Motley Fool Money - Surprising Earnings and Portfolio Protection

Episode Date: November 4, 2022

If the jobs report and Federal Reserve didn't surprise investors, some earnings reports sure did. (0:30) Andy Cross and Jason Moser discuss: - How two of the "War On Cash" stocks are doing - Etsy's cautious optimism heading into the holidays - North American same-store sales fueling the rise of Starbucks - The latest from Qualcomm, Atlassian, and Uber (19:15) Rachel Warren talks with Jon Maier, chief investment officer at Global X, about how to protect your portfolio during an economic downturn and trends he's watching over the next 3, 5, and 10 years. (30:30: Andy and Jason return to talk about - Hershey's latest quarter - Investing strategy for a college student - Two stocks on their radar: Ulta Beauty and The Trade Desk Stocks mentioned: SQ, PYPL, ETSY, SBUX, QCOM, TEAM, UBER, HSY, VOO, ULTA, TTD Host: Chris Hill Guests: Jason Moser, Andy Cross, Rachel Warren, Jon Maier Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineers: Rick Engdahl, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We've got the Fed chief, a caffeine boost from Starbucks, and the latest in the war on cash. Motley Fool Money starts now. We need money. That's why they call it money. The best thing. The Global headquarters. This is Motley Fool Money Radio show. I'm Chris Hill, joining me on the show.

Motley Fool senior analyst, Jason Moser, and Andy Cross. Good to see you both. Hey, Chris. We got the latest headlines from Wall Street. John Mayer from Global X ETFs is our guest. And as always, we got a couple of stocks on our radar. But we begin with the big macro. The U.S. economy added 261,000 jobs in October.

The report comes just two days after the Federal Reserve announced, as expected, another interest rate hike of three quarters of a percent. Andy, it kind of went like we all thought it was going to go, right? I mean, we were expecting this interest rate hike, and the jobs report was kind of a Goldilocks report. Well, it's interesting, Chris. the jobs were it was actually much higher than expectations. Remember, we had the Hurricane Ian coming through in late September. And so I think into October, I think there's a lot of concern maybe what that

would do to the jobs numbers. But I think you mentioned, 261,000 jobs down from 315,000 in September and 292,000 in August. So the Fed wants to see these numbers softening. I think we've talked about that enough. They want to see a slowdown in the economy. Unemployment rate ticked up a little bit to 3.7 saw growth in healthcare and manufacturing drive a lot of the growth. Wage increases, interesting, Chris, increased 4.7% year-over-year. That was trending down, but still fairly elevated compared to what the Fed wants to see. And J-PAL talked about this with wages and prices still running very hot. We saw the jobs openings this week at $10.7 million in September versus $10.3 million in August.

so down from the March peak. So those trends are starting to see and move in the direction that the Fed wants to. But still, as you mentioned, the Fed increased rates, the Fed funds rate by 0.75% to a target of 3.75 to 4%. That's back to the levels of 2009. He said it's premature to be thinking about pausing. Jay Powell said, we think we have ways to go. And that sent the markets It's a little bit spirally on that day. Interesting, the two-year rate on the note is now at 4.755% up from just like 0.4% a year ago. So you're seeing the rates really increase, and that's going to affect all kinds of borrowing costs going ahead, and that might start to get the Fed where they want to go. Yeah, Andy, kind of like we see during earnings season that a stock will react

not on the earnings results themselves, but on the guidance the company gives. We're kind of seeing that with the Federal Reserve. It's not about the announcement. It's about the press conference that Jay Powell gives afterwards. Oh, my gosh. Remember, I mean, just trying to digest what Jay says and what Chairman Powell says and the questions that are asked and just reporters and analysts trying, and macroanalysts trying to gauge what the Fed will do. That's why it's a very difficult job. Obviously, we're going to see a terminal rate go closer to the that high for 5%, where it will kind of peak out. But it's going to be a little bit longer than higher and longer than I think a lot of analysts and investors maybe we're expecting,

which really juice the market in October. Let's get to some earnings, and our opening category is the war on cash. Shares of Block up more than 15% on Friday. The company formerly known as Square posted third quarter results that were better than Wall Street was expecting. You tell me, Jason, was Block that good? expectations that low? Maybe a little bit of both. I mean, I think big picture, you have to admire how this business has evolved over time. I mean, it was just this little device that could take your card at food trucks not all that long ago. And they've really built it out into a nicely diversified financial services business that eases a lot of friction in the movement of

