Motley Fool Money - Soaring Stocks and EVTOLs

Episode Date: March 6, 2024

Target and Crowdstrike are flying after earnings, and in a few years you might be able to take off in an EVTOL.  (00:21) Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Target finally finding its footing, and how the company is turning to loyalty programs for more growth. - Crowdstrike’s results showing enterprise spend on cybersecurity isn’t slowing down. - Bitcoin’s spot-ETF fueled rise to all-time highs. (16:53) Motley Fool Money’s Deidre Woollard talks with analyst Sanmeet Deo about the highly speculative, highly futuristic world of EVTOLs and personal air travel. Companies discussed: TGT, CRWD, BTC, JOBY, ACHR Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Asit Sharma, Deidre Woollard, Sanmeet Deo Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Target's back on track, and CrowdStrike hits all-time highs. Motleyful money starts now. I'm Dylan Lewis, and I'm joined over the airwaves by Motley Fool analyst, Asit Sharma. Asit, thanks for joining me today. Dylan, thanks for having me. We've got stories of companies soaring today on earnings and in the sky with the future of personal air travel. We're going to start with the earnings results, and we're going to start with a look at Target. Asit, kind of an interesting quarterly report for the company.

revenue slid, comps were down, but results were ahead of expectations, and we saw a huge market reaction. Stocks up 15% after reporting. Target's been working on some nice parts of their business, Dylan. I really like that their cost of sales has been held in check for a while, and it keeps decreasing. So that way, if you get just these small bumps on the top line, the revenues increase like 1.7%. You can leverage that if you're watching your costs, the cost of product. and how you manage those costs before you get to your overhead expenses, which of course climbed a little bit. But, look, profitability is up this quarter. Operating income was $1.9 billion

versus $1.2 billion in the same period last year. So investors like an earnings story. Yeah, and I think probably something helping that top line and those margins, inventory. It seems like the company has gotten a lot better with managing its inventory, hasn't had to resort to discounting quite as much. This is something that really plagued. this business about a year ago, and it seems like that's gotten back on track for them. Yes. Management has been talking about all the dislocations that occurred during the pandemic. In fact, in this latest call for this quarter, they said the dislocations are still ongoing. It's not like we still aren't struggling, but matching inventory to demand, that's something

that Target has gotten much better with over the last couple of years. Inventories at very similar sales levels are down. this time last year, $13.5 billion was the inventory balance at the end of January, 2023. That's down to $11.9 billion as of February 3rd, 2024. So I kind of look at this quarter as a, okay, we're back on track with the core business. We've kind of right-size what we need to be doing with the balance sheet. We seem to have found what we need to be doing when it comes to pricing for Target. We also got a glimpse at some of the growth initiatives and some of the next step type things that they want to, you know,

kind of re-engage with their customers on. And one of the things that I wanted to draw some attention on and get your take on here is the membership program. They are launching Circle 360. This is a paid membership program, and Asset seemingly their answer to Amazon Prime and Walmart Plus. It's something that's been in the works for a while, Dylan. They acquired a company called Shipped S-H-I-P-T a few years ago.

Actually, in 2017. And Target has been working on optimizing same-day delivery, local deliveries, over this past six years since they bought that company. At the same time, they've worked with their store formats. They've opened more stores. They have more points of presence where consumers are. And they've opened a lot more distribution centers, logistics centers. So their fulfillment capacity is way stronger than it was before the pandemic. The natural progression for them now is to try to get some of this business that Amazon and Walmart have been enjoying,

both of which companies have great infrastructure themselves. And I think where Target may have an edge here, at least initially, is this price point. If you don't pay your Amazon Prime subscription a year in advance, you're shelling out $16 a month for all that convenience. While most of the inventory will be focused on Target items for $49. a year subscription, I think that's something many consumers would want to try. And there are local marketplaces that Target promotes through its ship capabilities. So this is very interesting, and it's also just a progression as Target becomes more Amazon.com. Like, they are also now expanding their digital advertising with vendors and then they have a digital advertising

revenue stream. So it seems natural. I do think we'll have to see how good they are at this business, but maybe now is the right time to roll it out. I do kind of wonder, as we see all of the kind of traditional retailers and retailers that have kind of gotten into e-commerce a little bit faster, focus on these membership programs. I mean, Costco is there first, right? They're the OG in the space, but we've seen Amazon do it so well. We've seen Walmart do it so well, and Target now trying to focus more on it.

