Move The Line - 2022 NFL Win Totals, Lookahead Lines, & How to Beat the Sportsbooks

Episode Date: June 9, 2022

Move The Line hosts Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, and John Daigle go over the most important topics in the world of sports betting! On this week's episode, the trio highlight 2022 NFL lookahead lines and implied win totals to dissect what the sportsbooks are trying to tell us about the 2022 NFL season.Timestamps: 0:00 Intro3:13 Leveraging Sportsbooks6:50 49ers 2022 Win Totals 9:35 Vikings 2022 Win Totals13:48 Eagles 2022 Win Totals17:16 Bears 2022 Win Totals19:21 Packers 2022 Win Totals25:11 Bills 2022 Win Totals26:50 Bucs 2022 Win Totals29:30 Panthers 2022 Win Totals32:10 Ravens 2022 Win Totals38:11 Scheduling Quirks of Notes40:14 OutroMove The Line is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. New users who sign up for an account using promo code 4FOR4 will get a Risk-Free first bet (up to $1,000) 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/FanDuelHosts: Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, John Daigle, Move the LineFollow Us On:TwitterFacebookYouTubeDiscord 4for4 NFL Draft Odds & Betting TrackerMove the Line Bets Tracker Get a FREE 4for4 Pro Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit)Want a FREE 4for4 Betting Subscription? Deposit $10 into a new BetMGM account using promo code 4FOR4 👉🏼 https://4for4.com/go/BetMGMGet a FREE 4for4 Pro Sub & Bonus Deposit Match up to $100 with Promo Code 4FOR4 on Underdog Fantasy (Minimum $10 deposit) 👉🏼 https://4for4.co/3wtvfuhEmail: [e-mail]

Hello and welcome to Move the Line presented by FanDuel. Promo code 444. New users can take advantage of FanDuel's risk-free first bet. You get $1,000 back if you don't win you download the fan duel sportsbook app today enter our promo code 444 to take advantage i'm ryan noonan noonan joined here as always by my friends first connor allen connor you are uh a man of of the people uh you know you're traveling you're getting wedding ready for a wedding big things going on up there but you're still here in the spot with Daigle and I to talk some football in June so what's going on

buddy not much I actually had to buy a hot spot on the way up here because there is no service in this place so we're you know if I cut out randomly or start glitching then that's why my my random T-Mobile hotpot did not come through. But so far, so good. I've worked all week on it, so it's been pretty solid. Diggle, did you know that this is a big thing? He brought his clubs up there to get some reps. So we're starting to get like – we're getting there.

This is good. I took picture evidence and sent it to Noonan too. I was going to send it to you, Diggle, but I didn't think you'd believe me. I thought you'd think it's photoshopped or something you know so i made sure to verify it with noonan and uh it went well you know i i'm learning more every day you just gotta get over the fear of initially going out and playing by yourself unless you brought them to go to the range and not actually play uh like 18 hole i don't know what your intention was bringing the club,

but I'm proud of you nonetheless. Thanks. Yeah. I just went to the range, but I hit two buckets, two big buckets of balls, you know, learned how to use a driver.

So that was good. Just get some, just get some confidence. It gets a little scary when you're playing with strangers, but you'll realize most people that go out and play suck anyway. So it's okay. Dale and I are going out tomorrow morning as a two. So maybe we get paired with another random two, but

sometimes it's fun. You get paired with another random couple of guys, and sometimes it can make for a fun day. I go out and play by myself all the time. Everyone knows at sunrise. I get pissed when I get paired with people because I'm looking to get in and get out in an hour and a half. I don't have time to be sitting there for four hours. I go play to

meditate and practice not getting pissed every time I duff the hell out of a ball. It allows me to practice patience. So getting signed up with two other people, that means I'm in store for a fun morning. I don't have time for fun mornings. We might just go out by ourselves tomorrow because I think it's

a scramble. There's an event in the afternoon, which means people probably stayed away, Dagle. So we might be able to get out in two and not get paired. It's your birthday round also. I'm more than willing to accept that. I can take that on. Yeah. Well, either way, it's going to be a good time. It's going to be fun.

As always, fun to talk football no matter the time of the year. Connor put out a fantastic tweet that got a lot of steam and thought was a worthwhile topic to talk about today, kind of leveraging what we see out there from the book standpoint from a look at look at headlines uh standpoint and how to leverage that in the win total markets um look at lines are also a special place in my heart so i'm going to talk about a couple different quirks that are specific games but we want to kind of touch base on and go a little bit deeper into the details of the tweet that con had around leveraging the number of, you know,

implied wins versus the number of games a team is favored versus what the, you know, the biggest win total line is for the team. So Connor, get us started, kind of talk about the process and how we can kind of get into the show. Yeah, so essentially sports books like DraftKings and the Westgate Superbook released spreads and totals for all 18 weeks. And I think that a lot of times when we're betting win totals, you know, like we don't really realize that they're not always aligned with the spreads and totals on a week-to-week basis. So we see a team with, you know, really low win total, and then they come into the season and they're only like, you know, two, three point dogs in a couple of games early on. And you're like, oh man, this team is not going to be that bad. And then vice versa, where you see a good team and they're only a couple of point favorites,