money. The results, I think, were really respectable. The total net revenue is $4.52 billion. That was up 17% from a year ago. Now, if you exclude Bitcoin, it was $2.75 billion, looks even better, up 36%. Gross payment volume of $54.4 billion. That was up 20% from a year ago. So they continue to push money through that network. And that all resulted in gross profit of $1.57 billion. It was up 38% from a year ago. The business breaks out essentially into Cash App and the Square ecosystem. And the Cash App continues to grow, generate a gross profit of $774 million. That was up 51% from a year ago. And then the Square ecosystem also up 29% from a year ago as well. We always kind of go back to Cash App, I think, because it's such a conduit for so many

different things that really ultimately go through their network. And they recorded more than 49 million transacting actives in September alone. That was up 20% from a year ago. And they also continue to grow the share of cash app cards in this network as well. They're at 35% penetration. Now, that's up from 25% back in September of 2020. I think probably the bigger question right now is just the afterpay acquisition. I mean, clearly it's been a tough year for four block, but it's been a tough year, I think, for virtually every company out there, right? The investments, they continue to make payoff, but I think the question right now is in regard to the afterpay acquisition. It feels like they paid entirely too much for it.

I mean, they've got a ton of goodwill on the balance sheet now because of it. But ultimately, time will tell. They did see some benefit from the BNPL space in the quarter. I suspect that will become more pronounced as time goes on. Sticking with the war on cash, it was a different story for PayPal. Third quarter profits in revenue were higher than expected, but the company lowered guidance sending shares of PayPal to within just a couple of bucks of a five-year low, Andy. Well, yeah, it was actually a pretty good quarter, I think, Chris. When you look at the revenue was up almost 11% to 6.85 billion, payment volume, up 9%. 14% if you back out the strong dollar in the effects of currency to 337 billion. Cross border continues to be trending down. And that hurt them a little bit down 1%. Those volumes down 1% on a neutral currency basis. Jason mentioned by now pay later.

that that space continues to be a bright spot for PayPal did very well. Total active accounts to $432 million overall throughout the entire ecosystem with Venmo and PayPal and others, up 4%. They added $2.9 million. Transactions up 15% and transactions per active account at 50 per year, up 13%. That's the highest they've seen in the last couple of years. So overall, the EPS number was better. They managed and did some really nice job on some expense management, the non-transactional side, so the non-transactional expenses were only up 4% versus transactional expenses that were up 18.5%. So it's a little different position than the likes of block.

They bought back $3.2 billion of stock this year so far. That's 78% of their free cash flow. They continue to make all the innovations, getting Venmo tied into Amazon, working with Apple to enhance the offerings with PayPal and Venmo. Those all will kind of start to hit. I think over the next couple of years, the next few months into the new year. So you got a stock at 74, market cap of $85 billion, lots of cash, manageable on the balance sheet, price earnings somewhere in the high teens, like 16, 17, 18 times.

I think PayPal still looks attractive here. Shares of Etsy have been cut in half this year, but up a bit this week after a strong third quarter report. Jason, when you look at Etsy's business right now, What stands out to you? Yeah, a nice, bright spot in a challenging earning season for sure. And it was interesting. They didn't do anything particularly special, but the business just continues to perform.

Management continues to hit the targets that they set. I think that's really important. The performance for the quarter, it was respectable. I mean, consolidated gross merchandise sales, $3 billion that was up. 0.7% currency neutral. Take rate continues to improve, obviously, that puts, that revenue number for them. Consolidated take rate for the quarter was 19.8%. They ultimately recorded a net loss, a big net loss, right? $963.1 million.

But I want to make sure people understand that that was primarily due to a massive impairment charge, right? A $1 billion impairment charge in Goodwill that related to the D-POP and the ELO 7 acquisitions that they made just, I think, about a year ago. And it kind of goes back to what I was talking about with Block, right? You get a lot of. lot of goodwill on the balance sheet. You do tend to see that written off in times like these. You know, I generally, I don't get a lot of value out of the Q&A portion of earnings calls. I just don't feel like the questions are always very long-term focus. They don't seem like they're very insightful. But that question was brought up on the call. You wrote down this big

impairment just one year after the acquisitions. What did you miss? What lessons have you learned? And Josh Silverman, he took full responsibility. They like the businesses they acquired, but they fully admitted that they got the timing and the valuation wrong. And the world has certainly changed in a short period of time. But they continue to invest in personalization, making it smarter and more catered to what each person is looking for. And it's encouraging to see the Star Seller Program really taking off. That focuses on rewarding their sellers with the recognition when they deliver on being responsive, when they ship on time, and when they get great reviews.

