Motley Fool Money - REITs, Homebuilders, and the Return of Las Vegas

Episode Date: December 10, 2022

You can think of real estate in a lot of different ways, but at the end of the day it's just space. And that space is going through a lot of change. Interest rates are going higher, homes are getting more expensive, and companies continue to struggle with hybrid-work plans. Deidre Woollard and Matt Argersinger discuss: - Lesser-known office REITs that may be presenting opportunities for investors - Homebuilders facing headwinds - Lessons from Las Vegas’s comeback Companies mentioned: SLG, ARE, HPP, DEA, TOL, PHM, HD, LOW, SHW, POOL, SPG, VICI, KIM, EPR Host: Deidre Woollard Guest: Matt Argersinger Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by KolaGard. Do you know what's really scary? Not screening for colon cancer when you turn 45. The Koloard test is non-invasive, requires no special prep or time off work, and ships right to your door. In just three simple steps, KolaGar takes the scare out of colon cancer screening. If you're 45 or older and at average risk, ask your health care provider about the KolaGard test. Koloard is available by prescription only. Learn more or request a prescription today at KolaGar.com slash screen. I mean, we can say, we can call them cyclical all we want, but the reality is, DeJU and I know this, there's a huge demand for homes.

I mean, we've underbuilt in this country for, you know, the past 10 years. There's millions of homes that we need to have. And so even if prices come down a bit, I think they can't go down too much because the demand will certainly come in and fill that. And that's especially true if we get a little bit break on the interest rates, maybe next year. I'm Chris Hill, and that's Motley Fool's senior analyst, Matt Barkassinger. There are some popular narratives in real estate. Interest rates are rising, home sales are cooling, and nobody is going back to the office.

But some companies are challenging those storylines. Dieter Wollard caught up with Argusinger to talk about how investors can watch the home building cycle, a few potential opportunities in home improvement stocks, and REITs with well-covered dividends. I think a lot of real estate companies are actually kind of challenging the narrative right now. Real estate, it's always polarizing. People are rushing in. People are rushing out. There's a bubble. There's not a bubble. Right now, it feels to me like that activity's kind of headed out. Me, I'm staying in. I'm rolling with the cycles and doing just fine over time. Matt, why do you stay invested in real estate?

Yeah, I mean, I would never not be invested in real estate. And I think, I mean, first of all, it's been such a historically great performing asset class. To me, other than stocks, there really is no rival than real estate. I mean, if you just look at over the years, whether you're looking at residential, commercial, it's been a great asset class. It's much less volatile than stocks, and yet it performs nearly as well, if not even better, during certain stretches of time. And it has proven to be a pretty good inflation and interest rate hedge as well, although judging by this year, you probably wouldn't think that. But it's certainly true

over time. I also think what I like about real estate too, and this gets lost, I think, because when we look at real estate, we're always thinking about the utilization of that real estate, right? Like, okay, there's a home. So people are living there. There's an apartment building. So people are renting. There's a office building. So there's a tenant that's a that's a, that's a leasing it. But sometimes I think it's helpful to think of real estate is just space, right? It's just space. And there's a finite amount of land. There's a finite amount of square footage within a building. And however that's used, it can be used in a lot of different ways. But there's a value to that. And I think if you take that space, that square footage

or that piece of land and it's in a place where people want to be or where businesses want to develop, there's value to it. And there's things you can do with it, renting it, developing it, just owning it and holding it. So I think real estate as an ask class is just fascinating for that simple reason. It's just that space. It's space that people want and demand. Space. I think that's, I think that kind of leads me into my next question because one of the things that you just mentioned, which is true about real estate, is that the same piece of real estate can have many different purposes. You know, Matt, I feel like you and I, we spent the last couple of years talking about office real estate and the pendulum keeps shifting. I think, I think my

thesis has changed like four times. You know, we started off in the pandemic with full remote work. Now we've got hybrid work. I'm looking at 2023 and I'm thinking this is the year when the tide shifts back to more in office work, although I'm not 100% sure. But part of that I think is that the power has shifted back to the employers a bit. We've seen those high profile tech layoffs, And we've got, certainly on the financial side, you've got David Solomon, right? He's Goldman Sachs CEO. He wants to see people in the office around 75% of the time. J.P. Morgan Chase CEO, Jamie Diamond, he wants to see people in the office.

