Motley Fool Money - Motley Fool Money: 09.14.2012

Episode Date: September 14, 2012

Apple unveils the iPhone 5.  McDonald's adds calories to its menu.  And Facebook's CEO says it's time to double down.   Our analysts discuss those stories and share some stocks on their radar.  Plus, Guardian technology editor Charles author talks about his book, Digital Wars:  Apple, Google, Microsoft and the Battle for the Internet. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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And you can get unlimited expert help at no extra cost, even on nights and weekends during tax season. Visit turbotax.com to get matched with an expert today, only available with TurboTax full service experts. Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money. From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money. Welcome to Motley Fool Money. Thanks for being here. I'm your host, Chris Hill, and joining me in studio this week from Motley Fool Inside Value, Joe Maker, from Motley Fool Pro, Jeff Fisher, and for a million-dollar portfolio, Ron Gross. Gentlemen, good to see you. How you doing, Greg? We have got the latest on iPhone 5 McDonald's menu and the newest member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

We will dip into the full mailbag. And as always, we've got a few stocks on our radar. But we begin with the big macro. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve announced it is extending its plan to keep interest rates low until at least the middle of 2015. And Ron, the Fed also announced a plan to buy $40 billion worth of mortgage bonds a month, basically for the rest of time. Well, Chris, this is like a doctor telling a sick patient, you're not doing so well.

But we're going to try another round of antibiotics, and we really feel good about this one. Right. Right. So how long do I take it? If you're the patient, you're certainly happy to see the antibiotics coming. I mean, the markets are loving this. The markets are really rallying on this news. But let's be realistic and let's not lose sight that the Fed so far has not been as effective as they would like to be. Unemployment is still high.

Interestingly, the Fed talked more about unemployment and labor here than they have in a long time. This is clearly designed to target that unemployment rate and get the economy moving. And to keep your job. But the market loves it, but I'm cautious. Jeff, what do you think? Yeah, and it's a sea change. It's a remarkable sea change we've seen from the Europe Central Bank, European Central Bank, and now the U.S. Fed, both saying this is an indefinite program.

That's the first time in history that any sort of stimulus has been open-ended, and I find that remarkable. The Fed is also promising to keep interest rates very low. even once the economy starts to recover. So they're not going to let their foot off the gas, even once numbers start to get better. They want to be assured that things are running very well before they take away the stimulus. So that means low rates well into 2015. And this could be a very good environment for home prices, clearly, and for stocks, the next two to three years. The question is, what finally happens, as Ron hinted at, when the punch bowl is drained

and taken away? And let's not forget, they're printing money, basically to make this happen. So there's consequences to printing money indefinitely, whether it's a weak dollar or inflation down the road or a combination of things. So I understand you have to do what you have to do to keep the patient alive, but there's always consequences to it. I mean, the patient isn't dying. That's the thing. The patient has a little anemic. Yeah, and we've just been, when you think back a little bit in the last four or five years,

we've had TARP, and now we're on QE3 or QE Infinity, as you could call it. And when you think about it, practically speaking, do we really need a massive fiscal stimulus plan every year? It just doesn't seem practical when you try and step back a little bit. To me, it's too much. And so maybe that's why it's indefinite. I think there's some fatigue with trying to roll these out every year. And they just want to put enough confidence in the economy indefinitely. Yeah.

And that's why they announced. I agree. They should have just pulled an apple and named it like the new QE and just left it at that. Are we done in terms of the levers that can be pulled? Because we've talked about that in the past that, you know, Ben Bernanke, he can pull different levers. It seems like all the levers are pulled now. If this is open-ended... Congress aside, and that's what Ben says.

I'm doing this. I'm doing all I can. But we need Congress to step up and write some good laws and address the fiscal cliff and, you know, start to move the budget in the right direction. I mean, he's pulled a lot of levers. But remember, he can pull the lever as far as he wants, essentially. and you can print as much money as you need. Sweet. Shares of Apple. The infinite lever.

Shares of Apple hit an all-time high on Friday. On Wednesday, CEO Tim Cook unveiled the iPhone 5, and by Friday, it was already sold out of Apple's online store. I didn't know that. Yeah. Bad news, Jeff. I'm sure you'll have a chance to buy it. Joe, what do you think?

