Motley Fool Money - Stationary Bikes are Difficult to Turn

Episode Date: August 26, 2024

Another set of tariffs might stall BYD’s international expansion in EVs, and it still isn’t clear if Peloton is actually going anywhere. (00:21) Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Canada’s tariffs on electric vehicles from China, and what it says about global production and adoption of EVs. - Tesla’s diversified approach to manufacturing coming in handy as Canada, the U.S., Europe and China all craft trade policies. - Peloton’s return to growth… kind of. And why we’re not buying the turnaround yet. (15:15) Mary Long talks with David Foulkes, CEO of Brunswick Corporation, on the company’s subscription boating service and the latest in marine technology. Companies discussed: BYDDY, TSLA, PTON, BC Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Asit Sharma, Mary Long, David Foulkes Producer: Ricky Mulvey, Mary Long Engineers: Dan Boyd, Austin Morgan Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We're checking in on the market for four wheels and no wheels. Motleyful money starts now. I'm Dylan Lewis, and I'm joined over the airwaves by Motleyful analyst Asit Sharma. Asset, thanks for joining me. Dylan, how are you doing? Happy Monday. Happy Monday. We are checking in on transportation on this Monday,

looking at the electric vehicle market and also the stationary vehicle market. We have some updates on Peloton and also a look at the latest round of tariffs to hit the EV market. Why don't we start out there, Asset? This week, Canada announcing it will be imposing a 100% tariff on EVs made in China. This follows a very similar approach to what the U.S. and the European Commission have done. I want to dig into the Tesla pieces of this and talk about some of the other players in the EV industry. But can you lay out some of the history here first?

Sure, Dylan. So China today finds itself in a bit of a difficult economic position. The country has grown largely through emperizing production in various industries in its history, and it's relied on a massive real estate market to fund production. Now, real estate is becoming a little bit less of a driver in China's economy. They're trying to become more of a consumption-based economy, and they're training their sites on future industries to sort of make up for this shift in how their economy functions. One of the areas that the Chinese government really wants to emphasize is the production

of electric vehicles. And you've obviously heard us talk about their emphasis on developing different technologies in the electronic sector and tech sector in general. So what this is having the effect of in the United States, in Europe, and Canada is sort of scaring the governments, because we've seen in the past when China has come in and subsidized an industry. I'll take the solar industry as a great example. That's tended to wipe out competition because the government has so heavily favored,

both on the tax credit side and the credits for production, that it's killed competition before competition could even arise. Producing electric vehicles is extremely complex. The entire supply chain is so much different than conventional vehicles. And I think governments around the world, especially in Europe and the U.S., North America, feel that if they don't react now with these tariffs, that they'll get undercut in the near term. So 100% tariff, let's just refresh here.

That means that it's going to be twice as expensive to buy a car from China in the US, an electric vehicle. It's 100% tax imposed on the consumer. And that's supposed to disincentivize people from buying those vehicles while the US industry, the European industry. And here we see today the Canadian industry catches up. A big part of the reason why this story has really picked up so much steam in the last year, two years, is because kind of out of nowhere, China's BYD, one of their EV manufacturers,

has absolutely skyrocketed onto the scene with production and sales. They've been jockeying with Tesla for the title of Top EV seller. And you mentioned the 100% markup there. They are operating, for the large part, in the teens when it comes to their pricing in US dollars. Even with it 100% markup, that becomes still very competitive with what we see from some of the higher priced EVs here in the United States. Yes, and it's a race to catch up, Dylan, for major U.S. manufacturers. There are some really nice vehicles coming out.

