Move The Line - 2022 March Madness Bracket Picks and Predictions

Episode Date: March 16, 2022

Move The Line hosts Connor Allen and Mike Randle build the PERFECT 2022 March Madness Bracket with guest Andy Molitor.Plus our friends from TeamRankings stop by to discuss this year's tournament and how their product can help you win your pool.Topics Discussed(0:00) Intro (2:00) Bracket & Pools Strategy (18:05) Bracket Building (58:34) OutroHosts: Connor Allen, Mike Randle, Andy Molitor.Follow Us On:TwitterFacebookYouTubeDiscord Email: [e-mail] to 4for4's Betting Package 👉🏼 https://www.4for4.com/plansMaximize Your Edge With TeamRankings' Customized Brackets 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3q7cN6BFollow TeamRankings on Twitter 👉🏼 https://twitter.com/TeamRankings4for4 NCAA Betting Picks 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3JfPkYG

Hello and welcome to Move the Line March Madness Brackets show doing a little different spin on it today my name is Connor Allen and I'm joined by a variety of guests here we got a Mike Randall Mike how you doing today, man? Doing good, man. This is incredible. We got basketball tipped off already. Two tonight, two tomorrow, and then, of course, Thursday and Friday is Euphoria, Connor. It's incredible.

Oh, yeah, absolutely. Some of the best times of the year. Also joined by Bettspert's Andy Molitor. How are you doing, Andy? Great. Good to... It's been a while, Connor. Obviously, me and Mike got together last week, talked college basketball.

It was a ton of fun, but always good to join you. It's probably been since the football season, so... We hang out a lot during football. I feel like we usually have our yearly move the line, deep dive combo pod kind of thing where you and Drew stop by, but it's nice to be able to talk to you here as well um and today's show is sponsored by team rankings and the fine folks over there we're joined by jason lisk jason how you doing tonight man i am doing great we we not only have two ncaa games we we got santa clara if you want to stay up really late because i know everybody here's an it fan tons of games tonight. Let's hit it.

Love it. So if you want to go over to teamrankings.com, we have a special promotion with them, teamrankings.com slash 444. They have a ton of awesome stuff that we'll touch on here throughout the show. Something that we were talking about before and probably my favorite part is public pick percentage,

leveraging those like ownership percentage for DFS, basically the same thing for brackets. If you're in anything remotely serious, the last few years I've used it and won a lot of my brackets. So that's been great. Mike, where do you want to start here? A couple of questions for you, Jason. The site is tremendous. Been using it for so many years and the pick percentage of course is awesome because it's strategy it's game strategy first question would be i get this a lot on social media do you have strategy advice in your experience here with filling out large pools versus small pools strategy upsets percentages absolutely i think there's a difference here tell us what you think yeah absolutely i mean the every

pool people ask you who's your pick. It depends on what you're playing, right? It depends on what the point system, what my incentives are, and where my leverage points are. So we'll go from small to big. Obviously, small, you want to look conservative. You want to look win odds. You want to look chalk for the most part.

I mean, over the course of 64 games, you're going to differentiate from 20 other contestants, 30 other contestants, just even by picking mostly chalk. So you're going to want to mostly be conservative because most people like to pick upsets. And if you're only heads up, let's say only a couple people share your champion pick. If you're only heads up with a couple people, the odds that they score more than you by picking a bunch of 30% outcomes is pretty low. So you're a favorite to beat them if you hit your champion. So small pool, conservative.

Identify some of the top three or four teams. Match them up. You can check popularity a little bit. It's not super important for the champion pick as long as you play, you know, as long as you have some good leverage plays that have decent odds, but are less popular, like a four seed that is like only slightly less likely than the 2 or 1C to make the final four. Maybe that and that's it. As you move up, you get more risk. You get more value, more risk involved. But it takes a large pool size before you have to get really risky.

Because think about it this way. I mean, you can see the betting markets. You can see what the betting markets say, right? Like for a team, like, I don't know, pick a team, and we can look at them. Like that's not the favorite. Who do you want to talk about? How about Tennessee, Jason? Okay, Tennessee.

Tennessee is a good one, right? Tennessee to win the tournament. Let's just see. So we've got them at about – odds are about 4% to 5% to win the tournament. Does that sound right probably yeah I mean they're a three seed but they're a good three seed and and so you don't want to necessarily you don't have to pick Tennessee if you're in a really small pool because maybe having your final four is enough but if you're in a pool with a couple hundred people and let's say less than five percent of people are picking tennessee you're getting a pot odds for them about it so you only want to play that if the pool size is large

enough where if you hit your winner so you want to play a pool where you know it's it's large enough it's over 100 people before you start paying five percent outcomes uh for champion picks right uh so really you want to stick to like the chalk until you get that high. Now, huge contests, thousand people. Let's say a site has a contest where that's where you get really crazy. You're looking for either the 1% champ outcome that nobody's picking or maybe, you know, 2% and only like 0.5% is picking. So you're looking for that. Or you can still go with a semi-chalk pick for the title, but then you want a lot of like final four runs that are like 10%, 5% outcomes.

They're long shots to win. You're going to have to take swings. Now you don't have to swing and catch every 14th seed, but you do have to catch some, I mean, most brackets, the points, the leverage is in the final Elite Eight, Final Four champion. On ESPN scoring, that makes up half your score. And it's a half the score that either you get or you don't.

Like in the first two or three rounds, you're going to get a split. Some people might get four more points than the other. They haven't won anything yet. You may outscore somebody by four points in the first round. What does that do you? It may put you slightly ahead of the people that have your same championship that's it um so as you get larger you need to take more um extreme outcomes and play value so you want to look at pick popularity as you get larger and play those um you know you want to think about it is it better for me to play a bracket pool than a money line out on this pick?

