Motley Fool Money - Nike, FedEx, and The Fed

Episode Date: December 21, 2022

The shipping giant has a demand problem, while Nike may be out of the woods. (0:21) Asit Sharma discusses: - FedEx cutting $1 billion in costs to make up for weak demand - UPS solidly outperforming FedEx (for years) - Nike getting past their inventory problems and increasing digital sales (10:30) John Rotonti and Ricky Mulvey analyze the implications of interest rates being higher for longer and one company that's benefiting.  Stocks mentioned: FDX, UPS, NKE, BX Holiday Music: Looks Like A Cold, Cold Winter by Ingrid Michaelson Host: Chris Hill Guests: Asit Sharma, John Rotonti Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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If you're 45 or older and at average risk, ask your health care provider about the Coligard test. Colagard is available by prescription only. Learn more or request a prescription today at colagard.com slash screen. I don't know about you, but I was today years old when I learned that Nike's original name was Blue Ribbon Sports. Motley Fool Money starts now. I'm Chris Hill joining me today. Motleyful Senior analyst, Asa Charma.

Thanks for being here. Chris, I appreciate you having me on. We will get to Nike's latest in a minute, but we're going to start with FedEx. Second quarter revenue was about a billion dollars lower than Wall Street was expecting. And coincidentally, $1 billion is. what FedEx management says they're going to cut in terms of costs. On the bright side, their profits were better than expected. But right now, Osset, it looks like FedEx has a demand problem. I think so. Chris, last quarter management wanted to blame that weak in demand on the economy

at large. And I think there's some argument to be made there that all the carriers in this space are going to grapple with weak in demand. But FedEx just seems to be giving up market share. That's what many market watchers think. I think it's what many industry analysts think. And this quarter, they sort of, you know, by upping this cost reduction program, they sort of came back to investors and said, well, we don't really know. We think it's macroeconomic. Either way, we're going to go ahead and reduce our overhead expenses to match these lower volumes. And I think investors applaud that. They're making some moves that remind me of the rail industry. You know, when you have a bunch of fixed cost, what can you do? Well, you can park planes the same

way that rail companies will park their locomotives when volumes decline. They will, you know, furlough some employees. They'll do everything in their power to sort of match that top line and be able to produce profits, free cash flow for investors. So all in all, I think this was a good report. but I hear it in your voice, Chris. I hear maybe some skepticism. Like, that's a big number. $3.7 billion is the total goal at this point. I look at the last trailing 12 months of FedEx operations. Their total operating income was $6.3 billion. So you're saying that you can add another $3.7 billion to that take home? I don't know about this. I don't either. And It seems like UPS has not just had a better year than FedEx.

They've had a better five years than FedEx. And not to say that UPS as a business and a stock is having a great 2022. It's down about 16 percent or so. FedEx is down twice that. And I'm wondering if just fundamentally, because I think about these two businesses, the way I think about Coke and Pepsi, the way I think about Home Depot and Lowe's. And fundamentally, it just seems like UPS is a better operator and has been for a while now. Be inclined to agree with you.

I'm no expert on the freight logistics air package industry, but I will say even to an armchair observer, the fact that UPS has sort of stuck to its knitting over the past several years, and just tried to optimize their operations. First is FedEx, which expanded in Europe. They've tried to expand their different modalities of transport. I think sometimes it's a virtue in just getting better. That way you already have your cost structure optimized. You don't have to come back to investors when your express is falling off and then say, look, we're going to try to operate in a more rational manner. So I would have to agree with you there. UPS, has certainly shown that it's the more consistent performer of the two. That's been highlighted

over the past few quarters in this really volatile economy that we have. Nike is ending the calendar year on a positive note. Second quarter profits were much higher than expected. Revenue look good. Inventory is up year over year, but it is down from the previous quarter. And CEO John Donahoe says Nike is past its inventory peak. And I think investors as a group believe him because shares of Nike are up more than 13% today. Yeah, shares are off to the races. And I think this only tells part of the story when we look at the fact that the inventory is down sequentially 3%. There's something else that is probably underneath this propelling both institutional investors, retail investors to buy shares today.

