Move The Line - 2022 March Madness Best Bets And Predictions

Episode Date: March 17, 2022

Move The Line hosts Connor Allen and Mike Randle share their favorite #MarchMadness bets, some teams they're into as live underdogs, and best futures bets for the 2022 NCAA Tournament.Topics Discussed(0:00) Intro(1:57) Live Underdog Bets(23:36) TeamRankings AD (24:10) Favorite Tournament Bets(37:39) Best Futures Bets (41:29) OutroHosts: Connor Allen, Mike Randle, Andy Molitor.Follow Us On:TwitterFacebookYouTubeDiscord Email: [e-mail] to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansMaximize Your Edge With TeamRankings' Customized Brackets 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3q7cN6BFollow TeamRankings on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/TeamRankings4for4 NCAA Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3JfPkYG

Welcome in to the 4 for 4 move the line college basketball March Madness preview show. I'm Mike Randall. Follow me on Twitter at Randall Rant and I am here of course with the legend you know him Connor Allen the sports betting manager here at 4 for 4 football. You can find him on Twitter at Randall Rant. And I am here, of course, with the legend. You know him, Connor Allen, the sports betting manager here at 444 Football. You can find him on Twitter at Connor Allen NFL. Connor, it's time. We had two games last night. We have two games tonight. And then it all gets going tomorrow, man. How you doing? I'm good. I'm just I just got to say, though, that was quite an intro. You bring so much energy uh i mean like it was like i listened to the episode last night and it was almost like a disgrace at how monotone i was compared to this so we might have to scrub that episode from move the line history and then just

kind of maybe reinsert this uh intro into yesterday's show because yikes but anyways i'm doing well uh excited about some more college basketball and you know get to it here i think we got a good good show ahead we got a lot going to talk some live underdogs some of our favorite bets as well some future so should be able to touch on pretty much everything we like yeah we got some great stuff here for everyone and listen guys Connor's being too kind because of course he comes on drops a NCAA prop with Graham Ekay and hits it right off the bat and when Graham Ekay got those two fouls which hurt my cover for Wyoming, I just said, just like Seinfeld with Newman,

I said, Connor is exactly what I said. So we hit that one, folks. So he knows exactly what he's talking about. He's playing possum. What we're going to do is we'll go through live underdogs, favorite bets, and futures here. Games lined up on Thursday and Friday. So we have some from each one of these

heading into tomorrow and Friday to give you a preview. So Connor, let's kick it off here. Let's start with the West bracket here. Maybe with some picks that you like from the West bracket, live underdogs, games that you like. What do you think here? Let's start with that. Who are you thinking could be an upset? I like the West bracket. I think it is the blow up bracket. A lot of people have said they think it's going to be chalk because Gonzaga's in it. I do not think so. I think this is a rough road for Gonzaga, and there's a lot of games with some frisky betting action going on there. So where do you want to start here in the West bracket? Yeah, I think that there's a few different places here. I mean, we have a Boise State team against Memphis now getting plus three and a half at some spots,

plus three points. I mean, I think that they're, they're pretty much neck and neck. I'm not really sure entirely why this isn't just like a coin flip in most metrics here. We're looking at them. They're actually one spot lower and can probably adjust the deficiency margin, you know, in their like model, like simulation, they have Memphis winning by one point. So I think that they're more than, you know, right for like a, I guess an upset there potentially. I don't know.

What do you think about that game? Connor, I agree. I'm flag-planting this one. I think the public has it wrong. I think Memphis is a sexy team. They saw them play real well. They were athletic, of course, in the AAC tournament, but that doesn't necessarily mean that's a great conference tournament for them.

They turned the ball over a ton. And there's rumor that Imani Bates may play in this game. So there's now talk about that. And the line is shifting. People just don't respect Boise State. I will tell you what Boise State is. They are an athletic lockdown team on defense that won a very good Mountain West conference here. Just because Wyoming didn't play well.

I heard Chris Russo today bashing the Mountain West because Wyoming didn't play well. I don't think so. They are great on the boards. They're going to battle on the defensive boards. The only thing I'm worried about with them, Connors, is that free throw shooting. Broncos only shooting 65% from the free throw line, but they can score it. They can shoot it. And if the game comes down to a close last second play, you have Memphis, who's not great

at the foul line, and you have Marcus Shaver for Boise State, who's hit big shot after big shot for them. They had some tremendous wins. San Diego State, they beat twice this year, three times if you include the conference tournament. So I think they have it wrong. I love Boise State with these points here. I think Memphis is the pretty girl with the curls, and everybody likes to hear Penny in this.