If we're going to see consumers really focus more of their purchasing at a single retailer, and have a little bit less of the average spend splitting out across multiple retailers. That would be the loyalty program for a lot of these businesses working the way they intend for them to. I think so, but the U.S. consumer is so crazily agile. In fact, Target pointed out on their conference call, look, you might not know this, but two-thirds of business still occurs in store, that consumers still likes to shop in store. We seem to have a lot of capacity for having multiple subscription and loyalty programs going on at one time.

We shift our preferences. We'll shop more in store than suddenly get on a wave of ordering things online. The customer is nimble. I think what Target has figured out is there probably isn't going to be a winner. They're not going to be a sole winner in this space. The Costco's, Amazon, Walmart's are going to be around. New entrants will come. People still love small businesses, craft businesses.

But where Target wants to be is in that muscle category. They've poured a lot of their billions in free cash flow into great ideas in subsequent years. Those great ideas happen to be store openings and fulfillment. So they take cash that's left over after investing in physical capacity and invest it in the next years. I think that's something that's going to help them out. They'll be one of the last one standing. If it ever does become like that, Dylan, if we ever narrow our funds, we're going to be a lot of

and just shop from a few vendors still, I think they're going to be there. While we're checking in on the consumer asset, I think we saw a lot of the same signs that we've been seeing in Target's results. Not as much focus on some of the bigger, more expensive items in the stores, a lot of focus on affordability with consumers. And I think one initiative that really caught my eye with respect to that is Dealworthy, which is one of their new, low-priced private brands, looking to bring a lot of products in under $10.00. As we look at a retailer like Target as a barometer for what's going on with the consumer, what are you seeing?

Consumers have a lot of propensity to bite on offers like this. When you see out in the marketplace, there's a part of the store where you can go in. I think $7 is another price point they mentioned. It draws you into that place. Now, the dollar stores have been doing this for a long time, but our needs go beyond that. And Target, you've got price points that may get you in the door. at $7 or $10 or to order online from. But they also extend all the way up into fairly high-priced consumer electronics.

And that's where they've always excelled. Target environments are meant to be a mix of different brands. In fact, they've talked about this. Their own brand portfolio, their private brand portfolio, they say would be a Fortune 100 company with $30 billion of sales annually. one-third of their gross margin. So they understand that you've got to have so many different price points. And they do it through a mix of their own brands, brands that the public loves. They have the partnership with Alta Beauty. And then also bringing in what they call

the celebrity brands like Disney, and then partnering with Starbucks in stores. So they really want to lure you in with those price points. But I think it's a good strategy. They have a little bit of an edge over the consumers who are exhausted financially and are stuck going to the dollar stores and discount stores. They're attracting some of those, but also people with a little bit more to spend who still want a bargain to come in. All right. We also saw a great market reaction from CrowdStrike results. It shares up 20% following earnings that beat on the top and bottom lines. Plus, the company issued stronger than expected guidance for the upcoming quarter and full year.

Osset, so much of the narrative in the enterprise space has been slowing customer spend, maybe a little bit of a hard focus on the contracts that exist. It doesn't seem like that's affecting CrowdStrike too negatively. It's funny. We've heard so many CEOs of cybersecurity companies talk about this exhaustion in IT departments. They are pulling back their budgets, even on the last thing you'd expect. You have to protect your enterprise, right? But CrowdStrike isn't seeing any of that.

And I think this is tied into an argument they've been making for a long time, which is there are too many products you have to buy to protect your organization. I think on their website, they say that IT folks have to juggle like 42 products, on average, just to protect the organization. And if you all who are listening ever just want to have some fun and amusement, listen to CEO George Kurtz, diss the company, petition on a conference call. He doesn't hold back. And he loves to talk about how complex it is to ensure that your organization will be protected from strikes and how inadequate

the different types of piecemeal offerings are. So from the ground up, they've always made this argument, Dylan. We designed Falcon, our security platform is cloud native. It's one agent. It's lightweight. You turn it on. You can add modules. This is a really seductive argument for companies that are paying so many different vendors and then spending time, money, resources to try to stitch them all together. The argument of a platform like Falcon is that you don't have all that stitching. So while other folks may price at a lower price point, our return on investment is much higher over time.

