Move The Line - 2020 NFL Award Futures Bets

Episode Date: June 25, 2020

In the latest episode of Move The Line, Ryan and Connor are joined by one of Twitter's favorite gambling degenerates, @JoeyKnish22. The guys discuss ways to leverage the great unknowns that are likely to come in the 2020 season before digging into the award futures market. This episode was also recorded on Twitch (4for4for4) and on YouTube as well.Topics Discussed:Opening (0:50)MVP (9:56)DPOY (26:44)OROY (32:50)DROY (46:12)Coach of the Year (58:50)Misc. Bets (64:40)Subscribe to 4for4Hosts: Ryan Noonan, Connor AllenGuest: Joey KnishFollow UsTwitter - https://www.twitter.com/4for4footballFacebook - https://www.facebook.com/4for4footballYouTube - https://www.youtube.com/4for4footballTwitch - https//www.twitch.com/4for4for4Email: [e-mail]

All right, welcome to Move the Line. This one's going to be a little bit different. I'm Ryan Noonan. Joining me as always, Connor Allen, 4 for 4. We are doing a podcast slash live stream this week. I'm giving you this as the audio version. If you were downloading, if not, you could find us on our 4 for 4's Twitch stream and YouTube channel as well. Is that right, Connor? We did it on YouTube? Yep, yep, yep. It'll be uploaded to YouTube

as soon as you're listening to this probably. Awesome. So our guest this week is Joey Knish. You can find him on Twitter, JoeyKnish22. Very highly entertaining, gambling, Twitter degenerate with lots of good takes. We had a good time with this one. Hope you enjoy it. Don't forget to find us on Twitter at MoveTheLineNFL. You can find Connor there at ConnorAllenNFL.

I'm there at Ryan Noonan. And I hope you enjoy this one. Yeah, dude. Kanish, it's good to finally get you on the show, man. I know we talked about it a little bit like last year and stuff, but yeah. No better place I'd rather be than chopping up player futures here with you mugs here on auesday or whether it was a wednesday night here going into it uh to get a little nfl i haven't honestly i've been it's been

uh a minute since i've chopped up the nfl like we had that lag and then the last you don't know what's happening and then like is there going to be a season and so now it's fine even though um i don't know i felt a little bit sketchy about college football but i think one way or another the nfl will get this this done and get this in. No greedier league than the National Football League. They will find a way to squeeze 17 weeks out of this bad boy one way or another. I 100% agree. Yeah.

If we need to have football in April, those owners will get their money for sure. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, that's kind of where I'm at with it. I don't know. I mean, it's, like, scary, but we were just talking about this before the episode. Like, I mean, it's not going away. Like, I think that, you know, like, these, like,

random players are going to get it throughout the season, and it's just going to be a total, total just, like, clusterfuck in terms of, like, figuring out what to do. It's going gonna be the craziest information it's gonna be like the injury weekly injury market on which the nfl has kind of um like regimented where you know practice reports and stuff like that where everyone's getting the same info at the same time um you could see guys pop up like anytime during the week if the info leaks of who's got corona or like they can show up on the injury report as illness

or is someone just, you know, is a beat reporter automatic or like if they aren't in the buildings, can you assume that they have it? Like if they're going to try and play this, it's just going to be an absolute, especially, you know, if you're talking about like players that like, you know, if a quarterback, you could be talking about a line that's three, four, six points off. If you're able to be on top of that info, that's going to be just a whirlwind. And as we were talking right before we got on, with the game of years and regular season wins and stuff, I've been a lot lighter than normal just because you don't know how the shit's going to play out. What if the expected win total, if your quarterback's going to play out. What if, you know, the expected win total,

if your quarterback's going to miss two, three, four weeks because he got COVID, is a lot different than just, you know, like if you're factoring that in beforehand. So, yeah, it's going to be an absolute, like, nutshell of how this is going to be handled and the week-to-week, like, COVID report stuff. Oh, totally. Yeah, I mean, that's what we were just literally just just talking about i have no idea how it's going to go and i think it's gonna be one of the craziest years for sure like that we've seen ever and might be the craziest year ever just with everything that you talked about so i don't know and i was i was thinking

that like maybe that almost gives you an advantage to kind of bet things like as late as possible um like to kind of make sure that your guy doesn't get announced with like COVID or like a quarterback doesn't get announced with COVID like the day before a game. But then at the same time, like, you know, everyone wants to bet on things early because you get the best value then and you're trying to beat the market. So, I mean, like our wise guys are going to get totally screwed this year because of that, or is just everyone going to kind of get screwed? I don't know.

Is there like a, is there a better way to play it or is this going to be kind of see how it goes i don't i don't know i'm kind of torn i mean i think you've seen like over the the course of what would be you know the last five people bet earlier and earlier in the week on nfl um and they're not you know it used to be you know back in the the what i'll call back in the day you know people either serious moves would come uh and now pretty much the market is shaped by by at the latest saturday you know i don't know anybody um unless you're what would it be like the the biggest uh the guy you know the end guy that's betting you know 100k or more on the side that's waiting until sunday uh but for the most part all the nfl stuff happens

you know monday tuesday and then tinkled it a little bit, you know, Thursday, Friday. So it could be, I don't know. I think you're still, you're just going to have to assume, you know, going into a normal game week that, that every single set and then react to the information and then whoever can react to it fast enough is going to get the edge. So if you're, you know, you're a grinder, you're, you know, with a group of guys or you're on top of it,

you might be able to snipe a good chunk, especially – and maybe books handle it different. I don't know how – if we're really getting into the season, maybe instead of the typical limits that you see on an NFL game on Monday and Tuesday are now – they go 250 or 500 because they're afraid of getting, you know, absolutely hammered where, you know, usually you could get, you know, 10 K down on a, or 25 K down, you know, midweek on an NFL game. Maybe that's not the same if we're going to be playing in this environment. So we'll see. It's interesting. I'm kind of, I'm kind of,

I just hope there is some form of sea. I'm kind of excited to see in a way how it plays out. I just hope we don't have a scenario where you can't have football. But as we said, I think the NFL is going to happen. It would have to be a worst-case scenario for them not to play some form of season. Absolutely. Chaos is a ladder, right? So we're always hunting edges.

It's what we do no matter no matter what you're listening to this show for like if you're you know maybe you're a fantasy guy you're coming in to learn from the big dogs like uh knish here like we're always looking for edges so we're always looking for look ahead lines or you know getting on the line before it moves we want to get closing line value maybe this year it's like it's waiting until that very end just before it could be completely reversed this year. You're waiting for a Friday maybe. Maybe they do the last swabs of the locker room on Friday

and you don't find out until Schefter bombs at 2 in the morning that Mahomes is sitting the next couple weeks out. So it's going to be wild here. I usually bet upwards of 100 or more college football game of the years before the season. I'll bet some NFL, like, first month. This is just the – I just haven't been able – I mean, because you don't know. And same thing of, like, being able to quantify home field advantage. Like, am I betting, you know, Clemson at South Carolina?

Is there anybody going to be there? You know, am I normally giving? If it's a night game in the SEC, which is usually a massive HFA of getting upwards of four, five, six points, if there's nobody in the stands, does that still matter? So you've got all of these kind of qualitative factors that are going to be just going to be like a week-to-week type thing where you're in this where you just don't know right now. So, I mean, you can make educated guesses and stuff, but it's definitely the most uncertainty we've had kind of in our lifetime going into any kind of sporting NFL football season.

Yeah. I would think looking ahead to how we're doing and we're speculating and spinning, I would think this would create probably a really good market in the props market too. Weekly props, right? Really like Connor, your wheelhouse, because that seems to be the last market to react.