And that ultimately, I think, can speak to those fee increases that I think ruffle a few feathers early on when they decided to pass that through. Two categories that have been most pressured by reopening headwinds, the home and living, and then also craft supplies. Those are showing signs of stabilization. So they're entering the holiday season on a note of caution, just guiding for about 3% revenue growth for the quarter. But it's also worth noting that it would also represent growth of 174% from two years.

2019. So take that with a grain of salt. I like that they're going into the holiday season with a little bit of caution because, hey, listen, you know, you're sort of under promise and over-deliver. That's what we like to see. Starbucks ended its fiscal year with a double shot of espresso. Details after the break. So stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. The trouble with the world today, it's plain to cease. It's coffee in a cardboard cup pickle down. Welcome back to Motley Full Money. Chris Hill here with Jason Moser and Andy Cross. Starbucks' fourth quarter report was highlighted by strong profits and higher revenue, sending shares

of Starbucks up nearly 10% on Friday. Andy, same store sales growth in the U.S. was a really nice highlight. My gosh, yes, was it ever, Chris. It was up, North American overall, up 11% with a 10% increase in average ticket and a 1% increase in transaction. That's basically kind of the story here. We're seeing some pricing that they have put forth and people continuing to, and wanting to spend more money, especially on drinks that are flavored. I'll note that pumpkin spice

lattes, which I have not tried recently, but their sales were up 70% year over year. Traffic for the stores is almost back to 2019 levels, and that's really starting to show up in the earnings and the revenues. Revenues were up 11% on a 13-week basis, and that includes a 3% hit to FX. Pricing, as I mentioned, was up 6% in the U.S., but they're not really looking to do too much more on that. Comparable store growth was up 7%. I mentioned the strong North American comp. International was a little bit weaker. And China, of course, was weaker with all of the COVID challenges they had there. Mobile ordering is now contributing about 44% of the sales mix. And delivery was up 35% and accounts for 24% of sales. That was higher than I expected to see.

And that was very attractive. They opened 763 new stores. Now they have more than 35,000. total. Their operating margins were a little bit lower and a little bit down because of the investments that Howard Schultz, when he came back, is making the stores and peoples. There was that sales deleveraging from China, offset by a little bit of the pricing. The rewards membership was up 5%. So overall, the guidance very strong, comp growth of 7 to 9% with the higher, probably at the higher range with China hurting earlier in the year for the fiscal year 23. Revenue up 10 to 12%. Global store count up 7%. Add it all in, you get an EPA earnings per share that could be up somewhere in the 15 to 20% going for fiscal year 23, very attractive for Starbucks.

The struggles continue for chipmakers. Qualcomm's fourth quarter results were overshadowed by lower guidance for the current quarter and a hiring freeze that the company has implemented. Jason, we were talking about this before the show. Qualcomm is not immune among chipmakers. No, it is not. This is a, this is a. a good lens, I think, into the broader challenges. The whole space is facing right now. And results for the quarter, very respectable within guidance that management set a quarter ago, but clearly there are headwinds on the horizon that are leading virtually everyone in the space to pull back on guidance in the near term. The numbers, again, you know, nothing to write

home about, but certainly very respectable. As I said, revenue was up 22 percent from a year ago, earnings per share, up 23 percent from a year ago. The licensing division saw some contraction there, but the segment-wise, it was good performance. Handsets were up 40 percent, automotive, up 58 percent, Internet of Things, up 24 percent, some contraction there in radio frequency, down 20 percent, but all in all, still very encouraging. It's just the forward-looking picture, right? They said that were at least their updating guidance for the calendar year 2022, calling for handset volumes.

Previously, guidance was for mid-single-digit percentage decline. Now they're calling for a low double-digit percentage decline, and they said in the release, I quote, the rapid deterioration in demand and easing of supply constraints across the semiconductor industry have resulted in elevated channel inventory. Due to these elevated levels, our largest customers are now drawing on their inventory. So we can expect that to play out, I think, for the next several quarters. One final point, Apple is always a big part of the conversation with Qualcomm. The relationship with Apple is in a good place right now.

