Move The Line - 2022 NFL Schedule Release: Best Bets, Early Betting Angles, Easiest & Toughest Schedules

Episode Date: May 19, 2022

Move The Line hosts Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, and John Daigle go over the most important topics in the world of sports betting!On today's podcast, the guys review the 2022 NFL Schedule Release and what the Best Bets, Early Betting Angles, and Easiest or Toughest Schedules are.Hosts: Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, John Daigle, Move the LineFollow Us On:TwitterFacebookYouTubeDiscord 4for4 NFL Draft Odds & Betting TrackerMove the Line Bets Tracker Get a FREE 4for4 Pro Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit)Want a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMGet a FREE 4for4 Pro Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit) 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wtvfuhEmail: [e-mail]

and welcome to move the line presented by fan duel promo code four for four new users at fan duel can take advantage of the risk-free first bet up to a thousand dollars back if you don't win download the fan duel app today and a promo code four for four take advantage i am ryan noonan joined here as always by my friends connor allen john daigle connor how we doing buddy just coming back from a uh a little bachelor party out of states how we feeling we live in life i don't want to bury the lead too also like full-time connor allen this week as well so congratulations to both the uh you know getting married here shortly and also going full time and i'm uh we're excited to have you on board to do this every day.

I appreciate it. Yeah, I had a pretty wild couple of weeks. I went to Vegas, got COVID from Vegas, and then two weeks later, turned around and went to my bachelor party, still not just tired. And then now starting a full-time job in the industry the Monday after my bachelor party. A little bit suboptimal for my body and everything, but mentally I've never felt better. This is where I want to be and love chopping it up with you guys, talking about betting all day. It's great, man.

At least you've been preparing your whole life to be full-time in the industry by whipping mashed potatoes or whatever the hell you were doing for the last eight years in the restaurant industry. Oh, man, that's very true. That's very true. Yeah. I mean, it couldn't have gone worse from there. I mean, that's, that's, I guess that's. No, no, no. You, you put in the time also with a essentially another full-time job in the restaurant injury. And now you are backing out of the restaurant altogether. Uh, and you will soon find out you have free time and you use that free time

to then sharpen your knives, right? To hone your strengths. And that's what it becomes is filling that free time. It's a good situation to be in. That's a good way to put it. I'm still looking for the free time. It will come, I imagine. You'll have two kids, Connor,

and you'll continue having the free time. That is a thing. Massive. Do not have the kids. Come hang out with mine. You need like a little bit of a kid fix. They're both fun. They're very different ages.

It should check all the boxes that you would possibly ever need. Take your sweet, sweet time. I'm very happy with being Uncle Connor for a little bit instead of popping on my own. Long, take a long time. Daigle, I'm a little upset, man. No olds were invited. I believe that was the actual line. No olds allowed at the bachelor party, man. We also heard some of the stories and those are some young stories that you and I probably would just said, nah, we're just going to go to a cocktail bar nearby or something.

Actually, that's true. I'm not even envious that I wasn't there, to be honest. We instead, a partner and I, went out to Hayden Winks' wedding in Huntington Beach and then turned around for a good friend's Jewish wedding. My first Jewish wedding, actually. And I was part of the groomsmen party, so I got to hoist up the back right corner of the chair. Nearly hit his head on the wall for the horror dance i believe it's called so great time uh was very tired but also saturday was important because noon and i told you this but shout out to our friends in life and winks of course but also

sam hoppin of four for four who just threw out a new player prop model for us on the site, as well as Matt Horman, all got married literally on the same day on Saturday. So congratulations to all of them. Yeah, wild day for three folks in the industry that we all know that are friends that all got married. Congratulations to everybody. Hopefully they all take the advice that I just gave to Connor. Take your time. Kids are lovely and beautiful, but it's just a different beast.

There's no rush. There's just no rush. No, no rush. We are going to spend some time with you today taking a look at the schedule. Schedule release was about a week ago. It was last Thursday. So we're going to kind of unpack some of the quirks that came out of that and all the ways to kind of leverage that as we start to shape the

future market, win totals, division bets, all those types of things. Excited that our projections now are live on the site over at 444, the best projections out there consistently. Again, I don't want to cut you off, but not only that, but remember there are drop-down columns now in these projections that automatically sort the differences in underdog, best ball mania, for instance, scoring for FFPC. I messaged the tech team, and they now have a drop-down for drafters best ball tournament that pays out $250K to first place. So, like, all the projections there can now be sorted by legitimately just clicking that button and selecting your league. Like they truly are incredible. And we like to leverage them in the betting markets.

Obviously, you know, the future markets being able to run the work there that Paulson does against the betting markets and was very, very profitable last season. I think I was like 17 and three and like prop futures solely based off of looking at Paulson's projections or finding, you know, large chunks of it being off market and making smart decisions there. So I wish I could take more credit that for that myself, but it was a lot of the projections and those are accessible on the site. Again, we're currently running a deal this week.