I think Boise State may not be exciting to you. I think they're going to win the game outright no i like that for sure i mean right now you said free throw shooting they're 346th in the country uh i mean hit the gym boys you know kind of you know get your focus right because that is really really rough another one if you want to look in the west here let's talk talk about Vermont and Arkansas. Arkansas is a team, you know, there's always these teams, man. I remember when they had a Kate Cunningham for Oklahoma state and Illinois was a team I liked last year. And then there's Loyola Chicago. And I said, why are they all in the same exact region? I really liked when we were coming into this Arkansas. I just do not like this matchup. People are going to think Vermont is Vermont. They think back to TJ Sorrentine and Taylor Coppenrath when they hit that big three

in the early 2000s against Syracuse and upset them. I think it was a 13 versus four. And the last couple of years, Vermont has been close in the tournament. Purdue, they were winning late in the second half. Florida State, they were winning late in the second half. But what they've done, Connor, to me is they've won big games by large margins. They're coming in winning 21 of 22. Only game they lost was Hartford away in overtime, and they didn't have Ryan Davis, who was this year and last year's America East player of the year, the big man inside. He was not available for that game. But they have a non-conference win over Northern Iowa, which is not easy. App State is not easy. I like Vermont here. The line has dropped from six and a half now to five. Maybe it's gone too far.

What do you think? Yeah, I think it's pretty close to being a potential play on Arkansas. But I think that, I mean, for the points you made here, I think Vermont is interesting as like a live underdog to win outright. Effective field goal percentage, which essentially, are they taking good shots? Third in the country. They don't turn the ball over much. 16th in the country. Two point percentage is third in the

country at 58%. So, I mean, they take good shots. They make them. They don't turn the ball over. I mean, those are symbols of a good team there. So, you know, I think that they're very much alive. I remember when I was watching Middle Tennessee State against Michigan State with Giddy Potts, and there are some times, man, you watch these games, and you know in the first couple minutes this is going to be a problem. And I texted my brother-in-law. I got big points from my brother-in-law for that one, saying you've got to get to a TV.

Michigan State's in a lot of trouble. And they were the odds-on favorites to win the tournament. In this game, if Arkansas is making threes, it's going to be a problem for Vermont because that's the one weak area. Vermont, with the help and recover defense, is going to allow three-pointers. And this year, Arkansas only shooting 30.7%. That's 313th in the country. If for some reason they get hot and J.D. Notte gets hot,

then you know what? It's a bad pick. But assuming we just get average, we just get mediocre production here, I think Vermont's right in this game because they're a good defensive rebounding team also. Yeah, no, absolutely. I totally agree. So that could be a good live bet situation for sure. A hundred percent. Anything else? Let's see in the West here that you like, you know, Connecticut, New Mexico state doesn't do much. What about David? You know, Davidson is at this point, a two point underdog to Michigan

state. Anything else you see here in the West? Yeah, that's a really tough one. I think that I kind of lean Davidson. I've been filling out some brackets. I lean towards them. But that's more from a bracket perspective, I guess, like from a betting perspective. I think it's probably just a stay away from me unless you are really wanting some action and kind of want like a plus money, like money line underdog there.

Interesting thing, folks, to think about from a betting perspective. Ten seeds actually have a better winning percentage against two seeds than they do in the original game against sevens. Every time tens have moved on, they have a higher winning percentage if they're playing the two seed than when they beat the seven there. It's crazy. Yeah, it's crazy. Other first round from any bracket, really, live underdogs that you see.

The one that jumped out at me, because, of course, Connor, we're always going to look for the team that's the higher seed, that's an underdog, which makes me worry. Listen, Colorado State, it was nice to see today. I grabbed it. It was Michigan in the south as the 11 seed, minus three, because they're the big school, of course, and last year had success. Over the six seed Colorado State.

It was three. I think it's down to one now at most books. And there were some travel issues with Colorado State, I believe, right? Yeah, there were some travel issues. Like they were like the last team to figure out where they were playing, you know, when they were playing and like the kind of like just that whole situation seemed like a disaster. Basically, the most teams that already started traveling, they didn't even know where they were going. So not to mention, too, I mean,

they're playing the early game. They have to travel. Like, you know, they're kind of like, we've seen it in the NFL. We talk about it, like the circadian rhythms and body clocks of players aren't used to playing at certain times. I mean, honestly, that's the only reason I'm not hammering Colorado State is because solely because of that. I think that all the other factors point towards them. You know, Michigan's missing a key player. I think that they're probably still the right bet, but I guess kind of the travel concerns, which we see, I mean, time over time in the NFL where just they tend to actually matter.

And I don't think we really quantify why, but I think we still do see it from time pretty much every year, actually. A team will just go travel across the coast and inexplicably lose in an early game. Yeah, that's very, very true. I I'm still on Colorado state. I've liked them. I liked them last year. They didn't get in the tournament. Disappointed me, David Roddy, the chemistry, the three point shooting Nico Medved. I'm all over them. I have not been impressed with Michigan. A lot of people saying they're going to rally here to get Juwan Howard so he doesn't get fired if they end up having an early exit. Not into it there at all.

Another game I'm looking at, and this comes up right away. Listen, we have seen, Connor, time and time again, that the playing team always gets hot. Right as soon as these brackets came out, there were two things that jumped out to me. Number one, I thought Miami was under-seeded as a 10 seed, and I thought St. Mary's was way over-seeded as a 5 seed. A 5 seed for St. Mary's?

I understand they beat Gonzaga. I get it. That's their thing. But there's familiarity in the conference, and there's rivalries in the conference. And how many times do we see a team that's really great struggle with a lower team in their conference because of familiarity? It's St. Mary's.

