Move The Line - 2022 NFL Awards Market

Episode Date: May 12, 2022

Move The Line hosts Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, and John Daigle discuss what's the NFL Futures market, with a deep dive on the Awards market.Hosts: Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, John Daigle, Move the LineFollow Us On:TwitterFacebookYouTubeDiscord 4for4 NFL Draft Odds & Betting TrackerMove the Line Bets Tracker Get a FREE 4for4 Pro Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit)Want a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMGet a FREE 4for4 Pro Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit) 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wtvfuhEmail: [e-mail]

Hello and welcome to move the line presented by FanDuel with a promo code four for four new FanDuel users can take advantage of their risk-free bet get up to a thousand dollars back if you don't win download the FanDuel sportsbook app today enter a promo code four for four and take advantage I'm Ryan Noonan joined here as always by my friends Connor Allen, John Daigigle. Connor, what's going on? Not much, man. I'm feeling a lot better than last week. It was a pretty rough scene for me on here, especially. I mean, even before the show, Daigle was not convinced that I would last even 20 minutes and we went for two hours. So feeling a lot better. Voice is back, you know feeling good nice stagle you've been busy man grinding redraft and best ball in news and everything what's going on with you my friend

john paulson's projections come out friday their first release which means next week is very very big at four for four between best ball tiers my write-ups coming out also working on some other articles like exploiting the default ranks i've been very busy across sites and best ball tiers, my write-up's coming out. Also working on some other articles, like exploiting the default ranks. I've been very busy across sites and best ball. Underdog's our partner, but we know that I like to get busy in the streets. So, yeah, it's been a very busy time, but also next week is very, very big. So looking forward to it. Also, I have a bone to pick.

Which one of you created the tweet to promote this show this afternoon that would be uh producer sal um okay who is not not here i am absolutely shocked thing because i expected to yell at one of you because the tweet yet again mentioned central time zone when i'm trying to make it clear to everyone and oh no no that was me that was me that was okay yeah i thought you were talking about that's what i thought yeah no that was me why why what's wrong you don't like to operate on central time zone i got your show is not for people that only live near you the show is the only time zone that matters dagle it's actually the worst as someone who has quite literally lived in every time zone central is definitely the worst i mean it just it covers no there's not

really good yeah no i don't know i got i got nothing i got nothing what so what do you prefer you prefer eastern central pacific all just to make sure that you don't offend anyone or is that uh it's not offensive imagine if you wanted to see a show on in colorado let's say someone's hosting from there and then they put it in mountain time like would you even be able to configure that without thinking first everyone works from eastern first of all yes because i'm not a moron but i get your points we've you and i have gone down this road i get reprimanded uh during a pat mayo uh experience visits where i I cited one of the show times as being central time and he said, what the fuck is central time?

Pat doesn't even, he lives in like, I don't know, he's in like, I don't know, Prince Edward Island or something. He's not even in Eastern time. He is east of Eastern time. So he is marine time or whatever that is. What is opposite Hawaii time?

I think we've gone down a road now where we just look ignorant. is uh you know marine time or whatever that is yeah what what is opposite hawaii time i think we're so i think we've gone down a road now where we just look ignorant yeah so i get it daigle made a good point pat made a good point that day i think that the world is used to it regardless of whether you live in eastern or not you've kind of fixed your brain to know what to do there so uh connor good for you though taking the bullet very easily could have thrown sal into the bus he's not here. He made the show this week in betting, which we then have turned this into an NFL awards show.

So we very much could have thrown Sal under the bus and had no problems doing so. Sal also lives in Toronto, so I knew he wasn't speaking in Singapore. He's in Vancouver. Vancouver, sorry, Vancouver. Now I'm just getting my Canadian mixed up. Yeah, he's all over so uh again uh award season we're gonna dip dip into uh some of the award markets that are out there again big day tomorrow again John mentioned some of the stuff that is coming down the pipeline at four

for four but tomorrow is scheduled release day too so like we have a lot of good stuff going on as far as that's going to be coming up in the next couple of shows. So like we're getting into divisional previews, we'll get into team stuff. That thing is a little bit more actionable once we have that schedule. Of course, we know who everyone's playing right now, but when you get a, an understanding of what the order is, what those, the cadence of days off road games, all of those things, it's a little bit better for, for that to dive in. So we'll pause on that, look for that for the coming weeks. Reminder that we are doing a show every week, every Wednesday in the spot in the off season.

So subscribe, rate, and review, whether you're listening to podcast, forum, YouTube, super appreciate it. Betting sub at 444 is gonna get you access to everything on the site. We highly recommend that. It is a profitable venture for you. You will get all of the work that Daigle is doing on the underdog side. You'll get Paulson's rankings. You'll get

literally access to everything. League sync if you're playing standard league still, all that stuff, all the betting stuff. Love it because we're still rocking and rolling with betting, even though it's not football season. We still have lots of stuff, NBA, MMA, golf, lots of stuff going on. So gentlemen, awards. Let's kick it off at the very top of the board. We will share our new awards odds future page here on the site under the betting tab here. Dig into the MVP market to start. Before we start, I guess I want to circle back.

