Motley Fool Money - The Year of Concentration, Crypto, China

Episode Date: December 13, 2024

2024 was another stellar year for investors, but a lot of money is piling into the same places in the U.S. and globally.   (00:46) Bill Mann and Matt Argersinger discuss: - Why 2024 was such a good year for investors, and the concerns they have about valuations and market concentration as they look ahead to 2024. - The winners and losers of 2024 and the front-page stories you may have forgotten about – the Crowdstrike outage and Yen Carry Trade.  (19:05) James Zahn, Editor in Chief at The Toy Book, talks through the toys at the top of wish lists this holiday season and how toymakers and retailers are trying bring value to cash-strapped shoppers - James Zahn’s now-published article on Moxie: https://toybook.com/death-of-moxie-and-the-trouble-with-tech-toys/  (34:35) Bill and Matt break down two ideas on their radar: Nebius and Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield Stocks discussed: NVDA, NBIS, FYLD Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Tim Beyers, Mary Long, Ryan Henderson Engineers: Tim Sparks, Dan Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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It's the end of 2024. I bet you totally forgot about this week's Motley Fool Money Radio Show starts now. That's why they call it money. The best thing. Cool global headquarters. This is Motley Fool Money Radio show. I'm Dylan Lewis. Joining me over the Airwaves, Motley Fool senior analysts, Matt Argusinger and Bill Mann.

Fools, great to have you both here. Dylan. How you doing, Dylan? I'm doing great because we are getting to put a bow on 2024. This is our annual look back. we're going to be checking in on the winners and losers of the past year, maybe reminding listeners of a couple of things that they forgot about in the news cycle over the last 12 months. I'm going to kick us off with a rolling market check-in.

As we tape, 11 market days remaining, S&P 500 up 27% year-to-date, NASDAQ up 35% year-to-date, Dow up 16% year-to-date. Matt, unless something unprecedented happens in the next two weeks, 2024 will go down as a good year for stock investors. Oh, that's an understatement, Dylan. Yeah, good. I'd say a remarkable year. Anytime you can have the broader market up almost 30% is a pretty amazing year for the market.

But, you know, actually, Dylan, it's been a remarkable two-year run for the market. If you look at the NASDAQ 100, since the start of 2023, it's up nearly 100%. The S&P 500 is up more than 60%. And I'll just say this. And this is something David Gardner says all the time. You know, the market is up two out of every three years. We've had two really strong years now. Valuations kind of where they're at, especially for the U.S. stock market.

I mean, this is from Yardini research. The S&P 500 is currently trading at a 4P multiple. This is based on earnings for the new year, 2025. It's trading at a 4PE multiple of 22. You kind of have to go back to 1999 to get a multiple that's higher than that. And by the way, Yardini's mega cap 8. which is defined as Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, NVIDIA, and Tesla. So the companies we talk about all the time, they're trading at an average 4P multiple of 31.

So two strong years, closing in on record valuations, can we or should we expect 2025 to be another year where the market goes up 20% or more? I think things get a little more challenging from here, but that's just me. You know, it's really interesting. Thomas Petterfee, who is the founder of Interactive Brokers, said the other day that the Magnificent Seven represents about 70% of the trading volumes on their platform. And he also came out and said, you know what else is up this year? And this should be no surprise whatsoever. Margin loans are up 16%. So there is definitely a risk on environment that we are in. And the really remarkable thing to me about this year is ultimately how stable it's been. You know, there haven't been huge swings.

It's just been, hey, the market's up half a percent every single day, it seems. And ultimately, there is nothing quite as destabilizing as long-term stability. So Bill's number for the year was that 70 percent IAB activity and kind of showing some of the concentration there. You hit at that a little bit as well, Matt, when you were talking about the big companies that are in focus and we are checking it on the valuations of there. What's your stat for the year? Well, it's funny. I also have a 70% number. And it's sort of similar to bills, 70%.

