Motley Fool Money - Retail's Big Story, Executive Shake-ups, Pizza Deconstructed

Episode Date: August 19, 2022

Details about The Federal Reserve's meeting in July sent stocks to their first losing week in a month. (0:30) Emily Flippen and Ron Gross discuss: - Expectations around more interest rate hikes in ...the near future - "Inventory" being the key story around big retailers like Walmart and Target - Deere's mixed 3rd-quarter results and potential for a bright future - The incredible roller coaster for Bed Bath and Beyond shareholders this week - Foot Locker's surprising 2nd-quarter results and new CEO - The latest from Home Depot, Lowe's, and Starbucks (19:45) Ricky Mulvey talks with Bloomberg entertainment industry reporter Lucas Shaw about Warner Brothers Discovery, and how the media conglomerate is consolidating and evolving. (32:50) Emily and Ron analyze the latest innovation from Papa John's and share two stocks on their radar: Rover Group and American Tower Stocks discussed on the show: WMT, TGT, HD, LOW, DE, BBBY, SBUX, FL, WBD, DIS, PARA, PZZA, AMT, ROVR Our annual investing conference is free for Motley Fool members! For more details go to http://Fool.com/FoolFest. Host: Chris Hill Guests: Emily Flippen, Ron Gross, Lucas Shaw Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:18 What? Oh boy. Fantastic. You guys go hard. Daredevil Born Again, official podcast Tuesdays, and stream Season 2 of Marvel Television's Daredevil Born Again on Disney Plus. Wall Street tries to keep its winning streak intact, while one company deconstructs its signature product. Motley Fool Money starts now.
Starting point is 00:00:43 That's why they call it money. Global headquarters. This is Motley Fool Money Radio Show. I'm Chris Hill, joining me in studio. Botley Fool's senior analyst, Emily Flippin, and Ron Gross. Good to see you both. Hey, Chris. We've got the latest in retail, restaurants, and more.
Starting point is 00:01:22 We've got some shakeups in the executive ranks. And as always, we've got a couple of stocks on our restaurants. radar. But we begin with the market in general. The recent rise of the stock market hit a speed bump this week after minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting indicated more interest rate hikes are coming in the near term. Ron, were you surprised by this? Because I wasn't, but apparently some investors were. They shouldn't have been, right? I mean, the Fed has been signaling for quite some time now that higher interest rates are necessary to bring inflation down. In fact, the market
Starting point is 00:01:56 market is actually baking in at least another 50 basis point hike in September. So the market as a whole should really have not been surprised. I think what the market reacted to in a good way is that officials said they would be cautious, acknowledging that risk, if too much tightening would be too big a risk to the economy. Again, they're trying to engineer that so-called soft landing and not put us into a recession. I think investors cheered the fact that, okay, Once again, the Fed is telling us all, they get it. Doesn't mean they'll be able to do it, but they get it, and they have to try to do this just right to get to their 2% inflation target.
Starting point is 00:02:38 We're much, much higher than that now, but not throw us into recession. We do see some signs that the economy is weakening. We do see some signs that inflation is coming down. We got home sale data that was weak recently, and some other pockets of the economy are showing some weakness as well. job markets, still strong, though. I think what the market likes is predictability. The good news is that with each passing month, the Federal Reserve is becoming a bit more
Starting point is 00:03:06 predictable. If you read through their minutes, the language is becoming more of what they've repeated in the past, which is exactly what Ron said, slowly rising interest rates, right? Trying to engineer that soft landing. We'll see if it's possible without a big recession. But the idea is that the market doesn't like when the economy and rates and such are unpredictable. We saw that in the first half of the year. So hopefully this means headed into the second half of the year, we just see a decrease in
Starting point is 00:03:29 general volatility, even if interest rates continue to rise. You know, what's interesting is with this somewhat of a rebound in the market recently, stock market is once again not so cheap. So this is going to depend on what kind of earnings companies can put out in the face of things like inflation with some decreasing margins and some weakening economic numbers. So let's keep an eye on this because it's not a gimmie that the market just goes straight up from here. Speaking of earnings, let's start with big retail. Walmart and Target both out with second quarter reports this week. The headline for Walmart was a beat on the top and bottom
Starting point is 00:04:04 lines with revenue of nearly $153 billion. Target's profits were nearly 90% lower than a year ago due to ongoing challenges with inventory. And Emily, both of these companies had lowered expectations heading into their earnings reports. What stood out to you? Well, big retail to me this quarter is just a story about inventory. So, in fact, I think you can summarize which retailers performed relatively well and which did relatively poor simply by looking at how they managed inventory over the past year. So if you take Target, for instance, Target's inventory has nearly doubled since its pre-pandemic average. They invested really heavily into things that consumers were buying a lot of, discretionary items, electronics. And those are the sorts of things
Starting point is 00:04:48 that were left sitting in these Target stores as consumers pulled back expectations for spending. Walmart also invested into inventory, although not extreme the way that Target did. While they had more inventory than they had in the past, it wasn't to the same level that Target experienced. So while they had a somewhat disappointing guidance, it didn't quite come to that 90% cutback that we're looking at in terms of targets' expected profits. So those two businesses themselves, it just comes down to the quality of merchandising. And anytime I'm looking at a retailer, I want to know what's their merchandise strategy.