We've seen Ford coming out with its electric version of the F-150. That's an expensive vehicle. Tesla vehicles generally very expensive. Now, Elon Musk had promised for years that Tesla would introduce a lower cost line of electric vehicles. That really hasn't materialized yet, although this last conference call for the last earnings, he said, yes, that is now on the horizon. But if you have cars that sell in the mid-to-high teens, double that, as you mentioned, that's

still cheaper than some EVs on the market. So what is the US trying to do? The US is putting this barrier up between the consumer and these EVs coming in. But at the same time, it's incentivizing the development of the battery supply chain here in the United States. The Inflation Reduction Act paved the way for, I think, about 17 new manufacturing plants in the US for electric vehicles. There was a report earlier this year that the US is probably on track to supply 100% of its

EV battery needs by 2030. So, this being one of the most expensive parts of an EV2 produce, I think it's going to help the U.S. industry play catch up a little bit. But let's talk about BYD for just a second here, Dylan. Those cars aren't all about low cost. One of the interesting aspects of BYD's vehicles is from the start, they had an idea to make them just as attractive on the inside with lots of nifty features as Tesla's automobile. So, you don't feel that you're sitting inside some kind of cheap automobile when you're

inside a BID vehicle, even though it costs tens of thousands of dollars less. And I think this is one competitive advantage that vehicle manufacturers around the world are just going to have to grapple with. Just as Tesla really laid down a gauntlet for so many other manufacturers, the bar is getting so high in this industry. The industry is only becoming more competitive as we move along. I'm glad you gave some of the color there on BYD and their cars, because most U.S. consumers have never seen one.

They are not on the roads here in the United States. And so it's kind of a story that has taken place out of sight, I think, of most of us here in the U.S. I do want to talk a little bit about the Tesla side of this, because Tesla shares down around 3% today on this news on a day that the market is largely flat. That could be for almost anything. But they are, I think, in a complicated position when it comes to you. to this story, because they have global distribution of their cars.

They also have global production of their cars. They have manufacturing in several different countries, the United States, Germany, and China. What's the impact of these tariffs and the current EV environment for Tesla? I think it's generally positive, Dylan. The reason I say that is because Tesla, from the beginning, has excelled at one thing above almost any other. that is the ability to raise lots of capital. We can fault Elon Musk for a lot of missing of deadlines and throwing out grandiose plans and revising them. But I think what's underappreciated

about Tesla under Musk's leadership is that they have consistently poured billions of dollars of their own free cash flow, their stock as the stock rose, converting that into dollars, and building manufacturing facilities around the world, whether for the battery production or the vehicle production. So, now you've got this very spread-out manufacturing base quite a lot in the U.S., but the U.S. is a huge country. Now, Tesla's manufacturing outside of Berlin. Of course, in China, as you mentioned, they're building production in Mexico, which is great for that sort of supply chain, which runs from Mexico all the way up through Canada. So while this is going to hurt in terms of China production that could go to Europe, it really is not bad at all that they

established a foothold there. The Chinese government really understands like Tesla's objectives, and they play well together. So I think another thing that maybe Musk doesn't get enough credit for is the ability to navigate the complicated geopolitics of production. So they can participate in some credits that are available to manufacturers in China. What it stops them from doing, though, is really gaining share in Europe from China production. Now, in trade, they've got the local production, they can lean into about half of Tesla's production in China is sold within China. They also have Australia.

They have Asia, which are markets that at this point in time, haven't erected these big barriers in forms of tariff. So really, what they're losing out on is sort of the production that can go to Europe. But look, they've got that expanding base in Europe, so maybe they can make up for it there. So there are a lot of puts and takes here, but generally, I'd rather be in their position to to have these choices around the world, then to be stuck with, let's say, a ton of manufacturing capacity in China, and that being, let's say, I don't know, three quarters of production, that would really hurt.

All right. Over to a different market, and a company that we haven't really checked in on too much, up big, that's Peloton. Shares up 40% since the company reported earnings last week, and we kind of missed them in the wider earning slate. There were a lot of companies to cover last week. I looked at the actual results here, Osset, and the company eked out topline growth. Barely. First time they've done it since Q2 of 2022. I guess that's a reason to be excited, but that doesn't seem to me like 40% up excitement. Yeah, Dylan, you and I were trying to piece together. This is partly the result of a short