But this is coming from Rooker Sharma. I hope I'm pronouncing that first name correctly. But he is the chair of Rockefeller International, big money management firm. He wrote a piece in the Financial Times a couple weeks ago that with the headline, the mother of all, bubbles. Maybe a tad hyperbolic. I don't know. But in that article, he points to the fact that U.S. companies alone now account for roughly 70% of the global market cap. That's, of course, far higher than America's 27% share of the global economy. It's, of course, much, much higher than America's 4% share of the global population. And Charmer also points out that in 2024, foreigners are on pace

to purchase $1 trillion of U.S. debt. That's almost done. double the flows to the entire Eurozone and 70% of the $13 trillion in total capital flows to private investments, that stock, bonds, corporate debt, it's all flowing to the U.S. So I think we all agree at this table. America is an exceptional place. It's an exceptional place to invest. It's an exceptional place to do business. But are we really this exceptional?

I mean, I'm sure Bill would agree. I think foolish investors would be well served to start looking a little bit, just a little bit outside the U.S. for some opportunities. And by the way, I'm looking in the mirror at this as well. We need to be really careful that we're not just talking about mean reversion investing. But, yeah, the U.S. market is rather expensive, and it is historically expensive versus other countries. But I think in a risk-on environment, what you are seeing in the diversion between the U.S. and a lot of other countries is that we have a much different attitude about risk and capital formulation, formation than you see, particularly in Europe, where they have now zero of the largest

10 companies in the world by market cap. They are all in the United States. And for whatever else you want to say about it, it's not by accident. As you guys are factoring in the valuation side of things, the concentration side of things, both within the U.S. and also the U.S.'s presence in the global markets, are you incorporating that into how you are managing your own money for the year? Are you putting a little bit more cash on the side as we head into 2025, Matt? I would like to. Let's say, let's put it that way, Dylan. I haven't. I am pretty much fully invested across all my portfolios, but it does have me thinking that maybe given where we've come the past two years as we've talked about, having a little cash on the sidelines would not hurt.

Bill, you? No, I'm pretty. much fully invested. I have taken a little bit more into, and put it into companies that I guess you would describe as value driven. I don't see as many obvious bargains as you would have seen 18 months ago. But that doesn't mean that the market has overshot at all. I mean, I think that there is, there is plenty to be said for the great change that we are seeing now, the capital efficiency of the companies, particularly at the largest end of the U.S. stock market. I want to check in on some of the winners and losers. We talk about Nvidia all the time. So I'm not going to bring it into this discussion other than to say up 170 percent,

we have to name check it. What company was that? I haven't heard of this. This is crazy. Little chip company. Number three, when it comes to top performers in the S&P 500 this year, A lot of other names we talk about plenty, Palantir at the top of that list, Axon in the top five. Something I want to zoom in on with some of the winners for 2024. Five out of the top 10 performers in the S&P 500 are companies with energy exposure. Fistro Corp, number two, GE-Vernova, number five, Texas Pacific Land Corp, number seven, Target Resources and Constellation Energy rounding out of the top 10.

Bill, what's going on here? You know, just a moment ago, I was warning against mean reversion investing, but here's the thing about means. They're really powerful, and they do love to revert. And the energy sector is a big example. In 2021, the energy sector made up about 3% of the total marking cap of the S&P 500. And what you see, I mean, even at the time when we were talking about the metaverse and crypto, and now you're seeing it with AI, none of this is happening without some real investments into energy across the board. And so you are seeing companies that have been ignored for a very long time. Suddenly people are paying attention to the fact that, hey, our future requires an enormous

amount of electricity, an enormous amount of power. And if we don't have it, then every other thing that we are thinking is going to have, happen, won't happen. Couldn't agree more, Bill, and I just have to say, I know, Dylan, I said, I know you said we can't talk about it, but I have to because Bill brought up the energy sector. If you look at Nvidia's market cap right now, $3.5 trillion, you could buy the entire, if you sold Nvidia, you could buy the entire energy sector, all the companies you just talked about, plus the giants like Exxon, Chevron, Oxidon, Petroleum, everything else,

you'd still have money left over to buy Walmart, Coca-Cola, and J.P. Morgan. And by the way, if you did that, you'd be getting more dividends from those companies than Nvidia earns an entire year. So, sorry, I just had to bring it into the conversation just again. It's the ultimate conglomerate. If Nvidia were to own all those businesses, it's the like Chevron, Texan, Chipotle of Walmart a couple years ago. Man, I can't wait to start researching this obscure.