They go up late and they are sometimes pretty soft. So all of a sudden, if you have someone that's impacted on the offensive side of the ball, that all of a sudden their snaps are going to be jumping up or vice versa, someone's going to be out because of something like this, then there could be a massive opportunity in the betting market there too. I mean, to be honest too, really, guys like DraftKings and big books,

they're going to react very quickly because they have a lot of guys on staff. Sure. But small credit books and PPHs who have just some bozos in Costa Rica running it, they're going to get just absolutely demolished. Like unless they're on top of their game, which most of the time they're not, they're always one of the slowest like to move. So, I mean, at least I think that like they're just going to be in for a rough year for

those guys who are paying attention, but we'll, we'll see. I mean, that's probably where I'll turn some of my attention, but you know, can't really, can't really, you know really tweet about that or write about that too much. Well, for the sake of the show, let's jump into it a little bit. Welcome to Move the Line presented by 444.com. We're also going live here on the 444 Twitch stream as well, something that Connor's jump started here for us. Happy to talk, shop here with one of the gambling Twitters, the Gens,

one of the sharpest guys in the business, Joey Knish. So, again, off the top, welcome to Showman. Hey, man. Great to be here, finally be here before getting into it with a little bit. Hopefully we can have a season and then get into it on a regular basis, dropping stuff up. But, hey, let's hit some of the futures, see if we can find a little bit of value still out there. For sure. We're going to lean on you

for your expertise. This is something that you've probably dug into a little bit more than we have, getting into some of the player future stuff. We'll start with the top. Obviously, the bell of the ball is always the MVP. We've seen that over the last decade plus, this is pretty much a quarterback award. I think LT maybe was the last. I'm trying to think. No, Peterson back in 2012. Peterson, yeah. So it's a quarterback award typically. And I feel like if we could have a year like we had last year for McCaffrey and he really isn't in the picture at the end of the day. This is really going to be a quarterback award here, especially as football is just evolving more and more as a pass-heavy game.

So obviously at the top of the board, we're going to talk about multiple shops here. Obviously, depending on where you are, what you have access to, you could be limited, but if you have the ability to take advantage of any of these books or credit stuff that you'll hear these guys talk a little bit more of. Obviously, you want to shop and get the best of the numbers. So MVP, top three are quarterbacks, obviously, Mahomes, Lamar, and Russ. Any value at the top, Joey, on obviously these pretty short numbers, but probably the favorites for a reason?

Yeah, I mean, the draw, I'm not typically a player futures guy that likes to lay heavy chalk or any of that. I typically don't amend that. But, man, it is strong this year when you look at the, you know, you've got two quarterbacks who are just, you know, basically the first glimmer of their prime, one MVP for the last two years. And they're on what you could argue is the two best teams in football again. So it's hard to, you know to make a great case for fading that. So I'm not going to invest in any

short price on MVP on Mahomes or LJ, but this is one where my overall portfolio, especially with some of the uncertainty we already touched on, will probably be a little lighter. I think I'll touch on a couple of guys here. I've already taken a couple of sprinkles, but there'll be a couple of guys that are on the look. But my overall risk is definitely going to be much lighter than previous years. But the thing you said off the top, and this is the same thing I say in college football with the Heisman, waste of money on anything but a quarterback.

Like there is no reason. I think even I'm just going down the board, like the best price you see or what I'd be the first price you see on a non-quarterback is 50 to 1, and I would say that's not even Saquon and McCaffrey at 50 to 1. Hey, you look at what type of season would these guys have to have to even get in the conversation. If McCaffrey didn't do it for you last year, you're talking about the type of season that's probably, you know,

1%, 2%, 3% probability to occur, which doesn't even guarantee you the award. So, yeah, quarterback only. But I'm going to – the chalk is strong, but I was going to be looking a little bit farther down the list to take a couple of sprinkles here with a couple of guys that might be on some up and coming teams rather than, you know, take a strong position on the top of the board. Yeah, I agree. Connor, there's no real value here, right? I mean, obviously they are the favorites for a reason, but as far as something that you're going to actually spend your money on here to get any bang for your buck we're not really touching these guys right yeah no i'm pretty much out on that and echo a lot of what joey said

there um and i think that kind of going through like the basic criteria of like what makes an mvp like you said it should be a quarterback but i think it's also important to note like they should be on a winning team um so that also kind of helps eliminate, I would say, at least a decent chunk of the field there. And when you get towards, like, the long shots there, I mean, you can project a team to, like, take a step forward, but you need to be projecting them to take that step forward. If you're just projecting them to be a quarterback who's going to compile stats or, you know, score a lot of fantasy points, like, that's just the total wrong way to think about it. This needs to be a quarterback on a good team who's also playing at the top of his game.

So, I mean, for the top here, like, you know, I'm not in on guys like Mahomes. I'm not in on Lamar Jackson. I'm also, I looked at Russell Wilson. I thought that that price was a little bit high here. I mean, on draft games, we're looking at him at 8-1. I mean, the coaching staff just doesn't seem to want to let the reins off of Wilson there to really for him to kind of put up the stats that I think are necessary to win the MVP. I mean, there's always potential if the Seahawks just absolutely have a great season

and Wilson, you know, pioneers that and turns in like, you know, above average year. But at the same time, I just don't think that at 8-1 that's something I'm going to bank on here because I just think that there's better value later. And the chances of this coaching staff letting that happen, I would say, is slim to none. We've seen them consistently just not let Russ cook. It just doesn't happen. So for me, I took a little bit of action on Dak at 16-1. I really like the weapons. I know it's a little bit shorter than most people would like, but

I think at 16-1 it was okay and worth playing because the weapons are even better and I think that they go away from that run-heavy approach we saw under Jason Garrett. So I think that if they're passing a little bit more, I think Dak's ceiling is really, really high. The Cowboys project to be a good team. I think win total

is like 9, 9.5 in most spots. So you're projecting a playoff team with a quarterback who should be throwing more with uh really good weapons I mean I think that at 16 to one where I got it at is solid and then 14 to one is probably the lowest I'll consider playing it again nothing big just something to kind of put in the market here and have a little bit of money on on a player like Dak Prescott where I'm pretty convinced that he's going to have a good season yeah I know there were some Dak 20s floating around uh early when it first got out uh yeah I was waiting for a Carson Wentz take here from you Connor I thought that that would be you're uh you're always beating the drum for I know um and I think you're gonna go back to that

well again this year but uh I think this is where kind of the sweet spot is. Do you agree with that, Joey, when you get down the board into, you know, Dak Brady, Wentz, Breeze, when you start to get to that maybe second-tier group where there might be some value? Yeah, and one number one, I agree. If I'm going to go the top of the board, it would be Dak. As you said, there were some 20-1s. Those are pretty much all gone.

But the Cowboys' win total has taken the sharp money and over. of the board it would be Dak. As you said, there were some 20-1s. Those are pretty much all gone. But the Cowboys' win total has taken the Sharp money over. I know a decent amount of guys, a couple Sharp guys that really like that one. So that's a team that's going to be in that new coaching staff that should be more pass-friendly in the 9-12 win range. So he's pretty set up there for a nice season, and that would be the top of the board play. A couple guys in the mid-tier that I sprinkled. One was a popular play, and that number's come down a lot, was Kyler Murray.

