Motley Fool Money - The Surprising Truth about Retirement

Episode Date: August 2, 2019

  The Fed cuts interest rates for the first time since 2008. Procter & Gamble hits an all-time high. Apple gets a boost from services and wearables. Shopify rises. Pinterest pops. And Square stumbles. Analysts Ron Gross and Jason Moser discuss those stocks and weigh in on the latest results from Beyond Meat, Kellogg, Spotify, and Under Armour. Plus, Motley Fool retirement expert Robert Brokamp shares some surprising truths about retirement and explains why 70 is the new 65. Thanks to DataSiteOne from Merrill Corporation for supporting our show. To learn more and sign up for a free demo, go to to www.merrillcorp.com/fool. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money. It's the Motley Full Money Radio show. I'm Chris Hill, joining me in studio this week, senior analyst Jason Moser and Ron Gross. Good to see you, as always, gentlemen. Hey, you do, Chris. We've got the latest earnings from Wall Street. Retirement expert Robert Brokamp is our guest, and as always, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar. But we begin, once again, with the big macro.

This week, we got the jobs report for July. Unemployment rates stayed at 3.7%. The Fed meeting resulted in a rate cut of a quarter percent, and Jason, we had more talk of tariffs and the trade war with China. And I'm curious, through all of this noise, I'm not saying there's not some substance there, but through all of this noise, what do you focus on as an investor? Because I'm guessing it's not necessarily, say, for example, the quarter percent rate cut from the Fed. Well, I mean, there's a lot to digest there. I mean, I think it's a good question. What

do you make of it all? And for me, I mean, we talk often about with the interest rate environment being so low and the stock market being the only place to be, you know, I think. For me, it all kind of comes back to the consumer. With everything that's going on, a lot of this comes back to the consumer for me. I wonder where we go from here with unemployment rates so low. Clearly, a lot of people are out there working, yet you look at wage growth, and that's really a problem. A lot of people are working, but they're not making a lot of money. We are in an economy right now where it's really easy to do a lot of stuff.

for pretty cheap, right? With the exception of just a few things, housing, healthcare, those are two things right there. You think of with housing and health care, education being a third, I mean, those are areas that are becoming prohibitively expensive for a lot of people. And in the face of consumers that are facing a little bit more of a challenging time, I wonder if there's not a disconnect there. We heard a lot of the big bank CEOs talk about feeling good about the consumer. I can't help. I feel like that's backward-looking. I feel if you look at it going forward, I think, there's some challenges on the horizon for the consumer that could end up playing out on the economy a little bit more quickly than we imagine. For individual investors, I think for the most part, you have to ignore most of this macro

stuff. We like to talk about it on the show, because that's what we do each and every day. But for the most part, if you buy strong companies that you think have a bright future, then it's not going to matter whether an interest rate is a quarter percent higher or a quarter percent lower or whether the U6 unemployment rate. just dip to 7% from 7.2%. None of that really matters. And you have to realize that the economy will ebb and flow. We do go into recessions periodically.

Then we do move into growth mode periodically. The things you want to see are an independent Fed. You don't want the Fed being political. You want them to make monetary policy. You really want to be what's in the best interest of the economy as a whole and not subject to any political whims. And then as long as we buy good companies, and hold them for long term, I think it all works out.

Yeah, I do think that's a good point to reiterate is that's the idea of business-focused investing. We like to sit here and talk about this stuff, but we're kind of nerds. Let's face it, we could talk about this stuff all day long. I mean, it really does come back to the idea that business-focused investing is meant to be able to put this stuff aside, to make it not really a part of the story when you're taking that longer-term approach. So as the economy ebbs and flows like Ron's talking about, these businesses may be ebb and flow with it, but over a long period, of time. Good businesses are good businesses, and investors benefit from owning them. Let's get to earnings, and we'll start with an e-commerce stock hitting a new all-time high.

No, not Amazon. Well, I'm sure we'll mention it somehow. We're talking Shopify. Second quarter revenue for Shopify grew nearly 50% compared to a year ago. Ron, what'd you think? I think it's one of those ones I don't own. Incredible numbers, really. Continue to put a really, really incredible growth numbers. Revenue up 48%. The gross merchandise volume that flows through them up 51%. Subscription revenue, up 38%. These are very, very strong numbers.

