Move The Line - 2022 AFC South Betting Odds, Best Bets & Predictions

Episode Date: August 11, 2022

Move The Line 2022 AFC South Betting preview hosted by Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan & John Daigle. Which AFC South team is favored to win the division? Which AFC South bet provides the best value? What's the worst way you can lose money betting on the AFC South?Timestamps:0:00 Intro7:50 AFC South Betting Preview Overview8:14 Colts Betting Preview17:27 Titans Betting Preview25:01 Jaguars Betting Preview32:06 Texans Betting Preview39:29 Best AFC South Bets41:06 OutroMove The Line is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. New users who sign up for an account using promo code 4FOR4 will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000) 👉🏼  https://4for4.com/go/FanDuelWant a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼  https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMGet a FREE 4for4 Pro or DFS Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit)  👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wtvfuhSubscribe to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/plansFollow 4for4 on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4footballFollow 4for4 Bets on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/4for4betsFollow Move the Line on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/MoveTheLineNFLFollow Connor on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/ConnorAllenNFLFollow Ryan on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/RyNoonanFollow John on Twitter 👉🏼  https://twitter.com/notJDaigleVisit our Website 👉🏼  https://www.4for4.com/Join our Discord 👉🏼  http://discord.gg/4for4Subscribe to our YouTube Channel 👉🏼  https://www.youtube.com/4for4football4for4 Betting Strategy Hub 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3hm39cw4for4 Betting Picks 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3LUp0EaOffseason NFL Betting Tracker 👉🏼  https://4for4.co/3sWVsi9

Hello and welcome to Move Align presented by FanDuel. Promo code 444. New FanDuel users can take advantage of the risk-free first bets. Get up to $1,000 back if you don't win. Download the FanDuel Sportsbook app today. Enter our promo code 444 and take advantage of Mariah Noonan. Joint here, as always, by my friends, Connor Allen, John Daigle. Connor, welcome back.

We missed you. Thanks. I missed you guys too. It was weird listening to the episode without being able to chime in there. I think you guys, you know, took it a little too easy on the bears. You know, I think that we need to, you know, go in even a little harder on them. I think you, we let sharp Clark have his way too much there. You know, my, my think that the bears might be okay. They're going to be terrible. So, you know, just, just got to give a word of word of that out to the audience there. Felt bad. Cause I know know you had takes there we had to do that one without you but uh yeah i picked that who picked that it was probably him

right i think it was jd jd damn it no what's all uh what division or yeah division yeah it was me i mean what's what's softer than i literally said all under five and a half or plus 130 like what's softer than that no i wanted like a passionate 10 minute rant about why the city of Chicago was going to burn down this season when, you know, they win two games. Awesome. Here,

John Dale, what's going on, bud? Part of NFL season. Everything's happening. Nothing's stopping. Heart of NFL season. It's August.

We're like 30 days away from games it feels like the football season's already mid-year we'll try not traveling every weekend tell my friends to stop getting married self-inflicted uh well we are uh on seven of eight as far as our divisional previews series goes uh we have not saved the best for last, but these are football teams and they matter and we can bet on them. And we're going to find ways to do so. If you have not been able to join us for the previous shows, whether you are consuming this on YouTube or a podcast form,

go ahead and check that out. Basically where you can find the podcast, subscribe, rate, and review. We appreciate all those things. Obviously helps us uh up and let other people find us pays the bills more than you would think so uh definitely do us a favor there uh and jump in the comment section we would love to know who you think is going to win this afc south it is a pretty uh maybe not open division but you know pretty crappy overall i think there's some ability to move around here and i definitely feel like it's probably a one playoff team division, but we can parse that out with the gentleman here as we get through it. Also to let you know, 444.com slash plans is your

best way to get a betting subscription. Betting subscription gives you access to everything on the site. DFS, season long, redrafts, high stakes, whatever you possibly can imagine. All the tools and resources and rankings and all the things that we have on the site, which we think are the best in the industry. And we continue to push ourselves. Connor and I have spent a lot of time this off season trying to think of new tools and ways to level up our game here at 444 to make things better for both us on the content side and to streamline things for us and also make it really easy for you as a user.