you know, pretty much every week. And you're like, oh man, how is this team going to sweep over their 10 and a half, 11 point win total? So kind of taking that property and looking at all the spreads, you know, just to calculate an implied wins. I'll go through really quick here. I basically looked at every spread from every single game and converted that to a win probability using a historical model. So basically week one, we'll use it as an example here. basically looked at every spread from every single game and converted that to a win probability using a historical model. So basically week one, we'll use it as an example here. 49ers are six and a half point favorites over the Chicago Bears. That leads to a 70% implied win probability using the model that I use. And so for that, the 49ers will get 0.7 of a win and the Bears will

get 0.3 of a win. It's not a perfect model because obviously in real life, you know, wins are binary. You either get it or you don't. But at the same time, you know, this is kind of a good way to see like where a team is overall. And that's kind of how sports books do it as well. Like they use a lot of this stuff is reflected early in the market to kind of see basically where they're at in terms of the team and like kind of how they weigh a team in the market. So you look at that. And as you mentioned, the number of times a team is favored is also very important.

So a great example is a team like the Houston Texans, the wind total four and a half, you know, people are expecting them to maybe take a step forward with, you know, Davis mills coming back. They added a few good pieces. They're actually favored in zero games this season. So how much confidence do you really want to have a team in a team that's favored in no games? So it's things like that that we'll go through in this episode. And we have a couple, I think good teams here to go through that are important with pretty big discrepancies in their

win total versus their implied wins versus the games that they're favored in. Dagle, as far as the future market, I know you're probably more like me. I don't think that we go too heavy as far as allocating budgets to season-long props, really, whether it's season-long props or future bets or those things. Season-long props, I actually do probably a little bit more even than future bets, at least I did last year. Talk to me about this process. Is this something that is interesting to you from a, like, I feel like there's an edge here to get down on, or what are your thoughts? I like to phrase it as we are Bill Belichick and we put players in position of strength only. And that's why we allow Connor to run the betting discord

and do these items because he pays much more attention to it than you and I do. I am locked into fantasy and win loss records and how I think teams will fare, which does overlap with this work, but the actual modeling of win loss records and what other books are doing, I don't get tuned in really until August or September when I actually need to start worrying about lines for DFS purposes. So it's good to be locked in right now, and that's why I appreciate the work Condor's doing. Love it.

So let's get started, Conor. We'll start with the first team we have here with the Niners. Middle of the pack from a strength of schedule standpoint we did a show a couple weeks ago around uh the schedule and rest advantages they are uh plus three from a net rest advantage so that a little bit of an advantageous situation for them there we have debo uh we had reported to minicamp that appears to be a non-story moving forward we know at the end of the day though as far as betting into a 49ers market it's really around your trust in the quarterback situation or really having any

understanding about what's going to happen here again you'll get these reports at this time of the year that trey lance looked good of course there's no competition jimmy g still dealing with a shoulder injury he wasn't even there to compete with trey lance but uh the niners kind of stick out a little bit here. Yeah, so their win total right now is 9.5 with some juice on the over, minus 140 over at BetMGM. But they're actually favored in 13 games this season with a 10.1 implied win. So essentially, you know, on a week-to-week basis, we kind of look at who they're playing against.

I mean, they're favored in almost every single game. They're actually only 3.5-point underdogs is like their biggest underdog the entire season that's at the Rams, which, you know, we've already seen in the past seasons already like upset outright. So I don't think that like, you know, as much as we want to say they have the fourth toughest strength of schedule and, you know, their net rest is pretty much even. I think it's a little bit positive. We've looked at from that angle, from a market perspective, like from what the spreads are telling us, I mean, they're still favored in 13 games. They're going to be in a lot of close games here. If Trey Lance proves to be, I mean, at least competent. I mean, we're looking at a team that I think should easily win 10 plus

games, but again, I think that's a big question. So I'm not running to bet the 49ers, but I think that they're a little bit more volatile than we have in our minds from that we've gotten just from a macro perspective, looking at some of the other kind of metrics that we've looked at. It certainly helps that they play in the worst conference among the two. Also, the recent news of Alex Mack retiring is quite shocking, only at 37, and it matters because Pro Football Focus graded San Francisco eighth overall in pass blocking last year and second overall and run blocking. And Alex Mack actually graded as the league's 12th highest center soaking up a hundred percent of the team's regular season snaps last year. So

it's not like someone who didn't make an impact, they have to replace all of a sudden. It's one of the most important positions in football with a rookie quarterback who struggled through the air in his lone two starts. So volatile is the correct word I would use as well, but I still believe they are the second, third best team. And I guess the book suggests that as well, but again, the bottom could fall out here if all goes wrong. The first of three NFC North teams here, we have the Vikings. They are pretty neutral as far as strength of schedule, both in terms of net rest and overall schedule.

