Motley Fool Money - Oh, Canada!

Episode Date: December 9, 2023

Get in, Fools! We’re going to Canada. Nick Sciple and Jim Gillies, both analysts for The Motley Fool Canada, caught up to talk about the macro environment in America’s Northern Neighbor and opportunities investors can find in a messy housing market. They also discuss: The deceptive nature of “static” mortgages 6 bank stocks that are long-term, growing winners And a company that “specializes in the absurd”  Tickers discussed: CM, BNS, TD, RY, BMO, TSX:NA, BB, SHOP,  TSX: CSU, TSX: ATD, TSX: SJ Host: Nick Sciple Guest: Jim Gillies Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Tim Sparks Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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banks are hunkering down. They are preparing for loans to go bad. And this all sounds bad, but I'm going to take another mongerism here. And I'm going to go invert. Always invert. You want to be a buyer of these types of assets when things look bad. I'm Mary Long and that's Jim Gillies, a senior analyst for Motley Fool, Canada. Today, we're hitting the road and putting the spotlight on Canada to get a sense of what investment opportunities exist in America's northern neighbor. Nick Seiple, another analyst for the Fool's Canadian service, caught up with Jim in late November. They discuss how to find upside in a messy housing market, accidental tech companies, and a quality business that specializes in the absurd. Let's set the stage. Most of our listeners here today are going to be American listeners on Motley Fool. Money, how do you compare and contrast the Canadian economy with the U.S. economy? Our listeners are probably more familiar with.

Sure. Thanks, Nick. The real quick rule of thumb is we're generally a lot of. about a tenth of your size. Pick any metric you want, GDP, population, you know, whatever. We're generally about one-tenth your size. And so, you know, that, you know, we are the size population-wise of one of your larger states. Okay. And, you know, we are, we are rich in landmass, but we tend to cluster a lot. We tend to, I believe it's about 90% of our people, myself included, live within 150 miles of the US border or 240 kilometers, if you prefer.

We go to McDonald's as much as you do kind of thing. We watch the same movies, have the same pop culture, yada, yada, yada. Where we differ though is our economy is very tied to a few specific things that tend to go boom or bust. We don't have much of a tech sector, frankly. And even when we have had a tech sector, Koff Koff Nortel Networks, research in motion, that also kind of favors the bus side of things. But we tend to be very focused on finance, so big banks, life insurance companies, that sort of thing.

We tend to be very focused on resources. You may have heard Alberta, one of our Western provinces has the largest oil reserves in the world, yes, more than Saudi Arabia. It just tends to be in very thick, black, goopy bitumen and not in very easy to access S light sweet crude. So we have that kind of exposure to resource prices that can sometimes be a bit of a feast or famine up here. And then finally, and I think this is where we're probably going to take the conversation, Canadians kind of fell in love with housing. Round about the time you all did in the early part of the 2000s. The key difference is you had your come

to rationality moment somewhat forced upon you in 2008, 2009. And Canadians as a collective kind of went the other direction and put their foot down on the accelerator. And so we're kind of facing some problems today that my American friends are probably already more than familiar with. Yeah, lots of similarities between the U.S. and Canada. Some real key differences. And one of those key differences we'll talk about here in the Canadian real estate market. If you pay really any attention to the Canadian economy, it's very clear. Canadians have real estate anxiety when you compare how sales.

hold income in Canada to housing costs. They're at their highest level since the 1980s. Many folks worry that it could hurt the economy. You talked also about real concentrations of folks in some of these a few handful of cities. Really, there's not a lot of options to move into other places. Jim, what has caused this housing mess in Canada? Boy, how long do we got? Well, I'm going to start with the premise that much like our American

cousins in the kind of the early part of the 2000s, we kind of bought the line, or I'll say collectively the country, we kind of bought the line that house prices only go up. You can't lose money if you own a house. And so, and there's kind of a bit of a propensity to pay any price. So once you have that mindset, you start to make an, you know, that's the seeds of FOMO or fear of missing out. And you start to have that plying on people's thought processes. And look, when house prices are going up, everything's great.

You feel richer. Maybe you spend a little more. So that goes into the economy. Maybe that spending is financed by your borrowings on your Helock, for example, on your home. But there's kind of that mentality, certainly during COVID as well. It was already nascent before that. House prices were rich before COVID. And then COVID just touched the match off, unfortunately.