We really try to help with the mindset of teaching you how to fish and looking for different analytics and different ways to tell the story of football through numbers and have really challenged Sam Hoppin, our director of tools and data and all the stuff that he does to kind of challenge him to get more stuff. And we have a new stat explorer tool that we want to share with you that is on the site now. Look, you in the past would have to go to a lot of different sites. Thank you, Sal, with the Vanna White, producer Sal, crushing it as always. You have to go to a lot of different sites to go out and find a lot of this stuff. And Sam, at the request of basically getting into Connor and I's brain, has pulled this out into a tool where you can basically not just filter

for situation, down and distance, do anything you possibly want. If you scroll down a little bit, any offensive stat that we think matters is going to be here at a click of a button for you. Anything that you could possibly want, EPA, yards per play, pass rate over expectation points per drive yards per drive play success rates turnover rates anything get it on the defensive side you can get different tendencies offensive and defensive around three receiver sets um how often do they go with six offensive line and all sorts of different random things that can help us make

better decisions when we're trying to make matchup-based decisions, make start-sit decisions, make bets, make totals, make plays on props, all you can imagine. And then if you click into the matchup tool, Sal, the matchup section, that's kind of the heart of this here. That's going to allow you to customize team by team and look at offensive stats and defensive stats for the two teams that are playing this week. You want to find out that, you know, all right, I want to bet an over on Jamar Chase's receiving yards this week. Well, I look at his matchup, and his opponent is 30th in explosive play rate.

Well, we know that that's confirmation biased on top of what you already thought Jamar Chase's line could be because the team he's playing gives up a lot of big plays. You could be able to see this here with a click of a button. That's something that you would not be able to find nearly as easy anywhere else on the internet. So really do think this is a differentiator. This will be part of the betting subscription. A lot of our tools can fall into different categories. We're going to have this as far on a player side as well. So this a team level stats we have player level stats that are about to be released as well if you want to get into you know yards per route run or target share or carries inside the five inside the ten

touchdown rate all that stuff from a player level it's gonna look just like this and it's coming later this week as well so really really excited. And again, this is something that I've done a 50% version of for years by hand and is nowhere near what this has ended up being like. So super stoked about this, Connor. I know you are as well. Yeah. I mean, I'm pumped. It's something that I think you and I talked about it like years ago. And then you started doing it by hand. I pitched it to multiple other websites prior to working at 444. One said it's, quote, too powerful. That was a legitimate quote that I got about a tool like this. And then also pitched it to one of our friends, Elliot, at multiple sites as well. And it's only Sam Hoppin's able to get it done.

So shout out, Sam. Props to Sam. So super stoked about this. This is one of the many tools that we have in the betting side that just make it a little bit easier as far as, you know, finding ways to get down and make decisions. So thanks for sharing that Sal, really stoked about that. Again, it's free currently, but I believe that window is closing here very shortly. So if you are listening, podcast here on Thursday or watching with us live on Wednesday, you can go over to 444.com,

click on the betting tab. It'll drop down and you'll see the tab there to play along with that. And again, it is going to be a difference maker in the season. It is going to help dramatically to make some decisions on the fly. And that's really what we have to do when we're betting. We have this really short window sometimes where lines can move really quickly and we want to be able to capture that and hoping this is one of the many tools that we have on site that can help you and i uh and us do this so really stoked great job there sam all right afc south uh it is uh gonna be interesting here they from a

scheduling standpoint interdivision wise they play the afc, not great, and the NFC East, which is a little bit easier for them. Their wonky 17th game comes against the NFC North. From a strength of schedule standpoint, they all have kind of middling strength of schedules, even a little bit easy, mostly because they get to play against each other twice, and that really does help over the course of the season. So we'll get it started with the Colts. They are the favorites here.

They are 25-1 to win the Super Bowl, 14-1 to win the NFC. The win totals vary. They're 10.5s out there at MGM. You can get 9.5s out there. Caesars, FanDuel, they are minus 120 to win this division. Best number there on FanDuel as well. They have the third easiest schedule in the league and they have a slight rest disadvantage uh negative five on the season so colts qb carousel has just kind of continued to turn a little bit since andrew luck retired uh we are in the matt ryan stage we had jacoby reset philip rivers carson wentz all kind of took a shot for a year but once in particular was interesting i obviously gave up a lot to get him they thought that frank wr Wright could kind of bring him back from the dead after working together in Philly. They started 0-3, rallied 8-2 midseason, including four wins against would-be playoff

teams, including just absolutely destroying the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo, which was interesting. But they needed one win in the last two weeks down the stretch against the Raiders and Jags, and Wentz was terrible. I know Dagle loves to talk about Wentz, so I'll let you get started here. Moving on from the Wentz era to Matt Ryan, I have to think you think is a pretty massive upgrade. Matt Ryan was seventh and on target rate at Sports Info Solutions behind an O-line that allowed a league high pressure rate last year and without Calvin Ridley for majority of

the season, and Kyle Pitts and Russell Gage banged up as well. It is now playing suddenly behind the best O-line of his career, so it's an upgrade for both Ryan and the Colts. You mentioned the schedule. We mentioned their upgrades on defense and past shows, whether it be Stephon Gilmore or added edge rushers in free agency. So overall, yes, I think there's a very easy reason to be in on the Colts all in on the

