Motley Fool Money - Musk Applies For New Job

Episode Date: February 12, 2025

Now he wants to run OpenAI. (00:21) Jason Moser and Mary Long discuss: - Elon Musk’s bid for OpenAI - What BYD’s rollout of self-driving technology means for Tesla - Revitalized interest in Upstart’s AI lending platform - Developments in the buy now, pay later space Then, (17:39), Anand Chokkavelu hosts Fool contributors Jason Hall and Rick Munarriz for a Scoreboard episode breaking down Trex, the composite decking company. To become a premium Motley Fool member and gain access to all Scoreboard episodes, go to www.fool.com/signup. Companies mentioned: MSFT, TSLA, BYD, UPST, JPM, AFRM, FIS, TREX Host: Mary Long Guests: Jason Moser, Anand Chokkavelu, Jason Hall, Rick Munarriz Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Dan Boyd, Michael Schweitzer Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Elon wants another project. You're listening to Motleyful Money. I'm Mary Long, joined today by Jason Moser. Jamo, always a pleasure to have you here. Mary, thanks so much for having me. Another day, and we have before us another Elon Musk-related news item. The world's richest man made an unsolicited offer yesterday to buy OpenAI for 97.4 billion bucks. Altman rejected it on X. The two kind of had a war of words play out on the social platform. I think that there is an interesting thought experiment attached to this story, so maybe we'll start there. Open AI notoriously has a pretty wacky business structure. It's got a non-profit arm, some for-profit operations. It does eventually want to transition to being a fully for-profit company, but it's not yet

there. And this is where the thought experiment comes in. The board of a publicly traded company has an obligation to shareholders. That responsibility is a lot murkier when you've got a setup like that which Open AI has. To whom is the board of Open AI responsible? Well, that I think is a good question. So I dug in a little bit and according to the National Council of Nonprofits, all right? So we're getting this right from the source. Board members are the fiduciaries who steer the organization towards a sustainable future by adopting sound ethical and legal governance and financial management policies, as well as by making sure the nonprofit has adequate resources to advance. its mission. And so ultimately, that is the role of the board plays in regard to a nonprofit. And I think

it's also interesting to note that the vast majority of board members for charitable nonprofits actually serve as volunteers without any compensation whatsoever. But ultimately, they are there to provide foresight, oversight, and insight, and help guide the nonprofit along this way. We can take Musk out of the equation for just the briefest of moments. And focus on Microsoft because that's the publicly traded company that's attached to OpenAI, and it currently has a 49% ownership stake in OpenAI. It's also got a commercial license to distribute its products. Again, we'll take Musk out of the equation and kind of continue on a different thought experiment if OpenAI were to be sold to some entity. So again,

for the sake of this, not Musk, but some entity. What does that actually mean for Microsoft? So as it stands right now, Microsoft and OpenAI, they have a contract that goes through 2030. And so my suspicion is that that would be a part of negotiating whatever deal, whatever ultimately come up. But ultimately, they have revenue-sharing agreements that actually flow both ways, right? It's not just one company benefiting from the other. I mean, they both continue to benefit from each other. I think in regard to Microsoft today, when you think about Microsoft is $250 billion-plus dollars, revenue that they bring in annually.

And you think of Open AI, what? I mean, generating somewhere in the neighborhood of $4 billion annually right now and losing money on that revenue that they're bringing in. So it's not something that makes a big dent in Microsoft's business today, but I think you have to think about the follow-on impacts, right? Ultimately, where AI is going to take us, the impacts that it's going to have on how we're doing so many different things. And that, it's a little bit more difficult to quantify today,

but that really, I think, speaks to why Microsoft is so focused on maintaining that relationship with OpenAI. The other publicly traded company that is more implicitly involved here, really only because of its connection to Elon Musk, is Tesla. A common refrain during the 2022 Twitter X-purchase roller coaster, if you recall that, was that Tesla shareholders ought to want Musk to focus on Tesla, not another company, not these other distractions. It's 2025 now, and Musk has a lot more than just X as an extracurricular activity on his plate. If you're a Tesla shareholder, are you rooting for or against Musk's new business pursuits, including potentially an open AI takeover?

So I'm not a Tesla shareholder. It's not really something I've ever been fully compelled by. I think to Musk, I mean, he's a pretty amazing human being, right? It does seem like he's doing all sorts of different things. If I were a Tesla shareholder, I would absolutely be concerned with how thin he's spreading himself. Now, with that said, it also feels like we've been talking about this for many, many years, and he still continues to make it work. So, I think, you know, you got some people that have hobbies.

