Motley Fool Money - Meta Has Been Busy

Starting point is 00:00:01 Meta is making even bigger AI bets. Today, on Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing. Welcome to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing. I'm your host, Tyler Crow, and today I'm joined by longtime contributors, Matt Frankl and John Quest. Today, we're going to dive into a couple mailbag questions. We get questions about GE Vernova.

Starting point is 00:00:21 We got questions about REITs, which I think definitely had Matt excited to talk about today. But we want to start today with two relatively large announcements from meta platforms today, all of which related to AI. One of them was the launch of its Muse Spark 1.1 artificial intelligence model, kind of the next iteration of what they've been doing with AI models. And the second was it announced that its plans to put its own AI chip into production

Starting point is 00:00:47 is going to start in September with both Broadcom and Taiwan Semi as kind of designers, manufacturers, helping them build out their own chip production capacities. Now, guys, these sound like really big moves. So help me wrap some context about what we're seeing here. here with these. Yeah, as far as the model goes from meta platforms, this is actually a pretty big upgrade in a couple of areas. You wouldn't normally be inclined to think so.

Starting point is 00:01:15 I was tempted to overlook this just going from 1.0 to 1.1 here with Muse Spark. But in here that I think is significant, one is the context window. So they're going to provide a 1 million token context window. What this does is it allows an AI agent to essentially work longer on a task without forgetting what it's doing. That's actually a problem with some models out there. You'll send an AI agent to work. It loses context. It forgets what it's doing.

Starting point is 00:01:46 It keeps working and keeps spending your money. That's a problem. So a $1 million token context window, this is roughly four times as big as the 1.0 version of Muse Spark. So that's a really significant upgrade. The other big change here that I'm seeing here is this is now being launched to people to use. There's pricing to go with this. And if you look at the pricing, it's more than 50% or 50% times cheaper than competitive products from Anthropic and Open AI. That's both for the input and the output.

Starting point is 00:02:24 That is really significant when you think about these two businesses because Anthropic and Open AI, You know, they kind of need the products that they have out there. That's what they do. Meta has a whole other business paying the bills, and it does this on the side. So it has a luxury of this aggressive pricing. And so that is something really significant to note with MewSpark 1.1. So with the chips, I'm not sure if it's as significant as the model. So this is essentially what Google and Amazon do.

Starting point is 00:02:56 These chips, as Tyler mentioned, they're designed with the help of Broadcom and manufactured by Taiwan Semi. This is the essential model that Apple uses to design its own iPhone chips. And the goal here is to really reduce the company's dependence on Nvidia and AMD processors that are really expensive as the company aims to build out its

Starting point is 00:03:14 compute power and double it again next year. And really the idea is that these chips are going to handle the easier side of AI tasks. They're still going to need the more powerful Nvidia ones for that. Yeah, I want to put this in kind of context of everything we've seen from meta recently because this isn't what

Starting point is 00:03:30 to me, seems like the biggest major announcement, or it's a couple in like what I would say is major announcements for meta. It's been using a lot of, you know, creative financing to build data centers. To your point, you know, the amount that they're adding this year, doubling that next year. It's, it's made some announcements with smart glasses. It recently announced a prediction market asset. And I know I'm missing a few deals in announcement there, but I think it kind of gets to the broader point. There's a lot of things going on here. when I look at meta and I see all of these things that it's doing, I am less impressed. I see an unfocused company that's throwing a lot of spaghetti at the wall to kind of see what sticks.

Starting point is 00:04:12 You know, the company seems to be all in with these new ideas that end up maybe not doing as much. And it all kind of reverts back to the basic advertising model that they've had for so long with Facebook, Instagram, what have you. Now, I've brought this up before, but the company really dodged a bullet, I would say, with all of that investment in data centers for its reaction. reality labs, virtual reality efforts, being able to basically pivot quickly to AI and be like, yeah, we don't have to write this down because now it's all AI stuff. So here's my kind of broader question, putting all that in context. Should investors be excited about these kind of new moves and things that they're doing? Because to me, I just see an undisciplined company trying to look like something that it isn't. Well, yeah, I mean, throughout meta's history,

Starting point is 00:04:55 the company has proven that it's exceptionally good at doing one thing, and that's making money from its core advertising business. Like, if you compare Facebook's average revenue per user to that of Pinterest or Snap, for example, it's not even in the same ballpark. But to your point, Tyler, any attempt that they've made, and they've made quite a few, to build out a second significant revenue stream hasn't really gone anywhere, like all the Metaverse spending, you mentioned. As far as the chips are concerned, I'm not really sure what to make of it from a potential

Starting point is 00:05:22 standpoint. If, on one hand, I mean, if it meaningfully reduces their spend on VDGPUs, it could be a positive in the sense that their CAPEX is going to go a longer way when they're building out all their compute power. But on the other hand, they're still going to have to buy a lot of Nvidia and AMD chips. They actually signed the biggest AI deal in history to buy AMD chips for the hardest AI jobs. And in the near term, focusing on building out their own chip production could actually increase the company's CAPEX needs.