They expect to have the vast majority of 5G modems for 2023. iPhone launch that was up from the previous 20 percent assumption. But going from there, it will be something that continues to phase out of their business as we work towards 2025. Shares of Atlassian fell 30 percent on Friday and hit a three-year low. The Collaboration Software Company's first quarter report came with disappointing guidance. Andy, is Atlassian really 30 percent worse than it was a week ago? Well, I don't think so, Chris, but the commentary from the founder and the CEO in their letter

with saying that we are seeing a decrease in the rate of free instances of software, converting to paid plans. They've seen that this year. It's elevated. That trend became more pronounced in the quarter, and they're seeing the slowing. They're starting to see the slowing and the rate of paid user growth from existing customers as they slow down their hiring. So as we're hearing about so many big tech companies slowing down,

their spending, if not putting forth layoffs, that impacts the amount of licenses and clients that use Atlassian software. And they are really seeing that. And that's starting to show up in the guidance when they're just looking towards the upcoming fiscal year, looking to slow down for Atlassian. But I think the concern for investors is, is this just the start? And will it get worse and worse going forward? Overall, it was a pretty nice quarter with revenues up 31% in line, subscription revenues up 50%. Cloud and data center revenues up close to almost north of 50%. Customer growth was a little bit on the soft side. So we're seeing that impact in the macro economy starting to impact the likes of Alassian. Uber's third quarter revenue rose more than 70%

compared to a year ago. The company still is not profitable, but strong guidance for the current quarter. Help push shares of Uber higher this week, Jason. Yeah, good week for the ride share company. Criticisms on the financials today are fair. I do get it, but I think as time goes on, we'll see that change. I do view this as a company that more and more, the world would just feel the impact if it went away. It just has this ability to piece together multiple complementary business lines, which ultimately make the whole business stronger. But it all really boils down to demand, and the numbers really look good. Right, gross bookings up 32% constant currency basis. Mobility gross bookings of $13.7 billion were up 45% delivery gross bookings.

up 13%. Trips during the quarter grew 19% from a year ago to 1.95 billion. Approximately 21 million trips per day on average. I mean, this is just a beast of a company that is really getting good at getting things and people from point A to point B. They reported $90 billion in gross bookings in 2021. Management is still targeting $170 billion at the midpoint for 2024. So if they get there, if they get even close to it, the financials will look meaningfully different than. It's just one where you have to stay patient if you believe in the story. It's interesting to me that Uber doesn't appear to spend a lot of money advertising its core business. The advertising and promotion is really for hiring new workers and for Uber Eats.

Yeah, that's the beauty of becoming a verb, Chris. You just don't have to advertise as much. All right, Andy Cross, Jason Moser, guys. We'll see you later in the show. Up next, we've got a conversation with the chief investment officer of Global X ETS. More investing on the way, so stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Chris Hill. GlobalX ETFs is a fund management company that has more than $45 billion in assets under management. Rachel Warren caught up with John Mayer, the chief investment officer at GlobalX, to talk about how to protect your portfolio during an economic downturn, as well as trends to watch over the next three, five, and ten years.

For investors that are looking to build out their recession playbook, if you will, what are some key elements to consider? Given that we expect a recession and a contraction, while we're, I guess we're in a technical recession because the first two quarters of the year, you saw negative GDP growth. I do expect positive GDP growth in the third quarter. But I do believe for positioning, defensive and quality focused positions remain really relevant in this environment. We all need to eat.

We all need to go to the doctors, buy toothpaste and paper towels. So overweighing those type of sectors makes a lot of sense. We also believe there's diversification benefits and dipping into areas that have been hard hit in the current environment. So at Global X, we have thematic ETFs

that focus on cloud computing, robotics, cybersecurity, and those are all areas that are recurring revenue business models. that have seen top line growth. And we know that cloud computing, we know cybersecurity are areas that companies have to continue spending on. So we do believe that a certain component of growth in this type of environment makes sense. You never know exactly the timing of when to get into a particular area. Unexpected events could happen.

The Fed could take their foot off the pedal. there could be potentially positive news in Europe about the Ukraine-Russian war. So you never can protect these. So you have to, and it's hard to market time. It's always so hard to market time. And, you know, if you think about investor psychology, when the market's going up, everyone feels great and you want to invest. When the market's going down, you just don't want to touch the market,

although that's probably the best time to move into certain areas, of course. So that's why a constant investment process makes a lot of sense. And I do think that these areas are part of our future, whether it be robotics, whether it be cybersecurity or cloud computing, they certainly are part of our future. And you can't pick that exact time when to get into the market. You know, it's interesting. We've kind of, as we're in the thick of earnings season, we've heard talk of there being sort of an impending earnings apocalypse.