So, so there's kind of that one, so that's one of the drivers. But then as we've kind of come through COVID, we're now on the other side of it, and you're talking about Dorell in the economy, I mean, the first thing I would say is interest rates have, you know, done Canadian housing, no favors. And this is not something that Americans really understand because I like to tweak my American friends and I like to say how, you know, it's so nice that you guys look at you guys. live in a socialist country where you have 30-year mortgages, but the rest of the world is not like that, where we have governments standing behind our mortgages.

So, Canadians, for example, have to reset or renegotiate their mortgage. Generally every five years, you can get a one-year mortgage. You can get a 10-year mortgage rates differ. Most people do five-year increments. That's a way of the banks kind of sloughing off some of the interest rate risk onto citizens. Now, of course, if interest rates go down in your five-year mortgage, you can renew for your next five years. Most houses are at a 25-year amortization. So, if you're your basic standard Canadian, you're going to do five-year mortgages over 25 years, no extra payments,

and that's when you pay it off. But you are going to carry some of that interest rate risk. The other thing that has come up is, and again, stop me Americans, if you've heard this one before, you have seen the rise of what I'm going to call exotic mortgages. What that means here in Canada is you generally used to have kind of a choice between a fixed rate mortgage or a variable rate mortgage. And the old bog standard variable rate mortgage would be like, you know, if the central bank raised interest rates, your mortgage payment would go up that next payment date. If they lowered interest rates, your payment would go down. The problem is the innovation, I should probably do air quotes around the word innovation.

The innovation a few years ago was that four of the big six banks introduced a new product, which I'm going to call a static payment variable rate mortgage. That means when interest rates move, your payment stays the same. That's the whole static payment thing. The problem is mortgage math is actually deceptively easy. There's basically three inputs into determining your payment, the amount you borrow, the interest rate, and the amortization period. Well, the amount you borrow is kind of, you know that up front, so we're done there. And we're going to hold the payment steady, right? That's a whole static payment thing.

So when interest rates go up, the only thing that can move is amortization. In other words, the length of time your mortgages. And that also shifts the balance of how much of your payments going to principal and how much is going to interest. And we have just lived through a year and a half of the interest rate going up 1,900 percent. from 25 basis points, the key Fed rate, to five percentage points. So 25 basis points, five percentage points. When you tell people, interest rates have gone up 1,900 percent, you know, their eyes will glaze over.

But what that's done on these static payment variable rate mortgages, it has exploded the amortization period out now. So you can go to the four of the big six banks here in Canada that offer that type of product and you're now seeing 30 and 40 percent of mortgages with over 30 years of amortization, quite often over 40 years of amortization. That is putting a lot of stress on people, but they're not yet feeling it because their payment hasn't changed, the whole static payment thing. And the static payment, as they start renewing, remember, you need to renew every five years,

as you renew your payment. If you overpaid for a house, you chased a house in any price because of course, house prices only go up. They never go down, as was the thinking. How enthused are you five years after you bought? Let's say you bought in 2019. So it's going to be 2024 coming up. How enthused are you to hear that your monthly payment could go up 30, 40, 50 percent even? Can your household budget sustain that? And I think what's dawning on a lot of Canadians is that a lot of household budgets won't sustain that. And the key. The cure for that is for house prices to fall.

But for everybody who maybe doesn't have a mortgage and is living in their house, that's fine. People who bought a house within the last five years, who stretched to pay up, who took a variable rate static payment mortgage because the rate was lower, and that means that they could buy more house. Those people, their budgets are going to be imploded. A non-zero number of them are going to lose their houses. Then, go back and look at what happened to the US in 2007 through 2009. That is the single biggest problem right now in the Canadian mortgage market.