And that's the fact that Nike was able to generate 17% on its top line growth year over year. And you've got this equation where they're sacrificing gross margin. So gross margin was down about 3% of points to close to 43%. The sales are still growing pretty quickly. We've got the direct business. So Nike's direct-to-consumer business that has growth of 16% this quarter year-over-year. the digital business, 34% growth when you adjust for foreign currency translation. What you've got here is a company that's telling you, look, yeah, we're slashing some prices on the older

stuff. We're trying to get the inventory under control. But if you look under the hood, this business is still growing pretty quickly. And in fact, our average selling price of Nike brand products is still moving in a positive direction. When you put all those pieces together, where you're like, okay, I've got a company here which spends 8% to generate its sales. That's their demand creation expense as a percentage of sales. So, I think marketing, advertising, what they spend on endorsements. You've got a pretty good business proposition here with this hit the stock has taken this year. So I think people want to pour back into what's been a fairly stable company except for this one issue with the inventory.

I'm glad you mentioned the digital sales growth because, as you said, I mean, even with the rise today, the stock is down more than 25% year to date. But this is such a quality business. It is a premium brand. And it's not just that I look at everything that comes with this quarter and the comments from Donahoe and his team and think to myself, well, the good outweighs the bat. No, the good substantially outweighs the bat. As you said, there's some gross margin pressure that they're hitting. The inventory is still up, I think it's 43% year over year. But the trend line, when you take the trend line for the inventory, the digital sales growth, all the other factors here, combine it with the fact that the stock has been hit the way it has. It makes perfect sense that, as you said, we're seeing individual investors. and institutional investors loading up on the stock today?

Yeah, and I think there's one other thing that really jumps out at me here. When I look at this report, and that's the fact that this is still basically a footwear company. In their breakdown of divisional revenues, you see that apparel and equipment, they grew in every geography, but not like the footwear division. So, Sneakers propels this company forward if the inventory is bulked up past nine, billion bucks. So much of that is in footwear. We know it's going to sell. And the numbers also show that we'll pull back on stuff like equipment, clothes, technical apparel, but we're still going to replace our sneakers. That's what these numbers tell us. I know that sounds very basic, but sometimes

these really basic equations in a business model are what make a company like Nike great year after year after year. It's a great reminder because this is a business that has in the past expanded into other areas and not all of them have worked. I forget the exact year. I want to say it was maybe 2018, maybe it was 2017 where Nike basically said, yeah, we're going to fold up our golf line. They made a big push into golf with Tiger Woods. And ultimately, the business just didn't work for them to the point where they said, yeah, we're shutting this down. Yeah, and for them, like a small experiment, that's fine. They'll take that any day.

They've got the balance sheet. They've got the distribution. So we can expect them to push in and pull out of certain subcategories. But, again, Nike is known for its footwear. They pointed out in the earnings conference call. I think this was Donahoe, that Nike shoes with a little adjustment. to the technical specs this year in the World Cup, we're responsible for more scored goals in the World Cup versus any other sneaker. Which, you know, I read this and I'm like,

okay, corporate speak, rah, rah, celebratory, but there's something there to athletes all over the world. You can't replace the brand presence. They still exercise in the marketplace. And that's another reason why, if you're thinking, well, gee, will Nike keep going? Will it keep increasing sales year after year? The stock keep rising. There are some good reasons Why underneath there? Asa Charmer, great talking to you. Thanks for being here. Thanks so much, Chris.