And obviously some companies have had stronger reports than others. We're still waiting for some major reports from big names. we all follow, but it definitely hasn't been, I think, the doom and gloom that some had forecast. You know, for investors who are looking at the current market, who are looking at the volatility, seeing some of their favorite stocks trading down, maybe it's an opportunity to look at investing, how can one discern, you know, strong businesses that are continuing to perform, even if share prices remain depressed, from the companies that maybe aren't the best long-term investments that are dealing with more durable headwinds?

Sure. If you look at, as you mentioned, the third quarter earnings for certain S&P sectors are becoming in better than expected. And some companies reported positive revenue surprises pointing to a very resilient consumer. And I think that's important, the resilient consumer, and where is the consumer going to continue to spend? Now, only roughly 20% of the S&P has reported so that we still have a lot of time for this earnings season to really understand what's going on. And 70% of the S&P 500 companies have reported above estimates, but those are based off a reduction in estimates. So those numbers are a little misleading. Communication services and healthcare companies contribute the most to overall earnings growth. I think healthcare companies certainly make a lot of sense in this environment, particularly in the recessionary environment.

We all have to spend on health care. Staples could be somewhat hurt by the strong dollar, as well as, some of the higher input costs from supply chain inflation issues. But we are hearing a lot about companies that are concerned with inflation, which has a negative impact on profits. So those companies that are more reliant on the capital markets, we're going to see profit margins shrink, and those companies, certainly their stock prices likely will go down. Companies are less reliant on the capital markets, I think, are better place to be. And as I mentioned earlier, companies with strong cash flows, high cash balances, high dividends, and able to actually increase their dividends

are companies that I think make a lot of sense to be included in a portfolio, a more resilient type companies where margins will be compressed much less. A couple of years ago, growth stocks, tech-oriented companies, these were investor favorites. And over the past year, for sure, we've seen that a lot of companies in that space have been beaten down significantly, even those with core businesses that remain fairly strong. So I'm kind of curious what your thoughts are on the growth stock phenomenon. Do you think this is just cyclical action in the markets, or is there more for investors to consider here? Growth tends to be a hard hit early on in the cycle relative to the broader equity market. But as investors shift focus from tightening liquidity

towards slowing growth, segments of the economy that can grow faster become really attractive to investors. When the ship happens, it really varies. So in 1980, the growth-oriented NASDAQ bottomed relative to the S&P 561 days into the recession. In 1981, growth bottomed after 295 days. In short, it's really tough to time while focusing on growth alone, because that could be a vulnerability. But I think once you've seen these big drawdowns, that's when investors are looking for that growth in the market. And that's when you will see that shift back into growth-oriented, momentum-oriented stocks. Outside of high inflation, interest rate activity, some of these really kind of big factors that we're seeing influencing the markets at large, what are some other

key factors that you think investors should be watching to track the health of the market moving forward? I think the market should be focused on stability. If the market feels like there's no systemic risk. I think that's a positive. The Fed right now is trying to fight inflation. They've moved up short-term rates aggressively. Some of the impact has not really been felt, but there's lagging indicators, like if you look at what's going on in housing, you're starting to see housing come down in price. Mortgage applications have dropped meaningfully. Obviously, with 7% mortgage rates, you would expect that. And then what are going to be the downstream implications from a slowdown in housing. Many different sectors will be impacted. Many different

consumer-driven sectors will be impacted. But as long as there's stability in the market, that's a positive. And then you look towards what are going to be some of the tailwinds in the market. Now, what we're seeing with respect to tailwinds, and there's not a tremendous amount, but there's the Inflation Reduction Act and other legislation that is going to cause spending in certain areas in the climate area. If you look at electric vehicles, that's an area, we think makes a lot of sense. Penetration is really low in the U.S. It's much higher in other parts of the world. If you look at China, 53% of auto sales are electric vehicles. If you look at some of the Nordic countries that are in the 85% range, you look at all the ancillary areas related to electric