If you happen to be a golf fan at all, you can get a betting subscription over at four for four and get a free betting sub over at Bettsports Golf. So that is going to expire on Sunday when the PGA championship wraps up. Highly recommend that. Lots of cool things going on over there too. And the betting sub cannot speak highly enough. Again, you get literally everything on the site at four for four, all of the work, all the premium articles, all the tools. Daigle's doing a ton of really good work on the best ball side uh sam hoppins doing some awesome tools there how to leverage you know

underdog and how to build teams the correct way for those tournaments be able to put yourself in a plus ev situation to be able to kind of maximize those games which are a ton of fun so definitely want to check that out um and there's a great underdog deal too so head to the site, basically buy the underdog deal and then upgrade yourself to the betting sub best of both worlds. That's the way to do it. So gentlemen, let's get started. We're going to go team by link and let you two kind of rotate here, oscillate between teams. We'll talk a little bit briefly about the team after you kind of give us your take on why they have a schedule advantage or disadvantage, maybe some ways that we can leverage this information in the markets now based off of what we know. Dagle, get us started. Give me some, I guess you have a kind of an overview

at the top of how you want to kind of talk about this and approach this. I just want to note before we start that we will be talking about rest edge and net rest a lot with these schedules. I'll be talking about a lot more than that, but I'll be citing that quite a bit. And for reference, teams with a rest edge. So let's say the Rams, for instance, this week or this year, play the opening game on Thursday and then play week two the following Sunday.

Thus, they have 10 days in between games, whereas they play the Falcons in week two, who also play on Sunday in week one. So the Rams have three days of net rest, plus three days of net rest. And teams with a rest advantage of three plus days went 33 and 23 and one. So a 59% win rate and covered the spread at 54% last year. So I just want to note that.

Also this year, Bills have a league high, 12 days of net rest advantage. And the Packers have a league high 12 days of net rest advantage and the Packers have a league low minus 12 and so to emphasize that point it's a 24-day swing and rest advantage like nearly a full month in a season that spans only four months start to finish uh and Matt and this can be changed by coaching for example like Matt lafleur uh the packers have gone 13-3 for instance in his three seasons as coach and are an nfl best five and one somehow in games the last three years when their opponents has had over three days rest advantage over them so lafleur does counteract this but i still think it's important to note just the the margin of

difference between these teams. And I will be citing that as we move along here. Love it. Connor, I'll let you go first. Talk about the team that you want to talk about here at the start as far as a schedule. Yeah. So I think there's just kind of add quickly at Adam, what Daigle said there, I think that the net rest edges is very valuable when analyzing straight to schedule. I think also kind of utilizing, but not, you know, it end-all be-all is using opposing win totals to understand strength of schedule as well. So basically you can kind of average out the opposing teams that you're

supposed to play against and analyze strength of schedule from that standpoint as well. I mean, obviously it's flawed because it includes, it's kind of like cyclical in some senses in terms of like who they're playing, obviously impacts their win totals a little bit as well. But at the same time, I think you can kind of get a good general overview and then from there kind of dig into the strength of schedule here. So a team that, you know, we talked about before, and I think that is really interesting from a number of schedule

perspectives. So the Philadelphia Eagles, second easiest strength of schedule this season, their favorites in every single game, except for three of schedule this season. They are favorites in every single game except for three of them this upcoming year. And they also they just signed James Bradbury at the corner. They added a son Redick in the offseason. They traded for A.J. Brown. You know, they have I mean, had probably one of the best offseasons. The other is the issue, though, with them is that they have three consecutive road games with the final game being at Dallas being played in a short week. Uh, I mean, it does not get any more suboptimal

than that. Uh, they're also one of the teams that has to play four short week road games, uh, which is another schedule note, which is not optimal. Uh, but at the end of the day, I think that there's enough upside with how many pieces they've added to kind of counteract some of those things. But it's certainly something to watch, something that I'll be watching in season as well. I've taken a position on the Eagles in terms of the over to win the division. But, you know, at the same time, I think that there could be some ways to hedge out of that in season there with getting the Cowboys on that kind of like triple leg road game, short week kind of scenario. So we talked last week about the Eagles drawing the second easiest schedule based on Vegas season win totals. But then when we see now the schedule draw to bring Conor's point along further,

it's not just that the Eagles have a league high for short week road games. It's that no team had to play more than two short week road games last year. And this year, 21 out of 32 teams play between zero and one short week road games. And here the Eagles are all the way with four, right? Whereas to hit on the Cowboys for a second, there six teams opponents this year who have less than a. Six teams, opponents this year,

who have less than a week to prepare. And last year, only one team played at least four games, right? With opponents who had less than a week to prepare. And the Cowboys, as I mentioned, have six. It is absurdly in favor of Dallas. This year, the average is two and a half, six games versus opponents against short rest per team. And no team is over four games aside from Dallas again at six.

It is oddly in favor of the Cowboys. And so we will definitely be watching that. I still believe, as I mentioned last week, the Cowboys had the biggest drop off in talent and personnel of any team this off season. And so I still think they're a joke, but I think the schedule helps them out so much that what's going to happen is like last year, right? Whatever they make into the playoffs.

And then they have opponent that's just outright better than them. That opponent in the wildcard round, the divisional round, wherever they show up at, we know to bet them. And so let's just recall this conversation, jot this into memory right now. I'll have it in my notes forever because psychotically, I always keep the same notes from after the Super Bowl all the way to the next Super Bowl and control F it all the way down to remember what I wrote for podcast. That's the only way I can remember everything. And so I will look back at this in January and say, remember guys, we already talked about this. It is now time to bet this other team that is going to absolutely trounce Dallas. And so just remember this very moment.