Mary, I like to paint. I like to play golf. You know, I've got music. Other people, you know, their hobby is just more work. And I think in Musk's case, his hobby is just more work. So I don't know that I necessarily would hold that against him. But that that single point of failure that spreading yourself too thin risk is, it seems like it's just going to perpetually be there in regard to him in his ventures.

I'll take this as an opportunity while we're kind of on this Tesla point to, highlight Chinese automaker B-Y-D. They announced earlier this week that it would be rolling out, this name is kind of freaky to me, so bear with me, but God's Eye technology, and that'll be available for free in all of its vehicles, even its budget models. Basically, what God's Eye does in this context is enable autonomous driving on roads, and it also allows drivers, though maybe the proper term for them in this case would be riders to use their smartphones to park remotely. BYD also announced that it's planning to integrate DeepSeek, you remember them, software, into their cars as well. If you're a Tesla employee today and you're kind of waking up to all this news that's out about BYD earlier this week,

what do you make of that? I think that in regard to full self-driving and the technology that BYD is putting out there, it's amazing technology. I think we all agree that we're headed towards that idea of automation. And when you think of Tesla, I mean, Musk has been very clear on earnings calls. You need to think, like, automation is the future, right, for that business. In regard to BID specifically, I have a hard time seeing that really getting beyond their domestic market. I mean, certainly spur more competition and ultimately improve that technology. I don't know that I would be too terribly worried about it in regard to Tesla today, but certainly something to keep an eye on.

We'll move on to another story, this one on a company that just reported its earnings yesterday and saw a big spike in its stock as a result. That company is Upstart. But before we dive into what caused a spike and what those earnings actually were, I'm going to ask you something that I promise is not a trick question. Once upon a time when Upstart was near its peak of like $390 a share in late 2021, there was an investor interviewed on CNBC who was asked the very simple question of what does this company do? And he infamously stammered and could not fully answer the question. So, I promise you, it's not a trick. But I'm going to turn that exact same question to you. What is it that Upstart does?

Well, I just went to the source here for this. So, I mean, Upstart is an AI-powered lending marketplace. It connects consumers to banks and credit unions that use Upstarts AI models into lending software in order to be able to deliver credit products, right? And so, I mean, if you're thinking of things like personal loans, There's automotive, the retail refinance loans. It's home equity lines of credit, small dollar loans. And revenue is primarily comprised of fees paid to Upstart by their lending partners in institutional investors. AI lending is a phrase that feels pretty buzzworthy to me. But the results that Upstart posted the other day put some numbers behind a buzzworthy topic. Again, stocks up almost 30% this morning,

After strong Q4 earnings, some highlights from that report, fourth quarter revenue up 56% to $219 million. They posted a gap loss, but it is making impressive progress towards profitability. They shrunk operating loss by 22% cut their gap loss in half over the course of a year. Also, bringing in new capital commitments from some lending partners that total $1.3 billion in the past fiscal year. That kind of demonstrates, okay, there's lender demand for the product. They trust the Upstart platform. What are these results, whether it's what I just mentioned or something else from the report, what does that tell you about Upstarts long-term story?

I think you used an important word there that is central to what Upstart needs to do to continue to succeed. That is trust. You said the word trust, and I think that's something that it's customers, right, and consumers that use those products, trust what Upstart is doing. And the more that you build that level of trust, the more people will come back to continue using your services. And I think one of the more impressive metrics I saw from this quarter, the conversion rate, was 19.3%. That's customers ultimately getting their loans. I mean, it was 19.3% this quarter.

That was up from 11.6% from a year ago. So significantly improved conversion. You mentioned the word trust there. I think that that really kind of flows into that optimistic guidance that they gave for the full year. And it's clearly got the market excited about the stop. Once upon a time in late 2021, shares of Upstart peaked at $390. Today, even after this 30% bump, they trade closer to $85. So let's do some expectation setting.

You mentioned the importance of trust and that to continue to improve and grow, Upstart needs to continue to build that trust with its lenders. What specifically can Upstart do to deliver the value that investors once saw in it? Clearly, they continue to see value ahead, but it's not quite at that $390 a share point. So what's the path to get back there, if it exists at all? Yeah, there was some unbridled enthusiasm there in regards to the stock. And I mean, that wasn't an upstart specific thing. I mean, I think it was one of those many companies that Just a lot of people kind of got a little bit ahead of themselves on that one. But I think that with Upstart, I think it can get back there one day.