And you're starting to see that prove out in the numbers. A free cash flow margin of 31%. They're projecting that revenue is going to increase another billion this year from 2.7 billion, or almost 2.9 billion, sorry, up to $3.9 billion in a year. All of their metrics hitting that 30 percent, if you're talking about revenue growth, annualized recurring revenue growth. I think they're really enjoying a moment just because the simplicity argument is bearing out in the marketplace. You mentioned the recurring revenue as a focus there. In the results, Burt Pott, you know,

Bodbier, their CFO, reiterated the company's long-term guidance of hitting 10 billion in annual recurring revenue by 2030. That currently hits 3.4 billion. And so they have a bit of a ways to go from there, but it sounds like, Osset, you're fairly confident in that mission. I am because I think management has a pretty good roadmap to get there. What they've done is to look at the parts of the cybersecurity industry where they can add value, if they're competing against really worthy competitors. So they have an identity management

system that competes against ACTA. They've got a sort of observability platform that competes against the likes of Splunk. But where they see they can offer that return, they go there. They take years to build out those products and they add them to the platform. And there's an uptake by customers. The other thing I like about it is that big round numbers really inspire a lot of confidence among employees. Service now, which I talk about a lot, okay, they've been great at doing this. We want to be a $3 billion. No, we want to be a, they don't even get the next number out of their mouths and they change it. They up it. We want to be a $10 billion company. That's actually a rallying cry that Service now was issuing just a few years ago. But I think this inspires

confidence among vendor partners. It gives employees something to work towards. It really galvanizes the sales team. And it makes the product team understand that, We've got to execute on the roadmap. If we do the simple math of working backward, what is it going to take for us to reach this number? By 2030, it means we've got to add another four pieces to the platform by 20. I'm making this up, but you get the picture by 27. I think running a business that way, if you've got the product, which is superior in the marketplace, yeah, why not? Go for it. Crowdstrike at all-time highs after reporting earnings and And stepping outside of stocks, Bitcoin at all-time highs, the cryptocurrency hit near $69,000

this week. And Osset, this has been a strong 2024 so far for the cryptocurrency, I think in large part, because of the spot ETFs that were approved back in January. I agree with you, Dylan. There was so much demand that was being built up late last year, as investors were waiting for this to happen. Just the publicity around that, I think, dribbled down into the consciousness of so many types of investors, the investor who looked at Bitcoin a few years ago and was like, I'm not going to

try to custody these assets. How do even do that? Or I don't want a Coinbase account. They keep asking me to re-verify my identity every six minutes. I think that this was pent-up demand is now really, it has an outlet. But there's another investor as well that I'm interested in. That's the institutional investor who's looking at a period of prolonged high interest rates and not a lot of great options to generate alpha that is return on a risk-adjusted basis outside of U.S. stocks. Again, this happens. We have periods, long periods, where the U.S. stock market is the only game in town for

a lot of institutions that have billions that they have to invest. So I think there's some of that money flowing in, too. It's a non-correlative asset, so it doesn't move in tandem with the market. It's even proven to be non-correlative to risk assets like gold, which is an argument I heard at the early days. Like, oh, it'll attract gold. Yeah. But you were saying something that was very interesting before we started taping, Dylan, that

outside of the store value argument, there is a financial argument. This is like a financial instrument. Yeah, I think, you know, I don't have a horse in the race when it comes to crypto. I don't own any cryptocurrencies, but I think it's instructive to look at this and the way that markets work and financial products work, right? We have long wondered what exactly the utility might be for crypto, and with spot ETF's opening up, we are seeing a source of demand and another use case for these. And look no further than the fund inflows and the money.