There were some 40-1s, some 50-1s available. When they traded for Hopkins, that number crashed at most places, but I was able to sprinkle a little bit of 50-1. If you can find, I'm seeing 25 at DraftKings. I'm okay with that. it's still a smaller play it's really going to be would be dependent on him putting up just just absurd numbers i know the issue being that the cardinals um do they project as anything more than you know a middle tier you know six to nine win team probably not um so i think that's the issue but he would have to he'd be the guy that if there's going to be –

you know, the narrative would be just he absolutely blows the stats out of the water in that system. A couple of younger receivers going into their second year that added Hopkins, they made improvements on the offensive line. He's the guy that could just put up the type of numbers in the cliff offense that just might, you know, absolutely blow the league out of the water, even if they only win like a 9-7, that he could be in contention. The other one, I can't fucking believe I'm going to go here, but it's one of those,

if I didn't grow up in Detroit and wasn't a Lions fan, I'd feel a lot better about it. I knew it. It's a Stafford 50-1 or better. The truth, and this was super, this was not acknowledged last year because the Lions did not win a lot of football games, and then he got hurt and had the back injury. And so it wasn't, he was playing probably the best stretch of football outside of maybe his prime Calvin Johnson years.

But Stafford, with the new O.C., was playing a really good stretch of football outside of maybe his prime Calvin Johnson years. But Stafford, with the new O.C., was playing a really good stretch of football before he had the back injury. And it wasn't really producing wins on the field. The defense was a bottom three unit last year. But they've made a couple of additional, you know, adds. I think the Swift added nice elements to the offense. The team overall should be better i again do i love patricia no i i think they've made an upgrade at dc uh grabbing the the coordinator from the eagles so i think the team overall will be better

um and he's that middle tier of guy that if I'm looking at anything over 50-1, it would be either in a weak division, they've got a chance to maybe win 8-10 games, he was playing well, he's not in the age bracket of some guy. I see Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, guys that are really in the twilight. They've got a reasonable set of weapons around them um if i'm betting any current price on the board it would be a safford 50 to one or better strong you can get a 66 and william hill there you go and that's what yeah no that's that's i i i think that's you know as far as current value that that would be my favorite of the bunch um one that

i just throw out real quick and this is uh this is a what we talked about you know you got to be on top of the information with covid tasem hill numbers are in like the the 250 at on at above range you see anything happen with drew breeze um along the lines of an injury um especially because he – I thought his play level really fell off for parts of last year, especially towards the end. But any injury with Brees immediately maxed out all the Hill numbers. He can put up what I would say is similar production this year.

They've got one of the best rosters in football. That's one of those you just store it in the bay. If you ever see any type of news report um drew breeze potential injury that's long term uh hill would be a you know then go around and start maxing it everywhere you can at those that type of number no james love there oh i i i don't i and i know that some people were like oh you can go to the same i i don't know. And I know that some people were like, oh, you can go to the – I don't have any faith in Jameis Winston. And that's – like, he went to – I'm a big Bruce Arians guy. I thought he was in the type of off.

I know they didn't have great whole line protection, but was in the type of off. I know some of the advanced stats guys thought he didn't have the type of, you know, bad year that the public thought he had. When you turn the ball over that much, I mean, yeah, yeah. It's hard to win football games regardless. So that's not if they went that route, Breeze got hurt. But I think Hill would have the job, even if they brought in Jameis in a Breeze injury.

I still think Hill would be QB one in that scenario. I know I know you brought up murray too and so he's at like you got him at 40 right so we're at 25 like he's down to 25 to 1 um in most spots is what i'm seeing so like are you still on him there or is that too much to this point now he has like the eighth highest odds of winning the the mvp it's it's probably past the point of a smart buy based on a lot of i'm confident in his production um in terms of what's the the win expectation for the cardinal is going to be the concern i don't you you really have to get to nine wins in playoff contention to be in the mvp consideration um and can the the cardinals you know in a really tough division um getting that range um it would be a questionable for me i think 25 is probably the the final point where you know if you're building a portfolio of guys at that number and above,

then I don't mind a small sprinkle, but that wouldn't be a play that I'm looking to absolutely pound or anything at 25-1. It would be splitting up a unit between guys in the 25-75 range. For sure. You get this tipping point of it's got to be a quarterback, and it's got to be on a winning team. So the list gets whittled down for you really, really quickly. Are you guys Browns believers here? I've seen some people I know, some sharper people,

that are bullish on the Browns this year. I had a Mayfield ticket last year that obviously went horribly. Any thought to a Mayfield 33-1? Again, William Hill seems to be very generous there's a 50 to 1 there uh 33 isn't quite as appealing but i do i am a little bullish on them i like that defense um the problem there is that division is solid like i think the i don't think the bangles are good but i think the bangles are better pittsburgh's better with ben back and while there should be some regression for baltimore their

schedule is just so easy again uh so it's a really really tough division for them they'd have to really cement like a 10 and 6 playoff spots and just baker just balls out of his ass uh what about you connor yeah well i think i think they're gonna be better but i think a lot of it's gonna be focused on the run like with stefanski coming over to the brown, but I think a lot of it's going to be focused on the run, like with Stefanski coming over to the Browns. I think a lot of it's going to be a lot of Chubb, a lot of Kamara. And I think that Mayfield's going to be really efficient, but I'm not really expecting him to kind of like be, you know, really just like the focal point all the time.

I think that they're going to kind of go with like a run heavy, a lot of play action. So for me, I would consider taking a shot at 50-1, 33-1. I'm probably out just because I don't expect them to kind of go with a pass-heavier approach. So like you were saying, Kyler Murray at 40-1 odds before, I'd probably prefer in that same range. And at this point, I'm probably out on Murray as well. So yeah, I don't know. I'm not super interested in Mayfield. But I do think that the Browns are going to be better.

But like Noonan said, it's a tough division, and it's not going to be easy for them to win a lot of games, even if they're playing, you know, close chin to chin with these other teams in the division. Yeah. Even at 50 to one, I'd rather, rather bet on Gary Woodland this weekend. The only other guy that I had kind of in the, the quota for, for keeping an eye on was Jared Stidham. If you're a believer in the Patriots, I'm still a believer in the Patriots being a good team,

a team that can win the AFCs. And so, again, if you're putting a quarterback on a nine or ten win team um and obviously a guy that the organization has faith in they've shown they can win uh on the past with the matt castles and you know winning some games with um brian hoyer and you know and then the like so i'm thinking i haven't fired on this yet i was hoping to see some uh camp performances out of them and some pre-season action before um i went in uh but that's one i would say that is on my radar love it absolutely yeah well well noonan's like a diehard Patriots fan, so I'm sure that he's just eating that shit up. But, I mean, yeah, I mean, it makes sense.

Well, hold on. You guys can't have it both ways. Like, last year it was Brady's done, Brady's washed, Brady's trash, you know, hang him up. It was a great, you know, it was a great run, et cetera. And now you're bringing him back with basically the same weapons and an incredible defense. They went out and drafted them back with basically the same weapons and an incredible defense.

They went out and drafted and loaded up on the defense again. Like the defense is going to be really good. So like you can't have it both ways. So if Brady is trash, that means the cinema doesn't have much to beat out there. So I like what Joey said there. I think you got a lot of reasons why they very much could, you know,

get to nine to 10 wins again and be good enough to be in the playoffs. I mean, I don't know that anyone else in that division, they're all, they're all improving, maybe not the Jets, but enough to overtake the Patriots in that defense. I'm not sure yet. I'm not, I'm not necessarily buying the bills. I agree with that. Yep.

So we'll see that defense was damn good. I know they were opportunistic. I know that the touchdowns that they scored are not stable. They're obviously going to have some regression there, but they turned the ball over at an incredible rate. They do not have a named pass rusher. They just continue to bring in guys in fit scheme and know when to do that. So I like their draft, and I think they're going to be feisty again.