It's a lot of fun. You've probably heard the phrase, don't fight the Fed, but what does that mean in action? Motley Fool senior analyst John Rotonte joined Ricky Mulvey to talk about the implications of interest rates being higher for longer and one company that's benefiting from them. Don't fight the Fed is kind of this common trope that we hear. In your view, what does it mean for an investor to fight the Fed? What's that actually mean beyond something you see on Twitter? I'm pretty sure Martin Zweig coined the term, don't fight the Fed in his very popular book, winning on Wall Street published in the early 1970s. At least I think that's

when it was published. And what it really means, Ricky, is that our economy is not as laissez-faire or free market as you may read in the textbooks. Rather, we have a manipulated interventionist economy and a primary institution doing the manipulation is the Federal Reserve. To be clear, I am not prepared to share whether I think this manipulation is positive or negative. I'm not smart enough to even determine that. I do think that our current Fed led by Chair Jerome Powell is at least now doing the right thing to get our economy back on track because it went way off the rails for a while. Zero percent interest rates is just not normal for so many reasons, some of which are that it leads to slow growth. That's number one. It zombifies the economy. That's number two.

Number three, it leads to the creation of weak business models that are very fragile. Number four, it leaves no room to decrease rates in times of a crisis. And number five, it absolutely crushes savers. It's undeniable that this manipulation is taking place. What's also undeniable, Ricky, is that at times, it contributes to the inflation of asset prices, which is bubbles. And at times, it also contributes to the misallocation of capital by keeping zombie companies alive for longer than they should be. And when you keep zombie companies alive for longer than they should be, that slows the flow of capital into other, better, more productive businesses.

What's the zombie company is, it has to do with their debt ratio, right? Yeah. Companies that have too much. debt that they can't afford and they're not making any money or they're making very little money, not enough to cover their debt service. But when interest rates are zero, you know, they're put on life support indefinitely. And that's not how free capital market should work. Free capital markets should penalize dying companies so that capital can flow to growing more productive companies that can hire more people and pay higher paying jobs and contribute to the growth of the economy. And so, some winners and some losers, at least in the short term, Ricky, are not determined by

competitive dynamics and free market forces, but rather by Fed policy. So it's this idea that investor should position their portfolios in a way and determine the amount of risk on or risk off that they want to take based on Fed policy. That's what don't fact the Fed means. Moving on to the businesses, though, like what are some examples of how businesses' decision change when the cost of capital rises like it is right now? It affects businesses in so many ways. First of all, higher interest expense, higher interest rates, all else equal leads to higher interest expense on your debt. That's an income statement line item. So that decreases earnings. When earnings decrease, all else equal valuations fall.

So that's the first thing. It affects the P&O. The second thing is when interest rates are rising, cost of capital is rising. That means the hurdle, it means two things. One, it means it's harder to get, it's more expensive to get financing to finance projects. If you want to build a new plant, you want to build a new facility, right? That's more expensive to do. So your hurdle rate to decide whether to make that investment or not is higher. And so, Ricky, we have this situation right now. You can't make this up, Ricky. We have this situation right now, okay, where The U.S. massively underinvested in infrastructure for the last, you know, 12 years, let's say since the global financial crisis. I mean, the U.S. massively underinvested in energy, in oil and gas specifically, massively.

It massively underinvested in housing. We're anywhere from four to five to seven million homes short, depending on what source you're looking at. And then we massively underinvested in infrastructure, massively. rows and bridges are crumbling before our eyes. Okay, but get this. Okay. So after a decade plus of underinvesting in infrastructure, what's going to happen now? Interest rates are going up. Cost of capital is going up. That's going to decrease investment in infrastructure even more. It's a really precarious situation that we're in, Really precarious. After 10 plus years of underinvesting in three extremely indispensable and critical parts of our economy, housing, energy, and infrastructure, after 10 plus years of underinvesting,

