Motley Fool Money - Is Zoom Still A Growth Stock?

Episode Date: May 23, 2023

Zoom’s quarter showed that it’s no longer growing at its pre-pandemic levels. Can it move beyond video chat? (0:21) Bill Barker discusses: - Zoom’s growth trajectory - Where Zoom’s revenue might come from next - Are Lowe’s and Home Depot too similar? (14:02) Social Security reform has been back in the news lately. Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp break down the myth-conceptions that surround Social Security. Companies discussed: ZM, MSFT, HD, LOW, DKS, AMZN Host: Deidre Woollard Guests: Bill Barker, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Zoom tries to move beyond video chat, and Lowe's does not hammer home a good quarter. You're listening to Motley Full Money. Welcome to Motley Full Money. I'm Deidra Willard, and I'm joined by Motley Fool analyst Bill Barker. How are you today, Bell? I'm very well. Thanks for asking. Well, yesterday we got earnings from Zoom, and they seemed fairly solid. So revenue is up 3 percent, enterprise revenue, which is even more important, up 13%.

This company has been on such a ride, but does Doom have its most? I thought the earnings were good. The market maybe didn't think so quite as well. Well, when you talk about the growth here and the ride here, it's worth reflecting on just where things have come from. And back in fiscal year 2021, which ended in January, so it was really the calendar year 2020 plus January, it was growing revenue at 325% a year. Followed that up, and that was the main COVID year, of course, and then 54% the next year, 7% essentially last year. This year, we're looking at sort of flat, top-line growth. So it's not really at the moment a growth company, and I think that that is playing in part

to today's market reaction. Yeah, so it's kind of evolving from video chat. But one of the things they talked about in the earnings, it's getting 10% of its revenue from Zoom phone. So that's its cloud-based calling solution. Obviously, it's looking for things beyond video chat, looking at both kind of new areas as well, some old ones here. These are regular phone calls, cloud-based, but still phone calls.

As you said, it's not as much a growth company anymore. So is it just trying to find profits wherever it can and trying to restart that growth? Well, yeah, it's looking around. It's got a lot of competition from some of the biggest players that you can have as competitors, Microsoft Teams, Cisco, WebEx. It's really, you know, surrounded on all sides by the success of its technology being easy enough for major players to duplicate and then integrate into their offerings in a way that really shuts down their further growth, certainly not the explosive growth, that they're. they enjoyed for a while there. So in going into the sort of phone elements and the call center work and things like that, the AI that they're touting, I don't know what exactly gets thrown at call centers by AI. They've got some idea. I mean, it can't be a worse experience than it is

today, can it? I mean, maybe we need some artificial intelligence to upgrade call center experience from the nightmare that it regularly is to something that you don't recognize as a nightmare. I don't know. If artificial intelligence can do that, then it's done more than it's done anywhere else so far. Yeah, that does seem to be the thing. Zoom, they laid off around 15% of the company. They've acquired workivo. They're working with another company to build that AI assistant.

I believe its name is Claude. With AI right now, every company seems. seems to be mentioning in their earnings. When you're hearing AI, are you kind of leaning in and being like, yes, more? Are you leaning out and being like, I don't know? In a lot of cases, it's a me-to thing. Yes, we also have AI, and we can think of ways to spend money on AI if that's what you want us to be doing. And so it's not translating, of course, it's not translating immediately into earnings, and you can sort of push out the earnings that you expect from the research and development spend there out to some point

in the future and just sort of participate in what you hope is enthusiasm for mentioning the topic. But I think that they really, for the stock, the floor here is to ignore the gap earnings and to look at the adjusted earnings, which are above $4 a share for a $66 stock. So, trading it about 15 times adjusted earnings. But the gap earnings are nowhere near that. They're issuing a lot of stock. They've got other expenses that they would like you to ignore when they're talking about their adjusted earnings.