Connor, you can leave that up. Talk to me about how you approach futures. How do you allocate funds? Do you have a set amount of funds that you allocate for this market? Basically, how do you approach this? Again, knowing that you're basically holding cash or credits in some instances, if you can, for months. Obviously, we're not getting paid out on the majority of these until January, sometimes February. Yeah. I mean, in large field markets like MVP, a lot of the ones we're going to talk about today, I like to bet longer shots or at least something that is over 10 to 1 or 15 to 1 at the bare minimum. A lot of that is because when you bet

in the chalk onto large field markets, so much can go wrong. And like you said, you're tying up your money for the longest, like months, like, you know, three quarters of a year, potentially, depending on when you bet it. So, you know, while we're looking at it here, Josh Allen is like, rightfully one of the top bets to be the MVP plus 700. But on the other hand, I mean, there's just so much that can go wrong with that. There's so like so many other guys can play well and you're not getting paid out enough i think so that's kind of my strategy like just really don't bet the chalk and very rarely do we see the chalk hit in my opinion at least what i've noticed over the past couple years so that's just generally been my strategy

now it's a different strategy on like you know player process or binary obviously i'm willing to take minus 110 on those because the expected value and your edge is way way higher i don't mind betting quote unquote chalk usually what i see is the chalk is not typically the public chalk so that's fine but i do know it becomes chalk most of the time by week one so if anything i would just stress getting in early. If you think a favorite should be the favorite, but it's not just yet. And that's the way I will handle it. If I'm betting these markets. Yeah. We'll start with MVP. MVP is a, it's a quarterback award at this point, right? It is 12 of the last 13 have been quarterbacks. The lone stand out there is the 2012 season of Adrian Peterson. And again, that feels like a million

years ago in relation to how the game is played and how this is done nowadays. We've had some fairly terrific, Derrick Henry obviously jumps to mind as far as running back performances. A great receiving performance is often going to be tied to that quarterback as well. So even those things seem to lead this to be a quarterback award. Even if you take a look at some markets have offensive player of the year, if you look at that, it's almost exclusively non-quarterbacks. The quarterbacks are buried in that because they've basically relegated offensive player of the year to guys that are not QBs. So you start to see running backs, receivers at the top of that board. So we won't go long on that one today. But quarterbacks at the top makes sense.

As you see, you know, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady. There's lots of buzz. Again, you can see here discrepancy with books. So if you have a preference here, there are not a lot of different numbers on Josh Allen. But if you tickle a Justin Herbert down low, Patrick Mahomes at DraftKings is a look. These things tend to even out as we get closer to week one, Dagle.

Any thoughts here at the very top of the board, obviously littered with quarterbacks? There are only three players I would bet in this market, and two of them are favorites, so people don't want to bet them anyhow. And that would be Tom Brady or Russell Wilson. I think the most logical long shot, not even a long shot really at 25 to one right now, but would be Lamar Jackson since everything the Ravens have done this off

season has been trying to tell us they are not the offense of last year. I think we talked about this post-draft in our draft grade show. But literally think about how much had to happen in order for the Ravens to become what they were last year. Between starting running backs going down by being unlucky, essentially, with pre-week one injuries. Followed by offensive line and defensive line injuries. And then that, of course, created an uptick in negative game scripts. And the offense needing to score points. They do not want to be that.

Lamar Jackson is MVP year. Yes, teams only had five games of film on him in his second year when he won MVP in 2019. But he did throw 20 more touchdowns and only three games played. So with a career high, 32 pass attempts per game last year, which is five more per game than any other season he's had, they want to go back to Lamar Jackson being the running quarterback and playing defense. Everything they did, even in drafting multiple tight ends in the fourth round this year,

tells they want to run jumbo packages now that Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins are both back. And that's not necessarily bad for Lamar Jackson's MVP role. Yes, it's probably bad for fantasy for trying to shove in ancillary stack options, but last year was the time to stack them anyways, given what we knew about regression. This is not the year to stack Lamar Jackson. I think he can single-handedly get this done. So yeah, I think that's the farthest I'd go down the board. Connor, I like the Lamar number two, obviously 25 to one. The one thing that is interesting here, the other quarterback MVP trend that I found that I thought was noteworthy was that the quarterback here is basically had an 11 win to 12 win minimal

season. So not only are we looking at a quarterback that's performing well, we're looking at a quarterback tied to a winning team. So the Lamar story is that you're telling yourself is that they return to where they are at the top of that division because if they're going to still be middling at, say, 10 and 7 or something like that, that's going to be a hard. Again, doesn't mean that that's a trend. Doesn't mean that it can't be broken. You'd have to have a hell of a season for them to kind of be a fringe playoff team to win the MVP.

But again, I kind of agree in the points that Daigle said at 25 to one makes a lot of sense. So with that in mind too, knowing that we have to have some W's attached to the quarterback as well, what's a good look for you at the top? Yeah. So, I mean, just to rehash quickly what you said, I mean, quarterbacks have won 11 of the last 12 years and that every quarterback who's won the MVP has won 11 or more games in during that same time span. So you have to bet on a quarterback on a winning team kind of using those parameters. I think that there are some good longer shots and because we've seen in the past few years. So a guy like Lamar Jackson was like 75 to 100 to one to win MVP. A guy like Patrick Mahomes was 100 to one to an MVP when he won.

You know, like there there are plenty of examples. I think Aaron Rodgers was a little chalkier, but I think he was even, you know, like whatever, 40 to one in some places last year as well. So I think you're able to kind of go further down the board, but, you know, like kind of projecting which teams fit into those parameters or like quarterbacks could fit into those parameters kind of is how you find the value there. So kind of going further down the board, I really, really like your Russell Wilson call. I think 16 to one is a good look.

That's probably the highest actually that I would play in terms of like something chalkier just because I think if they win the division, I think Russell Wilson's almost certainly in the MVP conversation and probably more of like a, you know, three or four to one kind of look like closer to the end of the season. But like a longer shot that I kind of like further down the board, I got like Jalen Hurts 40 to one at Caesars. I mean, we talked about this on our last show. The Eagles could very easily win the division.

If they're winning the division, they're probably in that 11-12 win range. I mean, if he takes that step forward, they got A.J. Brown. They have a top three offensive line, you know, according to most metrics. Like, I think that he's in a great position to succeed. It's a very volatile bet. Obviously, it's 40-1. You know, I'm not putting a full unit on that. But I think that at that point, kind of the expectations that we have for them,

I think it's certainly in play. Now it would, it would take a lot, but I think it's, it's viable. Something that I like there. If you want to go even further down, I know our boy Dalton Cates in the chat here, and I both played Trey Lance MVP at 150 to one, 200 to one, that's down to 60 to one. This point is probably not playable for me, considering we're not even sure if he's going to start. But I think that he has that kind of volatile range of outcomes that you're kind of looking for if you're taking a long shot. You shouldn't be betting on boring guys who have no chance. I mean, you shouldn't be betting on Cooper Cup. We kind of went through that. You shouldn't be betting on any running backs.