we're now making it more expensive to invest in those areas. I'm not saying this is right or wrong. I'm just calling it as I see it, Ricky. So when you think of a company that's not fighting the Fed, and we'll move to those trends and talk more about one of those trends in a sec, What do you think of when you think of a company that's not fighting the Fed? Non-earning, cash-burning, high-growth businesses that designed their business models to be based on stock-based compensation. Literally, they designed their business models for their main source of financing to come from their employee base through equity, issuances in the form of stock-based compensation. That is a very, very, very, very fragile business model. in a time of rising rates and increasing cost of capital. Because companies only have three sources

of capital, three and only three. Internally generated free cash flow. Well, I just said that a lot of these companies are cash burning, not generating free cash flow. So that source goes out the door. Debt is number two. Well, if you want to raise debt, it's going to be higher interest rate, which is going to be more expensive. So that's not as ideal as it was when interest rates were zero. And equity is number three. Well, higher interest rates drive down equity prices. Stocks have and crushed. So if you want to issue stock, it becomes much more expensive and much more dilutive to existing shareholders. So those companies that are not self-funding don't have any really good options. A company like Blackstone, however, has $182 billion in dry powder. So that's undrawn

capital. It's cash that they have collected from investors sitting at a fund that they have not yet invested. I can't think of a firm, including Berkshire Hathaway and Alphabet, that has more capital available to invest countercyclically in distressed assets in a downturn, right? So I can't think of a company better position to deploy large amounts of capital in a downturn, to plant the seeds for higher growth and even higher returns coming out of a downturn than really well-run alternative asset managers like Blackstone. I just said that blacks, I just said that we have massive underinvestment an infrastructure in this country. Well, guess what? Blackstone has a massive infrastructure infrastructure business. So when all these assets go on sale, Blackstone's going to be there to scoop

them up. Blackstone has the largest real estate business in the world. Real estate, which we can get into is an excellent place to be in a time of high inflation and rising interest rates. Contrary to what some people may think, it's a very, very good place to be. Let's get into real estate. Let's talk. Because home builders is one where one might think that they're fighting the Fed? Or did you have a point you wanted to wrap up on before we moved on? No, we can talk about real estate and home builders in the same vein. So the real estate that Blackstone owns, Ricky, is, first of all, it's in great areas in the Sun Belt, Texas and Florida. 75% of their real estate is in Texas and Florida. And 75% of their real estate is rental housing,

logistic warehouses, really for e-commerce deliveries. Okay. The So that's 75% of the real estate portfolio. That real estate is not only in places in the Sun Belt with great population inflows and good demographics and good growth, but these are short duration leases. So they can reprice them higher, and that gives them pricing power. So housing is typically rented for one year. So they can reprise their housing every year. Warehouses and logistics, they start with three to five year initial terms.

okay but then those also after the three to five year initial term those reprice yearly as well so they can increase prices in their warehouse portfolio yearly importantly blackstone has disclosed that their warehouses and their residential leases are well below market rates so those are going to reprice significantly higher they have pent up pricing power in their rental housing portfolio and in their logistics portfolio. They also own, and I'll get to housing in a second, they also own hotels. Guess what? They own the Bellagio and the Cosmo in Vegas, for example. Hotels repriced nightly. And so Blackstone's real estate portfolio has the ability to re-rent higher very quickly. And that gives them pricing power. The other thing with real estate is, in a high inflation

environment like we're in now, the replacement cost to build a brand new competing property from scratch is much higher because the input costs to build that piece of property is much higher. And so existing properties become more attractive than become more valued. So, yeah, Blackstone's a great place to bay. Real estate's a great place to be. Oh, before we go into housing, Blackstone also has a credit business. 90%, 90% of that is floating rate debt, which means it floats higher, adjust higher, when it's rates go up, which means investors in Blackstone's credit funds actually make more money when rates go up. So, yeah, Blackstone would be my answer. Look, housing in the, you know, I was talking

about rental housing with Blackstone, but home builders, Ricky. So we need to take a step back. It's really, really important to understand what the Fed is doing. It's also kind of fascinating, right? So what the Fed is doing is the Fed needs to decrease the wealth effect. It needs to decrease the wealth effect because when people feel less wealthy, they may decide to buy fewer goods and services. And when they decide to buy fewer goods and services, that drives down demand for goods and services. And when demand for goods and services goes down, that drives down prices. And when prices goes down, that helps to bring down inflation.