So that's interesting. Let's move on to defensive player of the year. Would love to get your thoughts here, condition at the top of the board. Do you handle this the same way as far as the shot goes with the short lines or anything predictive that you've seen in the markets in the past? You know, I found it just – and maybe this is my nature in the – I found the defensive player of the year, one, they've consistently been either guys that you've seen like Aaron Donald win back-to-back and that. And the other one, it's hard to pinpoint really preseason if you're not in on some of the known guys of where that defensive breakout is going to come from. You know, you can usually project, like, you know, like offensive production,

offensive totals a little bit better than you can on defense where, you know, a guy might – you could have a great season rushing the passer, but only end up with, you know, eight sacks or something like that. And that's – it's – for me, I think, you know, a guy, Stephon Gilmore winning it out of the secondary last year. So this is really, you know, and I didn't agree with that whatsoever. So there's a lot of public perception here. It's a little bit harder to break down from a staff perspective. I typically if I'm going to invest in this, it'll be extremely small.

And that goes for defensive rookie of the year and defensive player of the year i typically stick to the the mvp or the offensive rookie of the year comeback um or coach the year one you know some of those that i can feel like i have a little bit better um ability to quantify this is one um i don't have an investment it's more something that i like to actually you know you start to get a sense for the award. Early season, midseason, see some guys that are popping out. Now that a lot of places, especially New Jersey and DraftKings, hang these on a regular basis, there's more of an ability to see how the narrative shapes up and dabble that way,

as opposed to either spraying a bunch of guys before the year or laying a big chalk number on one of those. So I don't have anything too concrete for defensive player of the year just as a strategy take. I usually like to wait and see how it's shaping up because you can usually buy on some guys that are kind of getting that media push, that public perception at still decent rates as you get into the season. Yeah, that's a really good point. You're going to get a shorter number, but you're going to have a little bit more equity

in it because you know kind of how the market is shaping it for sure. So I like that a lot because this feels similar. We have to reverse engineer it kind of like we did for MVP. MVP has got to be a quarterback. They've got to be on a good team. This has got to be kind of an up-and-coming team or a team that's really good, and then you have to have a big personality or someone that's easy to kind of market as that guy. And I know that seems superficial, but that's what a lot of these awards are anyway.

That's why you can get a BOSA. They like the sexy stat numbers like Nish is talking about, like with the sacks, a lot of variance in that from year to year. Like if Chandler Jones all of a sudden has 10 sacks this year, he doesn't necessarily suck all of a sudden. He just is on the wrong side of the variance. I mean, that can happen. So what are your thoughts?

How do you approach this position, Connor? I mean, yeah, it's also something that I'll probably go pretty small on here, but I kind of like went back through and looked at who won the award over the past 10 years. Interestingly enough, it's been pretty much dominated by Aaron Donald, J.J. Watt, won three out of the last five years, kind of like you said, that name brand. I mean, obviously they've been both very dominant but i thought it was worth noting you know regardless and then looking in the last 10 years it's been two defensive backs two edge rushers one inside linebacker only but then five interior defensive linemen

obviously we know that uh donald won that twice so you know he makes up a chunk of that but still i thought that was interesting and then but over like But over in the totality of everything, we're looking at edge rusher having the most defensive player of the year awards with 17. Next closest interior defensive lineman at 12. Third defensive back at 11. And then inside linebacker at 9. So, yeah, I don't know. I think I'll probably wait to put something down here. But I don't know.

This award, I think, is a little bit harder to handicap here just just in general because like you said a lot of it is probably based on the name and just like how much you know they i mean how dominant they are in any year in like the upcoming year so i think that for me like you know a guy like almost like von miller is probably you know not a super great play just because he's kind of like you know on the other side of the hill here but um i think like guys like tj watt are kind of interesting joey bosa here like in that middle range that we were talking about but and at the same time i think like some of the the later guys here could potentially pop out um if they take the next step forward but um yeah i'll probably wait to see um a little bit in camp and kind of see how

go from there yeah it's got to be a good team again i think too so like we mentioned chandler jones uh we were talking about kyler being you know a ticket on the mvp side like if you got a good kyler number you're basically assuming that that's a good team so maybe bookending him with chandler jones makes some sense you can get a 29 on fanduel pretty much everywhere else you're seeing is a 20 to 1 even a 16 out there. But same premise, basically, right? You've got to have a playoff guy. I think even some of those historic numbers, when we're looking at inside linebacker, even defensive tackle,

unless it's a pass rush guy, I think even that's going to start to fade away historically. I think you're going to get away from the high tackle numbers, some of those things that have maybe been valued higher in the past. Just in general, middle linebackers, unless you're a coverage linebacker, it's just kind of a devalued position in the way of the running back like we were talking about earlier. So, yeah, I think long shots and sprinkling them in as we get a little bit of information,

like Kanishad, I think is probably the optimal way. How about Offensive Rookie of the Year? I mean, this one feels like the time to go a little chalkier than maybe some of the rest. You know, obviously games played and the ability to impact them is massive, and we know that awards like to go to quarterbacks, and there's no other quarterback that is a rookie that appears to be slated to play 16 games other than Joe Burrow. We get into these running backs that all have very similar situations. They're probably all more talented than their predecessor, but there's just not a clear path to 20 touches for on week one

for any of them that doesn't necessarily mean that they're uh they're not in the picture here for offensive rookie of the year but in competition with a guy like burrow who is going to really have every shot to play 16 games and put up some decent numbers with a strong offense around him um what do we do condition is this the way to go no this is this is one where you know if we were doing this show right after the draft uh i think there could have been some more buying opportunity but you've seen every running back that's in somewhat of a a friendly situation from a production standpoint get hammered down where you know clyde edward gire, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers those guys right as

soon as this market opened were trading anywhere from like you know 20 to 1 30 to 1 I think even a little bit larger on some of DeAndre Swift was another one who I think could be in a nice production situation Detroit he was I think he was up you know 40 to 150 all of those numbers again you can shop this a little bit but most of those have just been smashed so it's and that's one where you know we I was okay on the MVP still this a little bit, but most of those have just been smashed. So it's and that's one where, you know, we I was OK on the MVP still buying a little bit. Those basically the price is now in any running back for offensive rookie of the year is is pretty dead for the most part. I can't really I think those guys have a shot, especially Clyde Urbizler and Cam Akers. I could be in a really nice situation. Jonathan Taylor's guy,

he could get 1,000 yards pretty easily behind that Colts offensive line. But now you're in the sitch where obviously Burrow being the only guy that's going to be QB one, has the swag, has a decent setup

offensively there that can you really make an argument now that you should be buying at $650 or $10 to $1 or $16 to $1 in these running backs? Not for me. So it's a little short for me also on Burr. $3 to $1, $4 to $1, I think, or even a little bit higher than that for a touch, depending on where you're at. But now sitting 225, do I want to lay, you know, a couple of units on a preseason award at this point for a 225 or a 250? Just not really. Just not for me.