Control left it in your mind, everybody. It's important to do. Yeah, I mean, I think the interesting thing with the Dallas thing is that a lot of those with the rest prep advantage, they're late in the season, right? Week 12, week 13, week 16, week 17. Some of those matter. They don't all have rest advantages, I guess. But again, they're getting their opponents with less than a week prepared.

So again, that adds up. I think most of these things are going to skew to being advantageous later in the season when we just know the toll that the season takes, depending on when you're biased. All these different things are going to play themselves out in a bigger, bigger way. When divisions are really on the line, you get those inter-conference or inter-division games late in the season too, as referenced here with the Dallas and Philadelphia games. So a good call out there. Diggle, what's a team that you want to get us started with?

Also remember, Eagles have had absolutely incredible offseason. Howie Rosen brought his A game this season. A.J. Brown, James Bradbury just recently jordan davison around one to kobe dune who they let slide only because he's a small off off ball linebacker the value was so good that even roseman thought maybe i'll grab an off ball linebacker for a change um even zach pascal is graded at pro football focus is one of the league's best run blockers for remember from week six on was basically the run heaviest team in neutral game script. So they did everything they could to set Jalen Hurts up. I still genuinely don't believe he is the quarterback of the future unless he improves immensely. I don't think even a playoff

appearance is good enough for them knowing they have the draft capital. And the goal is to not be league average at that position. The goal is to be better than league average, to make sure that even when you make mistakes, your quarterback can bail you out. And right now, Jalen Hurts is not a quarterback that can bail you out if mistakes happen for the rest of the personnel. And so that's kind of the goal for them in the future. But they put him in position to try and win that job and allocate those two first round picks next year elsewhere.

So we're going to see what happens. Yeah, it's a good point. And it'd be interesting to see, right? They put themselves in that position and they do kind of what we think they're going to see what happens yeah uh it's a good point and it'd be interesting to see right they put themselves in that position and they do kind of what we think is they're going to do is that is replicate last year worst case scenario get to the playoffs again two years in a row in the playoffs to pull the string it's a little difficult we see it kind of happening in san francisco a little bit right where maybe you have a guy that's been good enough but you know that he's league average at best and you want to be beyond that especially when the rest of the roster looks like it does again the other advantages you still have him with a very

advantageous and team-friendly contract which gives you the flexibility to do some of the things that they're doing so again you could do that and replicate it in the draft by using that as you said draft capital to get in a position to do it again but it becomes very interesting if they again say they win 11 games, they go to the playoffs yet again, and he still is continuing to grow. It'll be an interesting thing. I don't think you're wrong, but I think it'll be interesting. Also in the division, it's just the fact what makes life so much easier for the Cowboys.

Not only the Eagles being drawn that slate, but last year, for example, no team played four opponents off mini buys whereas this year it's happening to three different teams the jets the jaguars and the commanders and that last team is important because the commanders actually play four games with three day rest disadvantages so net rest negative three uh and that it includes two instances of back-to-back games with rest disadvantage um i've already seen some hype for terry mclaurin and fantasy and i just keep thinking And that it includes two instances of back-to-back games with rest disadvantage. I've already seen some hype for Terry McLaurin in fantasy, and I just keep thinking to myself,

we just did this shit last year with Michael Pittman. Carson Wentz literally threw the sixth most inaccurate ball. So the sixth lowest percentage of on-target throws to wide receivers. And yet here we are again with Michael Pittman, who finished 28th in fantasy points per game among wide receivers. Terry McLaurin finished 36th from Kyle Allen. And no, Taylor Heineke. And everyone's thinking,

oh, well, Terry McLaurin gets an upgrade now with Carson Wentz. Again, we just saw Carson Wentz make Michael Pittman a mid wide receiver three and now everyone's drafting Terry McLaurin as a mid low end wide receiver two it doesn't work like that it's still Carson Wentz and now we have the rest ditch advantages as well so I think it's just very easy to forget about Terry McLaurin wait until later in the summer when hopefully people figure this out and thus we can grab him then. But man, him and Brees Hall, like I just have zero of because their ADPs make zero sense. And as I noted earlier with

the Cowboys thing, those four games with the commanders are almost all the end of the season as well. Um, 30 of 10, 13, 18 like that is a problem that is a real schedule disadvantage that is a you know what we're trying to highlight here are outliers that are actionable in any football decision you're trying to make whether it's fantasy as far as you know drafting a carson wentz tied terry mclaurin or looking to bet futures, these are the outliers that I think are of note. And to Connor's point at the top, talking about strength of schedule in terms of the flaws of using Vegas win totals, it's better than what we were doing before. It's better than what some people do out there, right? Is just using last year's win percentage,

not really taking into any context. So while yes, there is noise and definitely some holes to be poked in the Vegas wind total approach, it's better than what we did before. You really, it's again, we're trying to forecast this and you really can't do anything except adjust in moment, in season. And we've seen this work out

where teams typically have a difficult strength of schedule underperform. So last year, if you do go by strictly, like don't even think about rest, think of Vegas win totals. The 10 teams that had the easiest schedule based solely on early Vegas win totals, did seven of those 10 teams did end up with the top 10 easiest schedule