So until they actually start showing growth in some column, it could be earnings per share, it could be revenue, it could be something. But if they're not showing growth in any of those categories, they're not going to get priced like a growth company. And is this the case where they can cut their way to growth, or does it have to come from somewhere else? Well, I think that they over-hired, like many other companies, pretty much everybody in the tech world did during the COVID fever. So they can definitely become more efficient, whether they can become enough more efficient at the same time that they are increasing spending on AI in a way that pleases the market.

I don't know. They haven't come up with anything that's pleased the market in a couple of years now. Yeah, that is true. And so much of this quarter, the market's reaction has been about guidance. And Zoom, they raised theirs, but it wasn't quite what the market was looking for. Is there just too much pressure this quarter on having to raise guidance enough that the market feels optimistic about your company? Well, I think they're not even growing and they're not projecting to grow as much as inflation.

So if your guidance is saying, let's ignore the currency translation and ignore a couple of other things, and when you do that, we're still talking about 3 to 5 percent top line guidance for the year, that's less than where inflation is tracking right now. So, you know, they're not giving a story that is leading to a growth investor being excited about what they can guide to at the moment, and they're not providing the efficiency element of translating what is an impressive top line total into a really impressive bottom line total. So if Zoom isn't a growth company at this point, what is it? It is something that we remember being around and changing our lives during COVID. Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

As a brand, they are one of those companies where you just talk about the brand as a verb. I'm going to be zooming later, something like that, whether it's on teams, whether it explains an experience, which is not entirely positive. I know that in the case of some of my children, they detest Zoom for what it did to their education at the time. And they will never be fans of it. Through no fault of Zoom zone, Zoom was providing a great service that was necessary at the time. But it comes with costs. And the brand is not, I think, untouched by the time in which it exploded.

So during the pandemic, we spent a lot of time on Zoom. We also spent a lot of time at home, a lot of time fixing up our houses. Doesn't look like we're doing that now. Lowe's sales were down, compare-bill sales, down 4% for the quarter. Is this just the spending cycle where people are spending more on travel and less on consumer discretionary? Or is there something else going on with Lowe's? No, I don't think there's anything more than that going on with Lowe's. There were a lot of home projects initiated and completed in the last couple of years. There are always additional things that are going wrong with a house that can not be delayed just because you don't feel like making that expenditure right now.

Everybody who wants to be going off on vacation, getting out of the house, those are the things where we're seeing cyclical growth right now. housing. The houses that people are in are a little bit better taken care of now than they were a few years ago because of all the time spent in them. That cycle is somewhat played out. And then, you know, then you've got interest rates, which are not helping in terms of people upgrading their housing. No, the housing market is pretty much stuck. And we saw the same thing with Home Depot's quarter. Both companies talked about lower prices in lumber, they talked about, the weather, they talked about consumer spending less.

Looking at Home Depot and Lowe's, they're kind of like the Coke and Pepsi of home improvement. When you look at Coke and Pepsi, they're kind of in two different paths right now with Pepsi having all of this other snack stuff and Coke still being mostly beverage. With Home Depot and Lowe's, are they coming closer together or farther apart? I think they're about as close together as any companies in a duopoly. are. They're extremely similar to the point where they're occasionally next to each other. And there are, and I was not aware of this until doing a little bit of research today, internet rumors that go back sometime, that the origin of Home Depot and Lowe's was a husband and wife who got divorced.

and the wife started her own company and sort of, none of which is true, by the way, but this is just something that gets out and gets checked out by Snopes and other places that quash, you know, urban myths, but that they're so similar that their paths could only be explained by, you know, an intramarital situation. You can look up the rumor if you want. It's not true, but it goes to just how proximate they often are to each other. They've got very, very similar sized stores, a reasonably similar number of stores. Home Depot has got a few more, a similar breakdown in what they devote to home and garden square footage as compared to the store indoor experience. So I think they're pretty, pretty similar.

Interesting, because I always tended to think of Home Depot as being more of the pros store and Lowe's as more of the sort of consumer-friendly. But I think you're right that they're sort of going towards each other. I know Lowe's has spent a lot of money recently trying to get the pros interested in Home Depot on the other side. They're spending more money on like building home improvement centers inside the store that are more friendly for selling appliances. So it does seem like they're kind of looking to get the other part of the business that they're missing. Yeah, Home Depot is ahead on the professional services side, and that's an area where Lowe's is going to want to improve, and so they become more similar as time goes by. There are slightly different brands that are exclusive to Home Depot versus Lowe's. Those brands aren't going to change.