Starting point is 00:05:54 So, I mean, in a nutshell, they're doing what Google and Amazon have already been doing for years, building chips to handle the easier AI workloads and still relying on Nvidia and AMD for the rest. This could be an efficiency win for the company, but I really don't see it as a major needle mover, even in terms of cost structure. If it pans out as it expected, I'd actually see it as a bigger needle mover for Broadcom

Starting point is 00:06:16 than I would for META. Yeah, I mean, if we say that META is just throwing spaghetti at the wall, then I say, Andiamo Manjade, let's eat, because this is actually going really well for them. I mean, you look at 2025, 20% growth in income from operations. We come into 2026. It's accelerated even more. We have a 30% jump in income from operations.

Starting point is 00:06:37 And I know that we can say that the gains are coming from that core advertising business. And that's a fair point. But I don't know if it's so simple. I don't know if we can completely disassociate all that it's investing into AI and say, well, that's over here and the advertising business is over there. I think that in reality, there's more overlap between the two than we can really parse out. I do believe that there are some gains happening as a result of what it's investing in the AI side of the market. So I think it's a good investment. I think that you look at the growth speaks for itself.

Starting point is 00:07:14 Growing at this scale, at this speed, it's doing something right, even if it's throwing spaghetti at the wall. And on top of that, I mean, you have a stock here that is cheaper than the overall market at just 22 times earnings and growing this fast. So I don't know. It's hard to find too much for me to complain about with Meadow. I didn't have John speaking Italian on my bingo card for today. Coming up next, we're going to get into listener questions. First one on GE Vernova. At Volvo, safety is not a feature. It's our purpose. Rigorous crash testing. Decades of learning from real accidents. Innovations that help prevent accidents before they happen and help protect you when they occur. Going above and beyond industry standards, a vision of zero collisions.

Starting point is 00:08:02 Volvo's legacy revolves around you because safety is about helping to keep you and everyone around you safe for life. Learn more at VolvoCars.caps.caps.com. Hey, everyone, just a quick reminder. If you do want to get a question into us, have it answered by us on air, go ahead and email us at podcasts at fool.com. That's podcasts with an S at Fool.com. Just remember, keep it foolish, keep it short, and don't ask for personalize advice so we don't get in trouble with the SEC. Today's question comes from Stevens Cox, and it says, hello fools, I was wondering

Starting point is 00:08:34 if the team on the Hidden Gem Investing podcast could cover GE Vernova. I really love the company. I think it's an essential player to the future, but it seems to be priced to perfection regardless. What does the team think? John, I'm going to let you start, and then we'll see where this goes, because I have some pretty deep thoughts here. Yeah, my thought's probably not as deep.

Starting point is 00:08:55 You know, and right before it was spun out when GE kind of split up into different companies, I was tasked with writing an article for Fool.com on GE Vernova. And diving down deep into that at the time, I really came away, just impressed with this business. I like this business. I was hesitant to invest only because it's not a space I typically follow and I was nervous. I didn't hear other people talking about it. Just kind of doubted myself. But wow, what a mistake to not invest.

Starting point is 00:09:23 This has been an incredible stock since GE spun it out. I believe it's up over 700%. What I will point out here is that most of the gains recently have been valuation. And just take that for what it's worth. Essentially, the business is doing one thing. The valuation is driving a lot of the stock gain. So let's just pretend for a moment here, as we try to say, all right, here's where we are now.

Starting point is 00:09:50 let's assume no expansion or contraction in the valuation from here. What can this business do for shareholders? And you look at the business right now, I mean that revenue growth in the most recent quarter, 16% growth for a business of this size maturity for the products that it offers with energy generation, solar, wind, turbines, many things. You know, you look at that growth.

Starting point is 00:10:15 That's really quite outstanding. And then you look at the backlog, even greater growth than the revenue. So that would point to ongoing gains in the revenue. I do think that you have a business here that might be able to produce 15% annual returns for the stock. You add in things such as the dividend, the buybacks, all these things.