If so, you might want to make them just play a long shot bracket pool and make them a pick. You might have better odds than going to Vegas and playing the money line on that team. Those are some great points there. I noticed here on your guys' website, looking at some of the top picks here, if you are in a pool smaller than 100 people, looking at the percent of public picking team is champion versus team ranking odds to be champion here one of the highest differences that you have at least among the favorites here is kentucky so uh only seven percent of people

picking them to be the champion versus uh you guys have them at 11.6 percent to win the championship so um i think that that in yeah 0.6 i, we're scrubbing everything tonight. We're, we're, we're, we're about 11% on Kentucky. I'm sorry. We're at about 11% on Kentucky. And so, yeah, we're showing value on Kentucky right now, which is kind of surprising to me as somebody who's in deep with college basketball, they're clearly are power rated as a top four team all year. Right.

I mean, there's been no doubt. And, and when their lineup's healthy, they've been dominant at times. I mean, they destroyed Kansas. They're a legit contender. I guess people are scared by what happened on Saturday with Tennessee. They played not a great game. But, yeah, I'm surprised because I would have had them. Honestly, some people like to avoid one seeds. I thought Kentucky would be more popular precisely because they're on the two line, because people could say, oh, I can take Kentucky and not pick a one seed. But maybe people are just so used to one seeds winning recently, which they have. But Kentucky to me is like Villanova in 16. They're a strong two. They are a one seed caliber two. And there's a

couple other things I think going on with Kentucky, maybe with our odds. We're down on Purdue, who's in their region. Purdue's defensive numbers are terrible. We've made an adjustment based on their pace and their defensive numbers for tournament play because teams like Purdue can sometimes underperform. And so that's impacting as the simulations run through the bracket. And Baylor has some injuries that I think create some variance in their outcomes. And so with those two things, I think that kind of subtly makes Kentucky's chances a little better than if those teams, if Purdue was a strong three seed that played defense well,

and if Baylor was fully healthy. Would you say, Jason, on your projections that the South bracket, I found that when I was filling it out, the South bracket to me was the chalkiest bracket because exactly what you said, Tennessee's a strong three, Villanova, I'm not sure you have them. Arizona, you could argue, is the hottest team in the tournament right now coming in. What are your thoughts there from what you're seeing on the South bracket? Yeah, the South's really strong and it's kind of, there's some risk for Arizona throughout that bracket. So I think Arizona is one of the best teams, but there is risk there. As early as round

two, just because of the type of matchup, Seton Hall and TCU are both teams that can offensive rebound and have front lines, which is Arizona's strength is their front line, they're going to dominate teams that can't match up there. But so they would have been better off at, say, a Davidson or teams like that where they're 8-9. So there's a little risk with Seton Hall and TCU there. And then either Houston or Illinois, good team. I mean, they basically have a tough draw to get through because then somebody will have survived on the other side from Tennessee or Villanova. And so they're going to face a fairly

tough path. Everyone talks about, you know, got to get the final four, right? You want to get your champion, right? Cause that's how the brackets are skewed. A lot of times. What about the first round upsets? Because I think there's a feeling there's like a mental hurdle that if you get a lot of first round upsets, even though it's only worth one point, usually you feel like you're on the right track and that you did something right here, even if you don't end up getting, you know, your final bracket through. Yeah. First of all, I mean, in, in most pools, I would not pick many like huge upsets, nor do I think you need to this year, um, above say that, well, I mean, besides Providence, who's a two point favorite, I think there's, I think it's not worth the risk to me.

There are some teams I like against the spread, certainly, as underdogs. I like UAB, given their style. I like Chattanooga, potentially, depending on where Illinois' health situation is. I like New Mexico State. Point guard missed the part of the season. They're much better now. Some teams like that I like against the spread. I don't know if I'd pick them out right. But there's a ton of, I don't even know if you have to pick up sets this year. The six through 11 range is a mess. The committee, like the six seeds, a lot of them were struggling entering the tournament. Some of the 11 seeds are peaking. Some 10 seeds are favored. I mean, I think the average spread in that range is less than a point, honestly.

So you're getting basically like 12 toss-ups where maybe the public is on one side and you can get value without taking a huge swing by just playing, you know, one of those teams that's not as popular but has a really good chance of winning. For sure. And just the main thing here, the biggest takeaway, I think, is just I feel like there's a big chunk of the population who just doesn't think about the game theory of this

because they've been filling out brackets since they were, like, in sixth grade. You know, and they've been doing it for so long. I mean, even some people who are pretty smart and you know can model out some of the ev and survivor pools and nfl and other sports they look at brackets completely different as like odds you know the odds of getting a perfect bracket are a trillion to one and it's a lot of a lot of variance but like there there is a ton of games and i think that's uh so and that's what that's what your product is you know trying to help people with we we've certainly studied this a lot i will tell you it's not the case this year

but there are some years when we're like in small pools we're like take all the ones and two seeds to the elite eight it's not going to hit but take them and here's the two we think are the strongest pick them to win it and you'll probably win your pool and people react like why did i pay you to tell me that and then our response, but would you have done that if we hadn't told you? No, you would have put a six seed in the Elite Eight, right? People love to pick upsets. If you want to pick upsets,

play in a pick X pool where you pick 10 teams and you get seed points. They're out there. Those are fun. Play a survivor pool where you get to go heads up sometimes against the most popular team in the Elite Eight as an underdog and win the pool outright if you hit. Play money lines.

There's lots of cool props like number one and two seeds to miss in Sweet 16. But you need to be more conservative on taking the big swings because those aren't going to win you a pool unless it's an upset pool pool right unless you get bonus points then then we're talking different different game theory so yeah i think people people get it's it the mentality as you say is different if i if we give people's nfl survivor advice they don't they don't respond to us and say why are you picking the teams that you think will win the most uh duh that's what you want to do. But in March Madness, they're like, why are we picking so many teams that you expect to win? Because that's how you win pools. You pick the teams you expect to win. Jason, with that survival pool, because this has been a big debate that