Starting point is 00:05:21 Target's done really well in the past, but over the past year, they've admitted it, but they've missed the mark with their merchandising. So I want to see how they're iterating on that moving forward. The good news is that discount retailers, where I bought my outfit I'm wearing today from the Burlington and the T.J. Maxes of the world, they benefit from these inventory write downs. Target CEO, Brian Cornell, in referring to their inventory, and the levels are still kind of where they were three months ago, but Cornell says, you know what, we have a better mix now. Given his track record at the company, I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt, but it seems like this sort of statement that three months from now, we're going to find out whether or not he was right. Definitely.
Starting point is 00:06:02 You have to be super careful with guidance in this quarter, and that's what we're saying companies do, and they're pointing to what could be a continued softening of the American economy and consumer spending, but at the same time, you don't want to be scaring off investors with really strong statements that we're going to continue to have inventory problems for foreseeable quarters. So it's all about managing expectations while also being realistic. where meeting the consumer where they may be in the second half of the year. From big retail to big home improvement, Home Depot's second quarter report was stronger
Starting point is 00:06:30 than lows, but both companies saw their average ticket rise and shares of both Home Depot and lows up a little bit this week, Ron. Yeah, Home Depot was definitely the stronger report. The stock is still off 23% from its 52-week high, but I don't think we should necessarily be surprised by that. But I did like specifically some of the metrics that Home Depot released. Sales were up about 6.5%. Higher prices, that's important here. Higher prices more than offset a drop in transactions. The average amount spent per transaction was up 9.1%, but transactions
Starting point is 00:07:05 fell 3%. And they've fallen in each of the past five quarters. Something to keep an eye on, because pricing can't fix problems forever. So we do want people coming into the stores and shopping. Same Star sales up 5.8%. Home Depot saw an 11.6% increase in transactions that were over $1,000, which is an indication that the professional customer, not to do it yourself or the schlub like me who goes in there looking for a wrench, is actually an important part of Home Depot's business. In fact, it's more important to Home Depot than it is to Lowe's, as we'll see in some of the numbers. Home Depot looks strong, yields 2.3 percent, trading it 19 times forward earnings. I think Home Depot remains a nice company to own. Lowe's not as strong.
Starting point is 00:07:56 Shares still off about 18% from the 52-week high. Declining sales for the second quarter in a row. Results were hurt by decreased demand from the non-professional customer base. Those do-it-yourselfers make up 75% of Lowe's customer base. Sales to professional customers were up 13%. So we do see some strength there. It's just not a big enough portion of Lowe's business, the way Home Depot says. But the company did manage inventory well. Interestingly, we saw that operating income was up a bit, but net income was down because taxes were too high. But earnings per share was up because this company is buying back so much stock. So don't be fooled sometimes by the numbers. You've got to look behind things like earnings per share to say, why is earnings per share?
Starting point is 00:08:45 up if net income was down and get a good understanding of why? I don't think any of us put Home Depot and lows in the category of companies that have great pricing power, but it is interesting, as you indicated, both of them were able to see their average ticket rise due largely to inflation and essentially pass the inflationary costs onto the customers without missing too much of a beat. In terms of Home Depot, that stat of sort of traffic, dropping five quarters in a row. How many more quarters does that happen before investors start to make that the number one worry?