Shopify now facilitates approximately 5% of all retail e-commerce sales, and that's placing it third behind, yes, Amazon and eBay. They're expanding their service offerings to continue to drive growth. That helped their merchant's solutions revenue to be up 56%. Now, they do remain unprofitable, and as I want to say often, profits do matter at some point. At least let's hope they do for rational investors. But they're continuing to spend heavily for growth and for expansion. And so we'll let them slide for now in terms of not bringing anything down to the bottom line.

But they did increase their revenue guidance. And that also came with increased operating loss guidance. So no profits anytime soon, but really impressive numbers. Shares of Apple down a bit this week, despite third quarter profits and revenue coming in higher than expected. Jason, the iPhone revenue continues to fall. And I'm wondering how big a concern you think that is. Well, I mean, this wasn't one of those Hoosier Daddy quarters. I mean, we're used to Apple really kind of just bringing the noise quarter and a quarter out.

This is a bit more subdued. But to your point in regard to the iPhone, it now is not the majority of revenue. As silly as this may sound, I think that's actually. actually a good thing, because we were headed there anyway. This was exactly the quarter that Apple needed to really show us they can continue this narrative of becoming something more than just a phone company. And so they are, they're doing good things with wearables, with services, but it's not all pinned on one particular product or service, right? I mean, AirPods are playing their role. The Apple Watch is playing its role. Apple Music, Cloud, all that

stuff is playing its own little role, and that's good. Phones are obviously still going to be a big part of the story. We're talking about 5G. That's a nice catalyst. Soon we'll be talking about 6G, and that'll be another catalyst. I was really excited to hear all of the talk about augmented reality on the call. I mean, that is something they're really investing a lot in. The AR Kit version 3.0 is the dominant platform out there, and Apple is doing some really cool stuff with it. For example, just Google the Apple AR Art exhibit. They're doing an augmented reality art exhibit where you can sign up, check out anyone in their stores worldwide. It's just a clever little way they're utilizing the technology, and I think that's a sign of

things to come in regard to that. The one area I'm probably not as big on, I mean, I think Apple Card and Apple Pay, they're fine, they're nice engagement for device owners there. They're just not really meaningful parts of the business, so I would probably encourage investors to temper their expectations there. But all in all, I think that, again, it was exactly the quarter they needed to continue the conversation. And they've got this incredible war chest of cash, right? which allows them to pay dividends, buyback stock, return lots of lots of capital to shareholders consistently year after year, and allows them, if they want, to make either tuck-in acquisitions

or perhaps big ones. So it could be bringing semiconductors and chips in-house or acquiring whole other kind of business lines. And let's hope they don't waste that money, as sometimes companies tend to do for the sake of growth. But I think that Warchest is a competitive advantage. Yep, and they did do that. They made that acquisition. They'll be wrapping that up with Intel's modem chip division there. That will, I mean, that is basically a 5G play, but you bring that in, you make yourself a little bit more vertical there, get a lot of intellectual property in the process, and that'll be something where I feel like they'll realize some good returns from that investment.

Pinterest's loss in the second quarter was smaller than expected. You pair that with Pinterest growing its base of monthly active users and shares up more than 20 percent on Friday, Ron. It was really impressive. It really was. I mean, they only went public back in April, if you recall, at $19. And here we are around 34-ish. That's pretty impressive. As you said, they beat expectations.

Revenue is up 62%. That's a huge number. Monthly active users up 30 percent, and now 300 million globally. Global average revenue per user, ARPOO, if you will, up 27.5 percent to 88 cents. What's interesting, though, is international ARPU is only at 11 cents versus US ARPOO, which is $2.80. So one has to kind of keep an eye on international. Is that business even worth focusing on if numbers are going to be that low?

US obviously much more robust. The company is still not profitable, but they did raise revenue guidance. Shares of Square down more than 15 percent on Friday. Jason, second quarter revenue looked good, but Square's guidance definitely spooked a few people on Wall Street. Yeah, I mean, it spooked them because I think typically when they turn in these types of results, Wall Street's expecting them to raise guidance a little bit, and they didn't do that this time.