I've heard so much. So many people are like, you have to save, you have to save, you have to save. And then sometimes you save and you don't even get to that point because you get knocked out. So I guess it's a balance, right? Between taking, you know, educated risks, but also maybe saving as much as you can, but you got to get to the point where it matters. Don't you? Absolutely. And I'll give you some, I mean, nobody's perfect with theory, but March Madness Survivors are fun. First of all. Getting on some of these big pools are really fun. Pick each day. You're rushing to get your picks in. It's like on steroids. It's like a survivor pool,

fast-paced. Yeah, I don't think you can just go with super risky picks that have no future value. I'm picking the seven because they're a three-point favorite. You're going to get knocked out pretty quick if that's your philosophy. I think you've got to take some stands my general thing is i'm not probably going to say the two or three best teams that i think i need to win a national title if it

gets there but if i have a one seed who i'm maybe a little down on i may use them in the second round and just take the chance oh my odds say they've only got a 10 chance to get the final four i'm playing that i I you can't you can't play for every contingency you got to take some stands and survivor to get value because otherwise you're doing things like taking Florida against Oral Roberts with 40% of your pool and if that hits if that loss happens you're knocked out and so you want to avoid those in some ways you want to take like a three or four seed who you think actually isn't that great of pick to make the final four because they have a tough draw later on you may want to use them and stay off the super

popular second round pick like that that's a great call yeah this is uh this is an awesome uh primer for us uh going into the next segment here i think this is uh you know a lot of great stuff here from jason um and if you have anything else to promote from team rankings, you can go ahead and do so now. We will be building a bracket live on air following this. I think it'll be a good time. We're going to build the perfect bracket.

I'm about to tweet that out. We're building the perfect bracket. The risk of building a bracket as you go from the ground up is that you put teams through and then you evaluate each matchup individually. Whereas if you simulate it you see where the risks are like oh if they're five percent more likely to even if i'm not picking against them in round one if their chances are 65 instead of 70 that slowly decreases like how good a play they are by the final four so those are the risks of building it without the simulation. But you still have fun.

I mean, take swings this year. There are 10 contenders and there are teams on the 4-5 line that I think are legit plays and even medium-sized pools this year. And if you come to team rankings, here's what we got. We give you five brackets. You put in your rules. We customize it. You tell us what your scoring system, your size, payout structure. Because we adjust risk based not only on size, but payout structure, right?

If you've got a lot, if it's a flat payout structure, we're going to be more conservative than you say it's winner take all. We're going to go for the home run if it's winner take all. And so we do that and we give you five brackets. So those brackets complement each other. So if we've got one champ runner-up pick and one we're going to give you some other brackets that kind of counter that like they're going to leverage a few key teams but they're going to play like the team that can beat them

on the other side if your one bracket loses here's what here's where we think you get benefited in the other like okay we had this team losing the final four in the other one now they're the champ that kind of thing um and so we play some complimentary brackets. So look for that. We've got Calcutta tools. We've got Survivor tools. So check us out. I like that complimentary bracket.

It's like building a really good pick six down at the horse track, covering all your options down the stretch there to make sure you end up with the money. So, yeah, I love that. Yeah, you can't cover every option in a bracket, obviously. Right. You gotta, there's gotta be some stands, but you can cover like some of your risks because every bracket has, you know, certain outcomes that are going to screw you and you know it.

What are my biggest liabilities? Oh, a Duke run or, you know, cause I picked Duke not to make the final four or whatever. So you can't pick cover them all, but you can cover some with, with say a five bracket approach, a five-bracket approach, a four-bracket approach. All right, guys. Is it time? Is it time to start building the bracket?

It may be. Yeah, go for it. All right, this is great. So, guys, I think what we're going to do here is why don't we just alternate? We will go game by game. We'll go right down the list, Connor, myself, Jason, and Andy, and we'll pick a game and we'll just keep rotating and see who ends up here as the champion. Connor, really tough here. Going to start off with you, Gonzaga and Georgia state. One seeds are, what is it? 143 and

one. So, uh, going to pick the one seat there. Just not even going to think about it. I have to thank Sal for putting us in this order because I feel very strongly, guys, that Boise is going to beat Memphis. Memphis with the turnovers. Boise is lengthy. Boise will feast off of those turnovers. They won't turn it over themselves. I feel like they are a better version of Houston in this matchup. I am going to put Boise State through in

this game. And I know most people are on Memphis, but I do like the Broncos from the Mountain West. All right, Jason, you're up here as the guest. Connecticut, New Mexico State. You mentioned this a little bit. Yeah, I mean, I kind of like New Mexico State with the points, but I'm not going to get that risky here because I talked about risk. We're going to put Connecticut through in this bracket. We'll find our leverage plays later on. Andy, you get the first frisky game here, Arkansas-Vermont, which is now dropped, I think. I think it's Arkansas minus five. What do you think? Yeah, this is one. I talked about this three or four times with people. It said, you got a team that's probably pretty good, but you don't know how good they are because they play in just a,

a horrible, horrible league and beat the tar out of those teams all year. I, I miss the guy, the guy with the big hair for Vermont, Anthony lamb, a couple of years ago, I used to just truck for against me when I take a road.

So I don't know how big this bracket league is. I'm just going to, I'm going to take an upset. I'll go Vermont. I'm not keen on Arkansas this year year and i love moss excellent very good they're not shooting the three well either i mean i think this is this is a good matchup yeah this is like a four or five point spread i'm fine with that upset here so connor you get a multi-level question so you have ruckers notre dame whoever you think is going to win that and then going against alabama so you

have to sort of give us some detail here yeah Yeah, I keep going back and forth on that because I mean, technically I think the numbers, uh, you know, prefer Notre Dame, but I mean, Rutgers has just been so on and off this year. Like the, they've had some just massive performances, uh, and obviously some duds as well. Um, again, like that's, I think either way that Alabama ends up winning, um, just, you know, based on their metrics, I think either way that Alabama ends up winning just, you know, based on their metrics, I think they're a pretty solid team here. You know, 25th in Ken Palm's overall adjusted efficiency margin, you know, a good bit better than either of those teams.

So I think that they're probably my pick there regardless. Only year that the play in game has not had someone advanced from the 11-12 area was 2019. But don't forget, we had UCLA down 10 last year to Michigan State at halftime, hit the final four, and of course, Shaka started it all at VCU. I got a pretty easy one here. Texas Tech, Montana State. Tech's defense, guys, I struggle to have upsets for teams that really lock down defensively.

