yeah, we are going to see these in the air in the United States, I think, by next summer. You maybe answered some of this, but I did want to know who the players are that as investors, we should keep an eye on, and maybe what sort of factors we should be looking at? Is it their capacities? Is it their partnerships? Is it their balance sheet? What are the things that are kind of risk factors or opportunities if you're digging into these stocks? So I think partnerships are really important. Jobie and Archer, the two I mentioned, and they are going to get there first. I don't think it matters who gets there first.

I think the fact that they're both going to get there. But look at the partners. Joby is working with Toyota on manufacturing. Toyota's pretty good at manufacturing. Delta Airlines is going to be a partner of theirs. Uber, they kind of acquired or swallowed Uber's fledgling, I would say, hopes to do a helicopter service or an air service. And so they're a partner there.

Archer's working with Stalantis. They're working with United Airlines in Southwest. They both have military contracts. They both have international presence. They are the two that are way out in front. Some of these other companies are trying. They have some partners, too, and I don't want to be dismissive to them. But I do think there were questions about the addressable market, and I do think there's

a lot of hype here, too. And so the two that arrive in 2026, I think, are going to have a natural advantage over those that are coming years later. Is this going to be the kind of business, and it seems like aircraft do this, where there's kind of two, maybe three players that are able to survive. So it's like if you're not in those two, it's going to be really, really tough to catch up. Or is this the kind of business that's small enough and a big enough addressable market that maybe if you're a couple years behind, it's fine?

Or am I overthinking that risk? I don't think it's a duopoly. I think the big difference is that when you're selling a couple hundred million dollar jet, your customers are limited. And so therefore the suppliers are limited. these are smaller and more affordable, more opportunities. I think the way to think about these is kind of everything you would do with a helicopter if a helicopter was safer.

Because to be honest, we know, I mean, helicopters just have stability problems. You can't fly them in weather. There's been a lot of high-profile crash over the year. The wings on this kind of give you all the benefit of a helicopter plus the stability to do more. That is a big market. But, you know, we don't sell that many helicopters. So I think there are limits to this market. That is going to limit the number of players.

But no, I don't think it's going to be a duopoly-like with the big commercial jets. I think there are more opportunities. Rachel, we did get some news this week that drove Beta's stock higher. What do we need to know about beta and Eve Air Mobility? Yeah, there's been a lot of interesting kind of deal-making in the Eftall space. And this particular deal involves two companies, beta technologies and Eve Air Mobility. So Beta, they're a Vermont-based company. They're known for developing and manufacturing all electric aircraft.

That includes vertical takeoff and landing and conventional fixed wing models. Now, Eve Air Mobility was officially launched as a spinoff from the Brazilian company, Embraer in 2020, building on Embraer's aviation expertise. They became public through a SPAC merger a few years ago. Embraeer still retains a majority stake. That's a little bit of a background on those two companies. So stocks of both Beta and Eve rose significantly after this deal was announced. Beda is going to be supplying up to $1 billion worth of electric pusher motors to Eve Air Mobility.

over the next 10 years. That provides beta with a pretty significant new revenue stream. It makes Eve its biggest customer. And it also really secures crucial propulsion system technology for Eve's backlog of almost 3,000 Ftall aircraft. And I think it also highlights the growing consolidation that we're seeing in this space. There's a lot of players here, like Lou mentioned, both domestically as well outside of the U.S. And that creates a lot of opportunity. But I do think we're going to continue to see this element of consolidation. EVE for its part, they do take a more holistic approach to urban air mobility. You know, they're looking to sell their Eftal aircraft. They also are building out this global support network and what they call their urban air traffic management

software that they want to sell. So a lot of interesting things happening there. And of course, they leverage the expertise of their former parent company and majority stakeholder Embraer to develop, produce, and service their aircraft. So pretty interesting business to watch. This certainly a great development for them. A lot of news, but one of the things that we haven't talked a little bit about yet is how are these companies actually going to make money and when are they going to, when are they going to start bringing that cash in? We'll get to that next.