These are the kinds of long shots you're taking one last long shot. I mean, something that's gotten bet down a little bit, opened up 150 to one to a tongue of Iloa 75 to one right now. Good Lord. I mean, I mean, we did this last year and we did it seriously.

We did. We played out. We did. We did. We got to get fresh material. You can't go see, if I go see a standup act from two to three years ago, I know that some of that stuff is on the shelf. They've been in the lab. They've been working on new material. You can't go see, if I go see a standup act from two to three years ago, I know

that some of that stuff is on the shelf. They've been in the lab, they've been working on new material. You got to find some new material. Yeah. But I mean, Lamar looks like, you know, Helen Keller, I mean, heading into his like MVP season, he was legitimately dreadful. He couldn't, he couldn't come back. Like I was just saying, Patrick Holmes was like a nobody. I mean, to look, I mean, they added Ty they added tyreek it could happen he looks stronger the throw today that went around twitter was a disaster but um i don't know you guys have any other long shots that you think like could play out i'm not saying that they're ones that you like love and you're rushing to bet but ones that you can kind of like tell yourself a story and say like oh it's possible i mean we

have seen in recent years yeah i don't hate to uh uh but i i don't love you again we have to tell ourselves the story that they're like a 12 win football team which they kind of have to do historically over the last you have to beat the bills and i can't you know i can't get there and that's kind of it like i think too it can be a i think it's better than what we've seen i think another year being healthy is great but uh you know an nvp bet is is not something that uh i'm gonna i'm gonna dabble into yeah i mean i kind of like the rust like you said at the top corner i think the rust is kind of um i think they're a play shorter that make a lot of sense i mean obviously josh allen makes a lot of sense

even though he's chalk um at the top of the board but uh you uh, you know, I'm kind of with kind of good with the top tier of, you know, maybe picking a Josh Allen or Russ getting a little bit of Lamar. Um, there's just not a ton of, of long shots that I love. Um, if we go up the Jalen Hurts numbers is worth a look to at 40. On Russ quickly, he was last year, the only quarterback who had thrown at least 30 touchdown passes in four consecutive seasons and the only reason he fell short of doing it for a fifth consecutive season last year was because he played through that mallet finger from week 10 on last year was also the first time he didn't lead the league and percentage of targets thrown into the end zone for the first time since

2018 and just imagine how much ancillary talent he has now, much more and past pro than Seattle had. So that's why I think everything points up for Russell Wilson. Yeah, I agree. I think that that's probably a good look for sure. We have some ones in the comments here too that I think are interesting. A guy from our Discord here, Dane, is interested in Danny Dimes 150 to one to an MVP. I mean, that's, I think, a leap forward because, like he mentions, they would have to win the division. He is an athletic QB, though, gets Brian Dable. He has some weapons, I guess. I don't know. It's tough for me to get there, but at 150 to one, I think you could do worse. Well, the difference in Daniel Jones for best ball for rushing equity

and like Daniel Jones MVP is clearly like the the Red Sea right like it's just like it's so it's so big like you're talking remember Daniel Jones was compared to Josh Allen last year his number one receiver is still a player who hasn't been good in two years hasn't been healthy in two years like it'll be literally the first time Kenny Galladay has done anything for three years if he performs well this offseason Kadarius Tony isn't even going to be on the field they were already trying to replace him pre-draft um so I I don't know man Saquon Barkley I'm still not even convinced he I'm not 100 convinced he's going to be on the active roster in week one like I genuinely think it comes down given that they can save money by cutting cutting him in his final year i think it generally comes down to whether he's fully healthy in training camp i don't think they bring him along slowly

since they already try to trade him and of course no one wants a running back who hasn't gone over 100 yards in two years who's consistently injured totally good point i get it like you can tell yourself the story and it's 150 to one, but, um, because again, just not a, not a way that I allocate bankroll, um, as far as tying up, uh,

a lot like that. Get on Daniel Jones, 50 to one. This is the way you allocate bankroll. Yeah. He's coming into the chat here with, uh, Mac Jones,

a hundred to one. I mean, I just don't know. We're literally just looking starting quarterbacks, um, at triple digits and throwing them out there. And it's just there have there has been some hype for Matt Jones second year and that the offense will change. I will be dead before I bet a quarterback for MVP who doesn't even have an OC who like

being week one without an OC. It's going to be between four different guys, two of them that shouldn't have jobs. I mean, the only way that he could even be in the conversation is if they have like the most dominant running game in football and most dominant defense and win like 15 16 games and he like throws no interceptions like and even then i don't even know if he'd get there and that's like that just like seems like a stretch they're never going to open the they're not like they told us they're not going to like open it up and just sling it around the yard now like they don't have the personnel to do it so no this is a very very pro mac jones vibe over here um and i can't i can't get there with

good faith and tell you that like i think you could be a winning quarterback and help them win more games than anyone expects them to do again this year just like you did last year they're not winning the division um you know again barring a josh allen injury um they are more so fighting with with miami to be that second team there's just not a scenario where mac is winning the mvp at this point so they just don't have the pieces to help him get there and that's part of this too so um yeah i i do think jordan makes a good point uh whatever qb wins the afc west gets the mvp yeah i, the best longest shot on the board here is you can find 40s on Derek Carr. I don't like that quite as much, but again, I can see

that because that is going to be just a dogfight of a division. That kind of leads me back to Russ. I do think narrative plays a role here too, more than we ever want it to be. And we'll get back to a really good start for Denver. We'll be seven, eight games in, they'll be rolling and everyone will be talking about Russ has never even had an MVP vote in his entire career. And like, we'll start to like drum up that again. And if they continue to roll, I think you get some groundswell of like pro Russ media. And we see this in the NBA at times too,

where there's like voter fatigue for NBA. And it's like, should Giannis get the award almost every year kind of like even if yokich has a great year again next year he probably doesn't win the mvp regardless because people are kind of tired of voting for him um especially with some of the blowback on the mb stuff this year we see that we'll see that the nfl too like we just get kind of tired of all right aaron rogers no matter what he does this year he has crossed off the list they'll want to get some new blood. Mahomes would have to have kind of a super Mahomes season.