So what the Fed has to do is decrease how wealthy people feel. Well, why do you think they started with housing, Ricky? two reasons, two really important reasons. The Fed wanted, let's make no mistakes about it, the Fed wanted to crush the housing market. One reason is because it's a low-hanging fruit. Why? Because people buy their houses with debt. They take out a mortgage. They use leverage. And those mortgages are driven by interest rates. So housing is very interest rate sensitive. So that was low-hanging fruit. The other reason is if you want to make people feel less wealthy, go after their largest financial asset. For the vast majority of people in the U.S., their home is their largest financial asset.

So it is no surprise that the Fed crushed housing. I mean, that's just textbook 101, how to bring down inflation. What's the next big ticket item, Ricky? The next big ticket item, high price item that is interest rate sensitive, that people use debts. Well, cars first. You're all your cars. What happened to cars? Cars got crushed, right? Use car prices shot up, and now they've fallen back down and then stocks. You're exactly right. If you want to bring down household net worth, you want to let people, you want to make people feel less wealthy, you go after the stock market. So those are the tools that Fed has. It's not that they want to go after the stock market. It's just that when rates go up, stocks go down. Why? It's very simple because you can think about it in two ways.

One is when bond rates go up, investors will sell stocks to get higher equity-like returns from bonds, but with taking less risk. So you can get less risk, higher return from a bond, you sell stocks. That's one way to think about it. The other way to think about it is when interest rates go up, the cost of capital goes up. When the cost of capital goes up, the discount rate in your discounted cash flow model goes up. When the discounted rate in the discounted cash flow model goes up, the present value of future free cash flow goes down. And when the value of free cash flow goes down, the value of the business goes down. When the value of the business goes down, stocks fall.

So that's what's happening. Now, we talked about why the Fed went after housing. Let's talk about housing. We underbuilt coming out of the global financial crisis. I don't know if it's Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae. I get them confused. But one of them estimated we're 3.7 million homes short of where we need to be to meet household formation, to meet demand.

Other industry specific, like the real estate association, and other home builders association have estimated we're as much as six or seven millions homes short of where we need to be. So anywhere from four to seven million's home short, based on current build rates, that'll take us like five to seven years to build. We are dramatically under-homed in the U.S. We have dramatic underdevelopment. So right now, home prices are getting crushed, but I think long-term, home builders are one of the three most attractive industries, in my opinion, because of the massive underinvestment.

If you read the Marathon Asset Management Investor letters, they talk a lot about the capital cycle and how almost all industries go through a capital cycle. And you don't want to invest when everyone is plowing money into an industry like we saw with software. That's not when you want to invest. Returns don't come from where capital is plentiful. Returns come from where capital is scarce. And home builders is capital is scarce. We under built, we underdeveloped for a decade plus. We are undercapacity.

We are underutilized. And so we have to rectify that, especially when the largest age cohort in U.S. history, millennials, are in their prime home buying years. And so at the same time when you have less homes than we need to meet demand is at the exact same time when demand for households, demand for homes is going to go up. And so I think in the next 10 years, even shorter than that, I think in the next five to seven years, Home Builders, is an excellent place to be. And I've put my money there. I own two Pure Play Home Builders in the portfolio that I lead for the Motley Fool. John Rotanti, I think we have a lot more to talk about,

but unfortunately, we are at time. Always good chatting with you. Thank you, Ricky. Thanks, Fools. It looks like a cold, cold winter. Plenty of ice and snow. But we'll keep the love light in our heart to go. Looks like a long. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

I'm Chris Hill. listening. We'll see you tomorrow.