Montana State's not going to see, haven't seen anything like Texas Tech this year. So I think it's a pretty easy advance for me. Chalk here at the three with the Red Raiders. Jason, this is another frisky one. Michigan State, Tyson Walker. I don't know, guys, his status. And Davidson, you want to call it the foster lawyer revenge game.

Michigan State, Davidson, what do you think? I was going to say, I was going to pull up my model and just start plugging in plugging in these uh matchups i don't have some of the later on ones so oh man david davidson was my squad and uh in the conference tournament futures and uh yeah they lost didn't they that was another one of my that was another one of my conference futures i think i went like four and nine in the finals with conference futures so davidson is dead to me a little bit is so give me that give me that just uh chalk that one out for now it's interesting that's the 7-10 seat here so michigan state right now it's like a one point favorite over at fanduel uh despite being a 7-10. So probably one of my biggest tips actually for building a bracket just in general is

like, you know, look at the spreads. Don't look at like the seeds because you'll see some of these 10 seeds or 11 seeds or 12 seeds even sometimes like pretty much even with the others. So you can basically just pick upsets off that, which sounds like common sense to us obviously, but to anyone who doesn't really gamble that much, but likes to play brackets, I think it's a good way to go about it yeah and i saw a stat today uh 10 seeds actually have a better winning percentage against two seeds in the second round than they do overall against the seven so their percentage of wins when they get through is actually higher than beating the sevens

in the initial game i thought that was interesting yeah. Yeah, I forgot. I was thinking it was Michigan minus three or four. That one's like a pick-em. I'm not 100% sure. I'm super confident in that anymore, but whatever. Still mad at Davidson. All right, Connor. Duke, Cal State, Fullerton. Anything exciting here?

I mean, I'm definitely not super sold on Duke as a team, but I think I have to probably pick them here. I don't really think that they're going to drop the ball at this point. All right, going back to the top, Gonzaga, Boise. Oh, I can't. I think this is a rough draw for Gonzaga, more so than people realize. I thought last year was very easy. I think this is difficult.

UConn, Arkansas, those teams could beat them, but I can't do it here with Boise. I think it's a close game, but I think the zags go through you got a tough one andy you're getting all the tough ones now that jason has dropped out uh connecticut vermont a battle here of the northeast oh let's put it in here these definitely aren't pulling to my scraper because these games don't exist yet oh man i have this one pretty close to just like you know based on vermont's offense again i'm gonna have to well defer i'm not gonna defer the pick but give me give me the skinny on connecticut's defense i'm not super and guys where is this game is this in buffalo this one and that's what i think too i think this is actually

up in the Buffalo region. You might have good crowds for that one from both sides. That's just going to be great. Who would you put through, Andy? I'm looking real quick. Connecticut's defense, 35th in adjusted defense, 22nd offensively. You're picking between Vermont and Connecticut, correct? Yeah, I'll just move UConn on. They played pretty well here, I'm looking at now, second offensively. Um, and you're picking between Vermont and Connecticut, correct?

Yeah. I'll get, I'll just move you con on. They, they played pretty well here. I'm looking at now, especially against some teams with some decent offense, biggie stuff. What are you going to do? Connor, Alabama, Texas tech fun game. Yeah. Um, I like Texas tech here right now. I believe, uh, first in defensive efficiency overall, just 65th in offensive efficiency, though. I think that is something that I've noticed and probably be their biggest stalwart in the tournament. You kind of see these different teams and like balance is actually really, really important in the tournament. So teams that don't rank, you know, in the top like 25 in offense, you know, really have struggled in the tournament.

But, you know, I think it's early enough. I think that they're still a better team. So it was like 18 of the past 19 winners have ranked inside the top 25 in adjusted offense for the tournament. So, you know, Texas Tech obviously ranks well outside that, but I still like them here against Bama. Guys, I didn't like Duke to begin with, and I have them out in a bracket. I just put through to Davidson. So I'm taking them out here with Michigan state. I just don't like what I've seen. They could not rally against North Carolina. I have not been impressed with North Carolina. The fact that they came back on that game with everything that was at stake, the last home

game for coach K was bizarre. They couldn't rally against Virginia tech, who was pretty much slicing and dicing them with Mike Young. Now here comes Izzo. I know we're going to hear the stack guys. Izzo is a horrific record against Coach K. I understand that. I would even put Davidson through. I just don't think Duke can rally.

I think they're a lot of talent, and there's no chemistry whatsoever. And let's face it, Coach K has not been great in the tournament with freshman players, and he's got those players. And at this point, I don't know. I just don't see it. So I will actually put the Spartans through. I really think that like I think that A.J. Donaldson, a listener here, brought up a good point. Like, I think that there's a decent chance that either of those team beats Duke.

Let's we got to let's get down to the elite. We were there to the elite. Let's slide across. You guys want to slide across or finish this one off? We'll slide across. Let's slide across. All right. So we will go.

I sit here and run numbers for you, Kahn, Gonzaga, and you guys move on. Okay. We can go back. We can go back. We can go back. Arizona. Give me Arizona. All right.

Arizona. Best team in the tournament probably. You got it. God knows what. I can't even see it so small. Is that the right state one? I know. I'm looking at the tournament, probably. You got it. God knows what. I can't even see it so small. Is that the Wright State one? I know.

I'm looking at the score. It's a Horizon League winner. Yeah, give me a break. Who do you like in that game? Peter Kiss? Do we like Brian or Wright State in that game? I'd like the over. Good call. You could set it at 160.

People would still bet that over. It's been bet up already, so I think I have a little bit on that over already. Connor, Seton Hall, TCU. I think TCU is underrated. I don't know. Hall, TCU, what do you got? Yeah, I mean, it's pretty much a toss-up right now. I think that Ken Palm's numbers actually has Seton Hall 35th overall

in adjusted efficiency margin. They have TCU at 38th. Spread right now, Seton Hall by half a point. I mean, if you like TCU, then let's roll TCU. I don't have too much of an opinion. Oh, boy. Peanut butter and jelly walker for the UAB Blazers. Look, I like UAB with the spread.

