Motley Fool Money - Spicy Stocks & Tools for Smart Thinking

Episode Date: October 2, 2015

The government reports surprising unemployment numbers. Automakers report surprising sales. And rumors fly around Twitter's next CEO. Our analysts discuss those stories and psychology professor Richard Nisbett shares some insights from his new book, Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Jeff Fisher, and from Motley Fool Deep Value Ron Gross. Good to see you as always, gentlemen. Hey, hey, Chris. We've got the latest earnings from Wall Street. We've got two apparel retail stocks going in Ophibers. going in opposite directions. And as always, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar. But we begin this week with the big macro. The jobs report out Friday morning was disappointing, even though unemployment stayed at 5.1%. And earlier in the week, U.S. auto sales for September. Surprisingly strong, Ron Gross, with sales up around 15 percent overall. When you look across the big macro for this week, what stands out to you?

I think I'll highlight that U-6 unemployment rate that I like to chat about every now. And again, it's that broader measure of employment. Fell to 10%, haven't been there since June of 2008. I like to see it. If it gets between 8 and 10%, then I really like what I say, because that's a good number. But on this flip side of that, you can't not mention the labor participation rate, which fell to its lowest rate since October 1997. So that kind of offsets some of those good employment numbers.

So you kind of got to mention both of them hand in hand. Yeah, and Jason, part of that unemployment report also. So the revisions for July and August being revised in the way we don't like to see. Yeah, I mean, I think that's always something worth noting is we always get caught in the present when we look at these jobs numbers. And they're almost always, if not always, revised. So, I mean, the revisions downward certainly hurt. And when you see the labor force participation rate so low and you see that wages are very

flat, that's not all that encouraging. It'll be interesting to see how the Fed ends up responding to this down the road with their rate policy. I, you know, stepping back just to the auto sales that you brought up. I mean, that to me was really pretty interesting. And speaking as a consumer were actually participated in that this past September, Chris. I feel like Ford, you're welcome, because you throw a little money your way. And how many times did you participate, Jason? Well, so I think, so my wife's car would actually count for August, I believe. My car

does count for September, because it in fact was September. Well, Ford's sales increased 23%. 23%. I was going to say, I mean, that GM was 12.5%. Ford really, really, really brought the heat, 23.3 percent there. And so it's interesting to me to even look at Ford's stock. In light of that news, couple that with all the headwinds Volkswagen is facing. And even though Volkswagen is very small amount, you know, as far as market share goes here domestically, I think that probably bodes well for the American automakers. But I mean, it's worth noting that Ford, at least for one, was offering, you know, it's an offer. You couldn't refuse

because it was, you know, free money, essentially. But man, in Ford stock now it's yielding four and a half percent. It's actually pretty interesting. Mark Fields has got to be feeling pretty good about things right now. Jeff Fisher, what stands out to you this week? So, Chris, yeah. We had September payrolls were weak, as we all just talked about, but also August factory orders were down, 1.7 percent, more than expected. And we saw weak manufacturing numbers this week. So across the board, you're kind of seeing weakness August through now September. But the thing to keep in mind is, one, the economists who

made the earlier predictions are always wrong. And they will get revised, in this case, revised lower, which was unfortunate. But the final thing to keep in mind is these are, we're backward looking and the market is forward looking. So in a way, it's good that we just had some weakness. We've already gone through it. Hopefully, we'll get stronger going forward. Do you think no rate hike this year? I was just going to say. I was going to say, I think the people who are saying, well, you know, we're going to see a rate height in October. I think they're very quiet. Yeah, we'll see. I think I had said the next time around we'd see one. But I don't

know. This might be pushed. I'd be surprised at this point. I think you want to be looking to place your money on a rate hike in 2016. Yeah. Costco's fourth quarter profits came in solidly above expectations, but Wall Street seemed unimpressed, Jason Moser. Stock flat for the week. What gives?

This is a good quarter. So, yeah, I mean, you're right. And Wall Street maybe doesn't seem impressed based on the reaction. I think that Wall Street has consistently been impressed with Costco. I mean, the stock is performing very well based on its growth process. And that's actually something we've been kicking around over at MDP a good while now here, is that while Costco brings in great numbers and they have a number of stores out there, it's a total of 686 stores worldwide.