and vice versa for the bottom 10 teams as well. Seven of those 10 teams did play the hardest schedule in the year. So I do think like, it's just saying what we always say, books are accurate and they are giving this information. It's just a matter of us parsing it. And now we do parse it more intelligently. And I think that's important. I'm still working on how it correlates to fantasy. Like last year, I didn't draft Jonathan Taylor in the third, fourth round for that reason, because the schedule was so hard and Carson Wentz and Carson Wentz was bad. The Colts didn't make the playoffs and it didn't matter. Jonathan Taylor was still the best running back of the entire league. So again, I'm still trying to figure out

how to parse all the information so we could win across the entire fucking board. But I do think we're on the right track. I want to ask Drew about this because Drew did some work, Will Capper did some work on this, I think two years ago, about basically the average discrepancy from where a team's actual win total falls and what the Vegas win total was. It's relatively wide. It was like, yes, I want to say yes, they know,

and it is better better and they're right at times but it was it's way wider than i think you would expect it to be and i'm curious if he's updated that work at all but uh it was like 2.1 games either way plus or minus was the general like average uh you know distribution of uh you know like a win like actual wins versus uh projected wins but that was more so a study towards taking alternate win totals either way. Sure. And betting like, you know, whatever, if the bears have seven win total betting under five wins and then betting over like nine wins at plus money and what I'd do on both ways,

essentially. So that was kind of what his research was directed. My other team that I am as down on futures wise as the Eagles would be the Bengals. Because last year, we've already talked about basically the luck they had to overcome poor coaching as well. But second easiest slate of opposing pass defenses in hindsight last year, a league high 11 days of net rest and zero games with a rest disadvantage. So zero games against teams who had extra time to prepare for them. But this year, seventh toughest schedule based on Vegas season win totals

and NFL high three road primetime games. So three roads, Sunday night football or Monday night football games when no team played more than two of those last year. And that is obviously a negative because teams hate when they have to travel home and get back Monday a.m., Tuesday a.m. Your prep basically makes it unnaturally a short week. And then just the natural regression that occurs every single year, even though people don't believe it's going to happen,

even though it happens literally to the best quarterback every single season, the natural regression that comes with leading the league in completion rate in yards per attempt, which Joe Burrow did at 70.4% completion rate and 8.9 yards per attempt. And so I do think the Bengals are also a team who, yes, did an immaculate job upgrading their offensive line, but will just go backwards for a variety of reasons this year.

They're great for the future. They are set already. But this year, I do not expect them to be a, I believe they're over under as nine and a half wins. And I do think they fall short of that. And they actually have the biggest discrepancy based off of where they were last year, where they ended up having at the end of the year,

the third easiest schedule. Now, as Daigle mentioned, the seventh most difficult. So that is a big discrepancy from where they were last year and where they are this year. Connor, what do you got? I mean, it's really tough to overlook. Like they were out gained in yards per play in literally every playoff game.

It was just like the ultimate fluke run of just talent overshining anything that matters that go their way. Well, they caught historically the worst number one seed that we all thought. No one really believed in the Titans. They snuck by that game against the Raiders and then won and did the same thing basically against Tennessee. It literally came down after nine sacks to a 34-yard sideline throw to Jamar Chase. That was literally the game.

And then, of course, to have one of the greatest kicker, not just rookie kicker runs, but kicker runs in history, that's what it came down to. This is the stuff I love when I'm making my, you know, my look at lines, LCLV articles, Dago. I love these little in season. If you've ever taken advantage of the free article to get your LCLV, you know, these little in season quirks I love. So this is, we're getting.

And I remember all of them because just like in poker, we only remember our beats. We don't remember the times where i got to like withdraw 10k from dk last year we only remember the times like i lost 300 bucks and i'm still pissed about it to this day for instance noonie when i came over like week three or whatever last year and had the bingle stack against the eagles do you remember that and uh they basically fell completely fucking flat and i was pissed off the rest of the time so yes i remember those moments but not the times i won i still remember feeling so good about packers ravens and then

it was just a mispriced line and then lamar got hurt and that line ballooned from like a pick them to like packers on the road minus six six and a half or something like that and that they lose outright and like that was a tyler Tyler Huntley winning tournament week, right? Yeah. Oh yeah. He went off. Yeah. No, I had, I had a Rogers double stacks that week.

I was great that week. I do remember that win. Cause I was in St. Louis at a Cardinals bar working from there doing the games. And then the owner saw me like cheering. Cause I was yelling so loud. This is just my life noon. This is what we have. I know. I know. That's amazing. I also then the owner saw me like cheering. Cause I was yelling so loud. This is just my life noon. This is what we have.

I know. I know. That's that's amazing. I also got the owner's number. So if you ever want to go to St. Louis, I know a bar we can go to. Newton,

you're going to be very proud of me though. Real quick. I've already bet a game week 15. Yes. What do we, what do we got? It was, it was posted at FSM.

So I can't take full credit, but I thought it was super sharp. Oh, I saw it today. It was, I was at Stsm so i can't take full credit but i thought it was super sharp oh i saw it today it was uh saints saints minus five against atlanta at home they're minus four right now on the road i mean in the falcon season we only expect to unravel so i mean they're going to close at like seven and a half like i think that's probably what they'll end up at week 15 so you know i didn't put like whatever the house on it but you know it's it's, it, it cashes earlier than a future. So, you know, I thought that it was a good look. I thought you'd be proud of me,

you know, steps forward. That is steps where I remember last year, I think I had like three and a half, four units down on Buffalo at home against Miami and like week eight, because of that weird thing where Miami basically punted on their post London by, cause they thought they were a playoff team. So they wanted the latest buy that they could get. So they took week 13 and they came back. And again, the rest advantage, they came back from London, played Atlanta off a buy, went to Buffalo, played Buffalo off a buy, and they got absolutely wrecked. So these little

things do add up in season. So finding edges like that makes a ton of sense. Connor, I think your team. Yeah, I got an, I got another one here and this has been talked about a bit here, but I mean the Kansas city chiefs, I thought got are put in a really tough situation. By far the hardest strength of schedule by opposing wind totals. Just let's go through the first half of their season before the buy. They start the season at Arizona. Then they go to the chargers. They play the Colts, the bucks,, the Raiders, the Bills, and the 49ers. I mean, the Raiders are the easiest team they play, and they have like an eight and a half win total.

