Motley Fool Money - What We’re Doing (or Not Doing) as the Market Drops

Episode Date: March 6, 2026

The conflict in Iran is on every investor’s mind as stocks seem to sink day after day. But panic is never the right answer and we discuss what we’re doing (or not doing) in today’s market. Then ...we deep dive into an unloved company, Disney. Travis Hoium, Emily Flippen, and Lou Whiteman discuss: - Iran, the market, and what we’re doing now - Broadcom earnings - Disney deep dive - Stocks on our radar Companies discussed: Stantech (STN), Honeywell (HON), Disney (DIS), Broadcom (AVGO), NVIDIA (NVDA). Host: Travis Hoium Guests: Emily Flippen, Lou Whiteman Engineer: Dan Boyd Disclosure: Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, “TMF”) do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement. We’re committed to transparency: All personal opinions in advertisements from Fools are their own. The product advertised in this episode was loaned to TMF and was returned after a test period or the product advertised in this episode was purchased by TMF. Advertiser has paid for the sponsorship of this episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 The market is falling again. So what should investors be thinking this week? Motley full money starts now. That's why they call it money. The best thing. Cool global headquarters. This is Motley Fool Money. I'm Travis Hoy. I'm joined today by Emily Flippin and Lou Whitman. And guys, we've got to talk about the topic of the week. We have this war conflict, whatever you want to call it in Iran that started last weekend, started impacting the markets on Monday. We're down significantly.
Starting point is 00:00:57 early on Friday as we're recording. Lou, I want to just get your general thoughts on what do you think as an investor in times like this? What's signal? What's noise? Because it seems like the market goes from, you know, panic to, you know, the market shoot up every 15, 20 minutes and it's hard to make sense of things. Yeah. So the first thing, I want to give everybody a free pass to do nothing Because, you know, I mean, it's always fun to be able to brag six months later. I caught the low and I bought something. And, you know, I mean, if you want to be opportunistic, that's fine. But I think it's good enough for your long-term wealth creation to just not panic sell.
Starting point is 00:01:40 And so, you know, I mean, the world is changing. Things could be fundamentally different after this than they were before. Good companies tend to survive these things. And, you know, so, yes, I think there's every real. reason in the world to watch this, to monitor, to think about it. I haven't seen much for a reason to say, oh, no, everything I thought two weeks ago isn't right. Even with today's sell-off, we're down 1.5% for the year in the market. So, I mean, I do think it's hard to take a long-term perspective in this moment, but to not take the second-by-second perspective, at least,
Starting point is 00:02:16 you can do a long way towards preserving what you've worked for. Emily, do you have a similar long-term views on kind of what to do on weeks like this? Yeah, and actually, I have some numbers to back it up, too. And in fact, there is, to lose point, a lot of data that supports the idea that patients wins out whenever there is geopolitical volatility like this. And panicking does not and will not help us. And history tells us that stocks actually do go up after these types of events, weirdly enough. And we can debate about why that is. But there's some good data here from the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Office, that the average return of the S&P 500 a week after geopolitical shock is actually positive. One month out, it's around 1.5%. And then when you zoom out to a
Starting point is 00:03:00 year, it's over 8%. And if you look at that the median return after a year, it's even better at over 10%. So it goes to show that panicking, generally after an event like this has already happened by either selling your stock, selling the market broadly, really isn't the best way to go about handling, managing risk or volatility in your portfolio. But I say that not to be blasé about the risk of what we're seeing. And certainly what we're seeing happening in Iran and particularly with the Strait of Hormuz, like that is very, very concerning and can be concerning for very specific industries and certain businesses. So I think the bigger question, whether there's two separate ones, I should say, there's a question of, oh my gosh, I'm the average American investor. I have a lot
Starting point is 00:03:41 of money in index funds. I have a lot of money diversified across the market, across many different industries and businesses, and I'm panicking because of this geopolitical event. What do I do? And of course, the answer, sit on your hands, be patient, do nothing. And then there's this question of, oh, no, I'm seeing the fact that, you know, 20% of global oil consumption is flowing through the straits. There's a potential for further conflict in the Middle East. And now I think some of my particular stocks or individual companies may be exposed. And that's when you have to go back in and start evaluating those particular businesses and exposure in those specific instances. And There are some cases that I think are worth re-evaluating in this scenario.