Well, it's everything everyone expected. It's taller. It's leaner. It's faster. It's sleaker. It looks like a wonderful phone. I'll probably end up buying one myself. That said, I think there is a little bit of concern

if you're thinking about this over a long time horizon where some of the biggest improvements around a bigger screen, turn-by-turn navigation, those are LTE, those are staples of Samsung phones that have been around for more than a year in the U.S. And it's funny that we just rolled off this big court case where Apple wins and everyone makes Samsung out to be this huge follow-on copycat

that when just now Apple is rolling with LTE 19 months after Samsung hit the US with an LTE phone, I'm not saying Apple isn't an innovative company, but it's something to think about. Ron, I mentioned the shares hit an all-time high, and analysts are estimating that by the end of the year, Apple is going to sell somewhere in the neighborhood of 58 million of the iPhone file. It's wild kind of numbers. Yeah, even at, where are we? almost $700 a share, I think.

We still think there's room to run, probably 20% plus. I mean, the future is a hard thing to predict, but we think $850 is a perfectly reasonable valuation here. And if you're going to be critical about the phone, which there's really no need to be, but hey, we got some time. There's nothing earth-shattering here to this phone. It was improvements of existing technologies. There's no brand big new thing. And Apple is, you know, when they do come up with something big, new, that's when you're really going to see some interest picking up in the stock even more.

So we think there's room to run. And yet, Jeff, when you look at Nokia, which earlier this month rolled out new versions of the Lumia smartphone, and oh, by the way, at that time, they didn't include a price point. They didn't include a shipment date. It seems like even though there was no huge wow factor with Apple with the iPhone 5, there was no big surprise, no one more thing, as Steve Jobs famously used to do, it seems like... hear things like they're already sold out. It seems like Apple's advantage is not just on the design side, but also on just the fulfillment, on the logistics, the shipping side. It

really seems like they have a huge advantage there, too. Definitely. And that's a big part of this story, is this phone is shipping in greater quantity to more countries more rapidly than any other phone in Apple's history. And I think that's why the stock is up so much. People are realizing maybe with Cook at the helm, who was the operational genius at Apple, there's even more focus on Apple. operations, logistics, and that could effectively bolster Apple's margins even. I don't want to say that's the direction they're going to go, but the more efficient you are, obviously, that's a possibility. And as for the phone, I find myself that I'm as interested in the operating

system as anything else. So the small improvements there are potentially big improvements in your life and how you use the phone. And the design, meanwhile, our colleague Nick Crow likened to a portion 9-11, which has been around for 30-some years, and they just make little tweaks as it goes because it's a great classic design. This phone may be such a strong design that's what it is. Joe, what's going to have a greater impact on the economy? The iPhone 5 or this open-ended bond buying program, the QE Infinity. Well, neither of them really driving society forward. I'll leave it at that. Fair enough. For the first time in three years, there's going to be a change in the Dow Jones

Industrial Average. Craft Foods will be dropped from the index, and United Health Group will become the newest member of the Dow 30. Jeff, I suppose we could have seen this coming because on October 1st, Kraft is going to split into two companies, so it's going to be smaller. That was the reason the folks that the Dow gave for this. Were you surprised, though, that United Health was the company chosen to replace it? Well, so what is Dow Jones saying? They're saying that health care is more important than macaroni and cheese. And on some level, that makes sense.

That's obviously wrong. But what they said as well is that they're adding. United Health because health care is such a large part of our economy and a growing part, according to the World Health Organization, health care, as a percentage of our GDP is around 15%, the greatest amount of any country in the world. And the Dow Jones already has Pfizer, J&J, and Merck on it, but the three combined account for less than 10% of the index. So if you add on United Health, you're still around 13%, I estimate, which is still less than its share of GDP. So it makes sense to add more health care to the index.

Ron, what do you think? I think the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a troubled index in the first place. It's not really used anywhere, but in the media. It's certainly not used by professional investors and even retail investors. I think about the S&P 500 more than the Dow. And that's because the Dow was price-weighted, not market cap. It's really not representative as the market as a whole, like the S&P 500 is. And it doesn't include dividends, which is actually a large part of the returns of stocks over time. So, you know, I really actually don't pay much attention to it.