company that you guys have been talking about. I think you're going to like what you see, Bill. Those are some of the clear winners of 2024. I do want to talk about some of the losers. Matt, what makes the list for you? Well, pretty much every REIT, especially the ones I've talked about on this show. I mean, it's been a tough slog for the real estate sector for two years now. You know, if you look at the average real estate ETF up about 10% this year, not a bad year, really,

but just really lagging behind the market, of course, which is, again, almost up 30%. And by the way, real estate is one of those few sectors that still has not recovered all its losses from the 2022 bear market. If you look at the Vanguard real estate ETF, it's still down about 19% from its former high from a few years ago. So for a guy who likes REITs and invests in them, it hasn't felt good the past two years, but I'm getting to see potential opportunity that, you know, talk about mean reversion, as Bill was saying. They don't love you back. They don't. What would be a radio show, radio show appearance by Matt Argersinger, if we didn't talk a little real estate? Bill, what's on your loser list this year?

For me, it's got to be the low-cost, full-serve restaurants, the casual dining restaurants, you know, obviously red lobster's gone bankrupt, TGI Fridays, Chili's. They are all in a great deal of distress. And I think it has to do with the fact that there's been a trade down from those restaurants in an inflationary environment. And there has not been as much of a trade down from the top end. to the lower end. All right, jents, appreciate you bringing your stories. We're going to come right back in a minute with the stories that our listeners probably forgot about. Stay right here. You're listening to Motleyful Money. I'm Dylan Lewis. Here on air with Bill Mann and Matt Argusinger. We are recapping an excellent year for the market in 2024 and looking at some of the major themes

in the investing world, maybe reminding our listeners a little bit about some stories that they forgot about. And Bill, I love the full year show. I love the look back. But the stories people forgot about is my favorite segment. And there have been no shortage of headlines, no shortage of really big market moving things this year in that flurry, some easy things to miss or kind of have slip to the back of your mind. What do you want to bring back forward? I'm old enough to remember August 5th of this year in which we had a very short-lived global financial crisis based on the Japanese yen carry trade. We woke up and the Niki 225 had dropped more than 12%, which I don't know if you know this is kind of a lot.

Quite a bit, yeah. Yeah, that's more than usual. It was a massive drop, and it had to do with the fact that Japan for the first time in decades, it was preparing, seemed to be preparing to raise their interest rates at a period of time in which the U.S. and other markets were most likely going to be lower in rates. And so what happens is a lot of people will borrow money in a cheap currency, and you use it to invest in speculative instruments in the countries where currency is more expensive. And so it was this wild unwinding.

It lasted, I don't know, 48 hours, but there was a pretty scary 48 hours. And now we've just forgotten about it. Everything is fine. Yeah, the fix was up went up to like 65, Bill. It was like the highest since the global financial crisis. It was amazing for, yeah, just for that really short period of time. And as it happened, it affected the S&P 500. I think several whole percentage points.

It felt like a big, massive move for investors here in the United States, even though it was all related to stuff happening when it came to monetary policy abroad. The market has continued to march on, Bill. It has not seemed to mind the yen carry trade at all. No, if you look at the chart now, you'll see this tiny little blip in the chart that, you know, it's super easy to forget what happened because ultimately it didn't matter, but it did that day. Matt, what do you want to bring back into front and center?

for investors as we wrap up the year. Well, just about two weeks before, yeah, this yen carry trade catastrophe hit the market, we had this little software error, if you guys remember, that kind of brought airlines, especially Delta Airlines, to a standstill for like a week. I remember this pretty clearly because my five-year-old son and I were trying to get back from Boston to D.C. We got stuck at Logan Airport for like eight hours, had to get a hotel, it was a mess. But this was, yeah, this was a software glitch that happened when a crowd strike, I guess,

tried to update some of their software, sent an update, and any machines using Microsoft operating systems, all of a sudden fell victim to this glitch. It froze networks, it froze databases, all kinds of stuff. Like I mentioned, airline travel came to a stand. So other companies, though, around the globe were also affected. And while we're still trying to find out the ultimate financial liability of it all, it kind of also showcased just kind of how vulnerable our software systems are

to changes in code or worse hacks or cyber attacks. And so, and we kind of forget, but CrowdStrike stock price was down about 30% or maybe even more from its high. I think it's recovered most of those losses now. But that was quite a moment there for about a week. That is why this is my favorite discussion is because I think across the board when we talk about these stories, they feel so massive and impactful to shareholders and to investors in the moment.