You're listening to Motley Fool Money. These days, I'm all about quality over quantity, especially in my closet. If it's not well made and versatile, it's just not worth it. That's honestly why I love Quince. The fabrics feel elevated, the cuts are thoughtful, and the pricing actually makes sense. Quince makes high-quality wardrobe staples using premium fabric. like 100% European linen, silk and organic cotton poplin. They work directly with safe ethical factories and cut out the middlemen,

so you aren't paying for brand markups or fancy stores, just quality clothing. Everything they make is built to hold up season after season and is consistently rated 4.5 to 5 stars by thousands of real people like me who wear their clothes every day. The Quince, Mongolian cashmere crewneck sweater may be the most comfortable one that I own. It's light, soft, and it was a lot more affordable than you think quality cashmere would be. to build the wardrobe you actually want. Right now, go to quince.com slash motley

for free shipping and 365 day returns. That's a full year to wear it and love it. And you will. Now available in Canada, too. Don't keep settling for clothes that don't last. Go to QINCE.com slash motley for free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince.com slash motley.

Welcome back to Motley full money. Before the break, we talked about the Evita The Evita landscape and some of the players that are starting to fly themselves. I want to know about the business model Loo. This is one of those topics that ultimately becomes really important because are they going to be selling aircraft? Are they going to be doing a ride share service? Are you and I going to be buying these EVTOL aircraft?

What is the business model that we see, at least in front of us? Maybe we don't know what this looks like 20 or 30 years from now, but over the next five years, what are these companies going to be developing that are going to actually drive revenue? Yeah. So let's start real quick. I think that's a great question. but let's start with a kind of a warning first, and then we'll talk about the excitement. Right now, these are all pre-revenue, and a lot of the shareholder base and a lot of the excitement

is based on the imagination, is based on the PowerPoint. I think, you know, there's two challenges here. One, solve the science problem, and then two, once you do that, solve the business problem. How do you make money here? I do worry here that when they actually turn into companies that are building airplanes, it's going to be, we're going to see that it costs money to make airplanes. And it might kind of shift out some of the investor base over time, kind of going from the hype momentum investors.

And so I do think there's going to be a lot of volatility here. But looking at the two, it is interesting, but look at Joby and Archer because they are the two leaders. I think there's vaporware out there, guys. But I think, you know, I mean, they are both going to get here. They are very different in how they're set up. Jobi is a vertically integrated manufacturer. I mentioned Toyota.

Toyota is very good at manufacturing. They are, Joby is going to build their aircraft in house. Archer is more asset light. They're working with Stalantis, the parent of Chrysler and Jeep. Stalantus and other partners are going to do a lot of the manufacturing for them. As far as business model, Joby wants to operate its air taxi service. In coordination with partners like Delta, you know, like they are going to be working with others. But Jobie and there would theoretically be like a Joby app that I could go on and I could say, hey, I want to fly from Minneapolis to Chicago? In theory, definitely it would be Joby operating Joby aircraft versus Archer is more of like a traditional aerospace model,

where they want to sell the airplanes to whether it's United, Southwest, or whoever. Joby does have range and speed advantages right now. I mean, they all talk about the future and, you know, different, I guess, electric alternatives, but Jobie's going to get 150 miles right now. Archer only gets 100. Use case, I don't think that's going to matter. As far as how they're going to be used, imagine like Delta or Southwestern United feeding passengers from outer suburbs.

Right now, they are flying a gas-guzzling little jet to get from the outer suburbs of Minneapolis to their international flights. If you can replace those with more efficient, smaller aircraft that are electric, that's a big savings. I think you'll see them replace helicopters in areas like. like EMS, search, rescue. You're not going to see cargo so much because anytime you're talking battery power, you're talking about weight issues.

I do think, you asked, I do think personal flights, Joby is working with Uber. I don't think we're going to have these in our garage, but I do think there's going to be where, I mean, right now, if you have the means, you can go from Manhattan out to the Hamptons in a helicopter. Yeah, Joby acquired Blade recently. And that was Blades business model. At least that's the piece that they bought. And then the idea I think there would be, we sort of have the infrastructure.