squeeze, so people who add short positions trying to buy shares to cover their positions with a little bit of good news. I think there's some of that going on. And I think also there's now a sense that the company's free cash flow picture is improving. The worst may be over. They just refinanced quite a bit of debt. So, the maturities have gone out to 2029. That gives them a little breathing space. Gross margin has improved. They closed their manufacturing plant a few quarters ago, pre-core. So now that really, like, heavy burden on the operating statement has been lessened a bit. When you look at all this together, it seems like, okay, they're not going to go out of business tomorrow. But I ask, is this still something that investors should

jump into? This is a company that in every relevant metric is still trailing. I was just looking, they lost a little bit of their membership. This past quarter, they've been sort of bleeding out some members. So 6.4 million members total versus 6.6 in just the previous sequential quarter, Dylan. Their average net monthly paid connected fitness subscription churn is still around 2%. Their paid subscribers are still declining. So while you've got an improving economic picture, what you've got here is still a company that's not grabbing its market, it's not growing. Last bit of this, which gives me pause, is they still are working with two interim co-CEOs. They're on that CEO's search. And I have been burned in the past by buying

into turnaround stories before the new CEO comes on board and lays out his or her strategy. Sometimes it's the best. It's the stuff. Other times, I'm like, why did I increase my position size more than normal, because I got attracted to this turnaround story. That's not going to fly. I can understand the attraction, though, I said. I mean, it's so easy to look at a business, particularly one that has a subscription revenue approach that has a base of users. In their case, it's people with the hardware in their houses, but there is something there. They're physically installed in the home. There is something very captivating about that. It reminds me a bit of that first-round draft pick that winds

of not quite working out with their first team, but continues to find opportunities around the league because the promise was there, the potential was there. Somebody saw something in them, and there's always that temptation for me when I look at a business like this. But I feel like until we start seeing the actual user numbers bottom out and they are able to maintain a base and then build on top of that base, we have to look at this business with skepticism. I think so, Dylan. You know, there's also the draft pick who's, I don't know, something like 7, 8th, 9th in a year, who turns out to be like the pick that everyone else years later is like,

why did we look over this pick? They were so good. It's just when you get in these turnaround situations, yeah, in some case, you almost want to buy a few shares. Like, okay, what if this does really work out? And they've got some interesting things going on under the hood. I mean, there's a secondary market for Peloton bikes. So once the company sells a bike, Dylan, you hop on that bike, you're all excited, and

then you fizzle out after a couple of months. So you put it on, I don't know, Craigslist or a third-party seller. I pick up the bike. I get it in my closet, and I start riding it every day. Well, guess what? They get an incremental subscription in many cases from me. I subscribe to the app. They don't get any part of that sale from you to me, but they picked up with no marketing costs at all, a new subscription. And they, they point that out. They pointed it out in recent calls. So there are some fun things that are going on, but at the end of the day, these are tricky businesses to run where you've got the equipment part and the subscription part. And I asked the same question. I asked when the last CEO came through,

what are you going to be when you grow up? This is what the new CEO who comes in is going to have to decide, what is this company going to be? They almost always have to be stuck to the equipment model because that's the brand to sell the subscriptions. How do you do that profitably? I still haven't figured out as an armchair quarterback how that's going to work, but maybe the incoming CEO will. So, Asset, it sounds like you're buying my hypothetical secondhand bike on Craigslist, but you are not buying the Peloton turnaround story quite yet. Yeah, totally. I got to work off a little bit of this middle-aged weight, and I got some cash on the sidelines for maybe some more interesting ideas for myself right now. So I'm able, after all these years, to separate the two, Dylan.

Awesome, Charma. Thanks for joining me today. Thanks for having me. This was so much fun. The old adage goes, it isn't what you say. It's how you say it. Because to truly make an impact, you need to set an example and take the lead. You have to adapt to whatever comes your way. When you're that driven, you drive an equally determined vehicle, the Range Rover Sport. The Range Rover Sport blends power, poise, and performance. Its design is distinctly British and free from unnecessary details, allowing its raw agility to shine through. It combines a dynamic sporting personality with elegance to deliver a truly instinctive drive. Inside, you'll find true modern luxury with the latest innovations in comfort.