The other thing is a lot of people, much like the US, a lot of people are sitting on mortgage rates of one and a half to two and a half percent. They're like, well, we don't want to sell or move because we'll be renewing or the new house. We'll be at mortgage, it'll be at 6 percent, 6 and 1 half, 5 and a half, whatever. That will again, again, jack the price up. So, people are sitting. So, a lot of these things, there's not a lot of supply. And then as well, too, we do have a supply issue in Canada. The supply issue is a housing supply. That issue is tied to

the fact that we're at record immigration. People have got to live somewhere. We have a non-zero number of housing units, particularly condos, essentially coming onto the market as Airbnbs or short-term rentals. And then as well, development costs. We are on pace this year, 2023, even though we have the supply issue, we are in pace to deliver less housing units than we delivered last year because, dirty little secret, higher interest rates, most development is also interest-fueled or it's financed. Their costs of development has gone up. We've had inflation, particularly wage inflation. The trades have done very, very well, but the cost to develop homes has been very expensive. Various cities have laid on more and more, and

Development charges, which the builders, of course, are happy to pass along to citizens buying their homes. Throughout the whole chain, owning a house has become economically for new buyers, at least, it has become, if not economically impossible, at least economically not a great idea, because you will be basically servicing your loan for 30, 40, 50 years, given the way that the amortizations have gone. And it's going to take more and more of your paycheck. So it's house prices probably have to come down. They have been coming down since the February 2020-2 peak, but then that of course introduces a whole other set of issues, not the least of which is if you felt wealthier as your house price expanded, guess what you feel as your

house price shrinks. Jim, we've talked about a lot of the risks maybe being created in the Canadian real estate market. But are there any opportunities that you see or companies or banks perhaps that could emerge from this stronger than others? Sure. Okay. Yeah. I mean, this has all been dour and sour and terrible and why would you want to come here? I'm generally one of the most positive people you'll know, but I hide it behind, you know, a veneer of cynicism. And I like to think of it as Mungeresque to do a deep cut right now. So the first thing I'm going to say is our banking system. Our banking system is, our banking system is, unlike the US, there you have a couple of giant money center banks, your JP Morgan's,

your city groups, your Bank of Americas and your Wells Fargoes, blah, blah, blah. And then you have about 78,000 tiny little banks and savings and loans. I'm probably making up a completely silly number, but we don't have that. We have six big banks, and they control basically everything. And there are a few smaller, but the big six banks. And the big six banks are incredibly diverse. So, yes, they're into mortgage lending, but they're also into business lending, but they're also into wealth management and investments, but they're also into insurance, but they're also into on and on and on. If you pick a financial business line, they are probably tied to it one way or the other.

They control all the deposits, so there's no kind of Silicon Valley style bank runs that are happening. They're all generally well capitalized. Probably the worst of the bunch would be C IBC. which I like to call the bank most likely to walk into sharp objects, but they're generally the one who if you need to ask yourself who has the most exposure to whatever disaster is happening today, it's probably CIBC among the Canadian six banks. But they are very large, very diversified, and they are going to weather this present storm. And the banks have just started reporting their most recent quarters. In fact, Bank of Nova Scotia reported the day before we've recorded recording this.

The next five of the Big Six will be reporting, I think, over the next two or three days. What is interesting to me is these are long-term market beating winners. The Canadian market is unlike the U.S. market. Our long-term annualized return here in Canada is about 8 percent for the last 20 years. And if you want to go for like about 45 years, I think, since Capital IQ was keeping data, I believe it's about 8.7%. That is with dividends reinvested. That's a very important distinction because in the US, the S&P 500 does 10, 11%,

before dividends, 11, 12%, with dividends reinvested. So we have had lower aggregate returns. And that is large part because I talked about earlier how we have a lot of resource companies, a lot of boom and bust in those areas. We managed to at one point in time have the largest company in Canada, That would be Nortel Networks. That one went to zero. That was good. Research in motion. Another one has lost a lot of its value. There's been a lot of hindrances on the index, is what I'm trying to say. But the banks are long-term growing winners. They have raised their dividends. Some of them

have paid dividends since before Canada was a country. Canada Confederation was in 1867, for those I don't know. Some of them predate the existence of Canada, have been paying dividends. I'm uninterrupted since before the existence of Canada, the country officially, obviously not the landmass. And they have a habit of raising their dividends on the regular. So right now, you can see, at least in the Bank of Nova Scotia report that came out two days ago, they took larger than expected provisioning. The banks are hunkering down. They are preparing for loans to go bad.

And this all sounds bad, but I'm going to take another mongerism here. And I'm going to go invert. Always invert. You want to be a buyer of these types of assets when things look bad. And right now, on my other screen here, I have the valuation of all big six banks since 2000, but almost 23 years, almost 24 years. All six are at valuations that are well below the present or well below the average valuation. If you look at just the valuation levels over the past 10 years, one is slightly above what the average over the past 10 years is.