I don't like Houston losing this game. This is totally to me that UAB covers, but Houston moves on. They're going to be physical. UAB really hasn't played anyone of the level of Houston. And Samson coming off of last year, I think this team is going to be difficult. It's 5-12. It's popular. I think it's a popular upset that people are picking, but I'm going to go with Houston here and keep it chalky. Yeah. I'm glad you got that one. I loved art i loved uab they're one of my favorite tournament teams i know i thought about it i definitely have them with i got it eight and a half i think it's down now i mean i think the houston's like one of the best like five seeds though i mean in recent

that's the problem i like them both like i think houston could have been a three borderline two if uh things shook out right during the season with the talent they have it's it's tough with some of the personnel stuff but like it's still a very scary team. And I bet against them in the conference tournament. I took Memphis to take the tournament, and I don't know if Houston was sandbagging or what, because they waxed in the finals. I think you're right.

Houston moves on there. And this is another one where I feel like a lot of people are on the mocks, aren they yeah i think the question andy to you and i'm glad you have this one not me silvio de souza does the five-star kansas transfer have enough to limit coburn to keep it because normally these bigs can dominate early but i i feel like the mocks can go a little bit toe-to-toe with them what do you think here probably one of those where it feels really good in the first half and then you go up against a really good pretty experienced big 10 team as low as i am on the big 10 like it's a pretty good defense too and it's one of those where chattanooga hangs and hangs and hangs and then loses by eight so i i have it a

pretty i have it pretty low as far as them moving on here. So I'll move the Illini up. Connor, give the right answer for this game. There is only one correct answer, Colorado State, Michigan. Oh, my gosh. I mean, now you've put a lot of pressure on me here. I think Michigan is like minus two and a half, opened at like three, three and a half. You know, I think the Colorado State's kind of a good team at like three, three and a half. Um, you know, I, I think the

Colorado state's kind of a good team. I mean, I, I don't know. I think that they're interesting. My only, I saw some weird travel concerns. Like they were like not updated by the NCAA of like when to travel on, they like hadn't gotten their flight yet. Um, I don't know that screams like this could be like a rigged game to me, you know, like the NCAA is just already kind of putting in their little, uh, rig. I don't know. I mean,

I think that it's tough. It's tough to fade the favor here in Michigan, but I think that, uh, I don't know. I kind of like, what, what do you think the right answer is?

I mean, I'm a little more torn. Uh, but this is the guys I'm not, this is, I should not answer this cause I'm biased. My heart is with Colorado state. I've loved them all year.

That's why I said, I mean, I, I think that's fine. I think the big 10 is overrated i think we need to like i don't i think a lot of them are gonna have early exits i'm i'm a mountain west guy i think the big 10 is overrated i'd still probably take michigan it's a tough tough sledding there you know what i laughed at guys is i i was all over fading michigan coming into this year and at halftime remember that buffalo opener game it was like 51 to 35 the first game.

I'm getting crushed on social media. Michigan's rolling. What were you talking about? Buffalo came back and covered. And I feel like it's been up and down, up and down since then. Tennessee Longwood, like what Longwood's done this year. Fantastic job. Tennessee is just rolling.

I mean, you could make an argument, guys, that Tennessee is the hottest team coming in the tournament, Arizona or them. I mean, if you can make an argument, guys, that Tennessee is the hottest team coming in the tournament, Arizona or them, their defense, their balance, they're shooting well. Longwood hasn't seen anything like this. I like Longwood, but I'm going to move Tennessee on. Good. Andy's getting all the good games here. I don't want to pick this one. Ohio State, Loyola, Chicago. Yeah, this is another. You give me all these ones, and it's like a pick-em on the spread. That's why.

I'm not getting any 10-point favorites. I guess I get Arizona. But I was a little down on Loyola in the conference tournament. I thought their price was a little too juicy. I bet against them that didn't work out. I liked how they looked. They really ripped through the tournament looked pretty tough i think they even even though i was down on them i still think they're underseated

like they could have been an eight they were underseated last year like oh they were better last year they were like an eight yeah that team was like a five or a six man they tragically underseated for as much as love as we give them so i have them moving on i have this pretty much a pick them with uh loyal a favorite slightly here so yeah i bet i bet loyal outright too uh you can get them at like plus one or like you know even money well not in illinois uh unfortunately due to lawmakers but uh you know you can obviously you know you can find a workaround here and there but i i mean i always say it's defense like uh i think they're 13th offensively 130th defensively something like that uh and that's over adjusted i think for the big 10 so uh i think loyola's offense there takes advantage yeah if you're 130th defensively playing it's like

the gophers and the huskers have loyola that's that's my thing there is i think loyola wins by like five i'm gonna be i'll be taking some alt spreads for loyola yeah that could just a side note that kid malachi branham a good player for for ohio state that freshman is great uh connor villanova delaware i'm seeing action on this a lot of action on delaware here on the spot i mean if you got a case for delaware go for it i mean no i don't i don't have a case to win but to cover cover. They've been bet down for like 17. It's that liquid. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, probably still Villanova for bracket purposes. Dylan Payne or Revenge Game?

No. Respected that. Okay, moving down here. Are we going to do the second round in that one? Yeah, sorry. My fault. Yeah, second round. Going to the top.

I thought we were just going wild with this. We kind of are. We're going rogue. I like it. Just popping all over the place. This is how the perfect bracket is started, just from a wild brain function of popping from region to region, and we're good to go.

I want to build drama for the final four, so we'll do the eight here. Arizona, TCU. I get it, and I like what Jason was saying, that TCU can rebound with them, but Arizona is just so impressive to me. I think that's an easy move forward. Houston, Illinois.

I've already expressed my love for Houston seating. I would love to see this Houston-Arizona game anyway. If nothing else, I'm picking it to see that game on, oh boy, Thursday. That would have to be a Thursday night one. Give me the West Coast crowd watching that one at night for Sweet 16 opener. Boy. Connor, Colorado State, Tennessee. Oh.

I mean, I think it's probably still Tennessee. I think we're taking too many favorites here. I don't know. You guys like Colorado State enough to pick them over Tennessee or not really? I like – it's all Roddy, and Roddy gets in foul trouble. any favorites here? I don't know. You guys, you guys like Colorado. You like Colorado state enough to pick them over Tennessee or not? Really? I liked, uh, that just, it's all Roddy and Roddy gets in foul trouble.