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service, the limits of marine electrification and self-docking boats. I'll make boats, boat parts, and propulsion systems. You also, and I want to hit on this first, because this is really how I got interested in you guys. You also own a subscription service. So tell us a bit about the Freedom Boat Club and how that came to be. Yeah, Freedom Boat Club is a club a little bit like a golf club. It's a shared access participation model, if you like, which didn't exist to the extent that it does now in the marine industry. We actually acquired the business in 2019. It had been developed over a number of years had about 170 locations at the time, mostly in the US. And over the last five years,

we've developed it to about 410 locations worldwide. Now about 45 in Europe. We just opened the first 10 clubs in Australia. But the bulk are in North America. And it operates like a golf club. Essentially, you have a joining fee, and then you pay monthly dues. And you join in a home location, which could be your city like Chicago or New York, you get access to a fleet of boats that you book on an app, but then you also have reciprocal access to any of the other locations worldwide. So if you live in New York and you vacation in Florida or maybe even vacation in the Mediterranean,

you can use the clubs in those local locations. And it's proved extremely popular. We have more than 100,000 members now, and it's very convenient. the boat is ready, clean, and ready to go when you arrive. And when you finish, you just drop it off again. You don't need to put gas in it or clean it or anything like that. So for people who are a bit more time constrained, particularly people in metropolitan areas,

it's proven to be a really exciting and convenient model for them to get into boating with. The recurring revenue that comes from Freedom Boat Club is only a piece of the revenue of the whole company. but when we look at company sales kind of across the every segment over the past few years, they've declined between 2022 and 2023. A couple weeks ago, you all reported earnings, and at that time, you lowered full-year guidance to $5.2 billion. Both sales around the U.S. are also kind of in a tough spot. So it's not just you guys. They peaked in 2021, kind of around the pandemic, but have fallen to below 2018 levels since then.

It makes sense that this is a cyclical industry, right? that sales would follow interest rates and more macro, the macro environment. But still, how do you think about down cycles and how do you navigate the cyclical nature of a discretionary industry like this one? Yeah, it certainly has a cyclical component to it, but we've very purposefully changed our portfolio of businesses. So new boats, sales directly only accounts for something like 20 to 25 percent of our revenues. The rest comes from propulsion.

our system sales businesses, Freedom Boat Club, but notably our parts and accessories businesses, and essentially that is aftermarket businesses mainly generated by the use of our propulsion systems. So things like oils, fueled, lubricants, replacement parts, those kind of things. We've grown that aftermarket portion of our business by about three times in the last 10 years. And what that means is that even though the new boat market can be cyclical, boating participation doesn't change that much. So if you own a boat, you tend to use it. And in the U.S., there are about 10 million registered recreational boats,

and that number has stayed pretty constant for about the last 15 years. So the more of our businesses that are exposed to people wanting to participate in boating, either using their own boat or using one of our freedom boats versus buying a new boat, which is, as you mentioned, is more cyclical, the more resilient our business is to economic cycles. And this year in our second quarter, as you said, we did take down guidance for the year, but we also noted that about 50%, actually slightly more than 50% of our earnings, is coming from those recurring revenue or annuity type businesses, like parts and accessories, aftermarket, Freedom Boat Club, those kind of portions of our business.

So, yeah, we're much more resilient through economic cycles than most other businesses in the leisure and recreation sector. Listeners might not think of a company in the boating sector as being, I'll say, a technological leader, but there's a lot of really cool tech projects that you guys are working on. You're at the Consumer Electronics Show at the start of the year, showcasing some of your newer technologies. Just one example of this is a Boston whaler model with autonomous features. I think about autonomous driving boats don't often come to mind, but what does self-driving boating look like today? We have a strategy called ACEs, which stands for autonomous, connected, electrified, and shared.