Obviously, a new coaching staff coming in. Some nice additions on the defensive side as well. Z'Darrius Smith is a nice signing for them. If Danielle Hunter can stay healthy and stay on the field, both of them have played very little in the past two seasons. That gives them a very nice bookend pass rush. And then again, we have, as I mentioned at the top, Kevin O'Connell coming over from the Rams.

We should expect a little bit more pace from the Vikings, probably a little bit more of a spike from a run-pass split standpoint. That should help here some of the skill position players as we get into the prop market. But Connor, talk to me about the Vikings. Yeah, this is another team that is favored in way more games than their win total. So their win total right now is 8.5. There's a little bit of juice towards the over.

Minus 120 on points bet is the best odds. They're favorites in 12 games this season, which I find pretty surprising. You know, I'm not super bullish on the Vikings. Again, from a macro perspective, if you look at it like that, I think it's very notable. And not to mention, they're only underdogs of more than a touchdown once all season, and that's on the road against the Bills in Week 10. So essentially, you're looking at basically every game is winnable, and they're favorites in 12 of those games.

So I think that, I mean, it's interesting to be bullish on this team. Obviously, I think their biggest upgrade comes in the form of a new coaching staff, Kevin O'Connell from the Rams. I think they're able to kind of transform this offense a little bit, hopefully elevate some of the passing options and just the offense of a new coaching staff, Kevin O'Connell from the Rams, I think are able to kind of transform this offense a little bit, hopefully elevate some of the passing options and just the offense as a whole. So I think it's okay to be bullish on the Vikings just from kind of that perspective here because the market seems to be a little bit disingenuous with their win total versus their implied wins of 9.1 and the number of times they're favored, which is 12th.

For all the reasons Connor mentioned too, I think their defense improved, but also they do not have the best player in the division. That goes to the Packers and Aaron Rodgers, but having the better team after the Packers lost multiple pieces and have to, as we'll speak on later, catch a couple of rookies up very quickly in their starting lineup, they actually might be the best team in that division. I think that's something worth betting on,

especially since all the reports you hear at OTAs right now are that this offense is both aggressive and creative. Adam Thielen and Kirk Cousins in particular are apparently taking flashcards back to their hotel rooms and just constantly going back over everything with one another because the phrasing, the terminology in this offense is just far more complicated than anything prehistoric Mike Zimmer could have ever even begun to think of. So I'm excited to see what this team can do. And they're

probably an offense, honestly, that takes a month, six weeks to get it all clicking. But once everything becomes familiar behind the line of scrimmage and they can show up and know exactly what to do based on what the defense gives them, I think they're going to be super explosive this year. Yeah, they're interesting to me for sure, because I do think that there are, as you mentioned, Daniel, there are so many questions going on with the Packers that we don't really feel strongly about the Bears. I think a lot of people think that the Lions are ascending, but when you're ascending from where they're starting from, there's still a large gap for them to make up.

Whereas the Vikings have been kind of on the precipice of the playoffs for a number of years. And there's a lot of turnover from year to year that that makes a lot of sense. I think we think we get Justin Jefferson in a more up-tempo, you know, option that's an offense that's going to play more 11 and do a lot more things that are just more forward thinking than what we've seen from the

years past. I think it's hard not to be bullish on the Vikings. Again, the defensive pieces, they need to stay healthy but again uh there are there's upside here baked into the numbers based off of what connor is highlighting here you can choose your battles throughout during segments of the offseason and so while i actually have justin jefferson as my redraft wide receiver one over Cooper Cup for many reasons I'll write later on, in our recent best ball tiers that are on the site right now at 444.com, I did not pick that battle since, again, it helps to have skin in the game.

I can get Justin Jefferson at like the 6th or 7th pick sometimes, but you can never get Cooper Cup at the 6th or 7th pick. So just take your portfolio and your exposure whenever you can, wherever you can. So right now it's more important actually to get Cooper Cup with one of those top three picks. But overall, I do expect Justin Jefferson to be this year's Cooper Cup. Love it. Love it.

Eagles are a team that we've talked about often and difficult to not be optimistic considering the off season that they've had. Continued growth in Jalen Hurts is obviously, like we talked about, the Niners, the centerpiece here, if they're going to continue to ascend. But they put together a nice roster, both sides of the football here. They exceeded expectations, I think, in a pretty massive way last year. It's going to be hard to exceed them, again, considering that they are at a very different stage.