vehicles, like lithium mining. There's a major shortage of lithium. Global, And it takes a long time to mine lithium. So that's one area of the electric vehicle ecosystem that we believe has a lot of legs. So we're looking for some of those tailwinds. And some of the tailwinds includes the spending from the Inflation Reduction Act, which is going to occur over the next 10 years. I love this idea of kind of leaning into some of those tailwinds that are going to drive the market over the next decade. As investors, you know, here at the Motley Fool, we're always looking at companies that would invest in for a minimum of three to five years. if not longer. So just to close out our discussion today, I'd love to hear about kind of what excites you the most as an investor right now. And what are the trends, you know, the themes that you're focusing on as we finish out the year looking ahead into the new year and beyond? So going forward, and as I mentioned earlier, I think we are looking for those tailwinds that could increase adoption in different areas. So electric vehicles certainly is one. And the ecosystem

surrounding electric vehicles is certainly an area that we think makes a lot of sense for inclusion in a portfolio. I also believe that U.S. infrastructure makes a lot of sense. Valuations in this area have really compressed. They've compressed from 22 times earnings to 15 times earnings in 2022. And the companies are still expected to increase topline growth by 16 percent through 2023. And the market resilience has been fairly important. impressive in 2022 outperforming the S&P 500. So U.S. infrastructure, which includes a lot of industrial and material type companies, is an area that we're suggesting also. And also long-term, the infrastructure bill from 2021 only accounted for $1.2 trillion of the estimated $2.6 trillion

invested in infrastructure spending over the next 10 years. So there's a lot of spending going to be going on in that area. And again, Again, we're always looking for tailwinds. Tailwinds is the spending from that bill, as well as the more recent inflation reduction acts, which will impact more climate areas, like electric vehicles, solar and wind. And also, there's a lot of ancillary investing that goes on with that public spending. There's a lot of private spending that is going on that will go on over the next 10 years. So we're looking to ride that wave. If you're a member of any Motley Fool service, you can catch Rachel Warren's full interview

with John Mayer in our video library online at Fool.com. Coming up after the break, Andy Cross and Jason Moser return. They got a couple of stocks on their radar, so stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool money. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy ourselves stocks based solely on what you hear. Welcome back to Motley Full Money, Chris Hill here once again with Jason Moser and Andy Cross. On Friday, Hershey announced that third quarter revenue rose 13%. And the

Candy Maker raised guidance for the full fiscal year. Andy, safe to assume that Hershey had a good Halloween? Oh my gosh, considering what I have in my hand with Hershey bars and Reese's, I just went through my kids, my wife and I went through my kids' Halloween bag. Plenty of Hershey's there. It continues to be a very impressive year for Hershey's. You know, the stock is up 31% over the last year. And now yields, well, gosh, 1.8%. The price earnings ratio is somewhere in the high 20s, which is high for a company, but look at the deliveries they've done with the sales up 15% organic sales up 11.8%. North American confectionery up 10.4%. That includes 7.7% in price and 3% on Mix.

North American Salty Snacks is up 20, more than 21% on an organic basis. You look at the investments they're making both in acquisitions, but just in the business to be able to continue to grow. The guidance for the fiscal year, for the main year of the fiscal year, is 14 to 15% versus 12 to 14% prior guidance on the revenue side and adjusted earnings per share at 820 to 827. That's up 14 to 15% expected versus. is up 12 to 14%. So overall, the demand for their products, as we are looking for more and more

value-based, reasonably priced, enjoyments in our food, Hershey continues to be one that's seen a lot of demand. Jason, would you agree that the number of listeners who were shocked to hear Andy admit he goes through his kid's Halloween candy after the holiday, that number of people is vastly outweighed by the number of parents who are listening and nodded along when Andy said that. Like, oh, yeah. Yeah, I totally do that. No, I think it's, we're all parents. I mean, I think we get it, right? For me, listen, I love her. She's much as the next guy. We gave out Kit Katz and Reese's this Halloween and it went over like gangbusters. I'm really interested to see, though,

if this year, because I believe it was last year that it was Thanksgiving, I think, last year, they had that big old Reese's peanut butter cup pie, right? Yes. I mean, I literally, I tried to get on the list for that thing. It was sold out before I could even log in on the computer. So I'm going to keep an eye out for that this year. And if I can give it a world, but the pushback on that is, it's all about texture, right? Maybe that thing is just too big for it to really work.

I don't know. I'm just, I'm really curious. Of course, I'll give this candy back. Not really. No, you won't. Our email address is Podcasts at Fool.com. Got a question from Justin Erickson, who writes, I'm a college student that contributes to a Roth IRA every year.