Not something where I feel that level of certainty that I'm going to lay that price and have a long hold and not get that kind of return. So again, I usually shy away from the short prices on these basic player futures unless I'm really, really bullish. And that's not the case here. Only kind of angle. and this is a same thing as i said with uh basically a tasem hill breeze angle where wentz has a an injury history that's pretty checkered um and i and i know the fans say i'm gonna yell i want to hear a little connor take i know a lot of the fans hate it i love the fit for jalen hertz and philly um I think they'll automatically give them a small package kind of coming into the season. It's one where if Wentz goes down earlier in the year or has

a recurring injury or something like that, I think that coaching staff has proven they can put a guy into a system, into an RPO system, and have him produce. So that'd be one that, again, am I saying go buy that now? No, but that'd be one that i'd be keeping an eye on week in week out where if you can get any type of um you know camp injury or early injury from whence uh that's what i would automatically just buy up a lot of love it yeah there's some 80s and uh hundreds out there so uh what do you think connor yeah i mean i think i think you did a good job breaking it down. Because like you said, all these running backs are just, you know,

they're all in good situations, but they all have a guy who's going to compete with them and take some touches away, at least at the beginning here. So I think for me, like, I would rather just kind of attack them in, you know, like fantasy leagues, like high upside tournaments and things like that, rather than like this kind of format, just because the odds just aren't good enough. Kind of like what Kanisha is saying, like, you know, a guy like Jonathan Taylor at 10 to one is just way, way too short because he needs that. He needs a Mac injury to happen or he needs to basically just outperform him like so, so heavily. And even then, like a guy like Jonathan Taylor isn't going to be used a whole lot in the passing game so it's really going to just have to be a lot of rushing behind

that great offensive line and Burrow I don't know I mean the I think what Kanish said there about like the hold of a plus 225 bet like I mean realistically like if this bet was going to be graded you know over the course of like a week or you know like the season was shorter essentially um and we would get our money back quicker i would you know peg burrow to be even a heavier favorite to be honest because i do think that he has legitimately great weapons with aj green tyler boyd um john ross that drafted t higgins and then joe mixon like this this is a good team who i think will take a next step forward and i know i've talked with kanish i know i've talked with you both about the Bengals, I think that are going to be a little bit underrated heading into the year

if Baroque can play semi-competently or above the Andy Dalton level that we saw last year. I believe you're on the record as Bengals having a week one road win. Is that correct? I am. You gave that one out. Kanish responded to me and said, do you think you're fucking Billy Walter? That was what he told me. But I told him that I thought that the Bengals would win in week one.

So, yeah, I still am going to stick with that. But, yeah, I'm not super confident in it. So, no, Connor Allen, 10 units, bangles money line week one here on the stream. So that's a, I'm glad I've been able to book that for him at, you know, even money. So that was, that was, that was bold take of them right there going out on a limb with that. One I want to hear from you guys.

So this was an award where the skill position, unlike MVP, skill position players actually have a chance. We went through the running backs that have all been hammered down. It was such a great wide receiver draft. I got your play here. I was going to ask you, which wide receiver is in the situation where they could have a big – because those are the prices that on a preseason award are a little bit more attractive to invest in. What's the receiver that's in the spot

where he could actually produce enough to be in contention for this? Michael Pittman. So you're going to have a winning team, right? So they're going to check some of the boxes. I'm not sure that TY is healthy. You don't want to get too heavy into coach speak, but I went in a little bit on our AFC post-draft pod. Like everyone and their brother is really excited about Jonathan Taylor. He was an exciting prospect for sure, but they traded out of the first round, right? They traded that pick to San Fran.

Their first pick was 34 in the second round. They took Pittman. Then they traded back up into the second round to lock up Jonathan Taylor like so if they really wanted Taylor so damn bad they'd have taken him at 34 they didn't want to risk even though it was a really deep receiver class and a lot of guys went after him they wanted Pittman they had him earmarks as their guy I just think he is a prototypical NFL receiver, massive, I think, adjusted size, speed, ability, red zone target there with Ebron gone.

I think there's some red zone opportunities there because you look at the other guys, T.Y. is not a big imposing guy. Paris Campbell can't really stay in the field. He's another guy that's not necessarily a great red zone threat. Pittman kind of checks those boxes too for touchdowns, and I think that that's something that would be applicable to an award like this would be Buzzy with his touchdown numbers, and I think Pittman can produce. So that's definitely –

Interesting. I'll tell you what. I'll tell you what. You sold me. I'm actually – I'm shopping right now. I found a 60-to-1 here. I don't know if you can see better than that. I'm actually going to log in as we speak here,

just in case that anybody on the stream is trying to brief me, too. I'm actually going to place that one. I love Michael Pittman in college. I love him, too. I think he has the maturity. He was a leader on that. A team that I did not think had a great coaching staff or a program that had a lot of what I would call great, you know, fundamental leadership in that program. And he was a guy that, you know, just really excelled in the system, was kind of mature beyond his years. You heard great stories of him, a locker room guy.

I think a guy that can come in and actually, as you said, a nice situation and has the maturity that, look, that's a guy who I know is going to be like a straight-up pro from day one. You know, it's not going to get too cliche, but, you know, is going to know the offense, is going to come and work hard. You don't have to worry about him, you know, being like, you know, a diva or any of that kind of stuff. I think that's a nice look there.

So I'm going to actually grab some of that myself here. But, no, I think there's some – I saw DraftKings at 40-1, but I think if you shop a little bit, there's some 50-1 or better. I'm sold there. If there's a wide receiver, that would be a, that would be a nice look there. If there's one I had to pick. Yeah.

And some of the other guys that I think have decent cases, I think they're just, they're half, you know, half or shorter even than that number on Pittman. And I think it was, I think he was just as good of a prospect. And I think for what do you need for the award?

I think he, you know, fits all those requirements better. I mean, Brandon has got a lot of buzz I think lately with the Debo Samuel injury but we know what they want to do they're going to run the ball and they are going to rotate in six different receivers even just like they do with the backfield like they just they rotate they rotate guys I just um I was a pre-draft Pittman guy and loved the landing spot for him there for sure so uh how about you connor is there a receiver that jumps out for you no i mean i think when you compare it to pitman like uh like you said like guys like rugs ayuk uh jalen rager like technically they

could lead their team in targets but the situations just aren't really right for them to put up like huge seasons i would say out of any of them be rugs but i mean you're looking at half the price of pitman so like are you really going to be going for a guy like that who i would say has similar chances to pitman is like leading their team and targets are coming close um probably not so um yeah i don't know and then i think like i i would say i you probably has a little bit better chance than you're giving him for just because he was kind of he seemed to me like be that hand-picked you know shanahan x receiver who we've seen periodically produced throughout um in his offense you know not not saying that that happens all the time but like it has happened in the past and uh if i use dante pettis yeah okay well you know what dante pettis is sucks like that's kind

of what we figured out and he's he's soft dante Pettis is soft um but yeah so I don't know as far as other receivers go like I think I think Pittman's probably as deep as I would be willing to go and then the Jalen Hurts call I think is interesting we've we talked about him on some of our past pods like he's a really a volatile player that I personally don't know what to expect from and if he was in a starting role I think would be a very interesting experiment yeah I thought that was a really good call too I like that just kind of have your your ear ready for that one uh just be ready to jump to the books because I think that's uh that's a sharp one because that offense has shown like in the shed like they have the ability to adapt and right take Nick Foles off the scrap heap and

win the Super Bowl for you and that's the only one where the guy that um can basically and i i mean he's a guy that could run for you know 60 80 yards a game um and that's it has the the nfl build to like take you know where you could throw him you know eight to ten carries a game in an rpo offense uh and he can take the pounding from there so i don't know i like that i think you'll see, like I said, I'm not going to bank on a Wentz injury, but I think you'll see a little bit of run to be good. I wouldn't be surprised to, you know, see him get like three to five snaps a game in a package or a red zone package anyway.