Starting point is 00:10:37 Maybe a 15% when you just look at the business fundamentals itself, now you take a step back and say, okay, but what about the valuation? I don't think that's going to be a tailwind from here on out, just looking at the valuation. today, probably a little bit of a headwind, how much of a headwind. That's what I personally don't know. Let me chime in before Tyler gives his deep thoughts here. So there's a solid argument to be made that Vernova is the best position power stock for the AI infrastructure buildout. And I mean, just look at

Starting point is 00:11:07 its backlog. It's a $163 billion backlog. It expects that to reach $200 billion by next year. The company's electrification segment, which deals with grid equipment, transformers and other components, it booked more data center orders in the first quarter than it did in all of 2025. Their turbine production is essentially sold out for almost a decade into the future. So I put push back on John a little bit that, yes, the valuation has outgrown the business, but there's a lot, especially all the things that I just mentioned, that aren't really showing up in the numbers quite yet. So on the other hand, this is an expensive stock, especially if you consider it's,

Starting point is 00:11:44 even if you consider that backlog, the growing order book, The Bull case essentially assumes that the demand cycle we're seeing is going to last for years into the future. And the reality is there are physical constraints on their ability to fully capitalize on that demand. So my bottom line on Vernava is that the demand is clearly there to justify today's pricing. The company has more orders than it can physically build for many years, but that valuation only holds up if that demand holds up for like the next decade or so. and there isn't any significant kind of breaks in that AI Kappex story anytime soon. Tyler, on to your deep thoughts.

Starting point is 00:12:22 There was actually a reason I picked this one specifically. And the reason we did is because G.E. Vernova was actually a recent recommendation in the Hidden Gem service. And I wanted to get that out there. I did even clear it with like marketing to say if we could say that on the free site. But I wanted to get that out there. And, you know, Stephen, you seem to be like in tune with what we're thinking here. And normally I am the valuation, of the three of us, I would.

Starting point is 00:12:45 probably be the most cromogene with burnout valuation. But I'm going to make the case to you guys that even when you look at this valuation today, looking at the energy space in general, this is probably one of the companies actually worth paying up for. And let me get into why. You were talking about, Matt, you were talking about its backlog of equipment or in orders that it has for new turbines because it makes turbines for every type of power. It's natural gas turbines. Hydroids. Hydroids. hydroelectric turbines, coal turbines, nuclear power, anything that runs a turbine for electricity, GE makes it. And there's three companies in the world that make up two-thirds of the market for this.

Starting point is 00:13:28 It's them. It's Siemens in Mitsubishi. Here is the most interesting aspect of their business. They don't make a lot of money selling the actual turbine. It's like maybe high single digits, maybe 10% margin when they're lucky on these engines. it's not much. The actual money is made servicing aftermarket parts and service for decades after the actual turbine is sold. And so when you have these really high periods of engine orders, it actually has some of the lowest margins in its business because its aftermarket's parts

Starting point is 00:14:04 and service business is nearly triple the margins that they get for equipment orders. So right now, it's arguably at one of its lowest margin points in its period because as it builds out that fleet of turbines that it's going to be putting in every single piece of power equipment out there, those long-term orders of aftermarket sales, servicing, checking in on the things, maintenance and stuff like that, that's going to be much higher margin, much higher return business that lasts for decades after that thing is actually installed. And so not only do we have like a decade runway of, you know, orders coming in, you have a decade of fleet buildout. Right now there's about 400 gigawatts of GEVernova turbines powering something in the world right now. And they're expecting over the next five to seven years to put 200 gigawatts of additional power out there. So they're almost adding 50% to their fleet. And that's going to give that long-term service sales aftermarket sort of business. And so when I look at GE Vernova, of all the businesses out there that I want to pay up for, I want to pay up for this one because I have so much more visibility into the long-term aspects of the business relative to some of the other one-time sales that you might have with the infrastructure build out with electrification.

Starting point is 00:15:27 Well, I mean, Tyler, as I listened to you talk, the first thing I asked myself is, where were you when I needed you two years ago? But the second thing I ask is, okay, you're saying all this, but you don't want the stock today. So what would actually get you off the sidelines and into the buyer's arena? Well, one, mildly full trading restriction says that I can't buy it right now. So we'll start with that. But yeah, this has been a candidate for me for a little while. To your point about two years ago, it's kind of funny. When they spun GEVernova out, it actually looked like the problem child of the three companies.