But when we take that long view, we're able to kind of see, all right, this is a, an opportunity for business to execute and keep moving forward. It's an opportunity for the market to keep rewarding shareholders along the way. And it's an opportunity for us as fools to live out the long-term buy-and-hold approach that we want people to maintain. So it's a dose of reminder. I will throw one out that is not a bad thing. It's just a thing. And I think it's an interesting market mechanics thing.

I bet that listeners forgot that the SEC approved a Bitcoin Spot ETF in 2024. And the reason for that is because so much. much of the headlines have been about the consumer side of Bitcoin, it passing $100,000, it hitting $2 trillion in coin cap, so to speak. The AUM for Bitcoin ETFs is over $100 billion at this point. That is a lot of money. And regardless of your take on Bitcoin and crypto, I think you are seeing the legitimacy path for this continue to be built out and built out. And Bill, I look at it and I say, you know what? It is here. It is hard to untangle something that has been this institutionalized at this point.

Yeah, you can't unring that bell and you're talking about it as an asset of stored value. And at least I think you would have to admit even if you were a skeptic, which I am, that, you know, we have passed a, we have passed a point in which that is an arguable prospect. I think some people could argue 2024 was the year of Bitcoin for some people that are true Bitcoin truthers and believers. I'm going to give you both the opportunity to fill in the blank there, though. Matt, 2024 was the year of blank for you. Well, this might be surprising, but 2024 was the year of bankruptcies, Dylan. So this is data from S&P Global, kind of shocking to me, but the number of corporate bankruptcies,

both public and private companies that S&P covers in their universe, the bankruptcies hit 570 as of the end of October. That puts it on pace for a 14-year high, and it could come close to exceeding, 2010 when 710 companies filed for bankruptcy. And of course, that was coming right out of the global financial crisis, a really vulnerable time for the economy. So kind of surprising, and you got notable bankruptcies.

Bill mentioned Red Lobster, one of the more notable ones, but we had WeWork, which was a $15 billion bankruptcy. Joanne Stores, 99 cents only. A lot of stores that people are familiar with went bankrupt this year. Bill, what are you characterizing 2024 as the year of? I'm going back Brady Budge, but instead of Marshall, Marshall, Marshall. Marsha, this entire year has been China, China, China, on a bunch of different levels.

We started this year with China conducting massive military exercises to really destabilize Taiwan, try and intimidate them. You can see the Taiwanese companies have adjusted by doing things like building plants outside of Taiwan. You now see China really trying to reignite its own economy. it's pushing a piece of spaghetti by trying to solve a demand side issue with supply side economics. Good luck to them. But China is a big, big story for 2024.

I appreciate right after I brought us up. You guys brought me right back down. Right on a downer there. Everything is terrible. Back to you, Bill. Bill, Matt, we're going to see you guys a little bit later in the show. Up next, we've got your last minute gift guide and how the toy industry is trying to offer more discount options this holiday season. Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Full Money.

Welcome back to Motley Full Money. I'm Dylan Lewis. As we tape today's show, we're less than two weeks away from Christmas Day. And if you put off some of your holiday shopping, don't worry. You're in good company. So have I. To get on track and up to speed on the trends this holiday season, I caught up with James Zahn. He's the editor-in-chief at the Toy Book and my go-to for the state of play for the holidays. James, thanks for joining me on Motley Full Money. Thanks for having me again, looking forward to this. Yeah, it's becoming an annual visit, and we are very appreciative of it.

I want to dig right in here. For 2024, what's hot, what's not when it comes to toys? Well, there's a lot of classic stuff that's been reinvented, and I think one of the coolest items we've seen this here comes from Hasbro, which is the Play-Doh Pizza Delivery Scooter. So they've taken Play-Doh, which they've been making for decades and this tactile kind of compound play. and then they made a ride on, which looks a lot like a Vespa scooter, and it has all kinds of things built into it for different play value, that there's molds that the kids can make pizza and other things, and then pretend they're the delivery driver.

And when they get to their destination, they can flip down aside and the cash registers there and then charge their friend or family member for this pizza, and then be on their way. And of course, parents love the fact that it all packs right back into it. So I think that's an innovative new concept to combine active play with the creative play. From there, I think Fat Brain Toys, their air tubes line has been very innovative. It's been very hot. I've actually heard that, unfortunately, depending on how you look at it, some of the flippers are going after this one because it's a, about a $150 base kit where kids are going to learn about things like velocity and the speed of air.

and they put these foam balls through the tubes, and then they have an expansion pack that has a wacky-waving, inflatable flailing arm tube man that the kids can play with. And this is one of those toys, too, that transcends, where I think the box might even say something like zero to 100 on it. Grownups love this thing, too, and they can make layouts that go throughout their living room or family room.