Starting point is 00:04:20 Lou, going to those specific points, one of the things that we talked about early in the week a little bit, and maybe we're seeing this as the week rolls on, is there specific risks related to the economy? Because Emily brought it up, the straight-of-homuz, there's a lot of oil flowing through that area. Oil is a big expense for a lot of people in the U.S. and around the world. if we're already at this kind of weak economic position, particularly in this K-shaped economy that you keep talking about, could this be the straw that breaks the camels back? Yeah, it really could be. And I do.
Starting point is 00:04:55 Again, you talk about you don't want to be too, like Emily said, you don't want to be too just dismissive or ignore. We already had headwinds. We already had some percentage of the U.S. consumers out there who are struggling. Adding a dollar or two at price of a gallon of gasoline could be the tipping point. It sends just so many consumers that we do see just a real pullback in spending that then spirals into a pullback in commercial spending and becomes a recession. Even here, it's good to recall that this is part of the cycle, even if it comes from an unexpected
Starting point is 00:05:31 event, we are probably due for one of these. And again, I think as a long-term investor, we try and wait it out, look for opportunities. So even there, I don't want to panic, but I do think that it's at least a reasonable worry to say, I mean, I don't think that the conflict that's going on can't be resolved in some way that we can, you know, this changes everything. But I do think we have to, you know, look at where the economy may go from here and at least prepare ourselves for, we've been talking about it forever. Maybe this is what does it.
Starting point is 00:06:10 Oh, the good thing about the United States in particular is that we're relatively energy independent. And so there is some insulation that happens here. And the good thing about the conflict in the Middle East that we're seeing is that there is going to be pressure from both OPEC and the UAE and other countries that depend upon this straight for other shipments to probably resolve this problem sooner rather than later. And it's not to say that we haven't seen massive infrastructure issues. That's going to take months, if not years, to fix. That is a very real headwind. But I do think that the world we're living in today is different than the world we used to live in, where a lot of the geopolitical events like these, when we saw a conflict, it was, for lack of a better word, something that was months and months in planning. And in this administration, we see an administration that is more willing than ever to try new things and then also walk them back quickly if and when they don't work out. So things are more volatile, more quickly shifting now than they ever have been. And I think that's part of the reason why we're heading into the weekend here. There's a lot of volatility. And that's stock market just today because people are trying to price in, how much can change just in the next
Starting point is 00:07:12 48 hours for the markets open up again on Monday? So there is a lot going on here that I think people are trying to price in. But the good news is that I actually think there's a lot of pressure to get this conflict resolved relatively quickly. America in particular is pretty well insulated here. In my opinion, the most actionable advice I have for anybody who's looking at their portfolio and is thinking, what do I do in this scenario in my mind? And this is just my opinion. I kind of think energy might be a trim here. It's the best performing sector in the S&B 500 so far this year. We're seeing oil, obviously, spike up as a result of this conflict. And a lot of people, I think, are doing a bit of panic buying. In my opinion, that's a good time to be a little bit
Starting point is 00:07:49 contrarian. If your exposure is too high and you're seeing all these assets appreciate and value, now might be the time to consider exposure. I would personally take a little bit off the table. And then if and when we see the price of oil or gas come back down, that might be the time to buy back in. Well, let's talk about some of those contrarian ideas, Lou. Where are you looking for opportunities in the market? And as you guys are talking, I'm thinking through the stocks that I own. And I focus a lot over the last year, a lot on balance sheets. You know, what companies are sitting on a whole bunch of cash that gives you the optionality that, hey, if there's a moment like this, maybe you just say, okay, fine, I'll buy back 20% of the shares outstanding. Or I'll acquire a company that's in a little bit worse financial position. You know, these dislocations. don't necessarily last forever. But if you were able to play offense in these moments, then that can be a good thing. But how are you thinking about maybe putting your money to work or like I'm only said, taking things off the table at a time like this?
Starting point is 00:08:48 Yeah, look, I mean, I'm a believer that there's always opportunities somewhere, and I don't think that changes now. But yeah, like how does that change? I think you're right. I think there's a lot of, I mean, but to me, it's more just recession thinking I go into now. Like what companies are being beaten down, but can weather this and still thrive long term? Just, I mean, very simple things. I don't think we're there yet, though.
Starting point is 00:09:13 Again, you know, I mean, we're basically flat for the year. Unfortunately, I think that for this to really become a buyer's market across the board, things have got to get a lot worse, which I don't know if I love that. To Emily's point, I agree 100% on oil. If I had energy exposure, I'd probably be looking to take some off there. And other things, too. I think across the board, just even, I own some defense stocks. I actually think the reaction that has been to the upside is probably overstated there.