Starting point is 00:16:00 I think we talked about this with the Honeywell space. been off a couple days ago where it's like, oh, they had all these bad servicing contracts with wind and, you know, all these other things. And, you know, everyone thought that GE Health Care was going to be like the gem that threw off all this cash and was going to reward investors. And lo and behold, Vernova has been, has become the true champion here. Yeah, I don't own it. I probably, I should throw my hand up and say guilty as charged. But, you know, perhaps once the trading restrictions that we have now that I've talked about it, I can't trade for it. or buy it for a few more days.

Starting point is 00:16:35 But certainly something I'm going to be putting on my radar has come time soon. Coming up next, we're going to get another listener question going into the Real Estate Investment Trust. This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, everything else follows. Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales, using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery. and access better data across the business. The result?

Starting point is 00:17:09 Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. Learn more at Accenture.com slash Spotify. Here we go. Someone's already claiming this is our year. Someone else said that last year too. A round of Jameson, ginger, and lime arrives at a table. Smooth enough for kickoff, smooth enough for extra time.

Starting point is 00:17:32 New friends pulling up a stool. debates about whether that was a handball. Cheers rising like a roar around the room. Because match days are about the shared moments. How did Jameson to your match day lineup? Jameson, it's what you bring. Please enjoy our products responsibly. So we don't normally do two questions or listener questions in any given show,

Starting point is 00:17:55 but we had to do two this time because we actually got a question specifically for one of our guests on the podcast. And we had a question come in from Bruce Clark who asked specifically for Matt's opinions on something. And here we go. Matt, question about American Tower, AMT, is the ticker. The question is, is the debt manageable and will satellite technology erode the land-based tower business? And yes, just for some contexts

Starting point is 00:18:24 for people who may not know American Tower is a real estate investment trust that specializes in owning the towers that companies like Verizon, T-Mobile, T-Mobile, AT&T, put all their communications equipment on. So basically it's like the landlord for the telecommunications network.

Starting point is 00:18:41 So with that slight introduction, and because we need to feature Matt in this whole section, Matt, what do you got? Yeah, so, well, first, American Tower to add to your company description, their name's kind of misleading because they are not just American.

Starting point is 00:18:54 They are literally all over the world. You know, they have towers all over the place and their chief rival, Crown Castle International, is only in America. So they're, you know, I've always argued they should swap names. But so Bruce is right that from, you know, their debt is elevated. A debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.9 is on the high end for a REIT. They have a 4x interest coverage, meaning that their earnings before interest in taxes are roughly four times what they're spending on interest on their debt.

Starting point is 00:19:23 So that's comfortable, but not ideal. The company, they've done a solid job of extending their debt maturities at favorable interest rates. But the debt paydown hasn't been as much of a priority as I feel it should have. I mean, for example, they just raised their dividend by 5%. They've been buying back stock, which is kind of rare for a reap. And while I get it, the stock is cheap on paper, as I'll talk about in a minute. I feel like de-leveraging would be a somewhat better use of their money. I mean, I'm not worried about the debt in the sense that it's any kind of real existential threat to the company. But I would love to see somewhat of a shift in capital. allocation over the next couple of years.

Starting point is 00:20:01 Yeah, it's hard for me to imagine that we would see much of a shift, though. I mean, because a lot of those capital allocation priorities, they're kind of hard to move around too much. I mean, as a rate, right, we pay out 90% of the taxable income. But then there's also kind of expectations from investors that, yeah, we are going to raise our dividend on a regular cadence and not change where we're putting that money. I was just kind of looking at this. You know, American Tower paying over a billion in interest payments annually

Starting point is 00:20:33 and roughly $3 billion in dividend payments annually. Wouldn't you say that that high debt load does impact the ability to raise the dividend? I know that there is some flexibility, but I don't know. At a 4% yield, that's good but not necessarily great for a REIT. Wouldn't you say there are probably better options out there with lower leverage? Yeah, I would agree. And that's one of the reasons I don't own the stock directly. I have plenty of exposure through ETSs because it's one of the biggest REITs in the market. But yeah, I would say there are better options with lower leverage if you're just looking for a 4% yield from your investment

Starting point is 00:21:08 with some upside. But you're right that the debt load, it kind of does constrain them on how much they can raise their dividend. There's a lot to unpack with the 90% of taxable income they have to pay out. That's for a whole other show. But yeah, there are some better options if you want to lower levered rate with a high dividend yield. I want to hit on the second part of the question, too, because I think it touches with a lot of what we've been talking about with AI and space and all that stuff because there has been this new concept going out there. It's like, well, we're just going to put data centers in space, and we're going to put satellite communications in space, and we're going to render a lot of,

Starting point is 00:21:43 like, land-based communication, land-based data center is kind of useless. And this really is American Towers business. So to the second part, like, do you? you see those endeavors, you know, satellite communication disrupting land-based telecoms or data centers in space, is that going to basically upend American Tower here or do they still have some legs? Yeah. So, I mean, the satellite direct-to-sell ambitions, you know, we see companies like Starlink, like AST Space Mobile, it's a threat that's worth watching.