They didn't ratchet guidance down either. It just left everything kind of status quo. So, you know, hey, the market being a little irrational, go figure. I mean, one of the great things about this business is, I think it's becoming more apparent the two-sided effect that it has, where it's not only helping out sellers, but I mean, it's really helping out buyers as well. We saw strong results, again, when we talk about gross payment volume going through. through their network, $26.8 billion. That was up 25%. Now, I always like to compare this to

PayPal's numbers because it just gives you some context. PayPal's total payment volume was $172 billion, so considerably higher. I think that shows a lot of opportunity there for Square. But again, I talked about the two-sided effect there with not only sellers, but buyers, talking about the cash app. The cash app drove $135 million in revenue for the quarter. And that's essentially up from nothing just a few years ago. So we're seeing a lot of the cash app. a lot playing out there with the network they're building on the buyer and seller side. A lot of attention there with the sale of caviar. I have to say, I love the fact that they did this because while caviar is a neat business, I guess it's the lower margin of business

of their entire model anyway. Right. We're not talking about the delicacy, right? Yeah, we're talking about the food delivery app. And it ultimately just doesn't really go in line with the rest of the business. I think it took away from focus. It took away from investing really, you know, those dollars in the wisest way. So to see them sell that off, I think, makes the most sense. And let's just put some context in here for listeners as far as this drop in share price today. Last quarter, Square shares closed at $73 and 62 cents the night before earnings. The next day the stock closed at $67.74. And we saw it hit $62.39 in subsequent

days, all based on the same exact thing here, guidance that perhaps didn't quite meet up to expectations. They're not profitable yet. They're getting there. But when you have a stock that's not based on fundamentals, this volatility happens. Still a very good business. I still own it myself. Coming up, the first name in household products is having a surprisingly good year. Details next. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Full Money, Chris Hill here in studio with Jason Moser and Ron Gross. Kellogg is best known for its line of breakfast cereals, but it was the snack division that drove second quarter results, pushing shares of Kellogg up nearly 10%. Meanwhile, Procter & Gamble hit an all-time high this week after a strong fourth-quarter report.

P&G also raising guidance for 2020, Ron. Yeah, I think P&G is the stronger story here. Beat expectations, organic sales up 7%, strongest in 13 years, strong demand for some of their beauty products. Organic sales in all of 10 of P&G's global categories grew. Very important. Price hikes really were important here. That's part of their new strategy to help offset increased freight and raw material costs. Gross margins widened, excluding items, EPS was up 17%. Now, they did take a big whopping $8 billion charge in the Gillette business. I think the writing was on the wall for some time about that, because obviously the shaving

business is not what it used to be. Lots of competition out there at cheaper price points. But overall, a really strong quarter. That stock is up 26 percent this year. It's nice for Kellogg shareholders because the narrative for so long has just been about the steady decline of breakfast cereal, so it's nice that the snack division is pulling its weight. But Procter & Gamble, I mean, you just think about this company as this solid blue chip. It's up more than 40% over the past year. This is like a growth stock. They've done a great job of getting rid of so many of their product lines that just weren't

getting it done. Then moving to a strategy of work. We're going to stop the discounting strategy. going to raise prices when we need to, because our margins are demanding it. And if we don't do something, our profitability is going to continue to wane. And it's all kind of worked out nicely. For Kellogg's, they're doing a good job, too. It's not as robust.

Net sales up 3%, for example. And if you recall, they sold their Keebler biscuit business for about a billion dollars back in April. But they are spending money, conversely, on some selective acquisitions to fuel some growth. And their earnings were pretty solid, up 8%. I've heard the word cereal too many times where I'd feel remiss if I didn't offer my opinion on a recent cereal that I tried. I was out of town. I got back. I found out my daughter bought the Sour Patch Kids cereal.

Oh, my. On the face of it, I was like, I can't imagine that's really good. I try to bowl. You know what? Not half bad. Sauer? A little bit sour, but then sweet. They kind of maybe you own something.