But they seem to be possibly a buy in the market when we look at strength of schedule net rest connor they second easiest strength of schedule and uh net rest is is pretty much a wash there negative two but nothing substantial but from a favorite game standpoint they seem to be a buy yeah i mean right now we got in early so we took the over at eight and a half wins we also took them to win the division at plus 275 plus 250 now we're looking at nine and a half with i mean about even money on the over which i still lean towards and then the division price now the best price is plus 210 d drafting is actually all the way down to plus 165 which i think is about right um but as you we've talked about them you know all the time on this show basically almost every week

now let's make great moves in the offseason. They're favorites now in 12 games this season. And also their implied wins is right around 9.5 at this point. So, I mean, again, 8.5 was just the wrong number. Hopefully you got in there. I would still lean over on 9.5 too because, as you mentioned, their schedule is easy. They're going to be favorites in almost every single game.

So I think that the oversold play, it's still very easy to be bullish on the Eagles. To recap what has happened in draft, just in case people are just catching up, Howie Roseman the past two years traded a top 10 pick and Carson Wentz for AJ Brown, Heisman winner, Devonta Smith, the most athletic defensive tackle in combine history in Jordan Davis, an extra first round pick in 2023, and a second round pick in 2024. I genuinely don't know what's going to happen to this team this year, given how quickly I believe the Giants front office

and the roots of all their problems in the past turned around. Also, we've talked about on past episodes, how easy, how rigged the NFL made the Cowboys schedule this year. And so I don't know what happens in 2022 for the Eagles. I think they're a volatile team as well, but I do know they have more than enough capital to take shots next season as a perennial contender in 2023, no matter what Jalen Hurts does. They give them this year though, at least to develop and see what happens from there So overall I think they're in a tremendous position It just may not return And show that in 2022

Yeah they have a couple of The quirks here in the schedule They play three straight road games From week 14 to week 16 The last is on the road in Dallas On a Saturday After playing Sunday night So not only is it a short week from a Sunday to Saturday standpoint,

it's a night game. So that on top of it being the last, the third of the three straight road games, that is a really tough spot for the Eagles in a game that we would assume, based off of what we know sitting here early June, is going to be a game that matters. So Philly is a three to three and a half point dog in most spots. Week 17 is a home game against the Saints. That's a tough spot for the Eagles. So again, do I advise you getting down substantial? You probably can't get down a substantial amount, to be honest, in a week 16

game. But that seems to be a trouble spot for the Eagles when forecasting out from a look ahead standpoint. Next is another team we've talked about at length, the Chicago Bears. Not much to add here specifically with the Bears. Lots of concerns, lots of holes in the roster in the number of games favored here, Connor, or not doing them any favors either. Yeah, so right now their win total, again, this is another thing that we got down in our bet tracker. Under seven wins we took for the Bears.

The over-under is now sitting at six and a half. They're favored in just two games this season. I think that even might be too rich. But, again, if you look at the schedule, there are some easier games against teams like the Texans and Falcons. They play some other bottom-tier teams that I think are winnable games. That way I don't think the bottom, they're probably not going to win like no games or even two games,

but at the end of the day, they're only favored in two. So it's really tough to envision much upside here and kind of look, looking at like where their spread lies. A lot of times, I think it's 10 of 17 games are actually within a touchdown or more, you know, kind of either way.

So I think that they're going to be in a decent amount of games, but it's just a matter of whether or not they're able to execute and kind of have any semblance of an offense or even defense at this point. They just keep like everything that we keep finding just keeps digging their grave like deeper and deeper, at least in my opinion. Six and a half is still wild to me. I'm shocked it hasn't moved up that number

and gone closer to the Texans overall. I don't know if the Bears win seven games if they're allowed to play 34 this year. I don't know if the Bears win seven games if they're allowed to play 34 this year. So very easily under six and a half for me. I need to go. I'm told I'm supposed to hug things in discord that I'm betting with. I'm learning as we move along here as an employee. So I will go hug that bet for everyone there. Love it. It is a group hug for sure on the Bears. I'm a jiggle. I just don't, I don't see it.

I don't see, I know that there, there's some upside there with Justin Fields. I think he's going to be exciting. I'm still holding out hope for him as just a fan of his, but man, it's going to be tough sledding for the Bears. The last of the NFC North teams here is the green bay packers they are um as we pointed out from a rest standpoint they have the worst net rest in league at 12 days which is rough uh middle of the pack from a strength of schedule standpoint but again vegas still likes them quite a bit uh it is going to be difficult to get a feel for this team from a fantasy perspective i'm interested to hear dago's thoughts on this a little bit too, because they have been one of the slowest paced teams

over the last handful of years, but they've been able to make up for it through efficiency. And you can kind of make up for a lack of plays by staying on the field more, obviously more first downs, more plays, but they are, you would assume going to be a more run heavy team because Devante Adams loss is going to impact the efficiency here. They seem to be built for, you know, protecting that a little bit more hiding some of those guys on the outside and leveraging the two headed monster they have in the backfield. But Connor get us started here as far as what Vegas thinks.