480 of those are in the United States. And so the question we have that continues to kind of linger is, are they going to be able to bring their international presence up to parity with their domestic presence? Management believes that they can. It will take some time to do. I'm not necessarily sure that's so realistic. And, you know, the deal with Costco is, I mean, they bring in a lot of money with those membership fees, and then they're able to offer those rock bottom prices.

Gross margin actually improved a little bit, but they saw some headwinds with gasoline. Prices being so much lower than they wore a year ago. You know, Costco is a wonderful business. It's trading in about 25 times forward earnings, which, you know, for a business that's not lobbying up that kind of growth, it starts making you wonder if this isn't a little bit overpriced at this point. Yeah, I was going to say, I think that's fair. evaluation perspective. I think it is the kind of company you can hold as one of, we like

to say, a core holdings. And you probably do pretty well over time, certainly on a risk-adjusted basis. I got lucky a couple weeks ago. There was that one day where the market, it looked like the floor was going to drop out. And I was able to pick up some Costco $15 or $20 cheaper than we're trading today. It was just that one-time thing. But if you watch Costco and you ever get that opportunity, then it's just a wonderful company to own. That's just it. I mean, it's just the quality of the business is so high. I mean, you typically are paying up for that quality. So, the Ron's point. Whenever you see that thing go on sale like that, that's certainly one that should be at the top of your list.

So many quality retailers are trading at multiples of 20 or above right now, whether it's Starbucks, Home Depot, Costco, Dunkin' Donuts. Well, maybe not as quality. They're at Dunk. No, not Duncan. I got to throw that in there because we're talking about it later. We'll get to that later in the show. What that's telling me is the market really believes retailers, consumers, I mean, are going to remain strong or get stronger going forward. Sure.

Alcoa kicks off earning season next week, but making headlines this week with the news that it is splitting into two separate companies. One is going to be focused on upstream activities and will be named Alcoa. What do you mean by upstream? What the heck? We'll get into that. I was going to tip that over to you. I'm more fascinated by the fact that they've got a second business, which they don't have a name for. They've reportedly been working on this move for a couple of years. How do they not have a name for this? Let's do it. We'll name that other company later.

The new company is the one the CEO is going to go to. Yes. That's the one you want to direct your attention towards. Can we at least agree, while we say all the time, you never want to hinge on one single data point. If you see a company breaking in two and the CEO says, I'm going with this one, can't we all agree that that's the one you should be looking at? Especially when it's unnamed.

It's unnamed, but I'm still going there. You can keep Alcoa. So Alcoa itself will now have the legacy smelting, refining the 123 some-year-old business of getting these materials from the earth and making them into something usable. And the new business will be the one that's supplying the components, the bodies, to autos and aerospace and whatnot. So that's more of the value-added business. Now, they're both giant businesses, but they've really kind of overshadowed one another. Lately, aluminum has fallen out of bed, aluminum pricing, and that's been a drag on Alcoa's

entire business, even though the higher-end component business is doing pretty well. So, by breaking this apart, they're hoping to highlight the strengths of the component business and let the aluminum business just wither away. The other business should do well, as well, because they can take out costs and just really focus on the commodity side. Maybe that's the name, the other one. It's kind of like the Grateful Dead, right? I mean, that's how they came up with that.

Let's play the other one. Well, that would be a pretty good title, right? The thing to be careful about, spin-offs do pretty well. The Bloomberg Spinoff Index, which tracks. You made that out. No, I wish I'd, if I did, I'll trademark it. It's a proxy for spin-off performance. It gained more than 500% since 2002 compared to about 100% for the S&P.

So spin-offs can do well because the business is refocused and has new ways to grow value. But right now I would watch Alcoa has a lot of debt and how that debt is going to be divided between these two companies is not yet detailed. Heck, the name isn't even detailed. So the best of the watch to be answered. He answered. Shares of Twitter, very much a roller coaster this week, on reports that co-founder and interim CEO, Jack Dorsey, is going to get the word interim removed from his title. But Jason, Twitter's board of directors has yet to confirm that. What is going on at this company?