That sounds like a stock that goes into a quarterly report with super low expectations and they beat by a penny. I mean, maybe that's it. I don't know what's first on the grocery list for me. Maybe I'm just, I liked it better than I thought I would have. Shares of Under Armour down more than 20% this week. The Sports Apparel Company lost money in the second quarter and lowered guidance in North America. I mean, Jason, Nike had challenges in North America and turned it around, but Under Armour is still having them. Chris has been beside himself all week with this one. I get it. Listen, I mean, I think, you know,

we were talking about this. You see Under Armour stuff everywhere, and yet the stock is in the tank. I mean, the disconnect here is that Kevin Plank made a bad business decision a little while back in trying to raise inventory levels to get more stuff to more people more quickly. That didn't work out. Now, I think he's atone for that somewhat. He has some checks in place to get the business headed back in the right direction, namely in C-O-O Patrick Frisk. But to give you some numbers around this, we talk about North America sales.

This year, the first two quarters, they're down 3%, down 3%. A year ago, it was flat and up 2%. Inventory, though, I think this is really interesting. You look at inventory. This quarter was down 26%. Last year, same quarter, it was up 11. First quarter this year, inventory was down 24%. A year ago, it was up 27%. So they're doing the right things to get the financials back in order.

It's just going to take some time. Something to consider. Lululemon, a company we gave a really hard time over the past several years. Lululemon is a $24 billion market cap now, a $3 million. $3.4 billion in sales. Under Armour is a $9 billion market cap with $5.2 billion in sales. So you can see there is a big discrepancy there, and it's on the earnings side. Under Armour can turn this around. If they do, I think there are going to be a lot of nicer days ahead for investors. Beyond Meat announced second quarter results, as well as a secondary stock offering,

and shares of Beyond Meat felt 22% this week. Ron, this soon, we're going with a secondary offering? Yeah, forgetting about the stock for a second. Let's just talk about the business. Really getting it done. Net revenue up, 287 percent, as they continue to move into restaurants and other facility, other retail chains. They're actually kind of profitable if you take out non-recurring items. For example, adjusted EBITDA was about $6.9 million. So the company, for all its high-flyingness and all its newness, is actually growing and is making money. partners like Dunkin Brands, for example, a Beyond sausage, breakfast sandwich being tested. So really interesting. So now they wanted to make room for some of their former investors

and their CEO, for example, to get whole, get liquid. And so they announced a secondary offering at a pretty severe discount to where the stock price was. And that's why you saw the stock take that hit, not just regular dilution, but just, you know, you price it at a discount. the stock's going to adjust to where you priced it. But the stock has rebounded, not all the way, but a significant amount since then. It'll give the company some extra money to use for growth. Short interest remains pretty high on this one, because even though they're slightly profitable, the valuation is pretty enormous. Spotify's second quarter report featured hired revenue, more paid subscribers.

But Jason, considering this is the market leader in streaming music, this stock really hasn't gone anywhere since they went public in early 2018. Well, I mean, it's had a nice, interesting range there. I mean, but you're right. It's kind of where it started. I think the bottom line for investors is that streaming is the future. Industry data shows clearly that physical music is on the way out, and digital and streaming is the way it's going. And I think that Spotify is building the entertainment platform of the future where this is concerned.

A lot of forward-thinking there, a lot of early bets and things like podcasts and whatnot, are are starting to pay off. Like you said, users grew considerably 232 million. They have premium subs of 108 million now, up 31%. And we talk a lot about this with Disney's new streaming services. I think Spotify did a really good job on the pricing side here, because they have some room to raise prices as things go forward. And when you see Sirius making that acquisition of Pandora, that was a very defensive move. Nobody even listens to Pandora anymore, I don't think. So I think Sirius could be in a little bit of a spot of difficulty there as streaming continues to take over. If I'm going to ding Spotify, for one thing, it is the share-re purchases.

They bought back around $187 million worth of the shares over the quarter. Just invest that money elsewhere. Don't buy back more shares. All right, guys. We'll see you later in the show. Up next, Robert Brokamp. It's going to help you rule your retirement. Stay right here.