Yeah. So their win total right now is 10 and a half. As you mentioned that the schedule is pretty middle of the road. It's like 13th and straight to schedule. But they actually have the least net rest in the season. And their implied wins is right around 10.5 as well. They're favored in 15 games. So I think this is one of those rare scenarios where I think we're going to actually have opportunities in season to, or via look-ahead lines, to fade the Packers.

Because there is no way that with that little rest and with you know the offense i mean the pass catchers there just i mean a disaster i think at this point you're looking like alan lazard sammy watkins i don't think christian watson is really even going to play a sizable role we also that's another bet that we took is his under on 700 yards that's down to like 615 i'd still lean under at that point but i i'm just really struggling to find how this team should be favored in 15 games unless they're playing the easiest strength of schedule in the league, which they're not. So I think there's going to be some opportunities to buy

on the opposite teams of the Packers. Obviously not the Bears, but we'll see some other opportunities, I think, pop up. They're still clearly being favored as being last year's Packers with Devontae Adams. That's the issue here, especially because we know they are going to transition to more of a run-heavy, defensively schemed, and hopefully good defense team this year.

A.J. Dillon already has workload ramped up, out-touching Aaron Jones inside the red zone 21-8 in their last five games together last year. And as we know, in seven career games without Devontae Adams, Aaron Jones has had no choice but to be used as a receiver. He's averaged an increased 26 fantasy points per game and six and a half targets and five catches per game in those starts. So I expect both of them to actually be on the field together,

a la that game against the 49ers in the postseason last year where both of them did have success. Also, that's why in trying to be a defensive team without Devontae Adams and changing their profile entirely, that's why they passed on two first-round receivers and instead leaned on an athletic linebacker in Quay Walker and defensive tackle Devontae Wyatt, who even in already being 24, was an elite run start at Georgia. So fully expecting them to try to plug the run,

which they couldn't do last year. Yes, because they ran the fourth highest rate of light boxes, six man boxes, the entire league, but also they did that because they didn't have the personnel, whereas they do this year. And so fully expecting their defense and schemes to change,

probably making them an even slower team. That's going to be rough. I have a few little schedule game quirks here for the Packers. We have another team here with three straight road games, and there's a lot of travel. This is kind of where the net rest, I think, plays itself out the most. Three straight road games, week seven, eight, and nine. Last is nine in Detroit.

The Packers are six-point favorites there. Week 10 is, you could say, a look-ahead spot at home against Dallas. But it gets even worse. Six of the first nine on the road. It's really tough. They declined the post-London bye in place of a late-season bye, which we saw last year happen one time with the Dolphins. And this was a spot that I wanted to attack last year.

We're kind of going back to it. And I kind of get doing that when you see yourself as a playoff team. You want to get that late season by instead of the early one. But it's actually interesting. We have three London games this year. So six teams that are making the trip. Denver is the only team

that's taking the bye the following week. All five of the other teams are passing it for down the line. They all have home games, so it's not too bad. But again, that schedule, that tends to bite you at some point. And here's where it's going to bite the Packers. Week eight, the middle of that road trip, they are on the road in Buffalo. They are on the road

in Buffalo. Buffalo is fresh off of a bye. So it's a major part of the net rest disadvantage for them. So again, they are coming off of a London trip, a home game, and then this is the second, a third of three straight road games. The bills are just minus four right now in the marketplace. There's no way that's not seven come kickoff. Again, regardless of what I think that happens with the Packers, that's going to be at least six, six and a half. I think it gets to seven. So if you can get down on the bills week eight minus four on the Packers, that'll be the, what I did last year with the bills against the dolphins Connor,

but I think I bet that three times before we even got to week nine when they actually rolled, but Miami by like 27 points. Oh yeah. No, that's, that's a great look. I like that a lot. I was, I actually think that Westgate is floating a three and a half as well if you're out in Vegas. So, I mean anything, I actually think that Westgate is floating a three and a half as well if you're out in Vegas. So, I mean, anything – yeah, I think, like you said, I think it probably closes towards six once people kind of start realizing just how much of a disadvantage you are. I mean, just the jet lag alone is brutal,

not to mention going to play the Bills on the road brings its own disadvantage as well. Yeah, tough spot. Bills off a bye hosting the Packers who just continue to travel. So a tough spot for them. Next week, we can move on to the Bills. Obviously a team that we have massive expectations on and the market does as well, Connor. Yeah. So their win total is 11 and a half. They're actually favored in 15 games this season, but the other two games are a pick-em. So they're technically, if we want to rephrase it, they're not an underdog in a single game this entire season, which is pretty wild,

but I think they're worthy of it. I mean, their implied wins currently lines up with their actual wins, but again, kind of part of the issue with the process is they're not getting full credit for a win in the implied wins process where they're only getting like 80% even though they're favored by 10 and they're like almost certainly going to win uh and so that's kind of one of the major flaws with it is that the teams at the extremes usually don't end up being that bad it's kind of the teams in the middle that you're able to find out more for so even though this team has a similar implied wins they're favored in 15 games they're underdogs and none and i think that the bills are actually a decent over about, even at 11 and a half wins.