That's why Josh Allen, even at the top of the board, makes a lot of sense and why kind of I think the number gets shorter on Russ. So Brady's the one they do not get tired of, especially knowing that it's probably his last year after he walked away for 13 minutes last season. And then also average 318 yards and three touchdowns per game when Chris Godwin was on the field. It's just that everyone's last memory without him was the playoffs

when he had no Chris Godwin, no Leonard Fournette, and no Antonio Brown. And then, of course, average six and a half yards per attempt. I think the answer very clearly is actually Tom Brady. Interesting. This is also not surprising. Feinberg chiming in with Justin Herbert. So hard to disagree, Jeff. 14 on bet MGM is probably a pretty good look. Again, there are lots of signs pointing to the Chargers being a sexy team.

And Herbert, again, could very well be because we love him. The media loves him. He's done no wrong. They've kind of been the, Oh shucks fallen short team for the last decade or so. Again, if they're trending well, he is going to be much shorter than 14 come week eight.

So no problem with the Herbert looks as well. All right, Connor, what do we get next? All right. We are moving to a comeback player of the year um so this is an interesting award because there isn't much like trends there isn't many stats on you know kind of like who wins the award typically it's mostly kind of award that's dictated by

players coming back from injury or some kind of like feel good story. So some examples, Alex Smith, Andrew Luck, Jordy Nelson, Keenan Allen, Joe Burrow, some examples of, you know, guys who came back from injury and are now, you know, playing significantly better. You know, maybe they're not the best player in the league, but they're coming back and playing to a point where they are, you know, competent. So let me pull up the odds board here for everyone to look at. So at the top here, we have Derek Henry plus 350 to win the award. Deshaun Watson, another favorite here, plus 700. And the rest of the board is pretty interesting. I don't know. I think last year there was a few pretty good examples or ones that, you know, are actually reasons not to bet the chalk of, you know, Dak Prescott, as well as Saquon Barkley were both favorites in this market last year and uh and ended up being Joe Burrow you know a little bit longer down the board so do any of you guys have takes on this market or any anyone you like here at the top yeah I'll kick it to you Dagle at 14 of the last 20 have gone to quarterbacks as Connor said most coming off major injury I don't know where um excessive hand jobs ranks in comeback uh qualifications i i don't know i don't know this is kind of the funniest part of comeback player of the year what's that i had

to think about that one for a second i just don't know what like the prerequisite of like what are you coming back from like are you coming like he's coming back from what being like a dry one people people will get stoned, but they're in Jerusalem all over again. If they know it won't happen. Right. They can't, they can't tie their name to that.

Right. Like that's what I was thinking about. Like people, the people that will, the one person that voted against Aaron Rogers because he was not vaccinated for MVP. Like that was bad enough. You,

you remember the vitriol on social media now take for all the allegations against Deshaun Watson. But under, you know, just a guy who was still expected to go to court may get suspended. Like, imagine all those things. There's no way in hell. There's no way. I like Trubisky. Like, what's he coming back from? Not having a job?

It's not Trubisky. Do you know what I mean? You may not even start with me. Yeah. So this is, you know, he might not have a job it's not true but you know what i mean like it's may not even start with me yeah so this is you know he might not have a job again so um just the prerequisite of like what actually qualifies you to be listed here again a lot of it as we've seen these are injuries for the most part uh mario the same instance uh you know coming back from not having a starting job for multiple years i don't really understand it. Jeff asking, can Tua win? Like, oh, wants to drop me again.

Well, we got Noonan in the stream with audio only. So we will keep rolling anyways. We can still hear you, but well, until now. My only lean would be Michael Thomas. And it seems like we have a comment in the chat for that. And that's because injury, of course, but also just the fact that he still averaged 10 targets per game, 10.3 targets per game the past two seasons prior to, you know,

trying to return in 2020 on those seven games. So, yeah, like I think Michael Thomas can be a target hog yet again in return because that's all the storyline was last year, right? It was so easy to dwindle down between either Joe Burrow or Dak Prescott because both were coming back from injury. And I think that's all the comeback player of the year really is. I think that's a pretty good way to almost add to your position if you're into Michael Thomas in fantasy,

like kind of betting on this as well because you're getting a 10-1 return on that. If you think he's going to be good in fantasy, you're drafting him in, I believe the fifth, sixth round ADP, maybe even fourth in some drafts. Like you should also be betting this because like you said, you know, if he is the guy that, you know, we've seen in previous years prior to his injury, basically is the lone target in this offense. I mean, he could absolutely smash. So I think that's a pretty good look. Another one that I like further down the board, Christian McCaffrey, 18 to one now going, I mean, I think the Panthers are going to be pretty bad, but I don't think that really matters

too much to this award. He's going to get fed a ton. I mean, they literally fired Joe Brady because they weren't running the ball enough. Now I assume they're going to run the ball a ton, kind of make him the focal point of their offense. And he's coming back from an injury. So I don't really, you know, Dalton mentioned it. So I don't really, you know, Dalton mentioned it earlier. I don't really understand the disparity between Derek Henry at plus three 50 and Christian McCaffrey at 18 to one. I mean, that just seems like a massive, like mispricing in terms of the market because McCaffrey is going to see a ton of work here. So, I mean, I think you should be closer to like, you know, whatever, eight to one,

nine to one, kind of in that range rather than 18 to one. Yeah. I don't know what to make of that either. It's, there's just some weird ones down here that I don't really know. Again, I'm trying to think of like putting my mind in as a voter, like what am I considering? Like who actually even registers for some of these? Cause we see some of these guys don't even have a market for them because maybe they're not really in consideration for what would qualify them to be eligible for this award. So it's really tricky. You know, I expect big things from Juju Smith-Schuster this year. A nice move to Kansas City. Again, a young, talented, ascending player before the injuries.