And it's a lot of fun. Nintendo is on the video game side. They came out with a ton of games, but it's a little bit unusual. You usually have that one or two sort of big titles for fall. They did five or six of them. There's a new Legend of Zelda game. There's Mario Party Jamboree, which up to 20 folks can play online at one time.

And there's 120 mini games built into that. There's sequel to Luigi's Mansion. There's a Mario and Luigi Brotherhood game. Lots of fun. And the Switch is one of those game consoles that, because you can play with other folks, friends and family. It's a nice bonding thing through the holidays. I remember last year when we were talking about this, you had kind of noted that there are some pitfalls when it comes to the tech reliant toys or the app reliant toys. And I want to

get your take on the story that I saw this week. The headline was, you know what I'm going with this one? Is it Moxie? It is, yeah, yeah. The $800 AI robot that the company is now shutting down. What is your take on this? So my take is that I actually have about a thousand words written on this that I haven't published yet. But I, you know the band The Hives? They've got the song, Hates It Say I Told You So. Yeah. I really do because 11 years ago, I wrote a review of a toy called Zimmies that was basically a plush alien.

But it was dependent on an adult putting their iPhone, which at the time I think we were on iPhone 3 in the face of this thing. And then there was an app and the app became the expressions of the toy. And at the time, I said, I think the real business here is the app, not the plush, because anybody can make a plush. But what happens when the support for that app goes away? The toy is essentially dead. And I had equated that to how are tech toys going to become timeless. Whereas if I go back now today, 40 years, I find an old Teddy Rucks bin, I can put a tape in it, batteries, it works. These cloud-based toys, and now we've had an incredible year on the development side where there's a lot of AI coming into toys. But already, now we see this $800 toy goes away.

So now you have to talk to your kids essentially about death, that this was a toy that was designed to be a company. companion and to teach kids emotion and compassion. And if you look at that frequently asked questions that they put up about closing, they can't even tell you definitively when it's going to shut down. So it could literally die in front of the kids because they're like, it could be today, it could be tomorrow. We honestly can't tell you. So that is a concern.

And I also saw just within the past year, Toy Fair, 2023 was. in New York in September of last year. And one of the products that came out was an AI version of an old toy from the 70s called 2XL from Migo. And they rushed to ship some of those for the last holiday season and then did a formal launch in March. I kid you not this morning. After this conversation started, I went to their website and visitors are greeted with a pop-up that says, we are investigating an app outage, more details to come, and the toy is not available on their website, and Amazon says currently unavailable. So I think this is a very cautionary tale. So one of the things I wanted to get your take on, too, with what we're looking at for the holidays

and both the toy and entertainment space is we had a lot of really big names this holiday season at the box office, a lot of big recognizable names, Wicked, Moana, to, Gladiator 2, are you seeing those properties and the merch associated with them creep into wish lists this year? Gladiator, I have not. And I know it was years ago and the movie was even old at that point. Funko, who had made some Funko pops, I believe, based on the first Gladiator. I have not seen anything for the new one outside of the popcorn buckets, which have become

a really trendy thing in the industry. They called them vessels. I know they did a couple for the movie. Wicked is the big success story because no one knew just how big that movie was going to become. They expected, of course, with the book and the Broadway play that there was going to be an audience. But I think Target had really great execution with that. They did some partnerships where they did nice pull-togethers in their stores. They had exclusive merchandise.

Mattel has the Dulls. Jack's Pacific's disguise division makes the costumes for Wicked, and those are on the market, and some of those are what we call everyday dress-up, too, where the kids can, it's not just a Halloween or a seasonal thing, but some really great products there. Moana, too, is back in action, and actually, Jacks is making Moana Two toys as well, and so is Mattel, as well as the same two companies, they're both doing Moana. I think the next big one that's going to hit here this week is Sonic the Hedgehog 3. There's a nice assortment of toys with that.