Meanwhile, Dorsey, as we've talked about before, seems very much like the person for this job. He's also got another job. He's CEO of the Mobile Startup Square. Just another little multi-billion dollar venture. Which is due to go public later this year. Sure. And I think that's something important to note here is that for the noise that we've heard this week, and I think that really started on Wednesday, it really is nothing more than noise at this point. Because until you actually hear a formal announcement from the company, this is all just based on some tech reporting, which probably is right.

I mean, I think that for the past three months, the going thinking has been that really Jack Dorsey is the guy for this job. I agree with that. I mean, personally, for me, I think it's important that, you know, a founder get back into the driver's seat here and really kind of help steer this business forward. I've certainly seen as a user of Twitter, there has been a lot rolling out here in a short amount of time. Three months seems like a really long time to go without a permanent CEO. It's worth noting, though, that Satya Nadella, it took about six months to get him into Microsoft, too. So this isn't abnormal. So who knows when we actually will see a formal announcement, if we see a formal announcement.

announcement, I think we will. And at that point, I think that we will see this shakeout to where Jack Dorsey will be the CEO. Adam Bain will be the C-O-O-O. You'll have Anthony Noto as the CFO. They'll have a bit more of a conventional leadership structure there, and it sounds like they want to get up there and shake the board up a little bit to actually make this a board that is doing something. It seems like you could probably go through right now with a stethoscope just to test if they actually have a heartbeat, because it just seems like they're sitting on their thumbs. Don't you think, though, that if this does play out the way you've said, then the clock starts

ticking and they've got maybe a year to show some serious results before people start saying, this company either needs to be acquired or just go private. Potentially. I mean, I think that when you look at what Twitter has done thus far, it's not a question really of monetization. I mean, they are growing their revenue. That's good, because they don't appear to be making money. Well, yeah, I mean, I think the profitability obviously will come as the business matures, but I do think you're right. They will have a limited amount of time to really sort of help change the narrative there. And I think they'll be successful doing that because I think

that last month or last quarter's call where Jack actually participated for the first time. It did seem to be, there was a sense of urgency there that hasn't been there before. And I really do think that this will be something they'll focus on here immediately. Coming up, we've got apparel retail and donuts. What more could you possibly need? Stay right here. This is Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Chris Hill here in studio with Jason Moser, Jeff Fisher, and Ron Gross. This week, Ralph Lauren, founder of the eponymous apparel retail company announced he is stepping down as CEO and the stock popped on the news, Ron, as though he's been running this business into the ground. They've been

public almost 20 years. Stock has done very well with him at the helm. True, but it has been struggling lately as a business and as a stock. We're down 37% year-to-date, even with the pop that we saw following the announcement. So, important to understand, he's not going anywhere. still executive chairman, still chief creative officer, controls 81% of the voting power of this business. So he's firmly entrenched in this company. But we've brought on a new mind here to run this, interestingly, from Old Navy and H&M. So we're looking downstream to the more value side, the lower price segment of the retail apparel industry, which is interesting because obviously Ralph Lauren is a premium brand.

And it kind of goes to show you what they thought is needed here and maybe where the direction of Ralph Lauren will go in the future. Yeah. Stefan Larson, who's been the president of Old Navy for the last few years. And as we've talked about before, that's really been the brightest spot of the GAP's business. And Wall Street appears to agree because not only did Ralph Lauren stock pop on the news that Larson is going to be the new CEO, the GAPS stock fell through the floor.

There's basically a 20% differential between these two stocks this week just because of Larson. Yeah, a well-respected guy. Obviously, he wasn't on my radar, to be honest, to any certain major extent. But he's got to feel good. He's got a challenge in front of him, which I hope he thinks is exciting. I'm sure he does. I hope Ralph Lauren doesn't go completely the opposite way and turn into a lower discount brand that you see all over the place. I hope they maintain some of their cachet. Why? How did that work out for coach? That story is still being written, my friend.