Colts, I should say. And honestly, when we get to the Titans, I think the argument against the Titan sort of makes the argument for the Colts as well. Yeah, that's a good point. What do you got here, Connor? I think a lot of the same. We actually on this show, what a month ago, two months ago at this point released released officially that we'd like the Colts to win the division at minus 105. That's now minus 120. And I think it's still playable. You know, at this point, I think that, you know, you guys did a good job summarizing kind of like their offseason edition here. And I just don't think it can be stated enough how significant an upgrade Matt Ryan is to Carson Wentz, like Carson Wentz, you know, loses games. Matt Ryan does not. And Matt Ryan also, you know, can actually win games. He's a quarterback capable of putting the team on his back. And so I think that given the defense, which ranked, you know, eighth in DVO last year, made some good upgrades as well, you know,

probably could flirt with top five numbers in a lot of, a lot of ways. And, you know, given the ease of this division, I think that they should have no problem doing so. Yeah, I'm torn. I mean, I think this is by far the best team of this division, I think that they should have no problem doing so. Yeah, I'm torn. I mean, I think this is by far the best team in the division, but I really kind of struggle to think that this is actually a really good team. And I guess that that's – sometimes when you get to the playoffs, anything can happen there. But I think the offensive line always is a little bit better on paper or in people's minds than they actually end up performing in season like

i think that's maybe the quentin nelson factor i think he's so damn good that they kind of get a lot of credit there but they're pretty middle of the pack they're actually like 20th and past block win rate last year now again it's an upgrade for matt ryan compared to what he had last year in atlanta but they're this is a better run blocking team um and even that like they're the fourth highest stuff rate in the league last year. So they did have some injury, you know, guys up front. So I think that, you know, staying healthy, there's some continuity things that can happen here and maybe an upgrade, but they have a question mark at left tackle.

It's the most important position on the line. We don't know really what's going to happen there. Could be, you know, fifth round rookies, some guys that have been kind of flipping around being swing guys for them the last couple of years. So I think that's a pretty big question, the off season. JD, I'd love to get your thoughts from a fantasy perspective on JT around, again, he was awesome.

I don't think anyone's going to argue, but some of the stuff around, you know, his goal line carries, like he had more carries inside the five last year than anyone else had carries inside the 10 last year. Saw that today messing around with Sam's new player tool. That's coming soon, but like that's insane.

And from a fantasy standpoint, that's pretty impactful. Yeah. And I've been taking Christian McCaffrey as my overall RB one overall player in general and FFPC leagues, this full PPR, but in half PPR leagues, I still take Jonathan Taylor.

Like I understand the argument, but also he in leading the league and red zone carries and also leading the league in first downs and with better quarterback play, I think it's just going to be a tremendously more efficient offense than it was last year. So I don't think too much about it, especially because then you have to ask who is the RB three. And no matter who you ask,

it's always different. So there's still a drop off behind McCaffrey and JT. Yeah. How about outside of Michael Pittman, who if you're an OG move-the-line listener, this is not news to you. We told you Michael Pittman was going to be a baller. Connor, we got the receipts for that.

But outside of Pittman, there's some guys there. They drafted Alec Pierce, Paris Campbell, who we've all been waiting for, for years, can't stay healthy. They seem to really lack, like Ashton Dalton, who apparently is just kind of an incredible athlete, was more of a special teams guy, but they want to give him a role a little bit. And now we have Moelle Cox, maybe freed with Jack Doyle retiring. Who can really step up here, Connor?

Is there anyone that you think is going to be able to grab this number two job? I mean, I kind of thought that Paris Campbell has been, you know, flashing enough that he could potentially get it, but I would say between him and Alec Pierce, it's probably my two bets. It seems like Pierce has more talent, I guess, and more of an unknown as a rookie. But I mean, most of the reports have been, you know, nonstop talking about Paris Campbell, but again, that just could be training camp hype. I have no idea whether I really want to buy into that or not. Um, so I don't know. Do you guys, what do you guys think about the, the Naheem Hines reports? Like, it seems like he's getting a pretty steady drum beat of, you know, pass catching and like more of that. And that even

started like early, like that started what in like Matthew Barry's like combine article that he does like where it was like, Oh, like this guy's going to see a ton of pass catching or something. It was super long ago. And I don't know. I mean, I'm not sure that's really like where it was like oh like this guy's gonna see a ton of pass catching or something it was super long ago and i don't know i mean i'm not sure that's really like significant but i mean it's been kind of enough reports where it's worth like talking about i think i think they wanted to get naomi mines involved that way but couldn't because carson wentz was under center uh heinz has actually yet to fall short of 57 targets in any season he's been in the league four years now. So he continues to actually get involved in that role,

but we still need more touches. So I think it's going to be closer to Tony Pollard, whereas if you're flexing this player, your team sucks. Like you actually can't win with this player and a starter ahead of him. So I don't want to get too high on the role, but I do think he is involved in that role more. I just think he's a better on-the-field player than in fantasy. Yeah, I do too. I think he's actually pretty good so if he can carve out a role that'll probably help them um i'm optimistic defensively like i think that

they got players right like you know quitty pay was excellent as a rookie uh darius is now shack leonard you know we know he's a baller though it looks like he's going to maybe miss some time or at least it looks like it's always interesting to miss some time, or at least it looks like. It's always interesting to me when they can tell you 30 days out that a guy looks like he's out for week one, around that being a one-week injury. So maybe that's something that kind of goes on a little bit further. Kenny Moore is terrific.