And very interesting trajectory with the Sonic movies. The first movie had very few toys because no one knew if that movie was going to be a success or not. Because at that time, video game movies were really hit and miss, but it was almost a one-two punch of Detective Pikachu from Pokemon. and Sonic the Hedgehog coming out and being great movies. So the toys have gotten better and they've become more of them each time. You mentioned the relationship between Wicked and Target,

and it feels like they have followed a fairly similar playbook to what Barbie did with its release, where you have a massive, highly anticipated release. You have this incredibly coordinated merch retail strategy as well, I feel like people in the toy business, but also in the movie business, are probably taking notes on that style, and we might wind up seeing some more of it. It's an old school approach that we need to see more of. And I have actually been all year, I've been a little bit notoriously aggressive towards the retail side of the business,

because retail presentation, and I live in this toy bubble, but I see all of it, also worked in the retail side of the business many years ago. It's pretty dismal in the U.S. compared to the international markets. If you go into an international toy seller, like a Smiths or the entertainer or Hamleys or something, these great presentations. And then we're even seeing a lot of really exciting retail activations throughout Asia, Dubai, big statements. That used to be a thing here, if there was a new product launch or a new movie, you could walk into, of course, Toys R Us or Target or Kmart back in the day, Walmart, and at both entrances of the store, you would typically walk into an environment that was built around that film, and it would have the toys and everything

else that goes with it, all the ancillary stuff. I don't see as much of that anymore, and I think that's a bit of an issue. Wicked tapped into that in a bigger way, in my opinion, than Barbie, with the Target promo because they had all of it. They had the toys. They had the clothes. They had a lot of fashion involved in that. But then they also have like, I think it's Betty Crocker cake and muffin mixes and their cereal and all of the things.

In a way, think of Star Wars. Like when the prequels came out about, well, 25 years ago now, I think when the Phantom Menace came out, there was that big retail presentation marketing. It's statement, retail theater, and I'd like to see more of that. And I think there's a lot of opportunities for people to do that. I'd like to see, of course, the big boxes like to see Walmart getting involved in that a little bit more. Macy's has a lot of opportunity. I mean, they've got a Toys R Us department in every store.

So it's pretty interesting how that all plays out. On the retailer side, one of the things we've been following over the course of the year has been this trend of consumers either trading down. or delaying for a lot of purchases. And that's looked like a lot of would-be target shoppers instead going to Walmart or people deciding, you know, I'm going to delay that more discretionary purchase. And yet we look at some of the early numbers we've seen on Black Friday, some of the insights from Cyber Monday.

And it seems like the spend has continued. Is this just people find the way they find the budget when it comes to the holiday gifts? Or is there anything else going on here? The one time of the year when parents are typically not going to skimp on their kids is going to be the holidays. And that's been a tradition for years. Parents want to do the best they can for their kids. So you will see some of those spends. In the toy department, inflation has been a huge issue.

A lot of the other economic concerns. A lot of mixed messages out there. I'm sure you see it with the job market. One side says, hey, it's great. It says, no, it's not. People get concerned. They hear all of the noise, and then they don't know, and they kind of pull back. So what's happened on the toy side is that toy makers and retailers are really being collaborative

in developing new products that hit certain price points. So we're seeing this year a lot of $999 toys, sort of 9, 10, 15, 20, 25. That's sort of the sweet spot. You look at what a lot of these companies are doing, Hasbro, for example, last year they had a $70 Furby. This year it's a $10 fur blet. It's a little version. MGA Entertainment with their miniverse line and a lot of other toys that are in that 10 to 15 range. That's really, really important.

And you have to design from the get go to hit this. And then now we've got this other factor, which is if tariff concerns kick it. I mean, the concerns have kicked in. But if tariffs actually happen, that's a whole new layer of trouble that the industry needs to fight off again. What's amazing is I think when we think about shrinkflation, it is always with food. You are getting slightly less for that thing that you used to buy or, you know, retailers trying to offer slightly less to hit a more accessible price point.