I'm curious about some long-term stock and mutual fund strategies that you'd suggest. Thank you for that, Justin. Thank you for listening. Andy, got to say, always love it when we get an email from a college student who is this into investing. Fantastic. Congratulations. Keep investing. Set a plan.

month, if you can. Don't forget, very cheap, reasonable ETFs that match the market can be a great way to invest over the very long term. And you have the biggest advantage going for you, which is time. We all wish we had more of it. And to start soon as soon as you can, which you have is fantastic. Congratulations. Stick to a plan. Set it up. Try to do it monthly or quarterly. And don't get swayed by the market. Jason, any thoughts for Justin? Yeah, I like the way Justin thinks. I mean, This is just phenomenal. So congratulations on taking the initiative. You really are getting started at such a great time. I'll echo a lot of what Andy said there. I think you're young, so you can take some risk. I like the idea of building from a foundation of diversification.

I think owning an S&P index fund, something like the Vanguard, S&P Index Fund, the ticker is V-O-O. That gives you immediate diversification, and then you can really build from that foundation. And from there, you're in grow your wealth mode, man, for like the next 30, 40 years. So take a little risk, diversify. My daughters, for example, they're a little bit younger than you are right now, but they own a lot of the obvious suspects out there. Disney, Nike, Apple, Starbucks, stuff like that. Just keep on adding, keep on building.

And you're going to really, really like where you are decades from now. Let's get to the stocks on our radar. Our man behind the glass, Rick Engdahl is going to hit you with a question. Andy Cross, you're up first. What are you looking at this week? Chris, Alta Beauty has been just a really wonderful business. The largest beauty retailer in the United States with more than 300 stores selling 25,000 products across 600 brands. Market cap of about $22 billion stocks at $415, up 11% for the year versus a minus 20% for the S&P.

Very well run. Continues to very profitable with net income margin north of 12%. Return on equity north of 50%. Compatible brand growth of 14%. percent versus 10 percent in the prior quarter for this last quarter, 8 percent increase in transactions, almost 6 percent increase in price. When I look at the demand for beauty products, as we all continue to, even though we are getting out, as we all continue to use remote living and different ways to communicate, I think beauty is just going to be continuing demand. And this is a business

that I think has done very well and can continue to do very well. And the ticker sample? Rick, question about Alta Beauty? Yeah, so my daughter is of the age where she's exploring cosmetics, and I'm just wondering if they happen to sell a product that helps a teenager put on makeup more quickly because they will own the future if they can. A hundred percent, Rick. My daughter is just starting to dabble too. So if you find one at Alta, when you go there this weekend, let me know. Jason Moser, what are you looking at?

Guys, my daughters are knee-deep, and it doesn't get any better. I hate to tell you. I'm taking a look at the Trade Desk, a ticker is TTD. Remember, the Trade Desk operates a demand-side platform, allows ad buyers to create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital ad campaigns across many different platforms. Given the challenges that we've seen in the advertising market this earning season, with everything from Meta and Google to Snap and Roku, it's just going to be really interesting to me to see if the Trade Desk bucks the trend a little bit. They've got this huge focus right now on connected TV or CTV as this big opportunity and ad-supported video and demand continues to grow. So there's a discussion in the recent Investor Day presentation that their relationship with Disney,

which is moving right along, also noting that HBO and Netflix now moving fast to offer their ad-supported offerings, that ultimately the trade desk, they're seeing the biggest surge in connected TV inventory that they've ever seen. And so I'm just going to be looking for more language in regard to connected TV in the call. I'd be less focused on the near-term macro concerns with this business, more focused on the long-term opportunity that's developing for this company. earnings out November 9th. Rick? Question about the trade desk? Yeah, I actually bought the trade desk about a year ago. Once more, can you just talk me off the ledge here? Well, hey, listen, I own it right there with you, Rick. So, again, I think this is

one where you just don't worry so much about these near-term headwinds because virtually every company is subject to them these days. But this is a company that's really pursuing a massive market opportunity. Hang in there, all hanging there with you. What do you want to add to your watch list, Rick? I think with hope in my heart, I'm going to go with the beauty products here. Andy Cross, Jason Moser, guys. Thanks for being here. Thanks, Chris. Thank you.

That's going to do it for this week's Modley Cool Money Radio Show. The show is Mixed by Rick Angdell. I'm Chris Hill. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next time.