They added Stephon Gilmore, which is a big deal. Yannick Ngakwe in free agency. They do have a ton of talent. Again, DeForest Buckner, probably the best player on defense, um, you know, defensive side up the middle, but Gus Bradley is kind of a donkey and,

uh, like just kind of feels like a guy that relationally is able to continue to parlay jobs. We know last year, like go back to like the chiefs, like everyone was slowing the chiefs down because they just kept running cover two and doing like giving them different looks and forcing them to play underneath.

And then Gus Bradley is like, no, we're doing cover three. And then they just kept running cover two and doing like giving them different looks and forcing them to play underneath and then Gus Bradley's like no we're doing cover three and then they just like torch them and like we got like the old Chiefs back last year so I'm interested to see if they can kind of do that despite Gus Bradley who is going to play a ton of zone and rarely blitzes which is very different than kind of the things that we saw although Everflus plays a lot of cover two as well so it's gonna be little bit different, but you guys aren't worried about Gus Bradley at all? You just think there's enough talent here? I mean, definitely a little worried, but at the same time, I think talent usually wins out at least to an extent.

And it's not like they were like uber elite last year. They were just like a good unit. So I think that maintaining that is probably a reasonable expectation, I think. Yeah, they were inefficient, as Dagle pointed out. I think we see some improvements there. They were worst red zone passing offense in the league last year. We see third worst red zone passing defense too. So I think there's some ways for them to come back to the pack on both of those.

Opening schedule is really soft. They play within the first seven weeks, both games against the jags and titans so it's four of those games uh and then they start the season on the road against houston so the other two are casey and denver but again five out of seven within the division to start the year and probably make the case pretty confidently it's the worst division in football so i do think that the best team though but like dagle said i think that has more to do with the rest of the division than than me being really bullish on the colts so all right move on to the titans 40 to 1 to win the super bowl 20 to 1 to win the afc eight and a half is out there for an over there are nine and a

half out there on the underside of fanduel and they are plus 175 on points bets to win the division strength of schedule kind of middle of the pack they have a negative five rest advantage yeah i mean connor let you get started here mike variable i think did a great job coaching this team last year we know that they were the worst at least according to football outsiders dvoa the worst number one seed in football outsiders history they were pretty bad what do you think about the titans yeah i keep going back and forth on them and i think i need to re-watch some of the games because I agree, you know, like where we ended up was we said that on our podcast, we said they're the worst number one seed that I remembered in, you know, recent history. But then when you go back and look

at like kind of their games, they beat the chiefs, the Rams, the bills and the 49ers, but lost to the jets, Steelers, Patriots, Texans, and were skunked by the Cardinals. And then, you know, whatever, first round after a buy exit to the Bengals. So I don't know. I mean, I keep going back and forth, but looking at like kind of the pieces here, you know, the AJ Brown for Traylon Burke swap that eventually happened there, I think is a pretty significant downgrade. I think that, you know, AJ Brown is a legitimate top tier talent, whereas Burke's could be, but I don't know. I don't think his profile really adds up there. I'm not bullish on that happening right away. And then there's obviously been a few hurdles in training camp, some of which have been, you know, overblown. They also lost Roger Saffold up front,

you know, linebacker Rashawn Evans. I think that there's some losses that could hurt them. I mean, already ranked 30th in blown block rate last year and we're like bottom five in pass and run blown block rate. So I'm a little concerned about the offense, to be honest. I'm just concerned about how efficient Tannehill is and like as a whole against like good, good opponents where like their wide receivers aren't going to win. Like who is going to win as their wide receivers on an island? I just don't really foresee,

like I don't think anyone really is able to step into that role immediately here so i we took tan hill under 3 700 yards he barely got over that last year um now derrick henry's there i think we're going to see more of like a try and run as much as they can and you know hopefully constrain together an efficient passing game so i don't know i'm not i'm not really all that excited about the titans this. Yeah, it's a bad offensive line. I think it got worse. They're 24th in pass and block run block win rate last year, starting rules at right tackle and left guard are up for grabs. And it's no surprise, like every quarterback is a little bit worse than with under pressure than they are with a clean pocket. But like the Tannehill gap is significant. It's the fourth worst in the league, according to the DVO way. He's actually on a three year drop in a clean pocket from a DVOA standpoint so that's also just trending in the