This is Motley Full Money. All right. Before we get to Robert ProCamp, quick thanks to DataSight 1 from Merrill Corporation, the market-leading due diligence app for the entire M&A life cycle, helping companies worldwide close more deals faster. When you're looking to execute due diligence, data site one has what you need. It's quick. New projects can be set up in minutes.

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You can speak to an expert at Datasite 1 like our team did and learn how to accelerate your due. diligence. Again, that's M-E-R-R-I-L-C-O-P.com slash Fool to sign up for a free, personalized demo. And thanks to Merrill Corp for their support. Now, on to Robert ProCamp. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. I'm Chris Hill. When it comes to retirement, do you want solid advice or do you want sizzle? That was the opening line of the very first issue of the Motley Fool's Rule Your Retirement newsletter, which debuted 15 years ago this summer, joining me in the studio is the author of that line, The Motley Fool's resident expert on retirement, certified financial planner, Robert ProCamp. Thanks for being here.

Such a pleasure. Such a great line. Don't you think, huh? I do think it's a great line. And there are things about retirement and money in general that I want to get to, but I do want to start with this first issue that you wrote 15 years ago, because it leads to a part of your past that I had forgotten, which is that there was a brief stint of time that you were on Wall Street where Sizzle was very much part of the culture. Yes, it's right up there with me being a seminarian and being a Polvolder that people find surprising to know about me. But yes, there was a time where I wore a suit every day and went into a branch of Prudential Securities and was a traditional broker.

And where did the Sizzle part come in? The Sizzle came from. So I joined an existing group of guys at Prudential. One of the main guys there was my high school English teacher's husband, who was a great guy. And another guy was a guy I used to play football against in high school, and I went to elementary school. So these were really good guys. But I did have to go through financial training with Prudential up in New York. And we'd learn from the various folks during the day. But at night, we had to cold call people.

And one of their lines was like, you've got to provide more sizzle, more sizzle, more sizzle. And that's where that comes from. I just like that you went to New York for financial training, but really, a big part of it was just salesmanship training. That's absolutely what it was. I mean, here's the deal about that whole experience. I was never really taught how to be a good financial planner, how to pick a good investment, what are the principles of asset allocation. I was taught who to contact in the firm for that. My job was to go out and acquire clients and acquire assets.

All right. Let's get to the financial landscape in America, because the last time you were on the show earlier this year, we talked about a couple of troubling numbers in terms of student loan debt, which continues to rise. The number of Americans in the millions who are laid on their car payments. When you look out across this country, what do you see that troubles you, because I'm assuming those two things are certainly student debt is still very much an issue. Is there anything that you've seen in the last couple of months that you think, boy, not a lot of people are talking about this, and this is a legitimate problem? Yeah, so to piggyback on that part, it is the debt that Americans have, but particularly

older Americans. So one of the stats I had mentioned when I was on the show in February, because I don't want to go into too much detail on this, was basically that the debt of folks who are 60 and older is up 84 percent since 2010. hurt your retirement plans in a couple ways. First of all, it's harder to save money when you owe so much money. But secondly, having debt payments in retirement increases your expenses, which means you have to draw money from your retirement accounts, which increases the chances you're going to run out of money, but that also drives up your tax bill. So it's definitely

one of my goals to go into retirement debt-free. But the other thing I would say that is among the biggest mistakes that people make when it comes to retirement is basically just retiring too soon. We all know that on average, the typical Americans not doing a great job of saving for retirement. Depending on what study, you look at something like 25% to a third of Americans have nothing saved retirement. And according to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. My alma mater. That's right. And home of America's oldest collegiate improv group, my mother's fleabag. Yes. Something you know about.