Is getting added to the index, obviously, that's going to mean a slight bump for United Health for shareholders, because you've got mutual funds out there that are buying the Dow 30. That's got to help a little bit. But is that in and of itself a reason to buy shares of United Health? I would certainly say no. Recently, Dow Jones added Hewlett-Packard and CISC. Cisco Systems, sitting next and both have really... Well, there you go. Whoops.

Case closed. Coming up, if you thought Disney was done blowing huge amounts of money on movies, we've got some bad news. Stay tuned. You're listening to Motley Full Money. If you've got the money, honey, I got the time. Welcome back to Motley Full Money. Chris Hill here in the studio with Joe Maeger, Jeff Fisher, and Ron Gross. Before we continue with the news, got to mention a couple of housekeeping things.

The Holbert Financial Digest tracks the performance of investment newsletters. And this week, Holbert released information on the performance of those newsletters over the past five years. And I'm happy to say that there were three Motley Fool services in the top 10. Motley Fool's stock advisor, Rule Breakers, and Inside Value with our own Joe Baker. Very, very impressive. That's great. Other housekeeping.

Circle your calendar. September 25th is Worldwide Invest Better Day. You can learn more at Investbetterday. Here at the Motley Fool, we're launching a new free service. We're going to be doing live video streaming all day. Our Market Foolery podcast will be live streamed video, so check it out. And we're going to be doing meetups around the country. Joe, you're going to be in Chicago, right? Yes, that morning. So any listeners in the Chicago area, September 25th, mark it on your calendar. Good week for Facebook shares up more than 12 percent to enlarge part to CEO Mark Zuckerberg's appearance at the TechCrunch conference in Silicon Valley. Joe Zuckerberg's said that they'd made mistakes on mobile, they were working to correct them. It seems like, at least from the standpoint of when you look at the shares and what they're doing this week,

he did well and it was a real vote of confidence. Yeah, there was a lot of lost confidence heading into this. And I think people put a lot of stock and how he would respond. He was energetic, smart, articulate, had a long-term vision for the business and definitely someone that, even though he's young, he clearly has a good head on his shoulders and a good business plan. And honestly, I have a lot more respect for them than I do a lot of the CEOs that we track. Am I throwing money at Facebook today? No, I didn't love kind of a lack of detail around the mobile strategy.

In fairness, I understand why they can't out and out show all their cards, but that's something they're going to need to improve. But overall, it was a good showing on his part, and I wasn't impressed. Ron, is the clock ticking in terms of their mobile strategy, or do they have enough cash on hand where they're going to be fine? Yeah, I think with 10 billion in cash and almost a billion users, they're fine. I think the biggest problem here is that the company went public and is now under constant scrutiny, and it's exacerbated by the fact that the IPO was such a mess.

I mean, from a company perspective, they raise as much money as they possibly could, and that's kind of what they're supposed to do. And now everyone's peeking at them through the fishbowl, watching every move, and that can be different for a company that's used to doing things on their own. One thing I do wonder about, is kind of a talent. retention question. If you went to Facebook hoping to cash in quickly on some options or the stock, and you are a smart guy, you probably got courted by Google and Apple too, maybe Amazon, you are suddenly wondering, am I at the right place if my options are now deeply underwater?

So I think that's something you may end up seeing some creative moves around. Back during the financial crisis, Google basically repriced all their options to keep their talent, which outside shareholders weren't too wild about. I love what Zuckerberg said when talked about how they would be going after Google, perhaps, in the future. He said, we're doing one billion search queries a day and we're not even trying. And he had to back that down off a little bit later and say he was just being facetious about the not trying part.

But that's pretty incredible number. And if they ever do go after the search market, that's an interesting battle. Well, what about that, Joe? You follow Google closely. How worried should Google be about that? Well, Google does about a billion searches a day themselves. But the difference is that the Facebook searches aren't primarily around products or transactions. They're around people and maybe brands.