worst direction especially considering the drop in talent too Dagan what are your thoughts on Tennessee Tannehill was worst without A.J. Brown and Julio Jones on the field last year he averages five and a half yards per attempt which he did so on 31% of his dropbacks without those two. Also, he has a league-high cap hit this year. And remember, the Titans can actually get out of that if they want to and save roughly $19 million in cap space ahead of his age 35 season next year. I don't think that transition would be to Malik Wills,

who was a bad prospect in itself. But overall, they're probably looking for ways out. Having having said that I would like to be under on their nine and fc's a win total I think that's a safer play but also variable has won at least nine games every year as head coach uh we are expecting regression yes given that they were a number one seed with a negative turnover differential differential but also as Warren Sharp noted, Titans are eight and oh in games and more than seven days rest under Vrabel. And for week seven on, they have three games with over a week to prepare. And two of those are against divisional opponents.

So overall, I think it's a stay away for me. And yeah, I prefer to bet against the Titans, but honestly, Derek Henry, even in not being explosive anymore, the last three seasons, his rate of plays and runs, 10-plus yards, have decreased progressively. Also dependent on a backfield high 30.8 touches per game last year to really get there as well. But honestly, even just being on the field, he makes Tannehill better. He sucks up the defense, thus allowing Tannehill to run more and dump off passes.

We know this team doesn't need a wide receiver one, honestly, to get open. They run their scheme. That's why A.J. Brown was never jammed more than 106 targets in any season. They don't care about getting you the ball. You run this crossing scheme as a variable has laid out, and then the scheme gets you open, not the other way around. So given the rate of targets, Robert Woods earns 10 plus yards downfield and at intermediate level of the field,

given the volatility of Trelon Burks' profile, which could go in either direction, targets robert woods earns 10 plus yards downfield and at the intermediate level of the field given the volatility of trail on burks's profile which could go in either direction he could explode as the next aj brown since that's who he matches he could fail altogether remember he only played 39 snaps against man coverage last year so we even at 6-2-25 have no clue if he can beat man coverage in the nfl uh so overall like i do want to bet against them and i could see it going either way where they sneak in 10 wins or the bottom just falls off completely. And we see them without Tannehill and maybe even Derrick Henry next year. Yeah, both could be gone. I mean, the Henry stuff is tough, right? I mean, we, I think we all agree like historically he's an outlier. It's just an

athletic freak, but like we've seen how this goes. And again, the massive workload that he saw in 2020 was actually about to be demolished last year before he went down. Actually, he had 219 carries through the first eight weeks. It's the most a running back has ever had in eight weeks since the merger in 1966. He was trending to have an incredible workload. And now he's a 20-year-old coming off a Jones fracture with over 1,500 touches the past three years. Yeah.

And you look at some of like the advanced stats on next gen stats around, you know, rushing yards over expected per carry success rate, all those things massively plummeted. It's not a great listen from a podcast standpoint, easier to read, but it was way worse. He also saw about a 10% jump in stack boxes as well.

So teams know that this is just how you're trying to beat us and force Tannehill to make plays to beat you. And they just couldn't really do it partially because guys couldn't stay on the field. You only had AJ Brown and Julio on the field together for 30% of the dropbacks last year. And now they're significantly worse. Again, I like Robert Woods, but we're dealing with a pretty significant knee injury. And Daigle laid out some of the stuff on Trelon Burke. So there were question marks there. So I think defensively, they're going to continue to be strong. I think they made some actually really good changes with this from a scheme standpoint last year. And I think like Bud Dupree barely played last year. I think, you know, he and Harold Landry are a nice edge duo.

Jeffrey Simmons up front. Danico Autry, that's a nice pass rush group. And then they added a lot of draft capital in the last couple of years that's been spent on the secondary. Roger McCreary this year out of Auburn, you know, Kevin Byard is a all pro at safety. They're going to need some stuff out of some of the other guys that they've drafted in the last couple of years,

but I think the defense will be good. Maybe the best, maybe, you know, definitely the best defensive unit, I think in this division, but is it enough? I don't know.

Like they continue to be really good in one score games that tends to regress, but six and two, two two years ago seven and two last year so uh does that eventually come back to the pack when you you know start to regress offensively like i think they're going to schedule middle of the season's a little tough uh weeks nine nine through 13 at kc denver at green bay cincy at philly uh that's a rough stretch where I think they are definitely dogs everywhere, even those home games against Denver and Cincinnati. So it could be a tough spot. I'm kind of with you on the under nine, nine and a half.

So that's kind of how I play the Titans. All right, guys, Jags. I feel like this is our team at four for four. Thanks to Sharp Clark, the Jags. And even last year we had a little bit of Jags life. But 150-1 to win the Super Bowl, 80-1 to win the AFC. They are 6-1 out there. Under, if you like it on DraftKings.