Snap CEO Evan Spiegel. He just said recently that he wants to have four days in the office starting in February. Are we all going back to the office? Well, I was also going to say, you know, you didn't mention Elon Musk, too, which was just pretty loud about. getting Twitter employees back, right? I don't know. Deirdre, I think I'm probably pushing back against that a little bit. I don't know if there's going to be this big tide shifting back to the in-office work. Mainly because I think a lot of businesses have sort of realized, well, you know,

our employees are fairly productive. You know, this work-at-home experiment, as sort of disruptive as it was back in March and April of 2020, it's actually worked out kind of well. And I think a lot of businesses are embracing sort of that virtual first approach. I agree with you. I think there is, there's an element though that of businesses and corporations are going to want employees back. I think that's why you're probably going to see this hybrid approach where it's two, three, four days in the office, but much more flexibility. I don't know. It's such a tough question. I think it's one we've been grappling with the past few years, but I almost think that pandemic has created a permanent sea change. And I don't know if we're going back. I mean, if you just look at one

data point that you and I discuss often, which is the Castle key card, you know, data. And if you look at New York City, that, it rose to as high as I think 45 percent earlier in 2022. And it's been basically flat since. It hasn't gotten over, back over that 50 percent mark yet. And that, I think, is a pretty good proxy for, hey, here's a big urban office environment, which used to bring hundreds of thousands, millions of workers into this one central place for decades throughout history. And yet, here we are almost three years into this pandemic. And we can't even get occupancy back, physical occupancy back to 50%. I think that's pretty telling.

Yes, but I would push back on that because I've seen some data that also says that this phenomenon has tended to be more of a coastal phenomenon where you've got people not coming back to the office as much in New York or San Francisco, but they are coming back to the office more in the middle of the country or in smaller markets. So I think it's just too hard to make a universal statement about this because there's so many different factors. And I think that's one of the things that as I think about investing in office long term, I'm thinking about the fact that you can't really make one decision anymore. It's so much depends on a variety of different factors. Right. And I agree. And one of those factors, I think, is the, the asset, the building itself, right?

I think if you're going to attract people back to the office, whether it's New York, San Francisco, or like you said, whether it's the middle of the country, I think you're going to have to have a, you know, doesn't have to be class A, but it has to be a pretty nice place to work. It has to, you know, it has to have, I think sanitation capabilities, hygiene aspects that buildings didn't really need to have in previous years. And that's going to be hard. That's going to take a lot of investment. And there are a lot of investors or developers who might not take that risk or office owners who are going to invest the capital to kind of retrofit their office to meet the current environment. So there is going to be an attractorness back to certain aspects of office. But I feel like there's a whole swath. And if you look at

you know, the Urban Land Institute's recent report, they said anywhere between 10 to 20 percent of office space is going to either need to be removed or repurposed for other uses. And that is hundreds of billions of dollars in value. In New York City alone, that could be about $500 billion in value that's of office value right now. That's probably going away. So that's pretty stark. It's going to be quite a challenge. But, you know, there is going to be, of course, an element. It just depends on where it is and how it's perceived as an asset. Right. And I think one of the things that we've already seen is that people have, like you just said,

people have to have a reason to go to the office. It has to be a better experience for not just for the employer, but for the worker to actually go into the office. I've seen some companies sort of pivoting their office space into it's almost more kind of like a showroom where you go in maybe to get certain materials or have meetings. It's much more, I'm going in for a reason to connect with people to do. do certain things, then I'm just going to go in and sit at a desk because I can do that at home. And I think exactly right. Yeah, right? So I think one of the issues here that I'm also thinking

about, and this one has me really thinking is with office, we've got long leases, right? Five years, 10 years. And at the start of the pandemic, they don't all come do at the same time. And we're starting to see more and more of that as we're deeper into this situation where people are thinking about their space long term. At the same time, companies are going into maybe a recession, maybe a time when they're feeling a little less secure. And you've also got this lending environment that worries me. You know, I recently, I chatted with Ben Miller of Fundrise, and he kind of put this idea in my head because he was talking about the great deal leveraging. And he was talking about commercial office buildings. They have debt that restructures every few years. It's coming due