Starting point is 00:22:17 But there are some physical constraints with what they're trying to do is essentially be an emergency backup if you have your cell phone and you go into an area that doesn't have cell coverage, it would kind of kick over to the satellite. Just for example, the direct-to-cell satellites that exist today anyway are not very good at providing coverage when you're indoors. That's a big obstacle to overcome. So because of things like that, for at least the next few years, this is likely to be a complement, not a replacement to these dense tower networks like American Tower operates. It's worth watching, but for the foreseeable future, I'm not worried about it. The only thing that I'd add here is that everything that Matt said is can be true,

Starting point is 00:22:59 and yet there can still be a huge greenfield opportunity for the direct-to-sell satellite companies simply because there are areas where an American Tower or other cellular service land-based is not available. And you think about remote areas of the USA, that's one thing. But internationally, there's just not the infrastructure in many countries that we enjoy in this country or even in many developed Western countries. So there are plenty of places where, you know, it's not a competing product. It's wide open to whoever can get the coverage there. And in many cases, the most obvious path would be a satellite communication. So the satellite communication companies can grow substantially without even infringing on the existing land-based turf.

Starting point is 00:23:48 Yeah, you know, I think I mentioned this when we were doing our show about the SpaceX S1 of when I lived in West Africa for a while. I tried to sign up for Starlink because, you know, the land-based options were relatively limited. And, you know, I don't think, and to this point, I don't think that, you know, it's going to disrupt a lot of the existing systems that American Tower has because that's infrastructure there. It's pretty cheap. But the growth levers that the company has been pulling in international markets, it does have a very large. presence in Africa. It could limit that if, you know, satellite communications now start to really drop in prices and make it comparable for places like that. So I'm guessing by the everyone's assessments here, it's like it's a decent business. It pays an okay dividend, probably over leveraged with

Starting point is 00:24:34 some, you know, long-term threats that maybe it's fine, but maybe not the best investment out there today. Fair assessment, guys? Yeah, I mean, there's a lot to like about American Tower right now. the core tower business is performing better than expected recently. I mean, in the first quarter revenue was up 7 percent. Earnings were above expectations. The company owns the Corsite data center business. So this is not just a tower reed. They actually made one of the big data center acquisitions of the past few years. And that's growing at a double digit pace for obvious AI reasons. The stock trades at 15 times funds from operations, which is essentially the REIT version of earnings. So pretty cheap, 4% dividend yield as we've talked about a minute ago. So his,

Starting point is 00:25:15 historically, that's very cheap for this company. I am not a shareholder and I probably won't be, but really for the same reason I don't own Nvidia. It's because I have a ton of exposure through the S&P 500 index funds I own because it makes up like 7 or 8% of them. And it's the same thing with American Tower with the real estate index funds I own. So not going to be a shareholder myself, but there's a lot to like about the stock. Yeah, for me, American Tower isn't on my radar for a different reason. And that's that I usually don't go for reet stocks. And I normally don't go for anything commercial real estate, just not my thing, especially when I consider why would I potentially want to invest in American Tower? It would be for the dividend. At 4%, you know, I can

Starting point is 00:25:54 pick a different stock that I understand better and like better, and that makes a lot more sense to me. And one in my portfolio now for its dividend would be Pepsi. I just think that Pepsi is a rock solid business. I don't think it's going anywhere, even with some current doubts, I guess, from the investor community. I think that its business is going to exist for my lifetime, and it pays a comparable dividend. So a business I understand better, like better, and paying the same dividend, for me, that makes more sense in investing in something I don't really know. So we'll go with a lukewarm. It's okay, but maybe take a look at Pipsy instead. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

Starting point is 00:26:37 So don't buy yourself stocks based solely on here. All personal finance content follows Motley, The Motley Cool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements or sponsored content provided for informational purposes only. To see our advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes. Thanks for producer Dan Boyd and the rest of the Motley Fool team. For Matt, John, and myself, thanks for listening and we'll chat again soon.

Motley Fool Money - Meta Has Been Busy

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.