Over, if you like it on FanDuel. They are 8-1 to win this division. That's available on DraftKings. Middle of the pack from a strength of schedule standpoint. And minus 3 on the rest side obvious addition by subtraction here connor with uh the coaching change urban meyer trevor lawrence though is at the end of the day like that's going to be what happens here talk to me about the jacks yeah i mean shout out sharp clark i've just been like banging the drum for like six months now uh got down on plus four and a half week one against Washington.

I tailed him there and I'm looking for some, some alternates, but we can get into that a little bit here. I mean, the off season added Brandon Sherp up front. We have them ranked 15th now in our offensive line rankings. You know, Christian Kirk, defensively, they, they drafted Trayvon Walker, Devin Lloyd signed. How do you say this? Foyasad Ulukun. I think that's, that's about close.

That's good. So I think that, you know, about close. Um, so I think that, you know, like they made a lot of additions. I don't know if they were like good additions, but they made a lot of league average additions, which I think helps kind of ride, like,

you know, raise the floor, I guess for a lot of their, their units. And I think that that's okay for a Jaguars team that legitimately was the, one of the worst units, like in all of football, just across the board.

And a lot of that to do with coaching i think but at the same time now you're kind of cleaning house you're adding some average players and i think you have a player like trevor lawrence uh i'm i'm bullish on him as a prospect i think that he just coming out of college was you know very very talented very accurate um you know and uh in the right system which seems like he is now can really really make strides with the Jaguar so I think that I mean I like would have liked over six six and a half now is a little bit tough but I am taking them you know pretty heavy I'm going to be playing some alts week one against Washington here you know maybe some minus two and a half minus six and a half

minus nine and a half against Washington who I I think could be disastrous with how the reports are coming out of camp. This time last year, we were dealing with a faux QB competition. We were splitting snaps in camp, whichever Lawrence and Gardner Minshew. We were talking about going for 250 passing yards in 250 rushing yards per game.

I ended up finishing dead last in point score in the season. It's got to get better, you would think so it's going to get better than hiring a racist coach at this time last year i know that much uh trevor lawrence after the buy as well that's really where he lost it in his first six games he wasn't that great anyhow uh completion percentage slightly over 60 and just barely getting by, even in fantasy, just 14.8 fantasy points per game. But really after the bye, 5.6 yards per attempt, five touchdowns to nine interceptions,

and that's across 11 full games. Like just zero development under Urban Meyer in that last stretch to close the year. So I would think it's a more prominent offense. They spent a ton of money in their wide receivers room to ensure it's not the same guys even though it could still be like Marvin Jones for instance as their wide receiver three or Zay Jones I guess since they gave him so much money but either way yeah I'm expecting a just a different look off and especially with Travis

Etienne a more explosive player used as a receiver out of the backfield. And that's kind of what I depend on here. I still don't think their defense is even good enough to finish second in this division maybe. But we're just hoping for development from Trevor Lawrence. That's it in my opinion. Yeah, Connor, we took an over on Travis Etienne total yards a while back. I don't know what that's at now. I think it's probably gone.

Yeah, we took it at like 1,000. It's at 1,099 and a lot of sites still a thousand, uh, 25 with some juice on draft Kings. Uh, I mean, I'm just like super bullish on him as a receiver. I think James Robinson's probably will play a little bit on early downs. It seems like he's came, came back and, you know, recovered pretty nicely, but, uh, like, I don't think that like, that doesn't even matter if, if Travis ETN is getting like 600, 700 receiving yards, just like catching the ball a ton out of the backfield. I mean, only a couple hundred rushing yards is no problem for him to hit the over on that prop.

How that translates to fantasy, I don't know. If James Robinson is taking goal line stuff and getting a ton of early down work, I think it's a little bit messier that way. But for our prop of like over 1,000 combined rushing receiving, I think that just his receiving upside is pretty substantial yeah i try to stay away from those running back receiving yard props but i feel like it's going to be one early in the year where they might be a little bit lighter than what maybe we're expecting you know so i don't know it could be opportunities there defensively i'm not sure like you know i think we so we're seeing mike call balls the new

dc uh it was a linebacker in the league for years, spent the last few years as a linebacker coach, was obviously in Philly back in the day when Peterson was there. He worked under Jim Schwartz and then worked the last three years in Tampa with Todd Bowles. Schwartz and Bowles, from like a rusher standpoint, like a blitz rate, like how many guys they blitz with, do things very, so i'm not really sure what to expect uh we saw some stuff in his like opening presser where he talked about wanting to impact the quarterback more so i think that that speaks to why they go out and add trayvon walker at the top of the draft who is very versatile i do think

he's like the ultimate t-shirt and shorts guy where just kind of wild guys with his, his athleticism didn't do a ton from a sack standpoint, Georgia, one of the historic best college defenses ever. But again, like he also could cover in the flat and maybe he's asked to cover, you know, running backs or tight ends. And I do think there's a lot of talent there. So again, if he's able to rush the quarterback, he and Josh Allen make for a nice duo. So, you know, as they go set, I think there's upside here. I think the cornerback room is okay. Like Shaq Griffin, Tyson Campbell are okay.