You mentioned that there's probably some institutional investors there. Over $50 billion have gone into the spot ETF funds since January. That's not all retail money. And that's immediately creating demand and purchase for something that's going to drive up the value. And I think regardless of whether you see the utility in this, it's useful to look at it and just understand the way that expanding access to something drives demand long term. Yeah, I think that's spot on.

Not to make a pun on spot ETS, but there you go. That's too good. Yeah, the utility is the ability to diversify or to investor. Take a little bit of risk in a low cost manner, which is what ETS are designed to do. All right. Awesome. Thanks for joining me today. Always fun, Dylan.

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for free shipping and 365-day returns. Quince.com slash motley. Coming up, our travel three days. theme week continues with a look at the not so distant future of flying jets and mobiles. Motleyful Money's Deidre Wollard talks with analysts, Sandmeet Deo about the highly speculative, highly futuristic world of eve tolls and personal air travel. When we talk flying cars, we're not really talking flying cars. We're talking about evetoles. What is it eve toll? It's electric, vertical, take off, and landing. So it usually means it's a small

vehicle. It's kind of like a helicopter meets a giant drone, takes off like a helicopter. mostly flies like a plane, usually short range, generally, maybe four passengers. I mean, you've taken a look at some of the videos. They're not that pretty, are they? Yeah, a lot of them are not that pretty. There's so many cons, they kind of look like those, you know, you see those concept cars. Some of them look like these concept vehicles. I even saw a single passenger EV toll that was really, really odd looking.

I had all these propellers, like multiple propellers. although I will say maybe I'm biased, but there is one that's being made by Archer Aviation, which we'll talk about later, called their Midnight. And that one is actually pretty sleek-looking. Well, they did give it the cool name. Yes. And it looks very, I showed it to my wife,

and she said, this looks very Batman-like. I'm like, yeah, now not all of them are going to look as, like, you know, like dark and mysterious and cool, and they're going to have paint and they're going to have logos and stuff. But still, we're getting closer to some nice, looking nicer looking ones. It does appeal to our sort of superhero fantasies, I think. But I want to talk a little bit about the use cases because, you know, it seems sort of fantastical. You know, the things that we saw in science fiction were like air freeways. This is not quite where we're

going. They're pricey. They're around $5 million. I mean, they're not really for sale yet. But most obvious use case seems to be some of the way we're using helicopters, which is air taxis in urban areas. But I think as they get cheaper, there might be other applications. What else could we use these for? Yeah. And the other thing, before I get to that, one thing to keep in mind is for our listeners, that this isn't something that would be something each of us, obviously you name the price. So it's quite a lot. None of us have really $5 million just laying around to buy one of these. But it's not, flying cars gets a little confusing because it's not something that, you know, like you're going to have one. I'm going to have one. Or family's going to have one.

we're all going to be flying around, like the Jetsons, like, in flying cars. These are more kind of commercial, you know, mass transit-type vehicles or even, like, Uber-like, you know, ride-sharing or flight sharing type vehicles. But, I mean, I can imagine, you know, it being used for cargo delivery, short, short-haul cargo delivery, transport around the cities. I can see it as being very useful for. But, yeah, I think the sky's a limp. There's a pun there, but I think the sky's the limit for these.

Yeah, I've even heard of like recreational leagues eventually happening or, you know, sporting sporting events. I mean, I know they had like drone flying leagues. So you never know. But before we can get to that place, we got to bring in the big guns, the federal aviation administration, the FAA. They don't just call them eftoles. They call them advanced air mobility vehicles.

Maybe a little catcher. Maybe not. And it's interesting. They're trying to create rules for, of course, the flights, for who can drive them, for takeoff locations, Vertaports. That's kind of a cool name. So it's kind of important to watch if you're following this industry because it is going to be heavily regulated. But this isn't pie in the sky. I mean, the FAA believes it'll have multiple operators flying between multiple origins and destination by 2028. But 2025 seems to be the date that the companies that we're going to talk about, about are really looking for the initial certification. So we've seen some test flights. They're getting pretty close here. The couple of companies I've seen are looking to even go live in 2025 and beyond. So, you know, they're running test flights.