But we'll see. If Wentz goes down, yeah. I mean, he's a guy who played a ton in college anyway, you know, so he had enough run there. So, yeah, you never know. I mean, that's obviously a long shot to even happen to begin with in a flyer. But, you know, he's a guy that even in a couple years, like looking forward, I think that's a nice situation for him and would make me,

if I can get out of the Carson Wentz contract at some point, and Hurts shows me enough that maybe he's the Eagle starter sooner than later. Yeah, that was a sharp take. I like it. Defensive rookie of the year. I'm guessing we're going to handle this similar to what we did with defense even. Just short at the top with Chase Young, Isaiah Simmons, Patrick Queen, Kenneth Murray at the top. How do we approach this one ish

i i like if i'm gonna tell you i think you know in the the defensive player of the year where we've seen the award be pretty chalky and it's the media guys i think there's more room in this award um for a guy you know a longer shot guy or a guy to come out of nowhere and kind of have that type of rookie breakout season, if he's in the right position, the issue is being able to pinpoint that guy or find that guy and tell you who he's going to be. This is one where, like you say, if you can get a pass rus that that's in a good situation that that's in, you know, maybe as a pass rush specialist and kind of rack up some stats, um, that that's in a certain point. Um, that's the type of guy, uh, that I'd be looking to take a flyer on. Um, but it's,

and this is another one that that's more, I like to get a little bit of info in the, at least Paul camp, get into a couple of preseason games see who's getting snaps um because this is the type of bet that you know the guy the guy's not going to be an earlier on off the rotation that might be done the water you know as you place it when you get into the season so um this is one that that kind of radar in for you know i just one off my head here uh your tour gross matos is a guy who i liked in college who who I think could come in and maybe get to that, make a run at a decent off the edge, six, eight sacks, maybe a little so. That would be the type of character I'm looking for.

But at this point, where you're really lacking information, I haven't played anything yet it's just a market that i like to to keep an eye on for a guy that might pop out in preseason or one of that probably a good idea i was thinking probably handle it similar to how you recommended handling defensive player of the year is there uh anyone on your board corner the corner that you think is worth noting um i mean so nothing i haven't taken anything yet but i think it's it is worth noting so 12 of the last 13 defensive rookie of the year awards went to first round picks um darius leonard won his second round pick in 2018 uh and then 11 of the last 13 winners were selected in the top 15 of the draft so marcus peters was 18th overall and then leonard was 36th so i think kind of like if you are going to play this you can kind

of look at those like top 15 first rounders um who are a little bit like longer shot odds and kind of just hope for the best there um like a guy like i mean maybe javon kinlaw at 25 to 1 here i know that um you know it's not a great situation but uh i think it could be interesting nonetheless because he kind of fits the criteria of the past winners there um and then maybe a guy like cj henderson at 33 to 1 if he you know has a lot of picks but i don't know beyond that i think i'm kind of like probably not going to take too strong of a position here kanish i'm kind of uh ashamed that you didn't you know back your redskins here with uh young i thought that, you know, I saw you were getting cute answers for them. Do I like Chase Young?

Do I like the Redskins potential that they've built? Yeah, but am I going to lay two to one on a defensive rookie of the year award preseason? Hell fucking no, I'm not going to do that. So, yeah, should he be chalked for the award? Absolutely. But, again, that's a price you can't buy on at really any point, unless it's, you know, like that's one of those where if he's 2-1, you know,

maybe midseason and having a great year, would I buy on it? Potentially there, but no. We're sitting here in June on an award with, you know, a decent amount of variance there. No, you got to pass on this one. Or, as you said, I like that analysis there that, you know, usually it's going to be a highly drafted guy, so you can kind of narrow down where you want to take your shots. But, you know, figure out one of your higher drafted guys in a good situation.

You had Okuda on the list of, you know, guys on the radar there. And I think that's one that, you know, he's got the maturity and the fit to kind of come into the Lions defense and play a key role. So, yeah, if I started looking around in that profile of, you know, top half of the first round guys, at 16-1, he might be a guy that, you know, I'm taking a look at for a small piece. But again, that'd be after we get into camp. You want to see – that's not a number that's going to like,

oh, people are going to steam Okuda for defense. So that's not something that I'm running to hit. That's one you can kind of sit, let marinate, see if he gets some good camp reviews and can produce a little bit looking maybe like going to be their you know cb1 for the the team so um yeah this is one again the market we talked about similar uh to defensive let this marinate a little bit it gets more information um as these numbers aren't going anywhere so you can come back once once you've got a little bit better feel connor do you find anything as far and i don't know if you did when you pulled this but i'm'm curious too as far as teams win-loss record here.

So how impactful of a rookie can you be and still be up for this award if your team just absolutely sucks? Have we seen anything with that or were you able to pull that in your system? I have no idea, honestly. I didn't go into that deep. But I think it would be worth a look. I mean, I don't know. Yeah, honestly, I have no idea, to be quite honest. I think that this kind of 12 of 13 and 11 of 13 probably fits as much as we're going to get there from this. And then, yeah, I think having a winning team would probably be something else to look into

if you were really trying to handicap this award. But kind of like Kanish said, I think that we have a little bit of time here um to kind of figure out a better play potentially for sure yeah looking at those early corners too i mean they're not their top half but like the jags could really suck right right right a lot but you know if the jags win three games like is he going to be up for the award unless he has, like, you know, eight picks? Then probably not. Right.

Yeah, exactly. I mean, he'd have to go, like, full Revis considering, like, half his secondary is probably going to be, like, burned. So, yeah, it's like it would have to be, like, no targets a game or, like, whatever one targeted game and getting picks every time he's targeted for him to win this award. So, yeah, it's kind of – it's tough for him to pull that off for sure i i'm going to keep an eye on jeff gladney i don't you know later first round pick tcu for for minnesota he's just going to have to be the guy right away i mean

they xavier rhodes is gone some other guys there you know are gone as well um so he's he's going to have to be important right away for them and again I feel like if I'm going to look at him versus C.J. Henderson, like C.J. Henderson, who's a better player, but Gladney's on a team that made the playoffs last year, is in kind of a volatile division. They very much could be a playoff team again. And if he's important in that, there's some 40s and 50s out there. So a little bit more appealing than the 16s and 20s we're seeing on the top end guys.

Worth noting, but I think we handle it just like we do defensive player of the year, kind of like Kish said. What do we got here? Comeback player of the year. When in the world constitutes comeback? I look at some of these guys

and I'm like, all right, so Ben got boat raced in week one against new England and then hurt his elbow in week two. Gronk was just drinking. JJ Watt was like hurt again. Alex Smith, that's a legit comeback. But then you just have some guys that just kind of sucked last year, like Todd Gurley, Miles Garrett. What's he coming back from?

He got suspended for a few games for clocking some dude in the head with his helmet. Right, right. It just seems to be such. Baker Mayfield coming back from having to quarterback under Hugh Jackson for a point of period of time in his career. Yeah, this one's a little bit harder to define um the parameters like pre-season of who's even going to be up unless you had like a a long-standing injury

um that you're coming back from where you know you can kind of you're automatically qualifying yourself from the award um then then it's a little bit difficult to defend what exactly goes into this preseason. But as you said, I mentioned him in MVP, and do I really want to lay 7-1 on him for Comeback Player of the Year? No, but Stafford has a classic case of getting hurt. Team didn't play well. If the Lions are able to win nine or ten games and make the playoffs and he plays well he's got a very very very strong case um to win comeback player

of the year um you know obviously bronx on this list is you know gone and i'm sure that would be a uh you know nfl media love fest if he was having that kind of season but um of anybody that's on this list that i think's real i mean some of somebody like Cam doesn't even have a team yet. You know, Tua wasn't in the league. So I think this is a little bit of a sketchy list in terms of who's even on it. But I wouldn't mind shopping for the best. If I could find Stafford at over, I don't think I'd play seven. If I could find a 10-1 or better, I might take a little position there uh on him for comeback player of the year but I don't have much else than that as far as

feeling too strong one way or another I don't I just don't think some of these guys are um like good at like J.J. Watt at seven to one yeah he fits the profile of an injury I don't think J.J. Watt can produce at a high level um in the NFL on a week-to-week basis anymore so I don't think J.J. Watt can produce at a high level in the NFL on a week-to-week basis anymore. So I don't think there's a ton of guys on this list that, you know, like Nick Foles. I just don't think there's a lot of guys who can produce at a level that are coming off an injury that can even be, you know, top half NFL players anymore. No, this is a wild list. I mean, David Johnson, we watched him die midseason last year. He has to be a favorite just from not being dead anymore. What do you think here, Connor?