I mean, it's something that would probably take a lot of time. But I think for me, when I look at Upstart, the interesting thing is the market opportunity. Look at this personal loan market. I mean, they estimated around $155 billion in total addressable market, where as Upstarts annualized volume, there is around $8 billion based on these numbers. I think they're big opportunities in regard to auto loans. in home equity lines of credit. They've seen tremendous growth, but still represent a very, very small part of Upstarts overall business. I mean, you look at auto loans, it's somewhere in $675 billion range.

U.S. homeowners have $35 trillion in home equity. I mean, there is a lot of opportunity for them to tap. So I think if they keep on doing what they're doing, they continue to build that trust and build out ancillary services and products for their consumers. I think chances are good. They'll get back there one day. But there are still a lot of folks who are betting against the stock. Do want to note that more than 20% of the float is short interest at Upstart. How does that affect how foolish investors ought to think about this stock? I think that's a really good point there. Short squeezes are always something that can create

some value in the near term, right? When they start putting out good results and those shorts need to close their positions, and it just creates a lot of upward pressure on the price. That's temporary nature, but I think when you look at short interest, it's worth paying attention to that number as time goes on. If that number starts coming down consistently, it absolutely can imply more optimism regarding the actual outlook for the business and the perspective that investors are taking. So definitely keeping an eye on that number over longer periods of time, I think, can be a good indicator.

We'll move on to a story that I'm sure caught your attention, because I know that I know know you follow this industry very closely. We got some news in the buy now pay later market. J.P. Morgan struck a deal with Klarna. That's the Swedish buy now pay later provider. Basically, the crux of this deal is that JP Morgan's payments platform will now include Klarna services. Jamah, what do you make of this? This is a better deal for Klarna for JP Morgan. Good for both of them. What do you think in? I think it's good for both, but I think this is far, far and away a much bigger deal for Klarna. You consider the fact that JP Morgan payments processes more than $2 trillion in payment transactions annually.

I mean, this is a real opportunity for Klarna. So I think it's always nice to see smaller companies that are kind of trying to find their way. When they plug into these big networks, then we need to really see what they're capable of. So I'm going to be fascinated to see how this works. In an interview with Bloomberg in announcing this deal, the Klarna CEO said, we are a bank. So this is the natural evolution. That stuck out to me because I don't typically think of Klarna as a bank, though, I suppose, technically they are. They've offered savings accounts in Germany since 2021.

They just rolled that out to U.S. customers last summer. What makes Klarna different than a traditional bank? There are some differences there. I think you look at traditional banks. They focus heavily on things like deposit accounts and loans. Klarna's main focus is providing convenient ways for consumers to pay, right? Mostly through that buy now pay later option. The business models are a little bit different. You see banks typically make their money through. interest on loans and fees. Klarna typically generates revenue from merchant fees when customers actually use those BNPL options. There are some interest dynamics to the business model as well.

And then I think also, just in regard to customer relationships, traditional banks really try to really in for the long haul, right? I mean, we talked before about how difficult it is to switch banking relationships, because you get so many things going through those accounts. It becomes just a lot more work than it's typically worth. And with Klarna, it's much more transactional, right? It is absolutely more transactional and focused on specific purchases and payment plans. And I think that's interesting, too, because it gives them a lot of data regarding consumer behavior

in what consumers are purchasing and what they might purchase in the future. Klarna has a competitor, a firm that's publicly traded, available in public markets. This is a buy-now pay later company that increasingly is focusing on expanding its debit card offering. In fact, it announced just the other day a deal of its own with a fintech company, FIS. That'll be an attempt to bring even more users to the Affirm card and the Affirm network. Why is a firm focusing on debit so much? Ultimately, it's a way for them to expand the relationship, to grow the relationship

with their customers. And kind of going back to what we were just talking about in regard to being very transactional in nature, the longer term focus for the businesses to try to develop that relationship, a longer-lasting relationship with the consumer. And meeting the consumer on the consumer's terms, I think, is the easiest way to do that. We use debit cards, virtual or physical, all the time, and it gives them an opportunity to build up, going back to that word trust. All right, I think it gives them the opportunity to continue collecting more data in regard

to consumer behavior, and it absolutely can differentiate themselves from other. other Buy Now Pay later providers, right? You see them as more of a reliable, trustworthy source as they continue to expand that financial services portfolio. I know you follow this space pretty closely. Buy Now Paylater in particular is still pretty much in the beginning stages. There's not much regulation towards it in the U.S. quite yet. Klarna is allegedly gearing up for an IPO in the U.S. Again, you follow this space pretty closely. You're interested in FinTech and Buy Now Paylater. technology, what needs to be true for you to be buying Klarna shares once they're available?