in this environment, which isn't a great environment. how much should we think about those two factors, the lease is coming due and also the restructuring of debt? Yeah, it presents, what you presented is the serious sort of near-term challenge. And what we've kind of been talking about prior was the long-term challenge, right? What is the value of this office space and it's going to be a lease in the future? But you're right. I mean, most office landlords are facing a serious crunch right now because not only do they have tenants who might not be interested in renewing, they've got debt coming due in, you know, in upcoming years. And it's in talk about, you know, imagine rolling over debt

that maybe you're financing right now, you're building at three and a half percent, a very favorable rate that you've got, you know, in recent years. And now you're going to roll that up to six or seven percent interest rate. That is a, that's a big hit at the same time when you're at the cash flows of the building might be falling. So I think, yeah, you're, what Ben Miller rightly pointed out is that this is a very, you know, uncertain world right now for office. And it's going to present some opportunities, but certainly for most office landlords, it's a big time challenge. I'll just point out not to pick on New York too much, but, you know, S.L. Green, which is the big Manhattan office owner. They just cut their dividend. And this

is a company that I think had raised their dividend every year for at least 10 years. And all of a sudden they just cut it. And you can say, you can tell, that's obviously a move by them to, keep their balance sheet strong as they enter this sort of uncertain period. Yeah. Well, we've talked a lot about the where. I want to talk a little bit about the what, because I think it also depends on what type of office it is, because that really determines how often you need to be in the office. So you and I, we both own Alexandria real estate equities. I think we both like it for the same reason. Not just to look at the locations are great. You know, Boston, San Diego, there's a lot of great locations for ARE. but it's also, it's life science focused, and those people can't necessarily do their work from home.

But even that one, that's a great read. I love it so much. It hasn't been the best year for me with that one. It's down around 25%. How should we be thinking about office-related reeds as investments? I think that this is when you do focus on an Alexandria real estate. You focus on the offices that have tenants. that are in sort of critical, you know, like a life sciences type of industry, or another one that comes to mind is Hudson Pacific Properties, which is an office street on the West Coast, but they're

a big owner of film and TV studios, right? So that's a place where obviously you need people there, you know, it's a job that requires you to be on site. Or something like easterly government properties, which is a leases to the federal government in a bunch of various capacities, but they focus on agencies within the government, like the FBI, the FDA, the VA, where there's what they call enduring missions. And these are critical missions where people have to get together. It's not worth it can be done at home. That's, I think, where you have to focus on it. And the great thing is, if your investor, a lot of these sort of niche office reeds have been sort of thrown out with all the other traditional office reads. Like you mentioned, Alexandria,

being down 25%. That, I think, presents opportunity for these specific rates that really have tenants that are going to be on site where there's really better visibility into leasing in the long run. Yeah, absolutely. Well, I want to pivot to the other place we spend all of our time, which is more than ever, is home. It has been such a weird year for residential real estate. We've got these high interest rates, and that has made buyers be less interested. And yet we haven't seen sellers put their homes on the market. You're still dealing with this really low inventory. I invest in real estate brokerage stocks.

I am feeling this. But I'm wondering where the relief comes from. And I'm wondering if I should start paying more attention to home builders. Right now it's a tough time for them. They're offering concessions. You know, building permits have dropped. And I think a lot of home builders are waiting out the market. This has to shift at some point. How are you thinking about both residential real estate and home builders?

Well, no doubt, I think we're going to see, we're already seeing it. We're seeing some slowing, some pain on the residential real estate side. I think it's easy to say that home prices, a lot of markets have to come down because mortgage rates are just so much higher. Mortgage rates are more than double where they were at this time in 2021. And so that, of course, has to change things. You can't have someone buy the same house, but have their payment more than double. So that's coming down. I think you're right. I think home builders are in a very interesting position in a sense that they've seen the slowdown. It's already hit their stock valuations. They've pulled back in a lot of cases. Their backlog of orders has fallen. Their cancellation rates have risen. So there's a lot of concern that,

there. But I think if you're an opportunity to investor, there might be some values because home builders learned a lot of great lessons from the great financial crisis 15 or so years ago. Their balance sheets are a lot better place. They've been a lot more conservative with their land buying and their landholding. And so I almost think they've been unfairly beaten down. And gosh, the valuations for these home builders. Now, they look incredible right now. I mean, you're seeing like I was looking at Toll Brothers or Pulte Group earlier today. And you can see their P multiples are below 10. And you're thinking yourself, why, that's an amazing opportunity. But you have to remember a lot of their earnings right now is reflecting, trailing