They're real. It's, it's so deep Roddy dependent because they're so limited inside. I, I can't put them. I don't know. Andy, I can't put them past Tennessee.

No, that's a, that's a tough ask. Again, it's another team. Like it stinks for me because I looked at, uh, you know,

just how the seating was likely to land and i said man tennessee and houston are some underseated teams and i might take to go away and they end up in the same bracket for the same region as is usually my cases so as is the same as i said to jason i just think this is the chalky bracket i'm gonna put villanova through here guys villanova has the same profile this year that they had with their two championship teams. Veteran teams, they defend well, they rebound, they don't turn the ball over. And now the biggest difference this year was about halfway through the year, their two-point percentage was not great, but it has really improved. And you know, they make their free throws coaching change.

Valentine's done a great job. I can't put them through again and beating this Nova team. I just think they're clicking here and a slow pace, not a high scoring game for sure, but I'll put the Wildcats through. All right. Going down to the Midwest. Okay. Andy, now you got an easy one, right? Kansas. It's funny how how we it's funny how we do the clockwise thing like they do on tv too like you there wasn't a thought in your mind to do it like a book to go to the east i know i know and none of us would have wanted you to either so yeah i can't but kansas i will either one seed whatever but yeah kansas is moving on there we're like pavlov's dogs we're trained with march i know. Connor, I'm curious to hear your guys' opinion on this.

San Diego State, Creighton, because Creighton's scalding hot, but they don't have a point guard. San Diego State's defense, what do you got? Yeah, I think that that could cause some problems for them. I mean, second in adjusted defensive efficiency here. They're great at turning the ball over 29th and turning the ball over defensively. I mean, like you said, you know, don't have them point guard. I mean, I think that could

cause a lot of issues there. So give me San Diego state. Iowa, Richmond, love Jacob Gilear. Got to interview him earlier this year. What a nice kid, all time steals leader, but let's not forget guys that Richmond was pretty much dead and buried to Dayton before the injury to the point guard, and he went out, and then they went on a massive run, and they had a fantastic comeback there in that game against Davidson to win the title. But Iowa's offense with the Murray brothers is just clicking at a different level. Mohannon for three. I'm going to put Iowa through.

I do not see this as the 12-5 upset. I'd be surprised by this, like Richmond, but I'm putting Iowa through. Ah do not see this as the 12-5 upset. I'd be surprised by this. Like Richmond, but I'm putting Iowa through. Ah, Andy, fantastic. Providence, South Dakota State. Naturally. And it is funny, the Richmond thing, real quick. I haven't done a single bracket yet, a single contest, except for the thing we've been running in my hometown for a million years, where 32 people throw in a hundred bucks and they just draw two teams. You just get two, you can get two 16 seeds. And I got Richmond and Davidson this year, just dad, right from the get-go. And just, and just to remind, we already have them out at this point. And just, just a reminder too, that I lost to Richmond in that final with davidson um south dakota state that's where i

met my wife the mother of my children brooklyn south dakota i mean just if anything else the in-laws are coming to town this weekend like from brookings like that it's it's all things are lining up so that's a summer state wins by three one point for each time i had to retake algebra two while i said connor i i guess you like the under lsu iowa state what do you think yeah um probably still lsu i guess i mean i don't know i think that that's i think that this is again this is like a much closer game than the seeds should suggest and lsu could certainly lose after i mean what is it they fired their coach before the tournament um i don't i don't really understand but you know i mean they could certainly lose just very wide range of outcomes but you know again if we're doing a thousand tournament

pool sure let's throw in you know whatever uhU, but probably LSU just for this purposes. I've seen a lot of people talking about Colgate. I think not having, you know, Jordan Burns was a major part of that team last year against Arkansas when he was playing for them, the six foot senior point guard. They don't have him. I know that Colgate plays a style that could cause Wisconsin trouble, but I don't see it, guys, especially because Wisconsin got a huge benefit playing in Milwaukee.

They're going to be playing a five-serve form for these two games here. I don't see Colgate with the way they play. Ferguson can shoot the three records inside, the hardworking kid, but Wisconsin goes through, especially playing in their backyard. Andy, another tough one, USC-Miami. I looked at tickets for that game. Milwaukee's not that far. Spoiler, they're expensive.

I'm like, yeah, not going to that one. But, yeah, Colgate, everybody wants them to win that game. I like them against the spread there, but I agree with you for sure. USC-Miami, yes, you've either given me one seeds or spreads that are just like right on the pick them here. This is another one where I didn't watch a lot of USC games. I think I have them a lot lower. Yeah.

I'm not super keen on where they got seated. I don't know if they deserve the seven seed. Maybe you can straighten me out on that, but I, I have Miami is a better team. I have no idea what the spread is on that right now. USC is favored by one and a half. Yeah, another one and a half point game. Thanks, guys.

I'll take Miami in this one, though. I have USC a bit lower than a seven seed. I really like that pick. When it came out out my initial gut reaction is miami is underseeded it's the first thing that came out of my mind and listen they don't have a lot of bigs inside but magusti can shoot the three charlie moore's been on 12 teams he's a veteran guy was on kansas and isaiah wan can attack attack the basket i'm with you on that look yeah looking at my numbers if those numbers were flipped around on those two teams it would make more sense to me yes yeah excellent point uh connor auburn jacksonville state jacksonville

state did not win the conference tournament but they're in anyway yeah we'll go with auburn there these uh you know whatever uh participation trophy winners don't get deserved to they're arrested they didn't have to play in the finals yeah i guess but they didn't win anything you know like brandon what kind of momentum do you have it's like yeah we lost but we still get to go negative momentum i don't know like you know that's they need a monster game from brandon huffman to to get through their kansas san diego state when i did this bracket i started saying wow is kansas sort of sneaking in here with a pretty nice draw i like san diego state but i think kansas can match them and i just don't think there's enough offense it's matt bradley he'd have to have 30 which i saw him do against colorado state