They added Darius Williams from the Rams. Like none of them are really QB ones, but I think they're all okay. Again, they were 31st in EPA per pass allowed last season. So there's really only room to get better, especially if they get pass rush up front, that should help. So, and from like a turnover standpoint, they should be better. They had the worst fumble recovery rate in the league last year, just 32%.

They caused eight fumbles defensively, all season long, recovered two of them. I mean, that's wild to be like, just turnovers just happen. You cause them, they happen. So recover two fumbles defensively all season, knowing how much your quarterback turned it over. Just, again, you're such a deficit just to start. So- That's just a lack of grit right there. No grit. two fumbles defensively all season knowing how much your quarterback turned it over just again

you're such a deficit just to start so that's just a lack of grit right there no grit no grit you would think that urban wire if we would have done anything would have like installed grits uh but did not did not happen in the end so there's some winnable games on the schedule i mean week one we talked about end of the year is actually pretty soft for the last six of those around the road but like i don't know if they are well, maybe they can get some of those games and we'll see. Optimism on the Jag side. I'm kind of with Connor though. Like six would be fine because then I feel like I'm still open to a push.

Getting to seven feels a little rich, but it may be a game by game thing. All right. We'll bring it up the rear with the Texans. 300 to one to win the whole thing. 300-1 to win the whole thing. 150-1 to win the AFC. 4.5 is the win total number. There's an over on DraftKings at plus 100, and unders available on FanDuel at just minus 110.

They are 30-1 to win the division. They have, shockingly, despite being terrible last year, the fifth most difficult schedule in the league, and the rest is a problem. Ten-game rest disadvantage. They have three road games this season against teams coming off of a bye. Vegas, the Giants, and Miami. They are the only team in the league to face three teams coming off of a bye,

and they are all on the road. That sucks. Dave, you'll start talking to me about the Texans. Nick Casario has also had two off seasons now to run the organization since 2021 and has only handed out one contract that's at least three years long. Everyone else has only been extended for two years. So I have no idea what the exact plan is here. But Davis Mills was good enough with a a 68 completion rate and 7.3

yards per attempt in his last five starts to earn another nod here uh we'll have brandon cooks and nico collins for what we assume will be a full season and so there is a little bit of faith in their offense but really the story is their defense and genuinely having no faith whatsoever and just not taking them seriously yeah Yeah, Connor, they went and hired a 85-year-old defensive coordinator, Lovie Smith, promoted him to head coach since they couldn't land into the other guys that they wanted.

They didn't want to violate the Rooney rule and hired Josh McConnell like everyone knew they wanted to do. So David Culley got cans. At least they moved on from the Sean Watson drama, which I guess is a thing. And I know Davis Mills is still going to, Davis Mills is still going to be available for you to, to short here.

So what are your thoughts on the Texans? The fact that Lovie Smith ended up as at any head coach or any coach in the NFL after a stint at U of I, and then ended up being a head coach is just like pathetic. I mean, he was downright abysmal at, you know, University of Illinois, which is just like, I mean, that is embarrassing. Like you can't as a former NFL head coach who coached a great Bears defense at one time in his career, couldn't even put together like a couple wins in the Big Ten. Just pathetic.

But regardless, Davis Mills, you know, like we, I took like every under for like, you know, five, six weeks and was rewarded pretty handsomely. But then, you know, once he kind of came out of the buy and started playing against some, some easier teams, he played really well. So we look at like who he's playing before, like right when he started, he played against Carolina before the JC horn injury. So like they were a good secondary the first couple of weeks. Then they played Buffalo, New England, the Rams, the Colts, like played against just

like really top half or like top tier secondaries there. And then, you know, afterwards he played against a lot softer schedule, at least like, you know, average, some tougher teams, some, some bad teams have played really well. So I think that not necessarily that that's key, but just that it was like key to his growth that like he was able to at least perform at an NFL level against some defenses where the first few games, I mean, he did not look like he was going to be around very long. Um, but that being said, I I'm confident enough from what we saw that I think that the offense should be at least interesting, uh, in some games. Um, Texans right now favored in zero games this season and look headlines, uh, the only team in the NFL, which is pretty sad. But that being said, we're going to, we're going to go ahead to a little

look line, look headline here. They get to play my Chicago bears here and they are three point underdogs on the road in Chicago. Uh, I'm taking the plus three. I'm taking a little, little look at action here. They're, they're as good as the bears. I'm not going to lie. I mean, they're as good as the bears and I'm, I got to put my money where my mouth is a little look at headline action when the Bears get skunked for like two to three weeks and the Texans kind of hang in there week one against the Colts uh you know and only lose by a field goal uh you know I think that it'll end up being like two and a half or one get a little half point of closing line value and just another reason to root against Chicago the Bears can't win that one I'm feeling really good about our alt under five and