I think for me, it would just, it needs to be more than a buy-and-ow-pay-later story. I mean, I think that we're seeing them planting the seeds to become more than just that. And so I'm optimistic that they will be. But for me, I would need to, I would need to really have some confidence that this is going to be something more than just a buy-and-ow-pay-later story. Jason Moser, always a pleasure to have you on. Thanks so much for joining us today on Motley Full Money. Thank you.

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That might change if you knew a bit more about the company that makes composite decking. Up next, Anin Chaka-Baloo host Fool contributors, Jason Hall and Rick Munaras for a scoreboard episode, Breaking Down, Treks. Welcome to latest Motley-Fool's scoreboard. I'm Onen Chockevall, we've got longtime fools, Jason Hall and Rick Minaras, giving a 1-10 rating to the Kleenex of alternative decking. It's Trex, ticker symbol, T-R-E-X. We'll hit the business first, rating its business, including factors like industry and competition. A 10 is invincible.

A one is hopeless. They're giving high scores. Rick's at a 9. Jason's at an 8. We'll start with Jason. Yeah, I wanted to go higher, and I can make the case for going higher. But the reason I'm dinging it is despite the fact that this is the leader in its industry, the most profitable company, has the largest market share and also still has a ton of room

to continue growing. I'm going with an eight because there is a lot of seasonality and cyclicality in the business in its industry. And because of that, it keeps it from being like the perfect kind of business with recurring steady revenues at all states. That's the only reason I'm doing it. Everything else is wonderful. Incredible culture, great leadership. They absolutely know who their customers and they know how to serve them really, really well. I went with the nine that Jason left behind. To me, it all started with a park bench made of sawdust and plastic bags. Today, Trex is the undisputed leader of composite decking. It's a win-win for a premium-price product. Environmentalists obviously enjoy that a product that consists of 95%

recyclable materials is good for the planet. And I don't mean to knock on wood, but homeowners are looking to extend their outdoor living space. They're paying more upfront for a Trex product, but they know, unlike wood that has to be maintained every year, they're having this essentially maintenance-free outdoor living space. There are cheaper options than composite decking, and even within composite deck in the track, but it's a leader, and it's seemingly the only brand in this market that's a household thing. It's made for me. Let's talk about management. A 10 is Warren Buffett. A one is Homer Simpson. Rick's at a seven. Jason's at the higher eight. Yeah, the thing that's so impressive to me about Trex is if you go from the founding of the business and into the mid-2000s,

there was a company that became very troubled. They had issues with their product. There were some big lawsuits that they dealt with. And Ron Kaplan came in and turned the business around, saved the business, and really began doing all of the things that Trekk should be able to do well and also making it incredibly profitable and a great investment at the same time. There have been three CEOs since Ron Kaplan retired. The performance of the business, like the key things that they do really well, have continued. That says a ton about the strong culture they have of finding the right people, training and empowering them, and then doing what I think is probably this, maybe the second hardest thing for a company to do behind good capital

allocation, and that's really good succession planning. It is so rare for companies to do it well over and over again. Another thing I like, too, about management is they've been willing to take some big swings to grow and expand. They haven't been successful. Like, the commercial railing business, they were in for a few years and they exited. They made an initiative to sell recycled poly pellets, like use their process to sell excess material. Neither of those panned out, but they were not business risking. They were low-risk, high-potential upside bets. That says a lot about management. They're willing to take those bets, but not risk the company when doing it. So, Brian Fairbanks, he's the latest. He's the president's CEO. He's been there

since April 2020. The stock's up about 50% since he got there. So, okay, performance. Again, I went with a seven here. So he's been at Trex for 20 years. So to me, he's been working in leadership positions across various segments of the company. I like to see that when it's an inside of the sort of had a taste of everything. The longtime CEO that he succeeded, James Klein, is still around as the board chairman. The only reason I didn't go higher is, is because Fairbanks only has a 62% CEO approval rating from employees on Glass Store, and I'd like to look a little closer into that. Financial's time.

A 10 is a fortress. A one is yikes. Both of you have an eight. Go for it, Rick. Yeah, so revenue is going to be volatile. It's a cyclical industry, but Trex is surprisingly steady on the bottom line. This is a company that's been profitable for 13 consecutive years. Net income has moved higher in all but one of those years.