Starting point is 00:09:47 I'm not actively looking to trim because it's kind of, you know, the long-term opportunity there. But I honestly think there's more opportunities to think about, do I want to hold this through a recession right now? then there is opportunities right now to say, I want to buy. Emily, how are you thinking about maybe if you're taking some of that energy money off the table, where are you looking for, looking for opportunities or what characteristics are you looking for? I just love indiscriminate selling. The panic selling that other people do, I just view it as great opportunistic chances for patient, long-term investors, like how everybody who's listening is.
Starting point is 00:10:23 Yeah, one of the things I do early on days like this is I'll look at the market and I'll go, okay, is everything red? Is everything down two, three, four percent? Or is it something specific? And this is not a SaaSpocalypse this week. This is just everything was down, at least a couple of trading days like today. Yes, exactly. You nailed it, Travis, which is to say, this is the reason why I say, I love to keep a watch list of companies. You know, if you don't have necessarily the assets to buy everything you want to buy in any given day, it's great on days like today. If you have a little bit of cash on the sidelines, if you're taking your terming, say, a little bit of energy today, you're thinking where can I invest? Having that,
Starting point is 00:10:57 watch list of businesses that are being indiscriminately sold off. And it's not necessarily saying, okay, well, I know software is down big is they're seeing massive AI-based disruption. Now is the time to buy-in because there is still this really big question mark. And obviously it's a case-by-case basis here. But those are companies that maybe there's a reason why they sold off. But on days like today where the indiscriminate selling and you see great companies that have maybe existed on your watch list for me, there's a lot of great consumer goods facing names, which I'm sure we'll talk about later in the show. These types of businesses are the ones where I's like, okay, I see a pullback here, maybe I'm waiting to get in. Today's a day.
Starting point is 00:11:29 When we come back, we are going to get a little update on earnings before doing a deep dive on a company Emily and I have been talking about for a while. That's Disney. Stay tuned for that. You're listening to Motley Cool Money. These days, I'm all about quality over quantity, especially in my closet. If it's not well-made and versatile, it's just not worth it. That's honestly what I love Quince. The fabrics feel elevated, the cuts are thoughtful, and the pricing actually makes sense. Quince makes high-quality wardrobe staples using premium fabrics like 100% European linen, silk and organic cotton poplin. They work directly with safe ethical factories and cut off the middlemen so you aren't paying
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Starting point is 00:12:41 Go to QINCE.com slash motley for free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince.com slash motley. Welcome back to Motley full money. We got a number of earnings reports this week and one that we wanted to talk about a little bit because there's so much involved is Broadcom. Broadcom talked about, you know, a hundred percent increase in their AI-related revenue. We don't typically think about them, Emily, as a company that is on par with Nvidia, but they really are. And if, you know, if you're not aware of them as an investor, now is the time to at least look at it.
Starting point is 00:13:17 So what did we learn this week? Oh, my gosh. Broadcom, first of all, one of the largest companies of the world. I think it's over $1.5 trillion in terms of market cap. And it's amazing to me. We give a lot of focus to Nvidia, but Broadcom. is kind of a sleeper agent in the world of AI. And their quarter was pretty stellar.
Starting point is 00:13:33 Actually, I think part of the reason why we, so both Nvidia and Broadcom, I will say, since they are serving the demand that exists due to capital expenditures of hyperscalers, these large tech giants, there's very little surprises, in my opinion, that come out of these quarters because we've already had quarters from their largest customers who said, hey, we're three-xing the amount of money. We're spending on CAPEX for data centers this year. So, of course, we're going to see great demand for Nvidia and Broadcom. and these other types of chip makers, chip players, I really should say.
Starting point is 00:14:02 So these companies, we already had an idea that their quarters were going to be good. And the reason why I think we saw a response that was positive for Broadcom's quarter, but a little bit more muted for NVIDias, was it because, oh, Broadcoms better than NVIDIA. It was because of some of the guidance around gross margin that I think we got previously for Broadcoms, some of their newer initiatives or which they thought management said, hey, maybe our gross margin will be a bit lower. Came out this quarter, leadership basically shut all that down,
Starting point is 00:14:25 said, gross margins are great. The market was like, okay, great, wasn't necessarily pricing that in. So the price movement there is less about our Broadcom and Nvidia competing head-to-head and more about the expectations baked into each of these businesses. But I do think it's interesting that as both these companies have grown, and you make this good point, Travis, that they're maybe learning to compete more with each other. Right now they aren't really competitors. They're complementary in terms of the services that they offer.