And now, like, he played the majority of the year last year. He's now in a great offense that has some big holes to fill. I think he has a really nice year. Does he register in voters' minds for like a comeback player of the year? I don't know. He's a similar buy low to Michael Thomas, who I think is also a good play, as Dagle mentioned. So that part of it is kind of hard for me to register

because I think we do have to keep ourselves in the mind of a voter, and I just can't really like wrestle with some of the stuff i don't really know what those prerequisites are when someone's making this vote so a lot of it too is going to be narrative driven in the season and i think the henry to mcafree thing is that henry's also tied to a team that's been mostly a playoff performer the last couple years so if he's back in fully full strength and they're still in playoff mix versus McCaffrey's on a team that we're expecting to maybe be in middle lane in the season, maybe the bottom, and picking very early again next year.

So he'd have to do some pretty tremendous things to be Comeback Player of the Year in my mind if they're terrible. But again, this one's a little bit harder to put my thumb on. Yeah, no, that's very fair. Jeff Feinberg brought up some other good ones here in the chat uh chase young uh 20 to 1 i think is you know somewhat interesting if he comes back and just absolutely crushes it um you know it isn't really it isn't really a year with a ton of guys that i like at the top i think michael thomas is a good shot by daigle but again i think deshaun watson's

just like a massive fish play um Even if he has a great season. I mean, Jameis Winston is coming back from what? You know, like. Well, he got hurt in the middle of the season, but I mean. LASIK, I guess. Yeah, he was hurt for a little bit, but still. That's the point. So it's a strange one to me.

I would advise holding off. This market is not a market that I am going to be dabbling in because there seems to be a ton of variables like i like the chase young look but like he's not even available in some spots which kind of goes to tell you that like the books don't even know really how to price some of the stuff and the books that he is priced at he's at like 16. so he's not like a super duper long shot you know what i mean so kind of a tricky one Yeah, let's move on to defensive play over the year. A little bit easier to get into. For the most part, we have three big dogs at the top here. We have the 2020 winner, Aaron Donald. We have last year, their winner, TJ Watts, along with, I believe, the preseason favorite last year, which is Miles Garrett. Winning is important,

but you don't have to win historically for defensive player of the year. You can have a dominant season. You know, TJ Watt, obviously the Steelers snuck into the playoffs last year at the end, but Watt was probably going to win that award regardless because of his sack total. So this doesn't have to fit the MVP mode where we need to be on a strong winner day. Any thoughts at the top of the board? Just like defensive rookie of the year, it really comes down to sacks. And so I don't even really think too long about this one. I don't really bet it because to me it should just have Aaron Donald's name on it because that's where the conversation always should start.

And then from there, if someone has a good number, but otherwise not too many thoughts to be quite honest with you. I mean, there's like five, there's like five guys who I think really, I mean, are, this, this market is very top heavy. I mean, it's these, you know, whatever, five guys here at the top, I think that all are just, you know, really, really strong looks and Garrett Watts, Donald Parsons and Nick Bosa. So it's kind of tough to get like out of those uh you know we have some some chase chase young shouts uh in the back here we got 25 to 1 on him i mean again he is the type of player that i think could probably make a vault but beyond that we've seen

donald won it i mean three of the last four years before last season uh prior to him it was like you mentioned the jj watt award won three times from 2012 to 2015. Svon Gilmore was the last corner to win it since Rod Woodson in 2009. So really, I think betting on a corner, especially given kind of the current atmosphere of corners, is probably not a sharp thing to do. I think you're looking at probably a pass rusher, like a dominant pass rusher. So if you want to get a little bit crazy down the board, I think chase young 25 to one's not a bad look. But other than that, I think that you're best off just kind of picking your favorite at the top here among those five guys that I listed. Also remembers to find Gilmore was the product of a

bad year to pick that award. No one did anything. And so they just gave it to the best cornerback in the league. Even he didn't really deserve it, honestly. So it was kind of a give up that year. Yeah. Chandler Jones for that same premise, 66 on MGM. Again, Sacks, you know, moving to Vegas, you have a new team there. You know, he goes out and, you know, puts up 20. I think he's in the mix deeper down the board who, again, this is a guy that has the ability to put up Sacks, some of the guys at the top of the board, but we're getting him at significantly deeper odds. The question we need answered is why is Darius Leonard wearing a hat, Connor?

Can we scroll down to Darius Leonard's picture here? It's pretty magical. Yeah, not entirely sure what's going on there. I don't know, but I love it. And it was worth a highlight. Easter egg. Yeah. Love know, but I love it. And it was worth a highlight. Easter egg. Yeah. Love it. Shout out Sports Data. We appreciate you.

Yeah, so Saks Saks are king. There's a reason that these three guys, or really even the six guys I think you see here above the fold are here. They make a ton of sense. They are on for the most part national teams will have lots of primetime games

and those things matter too. And while sacks are important, I don't know that they're necessarily always the best indicator, but again, this is how these awards are given out and you're compiling that number and that stat, you're going to be in the mix for this one. So I expect these five, six guys to be prominently featured.