but jay hawks go through for me well how long are you going to align andy with your in-laws not not i mean by the time this game plays they'll be headed home they're headed home saturday morning so they'll be out of town already i'm free to pick iowa that south dakota state defense just is not it's not good like it's very it's a bad defense legitimately they're not going to be able to handle that iowa offense that should be a bloodbath connor this would be impressive is that lsu with a without their head coach can go and beat wisconsin and milwaukee but maybe it could happen they're the number one defense right and adjust the defensive efficiency i think in the country number two one or two maybe san diego state's one what do you got here man i i think that we can go with uh we can go with lsu i just i think we

need to fade i i want to start fading the big 10 a little more i would almost like have thought about going san diego state over iowa just, um, it's like, uh, something that Ken Barkley has talked about a lot. It's basically like teams who are, um, you know, so bad defensively, uh, you know, like Iowa 77th and adjusted defense, but raw efficiency is like outside the top hundred, um, like teams like that. Like, I think it's almost none of them have made the elite eight like ever basically. Um, and so that's kind of like the, the, the exact team to fade them in Purdue or teams that are like scary because their floors are so low where if they continue to not play good defense, like they could run into a buzzsaw. Um, so I think, yeah,

we'll go LSU here. Um, but yeah, that's just something that I'm paying attention to in the bracket. Worked last year, Ohio State and Iowa both very fit that exact bill. We're like outside the top 100 defensively and took an early exit. I love that I get this one. I'm putting Miami through. I think Auburn three and three in their last six. I think they are not playing their best basketball. The Texas A&M game was very revealing to me.

Jim Laranega on the bench, magic from George Mason, 10 statistically decent against twos, like this matchup. It's very Syracuse-ish, guys. You know, the team that gets in that nobody really pays attention to, and all of a sudden they're here. Like the matchup here with solid guards. Auburn's not going to be able to turn them over that much i'm going to put miami through get rid of some of the chalk you guys okay with that yeah moving over to the other side all right andy you get a layup

baylor norfolk good job winning the miak i mean norfolk it was a nice tournament essentially at home but baylor is a truck uh unc marquette Connor I'm glad you're talking about this I have no clue about this game the one I've really struggled with yeah same um I mean what is what is the spread even on this like I think it's three three uh yeah I mean probably lean North Carolina here um I mean a decent amount better in metrics, but I feel like they've also been very streaky this year. And they have an advantage inside with Baycock over whoever Marquette's going to throw at them. Thrilled about this. This line is crazy that it opened Wyoming favored, and now it's Indiana favored.

Regardless who comes out of that game, I am taking them over St. Mary's. I think St. Mary's really got a very high boost from beating Gonzaga. Great job, but it was at home and they have the rivalry with Gonzaga. There's familiarity there. Four quad one wins, guys, for St. Mary's and all of them came in the West Coast Conference. Two reactions I had when the bracket came out. Miami is underseeded and St. Mary's is overseeded so playing game gets hot why not put them through uh next up ucla akron ucla like i said i started betting against them and didn't stop till we got uh pretty deep i have them almost under-seeded as well, though. Not quite.

They're right there. And pulling up my Akron number. Yeah, I'm fine with UCLA moving on. Jesus. Yeah, Akron's defense is way down there. I guess they're way down there because of where they are. I mean, it's a MAAC team. Yeah, wasn't the MAAC team mac team guys i would think would have really

scared ucla some other teams maybe but i this is this was an odd oh yeah this is a 14 point spread i was surprised at how far i had them apart but yeah i would love to see kent state in this spot i think that would be a more fun matchup well said absolutely connor texas virginia tech i mean virginia tech way underseeded here. I mean, Texas is just a one-point favorite. So I think for differentiation's sake, I'm fine with let's take Virginia Tech, unless you guys really feel strongly about Texas going far. No, I feel like Chris Beards had some struggles there.

Trey Mitchell just left the team. He was one of his bigs. I think he's had an adjustment period for sure. Purdue-Yale, not going to waste time here. I love Purdue. They have struggles, like Jason said earlier, in defense, absolutely, but I don't think they get tripped up by Yale. I think the bigs are just too big, too good for them.

Andy? They'll trip up, just not against the second-best team in the Ivy League. I agree with you. Yes, absolutely. What do I got here? God, another one of these. This is like a one-point game. That's why you get the big bucks.

Yeah, this is another team where I love the racers. Everybody's talking about the possible matchup with Kentucky. I have them a little overseeded, honestly. And, again, it depends how you feel about the West Coast Conference. But San Francisco and St. Mary's, both, they play pretty decent defense. I like San Francisco as a whole better than St. Mary's. I'm going to move them on here. Murray State also, in their winning streak,

has played one top 100 team in the entire time. Yeah. I mean, it's not the greatest conference uh connor kentucky yep sure let's roll you got him you have him covering that game too curious i think so but what do you think yeah probably i mean i think i think i i think that they're the recency bias of what we saw last is kind of tough to overcome, but I think that they're in a good spot. Baylor UNC, I will put Baylor through.

I don't like you. I mean, they're hot and they've played well, but I just think Baylor's a different animal. And Cryer could be back, right, for this game? I think he could be back. I don't think he's playing a Norfolk game, but he could be back for this one. All right, Andy, I stuck you here because I put Wyoming-Indiana winner through against UCLA. So I guess if it's Wyoming, maybe

you get some hero ball. I mean, that's what you see from some of these lower-seeded teams where somebody can take over and take down a giant, but man, I have UCLA so good on both sides of the ball. This is a better team than last year. So, I mean, let's move them. Let's have a fun matchup there.

Connor, Purdue gone yet? Yeah, let's roll. Virginia Tech. Gobble, gobble. And San Francisco, I just don't think they can match inside. Is it Masowski, Masolowski, the forward? I think he's back. I think Golden said he could have played,

but they need a lot more than that against Kentucky. I'll put Kentucky through. So, guys, we're down to Elite Eights here. Let's go back to the top. Who's our biggest seed then, VTech? The biggest seed we got overall? Yeah, they're 11, right? 11,? Uh, the biggest seed we got overall. Yeah. They're 11,

right? 11. Yeah. We got Miami as a 10 through the Virginia tech is 11. We picked some other guys, some underdogs. That's good for us. I mean,

this is what, how you pick the perfect bracket. It can't all just be top seeds, you know? Uh, let's see here. Who's up? Who,

who picked Kentucky? Uh, it was me. I picked Kentucky. So now, uh, you're up, Andy. Gonzaga, UConn. It's still, I mean, it's still Mark Few and the boys. Like, we're rolling with it.