We have the helipads or vertiports, as they're calling them. And then we can just plug in our new aircraft and, yeah, fly from Manhattan to the airport or they're doing the same thing. And I forget which one. One of them has a partnership in Abu Dhabi, the other one, Dubai. Right. But that would be sort of the idea there too. And again, we can't emphasize this enough.

I don't want to get, you know, the helicopter lobby coming out as hard. But these helicopters are inherently unsafe. Helicopters exist because they solve problems, but they, I mean, unsafe might be too. But helicopters have a rough history relative to fixed-wing aircraft. If you can have the best of both worlds where that you don't need a runway, you can take off vertically, but you have the stability in flight, that opens a lot of doors. And kind of, that is the market. It's not, you know, in our driveways, flying to the grocery store to get over traffic.

Maybe in time that'll come. But if you think that that way, I think that's the way. I think that's the way you can look at at least the initial opportunity. Rachel, where are you seeing opportunities? One of the names that keeps coming up is Uber. You don't think of Uber as an aircraft company, but it does seem like as some of these technologies, we've talked about autonomous vehicles a number of times on the show,

and Uber and Lyft end up playing a role in that. Is that an interesting place for even for something like EVTools? You don't necessarily have to take a risk on these zero revenue companies. you can just ride the wave of ride-sharing? Is that the right way to think about it? I mean, I think that's possible. And I think also just given the fact that these companies, like the Archers and Jobies, are partnering with so many, you know, solid quality, publicly traded businesses, it gives us as investors a lot of different ways to gain exposure to this space. And I do think it's really fascinating to see all the different models that

companies are exploring, which, you know, Lou outlined really well. You know, you've got this kind of traditional idea where some of these Eftol developers could act as sort of the original equipment manufacturer, right? And they could sell their aircraft to various customers, airlines, charter companies, and so forth. There could be this blended approach where maybe they sell aircraft but retain an ownership stake. Obviously, you've got companies that are looking at operating their own fleet of Eftals as public air taxi services. That's where the Ubers and lifts of the world could come in, you know, similar to how modern helicopter services operate. The big issue here, as Lou noted, as well, I mean, this is a model which is currently

very unprofitable, and companies are trying to figure out how. exactly they're going to generate revenue in a sustainable way. It's very expensive to operate these models. Many of these developers are banking on future profitability. They're hoping that they can, you know, enact aggressive cost reduction as production scales up. And I will say, I think that one of the more profitable areas that we might see for companies is going to be in cargo delivery, government defense contracts, beyond passenger air taxis. As exciting as it is to think of more and more consumers ordering their passenger air taxi to get from point A to point B, I don't necessarily see that being adopted as quickly as some of the more industrial use cases. But I think we're

really very much at the beginning of where this market could go. One final thing I'll note, what's really, really key for adoption here is also having the regulatory guard rails in place. And we've seen some movement where that's concerned, even in the U.S. specifically. So earlier this year, the FAA, they finalized new rules for the first new civil aircraft categories. since the 1940s. This is for powered lift aircraft. And that provides a clear regulatory path for pilot training and certification for FTAL aircraft. They've established an FTAL integration pilot program to accelerate the deployment of these aircrafts. There's a lot of exciting things happening behind the scenes that are going to really lay their groundwork for

this infrastructure to build out over time. As you look at this space, Lou, which stocks are you excited about? My money is with Jelby. As part of a small diversified portfolio, because there's a lot of risk here. But I think Jobi has the best model, and I like the management team a lot. So I still don't know what these are could become. But I think it's interesting. So Jobby's my horse. Rachel, if you have to pick a top stock in EV tolls, what is it?

I'm going to say Archer, just to be contrarian to Loo, but I also really like the business. I really think Uber keeps coming up. So if I get to put one in here, I think Uber just there's these new technologies. They've got to reach customers somehow. and it seems like Uber will play a role. Maybe it's not a huge role. Maybe it's not something that drives, you know, $100 billion in value to them.

But if they end up being that point of demand, that seems to be a good position for that again. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows the Monly Fool's editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content

and provided for informational purposes. only. To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes. For Lou Whiteman, Rachel Warren, Dan Boyd behind the glass, and the entire Mountainly Cool team, I'm Travis Hoyam. Thanks for listening. We'll see you here tomorrow.