That's why I like Chandler Jones as kind of a deep buried play because he's checking that same box. You know, Trey Hendricks is similar, but Hendricks is even shorter than Chandler Jones. I think Chandler Jones is a better player. So that'd be as deep as I would go. I just keep struggling to take, and I'm not saying everyone is off, but I keep struggling to consider Chase Young as a serious candidate, just because thinking about the kind of game scripts they'll likely be in with Carson Wentz. But at the same time, it didn't matter for T.J. Watt,

we talked about earlier, with Ben Rotzberger, who shouldn't have been in there anyways. And also the Washington per Warren Sharp strength of schedule right now does have the league's easiest projected schedule, which certainly helps. So maybe if they can establish some kind of running game, they will be in favorable game scripts. So, Trace Young, yeah, I think there's ways to look at it from both sides. Move on to the rookies, Connor, offensive rookie of the year.

We have 15 of the past 18 were first-round picks. Nine of those were QBs, the outliers in that uh alvin kamara dac and eddie lacy which is very interesting um when there's a viable qb in the mix they often win now this is an interesting year we have a qb at the top of the board but really outside of that um we don't really have you know it was only the one quarterback in the first round so it is an interesting year where we might have a non-qb in the mix we see Kenny Pickett there as the favorite everywhere else but then again lots of other first round picks uh Dago what are your thoughts here on offensive rookie of the year I think for wide receivers there's no one that gets maybe more

targets easily but also more efficient targets than Traylon Burks. He makes the most sense by a mile to be the breakout wide receiver. I don't trust Jahan Dodson even starting from Carson Wentz. Don't trust Garrett Wilson from Zach Wilson. The list goes on and on and on. Chris Olave, sure, but also he has a hump there with Michael Thomas, who we still believe is the more superior wide receiver and also gets targets in easier to catch spots.

So we expect the stats to be better at least. So I only get to Traylon Burks. Having said that, I think there is a long shot possibility in Desmond Ritter, if only because this offense is going to be so bad. And more importantly, the offensive line is already bad and only got worse this off season and the players they lost i saw ben baldwin why am i why i lost his name uh ben baldwin mentioned espn's pass blocking statistics individually for offensive linemen and if you look at the bottom 20 he screenshotted on twitter

three of falcons starting offensive linemen are actually in the bottom nine like this offensive line is not capable of pass blocking for a quarterback we don't even think is capable of running the offense and so of course it makes sense to get Desmond Ritter in there and so even if Kenny Pickett starts I don't think it matters at all like I don't care um I think Ritter's the long shot you want to pick here and just hope he succeeds I don't I don't, I don't even think he can succeed in year one, but that's what I'm willing to put, you know, your 20 to 50 bucks on and let it sit there and burn until January. You know, I'm not betting

really any other option here. Yeah. I like the Ritter call for that same reason. I think that makes a ton of sense. And I think that's another reason why a little bit further down the board, I wish it was longer down the board is Matt Corral, because again, if quarterbacks are in the mix here, they're going to be viable. He's probably not day one starter, but again, like an injury, something happens. He gets to start the majority of those games and is, is decent at all. Again, like, I think if you're playing into this market,

I think your best bet is to sprinkle at the non-day one starters malik willis desmond ritter matt corral knowing that if something happens between now and then your best bet is that that's going to be significantly shorter right you're going to have some massive closing line value uh comparatively to where we are now so um versus like splitting hairs because i can get there on Drake London, similar to Trelon Burks, where I just think like poor offenses, minimal target competition, they're all kind of in the same boat for me.

Whereas if all of a sudden Matt Corral or Desmond Ritter is starting week two, week three, they're very much in the mix. Knowing that Kenny Pickett may not start on week one. And if he does, might not keep his job all season long as well. So again, like in this quarterback class,

it might come down to game started. And even though these guys might not be pegged for day one, they very much could lead their team and start. So that would be how I would approach this Connor. What are your thoughts? Yeah. I'm not sure I can really get there with like the quarterbacks that, you know,

aren't immediately starting just because I mean, for the reasons you guys mentioned, they're not going to play well when they are the starter because they're in terrible situations. And that's like, especially with a guy like Ritter, I would probably want something closer to 20, 25 to one. But at the same time, I think that this market is pretty tough. I thought that Traylon Burks and Drake London

are in by far the best situations to receive work. I mean, this, as you mentioned at the top, like this is not necessarily a quarterback market, just six of the last 12 winners have been quarterbacks. So, you know, the other last or the other two have been wide receivers and the other four were running backs. So, I mean, I think that this wide receiver class in particular, a lot of draft capital, most of them went to at least good situations to get volume. I think that guys like London or Berks are probably the favorites, even though, you know, London may not be very efficient with his targets. You mentioned Olave. I think that kind of taking a speculative play on that, if Michael Thomas does not progress, could be a good look at like 10,

12 to one. And same with Jameson Williams, if his rehab's coming back, I think that that's interesting as well, because, you know, he's in a pretty good situation. coming back, I think that that's interesting as well because he's in a pretty good situation. I know that there are other guys there who will command targets, but I think that I'm more attracted to the skill players here rather than the quarterbacks just because this award hasn't necessarily historically been a quarterback market in general. I will refute the wide receiver comment. Cause it took two of the greatest wider rookie wide receiver ever two of the greatest rookie wide receiver seasons ever as well to win those awards and Jamar chase and Justin Jefferson.

Like those were top tier prospects to begin with Jamar chase profile is 21 year old Des Bryant and Justin Jefferson actually outperformed Jamar chase when they played together. So like, like they, they were all, those two guys were in a league of their own. So like, I don't care that they won up into rookie of the year. They like, they could have also been thrown in for MVP for all I care. And so like, I don't, I don't know if I consider it really a wide receiver award just for two anomaly situations. Yeah, I guess, I guess that's fair, but it's not like, I mean, they're, they're going off the board here, like comparing to like, it's not just wide receivers

are winning. If the point is that it's not quarterbacks, right? Like it's just not always quarterbacks. Uh, so like, you know, running backs who are thrown into good situations, a lot of the ones that are not in the first round were running backs that ended up winning. Um, so I guess looking further down the board, guys who could have see some work, you know, a guy like Rashad White could, you know, like, I mean, maybe James Cook, you know, like those guys could end up seeing enough work, but that's pretty thin. These are just, yeah, these are just so, these are different situations than last year though for the rookies. Yeah.