That is, again, C-IBC. But everything else, the setup looks good. They all pay a dividend. I believe the average dividend yield at this point is somewhere around 5.5% ranging from 4.6% for the banks generally considered the higher quality ones. that, Cough Cough Royal Bank in Toronto Dominion, TD, and up to 7.2% for Bank of Nova Scotia, which again is the one that just reported. What I find fascinating about that is Bank of Nova Scotia is one of the two banks, National Bank of Canada being the other one, one of the two banks that did not engage in those static payment variable rate mortgages. And yet it has

the lowest valuation slash highest yield. That's interesting to me. Full disclosure, I own some myself. Every Canadian owns bank stock through various index funds and mutual funds, but I own some stock directly as well. But the banks are interesting to me because five years from now, we will get through this. The economy will, I presume, because economy is ebb and flow, we will be on an uptick at some point in the next half decade. I have to assume, since that's how we generally have rolled anyway. This is a really great time to be a buyer. The only better time I can think of being a buyer of the best, the banks was in 2008, 2009 when, of course, everything looked like it was imploding worldwide. It's like, and if you could muscle up and stomach the volatility and the pain of that time,

boy, you've had fun with your bank stock. These are companies that touch every Canadian's life daily. So I like the banks. We do lack what we- They're all cross-listed, by the way. Oh, yes. Oh, yeah. Five of the six are cross-listed. The only one that is not cross-listed on both the TSX and the American exchanges is National

Bank of Canada, which is ticker NA on the TSX, does not have a US listing. But Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, TD, Royal Bank, and who have I missed? CIBC, of course. They are all cross-listed on US exchanges. So Americans can have easy access to this thesis. As we go beyond that, though, again, kind of your benchmark in Canada here is about 8% a year for for your stocks. And like I said, Scotia Bank yielding 7.2. So you're almost going to get, you can almost get, you know, average market performance

just by buying the dividend and leaving it alone. Scotia Bank will be here, frankly. And also too, I should also mention all of these banks have significant non-Canadian exposure. So anyone from the Boston area, if you want to go watch the Boston Bruins play, they play at the TD Bank North Arena, TD being the Toronto I believe the Carolina Hurricanes. Yes, I'm doing hockey metaphors here. The Carolina Hurricanes play, at least they used to, play at the RBC Arena, Royal Bank of Canada. So, Canada has come south. The Canadian banks have come south. I've made various acquisitions. Bank of Montreal has done one recently as well. So there's a way for Americans to play.

But the one thing that we don't have in Canada, we don't have what we traditionally would call Canadian rule breakers. Like, rule breakers, the motif that's been, you know, obviously made famous among fools by David Gardner. We lack those types of companies again. We're very resource-based. We're very financial-based. But we, that doesn't mean we don't have interesting companies that I believe you can make good money on. For context, yeah, there is no magnificent seven in Canada. No. Technology sector on the TSX composite, only about 5.6% of the overall. components to compare that to the US, where the S&P 500 over a quarter of that index comes from some of these big tech companies. So without those big, magnificent seven stocks to go after, Jim,

where are the places you go to look to find big winners in Canada? Well, so can I say that we have a couple of technology companies, but they're kind of, I think they are their accidents, if I may, more that we don't have sectors. Okay. And I've already mentioned a couple of past technology. Technology companies that had bitter ends. Nortel went to zero. JDS Unifase effectively did the same. I mentioned Research in Motion.

Now, Blackberry, that is just, you know, you can hear the sucking sound from Waterloo, Ontario, from where I live. It's all kind of blown up. But let me go to a couple tech companies in Canada. One, of course, being Shopify, it's a full favorite. It came out of Canada. We found it, the Team Canada found it and put it on a couple of our scorecards when it was a small cap. So, now it's a $100 billion company, I believe, or near enough. It of course,

got a little crazy during the pandemic bubble. It's come back to Earth, but it's still a quality business. It's still working very well, and so we continue to like it. I'll go another tech company here, which is sort of a tech company. It's not Magnificent Seven, but it's a company that I consider to be the best company in Canada, and I don't think there's a debate. And that company is, Nick, I believe you probably know exactly who I'm going to go with. It's Constellation Software and Trudea Forum in Canada. It's got a little bit of a roll-up quality to it. Exactly. Yes, that is the name. I believe I don't have my spreadsheet open now, but I believe

the annualized return since its 2006 IPO is somewhere in the 35 to 40 percent range, which is good. In a country where, again, over that same period of time, I'm not sure the market has with dividends reinvested, done much more than eight. Constellation has been fantastic. And as Nick says, it is a roll up. Specifically, they roll up small and medium-sized software companies that no one else wants, basically, or that have no pretensions of being other than smaller, medium-sized software companies.