Starting point is 00:14:51 Nvidia is selling the GPUs. Broadcom can't really make. They're selling the switches and the chip infrastructure that helps make Invidia systems run. But as we get more into these custom chips, there's going to be a question mark of, okay, what is the software that ultimately ends up running them? And right now, Nvidia needs that software to justify its valuation. And I think there is still this question mark about who wins the software race. Lou, we are getting at the point where Broadcom, Nvidia, their numbers are phenomenal, but we're not seeing stocks jump 30, 40, 50 percent anymore. Is all this, we talk about
Starting point is 00:15:24 everything being priced in. Are we at the point finally with AI where, like Emily said, okay, we know what the CAPEX numbers are going to be. We know how much cash flow. All the big tech companies can put to work not only next year, but in the future. We kind of know what these companies are going to be, even if it is 100% growth rate. Yeah, you know, that's the thing. I'm old enough to remember when a quarter like Broadcoms was really celebrated. And the stock was up, but it wasn't. Both of these companies, Nvidia is actually the winner over the last six months, but both of them are basically flat over six months. And I do think, to your point, that might be exactly what's going on. Not that we've become just bored with these growth rates. I
Starting point is 00:16:01 think we still love these growth rates, but there are limits to how much more we can accelerate from here, right? I mean, there has to be at some point a limit. Over on the private credit side, just kind of these big hyperscalers going to the debt markets, looking for creative ways to to fund kind of continued growth. Questions about everything we talked about before, about the war and everything. We still have to support $4 trillion in IPOs this year to kind of keep this going two or so. Is there just, I think the market is concluding that while this is sustainable, and these are great businesses, the growth, year-over-year growth that we've seen, that maybe that is going to cool off. And since the market tries to be forward-looking,
Starting point is 00:16:51 since it tries to look for what from here. I do think that kind of the muted reactions across the board is just maybe conventional wisdom shipping to, all right, we've finally hit the point that the question is, can we sustain, not can we double from here? Yeah, do those growth rates continue to slow? Emily, as we were preparing for the show, one of the areas that I think is interesting
Starting point is 00:17:13 that's held up well in this SaaSpocalypse so far in 2026 is cyber security stocks. What is, what's happening there? This is an area that I cover. So give us an idea of what these companies are doing and why maybe investors are thinking about this differently than they are something like a Salesforce. Yeah, in the world of enterprise software, everyone forgets that cybersecurity technically counts as enterprise software too. But the reality is, to your point, that AI is being weaponized against enterprises, like right this very moment, it is happening. And they're trying to commit security breaches. At the same time, companies are trying to use AI to prevent those breaches. It's one of those things where it's kind of like, you need the fire
Starting point is 00:17:51 to fight with the fire. So it's hard to argue that despite the fact that it is a C-based software enterprise software company, that cybersecurity needs are going away in the world of AI. If anything, I think the market belief right now is that AI has made cybersecurity companies more relevant, even though I would argue that the quarter that we got out from Crowdstrike earlier this week, who was one of the largest cybersecurity companies, and one of the largest most highly regarded players in the market doesn't necessarily back that up. And the things, the that I'm watching closest with them is their CCP program. This is the program they launched to make customers whole after their outage over the last couple of years. I think it was about three years ago,
Starting point is 00:18:28 if I was taking two, three years ago. Was that the gift cards that they handed out? Effectively, what they allowed their customers to do was kind of add these add-ons and not charge them for them, right? So they're basically having a lot of customers that are underpaying the market rate for these cybersecurity offerings that they're going to over the course of the next year or so start to lapse. I think investors are assuming, and Crouchick is assuming that these customers are going to come in and start paying full price for these modules. And I actually don't necessarily know if we have data to back that up. As important as mission critical as cybersecurity is, this is the industry that I'm probably watching most closely because we need evidence of dollar base that retention rate for these customers that are turning through the ecosystem are actually going to renew at the higher rates needed to make the AI investments worth it. It's really funny, because I do wonder just generally if the greatest tool corporations
Starting point is 00:19:20 have right now is even if they have no desire to replace Crowdstrike or something to when they get their annual renewal, and it's a, I don't know, 3% increase, say, this is great, thanks. We have to talk to Open AI and then we'll get back to you. And if that sort of just neuters the price increase, even if they don't want to go. So, I mean, I think that that scares me more than you have people ripping out the systems. Bigger threat here is that cybersecurity has been notorious. As the threats change, the companies change. I'm not saying CrowdStrike can't be the most relevant provider in five years in a world of AI,
Starting point is 00:19:53 but I at least have to leave myself open to the fact that if history is a guide, as things evolve, so do the winners. So they have a lot of work to do. Not that they can't be a long-term winner, but I think I'd be surprised if in five years the incumbents are still the incumbents. When we come back, we're going to talk about Disney. You're listening to Motley Full Money. What does leadership really look like?