Shares of Duncan Brands down 10% on Thursday after lowering guidance for the rest of 2015. The company also plans to close 100 Dunkin' Donuts locations in the next year. I'm doing my part, Jeff. You are, and you brought munchkins in this morning? Yeah, I'm trying to help this business. I mean, is this simply a function of them expanding too quickly when you see this number of locations shutting down? I don't think it really is because these are all locations that are being closed by a franchisee by Speedway stores, Speedway gas station and convenience stores. And they represent 0.1% of Duncan's

U.S. sales. So they're really a blip on their radar. And the good part is about closing these little locations is they can then, in those areas, open full-scale locations. So they didn't change their, they still plan to open 410 to 440 net new stores this year. Revenue growth, 6, 8%, more or less. And they did lower their EPS guidance, but only by a penny or two per share. So it's very minor. What maybe took the stock down as much as anything else, where same store sales growth was slow, 1.1% versus 2.9% last quarter. So they saw lower, less traffic, and they're revamping the menu. They said they took some things away, and that didn't work out so well. Bottom line is there's a lot of competition for where we all go to

get our coffee and our breakfast. And that competition is going to remain very strong across the board. It's still pretty striking when you look at any sort of a map of where coffee locations are, just how it is so concentrated in the eastern half, and particularly the northeast part of the United States. And the opportunity in the West, and particularly California, is pretty enormous. It is. I think the sell-off in Duncan shares this week was probably overdone. I can't say the stock is cheap. It trades it 20 times expected earnings for this year.

year. But they are growing, expected to grow up 15 percent or so next year, bottom line. So not bad. Shares of McCormick falling this week after third quarter profits came in lower than expected. McCormick controls about 20 percent of the global package spice market. And, Jason, it is specifically that international part of the business that's really hurting their results. You know, that's amazing to think they control 20 percent of the market. Who controls the other 80? It seems like McCormick's all you see. And that really, I think, is the reason why they're so successful.

It was a decent quarter for the company. As you noted, currency hurt them a little bit. This is really another wonderful business. We're talking about Costco. This is another wonderful business. And it's one you want to buy when it's out of favor. Unfortunately, that's just not this time. But because they make almost half of their money outside of the U.S., they are going to witness

more currency effects than others. And that certainly played out on the company's results. I think the underlying business, though, is still performing very well. There was a big acquisition they made back in 2012 in China called Wuhan Asia-Pacific Condiments. That is paying off. They're getting more share there with a consumer. And they're seeing some sort of the roll-off of all of the avian bird flu concerns we saw

there on the commercial side. So they're seeing some better numbers there as well. Again, I mean, this is one, it's trading in around 23 times full-year estimates, which for a company that's just not putting up that kind of growth, you know, I'm not. This is one you want to be a little bit more opportunistic on, but I understand why the market's paying up for it. It is a very quality business. And I'll never forget, having gone out to that factory, their factory out in Hunt Valley, Maryland. I mean, it was just a life-changing experience for a cook like me.

It must have smelled wonderful. It was very good. We got about a minute left. Let's tap some of that cooking expertise. And I'll start with you, Ron Gross. When you look in the universe of spices and herbs, what's something, don't You don't give me salt and pepper. I'm good on those. Give me something underrated that I can, you know, spice up my menu with. Well, I don't think everyone will agree, but I think fennel is not used nearly enough, especially in Italian cooking. Sausaged, tomato sauces, really can be a nice little surprise. Would ginger count here? Sure. I mean, Asian cooking to me is really delicious. And ginger can change virtually any dish. I mean, I love some good fresh ginger.

What about you, Hefe? I won't say salt. I'll say sea salt. salt. Oh, you're one of those. Still NACL, too, no matter how you slice it. Come on, you can put it in olive oil, dip your bread in it, on avocado, on pasta, on popcorn. Sea salt is killer. You're not getting, I say this from time of time.

You're just not getting this kind of information on Bloomberg. You're just not. Thankfully, yes. Guys, we'll see you a little bit later in the show. Up next, a few tips for smart thinking. Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.

Money. I'm Chris Hill. Malcolm Gladwell calls our guest this week the most influential thinker in his life. Richard Nismet is a professor of psychology at the University of Michigan and the author of several books. His latest is Mindware, Tools for Smart Thinking. He joins me now from Michigan. Richard, thanks for being here. Thank you. There are a lot of tools in your book. We're a show about business and money and investing, So I want to focus more on the economic side of the equation. And that is one of the questions that you pose in your book. Should people think like an economist?