They're getting approvals from FAA. They're getting some of their certifications. They're getting some of those initial stage certifications. And then they're, you know, they're working for. from there. So it's, it's, they'll be up there sooner than we know. I want to talk a little bit about the companies, because you and I have both been following this space for a little while. I've taken a speculative position in one. I think you've taken a speculative position and the other one that we're going to talk about. I have. And these are, these are, these are, these are,

these are, uh, they're not, they're not making the profits and they're, they're interesting because they're sort of taking different approaches. So I'm going to talk first about, Jobi Aviation. Been public since November 2020, we've put a $4 billion market cap. Their aim is to have commercial passengers next year if they get through that FAA process. One of the things I found particularly fascinating is they recently announced they've got a six-year exclusivity deal in Dubai for air taxis, which means they would be able to run them. And they're also getting some support from the Emirates on that. So really interesting there. With both of these, companies were looking at the partnerships. And one of the reasons the stock for both Archer and

Joby has kind of gone up and continues to go up is strength of partnerships. So with Joby, you've got very close partnership with Delta. You've got a partnership with Toyota. You've got interests from the Department of Defense. And speaking about Delta, they're planning with Delta for infrastructure at three airports, JFK, LaGuardia, and LAX. So they're building out production. which is interesting. It's going to be a slow process. Their next milestone is to ramp up production. Looking at the cash, of course, these companies are spending a lot of money. So at the end of last year, Joby had about a billion in cash. They spent $344 million during the year. For next year, or this year, rather, they're going to spend between $440 and $470 million. Part of that is just the nature of trying to ramp up production.

this is all expensive. And one of the things that's interesting is it's sort of a new thing, but they're also using existing technology. Another thing to know about Joby is major investors. I mentioned Delta. They've got about 1.6 percent. Intel's got about 4.5 percent. You've got a lot of interest from other investors like BlackRock, taking a look at this company. It's gotten farther faster than I would have expected. And I bought in, I think about two years ago. And, The company has really, you know, just after it went public, and the company has really grown dramatically since then. Yeah, Joby's a very interesting one as well.

And so the other one that I've taken, you know, a speculative position in as well. And for listeners, keep in mind, you know, these are pre-revenue, not even pre-profits. They're pre-revenue. They don't, they haven't sold anything yet, really. They do have some orders, but those can, you know, backfire. Those could not happen. So they're just orders. So Archer Aviation, it tickers A-C-H-R.

So it's about a $1.4 billion market cap company, so a little smaller than Joby. And they've also been public since December 2020. They came public actually as a SPAC, and they have some pretty impressive investors. Their largest investor is Stalantis, which you might know as the auto company. So you'd be wondering, well, why, as an auto company, taking an interest investment in them? They also have a partnership with Stalantis. And really, I'll get to that part later. But Mark Lohr, founder of diapers.com and Jet.com, also was previously, I believe it was the president of e-commerce at Walmart.

He owns about 9%. Stalantis owns about 13%. And then United Airlines owns about 4%. So they're a major investor and partner. So Archer has a goal of being first to market, and they're looking to go live in 2025. One of the things that I found very interesting about Archer was that, They, since their start, have been focused on a quick path to certification. So they're really focused on producing these things and getting them certified and up in the air.

80% of their subsystems and components are derived from certification heritage, which means these are parts and systems that have already been certified in other aircraft or certified designs in other aircraft. So they can assemble all these different parts that are already certified, put it together, and then the certification process becomes a little quicker. So that's pretty cool. They're building a huge manufacturing facility in Georgia, and that they're hoping to eventually produce 650 aircraft annually once they started getting up and going. And they're looking at their businesses is really with two revenue streams. Both estimate to be about 50% of their mix. One is just selling the aircraft, selling them to the major airlines, selling them to whoever else. But also aerial ride sharing. So think of like Uber for the air, for Uber ride sharing. but in flight. And actually one of the executives on their team started the Uber Air Flight ride sharing program.

He came over, and they're estimating that, you know, ride sharing for these, or flight sharing, I should say, I don't know what they're going to call it now, but is estimated to be about $3 per seat mile. So that's kind of in line with pricing with Uber, very close. So that should be very interesting to see how they ramp and work on that. As a company, they have no debt. They have about $460 million in cash. They have an order book of $700 aircrafts worth potentially $3.5 billion. So, again, that is potential revenue.