They're sort of locked in to one store or another, depending on what brand of paint you want. You're going to be in one store or another, or you're going to be in one store or another. whoever is maybe helping you pick out the paints is going to be advising certain colors that are done by a certain brand. The same is true of other sort of tools that you find in one versus the other. They become more and more similar over time, I believe. Interesting. I wanted to talk about one more company that reported, which is Dick's sporting goods. They came in with sales over 3% comparable sales.

the youth sports business. That is somewhere where consumers are still spending money, apparently. Yeah, they're getting out of the house, and they're playing more games. And kids are growing up and growing into, you know, different sized uniforms that they need and getting running through the equipment they have. And sports is, you know, something that people are back to. And And along the way, Dix became sort of the unquestioned leader. There was a time not too many years ago, maybe almost a decade ago, when there were significant competitors to Dix, Sports Authority, a number of other brand name, city sports, things that are just no longer around. And Dix is competing more, I think, with Amazon for those categories than any other change. that you can really national sporting goods chains are just not in the business anymore.

Yeah, interesting. So now we know we're not spending money on our houses, but we are still spending money on our kids and all of their various sports gear. Thanks for your time today, Bill. Thank you. I think you know everything about Social Security? Robert Brokamp and Allison Southwick break down Social Security myths that may surprise you. This is security reform is back in the news. And for good reason.

The program is the biggest line item in the federal budget, accounting for almost 20% of Uncle Sam's outlays. Social Security is the foundation for most Americans' retirements. According to the Social Security Administration, the program provides 30% of retirees' income. Almost half of retirees rely on it for the majority of their income. Social Security is also in trouble. A decade from now, the program won't have enough money to pay 100% of benefits. But even if Social Security were fully funded, the program has another problem. It's complex, and the majority of Americans don't understand how it works.

In a recent quiz of true, false questions created by Mass Mutual, 69% of participants either barely passed or failed. I took it and got to be, so that's kind of embarrassing. So yes, the complexity makes it hard to navigate Social Security, but other misunderstandings abound because of bad information found in political agenda talking points, partial truths, or folks just not keeping up with how the program's policies have evolved over time. Do you really need to understand the finer points of Social Security? Because I'm already bored of listening to myself here. But the answer is yes, because you could end up missing out on money. And I know you like money. So today we're going to talk about five of the most common myths and misconceptions,

hence force known as myth conceptions because Bro wrote the outline and is seeking revenge with me for some reason. So, yes, five myth conceptions that prevent Americans collectively and individually from maximizing Social Security. All right, bro, are you ready? I'm ready. Let's go. You're just going to be. Yeah, I'm glad this makes you happy. Okay.

Miss, nope, myth conception number one, Social Security is bankrupt. Yeah, the belief in this, myth conception. See, it's not so hard to say. It was confirmed last week in a survey from Northwestern Mutual, which found that 45% of respondents indicated they don't think Social Security will be there when they need it. But here's the deal. Social Security is mostly a pay-as-you-go program. So the taxes taken out of a workers' paycheck today become a retirees benefit check tomorrow. Now, for decades, the taxes collected were higher than the benefits paid, and the excess went into these trust funds. However, that flow has reversed.

Now the program relies on the trust funds to pay benefits in full. Unfortunately, the trust funds are currently projected to run dry in 2033, and at that point, taxes paid by workers will only be sufficient to pay 77% of scheduled benefits. So even without changes, you'll still get around three-fourths of your scheduled benefit. That stinks for those of us who will be in retirement by then, but it's not as gloomy and doomy as we're often led to believe. As long as there are workers paying payroll taxes, the program will still have money. All right. Mithconception number two. Everything will work out.