I have never thought about toys being a possibility for shrinkflation. And yet the smaller furbies, some of these smaller toys, probably a little bit easier for some of these companies to produce and make cost effective in a tough environment. That's true. And then you also have companies designing for the value channels now. Take five below, for example. It's very well known for having trendy products

and really tap into that tween market and tweens and even teens now, very important to the toy business as well. So in the past, where you might have, say, some closeouts or something, go into that value channel. Now they're designing for the value channel, and they're hitting different scales of product. And one great one I can point out, there's this company in LA called the Loyal Subjects, and they have found a niche in resurrecting old brands and making them super popular again. Right now, Rainbow Bright and Strawberry Shortcake. And they have the big dolls, but they also have the miniature collectibles, and those you can go to five below and find. And they're

They're designed for that. They're designed to be a $5 toy. So if you have $5, they've got you. You want to spend $20? Well, they got you on that, too. But you get them at different places. Listeners, you can catch James's piece on Moxie and the show notes for today's episode if you're listening to our podcast.

And you can catch his coverage on the industry over at toybook.com. Also, we want to know what was on your holiday list this year. Let us know what the must-have items were. Our email is radio at fool.com. We're going to take a quick break, But don't go anywhere. Matt Argersinger and Bill Mann are going to be coming back in just a minute with stocks on their radar. You're listening to Motley Fool money. As always, people on the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about,

and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against. It's not a price of anything based solely on what you hear. All personal finance content follows Motleful editorial standards and does not approve by advertisers. Myleful only picks products and personally recommend a friends like you. I'm Dylan Lewis, joined again by Matt Argersinger and Bill Mann. Jens, we've spent a lot of time reminiscing, so we are going to jump right in to stocks on our radar this week. As always, our man behind the glass, Rick Engdahl is going to hit you with a question. Bill, you're up first. What are you looking at

this week? My company is called Nebius Group. It went into a cocoon. It was a Russian do-everything company called Yandex. And I don't know if you guys heard, but Russia is bad, but it is now, has come back. It is a Dutch company called Nebius, and they run data centers. They have some huge assets that I think are deeply undervalued. Interestingly enough, they got to a $700 million investment from NVIDIA announced this week. It has come back from, not necessarily the dead, but it has come back from exile. It's going to be really interesting to see

what this company does going forward. Rick, a question about nebius. I got nothing. Very nebulous. Terrible names. We have some follow-ups in a moment. Matt, what is on your radar this week? So, guys, I'm reading an excellent book called Shareholder Yield by Meb Faber.

In the book, he really talks about this alternative, or I guess Faber would argue, a superior approach to dividend investing, which is shareholder yield, which is dividends, plus net share buybacks, plus net debt reduction. And Faber is the CIO and co-founder of Cambria Capital Management. They have some ETFs. One of those ETS is the Cambria foreign shareholder yield ETF, a mouthful, ticker, FYLD. It gives investors an instant diversification to non-U.S. stocks, which is great based on the conversations we've had on this show, but also dividends, shareholder yield. It comes with a yield right now of 4.3%. I'm interested. Rick, a question about an ETF? Is Matt allowed to do that? I think I broke the rules. Sorry, Rick. Why did you break the rules?

Sorry, my game is weak today. Rick is so broken by a gift suggestion, Matt. I just broke this show. I'm sorry. You're not going to turn that into a nice, eloquent discussion of diversification and the merits of spreading your bets or anything like that, Matt? Everything Dylan just said. That's what I'm going with. You have two very different choices here, Rick. An ETF and something that you didn't even dignify with a follow-up question or a comment with Nebius. Which one is going on your watch list this week?

You know, Matt has, he's dressed. better. I'm going to go with Matt. I am. Wow. You can't see it, but that's the beauty of it. You can't see it. A blue sweater. I guess it goes to my blue eyes. Thank you, Rick. Rick, thank you for all your work behind the scenes and for hopping into our radar stock talk with your comments, your questions, your occasional meh in 2024. And of course, Matt, Bill, appreciate you guys. Bring the stocks and bringing the analysis every single week you are on the show. Finally, to bring us home, listeners, Thank you for tuning in and indulging us all year. It was an awesome 2024 for Motleyful Money.

We won the best money and finance show for the year. We also found out that we have listeners in 140 countries. We get to do this because you are out there listening, and you have already given us so much when it comes to your time, your attention. If you still feel like giving, if you're still feeling generous, and you want to help us in our attempt to take over the globe in 2025 and reach all of the 190-plus countries out there, leave us a five-star review wherever you listen to our podcasts.

helps us reach more listeners. And if you've got ideas for the show, that's a great gift, too. Radio at full.com is where you can send those ideas. That's going to do it for this week's Motleyful Money Radio Show. I'm Dylan Lewis. Thank you for listening today and all year. We'll see you next time.