It's not stuff they have had come in. A lot can go wrong before they actually get that money. But the interesting thing, another interesting thing is their partnership with Stalantis, who's also an investor, is, you know, Stalantis, if you don't know, is like the third largest auto manufacturer. You know, they make jeeps and, you know, various other brands. And they're actually using them as almost like a contract manufacturer. You know, they, you think of cars and they have the assembly line, the process to create high-quality

vehicles at mass scale very efficiently. And so by partnering with Stalantis, they're hoping to do the same for their aircraft. And it helps reduce the capital requirements that Archer will have. and increase their cash flow when it comes to manufacturing the aircraft. So I thought that was very unique. I don't know if that's what other companies are doing or not, but I thought that was quite interesting. So as we wrap up, wondering what you think about,

what investors should think about as they look at this industry. For me, as I mentioned, small speculative stake in Jobi, looking, you know, I've liked what I've seen so far, may consider like adding more if it meets its targets. So things I'm asking myself is what is the total addressable market? Like who is the customer? It's not, to me, it's not like EVs, as we talk about, it's not an individual flying car at this point. Could it be at some point? Possibly. Is this more like the early days of helicopters where you see sort of gradual increased usage? That seems more likely to me, looking at the market opportunity, wondering what I need to see to add more,

and also what could go wrong. We haven't had a big disaster, but that will happen the same way it's happened for other things. So what are you looking at here? The market opportunity is, you know, this could be pie in the sky numbers because, you know, this is so early stage. but Morgan Stanley predicts that it could be $29 billion by 2030 and possibly over a trillion by 2040. So that has obviously wiggle room. We don't know for sure. But regardless, it's a huge market. If you assume that this will work, they can get the certifications, that they can kind of get these in the air, that it will happen, it's going to be a big market.

and it definitely will have room for multiple players, you know, and multiple ways of approaching the problem. And what's exciting to me about the industry, too, is I think it is a little bit of the early days of helicopters, and they've referenced that in some of their calls of, you know, this is kind of the new-age helicopter. The reason helicopters weren't successful for the same purpose was very high noise in an urban area, like in New York City, San Francisco, you know, big cities, the last thing people are going to want is all that noise flying around,

above you and then having to hear it. Also, you know, they weren't electric. So having the all-electric purpose gives it more of the cleanliness and the environmental friendliness that we're trending towards getting away from the pollution from helicopters or cars or reducing that kind of congestion. So, you know, to me, it's like, yeah, I mean, like many of the signals is I'll be looking for, you know, certification. How's that going? Because that's going to play a huge part. And if these things even like get up off the ground. And, you know, one interesting thing that I was listening to a video with the CEO of Archer that he said was the United States has an opportunity to continue to have the lead

on aircraft and mobility. And it really will be up to, he said, if the one thing he could really have to push this industry forward would be for the FAA and regulation to really be accommodating and really really help drive it forward to maintain or control lead in this space because other countries are going to do it. They are already doing it. So really regulation and how the certification stuff goes is key. And then also just safety. You know, it's like, like you said, I think some of these test pilots have had crashes and that's inevitable. You're seeing even with autonomous vehicles on the road, you know, the crashes are going to happen as they, as they, as they

prove these out, you know, that's why the certification is very important. And, you know, the trust in customers saying, am I going to get in one of these things and be safe and feel safe? Helicopters have a little bit of sense from people of like on safety. So trust in safety will definitely be a huge part. And that's going to just happen from as they start flying these things. Yeah, absolutely. So if the CEO of Archer calls you a tomorrow. Are you taking a test flight? Ooh, that's a tough question. No, because you know, I'm usually a first mover on a lot of products.

Like if I were to use the Applevision Pro, there's not much risk to my life. There is a much higher risk to that. So I don't want to be the first one. But if I see evidence of lots of flights being successful, then maybe I would. Would you? I would. If the CEO of Jobb wants to call me up and take a flight, I'm down. As always, people on the program may own stocks mentioned, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so no buyer selling anything based solely on what you hear. I'm Dylan Lewis. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.