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Starting point is 00:20:41 It's supercalor, fragilistic, XP, Alidone, Even though the sound of it is something quite atrocious. Welcome back to Motley Full Money. In this section, we like to have a little fun. And I actually want to do a deep dive. I've been talking with Emily about doing a deep dive on Disney for a while. So I'm going to lead in with some questions for you guys. See how well you know Disney.
Starting point is 00:21:00 And then we'll talk about their businesses. Let's start with the studios business. This is Disney Animation, Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar. are of the top five movies in the past three years, so 15 movies total, how many of them were made by Disney, Emily? Of the top five movies in the last three years. Each of the past three years.
Starting point is 00:21:24 So 15 total options. I would say nine out of the 15. All right, Lou. I think, so this is right. I'm going with 10. I think because, yeah. So you think two thirds of the movies, the top movies,
Starting point is 00:21:41 come from Disney. Travis is like, this is not the direction I thought you got. No, it's high, but it's seven. So it's about half of the movies. But the thing that I think is interesting with that staten specifically is the movie business has become a blockbuster business. And Disney is, I think, the best at making blockbusters. Emily, do you think that's the case or is this the best studio in Hollywood or, you know,
Starting point is 00:22:05 a conglomeration of studios or is there a better player out there? No, I actually wholeheartedly disagree. And I actually think that their studio business is a desperate need of a leadership overhaul. I think it's a depleting asset, or should say depreciating asset, really, because of franchise fatigue. And Disney has been hitting customers, consumers, you know, even Disney enthusiasts over the head so often with reboots of the same franchise over and over again that it actually, in my opinion, doesn't know. necessarily matter if they are doing well, quote, at the box office, right? If the biggest hits, because they spend so much money to make them. They end up being not that big of a profit driver for
Starting point is 00:22:52 Disney as a whole. And I actually think the company, the more they kind of overuse the IP and the studio business, the worse it gets for Disney as a franchise as a whole, because what they're doing is they're devaluing the value of that IP. They're focusing on quality over quantity. I actually think that'd be better for their company? What IP do you think they're over-utilizing here? That's a great question. If I actually knew any Disney movies, I'd probably be to answer you. My concern is this is the narrative that I hear from the big Disney fans.
Starting point is 00:23:21 You are not talking to a big Disney fan. But I assume it's all of the same. I mean, think about every major blockbuster. Name off the big blockbusters from Disney. They're all reboots of the same franchises. I'm just going to guess here, and I don't know either because I'm not really a movie person, but I'm going to guess that. you know, the normals like it a lot more than the people who are loud about it. But I have no idea.
Starting point is 00:23:43 The thing I can't figure out here is like, yeah, so yes, they have leaned in on franchises, but some of the movies that I'm guessing that weren't Disney movies that were on the top or like, Despicable Me, I don't know, 30, or Dune, Dune, Seven or whatever, you know, so it's not like they only do that. Best is so subjective. Certainly Disney isn't the place to that you're even going to get like, I don't see why Oppenheimer or something was like, you know, know, a creative arts film, but you know, yeah, Disney isn't going to lean in there, but they have won the global box office nine in the last 10 years. Creativity really isn't the moneymaker. I think these franchises are great for other parts of the business. So I don't think this is a
Starting point is 00:24:26 weakness or an Achilles heel. I think they know what they're doing. And, you know, they may not win a lot of Critics' Choice Awards with some of this. But I think as a business, it is at least okay when you look at the sum of the parts? It's so interesting that you guys have generally negative views because I have little kids and Disney is the, like we will go see every single Disney movie, every, you know, Pixar movie. Disney Plus is the one that they have basically complete access to
Starting point is 00:24:55 because I can trust Disney as a studio to make movies that they're going to, they're going to enjoy and are also, you know, going to be appropriate for kids. So this is always one of those. I may know, know the first. fan that you're talking about, Emily, who is so negative on overusing Star Wars in particular. That's what it is. You know, I star something. But that group of fans is so intense. And then you get the people who actually go to movies who are kids with their families. And guess what? Zootopia 2 was