numbers. And so their business was actually really good going into the last couple of quarters. So those evaluations aren't going to look as great, probably by this time next year. But I do think that is the time you get interested in cyclical industries like home building. And I mean, we can say, we can call them cyclical all we want. But the reality is, DeJere, you and I know this, there's a huge demand for homes. I mean, we've underbuilt in this country for the past 10 years. There's millions of homes that we need to have. And so even if prices come down a bit, I think they can't go down too much because the demand will certainly come in and fill that. And that's especially true if we get a little bit break on the interest rates, maybe next year.

I think that's one of the things I'm considering. And I know that we all, investors, analysts, everybody, we have a tendency to fight the past war, right? We have a tendency to look at the last cycle and assume that the next cycle will look like this. My intuition is that this cycle that we're seeing, whatever we're seeing in housing isn't going to take the kind of time that the last one did. Whatever we're going through, I have this feeling that is going to be a bit shorter because with 2008, I mean, it took years and years for us to get out of that cycle. This is a very different beast. that this is something that's going to be a little bit shorter. Am I off here? No, no, I think you're exactly right. I mean, because not even thinking about it from the home

builder's perspective, think about it from, like you said, the home buyer's perspective, right? I mean, after the great financial crisis, how many years did it take to get through all that foreclosure backlog and how long did it take for home prices get back to where they were? It took years. Coming into this, you know, credit scores are a lot higher. Consumers have a lot better balance sheets. they're not going to face the same, you know, they weren't speculating as they were back, you know, when you had the average person trying to flip seven homes, you know, at the same time. There just wasn't really anything like that in this cycle, even though it was still a pretty robust cycle for housing. So I think you're exactly right. It's not going to be as long,

whatever decline we get. It's not going to be as long. It's certainly going to be shallower than what we had back in the great financial crisis. One last question on this is something I'm thinking about, which is what we got out of the great financial crisis was the rise of the single family rental institutional investor. That was sort of one of the big things that happened. Blackstone and invitation homes came out at that. What do you think is the thing that comes out of this cycle? Is it built to rent? That's sort of what I'm thinking, but I'm not entirely sure that's the one that we get out of this one. That's such a great question. I haven't a lot of thought in that, but you know, maybe you've seen the rise of co-living spaces and home

sharing. And by the way, it goes back to our office discussion as well. The whole we work model, right, which I think might have been ahead of its time actually might have more relevance in the future. But I also think, relatedly, this co-living concept, too, could be a big thing. And one last thing I'll say about this cycle, one area of the market that's been hit just as hard, if not harder in certain cases, then the home builders is, if you look at the home improvement stocks, like your home depots, your lows, of course, but your Trex's, your Sherman Williams is, your pool corps, you know, all these companies that are focused on, you know, home improvement, they've been crushed. And I just think if you're expecting a shallower, you know,

decline for the home market like we're expecting, that could also be a place to look for opportunities. Yeah, you just mentioned a bunch of companies that have really proven their value over time, too. Right. I mean, great track records, right? And you're seeing these businesses that just have been, at least on the valuation side, have been crushed. And I think that's probably overdone in some cases. Yeah. Well, let's talk a little bit about consumer spending and the way that impacts real estate, because this has fascinated me. Inflation is rising. Interest rates also rising. There's layoffs. There's uncertainty. the big R-word recession keeps looming, and yet we are still spending Black Friday results were strong. Cyber Monday was results were strong. People are spending on more travel and experiences. That sort of that revenge spending that was supposed to just be a blip after the pandemic,

it keeps going. So should we be considering real estate that relies on consumer activity, both retail and hospitality right now? I think so. I, you know, I think you're, You're right. I mean, it's the consumer spending, the consumer resiliency has been, has been something to be hold. I do wonder a little bit, you know, we're seeing, we are seeing credit card balances hit records and we're seeing savings rates plummet. That worries you a little bit. But as we spoke before, I think consumers as a whole are in our much better shape. We know, at least right now, the economy in terms of the employment rate looks very strong. And so as long as people have jobs and can get jobs, and there seems to be a lot of job opening

still out there for people looking for jobs, I would expect that spending to continue. You mentioned on the retail hospitality side, I think we've all been impressed with how resilient retail has been, brick and mortar retail especially. We kind of, again, it's one of those places where we left it for dead. I mean, it was already inclined. We left it for dead certainly when the pandemic hit. But, you know, speaking of challenging the narrative, I mean, if you look at the results from, say, Simon Property Group, which is tremendous.