And pretty much the Raiders seem to pull out one win against them almost like every year. I don't know. I mean, that is just an absolutely brutal start. I think that they will be probably happy with being 500 at that point. I think that they should be. But in the eyes of all of us, I mean, that's kind of a disappointment. Their win total right now, 10.5.

It gets a little bit easier down the stretch, but they have a back-to-back road game scenario with Cincy, Denver, and then Houston. So they have a three back-to-back-to-back. Luckily, Houston is the third leg of that, so regardless of how much rest they're on, they should be able to kind of still win that game. But at the same time, you know,

back-to-back road games with Cincy and then Denver in there as well. I mean, it's not a good place to be in. So I think the under on 10.5 wins for the Chiefs is very much still in play. I know that their net rest is slightly above average still, but, you know, with the teams they're playing, loss of Tyreek Hill, I'm a little bit concerned about them. And the teams obviously being their own division, which three of four teams are trying to capture AFC seeds.

That division is so stacked from the top down. The NFC East, which you've already talked about how well the Eagles have built their personnel and the Cowboys rest advantage over everyone, even the Chiefs, and then the three off-ball games outside of those matchups being the Bengals, Bills, and Bucs. It's just an absolute murderer's row. The problem, especially there, Daigle,

is that they catch the Bucs with that 17th game. The wonky game is they're tied to the NFC South. But think about how bad that division is. So everyone else in that loaded division gets the garbage remaining teams from the NFC South and they get the Bucs, the only actual viable playoff team in that division. So while that group of the Raiders, the Chargers, and the Broncos are going to pick off the Panthers, the Saints, and the Falcons. So that's a very, very different unbalanced schedule,

which is beyond the reward that you get for winning your division and playing the teams that coincide with that. This wonky 17th game and how they place that out too, they are on the losing end of that. So a really, really tough beat for the Chiefs who have a lot of questions coming into this year. I have one more negative team for us,

and that is the Jets, who we've already mentioned. No team played four opponents off of many buys last year. This year, the Jets are one of those teams. Also, the Jets are the only team in the entire league that play six games where their opponents have extra time to prepare for them as well. And then you take into the fact that even though they rebuilt or strengthened their personnel,

their offense, it still comes down, as we mentioned in our draft show, to the same two questions. It is, when does Makai Becton show up? And two, does Zach Wilson develop? Those are the only two questions that matter, no matter how good the Jets are personnel-wise. And genuinely, the jury's out on both. And so I do worry that they also do not have the schedule in their favor.

Yeah, they're a buzzy team. People are betting, I do worry that they also do not have the schedule in their favor. Yeah. They're a buzzy team. People are betting. I believe that the highest bets future at this point, and I don't know if that's current, if it's moved a bunch, was the jets window. I believe Connor,

is that correct? Yeah. And now it's, I mean, they're, they're twin totals five and a half, but it seemed everywhere like minus one 60. Like,

I mean, imagine laying minus one 60 on the jets over window. I mean, that is just a disaster. If you think they're going to take a step forward, bet the alt of six and a half or whatever, seven and a half plus money. Definitely don't lay the juice of minus 160 on the over at five and a half because I don't know, I'm not sold on the Jets.

Like I'm not really sold on Zach Wilson. Are you guys? At least we're getting reports out of Dolphins camp, for example, where they're running a lot of short intermediate crossing routes, which is what should do it to it that's what he excelled at in alabama and so they're building their speedy wide receivers to just get the ball and create yak all the shanahan system that is being carried over there but with the jets all we're hearing is about denzel mems who they already tried to trade being a breakout player like nothing is happening that we have confidence in at all. And so I just

can't buy into the fact that we are now giving juice, like having to lay juice for their over. There's no way. And like, I mean, really, I mean, how much, how, how really, how excited should we be about that offense? Like Gary Wilson, sure. He was a good prospect, but like, does he come in and crush right away? Like Elijah, Elijah Moore was not really all that good with Zach Wilson until the end, like caught it, like what one long ball, one ADR touchdown. I mean, like, I hear what you're saying, but I also blame that on Zach Wilson again. That's why, like, I do think Garrett Wilson's an amazing prospect. I think Elijah Moore is an awesome player.

I think Corey Davis is just fine as an out wide veteran. I think Braxton Berrios, who averaged eight targets per game without Jameson Crowder last year, I think they're all good players and they're running backs between Michael Carter who averaged eight targets per game without Jameson Crowder last year. I think they're all good players, and their running backs between Michael Carter and Bree Saul are incredible prospects as well, in my opinion. And the offensive line, the way they built it as well, Elijah Vera Tucker, we forget about.