I completely agree. It's just an odd situation because they did return every piece of personnel that matters. And so you really don't expect them anything to change. But the tougher schedule and really the most impactful move, the loss of Brian Dable, I don't know what happens if it's significant, if it does make an impact in season, if they start slower, if they start faster.

And so just really interested to see more than anything what the transition to Ken Dorsey does, if it does anything at all. Yep, that's going to be something to watch. But I think I like having the continuity there. And again, he was there, so that helps too. Obviously sliding into that role, some big shoes to fill is going to be interesting uh to watch so uh next is the bucks similar where you have a lot of continuity but you have a couple of major changes connor um may seem to be another team similar to the bills that are uh favored in almost every game they play yep they are favorites

in 16 games and underdogs in zero they are pick a pick them on the road against the Niners. And that's the only game that they are not favored in. And again, I think that that's a game that they could very easily be favored in if the Niners do not pan out down the road. And so they also have the fifth most net rest in the league projected to play the 12th easiest strength of schedule according to potent win totals. I mean,

I bet I unloaded a lot of my credit as soon as Brady came back on any Bucs division, any Bucs NFC. But again, I think that at this point, you're probably able to double down on an over. I just think that the way that their schedule is setting up, their division is really easy. The more that we start to analyze it, their schedule is easy. They have a rest advantage. And again, they're fair. It's in almost every single game. So I think that 11 and ahalf is probably fair, but I still lean towards the over here, towards 12 or 13 wins. They won't miss a beat without Bruce Arian's coaching

going to Todd Bowles whatsoever. I'm fully expecting Rob Gronkowski to join the team in trading camp. There's no need for him to be there at OTAs. He's too old. He's too much of a veteran. He does not need to be there working out the team when he can work out on his own, just like so many veterans have done over the years. Not only that, but Brady, even in being in the league 20 plus years to just recently,

just this past year, average a career high 42 pass attempts per game. That's what their offense is going to be. It's going to be an engine led by Brady and Leonard Fournette. And that's basically it. If Chris Godwin isn't healthy, whatever. You have Russell Gage, who ran himself into becoming a terrific player with over two yards per route run in his last nine starts without Calvin Ridley from the slot in particular,

where he would start in place of Godwin. Also, we saw for the first time in Mike Evans' career in the postseason, although the team overall didn't have a success, we've talked about that in the past, with Brady averaging six and a half yards per attempt because he looked around and didn't have Godwin, Antonio Brown, or Leonard Fournette in the postseason, but they at least showed they would move Mike Evans to the slot on 27% of his snaps and jam him 26 targets total against Darius Slay and Jalen Ramsey in the playoffs.

So overall, nothing matters here. This team is going to be just fine and already penciled them in for an NFC Conference Championship appearance, and they'll coin flip against the Rams or 49ers, and we'll go from there. Conference is just so bad. So bad.

Yeah. I think outside of a Brady injury, it's going to be hard to not have them in the mix, regardless of variance. Like you said, there's continuity across the board and a lot of other places there. And I think that they'll be absolutely fine. Panthers have a lot of questions. I'm hoping to get a lot out of their young defense, which they invested a lot of draft capital in a couple of years ago. Again, as is the theme constantly, quarterback play at the end of the day. Connor, what are your thoughts here on the

Panthers? Yeah, right now their win total is sitting at just five and a half, but they're only favored in two games. I mean, I think they're just in serious trouble here. Again, without their quarterback play, it's tough to envision, you know, how they're really able to overcome, you know, kind of, I mean, that biggest deficiency there, especially now they fired Joe Brady, they brought in Ben McAdoo's, you know, Daigle's man there. And, you know, I think that there could be some upside. I've just, I'm not really sold on the team as a whole. And that at five and a half, only being favored in two games, I'm staying away, even though their implied win is 6.4. It's like nearly a full win above, you know, their win total here. And that's, it is partially because there's projected to play in a lot of like close-ish

games, yet the win total is only five and a half so i think that the win total is actually like this is one of those situations where the market is telling us they're probably like a six win team according to the market but the win total because everyone knows that quarterback is so much more of a problem and could be like i mean this team could be a one to two win team if everything goes wrong but they're kind of like almost overcompensating for that and so i don't know i think it's a stay away at the five and a half win total but it's certainly a team that we can look to fade in season. If the market's a little bit too high on them on a week to week basis. The visionary is my man, but also we have evidence of what this team is going to do and how bad they are under center. Panthers ranked 32nd

and completion percentage as a team, 58% last year, 31st in touchdown rate and 31st in yards per attempt, averaging just six yards per attempt through the air among all their quarterbacks. We also know no wide receiver with at least 100 targets saw more uncatchable targets than Robbie Anderson, despite being on the field and wide open at times. And then DJ Morris strung together three consecutive seasons with 1,200 receiving yards and at least 24 red