I mean, this is a – Yeah, I mean, some of them are funny. Like I looked at Antonio Brown. Like even if Antonio Brown like had came back, signed with the team, had an awesome year, like the NFL would just be like, fuck you. You're a dick. Like he just spends straight up like the nfl would just be like fuck you you're a dick like he like he just just spent straight up like shitting on the nfl and like teams like for whatever past year like they're not gonna let him win this award like they would give it to someone

else you know it's like they just like they would veto any any comeback player of the year award for antonio brown so i don't know i'm like ben roethlisberger makes a lot of sense but a three to one like no shot I'm not playing that. I mean, he's like, you know, he's like elbow, like tendon, like fell off, like of his arms. Like, you know what I mean? It's like a guy who could easily just fall apart at any second. So I don't know. I think I think I'm kind of out on maybe this award in general, but it's definitely funny to look at.

I mean, Alex Smith, like, dude, he's probably never going to play again. Like he's probably never going to take a snap. And even if he does, there's a good chance his leg just crumbles as he takes a five-step drop. So, I mean, yeah, no. None of this. And he's short. I mean, you're looking at sevens out there.

Maybe, honestly, a comeback is him taking a snap, like a kneel at the end of the game. They're like, that is the comeback player of the year. And if he does, give him a second award. Seriously. That might be it. Yeah.

I don't hate the Stafford take. I mean, yeah, they were balling with Bevel there. And, you know, I like the weapons. You got Hawk taking a step forward. You got Marv coming back for hopefully a full year. We know Galladay's a baller. Yeah, I haven't shopped price-wise for this one too much, but if – let's see. If I look around, I'm seeing there's a 750 there.

That would be by far of a guy that you're looking to target that easily the preseason-wise, the strongest play there, I think, would be Stafford at the best number you can find as a lot of guys that either on the list preseason don't even make sense or would have almost no chance to even win. Yeah, it's really interesting. I mean, Gurley wasn't good good but like comeback player of the year right seems a little extreme all right uh what do we got last year coach of the year um i mean somehow belichick doesn't win this every year

what do you got on this one connor what do you think yeah i mean i think i thought that was kind of an interesting thing is like there's i mean a lot of the value that would be on on coaches of like ascending teams which seems like who wins this award um it's kind of like already taken up so like bruce arians i mean he would be a good choice but like he's already the favorite to win it you know with the bucks here um and then you're looking like guys like mike mccarthy with the cowboys and you know shannon i guess is still there but like cliff kingsbury's at 20 to 1 and like we already talked about that kind of like kyler murray is 25 to 1 win mvp and like like they're already like they're already factoring in at basically everything that

it seems like is already happening in the sphere. So I don't know. I couldn't really find a lot of value on, you know, this particular thing. I don't know if, Kanish, you have anything on the coach of the year. Hello? You got me? Yeah. Yeah, I got you. Let's see here. hello got me yeah yeah i got you um uh let's hear i think the other stat that uh i thought was interesting was the worst record of a coach to win coach of the year is 11 and 5

so um at least that that was in like the past 10 years so no that's that's a good little sit i'll give you one um that that i like a decent and it's because i'm so bullish on the team uh would be frank reich at 20 no better better i'm i'm in on the colts pretty heavy this year i think it's a team that that could win 10 11 12 games uh i love the roster again phil rivers um i'm not gonna tell you it's gonna be this you know great you know amazing comeback story and he and he throws for 5 000 yards but if anything i think that rivers not being able to totally overshadow if the team is you know has that type of year makes the coach of the year case a little stronger um so that'll be of as you said the guys the, the known guys, the guys that the hot names that people want to be on, Arians and stuff, have already steamed.

But I like, I'm actually going to shop. I think I can get a better price on Reich than 20 to 1, 30 to 1, if I can shop that around. That would be a buy for me. I think the Colts are going to win their division. I think they got a chance to win 11 or 12 games. I love what they've built just organizationally and their roster. They added some needed pieces in the offseason and in the draft. I just like what they got going.

They could make a run at the best record in the NFL this year if Rivers is at least adequate. So I'm going to take a piece of Frank right here preseason. I'm going to shop for a little bit better number than what they're showing at DraftKings right now, but I will be. That, for me, is probably preseason the only play I'm looking at right now on the board, as there's nobody else that I can really make a, you know, a huge strong guy. I know I said lions earlier with Stafford.

So, you know, Matt Patricia's in the long shot category. That's going to be tough for me to stomach. Cause I don't think the lions can get up that, you know, that, you know, 11, 12, 13 win range. I think if anything, they, you know, they have a good year be nine or 10. So, so I'm going to look at Frank Reich is going to be the play for me there. It's just shopping to get the best price on that, and that'll probably be a full-size play for me once I can get down on that. I like it too. It's usually got to be someone that

far exceeds expectations. You never see the guys that are projected for 10 wins, 10.5 wins, and they hit 11 or 12, and then they coach of the year. It just never, never happens. So staying off the top of the board, I think, makes a ton of sense. Yeah, and I thought the Colts would have a little bit better last year. Kind of not hitting that level, I think, makes the case even stronger for Reich this year. It's basically where they can get, you know, now if they exceed the expectations,

where I think the win total is right around 8.5. So for a team that I think could possibly win, you know, 11 or 12, I think that sets up very nice from him. And, you know, I'm super bearish on the rest of their division. Every other team in the division, I think they could win this division going away. And I love that they have six games against, you know, the Texans, the Titans, and the Jags in that division. So, yeah, that is by far my favorite play on this list. And it's probably going to be the only preseason of the ones we've talked about that I'm going to bet like a full-size play for me on.

It's going to be this Reich Coach of the Year award that I'm going to get down a little bit more sizable on than the other stuff we've talked about. Okay. Yeah. I mean, I thought what was funny is like you're pricing Brian Flores a 20-1 as the same as Frank Reich. Like, dude, when are the Dolphins going to win 11 games? Right, right. In what world does that happen? Like, you know, Tua just magically heals and then is, you know, the next guy.

Even then, like, the roster is just, like, not good enough to produce, like, I don't know, even a winning season is a stretch. Like, I think the Dolphins will be better, but, like, that's, like, yeah. So, I don't know, even a winning season is a stretch. Like I think the Dolphins will be better, but like that's like, yeah. So I don't know. I thought that some of these prices are just pretty wacky here, and that was one that stood out to me. Other than that, I think your right take makes a lot of sense here, especially for this award. All right, so that covers the awards.

What others do we have on the books? We're going to open up a little bit, Connor. I know you've got some player props down, and I would love to hear a little bit about what Kanisha has so far, too, that's caught his eye. Probably most of it, if you're looking to, you know, tail anything at home, especially for some of the win total stuff, is probably gone.

Like some of those early numbers, you know, when these lines came out late April, you know, early May for different books, like they're betting to at this point pretty heavily so market has shaped those but uh what do you got from a prop standpoint connor yeah i got like so from a prop standpoint i just released an article it was basically uh i put marlin mac under 750 and a half yards like these are still all available at draft teams i think that's going to go you know way down um i you know i went in depth on it there but with taylor coming into the fold i don't really see you know

mac still exceeding 750 yards i took the under on darius slayton uh essentially any game that he played with you know a healthy um sterling shepherd golden tate or evan ingram and saquon barkley's basically banged up all last year, and he was a great pass catcher. I mean, like, he basically just benefited from, you know, no one else being there to catch the ball who was, like, a reasonable talent. I think Darius Slayton's a good player, don't get me wrong. I just think he's a better real-life talent than he is, like, a producer.