Starting point is 00:09:24 It should probably be the number one worry right now. Now, to offset that, the average transaction value has increased over the past five quarters. So there's your offset. But maybe that offset can't continue forever, and that is something we have to keep an eye on for sure. Shares of deer are down a bit on Friday after a mixed third quarter report. heavy equipment makers' revenue came in higher than expected, but profits were light, and deer also cut guidance for the full fiscal year. This doesn't make anybody's list of high-flying
Starting point is 00:09:57 stocks, Emily, but interesting to see that deer has held up relative to the market pretty nicely this year. I was going to say, maybe it should be on your list if you're looking for great businesses. While this quarter was somewhat disappointing, sales were still really incredibly strong. They rose 22 percent year-over-year. So if you're looking at this business as just just a tractor business, you're probably evaluating it the wrong way. Now, they did have to cut guidance, though, but if you get into the details of the drivers behind why their guidance changed, it's not as concerning as the headline numbers. They're continuing to struggle against supply chain disruptions. Nearly 50% of their business is outside North America. So
Starting point is 00:10:33 they have very wide-ranging manufacturers across the world, depending on lots of different supplies, and they're having to pay more to get those deliveries to meet backloads for demand. So this is very much a narrative we've heard over the past couple of years, which is supply really just not meeting demand, right? Demand outstripping the supply. And that's still the case for John Deere and their core tractors as well as other products. But that slowdown is expected to continue. But the backlog, like I said, still incredible for this business. I think the big question mark is where they bring their technology after this.
Starting point is 00:11:05 Because as I mentioned, they have incredible revenue growth, a really strong business that operates in some sense a monopoly on the technology that they own. which they put into things like AI, machine learning, big data collection. If you want to automate your crop production process, excuse me, I'm not a farmer, but my understanding is improvements that you want to make to your crop production, John Deere is meeting you there, but they have a very closed ecosystem for this technology. So once you come in to the John Deere family, if you will, you are really stuck. It's great for business, but it does irritate some farmers. One restaurant is shaking up its executive team, and one retailer took shareholders on the
Starting point is 00:11:46 mother of all roller coaster rides this week. Details after the break. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Chris Hill here in studio with Emily Flippin and Ron Gross. Quick word about Fool Fest. Our annual investing conference is a two-day event, August 29th and 30th. We've got breakout sessions on different investing strategies.
Starting point is 00:12:15 We've got a great lineup of speakers. ex-CEO Brian Fairbanks, venture capitalist Jenny Abramson, bestselling author Morgan Housel, just to name a few. FoolFest is free if you are a Motley Fool member, and if you're not yet a member, good news. You can sign up for our Stock Advisor service and get a complimentary digital pass to this two-day event. Just go to fool.com slash Foolfest. For more details, that's fool.com slash foolfest. Ron, I know we like to focus on the business, not the stock, but in the case of Bedbath and Beyond this week, we have to talk about this stuff.
Starting point is 00:12:47 We'll make an exception. Yeah, because shares of the challenge retailer started the week at $13, more than doubled due to the company's popularity among meme stock traders, and then shares plummeted on Friday after activist investor Ryan Cohen sold his entire stake more than 7 million shares. The run, shares went from 13 to 29, then down to $11 in the span of one week. Where do I go with this, Chris? First, full disclosure, I was a shareholder, but I sold all my stock last Friday and Monday, August 12th and 15th, thinking I was being given a gift by the Reddit folks and the
Starting point is 00:13:31 meme stock people, because the business is struggling. I originally purchased this company, my thesis being that Mark Tritton, who came over from Target, was going to transform this company in a major way. And he did make some good moves, but he also made some stumbles. And that's where Ryan Cohen entered the picture and said, I want some board seats. Eventually, he was successful in getting Mark Tritton out. And that was interesting to watch, and he owned quite a bit of stock, as you said. Then he came out and said he owned a call option, where he would really only start to make money,
Starting point is 00:14:05 The stock was $60 or above. Again, the stock is around 10, 15. That got some meme people, some Reddit people really interested. And that's when we saw like a 75% increase in the stock in one day. Subsequent to that, he ends up selling everything. Now, there are calls for the SEC to investigate, saying that this sounds like market manipulation, where he made the stock rise significantly so he could unload. I don't have an opinion about whether that is the definition of manipulation or not. It certainly was a weird week. I'll say that for sure. But Bedbeth now does continue to struggle. The question really on my mind is, do they have the balance sheet to transform themselves once again? Do they have the time? And they probably don't unless they
Starting point is 00:14:53 sell something like Bye Bye Baby or make some major changes. And it's worth of remembering. Ryan Cohen started Chewy. He affected some manner of turnaround at GameStop. It's reasonable to go back in time when he entered the picture for Bedbath and Beyond and think, well, here's someone who has a pretty good track record with retailers. Maybe he can help this one. But as you said, in his wake is a business that is going to have to raise money one way or the other.