I know a little something about that. That's right. So the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College has found that 50% of Americans who retire at age 65 would basically have to cut down their lifestyle. They don't have enough saved. And the interesting thing about that is most people are not retiring at 65. Most people are still retiring at 62 or 63. The solution for this really is just working longer. There was a study released last year that found that just working six months longer would have

the same impact on your standard of living as if you had saved 1% more over the previous 30 years of your life, because that's the power of delaying Social Security, which increases your benefit. You're going to have a bigger 401k in IRA because it's more years for that to grow and you're going to be putting more money in it. And it's because you're frankly going to have a shorter retirement because you've retired later. Then you're going to end up with fewer years. You need to spread your money across. So the bottom line is really, in this country, 70 is the new 65 when it comes to retirement. Another study by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston college found that if people in America retired at age 70, around 90% of them would be

perfectly fine. Really? Mm-hmm. The compounding is that powerful. It is that powerful. Really, I mean, and a big part of it is Social Security. So for every year you delay between, around, between 65 and 70-year benefit goes up about 8%.

The great thing about Social Security is it's immune to the ups and downs of the stock market, and the benefit is increased for inflation every year. It really is the perfect source of retirement income. And for every year, you can work longer and increase that benefit, the better off you're going to be. You recently turned 50? It is true. Yes. Welcome to the club.

Thank you very much. As you get, maybe not close to retirement, but closer to retirement, what is, I mean, you've been doing this a while. What has been the biggest shift in your thinking when it comes to your own retirement? Yeah. First of all, I have to say, I was insanely happy that for years, I'm going to be a year. writing about how people who are 50 and older can contribute more to their 401ks and IRAs. I'm finally able to do it.

Very happy to be able to join that club. So a couple of things. One is related to that previous point of working longer. I know for a lot of people that's probably discouraging. But the truth is, there's a lot of research that indicates that retirement may not be healthy or even that interesting. So the average retiree watches four to six hours of TV a day. Retirees are 40% more likely to become depressed than those are working.

Because a lot of people get purpose from their jobs, a lot of people get social interaction from their jobs, and when you retire, it can be isolating. Something like 25 to 40 percent of people who retire eventually go back to work. Now, half of those people are doing it for money, but the other half is, frankly, they were just bored. So when I look at my own retirement plan, what my wife and I have been talking about is, all right, I think we're the type of people who will want to work well into our 70s. But that doesn't mean we want to put off everything that we want to do in retirement.

So we have the classic vision of riding around the country in an RV. So what we are planning on doing in a few years, once we're empty nesters, is getting an RV, driving around the country, but figuring out how we can do our jobs in an RV. Please tell me you're going to video that, because I would watch the hell out of that series. Well, another thing I'll add too is my wife is almost, she's almost 50, and she's now earning her PhD. So she's preparing for a new phase of her career. And I think anyone who is not happy with their current job,

and it thinks like the idea of working to their 70s basically makes them feel ill, they should think, well, what kind of job do I want to do until my 70s, especially if you haven't saved enough yet? And then what do you have to do to get that job? Because you might be perfectly happy working well into your 70s if you just change careers. Like my wife is, she's not totally changing careers, but she's adding a different aspect to it that she thinks is going to make her feel more satisfied with it. Now, as you're planning for this retirement, I don't want to get overly personal, but you're

also preparing for college for your children. That is something that I think a lot of people struggle with to some degree when they are thinking about balancing the financial requirements of paying for children to go to college with putting away money for their own retirement. How should people be thinking about weighing those two things? By far. The number one thing you should do is take care of. your own retirement first. There are so many ways for kids to go to college at a reasonable

price, whether it's in state, community college for a couple of years, or even just going to a normal, a regular college, but taking care of a lot of the electives at a community college in the summers. There are lots of ways to cut the costs. And even if you have to take out a loan, it's not unreasonable as long as it follows a good rule of thumb, such as you shouldn't and borrow more than the amount you will earn in your first year after college. So there's ways to go to college if you haven't saved. But if you haven't saved for retirement and you reach your 60s and 70s, you can't take it loans, you can't get a scholarship, you just can't retire. So it's definitely more important to save for retirement first.

Obviously saving for retirement is the number one problem in terms of what a lot of Americans struggle with. After that, like what's number two on the list? What's the number two on the list? What's What's the most common mistake that people make other than just not saving enough for retirement? Well, I think a lot of people, especially now when times are good, they take what has happened in the recent past and extrapolate it to the future. Unemployment is very low. I don't think anyone is now thinking about, like, I'm worried about losing my job. But everyone should have a plan B. Because at some point, there's going to be something that happens that's not as good. You're going to get laid off. Something's going to happen to your company. The stock market is going to drop. You may have heard a stat from the Federal Reserve that 40% of Americans couldn't cover a $400 expense.