Yeah. I guess like we still need, like it would be Brees Hall or Kenneth Walker, in my opinion, who wants to be called Ken Walker now because they only have one hill, right? One player gets out of the way and the backfield is theirs, whereas there are so many other hoops to jump for the others. They're not in good situations. And they also don't have the skill set to be used in such situations.

Yeah, I don't know why we're pretending – I mean, the issue with these guys – We're pretending like Rashad White is next man up if something were to happen. We're not. We're not. No, no, no. I mean, he's like 60 to 1.

So, you know, it's like, you know, well, I mean, like guys like Brees Hall and Kenneth Walker, as you mentioned, are probably the likeliest candidates outside of the first round to, you know, win this award. But at the same time, like they're priced accordingly. One, so 9 to 1 Brees Hall, 12 to 1 for Kenneth Walker. And they also have like, you know, I would say substantial issues with them being successful in terms of Brees Hall playing on the jets and having to some kind of split and workload

with Michael Carter and the Kenneth Walker playing on the Seahawks and not catching passes. So I think those are both pretty substantial, you know, roadblocks for them as well. I mean, honestly, the more that we talk about this, the more I think that this award kind of sucks and that the current landscape is pretty brutal. It represents this class. We've known all along this class. It's just the time of the year where everyone likes talking about rookies, but

never forget, we knew two months ago this was a bad class. Yeah, I kind of agree. There's some other darts maybe, but again, we're super thin, and it's not great. Move on to the defensive rookie of the year. A little less than, some stuff at the top.

Trend here is pretty strong. We have 29 of the past 32 winners were first-round picks. All 32 were selected in the top 40. So early day two guys, which there are a few here defensively would have a chance theoretically to be viable plays uh connor is there anything at the top of this market that is of interest to you i mean for this market it's it's again a little bit less scientific but and there aren't a ton of positional requirements but like the main factors you have to look for is a like a guy who's gonna play a lot and generally on team with a good defense. So we kind of look at the past winners. We have guys

like Micah Parsons. I mean, the Cowboys defense ended up being pretty solid last year. Chase Young on Washington, Nick Bosa, you know, like those guys are like guys who were key contributors on like good defenses or at least like, you know, not terrible defenses essentially. So I think that kind of like looking at that for the market, I think a guy that I know that the safety position is devalued, but like a guy like Kyle Hamilton could be interesting is like a longer shot, just like not right off the top of the board here. You know, like 10 to one, 11 to one here at bad MGM. But otherwise I think that Hutchinson and Thibodeau are pretty hard to get off in terms of guys that are going to have, you know, good numbers,

but again, they don't, they don't play on like good defenses. So I think that they, they might not get the notoriety, you know, of, of some, some other guys further down the board who could like kind of leap into this discussion.

If they have, you know, a couple of good games, a couple of counting stats and they plan a strong defense. Yeah. Diggle. Any thoughts that you have here? I usually chase sex.

It could be a linebacker award. And the fact that we have... We did the last 10. So I would punch a hole for that. So it's probably a situation when we're looking at starting edges and hoping they get there. And that does, again,

it goes back to the favorites for me. So long shots, I don't really have an opinion. Yeah, I'm kind of with you. Again, even some of these linebackers, like Micah Parsons last year, part of it was because of the sacks. So, yeah, theoretically, he was a linebacker by position, but, like, he transformed that defense in his own game by basically being an edge rusher when they had some injuries.

He was also a once-in-a-generation defender. You know, we didn't know it at the time, but we knew his athletic profile. We knew he was a superb athlete, but it was always the idea that he was rangy, sideline to sideline, not that he could rush the passer.

Not only did he do that dominantly, he also has some of the best one-on-one coverage chops of anyone in that class, even including cornerbacks. And that's why he was a defensive MVP runner-up, not just rookie of the year runner-up.

So that was a case of a player being so good that they were like and just discussed alongside Aaron Donald for another award entirely. So, yeah, you would have to hope that Thibodeau or Hutchinson are in that class. Connor, what do you got here? Yeah, really not too much. I think, you know, kind of going, looking at the top here,

I think you guys said it. This is just another tough award to break down with this class because there's a couple of strong guys at the top, but I'm just not really sure that they match the kind of criteria that I'm looking for,

and especially kind of only getting five to one, five and a half to one, just not something I'm super interested in betting at the top here, especially tying up my money for that long. I mean, I don't know, like how I think we kind of have to bet Daxton Hill for the brand, right? Like, isn't that just like a brand thing at this point or I can get there. Daxton Hill and you know, Kyrie Elam, I think are both interesting, right?

So like if Elam is attached to a a good team if you know they're playing good football they're kind of the runaway favorites in the afc and he has a nice year i think you could tell yourself a story especially if none of the edge rushers are dominant in their first year i think that gets a little bit easier um all these guys right here except drake jackson are just make the cutoff um as far as like the top 40 pick thresholds. You know, McCreary was just in there. Ibikedi was just at that mark. He was like 39.

Kyler Gordon just qualified. So these guys are all kind of just in there. So, again, thinking if there's a 32-year trend of top 40 picks, you'd have to have a guy kind of break the mold here deep down the board. So yeah, I mean, I can get there on Dax Hill. Again, we've talked about this a little bit. We talked about it in the draft review show. I wanted to be there with you

and maybe you change too, we'll get there. It made sense that we would maybe want to short the Bengals, but they've had a hell of an off season. And I feel, I i mean their schedule is pretty tough and it's gonna be hard to replicate what they did but man they're they've done a really nice job improving uh a football team that was probably lucky again to go to the super bowl the way it broke for them but um they definitely are putting themselves in the mix to be contenders and the way dax hills game plays i think could uh could be a nice look. So they go back or they have another nice look. 35 will be significantly shorter come come the winter.