From your way of thinking and from your study, what does it mean to think like an economist and should we be doing it? ...that you might take decisions. So there's one of them. Let's talk about the principle of sunk costs, because that's something we run into as investors from time to time. If I'm buying a $12 ticket to go see a movie and 30 minutes in, the movie's no good, should I walk out? Because I've got to say, I'm a movie fan, and I can count on one hand the number of times I've walked out of a movie.

Study how economists, I mean, they do walk out of movies. They're a hundred bucks for it. Very freeing, I think, is the rest of my life begins to pay twice. One of the things that comes up in your book time and time again is the many, you know, different ways. Every one of us is affected by unconscious cues. It can be the color of the paint on the wall in a room. It can be something as simple as having coffee on a first date as opposed to having a cold drink and how that can affect your mood. Are you surprised by anything you've come across in your research, or are you experienced enough now where anything is fair game in terms of the way unconscious elements can affect the way we make conscious

decisions. That the mainstom of mental life smaller and smaller, which is scary in some ways, you refer to, you know, the guy's pretty much a swell fellow. If it's iced tea, I don't know. It's absolutely vast. All tosses into the stew to show it have an impact on. More importantly, though, are the things important and often, cold tea, but everybody else I knew was playing kind of empty these days, and I bought a sob automobile,

and everybody, my friends had them, that you would like them to do it on people's door. Last question, and then I'll let you go. For anyone listening who's looking to just get better at how they view the world, how to solve problems, what is one concrete thing we can each do to become smarter in the way we think? Well, I'm going to return to that technology, and that is, that we probably wouldn't want to influence this mind. There's a lovely book of essays collected by Brewster Gieselan by the most creative thinkers in history that came about. Not while the person was sitting at the desk working on the problem

that was not end up thinking about the sun for this project in mind. I'm going to the project. It feels like I'm taking rather than likely to process or problem-solving, process also can do things that the conscious mind left to itself. It can solve problems better. The book is Mindware Tools for Smart Thinking. It is available everywhere. Richard Nisbet. Thanks for being here. Thank you. Coming up, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar. This is Motley Full Money. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the

Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So no, buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear. Welcome back to Motley Full Money. I'm Chris Hill, and joining me me in studio once again, Jason Moser, Jeff Fisher, and Ron Gross. Let's dip into the Fool mailbag before we get to the stocks on our radar. Radio at Fool.com is our email address from David Lee in Australia. Longtime listener, first-time writer, I'd like to hear your thoughts on horsehead holdings. Do you think it is a turnaround play or a value trap in light of its recent price collapse down about 65%? Hey, hey, hey.

In the last month, Ron, what do you think? How much time you got? I'll be quick. We've got three things going on. Brand new expensive facility taking longer to ramp up than expected. Macroeconomic headwinds, largely caused by China, causing zinc prices to fall, and Horset's cash is dwindling as a result of both factors. So that's the real risk here, liquidity risks. They could run out of cash before this business turns. I think they will be okay, but any investor in the stock needs to understand that there is a true risk of permanent loss of capital, as our value investors like to say. But it also has a

has a multi-bagger potential. Question from Jason Lyon, who writes, I was hoping you could offer some insight about Arcos Dorados. To my untrained eye, the price seems to be hovering around imminent failure territory. Are all the concerns about this company strictly currency-related, or are there flaws in the company which currency problems are exacerbating to the point where everyone is fleeing the stock? I've heard you quote the mantra before that you should be greedy when others are fearful.