They're still the best team in the country. No pressure this year. They don't have that undefeated season, Matt. No pressure. Good point. That's a good point. Connor, who's going to join them? Texas Tech or Michigan State? I'll go with Texas Tech. that no pressure good point that's a good point connor who's going to join them uh texas tech or

michigan state um i'll go with texas tech i think that this is when michigan state's run comes to an end all right we're going to go across now really build the drama arizona houston i can't do it if they had their full team from earlier this year before they lost their two players, I could put him through. But again, this is the chalky bracket for me. It absolutely isn't looking at it. Wildcats go through. Andy gets a tough one.

Tennessee, Villanova. Man, I have Tennessee ahead of Nova in my numbers. I'd make the – on a neutral here, where is this game going to get played? What region are we in if we're playing? Where's the South? I mean, regardless, I think it's going to be closer to Nashville. I think Tennessee would be favored in that game. People from Philly tell me Villanova is not part of Philadelphia.

It's outside the city, but it'll be closer. It'll be closer to Knoxville, Nashville. I said Nashville, Knoxville. So give me Tenney. Give me, give me the balls. Connor going down here. San Antonio they're saying in the chat. San Antonio. Got it. Kansas, Iowa. I'm going to go with Kansas. Yeah. Like that could be a good time.

I think today even take Kansas against the spread. If it's like, you know, three, four or something like that, five, I think that Kansas take Kansas against the spread. If it's like, you know, three, four, something like that. Five. I think that Kansas could roll them. It is funny how this works out. I cannot put LSU. I just can't do it. Not without a coach with a strongest offense. Yes. I'm going with Laranega magic.

Again, Miami goes through. We got, 10 is realistic. I don't care. They beat Duke on the road. They beat Wake Forest on the road. They beat Virginia tech on the road. They beat Virginia Tech on the road.

So call me crazy. We'll put him. I like that. Like, yeah, you're going to put LSU in the LES? I can't do that. Will Wade? I mean, they're winning it for Will? Strong-ass offer?

No way. It's like the Raiders making the playoffs. Doing it for Chucky here. Yeah, right. Andy, Baylor, UCLA. Good matchup. Yeah, this is actually pretty tough. I mean, seating because i have ucla pretty high but baylor that offense i'm i'm fine moving them on that's a really strong one seat we have really strong one seats this year it's not always the case

go ahead connor a little bit kentucky kentucky okay yeah Got it. This is where their run ends. All right. So we got – here we go. I guess I get to pick Gonzaga, Texas Tech. Guys, I just don't – I don't think the Zags have it. I don't. I think this is not as good a team as the past. I think Holmgren will get bodied in this game.

I think they can battle Timmy inside. I like the defense. I just don't like it. I'm not going to put Gonzaga through. I'm putting Texas Tech, Red Raiders. Guns out. Red Raiders going through. Going across Andy Gohead,

Arizona, Tennessee. Man, I might just take the Vols again. I think that defense... I'm not sure you see that kind of defense out in the out west i'm gonna have to think about my pack 12 defenses a little bit they can harass you and force a lot of turnovers that could be a problem so give me give me a three seed through love it totally love it going down to the bottom, Connor, Kansas, Miami. I'll go with Kansas here. Baylor, Kentucky. Listen, Calipari is tough in these spots. Am I going to put Baylor back in

the final four again? I am not. I will put Kentucky through. Let's say that Wheeler and Ty Ty start getting it going here and they get themselves through get a lot of offensive rebounds too inside against baylor one of the few teams that can so our final four guys before we get to the championship we have what texas tech where is it here yeah it's right there all right texas tech versus kentucky and tennessee versus kansas so andy you're up. Texas Tech, Kentucky. Oh, that's a nasty defense. Am I just going to pick defensive teams in this era of fun basketball? The Rick Barnes love is strong.

This one I need a second. I mean, this is a good Final Four. I think that this is a good amount of diversity. It's not all one seeds. It's not all one seeds. It's not all upsets. We have one, two, three. It's a good mix here. Yeah, slight edge to that. Man, it's just such a good defense against such a good offense.

I almost said slight edge to Texas Tech. They've been here recently. It's an experienced team going against a pretty experienced coaching staff over the other half but so we'll go slight edge to the red raiders wow great i love it connor tennessee kansas that's a tough one too oh man tennessee kansas um yeah i think i like kansas here i think that we'll go with kansas i think that they're a good contender. Well, if it comes down to me to pick the championship, Kansas, Texas Tech.

I remember when Bill Self won his first title against Memphis in overtime, and I always laugh because he wiped his brow, guys. It just shows it was relief. It wasn't celebration. We got a big 12 matchup here. I just think they have enough offense to get through so i will put the jayhawks through here as our champion in our our bracket of integrity our one bracket here uh what do you think we have and if you wanted to redo the bracket

we know who the 16th seed is and one of these so if we want to change anything texas southern did get through over texas corporate yeah i think we'll probably keep that pick the same yeah i mean that could be our bracket swinger you got to submit this mike i mean this is like i don't know what what thing you're on here but i mean we gotta we gotta get this submitted yeah in the books whatever we win like an acura i think or something like that if that. If, if we win, you know, like we'll do a hundred percent. I'll get it in. Yep. Acura.

We need the point. Oh, what's the point? Give me points. Okay. Okay. Oh boy. I mean,

so last time they played, uh, it went to double OT. So 94, 91 was earlier in the season. They also played and Texas tech one, 75, 67.

So we will go with third time.'re playing we'll go with like 72 68 i'm fine with that maybe i was gonna say maybe a little higher i went right to ken paul like these teams have certainly played a couple times we just go look what they did before love it awesome right on an hour that's pretty good