a half on the Bears because that definitely feels like one that bears fans they need to are you know penciling in is a home game against the texans so yeah i don't hate it though i i do think that like they're not they don't have like uh a bears level bad unit anywhere to be honest like they're kind of not great everywhere but like kind of fine like the offensive line could be okay i think the defense could be better the secondary is still pretty bad but like you know derrick stingley jr comes in and that can make things a little bit better um stephen nelson comes over from the eagles actually the slot corner um tavari thomas was really good last year he's actually one of the best from his

success rate allowed standpoints so like he could be interesting um i don't know they added like jerry hughes and mario addison up front like both are like 35 years old and this is not like a massive rebuilding team like you would think of just a bunch of young guys but maybe because that's tangle pointed out like they have a bunch of guys on two-year deals so that allows them to maybe turn out of this a little bit. So like if Jalen Petrie is good, if Stingley is good, you know, they added, you know, Kenyon Green in the offensive line. He's pretty versatile.

They didn't have Larry, Larry Metunsel last year. They're going to be able to kick out, you know, the other guy. Was it, I can't think of his name. Oh, Tyus Howard. He's going to be able to go back to tackle guard from tackle. Like he's actually graded out way better at tackle than he has his career at guard. So I don't know.

They're shifting a little bit. I'm optimistic about the Texans being not as bad as maybe the Bears, so I don't hate that at all, Connor. I mean, their schedule is really tough, though. But on paper, though, because obviously Chicago 6.5 win total, Texans 4.5 win total. That's because the Bears are playing four or five teams like the Texans caliber, whereas the Texans do not get many at all.

But on paper, I mean, the Bears might be worse than the Texans. I mean, it is close. It is very close. The three straight teams against the bye on the road is is really really really really rough so we'll see i mean i think they're going to be some things that are going to be better than last year but again it feels like it's just lovey holding it down for one year they can do the rooney rule thing in the right way and then give it to josh mccown we'll see i guess he'll get a shot to at least see what they got in Davis Mills to see if they need to move forward.

He was really at check down Charlie, though, as good as he was in the second half. Like only Big Ben and Jerry Goff threw at a higher rate of passes, 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. So it was a lot of stuff really close and conservative. And we'll see. Again, I don't know that I would lean strongly on an over four and a half. They're not favored to win any game, but it could be okay.

They could be a team that you wouldn't mind taking the points a bunch of times a season so because no one likes to bet on the texans you don't feel good about turning in your lock of the week or your card in the super contest and the texans are on it but uh maybe that gives us some opportunities against the market early in the season so yeah sharp sharp clark took uh texans plus eight uh week one against at home against the Colts, which I don't mind because I like the Colts, but I don't know. It's not bad. I mean, them losing by a touchdown, I think, is certainly in the range of outcomes.

We know Darius Shaq Leonard is going to be out for that one, so who knows? We'll see. All right, Daigle, best bet here, buddy. Gosh, I don't want to bet on anything. Yeah, I get it, man. I, I don't want to bet on anything. Yeah, I get it, man. I think this is the worst division in football.

I guess Colts to win the division, even laying the juice. I'm confident enough in the lack of confidence in the other three teams. We'll go with a – not choosing my Texans look headline. We'll go with Travis Etienne we'll do go with the over that we talked about it uh it's still available at 1025 rushing receiving i think that that's one of like the only plays left that we played in our 25 futures so far at four before that's still within like 50 yards of what we played it at yeah it's a good look still uh i'll go again i don't love laying 135 here but i'll take titans under nine and a half

on fan duel i just think there's there's a chance that the floor really falls out of this offense the defense is pretty good but floor falling out of this offense is is really problematic and if we get to a spot where we are forced to see malik willis who you know tagle gave his not so ringing endorsement on i think is from a first-year standpoint, that could be a problem here. Traylon Burke's stuff is really interesting. The depth behind Burke's in Woods is not great. So then again, some of the stuff we saw with Derrick Henry,

just the volume is going to catch up to the big dog eventually. Not Tom Brady. When you're running back, there's definitely a demarcation standpoint from an age and carry thing that can come up on you fast, and that could happen real soon on Derrick Henry. So that would be my way to bet against the Titans. So, all right, gentlemen, that's 41 minutes in the books.

I spent five minutes talking about a tool at the top. That is a record show for us this week. That is AFC South. Not many times we want to talk about you again moving forward this offseason. So we'll be back to wrap up the final one. NFC South could be a little similar, but maybe a little bit more interesting on that side. So for Connor and Dagle, I'm Ryan.

We'll see you all soon. Thanks, everybody. Yeah! Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha. Outro Music