Starting point is 00:15:23 For sure. And what Triton did when he came in is he started selling non-core businesses, like the Christmas tree shops. and some real estate and some other things. And I said, okay, this is good. And he wiped out the whole C-suite and put in new executives. I said, okay, now this is good. He was going to move to private label as he did with Target.
Starting point is 00:15:41 I said, okay, this all makes sense. He went way too far. He went private label to the max and really hurt the business. And now they've got to dig out from under that. Starbucks chief operating officer John Culver is leaving the company after more than 20 years with the coffee chain. And rather than replace him, Starbucks announced, It is eliminating the position of Chief Operating Officer.
Starting point is 00:16:03 Three-time CEO Howard Schultz has promised bold changes with more details expected on September 13th at Starbucks Investor Day, which Emily, fairly or unfairly, I feel like Starbucks is raising expectations for a lot of big news on September 13th. Yeah, I mean, here's what Starbucks promised on their Investor Day. They promised insight into Starbucks' quote, reinvention plan, which includes elevating employees, in the customer in-store experience, as well as, quote, a very exciting new digital initiative that will build on the current experience. They spent a lot of time in their most recent quarterly report building up excitement for this, but here's what the market heard. The market heard,
Starting point is 00:16:44 we're going to get a new CEO. So I think a lot of investors are sitting here on the edge of their seat thinking, okay, come investor day, we're going to be hearing about this new CEO. And with the departure of the C-O role, it leads to a question of, okay, well, what is the new CEO going to do with the C-suite because I personally, when I see the departure of an important role at a big company like Chief Operating Officer, it's a little bit of a yellow flag for me. But if we have a CEO who's coming in really sold on this reinvention plan and has a vision that extends beyond just doing more of what Starbucks has done in the past, then maybe it makes sense. Shares of Foot Locker up 20% on Friday after the second quarter results for the athletic
Starting point is 00:17:21 apparel retailer were better than expected. The company also announced that former Alta Beauty CEO, Mary Dillon, will be taking over as CEO of Foot Locker on September 1st. Ron, that is a huge get. That is a massive win in terms of hiring. Mary Dillon is probably one of the most respected retail CEOs out there right now. And so, as you say, that is huge. And her experience with moving a retailer, which is primarily brick and mortar, to more of an online presence like she did with Alta, will bode well, I think, for Foot Locker shareholders and for the company. So that is, I think, mostly what the market is reacting to with that stock being up so much.
Starting point is 00:18:03 The quarter was a little bit, sure, it was better than expected, but it was a little bit blah. I mean, sales were down 9%. Compare comp sales down 10%. The company is in this transition right now, moving away from Nike as its primary supplier. Nike accounted for 70% of merchandise in 2021. So it's essential that they move away and move towards people like Adidas. really right-size that business. Mary Dillon has her work cut out for her both going multi-channel as well as moving away from Nike. If there's anyone that can do it, I think she's got a
Starting point is 00:18:36 fighting chance. But this is a relatively struggling retailer, only trading at nine times. So if you believe in Mary Dillon, it might be an interesting nibble to take. And on the flip side, if someone with her track record of success can't turn this business around, I mean, that may be time to say goodbye to Foot Locker. Let me play devil's advocate here because I'm a huge Mary Dylan fan. I'm an Ulta shareholder, but we've seen big executives come into struggling businesses in the past and really just get a nice paycheck and then move on. I think about Marvin Ellison at J.C. Penny as an example.
Starting point is 00:19:09 So you'll want to make sure this is not just a stepping stone for Dylan where she's going to get a pretty penny and then walk away leaving shareholders holding the bag. Foot Locker, the next JCPenney. You heard it here. All right, Emily Flipping, Ron Gross. We will see you later on in the show. But up next, a closer look at the entertainment industry. with Bloomberg reporter Lucas Shaw.