It's Randy Bennett. They have four quad one win St. Mary's and they all came in the West Coast Conference. So we're so sure about that. I don't think so. I have Indiana, I believe right now is a three point underdog. They have the play in game, which every year, except for 2019, that team has won more than one game. Trace Jackson Davis looked great.

Matthias Toss is going to have to deal with him. There's not a lot of great bigs in the West Coast Conference. I like Indiana here getting three against St. Mary's. I really do. Yeah, no, I think that that's a good look for sure. I think that you can get to the plus three. I think they're very much live on the money line, like you said, for, I mean, basically everything you outlined here.

Not to mention, I think that, you know, the conference they play in, as you noted, like obviously, I think Gonzaga kind of actually boosts the adjustments within that conference, as well as the Dons, you know, San Francisco. So, like, it's, you know, both of those teams kind of boost the adjustments, whereas, like, the rest of their conference, like, was it really that good? You know, I think that there's some questions about that. So, you know, in Ken Palm's metrics and a lot of adjusted efficiency metrics, they obviously get a lot of love because of those adjustments. But in reality,

I'm not really quite as sure that they're that good. I think there's also similar concerns about the big 10, but I think, I mean, this Indiana team has been more than frisky with big 10 teams who are a lot better than them overall. So I think that the money line bet there is very alive. Staying in the South.

Another game that sort of jumped out me right away. Listen, I'm in New Jersey. So of course, you know, Seton hall, I see them time and time again. Rutgers as well.

I think TCU is ready to handle everything that Seton Hall can bring. Seton Hall is favored by, I believe, one at this point, so this is not a huge underdog. I understand that. But TCU, big team, great on defense. Top 20 defense inside. They're great on the offensive boards. Number one in the country in offensive boards.

Love what Jamie Dixon has done. And any team, Connor, to me, that during the year in the Big 12, late in the year, February 26th and March 1st, has defeated Texas Tech and Kansas back-to-back, absolutely gets my attention. They then played Kansas again away in a true road game, in a game that Kansas had to have. Remember, if Kansas didn't win that game,

they may not have won the Big 12. And in a game that was critical, where they had just beaten Kansas by 10 at home, and you were going to get the Jayhawks' best effort in Fog Allen, they only lost by four. So I like TCU against Seton Hall here too. What do you think? Yeah, it's pretty crazy how similarly statistically these teams profile. So TCU 24th in adjusted efficiency, defensively, Seton Hall 27th.

Offensively, TCU 78th, Seton Hall 76th. I mean, it is pretty much neck and neck there for adjusted efficiency. I think it's relatively a coin flip on paper, but as you mentioned, a lot of the other factors there, you know, have me leaning as well towards TCU. The one real popular upset staying in the South that I'm not sure about at this point is this Houston-UAB game. I love UAB. Jordan, Peanut Butter and Jelly Walker, 20 points per game, over 40% from three-point range. Houston likes to grind it out. My gut says that UAB is a similar team to Memphis. I feel like they play a similar style and that Houston may be ready. My gut reaction is UAB covers, but Houston wins. Is that what you're thinking? Am I on the right path there? Because it's so popular now, I'm kind of going away from it. I know. So, I mean, I'll be honest. Originally when it opened,

it opened at seven and a half on FanDuel. I did take Houston just because of how well, like statistically rounded they are. I mean, they're the fourth overall team in adjusted efficiency margin by Kempom. They're top 10 in both offense and defense. UAB, well, I think they're really good. They're an underrated 12 seed for sure. I just think that Houston is, you know, also very good. And like just the most, one of the most underseeded teams in recent history. And so for me, it was tough for me to shy away there, but I think it'll be close.

I wouldn't probably play it at eight and a half. I probably wouldn't play it at nine or anything, but I think that there is certainly a chance of them blowing them out. Just because also you look at kind of like the battle tests that they're like UAB, you know, played in conference USA, you know, like just there, they were not very strong skip straight to schedule wise. So I think that Houston probably is still my lean, but I get it. I do get the UAB love because they are a good team.

My, my default strategy for March madness, because we love it. I watch it all year. We analyze the lines, is dance with who brung you. Now, I have watched Illinois and put out on social media every time I watch Illinois. And this is interesting because this game is right next to Houston UAB. So now we're going to talk Illinois Chattanooga right back to back to each other with some live underdogs. Every time I watch Illinois say, I'm just not that impressed. I mean, almost every single game they've disappointed here. So now they're going up against a Chattanooga team. And usually in the first round, I shy away from teams with quality bigs because I think they're sort of, it's another obstacle for a lower, smaller mid-major to overcome that dominant big. It's why North Carolina rarely got upset in the early rounds because they could always go inside a Hansborough Zeller or somebody like that. But Chattanooga does have Silvio D'Souza, who is a five-star recruit,

goes to Kansas, the whole thing with the chair. Okay. And now he leaves and he goes to Chattanooga. So they have a big inside who can match. They defend the three very well. Chattanooga, they're great inside the arc. They're great from the free throw line. They beat VCU. I think Chattanooga is a live underdog here against an Illinois team that I think is a sort of underachiever. You're really not played that well. Yeah, no, I think that's a good call. I mean, basically Illinois is just like, I don't know. I think that they're actually, as we've seen,

Ayo DeSumo transition to the NBA. I mean, I think that we've kind of come to the conclusion that he was a massively underrated player. And I think we all knew he was good in college. I was a big fan, but we've seen his transition to the NBA. He's just an assist machine. And so I think that they're missing him a little bit. Kofi is obviously really strong, but as you mentioned, I think that they can match up pretty well against them. I think that either Chattanooga upsets them or potentially Houston.