So if I'm searching on Google, odds are I'm going to be a lot closer to looking for a product that's going to bring me close to a point of sale online. Whereas on Facebook, you are many degrees away from actually buying something. So all things equal, those billion clicks at Facebook aren't worth quite as much as those at Google. The Walt Disney Company is going to write down 50 million. in costs in the fourth quarter and the charge is for a stop-motion animation film that was in the works, but production was halted. Ron, I know this is not a huge amount of money

in the grand scheme of Disney's balance sheet, but $50 million for a stop-motion anima-like, really? It seems like clearly it was a misstep. But as you say, I think perspective is necessary. This is 0.01% of Disney's market cap or XI. equity value, book value, either way. They're both similar. It's like, so you would probably take 0.001 of your net worth and give something a shot. It wouldn't even really be on your radar that kind of an investment. Well, what were they doing with the money? This is a movie that isn't even finished. Well, they had a director. They obviously had started going down the graphics, you know,

the storyline, the graphics, they said, you know what, this isn't working. I actually respect them for pulling it back when it's only $50 million in. Now I want to see it. I want to see it. I want to see the movie that they pulled that for $50 million. A trillion-dollar John Carter debacle, we certainly wouldn't want that to happen. Okay. So as a shareholder, I should feel good about the fact that they didn't waste even more money on marketing. It still begs the question. Could they make this a little cheaper, this creative, destructive process? Because when you're creating content, whether it's a book or a movie, you're

two times out of three, it's going to be a loss. But can't you keep it under $50 million before you're even in pre-production? Not at Disney. Not at Disney. Starting next week, McDonald's will start posting calorie information. on menus across the United States. Jeff, McDonald says this is going to help educate customers. It almost certainly will. Is it going to hurt sales? I don't think it'll hurt sales. I like the move. Everything in life has multiple prices and hopefully multiple benefits, but everything costs money, time, or energy. And in this case, everything

you eat has a cost beyond what you pay for. It's the number of calories. And if you eat just 100 extra calories a day, that can add up to more than you should, I mean. That can add up to 30 to 50 pounds over 20 to 30 years, making you overweight. Why are you looking at me when you said? I wasn't at all looking at you. So it is a problem in this country. Everybody knows that. And I like seeing the calorie count on there. It moves me towards a healthier choice two times out of three, and that's a good habit to form.

How crazy am I that I didn't think the calorie count was that high? I was expecting a big Mac to be way more than 550 calories, especially when they show some comparisons of some other typical kind of fast food products. It's really not that bad, dare I say. They might as well just take half a stick of butter and just slather it on to your stomach. To Ron's point, though, I was surprised, so the number one calorie item on the menu is a breakfast that includes hotcakes and a biscuit, and it's over 1,100 calories. That's a good breakfast. It's probably a tasty breakfast. But to At Ron's point, yeah, I was surprised at things that sort of sound, oh, like a mango pineapple smoothie.

Well, that's probably healthy. No, it's loaded with calories. I had one, too. I threw it away. It was 300-some calories when I saw that. But if you look at Taco Bell or even a Starbucks, one of the chocolate chip, whatever, Frappuccino-ish type things, those are crazy calories as well. So if you're going to be eating 2,000 calories a day, $550 Big Mac for lunch, maybe not ridiculous.

But I mean... Except I'm sure the fat content is probably... bad for you. It's like your finances. You shouldn't spend more than you take it. You shouldn't eat more calories than you need if you hope to be healthy. So I think we should all focus on it. Last week's show, we discussed Smith and Wesson. Got an email from Jamin and Dresen in Brookfield, Missouri, writing us about Ruger, another gunmaker. He writes, I'm a long-time shareholder. They have a great management team, generate lots of cash, no debt, and base their dividend on their quarterly results, so they aren't caught in the continuously increasing our dividend trap

that many companies are in. He goes on to write. A while back, you guys were talking about the best burgers. And one of my side businesses since we moved out of the city and returned to the family farm is raising Angus Cattle. If you'd like to try out some beef, I'm sure we could work something out. I've always wanted to check out full global headquarters. And if I were delivering beef, I could deduct the trip as a business expense.

And the website is Beefbytheside.com. I checked it out. We might have to place an order. Oh, yes, we may. All right. Coming up, technology writer Charles Arthur weighs in on the biggest threat to Apple and the biggest opportunity for Google. Stay right here. This is Motley Fool Money.

Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Chris Hill. We are only halfway through September, and already we've had some of the biggest technology companies unveiling new products. And here to help us sort through it all is Charles Arthur. He's the technology editor of the Guardian newspaper. He's also the author of Digital Wars, Apple, Google, Microsoft, and the Battle for the, internet. Charles, thanks for being here. Pleasure.

I want to get to your book in just a minute, but first, let's talk about Apple's big event earlier this week. They unveiled the iPhone 5. What did you think? The interesting thing about it was that so much was known already. So, you know, I had been able to start to activate it. Various details about it. Pretty much everything felt as though it was known already. And for surprise, what event in London where they showed a live stream of my job, a lot of smartphones. What do you think is the biggest threat to Apple when it comes to smartphones? Let's talk about your book, because you cover this fascinating period in business history,

starting in 1998 through the next really 12 to 14 years. And for, you know, for people who don't remember back in 1998, Microsoft was a gigantic company. It's on its way to becoming the most valuable. public company in the world. Google is truly in its infancy, and Apple is just trying to rebuild itself. Through all of your interviews, I know you talked with people at the different companies and just all of your research, when you look over this period of time and the shifting landscapes and fortunes for each one of these companies, what surprised you the most? In 1999, it carried through an operating systems company that the judge delivered.

celebrations, that was overturned on appeal. But Microsoft had to work very hard. You're listening to Motley Full Money talking with Charles Arthur. He's the author of the book, Digital Wars, Apple, Google, Microsoft, and the battle for the internet. As investors, we often look at companies in terms of their opportunities and the threats that they face. When you look at a company like Google, having done the research you've done, where do you think it stands now in terms of the biggest opportunity it has in front of it and the biggest threat it faces? The biggest opportunity, I think, for Google actually lies in places. But actually, Android is not really a money spinner.

The figures that came out from the Oracle Google trial earlier this year show that generate very much in the way of money for Google. It's basically a defensive move which keeps Microsoft away from the search market on mobile because otherwise Microsoft might have bought its way onto every browser on every mobile phone on the planet. I think that actual for Google lies in things like self-driving cars. If you have Google software driving self-driving cars and if auto makers take that up, that's a huge amount of money for them. The licensing, the technology, I think that there's gigantic potential. Those are the things like I mentioned Google Glass earlier. We're actually focusing

too hard on what Google does now. A great page and Sergei Bryn, leverage IQ. But funding all of those opportunities is the cash cow that is search for Google. That's really the money, as you say, that's the money spinner for Google. In terms of search, is there a big threat out there? Or is Google in the position that Microsoft was when you started your book where essentially the biggest threat to Google is itself because it can't allow itself to become so dominant that the U.S. Justice Department decides it's time to break it up because they are so dominant in search? In particular threats to organize, they're certain going to change them and how signal. I think that's that.

You're listening to Motley Full Money, talking with Charles Arthur, technology editor at the Guardian newspaper, and author of the book, Digital Wars, Apple, Google, Microsoft, and the battle for the internet. I have to ask because, obviously, here in America, we're focused mainly on our own company, or our own country, I should say. But from where you sit, what is a technology that's really taken hold in Europe that you think has big potential here in the United States? The technology that's really been overlooked, which hasn't caught on in the States, is actually high fuel economy cars. The Fiat 500 that goes over here in Europe, in the UK particularly, I think that... I saw an interview you gave a couple of... a couple of months ago, and you said that the last piece of technology that made you say, wow, was Siri. And I'm wondering if that is still the case, or if you've seen anything in the

last month or so, whether it's a gadget or an app, just is there any sort of emerging technology that may not be on a lot of people's radar that you're particularly excited about? I find it gets better and better. I've been, you know, recently I've been using an iPhone. I use all sorts of different phones. I use Android. I use Windows phone. I use iPhone. So recently I've been using iPhone and discovering that with Siri can do, send it as a text message.