Starting point is 00:19:28 Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Full Money. I'm Chris Hill. Lucas Shaw is a reporter for Bloomberg. He covers the entertainment industry and writes a newsletter about Hollywood called Screen Time. Ricky Mulvey caught up with Shaw to talk about Warner Brothers Discovery. The company's stock has been cut in half this year, so the conversation focused on how Warner Brothers Discovery is consolidating and evolving. Warner Brothers CEO David Zazlov isn't out here to make friends.
Starting point is 00:20:19 He shut down the CNN Plus streaming service just weeks after its launch. More recently, he's axed $130 million worth of nearly finished films. And he's laying off workers at HBO Max. Lucas, what is Zazlov's strategy here? Is it just cutting and consolidating? I'm confused of what he's going for other than slashing and burning. Well, anytime you have a merger of two big companies that have a lot of overlapping businesses, you can expect there to be some cuts, hence the layoffs and all of those synergies or redundancies
Starting point is 00:20:49 or whatever language the corporate chieftains like to use. Zazov promised a lot of them in this case. I think he initially promised $3 billion that he could trim from the combined budget. He has since said there might even be more of that. So there's a degree to which there's just a lot of cutting that was going to be inevitable. I also think, look, Zazov's historically run a very tight ship at Discovery. They make low-cost programming. They do so with a relatively small staff.
Starting point is 00:21:14 Warner Media, which she's now merged and turned into Warner Brothers Discovery, has historically bit, it's much larger. It's like three or four times a size of discovery. They make high-end programming, very expensive movies, very expensive television shows. They have a lot of different projects in development, which is something that you have when you're doing scripted programming as opposed to unscripted. And I think he just sees a lot of fat, if you will, a lot of things that he can cut. And then he's still figuring out the big picture strategy.
Starting point is 00:21:44 They have two different streaming services. There's HBO Max and there's Discovery Plus. He has made clear that he wants to push them together and then sell it at three different price points, likely one that's free, one that's maybe ad supported and cheaper, and then one that's premium and no ads. And he's in the process of figuring out what that looks like, and that means a lot of, you know, shufflin and unfortunately people losing their jobs. Projects are canceled all the time.
Starting point is 00:22:10 Creators are then upset about. that. The story feels a little different with some of the movies and cancellations at Warner Brothers Discovery. Is it because that these projects were so close to completion or the relationship management that Zazlov has with a lot of these creators? I guess, why does this story seem different than other cancellations? Well, it is pretty unusual in the case of a movie like a Bat Girl to have something that is almost done that you have already spent about $90 million on and decide to just eat it. You're not going to put it on, you're not going to release in theaters. You're not going to release it on the streaming service. I think there's a couple of things
Starting point is 00:22:44 at play here. One is just a shift in strategy at the company. Jason Kailard, who had run Warner Media under AT&T, was a big believer in streaming. He was commissioning original movies for the streaming service. He was collapsing the window or the time between when a movie is released in theaters and then made available at home on streaming. Zazlev's taking the company in the other direction. He is reprioritizing the theatrical release and having a longer exclusive window. and exclusive run in theaters. And Batgirls impart a casualty of that. It was a relatively expensive movie as far as streaming movies go,
Starting point is 00:23:19 and he doesn't want to make movies at that budget there. There is also a tax benefit to releasing it or to cutting it in this way. He's just trying to write off as much as he can right after doing this deal because he can get some kind of tax break on it. And so that's why I think you're seeing something that is quite unusual in the case of those movies getting shelved. You're also seeing TV shows and movies that were released being scrubbed from the platform and written down because they feel like there's not much of an audience for it. In those cases, it's pretty forgettable projects, projects that not a lot of people watch.
Starting point is 00:23:52 There was a Seth Rogen movie American Pickle. There was a couple of reality shows like Craftopia and Baketopia. I don't think that longer term you're going to see him do that with a bunch of projects. I think a lot of this is related to the fact that the merger was just completed. you wrote in a recent screen time column, quote, it's common for executives to criticize their predecessors when they take over a new company. It buys them time to deliver results. Zazlov has turned it into an art form repudiating Jason Kyler at every opportunity, end quote.