It's a little bit of controversy about how accurate that is. But we do know the bottom line is most people don't have, I should say a lot of people don't have a sufficient emergency fund. A very high percentage of people don't have enough life insurance. The majority of people don't have an estate plan like a will and stuff like that. I'd say, generally speaking, just take a little bit of time to think of what could be, I wouldn't say a worst-case scenario, but what are some things that could torpedo your financial plan and take steps now to protect yourself from those? Well, and you touched on something that we've talked about before amongst our colleagues here at the Motley Fool for the last couple of years, which is you look at the bull market run now in its tenth year, and it can be hard sometimes to sort of remind yourself like, oh,

Right. A downturn is coming. It is absolutely coming. In terms of retirement planning, is there a general rule of thumb in terms of a number to, like, reasonably, if you're looking to project out how your money can grow for the next 10, 20 years, is there a general rule of thumb number we should use? Right. So the only, the way, like the ups and downs of the stock market really matter to me as a retirement planner is that I am always using retirement calculators to determine what whether I've saved enough. And the evidence is clear that when you start at a point where the stock market has a high valuation, the returns over the next decade or so are going to be below

average. So I think anyone that uses any kind of calculator determine whether they're saving enough for retirement, for college, any other financial goal, should assume that the stock markets returns over the next decade. We don't know what it'll be over the next year or two or three, but we'll be lower. I mean, closer to 5 or 6 percent rather than the long-term average of 10 percent and the 15% we've seen over the last decade. Do you think, as we wrap up, that there's, do you ever think about the alternate universe, the alternate universe where you stay on Wall Street? You're great at the sizzle.

You stay on Wall Street. I feel like in that universe, you have a lot more money, but you don't look as good as you do. You're probably not as healthy. Thank you very much. And your soul is just pretty empty. That's what I think. So again, the guys I was working with are just such great guys. Like, really, the one guy who was my high school English teacher's husband.

Hey, Joe. It really was a father figure to me, so I think I could have been happy. It would have meant that I continued to live in Florida where I grew up. But I actually am happier here in Virginia. I like the seasons. I like the mountains. I think I still could have been happy. I would have gone to more Tampa Bay Bucks games, for example.

But I'm pretty happy being a fool. You can get a weekly dose of Robert Brokamp by listening to more. Motley Fool answers, the free weekly podcast from The Motley Fool. He's a certified financial planner. He runs Rule Your Retirement. We love him. And hopefully, he's going to be working here until he's well into his 70s. Brokamp.

Thanks for being here. I love you, too, Chris. Coming up, we'll give an inside look at the stocks on our radar. Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Full Money. Mublin on Spongecake, watching the sun bake. All of those tourists covered with all. As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the

Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy ourselves stocks based solely on what you hear. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money, Chris Hill, here in studio once again with Jason Moser and Ron Gross. Our email address is Radio at Fool.com. Question from Eric Davis, who writes, I just listened to the analysis of Bed Bath and Beyond on another podcast. And he adds parenthetically, sorry, I sometimes listen to non-Motley Fool podcasts.

That's fair. All the positive things they said sounded good, but I have a hard time getting over my personal opinion that this is just a bad business. I'd love to hear your team's thoughts. Ron, what do you think of the business of Bed Bath and Beyond? I think we dump on this company a lot, and for good reason. I mean, it's been a tough, tough go with all the competition out there. And certainly Amazon is the big one there. But I'll take maybe, I think Jason will disagree perhaps.