Yeah. I don't know. We got, well, we got coach of the year left. That's our last, yeah, that's actually one of the, I think one of the better awards. I would love to get your takes on coach of the year because this is a, an interesting one to me. I don't really know how to, how to approach it. We have another year of Brandon Staley being the favorite. Nathaniel Hackett right there as well.

Connor, you have some thoughts maybe historically? I know we've seen a lot of steam on Dan Campbell over the last couple of weeks. Any thoughts on Coach Deegan? I mean, 60-1, it was a fine look, but I think it's kind of like a bad play at this point. Um, like, so this award is not only about, it's, it's about exceeding expectations and getting the team to win 10 games in the past 20 years, every coach to win the, win the award outside of Bruce Arians, who was, you know, like the interim coach who went nine and three, they've all won 10 or more games. So it's not only about exceeding expectations and being like in that kind of of lower to middle tier,

but you also have to take that next step into being a playoff team. So, I mean, the Lions, sure, they can take the next step and win like eight or nine games, but I think that there's a very slim chance that they're winning like 10-plus games. And if they do, I guess Dan Campbell's coach of the year, but I don't know. I mean, I think even them winning eight games is like a pretty big reach.

So for me, the two that I think were interesting, like Nick Sirianni, 20 to one. I think that that's an interesting look because we like kind of the criteria that we talk about there is there a middling team, eight and a half, nine wins total, like a team that could make the jump, win the division in the Eagles. Like, you know, I think that that's the kind of guy you're looking for. So at 20 to one, I think that that's like a better, almost a better play and a shorter play than betting like Jalen Hurts MVP, because they could still be really good. And Jalen Hurts is just like, you know, slightly above average and not MVP caliber. Whereas Sirianni, um, you know, like could easily win coach of the year. If the Eagles make the

playoffs, I think that that's like probably my favorite look on the board here. Those watching the video are getting a treat because i'm glistening since the ac here broke in the past 24 hours it's been not only mid 80s outdoors it's 89 indoors i only have one window the wall here and so it's just it's so miserably hot that's why also why i'm very short-winded and uh would like to get off very soon um anyways though i how do you sleep in that i can i could not sleep in that dude we'll probably love it dude he loves 80 degrees i slept with a towel underneath the towel it's just or on a towel it's crazy dude it's it's unimaginable it's like a spa you can come over if you want to sleep over i mean they could they come in the morning they

come in the morning supposedly so it's only one more day but yeah everyone can see on the video right now i'm literally sweating. Uh, no. So winning a narrative matter more than anything for this award. Uh, they did, they played it so well last year and variable doing the most with the least. And then Rick, rich, uh, Rick Basaccia getting it over Bengals coach. I lost my train of thought. That's it zach taylor uh getting the award over zach taylor who is who is a hack um and if anything put joe burrow in far more detrimental

situations that he does put sets him up to succeed and so they did get it right last year and so that's what i look for and honestly like if the eagles overcome like they don't have a lack of talent but like they are overshadowed still by teams that get more national primetime games that get more attention like the cowboys like a giants with brian dable and uh bills front office that basically just took everyone there they're now trying to rebuild the organization the eagles are always overlooked and so if they do well enough against, again, what Sharp is projecting as the third easiest schedule in the entire league, like that's how Nick Sirianni wins this award.

So I agree with Connor. I'm on Nick Sirianni as well. I think it's the best play for some of the reasons you guys highlighted. Again, this entire market is basically crunched at 20. There's a couple guys short of 20. Again, Mike McDaniel, you have to tell yourself a story that they're winning the division. Can't get there.

Much easier to tell myself a story that Sean McDermott at longer odds, they have the dominant season that we expect, and he gets rewarded for that at 18 than Mike McDaniel at 16. So, again, you have the two AFC West guys at the very top with, with Brandon Staley and Nathan Hackett. Again, if one of them emerges and they become the winner, that makes sense too. Otherwise you're looking way down the board at the, you know, no one's longer than 50, which is remarkable to me. That seems wrong. Again,

not a, not a market for me, but I think you guys made a good case for Sirianni who would definitely be my lean. So, uh, let's get to take a lot of here, man. I can't, I can't watch him suffer. It's miserable, right? Yeah. You can tell. I don't mind doing it.

Y'all have seen me eat hot weeks and I always do it. That's fine. Like this is a permanent, it just builds. You get to like have the pleasure of the hot wing. This is just like, this is not hot wing. This is just miserable. This is not pleasure. This is something that happened. It just happened to finally not get cold in Chicago,

and the AC broke immediately. It's miserable. It's been bad. I've been working from cafes because this is bad. Connor, any final thoughts? No, not really. I think that we had a decent number of longer shot, mid-shot bets that are pretty good value

and will probably change closer to the season. We'll probably mention these awards too, I guess, as we get a little bit more reports in camp, especially the rookie awards, things like that. A lot of that will change based on what's going on, what we're seeing. We'll refer back to these, but I think this is a good start if you want to just sprinkle a few bets here

to get a little portfolio going for the awards. I don't mind starting with that. Yeah, this is a sprinkle market at this point, in my opinion. Be smart with these things. You can tell yourself a story that at 101 makes a lot of sense, and you can be DOA very, very soon. So be smart. There are a lot of ways to bet.

There are a lot of ways to bet the NFL. Don't go ahead and overextend yourself in the awards market just because it's the only thing that we can bet right now. So, um, I would try to just, you know, encourage you to be cautious a little bit.

So, uh, yeah, we got the NBA draft soon. So like, that's going to be something that we can make some money on between now and then, if you want to sink all your NBA draft winnings,

go ahead and do so. So, uh, we'll be back next week. We will do something along the lines of schedule release, the odds that are coming out with that. But we'll be back same spot on Wednesday. So for Daniel and Connor,

I'm Ryan. We'll see y'all soon.