You know, they're get their occupancy's up. Their net operating income was higher. They're having leasing success. They raise their outlook again. And if that is, now Simon's a little bit different, you know, it's certainly the high-end mall, but it tells a story about the consumer and the spending abilities that this consumer in this economy still has. And then on the hospitality side, most, you know, if I look at hotel rates or even private

hotel operations, we're seeing record results, you know, whether it's daily rates or repar. Occamency is the one, I think that's still slightly below 2019, so pre-COVID, but every other metric is at records. And I would expect that that sort of delayed gratification, travel, revenge spending, however you want to call it. I think that has a room to go into 2023. Yeah, you mentioned one of my favorites, Simon Property Group. And one of the reasons that I love that company is because of the tenant base.

And I like some other companies because of that. I like Kimcoe because of the grocery tenants anchoring those properties. What other REITs in those spaces are really appealing right now? Well, it has more risk to it. But I think something like an EPR properties, which, you know, depending on how you look at it, but I'd say mostly, unfortunately, is that about 40% of their tenant base is movie theaters. And that's been a tough business to be in, certainly in recent years. But they have so many other properties, whether it's hotels or ski resorts or bowling alleys

and things that are attracting people to, that go out to do not just shopping, but also to go out to eat and have a good experience. I think EPR is one to look at. One that we've been excited about recently on the Real Estate Winter Service that I'm on is Vici Properties, which just by the way, did a deal with Blackstone. I'm sure you saw that data where they're requiring the remaining equity in the MGM Grand and Manley Bay that they didn't already own. But you have a company now that essentially owns the Las Vegas Strip. And Las Vegas to me seems like such a great place to bet on.

It's become kind of its own ecosystem in a way. or not you think a recession is coming. What you have coming in 2023 is the return of, a full slate of conventions, events, F1 racing. I think the Super Bowl's coming in 2024. Either way, this is a company that just has some of the best retail entertainment properties in the country. That's another one to take a look at. And both EPR and Vichy, by the way, and Simon, which we mentioned earlier, have really high dividend yields. And I think those dividend yields are more than covered. Well, I think the story of Las Vegas, I think there's a lesson in there because during the pandemic, a lot of people counted out Las Vegas.

They counted out the idea that people would ever go back to conventions. Here we are. We're two years later. You're absolutely right. Convention traffic is up. Convention bookings are up. That sort of brings me to thinking about the ways as we look at real estate. There are assumptions that we make that then prove not to be true.

How can we kind of prevent ourselves from making big, big, sweeping assumptions that don't necessarily pan out? It's what investors face. I think it's one of those challenges and risks that investors face, which is how do I not become a prisoner in the moment? How do I recognize that the news I read or see is never as dire as it sounds or as good as it sounds, right? It's kind of the truth is always somewhere in the middle.

And I think early on the pandemic, it was easy to turn around and say, oh, my gosh, no one's ever going to go to Vegas again. No one's ever going to go shopping again. No one's ever going to go sit in a movie theater again. No one's going to ever go see a baseball game in person again. And those were all just way overreactions, right? But then on the flip side, I think a lot of us said, well, of course we're going to go back to the office. This isn't going to last forever.

Go back to March 2020. I think you and I probably did a podcast together. We were like, yeah, maybe by the fall, we'll come back to the office, right? And that proved to be, you know, here we are, two and a half, almost three. years on and most of us are still not back to the office, which is stunning in a lot of ways. So in that sense, I think we were probably too optimistic. So it's fascinating to be an investor or a kind of a watcher of markets in the news and realize that the truth is always somewhere in the middle. And as an investor, the more you can sort of be even killed with all these sort

of big prognostications on both sides, the better you're going to be. Yeah, absolutely. Don't be a prisoner of the moment. I love that. I think that. That's a perfect place to end it. Thank you so much for your time today, Matt. Thanks, teacher. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. I'm Chris Hill. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.