I don't think it's over yet. I think there's a place for bedbeth and beyond. You've got three separate activist investors in there trying to get things done. I think you can shrink the footprint, close underperforming stores, clean up the stores. The merchandising is horrendous. How about less scus? Less products offered. And I think there's a place for a profitable bed bath. What do you think, Jason? Maybe. I mean, I'd probably take the other side of that bed. I do feel like it's a bad business, generally speaking. I think it's just one that's being displaced through time and take

So for investors, there probably is something here in an acquisition or some type of value-realizing event. The problem is, if you want to jump in there and try to participate as a retail investor on our level, it's very difficult to do so because you have to know something, right? Otherwise, you're just kind of flipping the coin. And when I get to that point, well, there are just a lot of great opportunities out there. So I wouldn't even put this one on my list of consideration. Question from Sal, who writes, I'm looking for a stock suggestion.

to hold for the future in the segment of auto parts. Research shows that the number one cost for auto repairs is sensors. I believe that as new car sales slow and the increase of autonomous vehicles is on the horizon, a good long-term holding will be in the manufacturers of these auto sensors, if I'm not too late. Do you have any recommendations for stocks to consider? I like how he's thinking there. That makes perfect sense. I think that thesis is a good one. When I think of auto parts manufacturers, four names just popped into my head, advanced auto O'Reilly, genuine parts. And AutoZone, I think AutoZone is probably the better of the four, the better position, certainly

the better historically, from both the price perspective, as well as an operational perspective. It's only 17 times forward earnings, so not even expensive at this point. Also, AutoZone has a really good track record in terms of buying back their own stock. I'll probably take it a little bit of a different direction. check out Nvidia. Invidia's drive platform, just Google that up in your autonomous vehicle development platforms. They're developing chips that are really helping steer. No pun intended, that autonomous vehicle movement forward. All right, before we get to the stocks on our radar, if you're looking for even more

stock ideas and recommendations, you can check out our flagship service, Stock Advisor. You'll get stock recommendations from Tom and David Gardner. You'll get their best buys now and a lot more. Just go to Radarstocks.fool.com. That's Radar. stocks.fool.com. And yes, of course, we've arranged for a nice discount for our dozens of listeners. Let's get to the stocks on our radar. Our man behind the glass this week, Marketfulery producer, Dan Boyd, sitting in. He's going to hit you with a question. Ron Gross, you're up first. What are you looking at? I'm going to go back to Waste Management, WM, which really hasn't moved much since I last talked about it. Obviously, a trash removal and recycling company to, you know,

helping residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers, a dominant company, and a very essential business, limited outside threats. They have a strong competitive advantage in that they're entrenched in North America's largest network of landfills. They've got organic growth. They've got acquisition-based growth. They've increased their dividends for 16 consecutive years. Dan, question about waste management? Yeah, Ron, I got a hypothetical question for you. Yes, sir. Let's say somebody's going through your trash. What are you worried about them finding? That's interesting, because every time my wife says, shouldn't we be shredding the bills and shredding this and that? I go, no, it's fine.

So now the whole country is going to be digging into my garbage. Jason Moser, what are you looking at this week? Yeah, new company on the radar here. I haven't talked about it much. Tel-Doc, Mac, that was for you. Yeah, earnings out this week for Teladoc, another good quarter. A couple of leadership additions there with Mala Murthy coming on to CFO and David Sides in the position of C-O-O-O. So rounding that executive team out is a good thing. Strong metrics continue with members and visits, growing nicely, resulting in strong utilization. And there's some good catalysts on the horizon here. As Medicare Advantage comes into play into 2020, we're just going to open them up to a very large additional membership opportunity. And then the CVS and Etna relationship just continues to develop a lot of positive language in the call there. So a lot of things going on with these guys.

And the ticker? T-D-O-C. Dan, question about Teledoc? Yeah, Jason, what procedure are you not interested in Skyping your doctor about? You know, that would probably be something like a hernia operation. I've actually, believe it or not, had a couple of hernia operations. I'm over it. But I feel like you've got to be face-to-face.

I really want to know he's giving us the appropriate attention. You got a stock. You want to add to your watch list, Dan? I'm breaking the streak. No, just kidding, Ron. Sorry, I'm going with Teledy. All right. Jason Moser, Ryan Gross, thanks for being here. Thanks, thanks. That's going to do it for this week's edition of Motley Full Money. Our engineer is Dan Boyd. Our producer is Mac Career. I'm Chris Hell. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next week.