I genuinely think they are the Broncos, where it all comes down to quarterback situation. The Broncos of old, I should say. But Zach Wilson did not show show anything whether it was pre injury or when he came back from injury because he at least got to see mike hype for a couple of games only checked down right he got to learn that you can gain passing yards via yak and yet when he came back from injury learned nothing still tried to chuck a deep like drew lock and the balls were miserably inaccurate and

so like does he grow as a player does he learn how to play in the nfl and make his weaknesses his strengths and he didn't show us last year that's the big problem mike white gets them over their win total yo mike mike hype was awesome that that week and a half and by the way the game he got benched in was against the number one bills defense that's not fair at all yeah he should have been given one more start after getting bent. A Connor Allen special right there. Banging bad quarterback, passing yard, unders against the Bills. Doesn't matter what it is.

Anything over 200 yards, just smash the under against the Bills. Never forget, Ty Johnson was a legitimate, like an RB2 in PPR league. I like Ty Johnson. I still don't know why that guy can get some money. I don't think he's bad, but like he should be part of a committee. He can't lead anything, but like he wasn't RB2 for those two games that Mike White played.

Tough scene. So, yeah, I mean, I, I'm not sold massive question marks again at the quarterback position. And now do you have, you're the wrong side of a schedule.

And I want to believe I really do, but you can't with what you've seen from Zach Wilson so far. Yeah, I don't, I don't want to believe. I hope do. But you can't with what you've seen from Zach Wilson so far. Yeah, I don't. I don't want to believe. I hope that they struggle. Again, their NFC West team is their 17th game. It's at Seattle.

They're not a good football team, but that's a big trip, right? That adds to the, again, not necessarily the rest, but there are people that do work around miles traveled and how that could take its toll and having to play. Again, they could have caught one of the worst other teams in the nfc west and it would have been worse but uh again still a long flight for them to make on the road speaking of seattle they actually did draw an easy rest schedule they have the fourth easiest schedule of vegas season win totals but then also we're now getting columns from at the atlantic and fox sports of them even saying they want to return to a ground-and-pound offense,

which they have to, right? Whether it's Drew Locke or Geno Smith. Geno Smith in his interim four starts, I believe it was, averaged 190 passing yards per game. It's just not good enough. And two of those games were against the Jaguars, and one more soft one I can't remember off the top of my head. But overall, this is just not an offense,

even with rest advantage, that's going to get it done. That's why when you look at the top six teams, top five don't matter because they are teams like the Dolphins and whatnot that we still think are not the best in their division. But the one team that stands out at number six overall, according to Vegas season win totals, is the Cowboys. And that's what I keep coming back to with the NFC East. Yeah, that's a fair point.

Uh, Connor, you hear that the dolphins are not the best team in the AFC East, buddy. Yeah, no, I got that. It's all right.

I mean, two is still going to crush though. Just wait on it. I don't have any, I don't have any action on them. Unfortunately, I just got to find a way to play something that matches my level of optimism,

which is mildly excited. Um, you know, so like I'm not ready to go all in, but, uh, now, now that I'm part of the show, let's get this out of the way early. Like we do not allow takes on this show. We put legitimately skin in the game and our money where our mouth is.

I did not allow it at the old podcast. Anytime someone mentions something, we would always make sandwich bets. I still owe Norris a couple dinners, actually, steak dinners, because I put my money too much where my mouth was. But yes, we don't go to Twitter and say positive things for likes and retweets. We show up to this show, and people bet on what we say. I'm just letting you know moving forward.

There will be a lot of lunch bets. That's why there has been... Especially because we can all cash it in because we live within 10 miles of each other. I owe Connor a round of golf and a meal. You do. Was it both on the dolphins or only one on the We live within 10 miles of each other. I'll Connor around a golf and a meal. You do. Yeah. We, I,

both on the, was it both on the dolphins or only one on the dolphins? Yeah. The first one is short. The dolphins win total. I was a donkey and backdoor that into the new England game in week one, which they should have won, but we know how that worked out. Damien Harris fumbles on the one at the end of the game.

And Connor was correct. I forget. We doubled or nothing at some point. And yeah and here we are speaking of uh that it sucks the patriots drew such a tough rest draw and vegas season win total draw um because like i have been and maybe it actually works to my advantage because this means they throw more like it's a tough schedule. But I have been stacking in underdog leagues. Matt Jones, my backup quarterback, and then late Kendrick Bourne and James White because you can get them so late.

And it just makes so much sense as like just putting them behind your other stacks because if you disregard that one three attempt game into the blistering wins where they ran the ball, Matt Jones averaged 32 pass attempts a game as opposed to the 29. I think it was 28, maybe that he averaged if you include that game. So like a large discrepancy and you would think they opened the playbook for

him again this year. But again, the schedule disadvantage is not, doesn't work in my favor for those teams I've stacked in with. I probably still keep doing it though for the hell. Yeah. I remember being alarmed, you know, I put together that worksheet here for us still keep doing it though for the hell. Yeah. I remember being alarmed. You know,

I put together that worksheet here for us every week in our notes, the Patriots until I want to say maybe week 16, like they were top five and explosive play rate offensively for the season. And it was like alarming. Cause you're not thinking that it's tied to anyone, but like big runs, the occasional big play, like Kendrick Bourne was pretty good here and there.