Starting point is 00:25:26 great. It was great. And actually, I think Zootopia, too, to your point, I outperformed virtually all of the Frozen franchises. So you're right. Maybe I am, maybe I'm being overly. pragmatic here by focusing on only a couple of the big franchises that they seem to reboot every other year. And to your point, Travis, too, also, I am not the target audience for a lot of these movies. I don't have kids and I am not going to go see Zootopia 2, although I have, to your point, heard great things. You shouts out, by the way, to one other franchise that I think was Disney, inside out. Go see both of those if you have another group. All right. Speaking of, where do these movies end up? Well, they end up at the parks and they end up
Starting point is 00:26:05 driving the parks. If you look at, we're actually going to go to Disney here in a month or two. And the amount of upgrades that they're making in Disney World and all the parks around the world is crazy right now. And it's all based on, most of it is based on this new newer IP. So in the last 10 to 20 years instead of the old IP. But since 2017, my question for you is, how much has Disney's experiences revenue grown? So almost a decade, they changed the way that they reported. So that was the further this went back. So 2017, how much bigger is that business today, Lou? I couldn't even tell you. Ten years. I'm just going to show my ignorance and say it's up like, I don't know, it's up big. It hasn't doubled. I'll say doubled just to move on. Gosh, I just lost my breath
Starting point is 00:26:58 there just realizing that 2017 was almost 10 years ago. Goodness gracious. I actually think that Lou's probably not far off. The parks is my favorite part of Disney's business. And I think they're probably close to, probably close to a double, maybe a bit below that. Let's say 80% growth. Yeah, you guys are right. 86%. My other fund stat is the cruise business doesn't get a lot of attention from investors because it's just, it's a volatile business if you look at the cruise lines. But Disney has seven cruise ships and is actually launching another one next week. And that is an area of huge investment for them. That's one of the bigger drivers of the parks business. But Emily, when you look at Disney's business overall, how much does the parks business play into your thesis on the company?
Starting point is 00:27:44 It's virtually everything to me. And not to say that I think that Disney could just get rid of everything else and only be parks. I'd be happy with that. I really do love the other aspects of Disney's business too. And I do think the IP that they're building with their studio business and streaming business is critically important to maintaining the demand for the parks. So it all works together in one big ecosystem. But the parks, in my opinion, it's the bread and butter. I love the fact that Disney's new CEO is somebody who was formerly the head of parks, which is, I guess, the name is that. That didn't go well last time, though. Okay. I have a bone to pick actually about this with Chaypec, but we can get to that. I know we're going to, I presume we're going to ask us about the
Starting point is 00:28:22 streaming business and I'll give my spiel then. But I do think that having somebody who understands the core value of the parks is absolutely critical. Because if you overinvest into less profitable areas, then the reason why people are buying Disney shares starts to lose focus. And that's exactly what happened over the course of the whole Disney Plus. I think that was like the 2019-ish era when Cheapac came into power. And I think any money that the business chooses to reinvest into the parks, and I recognize that a lot of the investments they're having here are not necessarily going to just content build up, but a big good portion is, but a lot of it is maintenance of infrastructure. I mean, these are expensive large beasts to run and manage. But I think it's money well spent here.
Starting point is 00:29:03 I mean, this generates the lion's share of Disney's operating income. It's more than 70% of total operating income from Disney just comes from the parks. The one red flag that exists for me, well, actually, I should say it's two. One is, I hate the fact that they don't break out the cruise revenue as a different segment within parks because cruise ships are so expensive, hundreds of millions of dollars, and I'm sure they're very profitable. But I don't know what the margin looks like. I think they don't do it because they're so profitable, everything that I've seen about the pricing of their, they have such pricing power in that market specifically that they're charging 50% more than other cruise lines. And so I think they want to hide that. I think that would be the reason. I hope that's the reason.