So rather than big software, we get a lot of press. I'm talking about software that helps run restaurants, software that helps run mental practices, you know, software that might be on your parking tickets. Yeah, pay, thank you. Yeah. It's a lot of mundane things that we don't think of, but you need software to operate, run behind the scenes. And it's led by the founder who is kind of a recluse, Mark Leonard's CEO and founder. He's absolutely brilliant at what he has done. He's brought a culture in that I think is second to none. For example, you get your bonus paid in stock, or sorry, You get your bonus paid in cash if you were an executive there.

And then you have to believe, I believe it's about 70%. You have to go buy, if you got a bonus and you're an executive of Constellation Software, you then have to take 70%ish of your bonus and go buy shares of Constellation on the open market because they want you participating in the success of the company. But they're not just going to hose out equity like so many other companies do and just shove brand new shares into your pocket and then we'll buy it back later. No, you've got to have real stakes here. But it's been a fantastic company.

It's a little large now for what they do. In the recent years, they've started spinning off a few things. Topicus and Lumine are the two major spinoffs they've done. But it's still been an absolutely fantastic investment. So there's our tech sector. We don't really have a lot of what I'll call traditional compounders, but we have really great businesses that you can buy at great or fair prices. So, the next one I'll introduce you to is Alamattacian Couchard, or just Couchard if you want.

Americans will probably have no idea who that is until I say they are the parent company and owner of Circle K, the convenience store that you find the gas station nearest you. If you want to buy gas, go in, buy little snacks for the road, maybe pick up a week old hot dog, Alamitation Couchard has spent years. rolling up convenience store chains around the planet. They've now consolidated most things in North America under the Circle K brand. But if you go find yourself fools a stock chart, long-term stock chart, say 20 years, what ticker ATD on the TSX, the Toronto Stock Exchange has done, I think you'll be very impressed. And then just because one of my absolute favorite Canadian

companies, because it's absurd, and I fully admit, I do specialize a little bit in the absurd end of the market, I try to find stories that are off the beaten path, that are maybe misunderstood. Take that for what it's worth. And I've mentioned this company before in several places, but it's a company called Stella Jones, S.J on the TSX. Stella Jones is basically the world's largest provider of treated wood railway ties. And as my colleague, Ian Butler likes to call it, or our colleague, I suppose, because Nick works with me on Team Canada. He likes to call it the State Tree of Nevada, the utility pole, the telephone

and utility poles. Yes, they make wood treated products, essentially. That's an interesting business because who's going to come in and take it? Who gets excited about Creosote soaking utility poles? What this company has done, it's been a great compounding story for about the last 20 years, stock price compounding. But it kind of went through a bit of a renaissance over the last seven or eight years or before 2023. It kind of, it reached a valuation that was, you know, excited about 2014, I think, 2015, where, you're getting close to 30 times earnings for this business. And so it kind of traded sideways for most of the next decade. And what people didn't realize or at least kind of ignored was that 30 times earnings valuation,

nearly 30 times earnings valuation almost a decade ago, was kind of a 10 times valuation by about the end of 2021, early 2022. And so subsequently, you know, and that's kind of when we, Team Canada got interested in it, we've recommended a couple of services. Stocks doubled in the last year and a bit, even as, you know, a lot of the high fly and tech stuff kind of, you know, went, you know, splat. And it's just, you know, they have a niche, they stick to their niche. They make a lot of cash in that niche.

They deploy that cash via dividends, buybacks, and prudent acquisitions, and it's wash, rinse, repeat. And so it's, and again, who is excited about starting a competitor to a railway tie and utility poll maker? I'm going to hazard a guess and say very, very few if not no one. Yeah, that's right. Some of these Canadian compounders, not as flashy as maybe the company, the big companies in the US, but really find a niche to exploit and have been able to really create value for shareholders from areas of the market that a lot of folks might not have thought big winners would have come from.

As always, people on the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about. And the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy ourselves stocks based solely on what you hear. I'm Mary Long. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.