It wasn't anyone from a fantasy perspective that was going to be an outlier that we need to like hone in on, but it was just guys. And like, I do think that the divisions improved, the schedule and the draws you mentioned both from a rest and opponent standpoint is tough. I still just don't see them being not good, at least around 500 i just think that there's enough of a foundation there and there are better players than what we had you know kind of scrambling there at the end uh the year before so i feel like they'll still be in the mix gonna get rolled by

the bills in that division for sure while everyone else improves i mean they won seven games with a quarterback who threw eight touchdowns in 2020. And then they won 10 games in the bills division with a rookie quarterback, like Belichick. He may not. We always ask the question, does he matter more than Tom Brady? He doesn't, but he matters. Like it's, it's not Twitter where everything has to be black and white. There's a gray area, and both absolutely matter. And so, yes, if they can figure some things out, open up the offense more,

because they still run a prehistoric offense, then, yes, that's what favors them. It just sucks to see them draw, thinking they could improve to draw a terrible schedule every way you look at it. Yeah, I agree. There's going to be some wild games this year where I think they're still going to try and run the ball, run run a prehistoric offense but there's some wild games where that's

what they go in with and then end up having just throw the ball like 40 times and like one of those receivers or running backs like whatever passing your running back is just gonna crush um and find out who that is is gonna be very interesting um i do have i do have another i guess like one two more teams uh potentially to talk about bring it up yeah go ahead go for it no i'm just going to quickly add um what makes what makes it so stupid about their backfield too trying to figure out for fantasy is that now all these guys do different things like they all excel in one area where the other three individuals do not excel which means they're all gonna play everyone

always pipe dreams a three down running back in the patriots whether it's stevenson uh damian harris last year but no we drafted damian harris because we knew he had double digit touchdown upside since the patriots vacated a league high and carries inside the five yard line once cam newton left and again you can find all these stats at four for four right now and the available carries tracker i keep up with throughout the offseason for that reason uh remandre stevenson filled in behind damian harris and then no one offered what james white did who averaged 14 fantasy points per game in the two games two full games he played with mac jones no one offered what he did that's which is why they also brought in brandon bolden to basically play special teams and pass catching back but now now you have Pierre Strong added to it,

who 76 of his 267 career carries went for 15 plus yards. None of them offered that type of explosiveness. So we are going to see all four guys play this year and it's going to be a disaster. It's going to be a disaster for fantasy anyway. It's going to be a disaster. Yeah, no doubt.

Connor, what team you got, bud? So I think the market is just way way higher than i am on the raiders um so they have an eight we've done this every single year we've had a show okay but now it goes further it goes further because so not only is there eight win total or eight and a half win total like i think a little bit high they play the third toughest strength of schedule they have like the sixth toughest net rest or something like

that with like uh you know, whatever, negative six. It's not super easy before they're by they play against the chargers, Arizona, Tennessee, Denver, and Kansas city all before they're by. But what's crazy is like they're favored in, in eight games. And I don't really know how I saw. I was like, okay, well, how is that possible? So I will look through the schedule. The Raiders are favored against the Cardinals.

They're favored. They're like, even against the, how is that possible? So I will look through the schedule. The Raiders are favored against the Cardinals. They're like even against the Titans. Pick them against the Broncos. They're like, they're just, pick them against the Saints, favored against like all these teams, the Colts, they're favored against the Colts. Like all teams that I would much rather be betting on than the Raiders.

And I don't know, like, am I crazy here? Like I just going to be shorting the Raiders all season on these lines because I think that they're like two to three points the wrong way. What do you think, JD? Don't really have any strong thoughts. I do think they improved the top half of their personnel. Whether Devontae Adams' 11 targets per game from Aaron Rodgers over his career carry over with Derek Carr remains to be seen,

although I do think they have immaculate rapport from Fresno. But to get Yannick Ngakwe at all as well, these additions are incredible, but their depth, it's still basically what Mayock and John Gruden laid down. And as Bill Parcells said, he was much more worried about the 53rd man on his roster than the first one,

because like those guys matter late into the year and he was building for 16 game seasons. And so I don't, I worry about their depth overall, which means one injury, they're now throwing in a player who opposing teams will just target at every chance. And so, yeah, that's why I think they're a weaker team than perceived. I i think overall depth does uh become a problem for

them eventually they did what everyone in the afc west is essentially required to do which is get bookend edge rushers that are a real problem by going out on the defensive side now like chandler jones to max crosby which is interesting because again that seems to be the thing in the AFC West. So, again, to Diego's point, one injury away, and that defense is fairly average again, you know, probably overperformed at times late in the season last year, but it was not a unit that we were ever really, you know, making any decisions on based off of any personnel there.

So not super into the Raiders, but, again, I also feel like I want to, you know, I'm interested in what happens with the coaching staff there and moving on from priors again, just because we've been wrong on them. Doesn't mean we need to again, adjust it. It's a, it's his own thing. So Diggle, another team for you. That is it for me. My team, my team is Luca in five minutes. So whatever Connor has to say is just fine. What you got, buddy?