And then I do like Houston to beat them in the next round. If as long as Houston advances. I agree with you. If you get the Houston UAB game, right. I think you're getting to a sweet 16. If that game is right. I think you're moving forward.

Cause this could be a first round upset, but I just don't like Illinois. I don't know what it is. It's just, you know, Corbello with the turnovers. He was injured to begin the year. Just don't like it.

A couple of this year before we get to the favorite bets. Iowa State, LSU. Man, I don't like the change of coaches, the bad mojo. I feel like an LSU first half line would be good here because they get out. But Iowa State all year has just grinded teams down. TJ Alseberger, this team was picked last in the Big 12 in the preseason poll. He ends up 7-11 in the conference, 2011 overall, but honestly has been competitive in almost every single one of their games.

One point loss away at Kansas. Five point loss at home to Baylor. Has played real well. Seven point loss away to Baylor on March 5th. So they control pace. They get the tempo. I love the under. I think it's dropped now a couple points,

but it's about four. Is it four now? Four, four and a half. I'm definitely going with Iowa State. I can't put LSU, great defensive team, tremendous defensive team, shaky on offense. Coach not there anymore, Will Wade. I feel like Osselberger gets this team across the line at the end.

And don't forget, early in the year, they did beat a Memphis team, which was rolling at that time, by 19 points there in the preseason tournament back on Thanksgiving. Yeah, I think that this matchup is super interesting because also, you mentioned LSU's defense, fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Iowa State, 10th. It's not that far off. Iowa State's offense is the bigger issue. constituency iowa state 10th i mean like it's not that far off uh you know and uh iowa state's offense i think is the biggest bigger issue you're 151st and adjusted offense uh while lsu 89th um and but i think the biggest factor you mentioned is the coach like it just presents a very volatile situation i don't think that we know uh you know how players react i think it's totally different team by team uh it would not surprise me the least bit for this team to make a little bit of a run. It would also not surprise me for them to just lay over, lay down, roll over, and just like they don't care because they're not with the right coaching

staff that's going to be there next year. So I think that there's a lot of different outcomes here. If you get resistance in this game, I think if it's late in the second half, they're going to execute. Iowa State, not great from the free throw line, 68%. LSU, 73% of the season, but in conference, more effective, 69%. And they also have the highest offensive turnover percentage in the SEC LSU. I just think a disciplined team, which is what Iowa State is, that is better coached, is going to take advantage. Going down to the bottom here, maybe, listen, I'm the only person on Miami. I haven't seen a lot of Miami hurricane love out there for March Madness. I think they're underseated. Miami went on the

road and I understand the ACC is down. So people are saying maybe Miami's inflated. I feel the same way about Notre Dame too, to a certain extent. Miami won at Duke when Duke was playing well. They won at Wake Forest, who's absolutely destroying tonight, Towson at home. And they won on the road at Virginia Tech. Never easy. Virginia Tech won the ACC tournament here. So I like Miami against USC. Contrast in styles.

USC is huge inside. One of the tallest teams in the country. But Miami has those guards. They shoot the three. Cam Magusti, veteran guard. And of course, Jim Laranega of George Mason fame on the sideline here. I kind of like Miami. I think they're going to be a problem. Yeah, that's fair. This is a game

that I actually have a little bit of difficulty handicapping because I know a lot of sharp people on both sides. But as you mentioned, I mean, Miami 17th offensively in adjusted offensive efficiency. You know, they shoot good shots. They don't turn the ball over much. Like it's, it is a tough team to fade. So I go back and forth on it, but I can definitely see the appeal. You know, one of the teams in the Midwest, we'll stay in the Midwest here. That is really, really attractive to a lot of people is Iowa. Okay. Iowa now is up to minus 10 and a half. They're getting money. A lot of people putting them in the final four. I see coming out of this bracket, you know, beating Kansas, et cetera.

What do you think here about Richmond going against Iowa? Richmond, I love Richmond. Jacob Gilliard, we talked to on our podcast earlier in the year, great kid, all came back, wanted to win a title. They were dead and buried against Dayton. Malachi Smith, freshman point guard, goes out of the game at the end of the first half with an injury. Here comes Richmond, even in that game against Davidson. They chip away, they chip away. Now they're going to have to really get ready for an Iowa team that's strong, but doesn't have a big inside presence. So where do you go here, Richmond and Iowa? Yeah, I think that it's tough because Iowa, again, like last year, kind of profiles as a team that could run into some issues here that, you know, they're very strong offensively. You know, that's, that's obviously a good thing, but at the same time, their defense

is so bad in a lot of metrics here. And I think that that's, you know, kind's obviously a good thing. But at the same time, their defense is so bad in a lot of metrics here. And I think that that's, you know, kind of where they're going to run into some issues. And that's something that we see over and over again is that teams who are, you know, inside the top 10 in offense, but like outside the top 50, 60 in defense, they run into a team that gets hot. And they're going to have to go toe-to-toe with them. And, like, they kind of run into that issue of just because they didn't play good defense in the Big Ten, like, doesn't mean that they get to be adjusted and get, like, good defense, you know, all of a sudden. Like, even 70, I think that's actually overrated for what their defense is. They're probably outside the top 100.