And especially in that offense with Daniel Jones, like, you have, like, he's potentially the fourth or fifth, like, best option, pass catching option in that offense. So, uh, right now you're seeing him at 750 and a half yards on draft Kings. Like, uh, Fox bet is posting like a six 74 at four for four. We have him at like six 80. So I like the under there as well. And then I also took overs on AJ Brown, um, at like nine 75 and Tyreek Hill at 1150. I think both of those guys, you know, are like, I don't really like betting overs this at like 975 and Tyreek Hill at 1150.

I think both of those guys are like, I don't really like betting overs this early, but those are two guys that stood out to me compared to our projections. They were each hundreds of yards off of our projection. So basically, for me, if they play a full season, that's going to hit. And a lot of these casinos, like DraftKings and Rivers, who just launched, have pretty good deposit bonuses. So, you know, like you're putting money into hold

for a long period of time, but at the same time, like a lot of it's just kind of like free money. So for me, like I'm kind of capitalizing on that and, you know, kind of putting some money on these player props, which I think are like well off. Like the Marlin Mac mac we have 55 percent less of our projection we have a projector for like 480 yards um so yeah i think with a lot of these like those are kind of my main ones so far and then i got on a lot of like win totals early that you know probably don't make a lot of sense now at this point like giants under six and a half packers under nine and a half um and then yeah i think those are the those are the two big ones i took positions on um but i'm sure kanisha has some other ones that he got down on earlier

yeah no it's funny you know like just uh i'll piggyback real quick on what my favorite um player prop that i got down on so far i didn't play a ton um as you're saying just because we talked about all the uncertainty but my favorite player prop that I got down on so far this offseason was Jonathan Taylor over 550 rushing yards. Oh, my God. Which goes right into your wheelhouse there for taking the Mac under. I thought that number was literally, you know, 300 yards under. I think you've seen now, you know, some places in the market are like,

you know, 900, 950. I wouldn't, I wouldn't play that, but you know, there was, when he originally got out there, there was some, you know, 550 to 650 and that was an automatic over for me. I will hear, let me do, I played. So in terms of regular season wins, Circa does all win totals. We played a number of those.

I like that a little bit better than even playing. I did a couple last year. We went even a little bit bigger this year. It's something where you're able to extrapolate even the edge if you're strong on a team or your projections are right on where we basically can, A, get a little bit more money down, and then you're getting, you know, obviously an inflated price when you're taking the old projection. So we played here.

Let me stick some of them here. Steelers under 8 plus 245, Raiders under 6.5 plus 170, Eagles under 8.5 plus 215, Saints under 9.5 plus 175, Seahawks under 8.5 plus 165, and Chargers over 9 plus 220. So that was, if you can get a sense for, there was a couple of the other win totals that Connor mentioned that, that, you know, it took straight up with the Cowboys took the Cowboys over a Packers under. But I like some of those are safe. Again,

I know a lot of people don't have access, but those prices are reasonably in range at Circa. And those were just a number of teams that the Steelers were a team that I was super bearish on this year. Eagles and Saints totals, I just thought were high to begin with of their win total. So those were a couple of the sprinkles I've taken so far in the win total market. But as we've said, my portfolio for NFL futures is much, much lighter at this point than it has been in a long time. So outside of some sprinkles here and there and those all win totals and a couple of the ones we talked about tonight, that's about it for

me. Well, I'm looking more towards um getting into the whatever the season looks like and then being able to hopefully capitalize on the the wild information trading and the differences in home field and a lot of the stuff that that's going to be different this football season that um you know might add much more variance than typical nfl year yeah should be should be crazy i like a couple unders. I like the Falcons under 7.5. That's still available pretty much everywhere. I got the Raiders 7.5.

It's down to 7, under 7.5. Yeah, I like that. I like that in most places, too. Just tough schedule. I don't believe in that team. I feel like they were pretty fluky. I think they were like 2-5 in one-score games last year, and I just don't think they believe in their quarterback, and I definitely don't believe in that team i feel like they were pretty fluky i think they were like two and five in one score games last year and i just i don't think they believe in their quarterback and i definitely don't either um and then um what did i have i had under falcons under or the giants

other six and a half and then i like the over i wrote about it here on four for four um i even though it's inflated now it bounced back down i do like the over on the Buccaneers. I think that schedule is really nice. They do not go outside basically in any cold weather. Nice schedule to end the season. I think that the defense took steps forward, and I'm on team Brady is not washed. So I like the Buccaneers to show up. So pretty much the end of my card.

I don't have any – i have not sprinkled at all on player props yet but uh it'll be something i'll look into when uh you know i knew our our new rivers book here in illinois is nice so i'm going to start to dig into that a little bit more see what they have to offer yeah thank god chicago figured it out pretty quick it seems like also this one i want to make you really, really want to check the language on Player Prize for anybody out there reading, with all the uncertainty, a lot of books have changed up the house rules where typically you would be able to bet unders across the board, and then if guys miss some games,

you're basically sitting pretty. I've seen a lot of books switch to language that says guys have to play all 16 games. Oh, my gosh. Where? For a couple of different places in Vegas and some guys I knew that were betting player props that basically they – I think Caesars put that on there. I don't want to put them on blast because I understand they're trying to protect themselves. But basically that the old, like, I mean, if you think COVID is going to be a thing this year with quarantines and that,

where, you know, player prop unders could be basically a across the board position that you think would come in. But I've seen some books kind of taking an early step to to protect themselves uh for those reasons so just be mindful if you're going to play uh player props of what the language says either way because if it's got that 16 game clause in there i'd feel much more comfortable playing overs and not be interested in playing unders yeah i think that's just good advice broad spectrum for if you're if you're betting especially if it's new to you like um you know again i don't want to go off into the golf tangent but golf can be scored very differently in matchups or three ball yeah

for the top 10s top fives is a key one that i've seen so you know doing your homework it's just like basic 101 you got to know the rules in which you're playing because, you know, there's no universal bylaw that just is going to protect you. You've got to know what you're doing when you're putting your money in. So good call-out for sure. Anything else, Connor? Any other nuggets to sprinkle in? No, I think that was about it.

I thought we did, you know, a pretty good job kind of covering most of our bets here and kind of breaking down the awards. I know that we'll have some more pods you know going in depth on each division coming up um and kind of like you know breaking everything down but i think both you and i are we're trying to wait a little bit to get a little more certainty and um kind of understand like it's a lot easier to break down division once i camp start and you know more injuries happen and b reporters are telling you like you know giving you insight on depth happen and beat reporters are telling you like you know

giving you insight on depth charts like things like that that just make it a lot easier to analyze teams um instead of you know this far out but uh at some point i think with you know these camps kind of like in doubt i know that they announced today like whatever an hour or so before we got on here that they're going to start in like a month i think was that what it was like late july they were going to try and start ramping up some camps um but who knows so i think we're kind of probably just going to dive into it in the next coming weeks and just go with what we know and uh kind of go from there yeah i can't see anything from a team win total standpoint changing like i can't see learning anything new unless it was something like

COVID related where I feel like those are really sharp. But there's the ability to shop player props specifically like you said when we started to have some stuff filter itself off through camp. I think we might be able to take some different positions on that market. But Kanish, thanks for joining us

man. Everyone find him on Twitter at JoeyKanish 22. If you are not already following him, um, highly entertaining, very sharp. Oh yeah, man. Good to be on with you guys. Um, and I'll be buying the drinks when, uh, Mr. Pittman wins, uh, offensive rookie of the year. Oh, I like that one a lot. So hopefully, uh, you know, people are able to scoop that up and then end of the season.

We'll all be shooting you a toast. Hell yeah. Let's do it. It's awesome. See, it's a win win. Yeah. Thanks man.

Appreciate it very much. You guys take care. Yeah!