I guess last one here that I thought was interesting was Texans play like the fifth toughest strength of schedule. They have the third hardest schedule in terms of rest, like third amount of least rest. I don't know. I think they got better. I mean, I think the Davis Mills is probably better than what we thought he was. He played just an absolute murderous row of defenses and secondaries. He played against like six or seven of the top 10 secondary in terms of DVOA last season. And as soon as he kind of got out of that and got back on his feet, he played pretty well towards the end of the year playing against some like worst defenses. Now that being said, you know, I don't really know how good he is overall, but the window is four and a half. So I'm certainly not leaping about the over, uh, by any means, but now you have the tough, like top five toughest schedule,

top five toughest rest with a team that still is pretty talent deficient, uh, top to bottom. So I don't know if you guys have any takes on them or kind of waiting and seeing in the season there. Yeah. If you basically from the time he was injured to when he came back, once he came back from injury, recall he got injured yet again, but then returned the following week. So if you just basically say those five final starts he made to close the year,

average 250 yards per game and had 11 touchdowns of three picks like that's pretty great um but remember they also had a league average defense last year like they were getting by on good surprisingly good defense it's just that their offense wasn't carrying their own weight because they didn't have much talent around brandon cooks and the fact brandon cooks then missed a few games did not help them in the least bit and so personnel wise they did get a little bit better i still just think the fact that the colts got astronomically better by improving the most important position on the field and then also for the titans just like i understand they were a fluke of a number one seed but it's still very

good coaching they never put talent out there really on the defense side of the ball and they're secondary and Braybill still coaches up that secondary to be at least league average every single year it's still a a tough I guess tough's not the word but relatively for all the AFC South teams it's still a tough division for the Texans so I don't I don't want to go overweight on any Texans' bets. But Davis Mills did play better than expected. And their interconference stuff, they get the AFC West, which we know is a daunting task. NFC East as well, a little bit easier,

but I think we think that all those teams are maybe a couple of playoff teams, and then the other bottom teams there have probably taken some steps to at least improve a little bit. So lovey Smith can coach up against an offense like the Eagles, but like never forget that game where he had to play the Rams and they were hosting them. I think I recall correctly as well. And the, the first drive,

you just see the Vietnam white in his eyes because he had never seen a Sean McVay offense before. This dude running cover two was not prepared in the slightest for Matthew Stafford and a McVay offense. That motion pre-snapped every single down. So I still think they're just, you know, they're still just the Texans. It's whatever. He'll be in position to answer the question on Davis Mills here in a big,

big way with, with some quarterbacks at the top of the board next year in the draft. So not the worst quarterback in the league. That's a plus. It is a plus probably like probably league average. That's pretty good. Yeah. I think the worst one might be on the jets,

but that'll be another topic for another day. So we'll see. So, all right, gentlemen, that wraps it up. Appreciate it. What are you guys working on? on the site daigle that the folks need to know about a ton i'm working on but also the current ongoing schedule makes it tough to get it

out so i keep promising best ball tears i'm pretty sure it's happening on monday i'm pretty sure that's when they start rolling out uh but they are being worked on behind the scenes so i would just say tune in to our projections as i mentioned t, T.G. Hernandez not only put out a six-column, what do we want to call it, a six-column masterpiece over best ball mania strategy, but also came on the most accurate podcast last week to walk us through it via conversation. So we had that conversation and at the end unveiled

basically the route we should all take when building for large field best ball tournaments and underdogs specifically and that's what's happening right now at the site i recommend you got to make a bet with tj tj big warriors fan so you know might make one of those like city type bets like we have a tentative one if it gets to a warrior celtics uh finals he going to have to give me seafood and I'm going to buy him a weed and tetanus shots. So, you know,

you figure it out, whatever's local to you in Texas that you think is really important. What is, what is Chicago? I will, I will, I will rob him. The Mavericks make the final. man that's good that was good well played

uh connor now you're full time and you have all your all this time on your hands to uh to do this with me but again congratulations i'm super stoked uh what are you working on um i've been kind of like updating some bets um you know tweeting all day via our social media account um i'm adding a bunch of tools so we actually just added an awesome player prop finder tool Updating some bets, tweeting all day via our social media account. I'm adding a bunch of tools. So we actually just added an awesome player prop finder tool at the site where you can search any player prop. And it'll give you all of the different odds. I mean, I'm stoked to use this more officially.

You and I were bootlegging this last year. But now we have it officially on our site. It is great. You can literally search any prop player from any sport and get all their props across all the books. So we definitely recommend checking that out. And it's a game changer for sure. It's a game changer. It really is. You can literally click on it and bet straight from there.

Like, I mean, it'll redirect you to the site, but it's a massive advantage. It is a great way to just kind of, I mean, I would use that thing, like you said, to bootleg to just refresh, refresh, refresh, refresh, waiting for props to drop and then being able to get on things quickly and to be able to have

one spot where I can look at where's the best of the number and run that versus our projections is a lifesaver in the prop game, knowing that these things can move so fast. So if I can get a 52 and a half yards when this has 55, because I could see it on the site real quick

and take action in real time, that matters. And it definitely matters over the course of a season. So highly, highly recommend that. As someone who worked news last year, I can tell you, you have about, in the NFL, three minutes, honestly, to get your bets in. So I suggest bookmarking the prop tool and then get ready for the regular season, because there is a little window where you can bet it if you're around.

And being in the discord, turn the notifications on for that as well is obviously advantageous and the best way to leverage a four for four betting sub. uh do that let us know get in the discord uh hit us up um we are available great way to just kind of bounce stuff off us uh during the season so gentlemen as always enjoy it uh so we will be back in the same spot next week uh so for connor and dave i'm ryan i'll see you soon thanks everyone