And so you're looking at a team there that I think is pretty ripe for an upset, again, even though their offense is good. So I think it's tough for me to back Richmond fully in the outright, but I think that they're a good – would not surprise me at all to see them win. And the last one we'll get to here, live underdogs, Vatek versus Texas. I think Chris Beard has done a fine job in his first year down in Texas, but I think he's running into some of the stuff that Shaka saw, which is he brought all these transfers

in and now the cohesion has been a problem. Look, Marcus Carr came over from Minnesota. Marcus Carr was a 20 point per game score at Minnesota. Now he goes down to Texas and he struggled. And when they lost to TCU, the aforementioned TCU there in the big 12 tournament, he called out Chris Beard. He called out Marcus Carr and Timmy Allen and said they don't know how to win. They have to learn how to win. They think they do, but they don't. Trey Mitchell left the program, the big man inside, 6'9", versatile big from UMass.

He's gone. So we have a Texas team that's lost three games in a row, Baylor-Kansas TCU. Beard calls out his two players who have underachieved all year. Trey Mitchell left the program, probably gone. And here comes Virginia Tech, Connor, who's the total opposite. Mike Young, diagramming offense, runs through the ACC tournament, ruins Coach K's ACC tournament. Hunter Couture just made another 10 threes while we were talking here. I think this is a Virginia Tech game.

What do you think? Yeah, I totally agree. I think that I have Virginia Tech advancing in all my brackets. I think that they're very live here. I mean, they're like plus ones. You're basically just getting a pick-em essentially on the money line if you want to play that. I think that they win there, and I think that actually you're looking

at some potential for some alt lines being interesting here. I think that there's actually a few games here that we've, we've mentioned in some of my favorite bets as well. Like these close spreads, basketball is a super volatile game. Like you're, if you're able to catch like a, you know, minus four, minus five, minus six at like plus 200 or more. I think that this is very much in play for Virginia tech team. And as you mentioned, they, they profile well statistically they're hot,

you know, meeting against a team that, I mean, it's ice cold in a lot of factors like, you know, internally and a team that, I mean, is ice cold in a lot of factors, like, you know, internally and externally. So I think that this is a great spot for them. We're being sponsored tonight, folks. Don't forget teamrankings.com. Jason List came on last night, did an outstanding job, giving you some concrete, actionable ways to win your bracket,

small pools, large pools. If you go to teamrankings.com backslash 444, you get 15% off of their bracket picks, and their insight is invaluable. Picked up a lot of things myself when I'm filling out all my brackets there. So sponsored tonight, teamrankings.com, teamrankings.com backslash 444, 15% off the bracket picks. You got to check it out here as you get everything finalized for tomorrow morning. Now let's go, Connor, to our favorite bets. And I'll start off here because I mentioned this one already. I'm flag planning on Boise State. They are a defensive problem. They don't

have sex appeal. People don't. There's this East Coast bias that exists. Wyoming, they're going to say, oh, Wyoming, perfect example of why the Mountain West is overrated. They're not. This is a quality defensive team. They can switch all over the place. Really solid coaching in Leon Rice and a big shot maker in Shaver. I don't like them against an undisciplined Memphis team. I think if Bates comes back, it's an absolute disaster. You wreck their chemistry. They were dominant against Houston, but they got blasted by Houston.

This is the same type of team. And I think, Connor, they may not win, but they play Gonzaga Boise state. They're their exact type of team that can really cause some problems. So I'm going to start here with my favorites. I am flag planning on Boise state plus three and a half. Wow. I mean, I like the boldness here. It seems like you are just massively fading like the public. It seems like everyone and their mothers likes Memphis. You know what I mean? I mean, they just have, yeah, they have all the swag and, you know, everyone loves them, I just think. And so at least that's what I've heard.

I haven't really heard much Boise State love. So I like you going out on a limb here, and I like you kind of fading the public. I think it's a good start. You know, one of the games I can't figure out, so I want to hear what you have to say about it. This Loyola-Chicago-Ohio State game, Loyola-Chicago, the Darlings, certainly Sister Jean, all that stuff, goingola Chicago Ohio State game Loyola Chicago the darlings certainly sister Jean all that stuff going against an Ohio State team now rivalry there a little bit between them they got a new coach here in Valentine who's really continued it's a veteran team on Loyola I can't

get a read on it here because EJ Liddell is so dominant for Ohio State but they haven't played great but Chris Holtman of course an excellent too. So tell me what you think here, Loyola, Ohio State. Yeah, I mean, so my biggest take on Ohio State is I just don't think that they're good enough defensively to match up with Loyola offensively here. So we talked about this before with Iowa, right? So adjusted defense, Ohio State, 130th, right? So that's adjusted for playing in the Big Ten. Raw defensive efficiency, they're in the 200s

they're 230th so again if we kind of go along with that theory if they're not playing good defense in the big 10 and now they're catching a team like loyola which is plays very strong offense you know they shoot good shots they are very good at scheming open shots i i just think that unless they're having an ice cold shooting night they're going to get a ton of open looks unless they're having an ice cold shootingld shooting night, they're going to get a ton of open looks. Unless they're having an ice-cold shooting night, I think that Loyola here is the way to go. Obviously, the one caveat is that Ohio State's offense is very good. So they can go toe-to-toe with them.