Starting point is 00:24:22 How is this so different and why does this repudiation stand out in your mind? Just how consistent and thorough they've been in saying how bad the people before them were. I mean, look, it's pretty common. But for example, Disney acquired a lot of assets from Fox. the Fox Film and TV studio. They acquired Fox cable networks like FX. They acquired Fox's steak and Hulu. And most of the Fox movies have been dogs. They have not performed well. They, you know, you didn't see, the CEO of Disney did acknowledge that there were some problems with that, but they didn't come out and be like, you know what? We just acquired a bunch of shitty movies.
Starting point is 00:25:00 And, you know, the people who, the people we bought this from, they didn't know what they're doing, you know, and we just have to clean it up. They were a little more diplomatic about it. I think Zazlev and his team have a tendency to be pretty direct, but also they're trying to manage expectations. Look, they've taken on a much bigger challenge than they've ever had before. And Jason Kailar had a very particular vision, and he comes from a tech background. Zazov's sort of the opposite. He comes from a cable network background. And so I think their views of the world are just opposed in a pretty fundamental way.
Starting point is 00:25:33 And so that's leading to him coming out and talking about all the problems in the business. that they did not anticipate. And Kyler did have some issues with talent, particularly under the same day streaming release strategy, famously getting Christopher Nolan to leave Warner Brothers. Now with these cuts of movies and cancellations, do you think there's a longer-term threat for Warner Brothers in terms of alienating top-level talent? You know, it's hard to say. There was a lot of, there was a narrative that Kyler alienated talent, and he certainly pissed off
Starting point is 00:26:05 some of their representatives who then squawked to the president. press because agents, lawyers, managers, they tend to be pretty good sources for people like me. I will say, I think a lot of that was overblown. If you look in the big picture, they ended up paying everyone a lot of money and treating every movie released in theaters and streaming at the same time like it was a hit, which most of them would not have been. And I think in that case, the money had healed a lot of the wounds. One of the issues was definitely around communication at the time that people didn't feel like they knew ahead of time. My understanding is that the folks Warner Brothers did start to reach out to people to talk to them about it, and it almost immediately
Starting point is 00:26:43 started to leak. And so they didn't have, it's not like they had a bunch of time. It's easier to communicate like that on a one-off project basis, like, say, Disney did with some of its individual titles than a whole slate. And Disney still got in trouble with Scarlett Johansson on that movie. Look, creative people are still happy to work at Warner Media. They have had no problem re-uping and keeping people. There are a lot of talent relationships that the head of Warner Brothers Television Studio has, that the head of HBO programming and content have. But there are people looking so much skeptically at David Zazab and being like, are you just going to come in and cut costs? Do you respect what we're doing? Do you understand what we're doing? I think that happens
Starting point is 00:27:22 whenever a relative outsider or even just a new boss comes into Hollywood, which is a very clubby community. If he is willing to spend money on projects, then people will be fine with him. If he develops a reputation as someone who micromanages, someone who doesn't want to spend money, someone who just meddles in the creative process, that could damage relationships long term. It was interesting under Kyler's leadership when they were sharing statistics about the movies coming out particularly in 2020 and declaring every one of them being a hit when they weren't really sharing many statistics about why they were a hit. Looking at the whole streaming landscape, you've written about how these services are now
Starting point is 00:28:01 no longer growing in the United States. The exception would be Paramount Plus probably. And streaming's only about one-third of TV viewing. Do you think that's kind of the ceiling for it? No. Okay. I think you'll see because streaming share has been growing. I mean, it's not like a rocket ship anymore, but it's still picking up.
Starting point is 00:28:20 And it's cyclical a little bit in that the summer is a good time for streaming because there's not a lot of sports. And sports is really what people watch on pay TV for the most part. I think in the fall, TV share will go up both because of sports and because of the midterm elections, which again, news people watch on linear. But longer term, the number of people who pay for a TV service is going down. The amount of time people spend watching linear live TV is going down, and more and more of that will shift to the internet. The question is just how fast and also can these streaming services balance their investment with the growth?