I already talked about the shared portion, which is kind of Freedom Boat Club, but we're active in autonomy and driver assistance are commonly called ADAS in the automotive world in making ensure our products are connected and in electrifying a portion of our fleet as well. In terms of autonomous features, a lot of our new boats already come with stationkeeping capability. In other words, they will hold a position if there's waves and wind and current, for example. And they also come with autopilot type features, and many are controlled with a joystick. So controlling a boat and having some assistance features is already very common. One of the difference is between autonomy in recreational marine and autonomy in automotive or light

duty passenger vehicles is in light duty passenger vehicles, often the idea is to detach the driver from the driving experience. You just want to get from A to B in your vehicle and you like to do it as a driver with the least intervention possible if you like. But in a recreational boat, part of the experience is operating the boat. So we don't necessarily want to just detach the operator from the driving experience. What we do want to do is help them in some of the more stressful boating situations. And docking is often one of those.

I don't know if you've ever experienced docking a large boat, but boats have a lot of momentum and there are waves and wind, and they're often people watching. And so it's one of those experiences. When you get used to it, it's fine. but if you're in the earlier stages of your boating journey, it can be a more stressful experience. So we have demonstrated the ability to autonomously dock boats in a number of situations, a number of different boat types and dock types. And we plan to introduce that as we complete

development over the next year or so. I'm glad you made this parallel between and distinction between the self-driving technology in cars and self-driving technology in boats, one of the things that, you know, when it comes to cars, we've been promised these self-driving cars for what feels like so many years, and that process keeps getting delayed. So I'm sure that the process for developing this autonomous docking system was also one with many twist and turns. What did you at Brunswick learn throughout that process? We've learned a lot and we continue to learn. As you say, it's frequently what is referred to as the edge cases that kind of catch you out, if you like, those anomalous situations, unusual

situations that you don't necessarily fully anticipate. And you're right, the journey towards autonomy on road vehicles has been very long, and it's still far from complete, although a lot of progress has been made. But where they have made progress, really, is by limiting the number of situations in which you can activate or effectively use autonomy. So, for example, highway driving, those kind of things. And that is what we need to do and what we're doing as well, is making sure that we only activate and operate autonomous features

in a set of situations in which we're very confident in the outcomes. One of the ways that we can do that in boating is by not only using real environments to test the capability of our autonomous systems, but testing them in simulated environments. So you don't necessarily want to put a real boat in every edge case of wind and rain and current and all those things in every variety of docking situations in real life. But you can put a digital version of the boat into a digital environment that has all of those kind of edge cases in it and do a lot of testing to make sure that the system is robust to all of the reasonable environment. environmental conditions that you can anticipate and also that you don't activate the system if it's outside of those boundaries. I'm going to make another parallel between driving and boating. Let's talk about electric power. What's the state of marine electrification?

Clearly, a lot of progress has been made with light duty road vehicles, with passenger vehicles and electrification. And I think where the threshold was kind of crossed was where the utility of the electric vehicle was in some way roughly equivalent to the classical internal combustion engine vehicle in terms of performance and range and kind of overall features. Boats are a little bit more like aircraft than they are like road vehicles. They're very weight sensitive. They require a lot of power to operate them, and they don't have brakes, for example, to regenerate energy. So at the moment, electrification of recreational boats is limited to smaller boats. smaller power requirements, relatively smaller bodies of water, typically.

And we've introduced a range of five now electric outboard models, which can be used in a variety of boat applications, small fiberglass, small aluminum, or inflatable boats, that give you reasonable range and performance that you might need for a certain set of applications. The market for that at the moment is mainly in Europe, and it's mainly on restricted waterways. There are a number of city centers in Europe and also smaller lakes that don't allow combustion engine craft on them anymore. And so people need to use electric power. That's a real market, and we're present in that market with really innovative, I think, exciting new product. but when you get to more of the core of the boat market and certainly larger boats,

the technology doesn't exist currently in terms of particularly the energy storage, the batteries that are at the right kind of power to weight ratio to allow you to have performance and range anything like equivalent to a conventionally powered vehicle. So, we're certainly continuing to work to increase the power of the electric product and reduce cost. But currently, not with the current kind of technology set. We don't see electrification advancing into the core and upper-end platform. As always, people on the program may own stocks mentioned in the Motley Fool may have four more

recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell anything based solely on what you hear. I'm Dylan Lewis. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow. Thank you.