Starting point is 00:29:43 I wish I knew. Look, let's be honest here, though. The whole like parent criticism is that they, you know, lock you inside the park and then charge whatever you want for food, water, stuff like that. Imagine sending you out into sea. And what, you know, like the, the price. pricing power they have done. So, of course, it is. Well, people do it voluntarily. Yeah, I know, I know. Like, everything Emily said is correct. So I don't know what I can say more to that other than just kind of see from our discussion above. This is what justifies the movie theaters. I mean, the movie franchises, too, obviously. I mean, look, Parks is a great business. And it's a better business for them for them than it is for anyone. Are they better at it? Yeah, I think they're
Starting point is 00:30:24 pretty good at execution and they think about it. But how much of it is just all of that IP that, you know, I mean, I don't think you want billions and billions of loss leaders feeding in. But to me, this is what justifies everything else going on. Everything just, you know, those parks are just where everything flows to that and it ends up, it's a big pile of money. Well, it seems like this is also the one that has the biggest moat. You know, you can't just, Netflix can't just go out and build a whole bunch of parks to compete with Disney. All right, let's talk about that streaming business that Emily mentioned earlier. My question for you is, how many subs does Disney Plus and Hulu have, as of at least the last time they reported this?
Starting point is 00:31:04 And I'm just combining those two because those are kind of the biggest thing. They had ESPN Plus. They're not, they split off that app, but that's a little bit wonky. So we'll just go with Hulu and Disney Plus streaming. If you add those two together, what do you get to, Emily? Oh, I was really hoping to go to Lou first so I could have something to gauge my answer off. because I actually have no idea and it's embarrassing. I don't. I'm not to guesstimate 50 million. All right. I'm going much higher, but now Emily scared me because, again, I'm afraid I'll go 150. $195.7 million subscribers. Disney Plus alone is $131.6 million. To put that into a little bit of context, the last time that Netflix reported, they don't report their total numbers now, but they've said that
Starting point is 00:31:52 they're over 300 million. So they're not quite the same, but you're kind of getting into that territory. Emily, I'm going to lean on you here first again. How do you think about the streaming business? Because this is a business that, you know, you mentioned Chepec. When he came in, that was the, basically the pandemic started. Iger said, I'm out of here. Jaypec saw the growth going on at Disney Plus and was like, I'm going to lean into that. Didn't necessarily work out super well. When Iger came back, he got the streaming business back to profitability. But as an investor, how do you think about that business? Is it just a tack-on? Is it a profit driver? Where are we going with this in the future? Yeah, you can tell how little I care about the streaming business based
Starting point is 00:32:34 off my answer there. Great for Disney Plus. Again, clearly not the target audience here, although I do subscribe to Hulu, so maybe I should have factored that into my equation here. I will say, I rewind back to when Disney Plus was initially launched. And what happened at the time was, Bob Eiger set up the expectations for what Disney Plus could be in terms of Disney getting into the streaming service. And I was being my classic self, very skeptical at the time, because we saw the decades, the many, many years of Netflix and other big streamers who burned cash trying to make the content game work. And yes, of course, Disney was sitting on a bunch of very valuable IP, but we know how expensive it is to make valuable content. And there was a lot of price compression for streaming at the time as well. and Disney Plus was being launched and sold well below the price of the need to be to be profitable,
Starting point is 00:33:23 of course. Now, Iger. They were practically giving it away in those days. They were practically giving it away for free. Exactly. Iger did all this. Let's be very clear about this. Iger set up the strategy.
Starting point is 00:33:32 And then he left and he said, I'm going to put Bob Cheapeck in charge. Chepec, the guy who ran parks, the guy who has all the experience with the biggest profit driver at the company, but very little experience with, say, streaming and content management. And then, of course, when Disney Plus proceeded to destroy Disney's financial performance over the next couple of years, they struggle to make that business profitable. Iger then comes in and says, wow, Chepec did a terrible job. Executing my plan that I set out, I'm going to come in and fix it. So I have a little bit of a bone to pick.
Starting point is 00:34:05 I think that Cheapac was the right person to lead Disney as a company, but not the right person to be launching Disney Plus, to be using that as a corporate strategy. Now, since then, obviously, Disney has gotten its act together, raised prices on Disney Plus, manage its content library. I think a lot of this, by the way, has come from Hulu and price increases with Hulu and benefits from ESPN, of course, massively underreachated properties. They're bundling these that are now, too. They didn't own all of Hulu when Chaepec took over.