zone targets in that span, but has not eclipsed four touchdowns in any season yet. The issues continue to pile through their quarterback, and they did absolutely nothing except draft Matt Corral, a project in my opinion, in the third round. So really it hinges on, is Matt Corral ready to play against NFL defenses? And if so, maybe this team has some upside, but that's volatility I'm more than willing to bet against. And Matt Corral was not at minicamp last week. I think family matter, but like, again, it just doesn't help to not have the reps,

a guy like this that he's going to need every rep possible to come in and try to grab any chance to get that job. He's going to need them all. And he was not there. So T's and P's to the Panthers and their fans. The Ravens looking to bounce back after a very difficult last year. We've pointed out here previously, there are a million signs that the Ravens are returning to a run first offense last year,

mostly due to a ton of injuries on the defensive side of the football, especially in the back half. They were just a disaster in the secondary. Their 56% pass rate looks very different than the 43% of the previous two years. So I think they probably gel back to that. Again, they've spoke that way with some of the personnel moves too. They got four running backs. They added a center with one of their two first round picks um they added some other for like first day or second day offensive lineman daigle i think they're probably getting back there um what are your thoughts about uh kind of some of that stuff with the the ravens before we kick it to connor we talked about already a lot of what

happened with the ravens and you already mentioned defense crumbled, running backs crumbled, offensive line crumbled, and thus they went into jailbreak mode and had no choice but to force Lamar Jackson to drop back for a career-high 32-pass chance for game, which were five more than the average in any other season. Not what the Ravens want to do whatsoever. So I would imagine we get back to the same team

that ranked fourth in run play rate from neutral game script and back-to-back seasons. Also, bottom five in three consecutive years with Lamar Jackson and running back targets. Like, they are only going to go to Mark Andrews and now Rashad Bateman. That's it through the air. And instead pile on with carries through Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, and Gus Edwards. So overall, I think we know what we should expect from them. It's just as long as Lamar Jackson is eyeing a contract year and trying to get one of those massive extensions

that everyone else is receiving around him. So overall, I am expecting everyone to bounce back, assuming they're healthy. And again, I don't think the downgrade... Patrick Graham is their DC, correct? Yeah, I don't think the the downgrade patrick graham is their dc correct yeah i don't i don't think it's actually as much as i love wing martindale i don't think it's a downgrade necessarily from play calling from wing martindale to patrick graham who i had all the respect for who was basically holding the joe judge years together through his defense uh until it all

crumbled in year two and now as we saw this past offseason, the Giants just basically didn't want anyone that was involved with those past regimes at all. That's what's so funny is because we're also going to see Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones pretty much moved on next year, even though the Giants have to work with them this year. So overall, yeah, I absolutely believe

in probably the largest bounce back of any team for the Ravens. Yeah. They've been sexy in the early betting markets. Oh yeah. And I mean, so right now a win total nine and a half, their favorite in 13 games,

their implied win total is 9.9. I mean, I think that as you, for you mentioned for multiple reasons here, they're a team that's definitely in a bounce back and that we like a lot to bounce back. And I think that their outlook is actually only helped more and more by the Deshaun Watson issues that are coming up that it's kind of looking like he might face a pretty hefty

suspension. I would not be surprised anywhere from half a year to a full year to, I mean, anywhere, maybe if somehow he gets off, you know, with maybe a quarter of a year, but that seems like less and less likely. That's what I thought originally, but that's but I think we're looking at a lot more than that at this point, especially after kind of the latest allegations with more people being added on there. But at the same time here, this Ravens team are only underdogs by more than three points in one game, and that's at Tampa Bay.

So outside of that, you're looking at every game being winnable. And even then, I think that's a winnable game. They obviously just have to play like 95th percentile outcome Ravens team on the road in Tampa. But, you know, every other game is more than winnable, even with just above average effort, as you mentioned, they're likely to bounce back. So I think that them and the Bengals now with the Deshaun Watson saga, both of them are above two to one to win the division. So and now at this point, I mean, if we get any kind of news on that, or like kind of the buzz keeps starting to grow in terms of Watson probably facing some kind of hefty suspension, I think you can honestly, I mean, I don't really like to bet both and just tie up,

you know, like winning whatever, like double your money on something. But at the same time, I mean, I think you certainly could. So if you could pick the Ravens there, I think that that's probably a good play as well. I agree with the Ravens. I also think the hammer may be coming down to Sean Watson eventually since it only gets worse every single day. Also, though, very minute analysis. That probably doesn't matter except to like one person. But for the Bucs, if you're betting on that future,

just remember that Lamar Jackson is terrible against the Blitz and Todd Bowles sends the house every single game. Hence why I remember this vividly because I jumped to conclusions in that Thursday night primetime game against the Dolphins that were blitzing heavily and I forgot to make the connection and I bet on the Ravens and Survivor pools