Or if they're on an iPhone as well, then I'll send it. We will wrap up with a round of Buyseller Hold. Apple is reportedly planning on launching a new music service. So Buy Cellar Hold, the future of the online music service, Pandora. Hold. Pandora is pretty interesting because they have a lot of things. They've got a lot of competition from people like Spotify, and if Apple gets in their loyal user base, and I think that they You and I are both on Twitter, although I should point out for our listeners that Charles has about 80 times the number of followers I do, and that's appropriate, I think. Buy seller hold the likelihood

that Twitter will get acquired in the next two years. If executive is really determined to monetize it, to make money out of it. it. The venture capitalists who put money into it, they wouldn't see the money returned. They'd also find that company would buy it. Why? And I think it's very... They have their fans and their detractors, buy-seller hold, cold play. The Paralympics closing ceremony, I would say, I would say buy. They were absolutely fantastic. I haven't particularly liked the last couple of albums, but as a stadium band. Fair enough. And finally, he just began a four-month tour.

of duty in Afghanistan as a gunner on an Apache helicopter. But prior to that, he stirred up a little controversy over his recent escapades in Las Vegas by seller hold Prince Harry. Harry is interesting character. He's actually a hold because you should have already bought him long ago. So I would say hold on Harry. You think Harry has a high valuation right now? He should have a high valuation. You know, people have the people watching. He's one of the world family members to watch at any time. He is the technology editor of the Guardian newspaper, and his book is Digital Wars, Apple, Google, Microsoft,

and the Battle for the Internet. Charles Arthur, thanks so much for being here. My pleasure, thank you. Coming up, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar. This is Motley Fool Money. Money, money, money, money, money. Can you use any money today? As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about,

and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy ourselves stocks based solely on what you're here. I'm Chris Hill, joining me in studio. Once again, Joe Maeger, Jeff Fisher, and Ron Gross. Guys, that time, once again, time for the stocks that are on our radar. And Ron Gross, you are up first. We're going to bring in our man Steve at the end to basically pick a winner. Keep us honest?

Keep you honest. Which one he likes the best? You're up first. Sounds good. So this is truly a radar stock, not a recommendation, but it's Chipotle. CMG. At $338 a share, it's off about 25% from its 52-week high. unfortunately has bounced off its bottom. But could be interesting. Fantasticly run company.

Really profitable. Balance sheets great. Plenty of growth runway still with Chipotle, opening up only their second store soon of the new shophouse concept, the Asian concept. So if you believe in the growth of that, this could be a really interesting price to enter. And a tasty product. We're fans of the product. Jeff Fisher, what's your stock? We must be hungry. I'm going with Chipotle's father company. McDonald's MCD is the ticker. 3% yield trades at 15 times forward earnings. And who would have thought 5, 10 years ago, McDonald's would put calories on their menus or have salads or some healthy offerings? I think they're doing a lot of things right. Same store sales are up more than 3%. The recent month

in the market is unhappy about that. But that's still a good number. And shares have come down a bit this year due to Europe and other softness. And I think it may be a good price. Keeping in mind, as we discussed earlier, the calories now being on the menu, how does that going to affect you personally when you go into McDonald's? Well, I almost never eat there, but I'm flexible-minded enough to see an investment opportunity here. Joe, what about you? I love that line of thinking, Jeff. I'm going to go with Discover Financial Services.

It's kind of the red-headed stepchild of credit cards, but it's come on strong in the last few years. You can now pay with Discover in 40 percent more places than you could five years ago, which is a huge leap forward, and they're getting more of the revenue from fees than they used to, which is nice because the fees are higher margin and they're recurring, lower risk. I don't own it, but I think it's interesting. And the ticker symbol? Steve Broido, what do you think? Three different stocks there. You got one that you're particularly intrigued by?

Well, full disclosure, I do own Chipotle now. I think McDonald's sounds the most intriguing to me as a future investment. I think this calorie count thing is going to have a really big effect on the business, and I think in a positive way. Do you eat a McDonald's? I do. Do you eat at Chipotle? I do.

Which do you prefer? I think it depends on how late I'm running. All right. Ron Gross, Jeff Fisher, Joe Maker. Guys, thanks for being here. Thanks to our special guests this week. Charles Arthur Technology Editor at the Guardian newspaper. That's it for this edition of Motley Fool Money.

Be sure to check out Worldwide Invest Better Day. That's September 25th. More information online at investbetterday.com. Our engineer is Steve Broido. Our producer is Matt Greer. I'm Chris Hill. Thanks for listening. We will see you next week.