Starting point is 00:28:54 They were investing an insane amount of money because they expected this very rapid growth, which some of them have gotten, but we're now in a moment where investors want to see profit. And so people are being a little more rational about spending, and they'll just be a balancing act. But I think streaming share of overall TV consumption will certainly get closer to 40 and 50%. It's just a question of when. closing out, your colleagues, Felix, Gillette, and Eliza Ronald Hannon wrote a great feature on AMC and CEO, Adam Aaron. The piece discusses very much how Aaron understands loyalty management, building excitement. Do you think there are any lessons from the AMC story from Adam Aaron about building customer loyalty that these streamers could learn from, especially when the switching costs are so low? Not really, only because, look, the AMC case is so unique. It was a business that was in deep trouble where the leadership had not come up, I think, with the obvious answer. It got as much as I do think that Adam Aaron has a decorated history of coming up with kind of customer loyalty programs, like they got failed out by this sort of mean stock and retail investor movement that I don't think at the time, it's not like they were grease in the wheel. for that. They were not ready for it to happen. It happened to them, and then they have managed to
Starting point is 00:30:19 very ably ride that wave. But if you're one of these other media companies, would it be fun if a bunch of people decided to celebrate you and start buying your share? Sure, but that's not something that you're going to plan for. I mean, I think that what they do have to think about is, are there ways to continue to reduce cancellations or what's known as churn in the industry? And do you do that? That's one of the reasons you're seeing maybe lower cost ad tiers. It's one of the reasons that you're seeing people play around with the ways of bundling their service, whether it's with a phone product, like your phone bill or your cable bill or anything like that. That sort of consumer loyalty they want to look at. But I would actually argue
Starting point is 00:30:58 that a lot of the new developments in streaming are less customer-friendly than they have. Then streaming has always been an incredibly consumer-friendly product. But now that there's more pressure to profit, there is experimentation with business practices that are more about earnings in Wall Street than about the customer. Are you specifically talking about ad tiers there and increase prices? As cracking down on password sharing, raising prices, some of the movement away from making movies available at home for streaming earlier. I just think that there's a lot of things that people are doing
Starting point is 00:31:32 that are less consumer-friendly than they have been. Because streaming is still a better experience than cable. If you go back in time, there was a point at which pretty much anything you could want to watch was on either Netflix, Hulu, or Amazon. And the prices were pretty low, and if you wanted, there were no ads. Now, content is fragmented, and prices are going up, and the experience is getting cluttered with other add-ons. Bloomberg's Lucas Shaw. Thank you for your time.
Starting point is 00:32:00 Good, family. Up next, Emily Flippen and Ron Gross return with a couple of stocks on their radar. Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Let's all get on the dance floor. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy yourself stocks based solely on what you hear. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.
Starting point is 00:32:37 Chris Hill here in studio once again with Emily Flippin and Ron Gross. You can hear this show on radio stations across America every week, and you can find the podcast on your favorite podcast app, Apple, Spotify, Google Play, Iheart, Overcast. We are on all the podcast apps, people. And if you're an NFL fan, you're going to want to check out the episode we've got coming this Sunday. It's a conversation with ESPN's NFL analyst, Mina Kimes. Why is an NFL analyst on a show about business and investing, you may ask? Because Mina Kimes started her journalism career covering Wall Street, first for Fortune magazine, then for Bloomberg.
Starting point is 00:33:15 So follow Motley Fool Money on your favorite podcast app so you do not miss a single episode. Shares of Papa Johns are down 30% over the past. but the pizza chain has a new innovation to turn things around. Introducing Papa bowls, a combination of pizza tomings baked together and served in a bowl instead of on a crust. Emily, I guess this is going after the low-carb market? Here's the thing. Papa John's needs to offer me a job because I fix this product for them. Here you go. First of all, don't call it pizza bowl. It sounds like Rose Bowl. I'm expecting some type of pizza eating competition. It doesn't. sound appealing. Here's what you do. You take the bowl, you serve it with breadsticks. You call it
Starting point is 00:33:59 deconstructed pizza. Suddenly, it's an elevated experience. Suddenly, you have millennials, Jinzi. Everybody wants their deconstructed pizza. There, fix it for you, Papa Johns. Wow. I'm speechless. Yeah, I don't have anything to add. Do you? I was going to say this is no good. Pizza's the best thing ever created. Whether you're a calzone, a stromboli, or a pizza, the common element includes bread. don't take my bread away. Let's go to our man behind the glass, Dan Boyd. Dan, I'm sure you have thoughts on this. I want to point something out in their press release for this abomination.