and little did I remember that he was just going to get his head blitzed off. So that of course didn't matter they lost that game so just be wary anytime lamar jackson faces a blitz i remember that hailey um was not pretty also also like the week before which they played on sunday so short rest for three days rest uh they also ran 100 plays in that game so like i should have been off them already 100 freaking plays because they went to overtime. I think it was against the Titans. And then bounced around against the Blitz WT,

which is what stupid decision by me. Someone who actually turned me on to that, I think it's Ray Summerlin, actually. The great Ray Summerlin mentioned a trend that has just been cash money. It's like teams coming off an overtime game, playing on a short week, are like win against the spread like 20% of the time. It's like teams coming off an overtime game, playing on a short week are like win against

the spread, like 20% of the time. It's like a ridiculous rate. And it like actually makes a lot of sense. You know, it's something that logically makes sense and has proven results. So I don't know. It's, it's something that I guess is definitely something to look for in the future if it happens. Yeah. No, just not a lot of built in guaranteed options for it to happen every year. So definitely not. Yeah. Interesting. A couple of built-in guaranteed options for it to happen every year. Definitely not. Yeah, interesting. A couple other scheduling quirks that I thought were interesting. The Dolphins play three straight road games as well late in the season, which isn't great, last of which is in the division in Buffalo.

Bills are six-point favorites in that game. Again, another one you could see climb up to even seven, and then we're working around six and seven. Those are some fairly key numbers. Big game next week against Green Bay. And then poor Houston. Connor talked about at the top. They have a bad run here.

Three of their road games this year are against teams that are coming off a buy. They are the only team in the league that have to face three teams that are coming off their buy-in. All three of them are on the road, which is just absolutely brutal. So if you're looking for another reason to short the Texans, I think that that's a strong one. That's pretty bad net rest advantage and break as far as scheduling goes. You mentioned the Dolphins and I still, I go back and forth with that teams win loss

with Jalen Waddle with Tyreek Hill. Cause I do, we've mentioned this in the past. I do think they're going to be fun. I just don't know if that translate to wins. Like, I don't know if four, two speeds and hitting 20 miles per hour, every play translate to wins, uh, and translates to two actually being accurate. I have no clue. I was doing the best ball tiers, and Tyreek Hill,

like one thing I cited was wide receiver five and fantasy points per game from Alex Smith, a very similar situation. And we believe his final year with Alex Smith, and we believe that Tua's ceiling is higher than Alex Smith. But at the same time, he was 25 then. Now Tyreek's still going to be 30 and fresh off a career low in yards per outrun.

So I don't know. Like I really don't know if they bought high on him. I have, I have no idea. And it's going to be interesting to watch. I do think they're going to be fun. Um, that could be another situation where they need to gel and they may just be

one of those situations where the pieces make more sense than how it kind of plays itself out in. They're going to be more fun than the Patriots. Oh gosh. Not even close. Yeah. There'll be more fun than the Patriots. Patriots will, will even close. Yeah, they'll be more fun than the Patriots. Patriots will not be fun.

There might be a lot of things, but fun will not be one of those things. Dagle, what's going on on the site? What are the people need to follow in track? I've mentioned best ball tiers. Those are out on the site now for everyone. And then hopefully by end of week, by Monday max, we get exploiting default ADP for everyone playing best ball tournaments.

Just the players that our projections are higher and lower on. So you can take advantage of that at Sleeper, Underdog, Drafters, and FFPC. Connor, what's going on with you, buddy? Well, I'm a certified thread guy now. So you might be getting another thread for me in the next uh week or two who knows i mean the thing is i want to find information

that's actually useful before tweeting and not just like life advice and random crap that you know is just sounds condescending and all that so i'm going to try and avoid that and if i find any actual information i like then i might tweet in a thread because for some reason twitter's algorithm shows everyone all of your thread but won't show a great tweet. If it's just one tweet, you have to put some like douchey headline that I spent a certain amount of time researching something. And here are the results followed by 20 tweets rather than just two tweets that are awesome that say the exact same thing. So I don't know, whatever, I guess, play, hate the player, not the game or whatever, hate the game player not the game or whatever hate the game not the player whatever the saying is but

yeah so kind of look for that and then we got a divisional outlook as well with some odds tables that are nice the saying is you either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain that's the saying I'm a villain here we are it's related to the algorithms so

trying to hack all the social algorithms Connor Allen sorry we still love you so good stuff as always fellas It's related to the algorithms. So trying to hack all the social algorithms, Connor Allen. Sorry, we still love you. So good stuff as always, fellas. That was a good thread, Connor. Appreciate the content. We will be back to do it all again next Wednesday.

So for Dago and Connor, I'm Ryan. Go Celtics. We'll see you all soon. Yeah!