In light of that, the current price has never looked better for acquiring a stake in in McDonald's largest franchisee, but to that end, how do I know when being greedy is foolish with a capital F or foolish with a small F? It's a great question. Yeah. Specific to Arcos, it largely is a macroeconomic problem. Although, as we've seen here in the States, McDonald's has been struggling. But the weak economies of Brazil and Venezuela are really struggling, soft consumer spending. The currency translation is an absolute mess. Companies cutting costs. They're monetizing some of their real estate assets. The balance sheet is not great. So you could end up having a value trap here if things continue to

deteriorate. Jason, I mean, beyond Arco Storados, how do you make the difference between this is an opportunity to jump in at a cheaper price versus I think this company's got problems? Primarily, you know, I want to make sure I can either identify a short-term catalyst or a long-term trend in play here. And it may not necessarily be blatantly obvious. I mean, you may have to to dig deeper to sort of figure that out. But if you can't find a plausible short-term catalyst or a reasonable long-term trend in play, chances are you could be looking at a value trap. Yeah, I like to usually start to see the storm clouds start to break, see some light at the

end of the tunnel, and then more safely start to buy in. And keep an eye on the balance sheet, because they need those resources to give the company time to turn around. All right. Let's get to the stock center. We'll bring in our man Steve Roydow from the other side of the glass to hit you with a question. Ron Gross, what are you looking at this week? I'm going to go back to Crocs. CROX. Stock got whacked this week when it lowered its third quarter revenue guidance by just a measly $10 million. Part of that was due to currency. Part of that was doing it to withholding some shipments from China to their Chinese distributors.

Really, the stock should not have sold off as much as it did. I think the company is doing a really nice job. Their midterm goals that they've laid out seem very achievable. Stocks at 11, I think, worth 17 without too much trouble there. Steve Brodow, question about Crocs? Have they had any success with actually fashionable shoes? They all just look dopey to me. They're very comfortable, but they do look dopey. No, I think they've made some good traction into things that look more like a typical

boat shoe versus that traditional clog and some other kind of designs as well. I think they've done a good job. Jason Moser, what are you looking at? Sure, looking at interactive brokers, ticker is I-B-K-R. I've been talking with Brendan Matthews over on the Stock Advisor team about potentially bringing over to the MDP watch list, but Interactive Brokers is an electronic broker, very much like your Scott Trades and TD Ameritrades of the world, except Interactive Brokers is a bit, it's a bit less fuss and really all just about this platform and volume. They're trying to really

attract the traders that are trading in large volume day in and day out. Their claim to fame as being the low-cost provider, and so, you know, for me, they offer more products. than anyone else, from stocks and bonds to currency, just the widest breadth of offerings and liquidity that really makes them attractive for bigger clients. And I think, you know, the founder of the business, Thomas Petterfee, he's going to be stepping down as the CEO here soon. He does have a succession plan in place with the – he'll stay on a chairman, but the current president, Milan Gaelic, who's an associate of Petriff.

He's been with the business for 20 years. I'll be taking over. So I feel like there's a good succession plan in place. This is a well-run business that's performed very well in our Foolish universe to date. Steve, question about interactive brokers? Do you think people worry about their money being safe at a place like interactive brokers? I mean, I think Schwab, Safety Rock, Merrill Lynch, Safety Rock, Interactive Brokers? I don't know. Why doesn't Interactive Brokers in you, Steve?

I mean, it's just interactive, it's brokers. I don't know. I mean, it's, you know, I'm sure they're insured. It's just as safe. Jeff Fisher, we've got about a minute left. The power of old Wall Street. Gilead Sciences, stock we own in Motley, Motley Full Pro, tickers G. G-I-L-D. They are really dominating the $20 billion hepatitis C market. There's a lot more room to grow there. They just had positive results on their next generation hepatitis C drug.

They also have the leading HIV franchise, helping people with HIV. The stock trades at 8.3 times expected earnings after Hillary Clinton and others attacked it on Twitter, and biotech went down as a whole this week sharply. Steve, question about Gilead Sciences? What's the next big thing for them? That's the perfect question. That's the perfect question. Right now it's hepatitis C for at least two, three, four, five years, in my opinion.

And Wall Street thinks it's going to fizz out sooner than that. So that's where I think we have an edge. Steve, you got one you like? Gilead sounds pretty interesting. All right. All right. Ryan Gross, Jeff Fisher, Jason Moser. Guys, thanks for being here.

Thanks, Chris. That's going to do it for this edition of Motley Full Money. Our engineer is Steve Broardo. Our producer is Dr. Mac Greer. I'm Chris Hill. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next week.