And Trex, it also isn't afraid to eat its own sawdust. its diluted share count is declining for the 11th year in a row. It's reduced the share count by 20% in that time, so it's been a little nibbling, but I'd definitely like to see a company that believes in itself in that way. Yeah, it's really hard for businesses that are as seasonal as outdoor decking sales is with the cyclicality that it's hyper-focused on the housing market, which is a very cyclical market, to deliver those kind of financial results. And the keys that you look at what they do, they're rigorous about costs, managing those costs, leveraging their pricing power. Well, like, and wage, that they can to be the most profitable in their segment. They're really, really good at that.

They're also smart at managing working capital. That's like a key to getting through the seasonality of the business, using debt to manage as a big part of their working capital when they're going through inventory bill to actually selling in the spring and through the summer. It's a really smart way to kind of manage the balance sheet. And if you look at the balance sheet, it's really lean. One thing that continually grows is their inventory over the long term. they keep a minimal amount of cash because they use that revolver for their working capital, and they're pretty smart about keeping that debt paid down as low as they can and not carrying it over from year to year and increasing the expense to manage that debt.

Really, really strong financials. Management does a good job of keeping the balance sheet strong. Right, Jason. Let's move on to valuation. How well will track stock do over the next five years and how safe is it? Ten is a short thing. One's a lottery ticket. So my safety score is a seven here. I think it's relatively safe.

Again, the cyclicality and the seasonality keeps me from scoring it higher because five years is a long time. But if we're in a housing downturn in five years, that could really hyper hit this sort of stock a lot. I love the business. I'm expecting 10 to 15 percent returns, some tailwinds. Rick talked about the things with the environmentally friendly product. The tailwinds for an aging housing stock. People need to spend money to maintain and improve and replace decks. I think those things are really positive for it.

They've done an incredible job, and they continue to build a deeper and bigger distribution network, especially focused on the professionals in the decking industry. I think you put all that together, and that's where I come to that 10 to 15 and that 7 for the safety score. Yeah, I'm close. I'm at the 10 to 15% that Jason is. I went with an 8 for my safety score. So, Trex, they're coming off a rough quarter.

It reported a 23% decline in revenue in its third quarter, but that's entirely the handiwork of a $70 million, a channel inventory reduction. I like Trex over the next five years. interest rates are finally starting to move lower, and that should breathe new life into the housing market, and that's good for Trex. When there's turnover in the residential real estate market, there are people saying, you know what would really make this backyard special, and that's where Trex comes in. They have some short-term debt and some lease obligations, but it really has no long-term debt that I'm really concerned about. So I like Trex here, and I feel it's safer than people

think. Stop at time. Jason, is there a company in Trex's space you like more? Yeah, in the niche, there's not a company that I like more. Trex is the best. There's no around that. But I think investors who like Trek should look at AZAC 2. It makes Timber Tech. That's the second biggest brand in composite decking by market share and a really great product. But it also makes the AZAC brand of composite and PVC building products. Those are lower margin, but I like the diversification. And again, the aging housing stock, all of those tailwinds are really good. I've used some of the AZAC products on my own 30-year-old house. I think those are things that are really favorable for AZAC, and it should get a look, too.

Yeah, in my case, again, Trex, I love companies that have differentiated products and command premium premium prices. So I can't think of anyone better in outdoor living or flooring stock than Trex. But if I was about to use those same traits and sort of look at the real estate recovery where people are going to want to spruce up their homes and get new things because of the recovery, a company with similar traits I like is sleep number. This is the maker of the premium air chambered mattresses with adjustable firmness settings, a more volatile stock, a more riskier stock, far more highs and lows, but it also has, you know, and it lacks the bottom-line consistency that Trex has, but it has been far more aggressive in buying back in stock over the past decade.

Not the only measuring stick, obviously, but to me, I think it's, if I was going to say, well, not Trex, sleep numbers one. I think it's really been, you know, depressed for a while, and I think it could snap back with the next recovery in the real estate turnover market. So I'm one of you would mention pine trees or something like that, but I guess next time. Thank you to both Jason and Rick. X an overall score 7.8 out of 10, just short of that 8.0 that would force me to own shares. I wouldn't have been sad. It's always on my radar. Every now and then, we share scoreboard episodes on Motleyful money, but premium

motleyful members get access to all scoreboard episodes, which drop every weekday at 7 p.m. Eastern. To become a premium Motleyful member and join our flagship investing service, stock advisor, head to www.orgul.com slash sign up. I'll drop a link in the show notes. As always, people on the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and are not approved by advertisers. The Motley Fool only picks products that it would personally recommend two friends like you. For Jason Moser, Anan Chakabaloo, Jason Hall, and Rick Munares, I'm Mary Long. Thanks for listening.

We'll see you tomorrow.