I think that the over is in play here as well for that exact reason. But I'm more confident in Loyola's offense executing and then maybe defense coming up a little bit clutch there towards the end. Because, I mean, they're in the 40s defensively, you know, adjusted. And I think that that's a little bit more reputable than 130th and 230th raw. I already talked about the playing game always gets hot, and I think it's going to be Indiana who gets hot against an underseeded,

a totally overseeded St. Mary's team. I just don't like that team. I don't like what they have to slow. They have to play a specific pace. Indiana is going to have the advantage of playing and playing well against Wyoming here. So I'm rolling with them. Another one that I was just happy about,

sometimes the news breaks against you and sometimes it breaks for you. I'm going to go here to Murray State. The Racers are just a fantastic season, 30-2, solid on both sides of the ball. Sometimes when you have like a John Morant, Connor, and they end up leaving and they come back, they end up playing better because they've learned how to win from a player like him. And that's exactly what's happened here. They are playing San Francisco. San Francisco finds out today, Johan Masowski, which was a senior forward for them. He's averaging

about 10 points per game. Really critical guy, especially inside for a team that's not great on the interior. He is going to be out. He's missing this game, which was interesting because Todd Golden said before the Gonzaga game, if they beat BYU in the West Coast Conference tournament, he said, oh, he could have played. We just held them out. Class coach speak. He is out. I think that's a big, big difference. I don't know where the line is now. It was Murray State minus one. I think it could be closer to two right now, but that's a big difference.

San Francisco, solid at defending the three, not great from the free throw line and not great on defense. They're now going to have to battle inside KJ Williams. 6'10 is an absolute beast inside. Strong rebounding, double-double machine, and this is a team that shoots well from the interior and is great on the offensive boards. I liked him before. I like him a lot now here for Murray State. Yeah, this is a big bummer for me. I actually received a message from a friend inside the

organization saying that he was out earlier in the day. I was originally on the Dons and I'm backing off, but I know that, you know, just with some knowledge of their inner workings of the organization, they love analytics. They utilize it to game plan. They are a strong, you know, analytical organization. I mean, they've seen a meteoric rise in the last few years from basically being no ones to, you know, being relevant essentially in the conference.

And so, you know, obviously I thought, I like them against a team that Murray State, obviously they have some, you know, being relevant essentially in the conference. And so, you know, obviously I thought I liked them against a team that Murray State, obviously they have some, you know, big players, they have some good players, but at the same time, Murray State beaten just, they played just two top hundred teams in their run, their winning streak. So that is my only concern. You know, obviously those people are still confident inside of San Francisco that they can win. I mean, obviously you're not going to think you're going to lose.

But for me, I would probably lean towards Murray State at this point. But I still do think that there's an outside chance. I'm just not sure that Murray State has seen – I mean, they've seen a caliber team of San Francisco, but I think that they're a notch ahead of what they've been playing for the last two-ish months. Yeah, very, very fair. Some other favorites I like here.

One of them we share, so we'll talk about in a minute. I thought that all the one seeds to me were a little bit low. These lines, they started to creep up. Connor, Baylor, I know they're missing LJ Cryer. He's not going to play the opening weekend. That zone is going to be a problem. 20 and a half, whatever, it's 21. Baylor is the type of team that wins their opening round games by 40.

I understand that last year they were a different level. They were national champion. They opened up against Hartford. They won by 24. Then we go back to 2019. They end up opening the first round against Syracuse. They end up winning by 11. They're a team that when they play schools that are not quite as good, like they did in their non-conference this year, Central Arkansas by 45, Stanford, they beat by 38, Arizona, they beat by 15. Like they end up pounding teams. So I think that one with Baylor is way too low. And a lot of the one seeds across the board. But another one I know we're aligned on here is San Diego State versus Creighton. Had a chance to go to the Big East tournament and was really impressed with what Creighton was doing. Columa is an NBA player. That is the best recruiting class that Creighton has ever had this year. Real young program, and they've done very, very well, but they don't have