Right. So even though Social Security isn't bankrupt, a 23% benefit cut would still hurt. There are many retirees who could not afford to have thousands of dollars less in income. So something needs to be done. And there's really no painless solution. Taxes are going to have to be raised, benefits cut, the retirement age raised, or maybe a mixture of all three. Let's just take a look at one aspect of the tax angle. So according to the recent Social Security, Trustees report. The program would be fully funded if the payroll tax rose from the current 12.4% to 15.84%. Now, if you know like that, we could consider raising the eligibility age. When you think about it, when Social Security was launched in the 1930s, you couldn't claim benefits until age 65. Back then, someone who reached that age lived on average another 14 years. But nowadays, 65-year-olds could expect to live another 20 years. So perhaps the age of Social Security eligibility should be index to life expectancy. And there are plenty of other tweaks that could be made. The American

Academy of Actuaries recently released an interactive tool that illustrates the tradeoffs. And if you want to play around with that, you can find it at actuary.org forward slash social security. But until our leaders in Washington figure this out, the safe assumption for workers in their 40s and younger and maybe even early 50s is that you'll get 75% of your projected benefit. All right. Mythconception number three. You should claim as soon as possible before the program goes kaput. Yeah, the average Social Security claiming age has risen from 63 in 1998 to 65 in 2021. And this is good news because the longer you wait, the bigger your benefit. That said, 65 is still probably too early for most people

because they're choosing a lower benefit instead of delaying until their full retirement age, which is 65 to 67, depending on the year you're born, or up until age 70, at which point delaying doesn't result in a bigger payout. And one of the reasons that beneficiaries give for claiming early is they feel that they have to get the money while they can and before the system collapses. But if there's any group that will likely be spared from benefit cuts, it's likely folks in their 60s and older. I have personally not seen any proposed fix to Social Security that would significantly reduce benefits for those near or in retirement. All right. MIF conception number four. Everyone should delay until 70.

Various studies have shown that most people should hold off claiming Social Security until 70, or maybe close to it. There are circumstances that would warrant an earlier claiming strategy. And really, they're too numerous to go into detail on this podcast. But here are a few scenarios. So maybe you're claiming the spousal benefit, which doesn't increase beyond your full retirement age. You might have health issues that result in a below-average life expectancy. Or you might have minor or disabled children at home, and they will receive benefits when you begin to claim your benefits. So the right claiming strategy for you really does depend on your unique circumstances and earnings record. And that's why I can help to use tools to crunch your actual

numbers and maybe illustrate the tradeoffs. If you work with a financial advisor, they definitely have these tools. Or you can start with open social security.com, which has the benefit of being free. And there are a few other good tools out there that are pretty inexpensive. All right. Myth Conception number five, the claiming decision is irreversible. Now, when people hear about how the more you delay, the bigger benefit you get, and they've already claimed Social Security, they may think, oh, no, I've already blown it. But there are a couple of situations where you might be able to do at least somewhat of a do-over. So one is, if you've been receiving benefits for less than 12 months, you can do what's called

a withdrawal of application. Now, you have to pay back all the money you received, including any benefits your spouse and children received. But once you resume your benefits later, Social Security will pay you at whatever level you're eligible for based on your age at the time. It's like you never claimed Social Security before. Now, the other option is only available if you've reached your full retirement age, but not yet 70. You can then request to have your retirement benefits suspended. The amount that you were receiving will then earn these delayed retirement credits. But while your payments are suspended,

your spouse and children can't collect benefits based on your work record, and you can't claim benefits based on your spouse's work record. All right, bro, how about you bring us home with the biggest, final bonus myth conception about Social Security? Well, that is, regardless of the future Social Security, it never was, and it never will be a way to fund the retirement of your dreams, unless your dreams involve small living spaces and small portions. This year, the average annual retirement benefit from Social Security is just $21,900. We cannot, and we never could really rely on Uncle Sam to make our golden years

truly golden. So keep saving and keep investing so that you will be the person who's in control of your ability to retire. As always, people on the program may have interests in the stock they talk about, and Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy ourselves stocks based solely on what you hear. I'm Deidrell Willard. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.