Starting point is 00:34:33 They said that they were trying to get people excited about pizza again, which is the stupidest thing I've ever heard because everybody is constantly excited about pizza the world over. It's so true. I think Emily just solved us. She's a big thinker. I'm in the wrong industry, clearly. I think too much about pizza to Dan's point. Spen way too much time thinking about pizza, not enough time thinking about stocks.
Starting point is 00:34:58 No, but I'll just build on Dan's comment because it reminds me of dip in dots, the horrific company that claims to have invented the future of ice cream, when really the future of ice cream is what we have right now. It's ice cream's fine. Don't try and fix it. All right, let's get to the radar stocks. I'm all upset now. Ron Gross, what are you looking at?
Starting point is 00:35:20 I'm looking at American Tower, AMT, down only 9% from its 52-week-high. So we've seen a bit of a rebound here. 25% off its low. American Tower is a real estate investment trust. They own 220,000 communications towers in 20 countries. They lease space on those towers to wireless carriers, think 18T, Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobile. So those companies can place hardware needed to provide their services. They also operate 1,800 indoor and outdoor antenna systems, 27 data centers in the U.S.
Starting point is 00:35:55 Their expansion into data centers, I think, will lead to multiple expansion opportunities for this company. They're in a very strong position in this interconnected world we live in. Keep an eye on the balance sheet, $49 billion in debt. They're not afraid to make an acquisition, and that's important to keep an eye on. And stock has delivered 17% total annualized returns over the last decade. I still think it looks good from here. Dan, question about American Tower? Okay, numbers.
Starting point is 00:36:23 How many towers do they have? 220,000. And how much debt do they have? 49 billion. Okay, so you had me here until you said debt of 49 billion. What's their revenue? Well, significant. I don't have the exact number in front of me, I will admit.
Starting point is 00:36:43 But let me throw you one more number. 37 consecutive quarters of dividend increases. Two percent yield at the moment. Not too shabby. Wow, these numbers are wild. Emily Flippin, what are you looking at this week? Well, I'm looking at a company that will wake everybody up from that nice little nap they had. Well, Ron was talking about AMT. Oh, dare you. I'm teasing. But it is a very exciting company.
Starting point is 00:37:03 The company is Rover Group. The ticker is ROVR. Rover runs a marketplace for pet services like dog walking and cat sitting. And they had an amazing second quarter results. Their revenue is up 77%. Gross booking value up nearly 60%. Free cash flow margins of 35% in the quarter. But more importantly, they're also growing their market share. They're now 13 times larger than their next largest competitor. So they're dominating the space. A really underappreciated company. Demand my fault, depending on travel and such. But I think the company itself fundamentally is really strong. Dan, question about Rover Group? I mean, I kind of feel like Emily's stepping on my toes here by roasting Ron and his boring stockpakes. Like, I feel, okay, Rover, sure, good company, whatever. Who cares? Like, maybe Emily should stay in her lane, though. Very good point. If I can wake everybody up again, sorry. Let me put myself back in my lane here. There are questions about a rover that may make you less excited, one of them being the experience.
Starting point is 00:38:03 You have one bad experience on Rover, right? You have a bad pet sitter. Something happens to your pet. That ruins this. company for you. And I'll tell you what, the word of mouth that they have, it can also go in the opposite direction as well. So you really want to make sure the quality is staying high. We've seen businesses like Airbnb benefit from word of mouth in that they don't have to spend a lot on advertising. Is that similar to Rover Group, where they depend more on word of mouth and they're not paying a lot for marketing? Exactly that. Their marketing expenses are extremely low, which allows them to generate a lot of cash flow. The vast majority of customers are
Starting point is 00:38:35 gained via word of mouth. But again, one bad experience. That goes the other way. Which we had at the full with a co-worker and everyone was up in arms. Myself included. That's how the company came to my attention. Very interesting. Two very different businesses, Dan. You got a stock you want to add to your watch list? I'll tell you what. I think my brain is probably a little too smooth to like figure out the numbers involved in AMT, to be honest.
Starting point is 00:38:58 So I'm going to go with Rover. I do have pets at home. And whenever we leave for a vacation or something, getting care for them, it can kind of be a pain in the neck. So I think I'm interested in Rover. Emily Flippin, Brian Gross. Thanks so much for being here. Thanks, Chris. That's going to do it for this week's Motley Full Money Radio show. The show is Mixed by Dan Boyd.
Starting point is 00:39:17 I'm Chris Hill. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next time.

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