Starting point is 00:34:33 Yes. So there's advantages that they have owning that. Exactly. But I think all of that is the reason why the streaming service now is more profitable. And this now is, it's not quite making up, if I'm not mistaken, for the, the legacy networks business in terms of total profits being driven to the company, but it's well on its way to making up for it. And in my opinion, that's all the streaming business needs to do for Disney. All it needs to do is make up for that nominal portion of sales that was being generated
Starting point is 00:34:57 by the network's business, make up for that capital there, and they continue to build the IP so that people want to go to the parks. That's all I need. Yeah, spot on. Spot on. Lou, I'm going to go to you first with this legacy question. Do you care? about the legacy business, ABC, ESPN is part of this. They've got FX. If you have cable, you're paying a lot of money to Disney. Is that a business that you value at all when you're looking at their company? There is value, but it is the least important thing. I mean, there's some IP here too. So, you know, you do have some of that. I think that if any part of this business goes, it's this one. In fact, if you want to take, look, there are so many of these, like kind of
Starting point is 00:35:42 orphan businesses out there. I don't see Disney buying and adding scale here. It's not important enough, but it seems like you just spin this out. Maybe Disney holds on to 5, 10% of a merged networks business with the Comcast's network business, has a sweetheart licensing deal. But yeah, this is the afterthought of the company. Emily, you agree? Yeah, if you thought I didn't know enough about, say, the studio portion of Disney's business, you're going to be appalled by how little I care about the networks part of Disney's business. In fact, I actually think the faster they do spend it off, the better and now does seem, given the benefits that we've seen from the Netflix, the attempted now Netflix deal with Warner Brothers and the spinoff of that studio business from the kind of
Starting point is 00:36:26 legacy media business and the different content assets there, now it might be the good time for Disney to be thinking about, okay, we see profitability picking up and streaming. Now is the chance for us to take this legacy network's business and find a buyer for it. Because I do think that the faster they get rid of it, the easier it is for this new management team, which by the way, we do have a new management team here to focus on what's most critically important for the company. But I recognize that it's much easier for me to sit here on a podcast and say this and much harder to turn this, you know, multi-hundred billion dollar business around at the drop of the hat.
Starting point is 00:36:59 When we come back, we're going to get to the stocks on our radar. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Robin Hood and Little John walking through the forest, laughing back and forth at what the other has to say. I'm this and this and night and having such a good time. Oudololly, hootlolly, golly, what a day. Never ever thinking there was danger in the water, they were drinking. The old adage goes, it isn't what you say, it's how you say it,
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Starting point is 00:38:36 All personal finance content follows the Motley Fool's editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers. Advertisements are sponsored content provided for informational purposes only. To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes. We'd like to end the show with stocks on our radar. Emily, what do you got this week? Stock on my radar this week is a company called Stantec. The ticker is STN. This is a Canadian design-focused engineering consultant. Don't let your eyes glaze over because I promise you this company is a lot more exciting than it seems. They have a diversified mix of clients across infrastructure, environmental services, water, buildings, and energy, lots of mission critical projects.
Starting point is 00:39:10 I really like this management team that's growing double digits on their top line will also expand their bottom line through a combination of both organic growth and acquisitive growth and they have a track record that spans decades. I think it's trading at very reasonable valuations today as well. One of those babies with the bathwater that's been sold off with the broader stock market. Dan, what do you think about Stan Tech? Did you all know they have their own 66-story skyscraper in Edmonton called StanTech Tower? That's pretty cool. That seems now maybe a little excessive, Dan. I hope all the locals call it the Stan, right? I hope they designed it themselves. All right, Lou, what's on your radar this week?
Starting point is 00:39:49 Dan, I'm doubling down. I'm looking at Honeywell, ticker H-O-N, but I'll be honest. I'm thinking about GE. GE was an underperformer for years until it split. Now, two of those stubs are up 100% and 500% cents. Honeywell is doing a similar breakup. I think it could do just as well. This week we got details about the soon-to-be independent Honeywell Aerospace. Business split pretty evenly between commercial and defense with a huge spare parts business.
Starting point is 00:40:14 That's great for margins, generating $3 billion plus. less than free cash flow. I'll note they're going to take on a lot of the parents' debt, so they do need to manage that. But post-split, I think Honeywell Aerospace could be a top choice to take advantage to the surge in demand. I'm very intrigued. Dan, does Honeywell have you intrigued? Honeywell is such an innocuous name, and it's like they're a, you know, giant company with a ton of diversified business, do, you know, their fingers are in a lot of different pies, gang. But then you hear Honeywell, and you're like, oh, that sounds nice.
Starting point is 00:40:47 You see, Dan, you're making my point, though. Imagine how simple it's going to be once its three companies and we'll know exactly what they do. I do like that. All right, Dan, which one's going on your watch list this week? You know, I like simplicity, Travis. So I, you know, hopefully Honeywell does get a little more simple with how they name things. So let's go Honeywell. Why not? It's worked out for GE. For Emily Flippin, Lou Whiteman. I'm Travis William. That's it for us, folks. We'll see you here next time.

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