Ryan Nembhard, the point guard there. He is not available with a broken arm. Freshman is out, so they have Trey Alexander as the point guard. No team in the Big East tournament, Providence, Villanova, they could not do anything to Creighton because they're not a get up and defend and zigzag you type of team. San Diego State's going to bring a different level of defense, and I think it's a problem for Creighton. Oh, yeah, couldn't agree more. I mean, if you look at the metrics too, so both teams profile similarly,

strong defense and offense that ranks out of the top 100 in adjusted offense. But the San Diego State defense, second overall in defensive efficiency. Creighton's is good, 17th. But where it comes down to where I like the biggest advantage is something that you mentioned. San Diego State, huge advantage in the turnover rank, like 29th in turnover rating, 43rd in steal rate. Creighton's offense, 305th and 253rd in those categories. So that kind of, I think, mitigates some of the defensive issues that we're going to see offensively for San Diego State. So their offense might not be that good,

but if they're getting a bunch of steals, they're getting a bunch of turnovers, that creates opportunities in its own for a team to score offensively. So the more that I looked into this, the more that I dug into it, I liked San Diego State. I just couldn't get off of it. I think that I played them. There's also some alt plays as well. They're on FanDuel right now. They have a minus eight and a half or plus 250. They have a minus four and a half or plus 150. I think

that all of those are very much in play. I just kind of laddered the whole thing because I think that there's a chance here where they win by 15 plus. Yeah, folks, Connor's been killing it. He killed it with NFL season, killed it with college basketball props so far. That's a great, great point. If you like some of these teams, these favorite bets, go for the ladder, go for those alt lines. That's where the money is. I could absolutely see San Diego State winning this game by 10.

Absolutely. They're going to pressure Trey Alexander. Creighton is not the type of team that gets shots off individually. They have to create it within the offense. And if you're disrupting the floor general, I think it's a problem. Villanova helping recover. Providence was helping recover. This is a different game here.

I really like San Diego State. I agree completely. A couple of the favorites here. I mentioned Miami over USC. Listen, if you like bigs, folks, and you think the bigs are going to handle Miami inside with Sam Waterberg, and that's pretty much it, that's fine. I'm going to go you think the bigs are going to handle Miami inside with Sam Waterberg, and that's pretty much it, that's fine. I'm going to go with Isaiah Wong.

I'm going to go with Cam McGusty. I'm going to go with Charlie Moore, who was at Kansas and had multiple stops here, and Jim Laranega. I am not impressed with USC. I think it comes down to whether the interior, whether the interior of USC, one of the top three tallest teams in the country, or Miami. I am going with Miami getting that point and a half.

Connor and I both talked about Iowa State and LSU, the under, for all the reasons we mentioned. Metrically, both teams are tremendous. Pace of play with Iowa State is going to be slow as well. So we like the under there. And break it down for me, partner. Providence, I've been hooked into them and made a lot of money on Providence here with people fading them because of the luck metric.

But now South Dakota State, when that came out, my reaction at the TV was, I don't know about that one. What do you think? Yeah, so I took South Dakota State and I took the over of 149 points. I mean, as you mentioned, Providence number one in Ken Pomp's luck metric tends to regress at some points during the season. I think that there are some factors like teams that rank number one that rank number one in luck, like lost in the first round, I think, you know, heading into the tournament.

Again, not many teams are rated number one in luck, but that's basically just where we're at with them. Both teams have a massive advantage offensively. San Diego State, sorry, not San Diego State, both SDSU. South Dakota State ranks 12th in adjusted offense, while Providence ranks 80th in adjusted defense. South Dakota State, number one in the country in three-point percentage, ninth in two-point percentage.

They shoot well. I just don't really think that Providence's defense is going to be enough to kind of force them off of that. And so now you're looking at Providence's offense technically has a bigger margin over South Dakota State's defense. They're 32nd versus 223rd. So that's kind of why I like the over. I think we're going to see a ton of points. But at the end of the day, I think this should probably

be more of a coin flip. I don't really care about the four versus 13 seed. I think most people think that Providence was overseeded, at least by the metrics. I know that you like them. I think that they're still a good team, but the South Dakota team is frisky. They're a good offense. And I think this is a very exposable defense. So I think the over a good offense. And I think this is a very, you know, exposable defense. So I think the over is a player. And I also like the South Dakota state money line, like plus one 15. Yeah.

I took the money line. Absolutely. The difference here is it's all about the matchups. And I have like Providence because I thought if you just close your eyes and say they have a point guard now dorm, who's a senior who makes all his free throws, almost 90%. They got Jared Bynum hits big threes. They got Man mania who's a defensive stopper they have nate watson inside who's a

solid big and they have horkler who's sort of a glue guy that team that profile should be thought of better in the public than it was but in this situation i watched it watch nate watson you look at nate watson he's like six nine six", 250. Guy is so strong. Only averages like five and a half rebounds per game. He is not your typical interior big. South Dakota State can get beat on the inside. I don't think Providence can do it. I think it's a bad matchup. I agree.

I loved Providence all year, but you got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them. I am cutting bait here and going with the Jackrabbits. Just a couple other favorite bets I have. We talked about it. TCU versus the Hall. We're in agreement there because of the matchup, Texas tech versus Montana state guys, take a look at this under, I think it's around one 32. You know how good Texas tech is on defense,

Montana state in the big sky. Number one, it affected field goal percentage allowed three point percentage allowed two point percentage allowed and block. So this is a game to look at the under, I do think Texas tech pulls away. I just think they're a different caliber team, but Danny sprinkle there with the Bobcats. Definitely worth checking them out here for an under, because I do think they're going to keep this game close for a while. And Texas tech will pull away late.

And the last one for me, I'm not a Duke guy. I have them losing Connor to Davidson. I know what you think about the second round there, but I think they're going to be Cal state Folsom by more than 20. So I'm laying the points with Duke. Yeah. And I like that one as well.

I don't know. These big spreads kind of always throw me for a little bit of a loop here because, I mean, you just see some crazy stuff at the end of games. But I think to your Baylor point earlier, if you know a team that likes to really step on their opponent's throat and just keep shoving it down, I think that that's a good spot to kind of get after it. Because I think we've seen it in other sports too,

where some teams just kind of let their foot off the gas, coast, and do whatever. Some teams do not do that. They think it's bad for morale. They think it's bad for like your mentality into the next game. And they really just want to absolutely demolish their opponents. So I think that that is a good look there for sure. Yeah. One of those teams that will not do that is Gonzaga in conference. I won a good amount this year with, with their games because their spreads are so large and they were not great

against the number Pepperdine. I think it was 33. They're not going to beat anyone by 33. Fuchs is not going to do that to somebody in conference. So there are some teams that step on the throat like Baylor does. And I think you have to take advantage of them. Last part here, Connor, what do you got for some futures? We got some future bets here because of course the future numbers were out, but then you see the brackets and some of them maybe pop a little bit more than others. What are some future bet you like here for the ncaa tournament yeah so one that i i'm very interested in here um we talked about it already i think that south dakota uh state to make the sweet 16 is plus 700 um i mean it's i know i know that it's a little bit rich they have to be

providence but i mean think about it They're only a two-point dog. We both like South Dakota State there. So you're looking at that as more of a coin flip. And then you're looking at probably playing Iowa. Iowa is a team that we both mentioned also as well. Very, very exploitable defensively. And you're catching a South Dakota team that is great offensively. So that's the exact type of team that I think that can expose them.

So plus 800, plus 700, I think it's worth a look for sure. You know, I also come into, I think something else you have to think about with these futures is if you put say a hundred bucks on South Dakota state now, you know, and then roll that money over, would it be better or worse than plus seven, 800? I think it would probably be better to take the plus 800 just because you're catching right now on the money line plus 115. So, you know, in order for you to make money, you need it to be plus 400 or plus 350 technically on the money line. If you bet that same amount of money. So I don't think we're going to see a plus 350 money line in South Dakota State. I think

they're probably going to be, you know, maybe high single-digit underdogs to Iowa if they played. What do you think? Do you think that's fair? Yeah, I think 8, 9, somewhere. Yeah, somewhere right in there. Similar to what was the Richmond spread. Yeah. Yeah, so I think that plus 750 is interesting.

I mean, and then if Richmond upsets them, I mean, you're in a great, great spot. But, again, that's a little bit more unlikely. Another one that I like, Houston, plus 110 to make the Sweet 16. I think that that's also interesting as well. We talked about fading Illinois. I like them over UAB. It's really, you like UAB a little bit more than I do, I think, so that might not be one for you.

But if you're into Houston, I think that that is a good look as well. These are all over at FanDuel. Yeah, a couple that jumped out to me. If you like chalk in the Midwest region, you have Kansas and you have Auburn right now. You're looking for national title futures. You can get Auburn at FanDuel at plus 1600. Kansas most places is plus 900. So that's a huge difference.

I like Kansas. I think somehow Kansas for the first time under Bill Self is almost underrated as a one seed coming in. You don't hear a lot of Kansas. You're a lot of Arizona. You're a lot of Gonzaga, Baylor, even some people still hanging around with Duke. And then you hear the upsets. But if

I see a lot of brackets that are going out, I'm seeing a lot of Iowa in here. Kansas almost sliding through very underrated. So I like them at plus 1100 on FanDuel. But if you're going to make a choice there and you really are unsure, why not take Auburn at plus 1600 on FanDuel? They're basically in the same bracket there. So one of them gets through. You just have to win two more games. And the other one, the chalkiest bracket to me for futures is the South. I think it's going to be Arizona, Tennessee, and Villanova, absolutely. And Tennessee doesn't have the sex appeal of the big player. Everyone sort of contributes 10, but they play some great defense. And Villanova has struggled here down the stretch

against some of the teams that you thought they would destroy, and they haven't. Didn't cover against Creighton in the Big East Tournament Championship. So what about Tennessee at a plus 2,500 at FanDuel, plus 2,000 at Bet365 over Villanova, who actually has better numbers here. Even though Tennessee can make an argument, they have a better profile than Villanova,

and they certainly have a better profile than Duke, but they ended up being a three seat. So I think getting a little bit of discount from Tennessee and there's somebody I like as well for a future. If you want to not go with a favorite, go with someone from, from a higher odd. Is that 25 one to make the final four? Is that what you said? Uh, no, this is to win the championship. Yeah. To win the championship. Yeah. So I think that that's, that's a good look. Yeah. So, um, that's it. So folks, there you go. We took you through. Please don't forget to check out all the great stuff at Team Rankings,

TeamRankings.com, backslash 444, 15% off the bracket picks. Connor and I will be back with you next Tuesday. We did some live underdogs, some favorites, and some futures here. So enjoy the games, everyone. We got a great slate coming up, and we will come back and attack the Sweet 16 for you next week. So for Connor Allen, Mike Randall, we'll see you next time.